2026-08-21
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-21
Games: 15 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chris Sale Home: Jacob Misiorowski
ERA: 2.16 ERA: 1.75
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 0.75
K/9: 11.16 K/9: 13.6
BB/9: 1.95 BB/9: 2.01
FIP: 2.08 FIP: 1.96
IP: 129.0 IP: 139.0
xERA: 3.06 xERA: 1.93
xwOBA: 0.272 xwOBA: 0.216
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL MIL Lg Avg
Record 75-53 79-49
R/Game 4.75 5.02 4.48
RA/Game 3.88 3.77 4.48
OPS 0.723 0.734 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.316 0.309
ERA 3.64 3.46 4.17
FIP 3.99 3.45 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.64 9.79 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.592 0.627 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.38 3.51 4.23
BP FIP 3.54 3.52 4.08
BP WHIP 1.17 1.26
BP K/9 9.28 8.93
BP Quality* 43.8 45.1 46.3
BP IP 391.0 435.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (44 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 29%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9884 (Temp: 1.0055 | Wind: 0.9830)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 3.2 - MIL 3.7
Simulated Avg: ATL 3.1 - MIL 3.7
Win Probability: ATL 43.8% - MIL 56.2%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +128 / MIL -128
Avg Total Runs: 6.8
Over 6.0: 50.4%
Under 6.0: 38.3%
ATL +1.5: 63.3%
MIL -1.5: 36.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 1.3 - MIL 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 1.3 - MIL 1.6
F5 Win Prob: ATL 41.5% - MIL 58.5% (Tie: 23.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +141 / MIL -141
F5 Avg Total: 2.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML +127 +128 -0.3%
MIL ML -137 -128 -1.6%
ATL +1.5 -198 -172 -3.1%
MIL -1.5 +162 +172 -1.5%
O 6.0 -110 N/A -1.9%
U 6.0 -110 N/A -14.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | August 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Jesús Luzardo
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL PHI Lg Avg
Record 66-63 70-58
R/Game 4.43 4.48 4.48
RA/Game 4.36 4.37 4.48
OPS 0.699 0.713 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.307 0.309
ERA 4.04 4.12 4.17
FIP 3.92 3.64 4.04
WHIP 1.33 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.82 9.98 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.508 0.512 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 4.19 4.23
BP FIP 4.10 3.53 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.33
BP K/9 7.99 10.08
BP Quality* 52.4 43.1 46.3
BP IP 488.0 442.0
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peter Strzelecki (31 pitches yesterday)
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0079 (Temp: 1.0045 | Wind: 1.0034)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 3.5 - PHI 5.0
Simulated Avg: STL 3.5 - PHI 5.0
Win Probability: STL 34.9% - PHI 65.1%
Fair Moneyline: STL +187 / PHI -187
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.0: 47.6%
Under 8.0: 43.0%
STL +1.5: 51.9%
PHI -1.5: 48.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 1.7 - PHI 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 1.7 - PHI 2.6
F5 Win Prob: STL 34.5% - PHI 65.5% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +190 / PHI -190
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +228 +187 +4.4%
PHI ML -247 -187 -6.1%
STL +1.5 +100 -108 +1.9%
PHI -1.5 -120 +108 -6.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mason Fluharty Home: Cam Schlittler
ERA: 3.71 ERA: 2.19
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 0.94
K/9: 9.88 K/9: 11.19
BB/9: 3.53 BB/9: 2.01
FIP: 3.61 FIP: 2.48
IP: 51.0 IP: 152.0
xERA: 2.76 xERA: 2.92
xwOBA: 0.259 xwOBA: 0.266
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR NYY Lg Avg
Record 63-66 72-55
R/Game 3.98 4.45 4.48
RA/Game 4.36 3.71 4.48
OPS 0.685 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.295 0.307 0.309
ERA 3.96 3.22 4.17
FIP 3.88 3.55 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.73 9.08 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.458 0.582 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.82 2.71 4.23
BP FIP 4.06 3.70 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.15
BP K/9 8.06 8.49
BP Quality* 47.8 45.4 46.3
BP IP 278.0 385.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Ryan Yarbrough (46 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Fernando Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9999 (Temp: 1.0005 | Wind: 0.9995)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.0 - NYY 4.1
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.0 - NYY 4.0
Win Probability: TOR 37.5% - NYY 62.5%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +167 / NYY -167
