2026-08-23
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-23
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | August 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Martinez Home: Shane Baz
ERA: 3.05 ERA: 4.02
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 5.27 K/9: 8.16
BB/9: 1.4 BB/9: 3.03
FIP: 3.95 FIP: 3.28
IP: 141.7 IP: 145.7
xERA: 4.49 xERA: 4.08
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Shane Baz)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB BAL Lg Avg
Record 76-53 63-67
R/Game 4.53 4.48 4.47
RA/Game 4.20 4.73 4.47
OPS 0.736 0.715 0.718
wOBA 0.315 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.85 4.20 4.16
FIP 4.00 3.99 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.34 1.30
K/9 8.26 8.05 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.534 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 4.37 4.21
BP FIP 4.18 3.85 4.07
BP WHIP 1.18 1.32
BP K/9 8.50 8.69
BP Quality* 45.1 48.4 46.2
BP IP 410.0 432.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Blaze Alexander, Tyler O'Neill
Blaze Alexander Third Base OPS: 0.807 (221 AB)
Tyler O'Neill Outfielder OPS: 0.677 (231 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0115 (Temp: 1.0156 | Wind: 0.9960)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.4 - BAL 4.3
Simulated Avg: TB 4.4 - BAL 4.3
Win Probability: TB 50.9% - BAL 49.0%
Fair Moneyline: TB -104 / BAL +104
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 9.0: 39.8%
Under 9.0: 51.1%
TB -1.5: 34.9%
BAL +1.5: 65.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.3 - BAL 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.3 - BAL 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TB 49.6% - BAL 50.4% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +101 / BAL -101
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -104 -104 -0.0%
BAL ML -104 +104 -1.9%
TB -1.5 +145 +186 -5.9%
BAL +1.5 -176 -186 +1.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -12.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -1.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | August 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Leahy Home: Cristopher Sánchez
ERA: 3.24 ERA: 2.51
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 8.17 K/9: 10.41
BB/9: 2.57 BB/9: 2.12
FIP: 3.42 FIP: 2.54
IP: 122.3 IP: 161.7
xERA: 4.94 xERA: 3.34
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL PHI Lg Avg
Record 66-65 72-58
R/Game 4.44 4.56 4.47
RA/Game 4.44 4.37 4.47
OPS 0.699 0.718 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.12 4.11 4.16
FIP 3.93 3.62 4.04
WHIP 1.33 1.30 1.30
K/9 7.79 9.98 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.500 0.520 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.27 4.18 4.21
BP FIP 4.13 3.54 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.33
BP K/9 7.89 10.03
BP Quality* 48.4 43.1 46.2
BP IP 487.0 447.7
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Fernandez (35 pitches yesterday)
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Everson Pereira, Bryan Torres, Nathan Church, Masyn Winn
Everson Pereira Outfielder OPS: 0.748 (98 AB)
Bryan Torres Outfielder OPS: 0.676 (119 AB)
Nathan Church Outfielder OPS: 0.645 (331 AB)
Masyn Winn Shortstop OPS: 0.640 (432 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.3% of full strength
PHI (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Luis Arraez, Derek Hill, Alec Bohm
Luis Arraez Second Base OPS: 0.800 (493 AB)
Derek Hill Outfielder OPS: 0.716 (168 AB)
Alec Bohm Third Base OPS: 0.695 (464 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0015 (Temp: 1.0114 | Wind: 0.9902)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 3.3 - PHI 4.4
Simulated Avg: STL 3.3 - PHI 4.5
Win Probability: STL 37.7% - PHI 62.3%
Fair Moneyline: STL +165 / PHI -165
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.0: 40.3%
Under 8.0: 50.1%
STL +1.5: 55.7%
PHI -1.5: 44.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 1.6 - PHI 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 1.6 - PHI 2.3
F5 Win Prob: STL 36.4% - PHI 63.6% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +175 / PHI -175
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +192 +165 +3.5%
PHI ML -207 -165 -5.2%
STL +1.5 -119 -126 +1.4%
PHI -1.5 -102 +126 -6.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -12.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -2.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: José Soriano Home: Carlos Rodón
ERA: 3.23 ERA: 3.22
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 8.78 K/9: 10.01
BB/9: 4.0 BB/9: 5.01
FIP: 3.7 FIP: 3.58
IP: 139.3 IP: 50.3
xERA: 4.49 xERA: 3.78
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR NYY Lg Avg
Record 64-67 73-56
R/Game 3.95 4.43 4.47
RA/Game 4.34 3.69 4.47
OPS 0.687 0.714 0.718
wOBA 0.296 0.307 0.310
ERA 3.95 3.21 4.16
FIP 3.87 3.54 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.79 9.05 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.458 0.582 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.83 2.69 4.21
