2026-08-20
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-20
Games: 9 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | August 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael McGreevy Home: Brady Singer
ERA: 3.48 ERA: 4.66
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 6.2 K/9: 7.45
BB/9: 2.32 BB/9: 3.01
FIP: 4.27 FIP: 4.93
IP: 132.0 IP: 125.7
xERA: 5.47 xERA: 5.05
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.343
Pitcher Edge: STL (Michael McGreevy)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL CIN Lg Avg
Record 65-63 61-66
R/Game 4.39 4.05 4.48
RA/Game 4.32 4.74 4.48
OPS 0.699 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.01 4.48 4.17
FIP 3.91 4.48 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.40 1.30
K/9 7.81 8.23 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.428 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.09 4.65 4.24
BP FIP 4.06 4.63 4.09
BP WHIP 1.34 1.44
BP K/9 7.95 8.78
BP Quality* 54.9 57.1 46.3
BP IP 484.3 472.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Everson Pereira, José Fermín, Masyn Winn
Everson Pereira Outfielder OPS: 0.752 (94 AB)
José Fermín Outfielder OPS: 0.677 (236 AB)
Masyn Winn Shortstop OPS: 0.642 (431 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.9% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Spencer Steer, Blake Dunn, Eugenio Suárez
Spencer Steer First Base OPS: 0.740 (340 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Eugenio Suárez Designated Hitter OPS: 0.699 (340 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0146 (Temp: 1.0044 | Wind: 1.0102)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 5.4 - CIN 4.8
Simulated Avg: STL 5.4 - CIN 4.7
Win Probability: STL 55.5% - CIN 44.5%
Fair Moneyline: STL -125 / CIN +125
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 9.0: 51.9%
Under 9.0: 39.4%
STL -1.5: 40.9%
CIN +1.5: 59.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 3.0 - CIN 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 3.0 - CIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: STL 56.6% - CIN 43.4% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -130 / CIN +130
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML -106 -125 +4.0%
CIN ML -101 +125 -5.7%
STL -1.5 +140 +145 -0.8%
CIN +1.5 -170 -145 -3.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -0.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -13.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | August 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Landen Roupp Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 4.31 ERA: 3.74
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 8.91 K/9: 11.48
BB/9: 4.18 BB/9: 2.72
FIP: 3.52 FIP: 3.55
IP: 129.3 IP: 149.0
xERA: 3.76 xERA: 3.89
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF CLE Lg Avg
Record 52-74 61-66
R/Game 4.06 3.95 4.48
RA/Game 4.63 4.16 4.48
OPS 0.712 0.681 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.297 0.310
ERA 4.35 3.80 4.17
FIP 4.03 3.79 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.27 1.30
K/9 7.71 9.46 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.439 0.477 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.85 3.78 4.24
BP FIP 4.39 3.62 4.09
BP WHIP 1.50 1.31
BP K/9 7.15 10.01
BP Quality* 54.5 42.1 46.3
BP IP 312.0 426.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Adrian Houser (80 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (30 pitches yesterday)
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Casey Schmitt, Jesus Rodriguez, Victor Bericoto
Casey Schmitt Outfielder OPS: 0.784 (387 AB)
Jesus Rodriguez Catcher OPS: 0.728 (51 AB)
Victor Bericoto Outfielder OPS: 0.724 (77 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.5% of full strength
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Chase DeLauter, Austin Hedges, Jo Adell
Chase DeLauter Outfielder OPS: 0.800 (403 AB)
Austin Hedges Catcher OPS: 0.717 (166 AB)
Jo Adell Outfielder OPS: 0.695 (469 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0679 (Temp: 1.0108 | Wind: 1.0565)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.5 - CLE 4.0
Simulated Avg: SF 3.5 - CLE 4.0
Win Probability: SF 44.1% - CLE 55.9%
Fair Moneyline: SF +127 / CLE -127
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.0: 46.4%
Under 7.0: 43.2%
SF +1.5: 62.5%
CLE -1.5: 37.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.9 - CLE 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.9 - CLE 2.0
F5 Win Prob: SF 49.2% - CLE 50.7% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +103 / CLE -103
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +193 +127 +10.0%
CLE ML -208 -127 -11.7%
SF +1.5 -123 -166 +7.3%
CLE -1.5 +102 +166 -12.0%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -6.0%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -9.2%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] San Francisco Giants +1.5 (Run Line) [-123]
Model: 62.5% | Market: 55.2% | Edge: 7.3%
