2026-08-19
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-19
Games: 15 | Plays: 5
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | August 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jackson Jobe Home: Paul Skenes
ERA: 6.23 ERA: 3.88
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 8.31 K/9: 11.09
BB/9: 2.08 BB/9: 2.47
FIP: 4.94 FIP: 2.81
IP: 8.7 IP: 134.7
xERA: 7.66 xERA: 3.13
xwOBA: 0.408 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET PIT Lg Avg
Record 61-65 62-66
R/Game 4.56 5.02 4.48
RA/Game 3.90 4.78 4.48
OPS 0.726 0.742 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.322 0.310
ERA 3.56 4.30 4.17
FIP 3.73 3.76 4.05
WHIP 1.21 1.32 1.30
K/9 8.34 9.34 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.571 0.522 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 3.77 4.24
BP FIP 4.31 3.67 4.09
BP WHIP 1.35 1.33
BP K/9 8.26 9.69
BP Quality* 47.3 47.1 46.4
BP IP 341.0 415.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Eduardo Valencia, Ben Malgeri, Riley Greene
Eduardo Valencia Designated Hitter OPS: 1.159 (58 AB)
Ben Malgeri Outfielder OPS: 0.833 (57 AB)
Riley Greene Outfielder OPS: 0.816 (422 AB)
Run Adjustment: 86.4% of full strength
PIT (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Endy Rodríguez, Ryan O'Hearn, Jake Mangum
Endy Rodríguez Catcher OPS: 0.840 (135 AB)
Ryan O'Hearn First Base OPS: 0.788 (359 AB)
Jake Mangum Outfielder OPS: 0.741 (345 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9824 (Temp: 1.0078 | Wind: 0.9748)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 3.2 - PIT 4.5
Simulated Avg: DET 3.2 - PIT 4.5
Win Probability: DET 36.0% - PIT 64.0%
Fair Moneyline: DET +178 / PIT -178
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.5: 39.8%
Under 8.5: 60.2%
DET +1.5: 53.5%
PIT -1.5: 46.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 1.6 - PIT 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 1.6 - PIT 2.4
F5 Win Prob: DET 33.6% - PIT 66.4% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +197 / PIT -197
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +142 +178 -5.4%
PIT ML -153 -178 +3.6%
DET +1.5 -157 -115 -7.6%
PIT -1.5 +130 +115 +3.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +7.8%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.2% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.8%
Fair ML: -151 | Kelly: 4.11%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01079
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
Regular Season | August 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael King Home: Robert Stock
ERA: 3.41 ERA: 6.57
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.86
K/9: 7.84 K/9: 9.49
BB/9: 3.54 BB/9: 5.84
FIP: 4.09 FIP: 3.99
IP: 142.3 IP: 12.3
xERA: 4.38 xERA: 5.08
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.344
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD NYM Lg Avg
Record 68-59 57-70
R/Game 4.26 4.15 4.48
RA/Game 4.22 4.50 4.48
OPS 0.705 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.05 4.08 4.17
FIP 4.04 3.86 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.28 9.08 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.504 0.463 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.82 4.18 4.24
BP FIP 2.99 4.32 4.09
BP WHIP 1.14 1.37
BP K/9 10.96 9.03
BP Quality* 35.9 51.8 46.4
BP IP 265.3 228.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jack Weisenburger (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Daniel Duarte (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nate Lavender (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Samad Taylor, Miguel Andujar, Gavin Sheets, Ramón Laureano
Samad Taylor Outfielder OPS: 0.808 (88 AB)
Miguel Andujar Designated Hitter OPS: 0.726 (239 AB)
Gavin Sheets First Base OPS: 0.709 (344 AB)
Ramón Laureano Outfielder OPS: 0.660 (182 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.7% of full strength
NYM (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Juan Soto, MJ Melendez
Juan Soto Outfielder OPS: 0.947 (293 AB)
MJ Melendez Designated Hitter OPS: 0.665 (120 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9919 (Temp: 1.0232 | Wind: 0.9694)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 4.4 - NYM 3.4
Simulated Avg: SD 4.4 - NYM 3.4
Win Probability: SD 60.3% - NYM 39.7%
Fair Moneyline: SD -152 / NYM +152
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.5: 40.0%
Under 8.5: 60.0%
SD -1.5: 42.7%
NYM +1.5: 57.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 2.5 - NYM 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.5 - NYM 2.0
F5 Win Prob: SD 59.0% - NYM 41.0% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SD -144 / NYM +144
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML -136 -152 +2.7%
NYM ML +126 +152 -4.5%
SD -1.5 +119 +134 -2.9%
NYM +1.5 -144 -134 -1.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +7.6%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.6%
Fair ML: -150 | Kelly: 4.01%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01080