BP FIP 4.04 3.70 4.07
BP WHIP 1.33 1.15
BP K/9 8.17 8.47
BP Quality* 47.7 40.8 46.2
BP IP 282.0 394.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Spencer Miles (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Bradley Hanner (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Yerry De los Santos (44 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Luis Urías, Jesús Sánchez, Yohendrick Piñango, Brandon Valenzuela
Luis Urías Second Base OPS: 0.803 (52 AB)
Jesús Sánchez Outfielder OPS: 0.749 (250 AB)
Yohendrick Piñango Outfielder OPS: 0.702 (169 AB)
Brandon Valenzuela Catcher OPS: 0.696 (209 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.8% of full strength
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton
Aaron Judge Outfielder OPS: 0.908 (214 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt First Base OPS: 0.758 (304 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 18%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9816 (Temp: 1.0083 | Wind: 0.9736)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.0 - NYY 3.9
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.0 - NYY 3.9
Win Probability: TOR 39.2% - NYY 60.8%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +155 / NYY -155
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 8.0: 31.5%
Under 8.0: 58.8%
TOR +1.5: 58.7%
NYY -1.5: 41.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 1.7 - NYY 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.7 - NYY 2.1
F5 Win Prob: TOR 42.2% - NYY 57.8% (Tie: 19.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +137 / NYY -137
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +120 +155 -6.2%
NYY ML -129 -155 +4.5%
TOR +1.5 -193 -142 -7.1%
NYY -1.5 +158 +142 +2.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -20.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +6.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | August 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jackson Kent Home: Janson Junk
ERA: 9.39 ERA: 4.37
WHIP: 2.48 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 10.57 K/9: 6.41
BB/9: 9.39 BB/9: 2.53
FIP: 5.57 FIP: 4.2
IP: 7.7 IP: 92.7
xERA: 6.29 xERA: 4.2
xwOBA: 0.377 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Janson Junk)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH MIA Lg Avg
Record 61-70 66-64
R/Game 5.19 4.36 4.47
RA/Game 5.08 4.23 4.47
OPS 0.755 0.728 0.718
wOBA 0.323 0.315 0.310
ERA 4.67 3.92 4.16
FIP 4.57 3.83 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.25 1.30
K/9 7.78 8.44 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.514 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.78 4.46 4.21
BP FIP 5.00 3.80 4.07
BP WHIP 1.59 1.32
BP K/9 8.75 9.04
BP Quality* 62.1 50.1 46.2
BP IP 439.0 419.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tom Cosgrove (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0008 (Temp: 1.0264 | Wind: 0.9751)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 5.0 - MIA 5.6
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.0 - MIA 5.6
Win Probability: WSH 44.4% - MIA 55.6%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +125 / MIA -125
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 8.0: 63.2%
Under 8.0: 28.7%
WSH +1.5: 58.9%
MIA -1.5: 41.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.7 - MIA 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.7 - MIA 3.1
F5 Win Prob: WSH 44.9% - MIA 55.1% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +123 / MIA -123
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +143 +125 +3.3%
MIA ML -154 -125 -5.0%
WSH +1.5 -157 -143 -2.2%
MIA -1.5 +130 +143 -2.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +10.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -23.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01102
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | August 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob Waguespack Home: Daniel Lynch IV
ERA: 1.95 ERA: 2.83
WHIP: 0.83 WHIP: 1.02
K/9: 5.2 K/9: 6.83
BB/9: 2.93 BB/9: 2.67
FIP: 5.27 FIP: 3.43
IP: 27.7 IP: 54.0
xERA: 2.98 xERA: 3.62
xwOBA: 0.269 xwOBA: 0.295
Pitcher Edge: KC (Daniel Lynch IV)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET KC Lg Avg
Record 61-68 57-74
R/Game 4.50 4.19 4.47
RA/Game 3.90 4.92 4.47
OPS 0.722 0.711 0.718
wOBA 0.312 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.56 4.71 4.16
FIP 3.80 4.53 4.04
WHIP 1.21 1.40 1.30
K/9 8.32 7.48 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.565 0.427 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 6.04 4.21
BP FIP 4.36 5.49 4.07
BP WHIP 1.34 1.64
BP K/9 8.28 7.61
BP Quality* 47.3 65.9 46.2
BP IP 339.3 487.0
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
KC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Michael Massey, Maikel Garcia, Carter Jensen
Michael Massey Second Base OPS: 0.751 (338 AB)
Maikel Garcia Third Base OPS: 0.709 (283 AB)