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 7.0: 42.0%
Under 7.0: 47.4%
TOR +1.5: 57.0%
NYY -1.5: 43.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.3 - NYY 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.3 - NYY 2.0
F5 Win Prob: TOR 35.2% - NYY 64.8% (Tie: 21.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +184 / NYY -184
F5 Avg Total: 3.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +180 +167 +1.8%
NYY ML -194 -167 -3.5%
TOR +1.5 -136 -132 -0.7%
NYY -1.5 +113 +132 -3.9%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -10.4%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -5.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | August 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Logan Webb Home: Sonny Gray
ERA: 3.5 ERA: 2.65
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 7.12 K/9: 7.94
BB/9: 2.07 BB/9: 2.31
FIP: 3.05 FIP: 3.38
IP: 139.0 IP: 132.7
xERA: 3.62 xERA: 3.6
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: SF (Logan Webb)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF BOS Lg Avg
Record 52-75 68-59
R/Game 4.04 4.53 4.48
RA/Game 4.64 3.78 4.48
OPS 0.709 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.313 0.309
ERA 4.34 3.52 4.17
FIP 4.02 3.53 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.22 1.30
K/9 7.71 8.63 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.437 0.582 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.81 3.19 4.23
BP FIP 4.36 3.37 4.08
BP WHIP 1.50 1.22
BP K/9 7.21 9.24
BP Quality* 51.2 41.3 46.3
BP IP 314.7 344.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0154 (Temp: 0.9944 | Wind: 1.0212)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.5 - BOS 4.6
Simulated Avg: SF 3.5 - BOS 4.6
Win Probability: SF 38.4% - BOS 61.6%
Fair Moneyline: SF +160 / BOS -160
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 7.5: 52.4%
Under 7.5: 47.5%
SF +1.5: 55.9%
BOS -1.5: 44.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.9 - BOS 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.9 - BOS 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SF 44.0% - BOS 56.0% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +127 / BOS -127
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +158 +160 -0.3%
BOS ML -170 -160 -1.4%
SF +1.5 -152 -127 -4.4%
BOS -1.5 +126 +127 -0.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -4.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | August 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brad Lord Home: Ryan Gusto
ERA: 4.04 ERA: 4.7
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 8.23 K/9: 8.22
BB/9: 3.61 BB/9: 2.35
FIP: 3.93 FIP: 3.99
IP: 62.3 IP: 53.7
xERA: 4.32 xERA: 4.23
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.317
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH MIA Lg Avg
Record 61-68 64-64
R/Game 5.24 4.38 4.48
RA/Game 5.11 4.27 4.48
OPS 0.759 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.325 0.315 0.309
ERA 4.68 3.96 4.17
FIP 4.57 3.84 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.25 1.30
K/9 7.78 8.48 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.512 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.82 4.52 4.23
BP FIP 5.03 3.80 4.08
BP WHIP 1.59 1.33
BP K/9 8.72 9.10
BP Quality* 57.8 45.8 46.3
BP IP 431.7 410.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9969 (Temp: 1.0181 | Wind: 0.9791)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 4.8 - MIA 4.5
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.8 - MIA 4.5
Win Probability: WSH 52.4% - MIA 47.6%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -110 / MIA +110
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 7.5: 63.4%
Under 7.5: 36.6%
WSH +1.5: 67.7%
MIA -1.5: 32.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.7 - MIA 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.7 - MIA 2.2
F5 Win Prob: WSH 58.1% - MIA 41.9% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -139 / MIA +139
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +137 -110 +10.2%
MIA ML -147 +110 -11.9%
WSH +1.5 -171 -210 +4.6%
MIA -1.5 +141 +210 -9.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +11.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -15.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01089
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | August 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Freddy Peralta Home: Trevor Rogers
ERA: 5.27 ERA: 4.15
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 8.65 K/9: 7.73
BB/9: 3.73 BB/9: 2.51
FIP: 4.45 FIP: 3.56
IP: 128.0 IP: 125.7
xERA: 4.09 xERA: 3.97