Fair ML: -166 | Kelly: 4.07%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01084
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | August 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane Bieber Home: Ian Seymour
ERA: 4.99 ERA: 4.11
WHIP: 1.56 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 6.84 K/9: 10.74
BB/9: 4.44 BB/9: 2.9
FIP: 5.73 FIP: 3.7
IP: 48.7 IP: 96.3
xERA: 6.85 xERA: 3.65
xwOBA: 0.39 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: TB (Ian Seymour)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR TB Lg Avg
Record 62-66 76-50
R/Game 3.97 4.59 4.48
RA/Game 4.38 4.20 4.48
OPS 0.682 0.740 0.719
wOBA 0.294 0.317 0.310
ERA 3.99 3.85 4.17
FIP 3.89 3.98 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.74 8.23 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.455 0.540 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.83 3.77 4.24
BP FIP 4.06 4.18 4.09
BP WHIP 1.33 1.18
BP K/9 8.06 8.53
BP Quality* 46.3 49.6 46.3
BP IP 277.0 403.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Luis Urías, Jesús Sánchez, Yohendrick Piñango, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Brandon Valenzuela
Luis Urías Second Base OPS: 0.803 (52 AB)
Jesús Sánchez Outfielder OPS: 0.742 (246 AB)
Yohendrick Piñango Outfielder OPS: 0.702 (169 AB)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. First Base OPS: 0.693 (430 AB)
Brandon Valenzuela Catcher OPS: 0.680 (204 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.5% of full strength
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Liam Hicks, Ryan Vilade, Victor Mesa Jr.
Liam Hicks Catcher OPS: 0.811 (395 AB)
Ryan Vilade Outfielder OPS: 0.809 (189 AB)
Victor Mesa Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.735 (159 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.3 - TB 5.2
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.3 - TB 5.2
Win Probability: TOR 31.1% - TB 68.9%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +221 / TB -221
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.0: 56.1%
Under 7.0: 34.5%
TOR +1.5: 47.4%
TB -1.5: 52.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.7 - TB 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.7 - TB 3.2
F5 Win Prob: TOR 26.2% - TB 73.8% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +282 / TB -282
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +154 +221 -8.2%
TB ML -165 -221 +6.6%
TOR +1.5 -157 +111 -13.7%
TB -1.5 +130 -111 +9.1%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +3.7%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -17.9%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (Run Line) [+130]
Model: 52.6% | Market: 43.5% | Edge: 9.1%
Fair ML: -111 | Kelly: 4.03%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01085
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | August 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gage Jump Home: Randy Dobnak
ERA: 4.5 ERA: 1.73
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 9.81 K/9: 5.4
BB/9: 4.27 BB/9: 3.46
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 3.68
IP: 78.0 IP: 41.7
xERA: 4.26 xERA: 4.57
xwOBA: 0.318 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH KC Lg Avg
Record 49-78 54-74
R/Game 4.37 4.18 4.48
RA/Game 5.80 4.99 4.48
OPS 0.720 0.708 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.304 0.310
ERA 5.50 4.79 4.17
FIP 4.82 4.54 4.04
WHIP 1.51 1.41 1.30
K/9 8.53 7.51 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.374 0.419 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.93 6.11 4.24
BP FIP 4.66 5.52 4.09
BP WHIP 1.62 1.65
BP K/9 9.13 7.66
BP Quality* 64.2 64.8 46.3
BP IP 467.3 476.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Drew Rom (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Scott Blewett (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hayden Juenger (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jac Caglianone, Carter Jensen, John Rave
Jac Caglianone Outfielder OPS: 0.827 (426 AB)
Carter Jensen Catcher OPS: 0.704 (416 AB)
John Rave Outfielder OPS: 0.701 (58 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0370 (Temp: 1.0150 | Wind: 1.0217)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 4.7 - KC 4.7
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.7 - KC 4.7
Win Probability: ATH 49.9% - KC 50.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +101 / KC -101
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.0: 54.8%
Under 8.0: 36.5%
ATH +1.5: 65.5%
KC -1.5: 34.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 2.1 - KC 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.1 - KC 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ATH 47.5% - KC 52.5% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +110 / KC -110
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +126 +101 +5.6%
KC ML -136 -101 -7.5%
ATH +1.5 -181 -190 +1.1%