Carter Jensen Catcher OPS: 0.704 (424 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0403 (Temp: 1.0198 | Wind: 1.0201)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 4.8 - KC 3.5
Simulated Avg: DET 4.8 - KC 3.5
Win Probability: DET 62.9% - KC 37.1%
Fair Moneyline: DET -169 / KC +169
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 44.5%
Under 8.5: 55.5%
DET -1.5: 46.1%
KC +1.5: 53.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.0 - KC 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.1 - KC 1.6
F5 Win Prob: DET 59.2% - KC 40.8% (Tie: 19.7%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -145 / KC +145
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML -111 -169 +10.3%
KC ML +103 +169 -12.1%
DET -1.5 +139 +117 +4.3%
KC +1.5 -169 -117 -8.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Detroit Tigers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -111 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01103
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | August 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brady Basso Home: Cristian Javier
ERA: 3.91 ERA: 6.44
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.68
K/9: 7.43 K/9: 7.43
BB/9: 1.17 BB/9: 4.21
FIP: 2.97 FIP: 5.36
IP: 23.0 IP: 36.3
xERA: 3.67 xERA: 5.53
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.357
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Brady Basso)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH HOU Lg Avg
Record 50-80 65-65
R/Game 4.32 4.54 4.47
RA/Game 5.76 4.87 4.47
OPS 0.717 0.727 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.310 0.310
ERA 5.48 4.62 4.16
FIP 4.79 4.46 4.04
WHIP 1.51 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.55 8.83 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.371 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.91 4.20 4.21
BP FIP 4.64 4.29 4.07
BP WHIP 1.61 1.29
BP K/9 9.13 9.10
BP Quality* 57.9 49.5 46.2
BP IP 481.0 459.0
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 1 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0398 (Temp: 1.0372 | Wind: 1.0025)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 5.5 - HOU 5.8
Simulated Avg: ATH 5.5 - HOU 5.8
Win Probability: ATH 47.4% - HOU 52.6%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +111 / HOU -111
Avg Total Runs: 11.2
Over 9.0: 60.5%
Under 9.0: 31.8%
ATH +1.5: 61.2%
HOU -1.5: 38.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 3.4 - HOU 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 3.4 - HOU 3.1
F5 Win Prob: ATH 53.8% - HOU 46.2% (Tie: 13.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH -116 / HOU +116
F5 Avg Total: 6.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +159 +111 +8.8%
HOU ML -171 -111 -10.5%
ATH +1.5 -135 -158 +3.7%
HOU -1.5 +112 +158 -8.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +8.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -20.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.2%
Fair ML: -153 | Kelly: 4.28%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01104
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | August 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nolan McLean Home: Sean Newcomb
ERA: 3.34 ERA: 2.44
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 10.22 K/9: 8.23
BB/9: 3.41 BB/9: 3.47
FIP: 3.33 FIP: 2.8
IP: 142.7 IP: 70.0
xERA: 3.7 xERA: 3.86
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.304
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Newcomb)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM CWS Lg Avg
Record 59-71 67-62
R/Game 4.19 4.78 4.47
RA/Game 4.49 4.45 4.47
OPS 0.699 0.728 0.718
wOBA 0.302 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.08 4.11 4.16
FIP 3.90 4.06 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.30 1.30
K/9 9.12 8.51 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.532 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.12 4.37 4.21
BP FIP 4.26 4.51 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.37
BP K/9 9.19 8.13
BP Quality* 48.2 53.7 46.2
BP IP 238.0 278.0
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Austin Warren (32 pitches yesterday)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Schweitzer (51 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0480 (Temp: 1.0013 | Wind: 1.0466)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.9 - CWS 4.7
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.9 - CWS 4.7
Win Probability: NYM 41.7% - CWS 58.3%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +140 / CWS -140
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.0: 48.1%
Under 8.0: 42.6%
NYM -1.5: 26.6%
CWS +1.5: 73.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 1.8 - CWS 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.8 - CWS 2.3
F5 Win Prob: NYM 39.9% - CWS 60.1% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +151 / CWS -151
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML -104 +140 -9.3%
CWS ML -104 -140 +7.3%
NYM -1.5 +153 +276 -12.9%