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | August 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: AJ Smith-Shawver Home: Taj Bradley
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 3.98
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 8.31 K/9: 10.02
BB/9: 4.15 BB/9: 3.91
FIP: 2.63 FIP: 4.0
IP: 4.3 IP: 135.7
xERA: 6.67 xERA: 4.03
xwOBA: 0.386 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: ATL (AJ Smith-Shawver)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL MIN Lg Avg
Record 74-52 62-65
R/Game 4.78 4.61 4.48
RA/Game 3.89 4.95 4.48
OPS 0.727 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.314 0.310
ERA 3.65 4.62 4.17
FIP 4.01 4.18 4.05
WHIP 1.24 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.66 8.38 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.593 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.34 4.42 4.24
BP FIP 3.58 3.94 4.09
BP WHIP 1.17 1.42
BP K/9 9.28 8.61
BP Quality* 40.9 54.4 46.4
BP IP 380.0 555.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0218 (Temp: 1.0079 | Wind: 1.0138)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 5.1 - MIN 4.3
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.1 - MIN 4.3
Win Probability: ATL 56.8% - MIN 43.2%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -131 / MIN +131
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.5: 54.6%
Under 8.5: 45.4%
ATL -1.5: 41.4%
MIN +1.5: 58.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.6 - MIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.6 - MIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ATL 52.7% - MIN 47.3% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -112 / MIN +112
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -104 -131 +5.8%
MIN ML -104 +131 -7.7%
ATL -1.5 +146 +141 +0.8%
MIN +1.5 -177 -141 -5.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -7.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Newcomb Home: Clay Holmes
ERA: 2.51 ERA: 2.56
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 8.47 K/9: 6.96
BB/9: 3.31 BB/9: 2.98
FIP: 2.7 FIP: 3.37
IP: 68.0 IP: 63.3
xERA: 3.81 xERA: 4.03
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Newcomb)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CHC Lg Avg
Record 65-60 74-53
R/Game 4.82 5.17 4.48
RA/Game 4.46 4.35 4.48
OPS 0.730 0.757 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.327 0.310
ERA 4.11 4.15 4.17
FIP 4.06 4.58 4.05
WHIP 1.30 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.49 7.74 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.535 0.578 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.05 4.37 4.24
BP FIP 4.22 4.51 4.09
BP WHIP 1.35 1.35
BP K/9 8.12 8.46
BP Quality* 54.1 54.7 46.4
BP IP 331.3 498.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Trevor Richards (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erick Fedde (78 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Hagen Smith (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Javier Assad (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Randal Grichuk
Randal Grichuk Unknown OPS: 0.848 (189 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.5% of full strength
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0299 (Temp: 1.0013 | Wind: 1.0286)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.7 - CHC 5.1
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.7 - CHC 5.1
Win Probability: CWS 46.3% - CHC 53.7%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +116 / CHC -116
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.0: 58.6%
Under 8.0: 33.0%
CWS +1.5: 61.4%
CHC -1.5: 38.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.2 - CHC 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.2 - CHC 2.3
F5 Win Prob: CWS 49.5% - CHC 50.5% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +102 / CHC -102
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +131 +116 +3.0%
CHC ML -140 -116 -4.6%
CWS +1.5 -174 -159 -2.1%
CHC -1.5 +143 +159 -2.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +6.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -19.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | August 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brandon Pfaadt Home: Payton Tolle
ERA: 3.11 ERA: 2.97
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 5.92 K/9: 10.02
BB/9: 2.33 BB/9: 2.43
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 3.15
IP: 92.7 IP: 115.0
xERA: 3.6 xERA: 2.72
xwOBA: 0.294 xwOBA: 0.257
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI BOS Lg Avg
Record 66-61 68-58
R/Game 4.50 4.52 4.48
RA/Game 4.48 3.75 4.48
OPS 0.712 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.17 3.51 4.17
FIP 4.26 3.52 4.05
WHIP 1.29 1.22 1.30
K/9 6.83 8.63 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.502 0.584 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.77 3.17 4.24
BP FIP 3.68 3.33 4.09
BP WHIP 1.23 1.22
BP K/9 7.46 9.25
BP Quality* 43.7 39.6 46.4
BP IP 400.7 340.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Wyatt Olds (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9870 (Temp: 1.0217 | Wind: 0.9660)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 3.5 - BOS 4.2