KC -1.5 +149 +190 -5.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +2.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -15.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | August 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Grant Holmes Home: Anthony Kay
ERA: 3.82 ERA: 4.01
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 7.42 K/9: 7.27
BB/9: 3.9 BB/9: 3.26
FIP: 4.85 FIP: 4.29
IP: 117.7 IP: 121.3
xERA: 4.82 xERA: 5.02
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Anthony Kay)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL CWS Lg Avg
Record 74-53 66-60
R/Game 4.77 4.80 4.48
RA/Game 3.91 4.43 4.48
OPS 0.725 0.730 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.313 0.310
ERA 3.67 4.08 4.17
FIP 4.01 4.05 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.63 8.50 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.591 0.537 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.41 4.34 4.24
BP FIP 3.58 4.52 4.09
BP WHIP 1.18 1.38
BP K/9 9.19 8.12
BP Quality* 44.2 53.7 46.3
BP IP 388.0 269.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ray Kerr (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Urquidy (68 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0580 (Temp: 1.0019 | Wind: 1.0560)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 5.5 - CWS 5.4
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.5 - CWS 5.4
Win Probability: ATL 50.7% - CWS 49.3%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -103 / CWS +103
Avg Total Runs: 10.9
Over 8.5: 65.8%
Under 8.5: 34.2%
ATL -1.5: 37.1%
CWS +1.5: 62.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 3.0 - CWS 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 3.0 - CWS 3.1
F5 Win Prob: ATL 47.9% - CWS 52.0% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +109 / CWS -109
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -105 -103 -0.5%
CWS ML -102 +103 -1.2%
ATL -1.5 +149 +169 -3.0%
CWS +1.5 -181 -169 -1.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +13.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -18.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01086
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: George Kirby Home: Robert Gasser
ERA: 3.89 ERA: 4.54
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 7.51 K/9: 8.35
BB/9: 2.04 BB/9: 2.33
FIP: 3.73 FIP: 4.33
IP: 136.7 IP: 73.3
xERA: 3.84 xERA: 4.2
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA MIL Lg Avg
Record 60-67 78-49
R/Game 3.91 5.00 4.48
RA/Game 4.24 3.77 4.48
OPS 0.687 0.733 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.315 0.310
ERA 3.97 3.46 4.17
FIP 3.69 3.46 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.64 9.77 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.462 0.626 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.06 3.54 4.24
BP FIP 3.93 3.53 4.09
BP WHIP 1.35 1.26
BP K/9 9.05 8.89
BP Quality* 44.9 45.2 46.3
BP IP 375.0 432.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: DL Hall (47 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bryse Wilson (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0092 (Temp: 1.0068 | Wind: 1.0025)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.9 - MIL 4.8
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.9 - MIL 4.8
Win Probability: SEA 41.2% - MIL 58.8%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +142 / MIL -142
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.0: 48.4%
Under 8.0: 42.2%
SEA +1.5: 58.0%
MIL -1.5: 42.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.2 - MIL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.2 - MIL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SEA 44.4% - MIL 55.6% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +125 / MIL -125
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML +119 +142 -4.4%
MIL ML -128 -142 +2.6%
SEA +1.5 -193 -138 -7.9%
MIL -1.5 +158 +138 +3.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | August 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gerrit Cole Home: Kyle Bradish
ERA: 3.22 ERA: 3.65
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 9.55 K/9: 8.39
BB/9: 1.97 BB/9: 3.92
FIP: 3.28 FIP: 3.81
IP: 86.7 IP: 133.0
xERA: 3.37 xERA: 4.09
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Gerrit Cole)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY BAL Lg Avg
Record 71-55 61-66
R/Game 4.44 4.51 4.48
RA/Game 3.73 4.76 4.48
OPS 0.715 0.718 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.310 0.310
ERA 3.24 4.23 4.17
FIP 3.56 3.99 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.35 1.30
K/9 9.06 8.07 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.579 0.476 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.73 4.45 4.24
BP FIP 3.72 3.91 4.09
BP WHIP 1.16 1.34
BP K/9 8.47 8.69
BP Quality* 45.7 52.1 46.3
BP IP 382.7 422.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Brent Headrick (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Walker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 71%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind out (12 mph) | Rain likely (71%)
