2026-08-22
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-22
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dylan Cease Home: Ryan Weathers
ERA: 2.42 ERA: 3.56
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 13.14 K/9: 9.4
BB/9: 3.86 BB/9: 2.55
FIP: 2.32 FIP: 3.61
IP: 137.7 IP: 134.0
xERA: 2.66 xERA: 4.2
xwOBA: 0.254 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR NYY Lg Avg
Record 63-67 73-55
R/Game 3.95 4.44 4.47
RA/Game 4.35 3.69 4.47
OPS 0.685 0.715 0.718
wOBA 0.295 0.307 0.309
ERA 3.96 3.20 4.16
FIP 3.88 3.54 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.76 9.07 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.457 0.584 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.79 2.69 4.21
BP FIP 4.03 3.67 4.08
BP WHIP 1.33 1.15
BP K/9 8.10 8.52
BP Quality* 50.6 42.2 46.2
BP IP 280.0 388.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Spencer Arrighetti (61 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brendon Little (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton
Aaron Judge Outfielder OPS: 0.908 (214 AB)
Cody Bellinger Outfielder OPS: 0.770 (374 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt First Base OPS: 0.758 (304 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0491 (Temp: 1.0054 | Wind: 1.0435)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.7 - NYY 3.4
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.7 - NYY 3.4
Win Probability: TOR 53.5% - NYY 46.5%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -115 / NYY +115
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 6.5: 53.4%
Under 6.5: 46.6%
TOR -1.5: 35.1%
NYY +1.5: 64.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.1 - NYY 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.1 - NYY 1.4
F5 Win Prob: TOR 64.8% - NYY 35.2% (Tie: 20.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -184 / NYY +184
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -102 -115 +3.0%
NYY ML -105 +115 -4.7%
TOR -1.5 +163 +185 -2.9%
NYY +1.5 -199 -185 -1.7%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +1.0%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -5.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Martín Pérez Home: Logan Henderson
ERA: 3.15 ERA: 2.7
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 0.87
K/9: 6.71 K/9: 10.66
BB/9: 3.64 BB/9: 1.71
FIP: 4.11 FIP: 3.35
IP: 111.3 IP: 63.3
xERA: 4.38 xERA: 2.7
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.256
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Logan Henderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL MIL Lg Avg
Record 75-54 80-49
R/Game 4.72 4.99 4.47
RA/Game 3.86 3.75 4.47
OPS 0.722 0.733 0.718
wOBA 0.310 0.316 0.309
ERA 3.63 3.44 4.16
FIP 3.97 3.44 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.65 9.78 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.591 0.628 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.38 3.51 4.21
BP FIP 3.54 3.52 4.08
BP WHIP 1.17 1.26
BP K/9 9.28 8.91
BP Quality* 42.3 43.6 46.2
BP IP 392.0 438.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), wind out (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0595 (Temp: 1.0108 | Wind: 1.0482)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 3.9 - MIL 5.0
Simulated Avg: ATL 3.9 - MIL 5.0
Win Probability: ATL 39.2% - MIL 60.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +155 / MIL -155
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.0: 51.1%
Under 8.0: 39.9%
ATL +1.5: 55.4%
MIL -1.5: 44.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 1.9 - MIL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 1.9 - MIL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: ATL 35.7% - MIL 64.3% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +180 / MIL -180
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML +147 +155 -1.3%
MIL ML -158 -155 -0.4%
ATL +1.5 -157 -124 -5.7%
MIL -1.5 +130 +124 +1.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -1.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -12.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | August 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jake Irvin Home: Eury Pérez
ERA: 5.8 ERA: 3.23
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 9.08 K/9: 9.76
BB/9: 3.91 BB/9: 3.6
FIP: 4.57 FIP: 3.51
IP: 71.3 IP: 122.7
xERA: 5.32 xERA: 3.65
xwOBA: 0.351 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Eury Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH MIA Lg Avg
Record 61-69 65-64
R/Game 5.22 4.36 4.47
RA/Game 5.09 4.25 4.47
OPS 0.758 0.727 0.718
wOBA 0.325 0.314 0.309
ERA 4.67 3.94 4.16
FIP 4.57 3.84 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.25 1.30
K/9 7.78 8.46 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.511 0.512 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.81 4.51 4.21
BP FIP 5.01 3.82 4.08
BP WHIP 1.60 1.33
BP K/9 8.75 9.08
BP Quality* 65.3 45.9 46.2