Simulated Avg: ARI 3.5 - BOS 4.2
Win Probability: ARI 41.9% - BOS 58.1%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +138 / BOS -138
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.0: 39.6%
Under 8.0: 50.5%
ARI +1.5: 60.1%
BOS -1.5: 39.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 1.8 - BOS 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 1.8 - BOS 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ARI 42.1% - BOS 57.9% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +137 / BOS -137
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML +147 +138 +1.5%
BOS ML -158 -138 -3.2%
ARI +1.5 -159 -151 -1.3%
BOS -1.5 +131 +151 -3.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -12.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -1.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | August 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sandy Alcantara Home: Aaron Nola
ERA: 3.43 ERA: 5.33
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 6.86 K/9: 9.55
BB/9: 2.43 BB/9: 3.18
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 5.04
IP: 170.7 IP: 130.0
xERA: 3.62 xERA: 4.26
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.318
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Sandy Alcantara)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA PHI Lg Avg
Record 64-63 69-58
R/Game 4.40 4.49 4.48
RA/Game 4.27 4.39 4.48
OPS 0.730 0.713 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.307 0.310
ERA 3.95 4.15 4.17
FIP 3.83 3.64 4.05
WHIP 1.25 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.53 9.98 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.514 0.510 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.52 4.21 4.24
BP FIP 3.81 3.54 4.09
BP WHIP 1.33 1.33
BP K/9 9.15 10.08
BP Quality* 51.9 50.7 46.4
BP IP 408.3 440.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Phillips (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Orion Kerkering (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0145 (Temp: 1.0181 | Wind: 0.9964)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 5.1 - PHI 4.6
Simulated Avg: MIA 5.1 - PHI 4.6
Win Probability: MIA 54.0% - PHI 46.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -117 / PHI +117
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.0: 49.0%
Under 9.0: 42.2%
MIA +1.5: 68.8%
PHI -1.5: 31.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.9 - PHI 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 3.0 - PHI 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIA 60.5% - PHI 39.5% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -153 / PHI +153
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +115 -117 +7.5%
PHI ML -124 +117 -9.3%
MIA +1.5 -194 -220 +2.8%
PHI -1.5 +159 +220 -7.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -3.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | August 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Will Warren Home: Chris Bassitt
ERA: 4.42 ERA: 5.11
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.62
K/9: 8.92 K/9: 5.84
BB/9: 3.13 BB/9: 3.65
FIP: 4.14 FIP: 4.28
IP: 118.0 IP: 61.7
xERA: 4.57 xERA: 5.08
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.344
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BAL Lg Avg
Record 70-55 61-65
R/Game 4.43 4.52 4.48
RA/Game 3.74 4.75 4.48
OPS 0.715 0.718 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.310 0.310
ERA 3.24 4.23 4.17
FIP 3.55 3.99 4.05
WHIP 1.18 1.35 1.30
K/9 9.04 8.05 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.578 0.477 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.74 4.45 4.24
BP FIP 3.72 3.92 4.09
BP WHIP 1.16 1.34
BP K/9 8.44 8.68
BP Quality* 39.7 50.7 46.4
BP IP 377.7 419.0
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Josh Walker (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Albert Suárez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0131 (Temp: 1.0216 | Wind: 0.9917)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 5.0 - BAL 4.6
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.1 - BAL 4.6
Win Probability: NYY 54.0% - BAL 46.0%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -117 / BAL +117
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.0: 49.0%
Under 9.0: 42.3%
NYY -1.5: 39.0%
BAL +1.5: 61.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.9 - BAL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.9 - BAL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: NYY 52.2% - BAL 47.8% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -109 / BAL +109
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -116 -117 +0.3%
BAL ML +108 +117 -2.0%
NYY -1.5 +130 +157 -4.5%
BAL +1.5 -157 -157 -0.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -3.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] SF starter (id 683363) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | August 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Player 683363 Home: Parker Messick
ERA: 0.0 ERA: 2.59
WHIP: 0.0 WHIP: 1.03