Weather Factor: 1.0349 (Temp: 1.0094 | Wind: 1.0252)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.6 - BAL 4.2
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.6 - BAL 4.2
Win Probability: NYY 53.7% - BAL 46.3%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -116 / BAL +116
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.5: 59.3%
Under 7.5: 40.7%
NYY -1.5: 37.7%
BAL +1.5: 62.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.4 - BAL 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.4 - BAL 2.1
F5 Win Prob: NYY 54.7% - BAL 45.3% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -121 / BAL +121
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -119 -116 -0.6%
BAL ML +111 +116 -1.1%
NYY -1.5 +135 +165 -4.9%
BAL +1.5 -163 -165 +0.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +7.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -11.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | August 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Alvarez Home: Jacob deGrom
ERA: 3.72 ERA: 3.95
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 8.28 K/9: 10.96
BB/9: 3.96 BB/9: 2.31
FIP: 3.1 FIP: 3.27
IP: 75.0 IP: 120.7
xERA: 4.5 xERA: 3.68
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH TEX Lg Avg
Record 61-67 62-65
R/Game 5.28 4.03 4.48
RA/Game 5.13 4.41 4.48
OPS 0.763 0.708 0.719
wOBA 0.326 0.306 0.310
ERA 4.69 4.28 4.17
FIP 4.57 4.03 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.30 1.30
K/9 7.77 8.56 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.513 0.459 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.84 4.53 4.24
BP FIP 5.05 4.31 4.09
BP WHIP 1.59 1.38
BP K/9 8.71 8.03
BP Quality* 58.0 50.1 46.3
BP IP 428.7 409.0
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jordan Montgomery (31 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 99°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (99°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0180 (Temp: 1.0408 | Wind: 0.9781)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 5.3 - TEX 4.6
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.3 - TEX 4.6
Win Probability: WSH 56.1% - TEX 43.9%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -128 / TEX +128
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 7.5: 67.6%
Under 7.5: 32.4%
WSH +1.5: 70.5%
TEX -1.5: 29.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 2.7 - TEX 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.7 - TEX 2.2
F5 Win Prob: WSH 58.7% - TEX 41.3% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -142 / TEX +142
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +147 -128 +15.6%
TEX ML -158 +128 -17.4%
WSH +1.5 -157 -239 +9.4%
TEX -1.5 +130 +239 -14.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +15.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -20.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 15.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01087
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | August 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Grayson Rodriguez Home: Peter Lambert
ERA: 7.17 ERA: 3.11
WHIP: 1.59 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 8.39 K/9: 8.87
BB/9: 4.27 BB/9: 3.49
FIP: 4.86 FIP: 3.61
IP: 59.0 IP: 118.7
xERA: 6.38 xERA: 3.34
xwOBA: 0.379 xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Peter Lambert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA HOU Lg Avg
Record 50-77 64-63
R/Game 4.03 4.57 4.48
RA/Game 4.70 4.81 4.48
OPS 0.682 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.297 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.36 4.55 4.17
FIP 4.06 4.46 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.36 1.30
K/9 9.21 8.85 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.430 0.476 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 4.09 4.24
BP FIP 4.30 4.28 4.09
BP WHIP 1.39 1.28
BP K/9 9.08 9.09
BP Quality* 48.7 47.5 46.3
BP IP 318.3 449.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0097 (Temp: 1.0204 | Wind: 0.9895)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 3.6 - HOU 6.0
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.6 - HOU 6.0
Win Probability: LAA 28.4% - HOU 71.6%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +252 / HOU -252
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 56.5%
Under 8.5: 43.5%
LAA +1.5: 43.0%
HOU -1.5: 57.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 1.8 - HOU 3.7
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.8 - HOU 3.7
F5 Win Prob: LAA 23.5% - HOU 76.5% (Tie: 13.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +326 / HOU -326
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +164 +252 -9.5%
HOU ML -177 -252 +7.7%
LAA +1.5 -136 +133 -14.7%
HOU -1.5 +113 -133 +10.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Houston Astros -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +113 | Edge: 10.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01088