BP IP 437.0 415.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Clayton Beeter (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Tom Cosgrove (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Will Dion (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0005 (Temp: 1.0252 | Wind: 0.9759)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 4.3 - MIA 5.4
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.3 - MIA 5.4
Win Probability: WSH 39.8% - MIA 60.2%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +152 / MIA -152
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 7.5: 65.6%
Under 7.5: 34.4%
WSH +1.5: 55.2%
MIA -1.5: 44.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.2 - MIA 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.2 - MIA 2.8
F5 Win Prob: WSH 40.7% - MIA 59.3% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +146 / MIA -146
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +163 +152 +1.7%
MIA ML -175 -152 -3.4%
WSH +1.5 -143 -123 -3.7%
MIA -1.5 +119 +123 -0.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +13.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -18.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01096
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | August 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Andrew Painter
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL PHI Lg Avg
Record 66-64 71-58
R/Game 4.45 4.50 4.47
RA/Game 4.38 4.38 4.47
OPS 0.700 0.715 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.307 0.309
ERA 4.06 4.12 4.16
FIP 3.92 3.63 4.04
WHIP 1.33 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.81 9.99 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.513 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.18 4.16 4.21
BP FIP 4.09 3.52 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.33
BP K/9 7.96 10.06
BP Quality* 49.4 44.4 46.2
BP IP 493.0 445.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9905 (Temp: 0.9996 | Wind: 0.9908)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 5.2 - PHI 4.8
Simulated Avg: STL 5.2 - PHI 4.8
Win Probability: STL 53.0% - PHI 47.0%
Fair Moneyline: STL -113 / PHI +113
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 9.0: 51.6%
Under 9.0: 39.8%
STL +1.5: 67.7%
PHI -1.5: 32.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 3.3 - PHI 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 3.3 - PHI 2.6
F5 Win Prob: STL 59.8% - PHI 40.2% (Tie: 14.2%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -149 / PHI +149
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +137 -113 +10.8%
PHI ML -147 +113 -12.5%
STL +1.5 -167 -210 +5.2%
PHI -1.5 +137 +210 -9.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -0.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -12.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] St. Louis Cardinals (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +137 | Edge: 10.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01097
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | August 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane McClanahan Home: Brandon Young
ERA: 3.25 ERA: 3.52
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 8.27 K/9: 7.34
BB/9: 3.08 BB/9: 3.21
FIP: 3.31 FIP: 4.2
IP: 102.3 IP: 117.7
xERA: 4.17 xERA: 4.41
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: TB (Shane McClanahan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB BAL Lg Avg
Record 76-52 62-67
R/Game 4.55 4.49 4.47
RA/Game 4.21 4.75 4.47
OPS 0.736 0.716 0.718
wOBA 0.315 0.309 0.309
ERA 3.87 4.22 4.16
FIP 4.01 3.98 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.35 1.30
K/9 8.25 8.09 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.535 0.474 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 4.42 4.21
BP FIP 4.18 3.86 4.08
BP WHIP 1.18 1.33
BP K/9 8.49 8.75
BP Quality* 43.6 48.7 46.2
BP IP 406.0 427.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 18%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9940 (Temp: 1.0026 | Wind: 0.9915)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.6 - BAL 4.2
Simulated Avg: TB 4.6 - BAL 4.2
Win Probability: TB 53.8% - BAL 46.2%
Fair Moneyline: TB -117 / BAL +117
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 49.3%
Under 8.0: 41.4%
TB -1.5: 37.9%
BAL +1.5: 62.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.5 - BAL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.5 - BAL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TB 55.1% - BAL 44.9% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -123 / BAL +123
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -124 -117 -1.5%
BAL ML +115 +117 -0.4%
TB -1.5 +130 +164 -5.6%
BAL +1.5 -157 -164 +1.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | August 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Johnson Home: Cody Bradford
ERA: 6.41 ERA: 2.93
WHIP: 1.54 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 7.01 K/9: 5.87