K/9: 0.0 K/9: 8.98
BB/9: 0.0 BB/9: 2.53
FIP: 0.0 FIP: 3.23
IP: 0.0 IP: 142.3
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.06
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.272
Pitcher Edge: SF (Player 683363)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF CLE Lg Avg
Record 51-74 61-65
R/Game 4.08 3.98 4.48
RA/Game 4.67 4.18 4.48
OPS 0.713 0.683 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.297 0.310
ERA 4.38 3.82 4.17
FIP 4.04 3.83 4.05
WHIP 1.36 1.27 1.30
K/9 7.71 9.41 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.438 0.478 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.91 3.80 4.24
BP FIP 4.44 3.65 4.09
BP WHIP 1.52 1.32
BP K/9 7.10 9.96
BP Quality* 55.1 45.4 46.4
BP IP 308.0 423.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trent Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0205 (Temp: 1.0075 | Wind: 1.0129)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 3.3 - CLE 4.0
Simulated Avg: SF 3.3 - CLE 4.0
Win Probability: SF 41.8% - CLE 58.2%
Fair Moneyline: SF +139 / CLE -139
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 7.5: 44.3%
Under 7.5: 55.7%
SF +1.5: 60.9%
CLE -1.5: 39.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 1.6 - CLE 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.6 - CLE 1.9
F5 Win Prob: SF 44.0% - CLE 56.0% (Tie: 21.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +127 / CLE -127
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +195 +139 +7.9%
CLE ML -210 -139 -9.5%
SF +1.5 -122 -156 +5.9%
CLE -1.5 +102 +156 -10.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -8.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | August 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Matthew Liberatore Home: Chase Burns
ERA: 5.07 ERA: 2.47
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 8.77 K/9: 10.37
BB/9: 3.33 BB/9: 3.16
FIP: 4.44 FIP: 3.14
IP: 119.0 IP: 131.0
xERA: 4.85 xERA: 3.06
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.272
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL CIN Lg Avg
Record 65-62 60-66
R/Game 4.39 4.04 4.48
RA/Game 4.31 4.75 4.48
OPS 0.698 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.301 0.310
ERA 3.99 4.48 4.17
FIP 3.93 4.49 4.05
WHIP 1.33 1.40 1.30
K/9 7.77 8.20 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.508 0.427 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.07 4.65 4.24
BP FIP 4.07 4.61 4.09
BP WHIP 1.34 1.43
BP K/9 7.93 8.78
BP Quality* 54.9 52.4 46.4
BP IP 482.3 468.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Gordon Graceffo (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Zach Maxwell (38 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9992 (Temp: 1.0189 | Wind: 0.9807)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.0 - CIN 5.1
Simulated Avg: STL 4.0 - CIN 5.1
Win Probability: STL 39.9% - CIN 60.2%
Fair Moneyline: STL +151 / CIN -151
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 52.7%
Under 8.5: 47.3%
STL +1.5: 56.1%
CIN -1.5: 43.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 1.8 - CIN 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 1.8 - CIN 2.8
F5 Win Prob: STL 34.3% - CIN 65.7% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +192 / CIN -192
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +131 +151 -3.4%
CIN ML -140 -151 +1.8%
STL +1.5 -182 -128 -8.4%
CIN -1.5 +150 +128 +3.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | August 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Max Scherzer Home: Drew Rasmussen
ERA: 6.59 ERA: 2.78
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 0.91
K/9: 6.8 K/9: 9.26
BB/9: 3.73 BB/9: 1.6
FIP: 6.32 FIP: 2.78
IP: 41.0 IP: 129.3
xERA: 4.69 xERA: 3.1
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.274
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR TB Lg Avg
Record 62-65 75-50
R/Game 3.95 4.57 4.48
RA/Game 4.36 4.18 4.48
OPS 0.682 0.740 0.719
wOBA 0.294 0.317 0.310
ERA 3.96 3.83 4.17
FIP 3.89 3.98 4.05
WHIP 1.31 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.76 8.24 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.455 0.540 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.86 3.79 4.24
BP FIP 4.08 4.20 4.09
BP WHIP 1.33 1.19
BP K/9 8.05 8.57
BP Quality* 45.0 46.9 46.4
BP IP 275.0 399.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Steven Matz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jesse Scholtens (58 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 3.1 - TB 5.5
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.1 - TB 5.5
Win Probability: TOR 26.6% - TB 73.4%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +276 / TB -276
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 56.3%
Under 7.5: 43.7%
TOR +1.5: 42.7%
TB -1.5: 57.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 1.4 - TB 3.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.4 - TB 3.5
F5 Win Prob: TOR 19.9% - TB 80.1% (Tie: 13.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +403 / TB -403
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML +179 +276 -9.3%