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Trevor Rogers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB BAL Lg Avg
Record 76-51 61-67
R/Game 4.56 4.48 4.48
RA/Game 4.20 4.77 4.48
OPS 0.737 0.715 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.309 0.309
ERA 3.86 4.23 4.17
FIP 4.00 3.99 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.35 1.30
K/9 8.26 8.08 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.537 0.472 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.76 4.44 4.23
BP FIP 4.18 3.88 4.08
BP WHIP 1.19 1.33
BP K/9 8.51 8.71
BP Quality* 46.7 48.9 46.3
BP IP 405.0 425.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (43 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Chris Roycroft (31 pitches yesterday)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Albert Suárez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0150 (Temp: 1.0066 | Wind: 1.0083)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.5 - BAL 5.0
Simulated Avg: TB 4.5 - BAL 5.0
Win Probability: TB 45.5% - BAL 54.5%
Fair Moneyline: TB +120 / BAL -120
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 7.5: 64.6%
Under 7.5: 35.4%
TB +1.5: 61.2%
BAL -1.5: 38.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.4 - BAL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.4 - BAL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: TB 43.1% - BAL 56.9% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +132 / BAL -132
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +112 +120 -1.6%
BAL ML -120 -120 -0.1%
TB +1.5 -198 -158 -5.3%
BAL -1.5 +162 +158 +0.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +12.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -17.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01090
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | August 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Manaea Home: Sean Burke
ERA: 4.22 ERA: 3.15
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 9.16 K/9: 9.9
BB/9: 3.0 BB/9: 2.7
FIP: 3.94 FIP: 3.29
IP: 111.0 IP: 140.0
xERA: 4.53 xERA: 3.6
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Burke)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM CWS Lg Avg
Record 58-70 66-61
R/Game 4.15 4.76 4.48
RA/Game 4.48 4.41 4.48
OPS 0.695 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.300 0.311 0.309
ERA 4.06 4.06 4.17
FIP 3.85 4.02 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.11 8.52 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.465 0.535 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 4.31 4.23
BP FIP 4.26 4.48 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.38
BP K/9 9.12 8.18
BP Quality* 46.6 53.4 46.3
BP IP 232.0 271.7
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9922 (Temp: 1.0051 | Wind: 0.9871)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.8 - CWS 4.9
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.8 - CWS 4.8
Win Probability: NYM 39.6% - CWS 60.4%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +152 / CWS -152
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.0: 48.6%
Under 8.0: 41.8%
NYM +1.5: 56.2%
CWS -1.5: 43.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 1.8 - CWS 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.8 - CWS 2.7
F5 Win Prob: NYM 34.9% - CWS 65.1% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +187 / CWS -187
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +131 +152 -3.7%
CWS ML -140 -152 +2.1%
NYM +1.5 -175 -129 -7.4%
CWS -1.5 +144 +129 +2.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | August 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Troy Melton Home: Noah Cameron
ERA: 1.49 ERA: 4.16
WHIP: 0.96 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 7.79 K/9: 8.2
BB/9: 2.67 BB/9: 2.8
FIP: 3.49 FIP: 3.53
IP: 84.3 IP: 138.3
xERA: 3.06 xERA: 4.17
xwOBA: 0.272 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET KC Lg Avg
Record 61-66 55-74
R/Game 4.54 4.19 4.48
RA/Game 3.90 4.97 4.48
OPS 0.725 0.710 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.305 0.309
ERA 3.55 4.76 4.17
FIP 3.76 4.54 4.04
WHIP 1.21 1.41 1.30
K/9 8.34 7.50 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.570 0.423 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.16 6.08 4.23
BP FIP 4.40 5.51 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.64
BP K/9 8.27 7.62
BP Quality* 47.7 66.1 46.3
BP IP 335.0 481.0
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
KC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Carlos Duran (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0180 (Temp: 1.0230 | Wind: 0.9952)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 5.1 - KC 3.5
Simulated Avg: DET 5.0 - KC 3.6