BB/9: 4.33 BB/9: 2.35
FIP: 6.43 FIP: 3.43
IP: 60.3 IP: 15.3
xERA: 5.6 xERA: 5.98
xwOBA: 0.359 xwOBA: 0.369
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Cody Bradford)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA TEX Lg Avg
Record 51-78 64-65
R/Game 4.12 4.00 4.47
RA/Game 4.67 4.35 4.47
OPS 0.684 0.708 0.718
wOBA 0.297 0.306 0.309
ERA 4.30 4.21 4.16
FIP 4.02 3.98 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.21 8.65 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.443 0.462 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.53 4.47 4.21
BP FIP 4.25 4.28 4.08
BP WHIP 1.39 1.37
BP K/9 9.14 8.13
BP Quality* 49.8 52.7 46.2
BP IP 324.0 415.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 4.2 - TEX 5.7
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.2 - TEX 5.7
Win Probability: LAA 37.1% - TEX 62.9%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +170 / TEX -170
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.0: 58.9%
Under 8.0: 32.7%
LAA +1.5: 52.1%
TEX -1.5: 47.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.1 - TEX 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.1 - TEX 3.5
F5 Win Prob: LAA 30.4% - TEX 69.5% (Tie: 13.5%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +228 / TEX -228
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +149 +170 -3.1%
TEX ML -160 -170 +1.4%
LAA +1.5 -149 -109 -7.7%
TEX -1.5 +123 +109 +3.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +6.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -19.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | August 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob Lopez Home: Hunter Brown
ERA: 5.22 ERA: 3.67
WHIP: 1.53 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 8.28 K/9: 9.44
BB/9: 4.7 BB/9: 5.24
FIP: 5.04 FIP: 4.45
IP: 88.0 IP: 68.7
xERA: 3.44 xERA: 3.83
xwOBA: 0.288 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Hunter Brown)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH HOU Lg Avg
Record 49-80 65-64
R/Game 4.32 4.55 4.47
RA/Game 5.78 4.88 4.47
OPS 0.716 0.728 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.310 0.309
ERA 5.50 4.62 4.16
FIP 4.81 4.46 4.04
WHIP 1.51 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.50 8.84 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.369 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.91 4.17 4.21
BP FIP 4.64 4.31 4.08
BP WHIP 1.61 1.29
BP K/9 9.09 9.09
BP Quality* 62.4 51.0 46.2
BP IP 478.0 455.7
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Drew Rom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hayden Juenger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Scott Blewett (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 95°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (95°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0403 (Temp: 1.0351 | Wind: 1.0051)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 4.5 - HOU 5.8
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.5 - HOU 5.8
Win Probability: ATH 38.8% - HOU 61.2%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +158 / HOU -158
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 8.0: 62.2%
Under 8.0: 29.8%
ATH +1.5: 53.6%
HOU -1.5: 46.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 2.4 - HOU 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.4 - HOU 2.9
F5 Win Prob: ATH 42.5% - HOU 57.5% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +135 / HOU -135
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +214 +158 +7.0%
HOU ML -232 -158 -8.7%
ATH +1.5 -111 -115 +1.0%
HOU -1.5 -108 +115 -5.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +9.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -22.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.2% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.8%
Fair ML: -165 | Kelly: 5.17%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01098
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | August 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Christian Scott Home: Luis Castillo
ERA: 3.51 ERA: 4.99
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 11.16 K/9: 7.96
BB/9: 3.72 BB/9: 2.81
FIP: 3.09 FIP: 4.41
IP: 84.7 IP: 115.3
xERA: 3.86 xERA: 4.85
xwOBA: 0.304 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Christian Scott)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM CWS Lg Avg
Record 58-71 67-61
R/Game 4.15 4.77 4.47
RA/Game 4.49 4.41 4.47
OPS 0.694 0.726 0.718
wOBA 0.300 0.312 0.309
ERA 4.08 4.06 4.16
FIP 3.88 4.01 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.09 8.53 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.464 0.537 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 4.29 4.21
BP FIP 4.29 4.46 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.38
BP K/9 9.13 8.22
BP Quality* 49.9 50.3 46.2