CWS +1.5 -186 -276 +8.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | August 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Yusei Kikuchi Home: Cal Quantrill
ERA: 5.81 ERA: 3.13
WHIP: 1.58 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 9.58 K/9: 6.26
BB/9: 4.06 BB/9: 2.55
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 4.07
IP: 31.0 IP: 77.7
xERA: 4.94 xERA: 4.08
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Yusei Kikuchi)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA TEX Lg Avg
Record 52-78 64-66
R/Game 4.11 3.97 4.47
RA/Game 4.63 4.34 4.47
OPS 0.685 0.705 0.718
wOBA 0.297 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.26 4.20 4.16
FIP 4.02 3.96 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.16 8.64 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.445 0.459 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.50 4.45 4.21
BP FIP 4.24 4.25 4.07
BP WHIP 1.39 1.37
BP K/9 9.11 8.17
BP Quality* 49.6 52.5 46.2
BP IP 326.0 418.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 4.3 - TEX 4.7
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.3 - TEX 4.7
Win Probability: LAA 46.4% - TEX 53.6%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +116 / TEX -116
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.0: 51.6%
Under 8.0: 39.3%
LAA +1.5: 62.7%
TEX -1.5: 37.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.2 - TEX 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.2 - TEX 2.6
F5 Win Prob: LAA 43.1% - TEX 56.9% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +132 / TEX -132
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +143 +116 +5.2%
TEX ML -154 -116 -7.0%
LAA +1.5 -157 -168 +1.6%
TEX -1.5 +130 +168 -6.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | August 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Foster Griffin Home: Tomoyuki Sugano
ERA: 3.18 ERA: 4.7
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 8.17 K/9: 5.23
BB/9: 2.18 BB/9: 2.05
FIP: 4.08 FIP: 5.47
IP: 144.3 IP: 118.7
xERA: 4.17 xERA: 7.05
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.395
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Foster Griffin)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE COL Lg Avg
Record 64-66 50-79
R/Game 4.00 4.77 4.47
RA/Game 4.11 5.78 4.47
OPS 0.682 0.739 0.718
wOBA 0.297 0.318 0.310
ERA 3.76 5.53 4.16
FIP 3.79 4.73 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.52 1.30
K/9 9.49 6.94 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.488 0.413 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.71 5.06 4.21
BP FIP 3.64 4.33 4.07
BP WHIP 1.31 1.52
BP K/9 9.98 7.29
BP Quality* 48.0 51.8 46.2
BP IP 436.7 318.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9992 (Temp: 1.0270 | Wind: 0.9729)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 5.8 - COL 5.5
Simulated Avg: CLE 5.8 - COL 5.5
Win Probability: CLE 52.9% - COL 47.1%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -112 / COL +112
Avg Total Runs: 11.3
Over 11.5: 45.1%
Under 11.5: 54.9%
CLE -1.5: 39.4%
COL +1.5: 60.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 3.5 - COL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 3.5 - COL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: CLE 58.7% - COL 41.3% (Tie: 13.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -142 / COL +142
F5 Avg Total: 6.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -163 -112 -9.1%
COL ML +152 +112 +7.4%
CLE -1.5 -114 +154 -13.9%
COL +1.5 -106 -154 +9.2%
O 11.5 -110 N/A -7.3%
U 11.5 -110 N/A +2.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line) [-106]
Model: 60.6% | Market: 51.5% | Edge: 9.2%
Fair ML: -154 | Kelly: 4.73%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01105
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | August 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Matt Wilkinson Home: Jake Bennett
ERA: 0.0 ERA: 3.46
WHIP: 0.5 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 0.0 K/9: 6.81
BB/9: 0.0 BB/9: 1.9
FIP: 3.1 FIP: 3.19
IP: 2.0 IP: 80.7
xERA: 1.69 xERA: 3.19
xwOBA: 0.201 xwOBA: 0.278
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF BOS Lg Avg
Record 52-77 70-59
R/Game 4.02 4.53 4.47
RA/Game 4.64 3.77 4.47
OPS 0.710 0.730 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.35 3.51 4.16
FIP 4.02 3.55 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.22 1.30
K/9 7.69 8.67 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.436 0.583 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.80 3.14 4.21
BP FIP 4.36 3.34 4.07
BP WHIP 1.51 1.22
BP K/9 7.11 9.33
BP Quality* 54.3 38.0 46.2
BP IP 322.7 350.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 13%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0244 (Temp: 0.9980 | Wind: 1.0265)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 3.4 - BOS 4.8
Simulated Avg: SF 3.4 - BOS 4.8
Win Probability: SF 35.1% - BOS 64.9%
Fair Moneyline: SF +185 / BOS -185
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 44.0%
Under 8.5: 56.0%
SF +1.5: 52.3%