TB ML -193 -276 +7.6%
TOR +1.5 -134 +134 -14.6%
TB -1.5 +111 -134 +9.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +4.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (Run Line) [+111]
Model: 57.3% | Market: 47.4% | Edge: 9.9%
Fair ML: -134 | Kelly: 4.72%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01081
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | August 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH KC Lg Avg
Record 49-77 53-74
R/Game 4.35 4.14 4.48
RA/Game 5.77 4.98 4.48
OPS 0.720 0.706 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.303 0.310
ERA 5.47 4.77 4.17
FIP 4.81 4.56 4.05
WHIP 1.50 1.41 1.30
K/9 8.57 7.52 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.373 0.417 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.83 6.11 4.24
BP FIP 4.65 5.52 4.09
BP WHIP 1.60 1.66
BP K/9 9.15 7.65
BP Quality* 63.6 63.4 46.4
BP IP 465.0 473.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Rom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Perkins (53 pitches yesterday)
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mason Black (51 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9898 (Temp: 1.0081 | Wind: 0.9819)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.8 - KC 4.8
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.8 - KC 4.8
Win Probability: ATH 50.4% - KC 49.6%
Fair Moneyline: ATH -102 / KC +102
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 56.3%
Under 8.5: 43.7%
ATH +1.5: 65.6%
KC -1.5: 34.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.3 - KC 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.4 - KC 2.3
F5 Win Prob: ATH 51.5% - KC 48.5% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH -106 / KC +106
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +147 -102 +9.9%
KC ML -158 +102 -11.6%
ATH +1.5 -159 -191 +4.3%
KC -1.5 +131 +191 -8.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Gilbert Home: Dustin May
ERA: 3.28 ERA: 4.13
WHIP: 0.99 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 9.41 K/9: 8.63
BB/9: 2.04 BB/9: 2.95
FIP: 3.39 FIP: 3.12
IP: 145.3 IP: 122.0
xERA: 3.68 xERA: 4.03
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA MIL Lg Avg
Record 59-67 78-48
R/Game 3.88 5.00 4.48
RA/Game 4.24 3.75 4.48
OPS 0.686 0.733 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.315 0.310
ERA 3.97 3.43 4.17
FIP 3.69 3.47 4.05
WHIP 1.22 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.63 9.76 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.460 0.629 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.05 3.60 4.24
BP FIP 3.95 3.57 4.09
BP WHIP 1.36 1.27
BP K/9 9.02 8.82
BP Quality* 49.5 42.7 46.4
BP IP 371.0 425.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Josh Simpson (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Leo Rivas (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Nick Davila (41 pitches yesterday)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Shane Drohan (39 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0047 (Temp: 0.9987 | Wind: 1.0061)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 3.4 - MIL 4.7
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.4 - MIL 4.7
Win Probability: SEA 36.6% - MIL 63.4%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +174 / MIL -174
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.0: 52.7%
Under 7.0: 37.4%
SEA +1.5: 54.0%
MIL -1.5: 46.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 1.9 - MIL 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.9 - MIL 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SEA 41.6% - MIL 58.4% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +140 / MIL -140
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML +110 +174 -11.1%
MIL ML -118 -174 +9.3%
SEA +1.5 -216 -117 -14.3%
MIL -1.5 +176 +117 +9.7%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +0.3%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -15.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (Run Line) [+176]
Model: 46.0% | Market: 36.2% | Edge: 9.8%
Fair ML: +117 | Kelly: 3.82%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01082
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | August 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cade Cavalli Home: Kumar Rocker
ERA: 3.36 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 9.94 K/9: 8.22
BB/9: 2.7 BB/9: 3.65
FIP: 3.22 FIP: 4.28
IP: 136.7 IP: 116.0
xERA: 3.95 xERA: 4.63
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Cade Cavalli)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH TEX Lg Avg
Record 60-67 62-64
R/Game 5.28 4.06 4.48
RA/Game 5.17 4.40 4.48
OPS 0.762 0.711 0.719
wOBA 0.326 0.307 0.310
ERA 4.73 4.27 4.17
FIP 4.61 4.02 4.05
WHIP 1.39 1.30 1.30
K/9 7.73 8.59 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.509 0.464 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.88 4.49 4.24
BP FIP 5.07 4.28 4.09
BP WHIP 1.60 1.38
BP K/9 8.73 8.07
BP Quality* 59.8 51.4 46.4
BP IP 425.7 405.0