BP IP 234.7 272.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Daniel Duarte (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nate Lavender (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9966 (Temp: 1.0003 | Wind: 0.9963)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 4.5 - CWS 4.5
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.5 - CWS 4.5
Win Probability: NYM 49.3% - CWS 50.7%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +103 / CWS -103
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.0: 51.9%
Under 8.0: 38.9%
NYM -1.5: 33.8%
CWS +1.5: 66.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.6 - CWS 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.6 - CWS 2.2
F5 Win Prob: NYM 55.7% - CWS 44.3% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -126 / CWS +126
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML +103 +103 +0.1%
CWS ML -110 -103 -1.7%
NYM -1.5 +159 +196 -4.8%
CWS +1.5 -194 -196 +0.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | August 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Drew Anderson Home: Michael Wacha
ERA: 4.01 ERA: 3.58
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 10.26 K/9: 6.94
BB/9: 3.42 BB/9: 2.37
FIP: 3.83 FIP: 4.1
IP: 76.3 IP: 155.7
xERA: 3.54 xERA: 4.14
xwOBA: 0.292 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET KC Lg Avg
Record 61-67 56-74
R/Game 4.52 4.20 4.47
RA/Game 3.91 4.95 4.47
OPS 0.724 0.712 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.306 0.309
ERA 3.56 4.74 4.16
FIP 3.79 4.54 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.41 1.30
K/9 8.31 7.48 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.567 0.426 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 6.07 4.21
BP FIP 4.40 5.50 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.65
BP K/9 8.24 7.61
BP Quality* 49.3 67.6 46.2
BP IP 336.3 485.0
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0559 (Temp: 1.0183 | Wind: 1.0369)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 5.3 - KC 4.4
Simulated Avg: DET 5.3 - KC 4.4
Win Probability: DET 58.2% - KC 41.8%
Fair Moneyline: DET -139 / KC +139
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.5: 57.2%
Under 8.5: 42.8%
DET -1.5: 43.4%
KC +1.5: 56.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.5 - KC 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.5 - KC 2.2
F5 Win Prob: DET 54.2% - KC 45.8% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -118 / KC +118
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -105 -139 +7.0%
KC ML -102 +139 -8.7%
DET -1.5 +150 +130 +3.4%
KC +1.5 -182 -130 -7.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | August 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jared Jones Home: Tarik Skubal
ERA: 4.78 ERA: 2.85
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 0.96
K/9: 10.13 K/9: 10.69
BB/9: 2.95 BB/9: 1.58
FIP: 4.07 FIP: 2.63
IP: 64.0 IP: 113.7
xERA: 3.67 xERA: 3.01
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.27
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT LAD Lg Avg
Record 63-67 78-51
R/Game 5.00 5.00 4.47
RA/Game 4.77 3.87 4.47
OPS 0.742 0.764 0.718
wOBA 0.322 0.326 0.309
ERA 4.29 3.70 4.16
FIP 3.75 3.80 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.16 1.30
K/9 9.39 9.20 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.522 0.615 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.71 4.16 4.21
BP FIP 3.64 3.92 4.08
BP WHIP 1.32 1.30
BP K/9 9.72 9.80
BP Quality* 48.2 47.8 46.2
BP IP 422.3 407.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Lake Bachar (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kyle Hurt (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Stewart (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0148 (Temp: 1.0227 | Wind: 0.9923)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 4.0 - LAD 5.1
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.0 - LAD 5.1
Win Probability: PIT 39.2% - LAD 60.8%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +155 / LAD -155
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 7.5: 61.0%
Under 7.5: 39.0%
PIT +1.5: 55.3%
LAD -1.5: 44.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 1.8 - LAD 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 1.8 - LAD 2.7
F5 Win Prob: PIT 34.6% - LAD 65.4% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +189 / LAD -189
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +233 +155 +9.2%
LAD ML -253 -155 -10.9%
PIT +1.5 -105 -124 +4.1%
LAD -1.5 -115 +124 -8.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +8.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -13.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.6%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.53%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01099
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] SEA starter (id 807739) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | August 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: David Peterson Home: Player 807739