Win Probability: DET 64.3% - KC 35.7%
Fair Moneyline: DET -180 / KC +180
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 48.0%
Under 8.5: 52.0%
DET -1.5: 48.4%
KC +1.5: 51.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.4 - KC 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.4 - KC 1.6
F5 Win Prob: DET 64.5% - KC 35.5% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -182 / KC +182
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -113 -180 +11.3%
KC ML +105 +180 -13.1%
DET -1.5 +136 +107 +6.0%
KC +1.5 -164 -107 -10.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Detroit Tigers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -113 | Edge: 11.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01091
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | August 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: J.T. Ginn Home: Hayden Wesneski
ERA: 3.53 ERA: 5.16
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 8.06 K/9: 7.15
BB/9: 3.75 BB/9: 2.78
FIP: 3.99 FIP: 3.58
IP: 127.3 IP: 22.7
xERA: 3.97 xERA: 4.47
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Hayden Wesneski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH HOU Lg Avg
Record 49-79 64-64
R/Game 4.35 4.55 4.48
RA/Game 5.80 4.91 4.48
OPS 0.719 0.727 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.310 0.309
ERA 5.51 4.66 4.17
FIP 4.82 4.47 4.04
WHIP 1.51 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.52 8.84 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.372 0.465 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.93 4.20 4.23
BP FIP 4.65 4.33 4.08
BP WHIP 1.61 1.30
BP K/9 9.11 9.07
BP Quality* 64.1 51.3 46.3
BP IP 475.0 451.7
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Scott Blewett (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Taylor Rashi (43 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Drew Rom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tatsuya Imai (57 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9994 (Temp: 1.0248 | Wind: 0.9753)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.9 - HOU 5.2
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.9 - HOU 5.2
Win Probability: ATH 47.2% - HOU 52.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +112 / HOU -112
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 8.0: 60.2%
Under 8.0: 31.5%
ATH +1.5: 61.9%
HOU -1.5: 38.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.8 - HOU 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.8 - HOU 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ATH 56.3% - HOU 43.7% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH -129 / HOU +129
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +165 +112 +9.5%
HOU ML -177 -112 -11.1%
ATH +1.5 -141 -163 +3.4%
HOU -1.5 +117 +163 -8.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +7.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -20.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.2% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.8%
Fair ML: -151 | Kelly: 4.12%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01092
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | August 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Reid Detmers Home: MacKenzie Gore
ERA: 3.78 ERA: 4.45
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 10.51 K/9: 9.92
BB/9: 2.71 BB/9: 3.29
FIP: 3.21 FIP: 3.67
IP: 143.0 IP: 139.7
xERA: 3.32 xERA: 3.86
xwOBA: 0.283 xwOBA: 0.304
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA TEX Lg Avg
Record 51-77 63-65
R/Game 4.14 4.02 4.48
RA/Game 4.69 4.38 4.48
OPS 0.687 0.708 0.719
wOBA 0.298 0.306 0.309
ERA 4.34 4.25 4.17
FIP 4.04 4.01 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.30 1.30
K/9 9.20 8.61 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.443 0.461 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 4.50 4.23
BP FIP 4.27 4.29 4.08
BP WHIP 1.39 1.37
BP K/9 9.10 8.08
BP Quality* 50.0 49.9 46.3
BP IP 320.3 412.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Blake Weiman (35 pitches yesterday)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 100°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (100°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0184 (Temp: 1.0414 | Wind: 0.9779)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 4.4 - TEX 4.1
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.4 - TEX 4.1
Win Probability: LAA 52.7% - TEX 47.3%
Fair Moneyline: LAA -112 / TEX +112
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 56.3%
Under 7.5: 43.7%
LAA +1.5: 69.1%
TEX -1.5: 30.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.3 - TEX 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.3 - TEX 2.0