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Trevor Williams (51 pitches yesterday)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 99°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (99°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0110 (Temp: 1.0407 | Wind: 0.9715)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 6.0 - TEX 4.5
Simulated Avg: WSH 6.0 - TEX 4.6
Win Probability: WSH 62.7% - TEX 37.3%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -168 / TEX +168
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 7.5: 71.5%
Under 7.5: 28.5%
WSH +1.5: 75.5%
TEX -1.5: 24.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 3.3 - TEX 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.3 - TEX 2.0
F5 Win Prob: WSH 69.0% - TEX 31.0% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -222 / TEX +222
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +120 -168 +17.2%
TEX ML -129 +168 -19.0%
WSH +1.5 -193 -308 +9.6%
TEX -1.5 +158 +308 -14.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +19.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -23.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 19.2%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HOU starter (id 814490) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | August 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Walbert Ureña Home: Player 814490
ERA: 2.67 ERA: 0.0
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 0.0
K/9: 8.53 K/9: 0.0
BB/9: 4.76 BB/9: 0.0
FIP: 3.52 FIP: 0.0
IP: 107.7 IP: 0.0
xERA: 3.3 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.282 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Player 814490)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA HOU Lg Avg
Record 50-76 63-63
R/Game 4.05 4.58 4.48
RA/Game 4.71 4.83 4.48
OPS 0.683 0.729 0.719
wOBA 0.297 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.37 4.57 4.17
FIP 4.07 4.48 4.05
WHIP 1.35 1.36 1.30
K/9 9.18 8.84 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.431 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.62 4.13 4.24
BP FIP 4.34 4.32 4.09
BP WHIP 1.39 1.29
BP K/9 9.02 9.05
BP Quality* 49.0 46.4 46.4
BP IP 315.3 440.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9912 (Temp: 1.0217 | Wind: 0.9701)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 3.6 - HOU 4.1
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.6 - HOU 4.1
Win Probability: LAA 44.5% - HOU 55.5%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +125 / HOU -125
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.5: 40.0%
Under 8.5: 60.0%
LAA +1.5: 62.5%
HOU -1.5: 37.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 1.9 - HOU 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.9 - HOU 2.0
F5 Win Prob: LAA 49.2% - HOU 50.8% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +103 / HOU -103
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +143 +125 +3.3%
HOU ML -154 -125 -5.1%
LAA +1.5 -157 -167 +1.4%
HOU -1.5 +130 +167 -6.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +7.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | August 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Roki Sasaki Home: Kyle Freeland
ERA: 4.46 ERA: 6.27
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 8.76 K/9: 7.31
BB/9: 3.65 BB/9: 2.01
FIP: 4.83 FIP: 4.52
IP: 111.0 IP: 120.7
xERA: 4.29 xERA: 5.26
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.349
Pitcher Edge: COL (Kyle Freeland)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD COL Lg Avg
Record 76-51 50-76
R/Game 4.99 4.82 4.48
RA/Game 3.87 5.77 4.48
OPS 0.765 0.741 0.719
wOBA 0.327 0.319 0.310
ERA 3.70 5.52 4.17
FIP 3.83 4.73 4.05
WHIP 1.17 1.52 1.30
K/9 9.13 6.94 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.615 0.418 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.16 5.13 4.24
BP FIP 3.92 4.38 4.09
BP WHIP 1.31 1.53
BP K/9 9.69 7.22
BP Quality* 50.9 56.9 46.4
BP IP 398.3 305.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Evan Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Zach Agnos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Parker Mushinski (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0210 (Temp: 1.0219 | Wind: 0.9991)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 7.1 - COL 6.3
Simulated Avg: LAD 7.1 - COL 6.3
Win Probability: LAD 55.5% - COL 44.5%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -125 / COL +125
Avg Total Runs: 13.4
Over 11.5: 60.3%
Under 11.5: 39.7%
LAD -1.5: 43.8%
COL +1.5: 56.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 4.0 - COL 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 4.0 - COL 3.4
F5 Win Prob: LAD 57.0% - COL 43.0% (Tie: 11.7%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -132 / COL +132
F5 Avg Total: 7.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -191 -125 -10.1%
COL ML +177 +125 +8.4%
LAD -1.5 -131 +128 -12.9%
COL +1.5 +108 -128 +8.1%
O 11.5 -110 N/A +8.0%
U 11.5 -110 N/A -12.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 11.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.3% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.18%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01083