ERA: 5.29 ERA: 0.0
WHIP: 1.53 WHIP: 0.0
K/9: 7.61 K/9: 0.0
BB/9: 3.77 BB/9: 0.0
FIP: 3.94 FIP: 0.0
IP: 112.3 IP: 0.0
xERA: 4.94 xERA: N/A
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: N/A
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Player 807739)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC SEA Lg Avg
Record 74-55 61-68
R/Game 5.12 3.92 4.47
RA/Game 4.36 4.27 4.47
OPS 0.757 0.684 0.718
wOBA 0.326 0.298 0.309
ERA 4.14 4.01 4.16
FIP 4.57 3.72 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.23 1.30
K/9 7.71 8.66 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.574 0.461 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.36 4.03 4.21
BP FIP 4.49 3.98 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.35
BP K/9 8.47 9.09
BP Quality* 48.6 52.5 46.2
BP IP 503.7 384.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SEA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9999 (Temp: 1.0029 | Wind: 0.9970)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 4.3 - SEA 4.1
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.3 - SEA 4.1
Win Probability: CHC 52.5% - SEA 47.4%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -111 / SEA +111
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.5: 55.9%
Under 7.5: 44.1%
CHC -1.5: 36.1%
SEA +1.5: 63.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.0 - SEA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.0 - SEA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: CHC 45.5% - SEA 54.5% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +120 / SEA -120
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML +104 -111 +3.5%
SEA ML -112 +111 -5.4%
CHC -1.5 +167 +177 -1.3%
SEA +1.5 -204 -177 -3.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +3.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | August 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Blade Tidwell Home: Patrick Sandoval
ERA: 4.33 ERA: 4.76
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.85
K/9: 6.67 K/9: 9.26
BB/9: 3.33 BB/9: 4.24
FIP: 3.69 FIP: 3.6
IP: 27.0 IP: 34.0
xERA: 3.91 xERA: 4.75
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.334
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF BOS Lg Avg
Record 52-76 69-59
R/Game 4.04 4.54 4.47
RA/Game 4.65 3.78 4.47
OPS 0.710 0.730 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.314 0.309
ERA 4.36 3.53 4.16
FIP 4.03 3.54 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.22 1.30
K/9 7.68 8.66 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.436 0.583 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.75 3.16 4.21
BP FIP 4.35 3.34 4.08
BP WHIP 1.50 1.22
BP K/9 7.12 9.32
BP Quality* 54.0 41.1 46.2
BP IP 320.0 347.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trent Harris (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (30 pitches yesterday)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0237 (Temp: 0.9960 | Wind: 1.0278)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 4.1 - BOS 5.5
Simulated Avg: SF 4.2 - BOS 5.4
Win Probability: SF 38.0% - BOS 62.1%
Fair Moneyline: SF +164 / BOS -164
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.0: 56.4%
Under 8.0: 34.9%
SF +1.5: 53.5%
BOS -1.5: 46.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.5 - BOS 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.5 - BOS 2.9
F5 Win Prob: SF 44.1% - BOS 55.9% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +127 / BOS -127
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +189 +164 +3.3%
BOS ML -204 -164 -5.1%
SF +1.5 -123 -115 -1.6%
BOS -1.5 +102 +115 -3.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +4.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -17.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Rhett Lowder Home: Michael Soroka
ERA: 5.17 ERA: 2.93
WHIP: 1.49 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 7.31 K/9: 8.61
BB/9: 3.74 BB/9: 2.05
FIP: 4.4 FIP: 2.72
IP: 101.0 IP: 92.0
xERA: 5.14 xERA: 4.08
xwOBA: 0.346 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Michael Soroka)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN ARI Lg Avg
Record 61-68 68-61
R/Game 4.05 4.56 4.47
RA/Game 4.81 4.46 4.47
OPS 0.694 0.717 0.718
wOBA 0.300 0.308 0.309
ERA 4.51 4.14 4.16
FIP 4.50 4.25 4.04
WHIP 1.41 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.18 6.86 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.422 0.510 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.63 3.65 4.21
BP FIP 4.63 3.65 4.08
BP WHIP 1.45 1.22
BP K/9 8.73 7.43
BP Quality* 57.1 41.6 46.2
BP IP 480.3 404.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Julian Garcia (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.3 - ARI 5.6
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.3 - ARI 5.6
Win Probability: CIN 28.5% - ARI 71.5%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +251 / ARI -251
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.0: 50.8%