F5 Win Prob: LAA 56.4% - TEX 43.6% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -129 / TEX +129
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +127 -112 +8.7%
TEX ML -137 +112 -10.5%
LAA +1.5 -186 -224 +4.1%
TEX -1.5 +153 +224 -8.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +3.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | August 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Joey Cantillo Home: Tanner Gordon
ERA: 3.8 ERA: 5.55
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 9.95 K/9: 7.82
BB/9: 4.23 BB/9: 1.64
FIP: 3.85 FIP: 4.64
IP: 125.7 IP: 71.3
xERA: 3.86 xERA: 4.85
xwOBA: 0.304 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Joey Cantillo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE COL Lg Avg
Record 62-66 50-77
R/Game 3.96 4.81 4.48
RA/Game 4.14 5.77 4.48
OPS 0.681 0.741 0.719
wOBA 0.296 0.318 0.309
ERA 3.79 5.51 4.17
FIP 3.79 4.72 4.04
WHIP 1.27 1.52 1.30
K/9 9.49 6.97 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.480 0.417 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 5.04 4.23
BP FIP 3.63 4.32 4.08
BP WHIP 1.31 1.51
BP K/9 9.98 7.29
BP Quality* 48.1 54.6 46.3
BP IP 429.3 311.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0062 (Temp: 1.0274 | Wind: 0.9793)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 5.3 - COL 5.5
Simulated Avg: CLE 5.3 - COL 5.5
Win Probability: CLE 48.2% - COL 51.8%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +107 / COL -107
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 10.5: 49.9%
Under 10.5: 50.1%
CLE -1.5: 34.5%
COL +1.5: 65.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 3.0 - COL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 3.0 - COL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: CLE 51.3% - COL 48.7% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -105 / COL +105
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -153 +107 -12.3%
COL ML +142 -107 +10.5%
CLE -1.5 -102 +190 -16.0%
COL +1.5 -118 -190 +11.3%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -2.5%
U 10.5 -110 N/A -2.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -118 | Edge: 11.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01093
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nick Lodolo Home: Eduardo Rodriguez
ERA: 4.52 ERA: 2.71
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 7.16 K/9: 6.39
BB/9: 3.64 BB/9: 2.83
FIP: 4.9 FIP: 3.84
IP: 71.7 IP: 149.3
xERA: 5.98 xERA: 4.72
xwOBA: 0.369 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Eduardo Rodriguez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN ARI Lg Avg
Record 61-67 67-61
R/Game 4.09 4.52 4.48
RA/Game 4.78 4.49 4.48
OPS 0.695 0.714 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.307 0.309
ERA 4.47 4.18 4.17
FIP 4.49 4.27 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.29 1.30
K/9 8.21 6.85 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.429 0.503 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.62 3.68 4.23
BP FIP 4.64 3.67 4.08
BP WHIP 1.44 1.23
BP K/9 8.78 7.40
BP Quality* 55.5 44.9 46.3
BP IP 475.7 401.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Brock Burke (B2B, 31 pitches)
TIRED: Zach Maxwell (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.8 - ARI 5.7
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.8 - ARI 5.7
Win Probability: CIN 32.8% - ARI 67.2%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +205 / ARI -205
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.5: 55.9%
Under 8.5: 44.1%
CIN +1.5: 48.0%
ARI -1.5: 52.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.1 - ARI 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.1 - ARI 3.2
F5 Win Prob: CIN 33.7% - ARI 66.3% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +197 / ARI -197
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +131 +205 -10.5%
ARI ML -141 -205 +8.7%
CIN +1.5 -170 +109 -15.0%
ARI -1.5 +140 -109 +10.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +140 | Edge: 10.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01094
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | August 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Connor Prielipp Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN SD Lg Avg
Record 63-65 68-60
R/Game 4.62 4.24 4.48
RA/Game 4.95 4.22 4.48
OPS 0.727 0.704 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.304 0.309
ERA 4.62 4.05 4.17
FIP 4.16 4.05 4.04
WHIP 1.38 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.42 8.25 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.503 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.44 2.84 4.23
BP FIP 3.92 3.00 4.08