BOS -1.5: 47.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 1.9 - BOS 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.9 - BOS 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SF 42.3% - BOS 57.7% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +136 / BOS -136
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +191 +185 +0.7%
BOS ML -206 -185 -2.4%
SF +1.5 -115 -110 -1.2%
BOS -1.5 -105 +110 -3.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | August 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Lake Bachar Home: Blake Snell
ERA: 3.75 ERA: 3.6
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 9.43 K/9: 12.0
BB/9: 3.49 BB/9: 3.6
FIP: 4.41 FIP: 1.63
IP: 69.7 IP: 15.0
xERA: 3.59 xERA: 2.16
xwOBA: 0.294 xwOBA: 0.229
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Blake Snell)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT LAD Lg Avg
Record 63-68 79-51
R/Game 4.98 4.99 4.47
RA/Game 4.76 3.86 4.47
OPS 0.740 0.763 0.718
wOBA 0.321 0.326 0.310
ERA 4.29 3.70 4.16
FIP 3.74 3.77 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.16 1.30
K/9 9.40 9.24 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.521 0.615 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.72 4.14 4.21
BP FIP 3.61 3.89 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.30
BP K/9 9.73 9.84
BP Quality* 45.1 46.0 46.2
BP IP 426.3 409.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Evan Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0269 (Temp: 1.0379 | Wind: 0.9893)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 4.5 - LAD 4.9
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.5 - LAD 4.9
Win Probability: PIT 46.1% - LAD 53.9%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +117 / LAD -117
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.5: 55.0%
Under 8.5: 45.0%
PIT +1.5: 62.1%
LAD -1.5: 37.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.4 - LAD 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.4 - LAD 2.6
F5 Win Prob: PIT 46.0% - LAD 54.0% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +117 / LAD -117
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +249 +117 +17.5%
LAD ML -271 -117 -19.2%
PIT +1.5 +104 -164 +13.1%
LAD -1.5 -126 +164 -17.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -7.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +104 | Edge: 13.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01106
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | August 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shota Imanaga Home: Bryce Miller
ERA: 3.77 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 8.79 K/9: 8.73
BB/9: 2.01 BB/9: 1.81
FIP: 4.45 FIP: 3.94
IP: 143.3 IP: 89.7
xERA: 3.8 xERA: 3.03
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryce Miller)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC SEA Lg Avg
Record 74-56 62-68
R/Game 5.12 3.93 4.47
RA/Game 4.36 4.27 4.47
OPS 0.757 0.684 0.718
wOBA 0.326 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.15 4.01 4.16
FIP 4.57 3.72 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.23 1.30
K/9 7.73 8.68 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.572 0.462 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.39 4.03 4.21
BP FIP 4.50 3.99 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.34
BP K/9 8.46 9.14
BP Quality* 50.2 49.4 46.2
BP IP 506.3 393.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Carlos Vargas (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0068 (Temp: 0.9996 | Wind: 1.0072)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 4.5 - SEA 3.9
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.5 - SEA 3.9
Win Probability: CHC 55.6% - SEA 44.4%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -125 / SEA +125
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.5: 55.1%
Under 7.5: 44.9%
CHC -1.5: 39.2%
SEA +1.5: 60.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.3 - SEA 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.3 - SEA 2.0
F5 Win Prob: CHC 54.3% - SEA 45.7% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -119 / SEA +119
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -113 -125 +2.5%
SEA ML +105 +125 -4.4%
CHC -1.5 +144 +155 -1.7%
SEA +1.5 -175 -155 -2.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | August 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bailey Ober Home: Walker Buehler
ERA: 4.62 ERA: 4.79
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 6.18 K/9: 7.78
BB/9: 2.26 BB/9: 3.66
FIP: 4.62 FIP: 4.11
IP: 103.3 IP: 120.3
xERA: 4.71 xERA: 4.25
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.318
Pitcher Edge: SD (Walker Buehler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN SD Lg Avg
Record 63-67 70-60
R/Game 4.61 4.28 4.47
RA/Game 4.97 4.21 4.47
OPS 0.724 0.706 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.65 4.04 4.16
FIP 4.15 4.06 4.04
WHIP 1.38 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.45 8.20 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.465 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 2.80 4.21