Under 8.0: 40.2%
CIN +1.5: 43.8%
ARI -1.5: 56.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 1.8 - ARI 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 1.8 - ARI 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CIN 29.6% - ARI 70.4% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +238 / ARI -238
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +153 +251 -11.0%
ARI ML -165 -251 +9.2%
CIN +1.5 -147 +128 -15.7%
ARI -1.5 +122 -128 +11.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -1.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -12.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +122 | Edge: 11.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01100
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | August 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tanner Bibee Home: Gabriel Hughes
ERA: 4.01 ERA: 6.69
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 7.0 K/9: 7.88
BB/9: 2.57 BB/9: 3.11
FIP: 4.56 FIP: 3.42
IP: 150.3 IP: 37.7
xERA: 4.32 xERA: 3.41
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.287
Pitcher Edge: COL (Gabriel Hughes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE COL Lg Avg
Record 63-66 50-78
R/Game 4.00 4.78 4.47
RA/Game 4.12 5.80 4.47
OPS 0.684 0.740 0.718
wOBA 0.298 0.318 0.309
ERA 3.76 5.54 4.16
FIP 3.79 4.73 4.04
WHIP 1.27 1.52 1.30
K/9 9.49 6.96 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.487 0.413 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.71 5.09 4.21
BP FIP 3.62 4.35 4.08
BP WHIP 1.31 1.52
BP K/9 9.98 7.32
BP Quality* 47.9 55.0 46.2
BP IP 433.7 314.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Zach Agnos (48 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Mark Manfredi (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 16 mph (gusts 32 mph)
Precip Chance: 24%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), strong wind in (16 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9655 (Temp: 1.0121 | Wind: 0.9539)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.7 - COL 5.6
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.7 - COL 5.6
Win Probability: CLE 41.7% - COL 58.3%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +140 / COL -140
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 11.0: 38.3%
Under 11.0: 53.9%
CLE -1.5: 28.6%
COL +1.5: 71.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.5 - COL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.5 - COL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: CLE 41.1% - COL 58.9% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +144 / COL -144
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML -136 +140 -15.9%
COL ML +127 -140 +14.2%
CLE -1.5 +104 +249 -20.4%
COL +1.5 -126 -249 +15.6%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -14.1%
U 11.0 -110 N/A +1.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -126 | Edge: 15.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01101
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | August 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dean Kremer Home: Casey Mize
ERA: 5.4 ERA: 3.18
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 8.94 K/9: 8.38
BB/9: 2.7 BB/9: 2.21
FIP: 5.18 FIP: 2.86
IP: 53.3 IP: 102.0
xERA: 4.17 xERA: 3.32
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.283
Pitcher Edge: SD (Casey Mize)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN SD Lg Avg
Record 63-66 69-60
R/Game 4.60 4.26 4.47
RA/Game 4.95 4.20 4.47
OPS 0.723 0.704 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.304 0.309
ERA 4.63 4.03 4.16
FIP 4.15 4.03 4.04
WHIP 1.38 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.43 8.24 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.506 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.43 2.82 4.21
BP FIP 3.92 2.98 4.08
BP WHIP 1.42 1.15
BP K/9 8.66 10.96
BP Quality* 46.8 34.4 46.2
BP IP 561.3 267.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0126 (Temp: 1.0111 | Wind: 1.0015)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 3.3 - SD 4.7
Simulated Avg: MIN 3.3 - SD 4.7
Win Probability: MIN 35.4% - SD 64.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +183 / SD -183
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.5: 41.7%
Under 8.5: 58.3%
MIN +1.5: 52.8%
SD -1.5: 47.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 1.8 - SD 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 1.8 - SD 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIN 35.0% - SD 65.0% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +186 / SD -186
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +126 +183 -8.9%
SD ML -135 -183 +7.2%
MIN +1.5 -175 -112 -10.8%
SD -1.5 +144 +112 +6.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -10.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +5.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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