BP WHIP 1.42 1.15
BP K/9 8.66 10.90
BP Quality* 51.3 34.6 46.3
BP IP 559.3 266.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9940 (Temp: 1.0023 | Wind: 0.9917)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 3.9 - SD 4.5
Simulated Avg: MIN 3.9 - SD 4.5
Win Probability: MIN 43.6% - SD 56.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +129 / SD -129
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 45.1%
Under 8.0: 45.3%
MIN +1.5: 61.1%
SD -1.5: 39.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.4 - SD 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.4 - SD 2.4
F5 Win Prob: MIN 50.1% - SD 49.9% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -100 / SD +100
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +110 +129 -4.0%
SD ML -118 -129 +2.2%
MIN +1.5 -199 -157 -5.5%
SD -1.5 +163 +157 +0.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | August 21, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bubba Chandler Home: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
ERA: 4.23 ERA: 2.6
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 0.89
K/9: 8.01 K/9: 8.42
BB/9: 4.75 BB/9: 2.11
FIP: 3.97 FIP: 3.27
IP: 121.3 IP: 145.3
xERA: 4.06 xERA: 3.08
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.273
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT LAD Lg Avg
Record 63-66 77-51
R/Game 5.01 5.00 4.48
RA/Game 4.77 3.87 4.48
OPS 0.744 0.765 0.719
wOBA 0.322 0.326 0.309
ERA 4.29 3.70 4.17
FIP 3.75 3.81 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.17 1.30
K/9 9.35 9.17 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.522 0.615 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.74 4.15 4.23
BP FIP 3.65 3.91 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.31
BP K/9 9.70 9.77
BP Quality* 43.9 47.8 46.3
BP IP 418.7 403.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9978 (Temp: 1.0045 | Wind: 0.9933)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 4.0 - LAD 4.8
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.0 - LAD 4.8
Win Probability: PIT 42.9% - LAD 57.1%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +133 / LAD -133
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 49.6%
Under 8.0: 41.0%
PIT +1.5: 59.3%
LAD -1.5: 40.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 1.9 - LAD 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 1.9 - LAD 2.6
F5 Win Prob: PIT 38.1% - LAD 61.9% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +162 / LAD -162
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +207 +133 +10.3%
LAD ML -224 -133 -12.0%
PIT +1.5 -110 -146 +6.9%
LAD -1.5 -109 +146 -11.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +207 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01095
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | August 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Boyd Home: Emerson Hancock
ERA: 4.02 ERA: 3.3
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 7.2 K/9: 8.37
BB/9: 2.75 BB/9: 2.25
FIP: 4.41 FIP: 3.62
IP: 85.0 IP: 128.0
xERA: 4.98 xERA: 3.97
xwOBA: 0.341 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Emerson Hancock)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC SEA Lg Avg
Record 74-54 60-68
R/Game 5.12 3.91 4.48
RA/Game 4.34 4.27 4.48
OPS 0.755 0.685 0.719
wOBA 0.326 0.299 0.309
ERA 4.14 4.00 4.17
FIP 4.57 3.69 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.23 1.30
K/9 7.72 8.65 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.575 0.460 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.38 4.03 4.23
BP FIP 4.50 3.93 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.35
BP K/9 8.46 9.08
BP Quality* 50.2 47.8 46.3
BP IP 501.0 379.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (40 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (Temp: 1.0048 | Wind: 0.9953)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 4.4 - SEA 4.1
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.4 - SEA 4.1
Win Probability: CHC 53.5% - SEA 46.5%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -115 / SEA +115
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 46.9%
Under 8.0: 43.7%
CHC -1.5: 36.9%
SEA +1.5: 63.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 2.3 - SEA 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.3 - SEA 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CHC 51.8% - SEA 48.2% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -108 / SEA +108
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -102 -115 +3.0%
SEA ML -105 +115 -4.7%
CHC -1.5 +155 +171 -2.3%
SEA +1.5 -188 -171 -2.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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