BP FIP 3.90 2.97 4.07
BP WHIP 1.42 1.14
BP K/9 8.68 10.95
BP Quality* 46.8 37.3 46.2
BP IP 564.0 269.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Griffin Canning (46 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0380 (Temp: 1.0220 | Wind: 1.0156)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 4.2 - SD 4.7
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.2 - SD 4.7
Win Probability: MIN 45.4% - SD 54.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +120 / SD -120
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.0: 42.1%
Under 9.0: 49.1%
MIN +1.5: 61.9%
SD -1.5: 38.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.6 - SD 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.6 - SD 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIN 49.3% - SD 50.7% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +103 / SD -103
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +126 +120 +1.1%
SD ML -136 -120 -3.0%
MIN +1.5 -171 -163 -1.2%
SD -1.5 +141 +163 -3.4%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -10.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -3.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Abbott Home: Mitch Bratt
ERA: 4.07 ERA: 4.17
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 6.98 K/9: 6.14
BB/9: 4.26 BB/9: 5.4
FIP: 4.65 FIP: 5.31
IP: 139.3 IP: 36.7
xERA: 4.65 xERA: 4.05
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Andrew Abbott)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN ARI Lg Avg
Record 62-68 68-62
R/Game 4.11 4.56 4.47
RA/Game 4.82 4.51 4.47
OPS 0.699 0.718 0.718
wOBA 0.302 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.51 4.20 4.16
FIP 4.51 4.29 4.04
WHIP 1.41 1.29 1.30
K/9 8.15 6.87 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.428 0.505 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.62 3.65 4.21
BP FIP 4.62 3.66 4.07
BP WHIP 1.45 1.22
BP K/9 8.73 7.48
BP Quality* 54.0 44.6 46.2
BP IP 483.3 406.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Zack Littell (63 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 4.2 - ARI 5.2
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.2 - ARI 5.3
Win Probability: CIN 40.5% - ARI 59.5%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +147 / ARI -147
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 9.0: 46.9%
Under 9.0: 44.2%
CIN +1.5: 56.3%
ARI -1.5: 43.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.5 - ARI 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.5 - ARI 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CIN 45.8% - ARI 54.2% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +119 / ARI -119
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +120 +147 -4.9%
ARI ML -129 -147 +3.2%
CIN +1.5 -181 -129 -8.1%
ARI -1.5 +149 +129 +3.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -5.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -8.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Mahle Home: Shane Drohan
ERA: 4.53 ERA: 3.86
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 8.58 K/9: 8.88
BB/9: 3.18 BB/9: 2.96
FIP: 4.09 FIP: 3.28
IP: 113.3 IP: 100.3
xERA: 4.17 xERA: 3.62
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.295
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Shane Drohan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL MIL Lg Avg
Record 75-55 81-49
R/Game 4.69 4.98 4.47
RA/Game 3.86 3.73 4.47
OPS 0.721 0.733 0.718
wOBA 0.310 0.316 0.310
ERA 3.61 3.42 4.16
FIP 3.98 3.44 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.63 9.75 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.588 0.630 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.37 3.50 4.21
BP FIP 3.53 3.51 4.07
BP WHIP 1.18 1.26
BP K/9 9.30 8.91
BP Quality* 42.3 45.0 46.2
BP IP 393.0 440.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Brent Suter (B2B, 34 pitches)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0201 (Temp: 0.9988 | Wind: 1.0214)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 4.2 - MIL 5.0
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.2 - MIL 5.0
Win Probability: ATL 42.1% - MIL 57.9%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +137 / MIL -137
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 7.5: 62.1%
Under 7.5: 37.9%
ATL +1.5: 58.2%
MIL -1.5: 41.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.2 - MIL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.2 - MIL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: ATL 40.1% - MIL 59.9% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +150 / MIL -150
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML +114 +137 -4.6%
MIL ML -123 -137 +2.7%
ATL +1.5 -199 -139 -8.4%
MIL -1.5 +163 +139 +3.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +9.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -14.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.8%
Fair ML: -164 | Kelly: 5.12%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01107