2026-08-24
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-24
Games: 10 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | August 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Drew Rasmussen Home: Framber Valdez
ERA: 3.01 ERA: 4.35
WHIP: 0.95 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 9.25 K/9: 7.2
BB/9: 1.67 BB/9: 3.5
FIP: 2.86 FIP: 3.89
IP: 134.3 IP: 138.7
xERA: 3.12 xERA: 4.44
xwOBA: 0.275 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB DET Lg Avg
Record 77-53 61-69
R/Game 4.52 4.52 4.47
RA/Game 4.18 3.95 4.47
OPS 0.734 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.313 0.310
ERA 3.83 3.62 4.16
FIP 3.99 3.81 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.22 1.30
K/9 8.23 8.32 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.536 0.560 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.75 4.33 4.23
BP FIP 4.20 4.40 4.07
BP WHIP 1.18 1.36
BP K/9 8.46 8.29
BP Quality* 48.2 51.3 46.2
BP IP 413.0 347.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ty Madden (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Sears (74 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0027 (Temp: 1.0030 | Wind: 0.9997)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.6 - DET 3.9
Simulated Avg: TB 4.6 - DET 3.9
Win Probability: TB 57.3% - DET 42.7%
Fair Moneyline: TB -134 / DET +134
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 56.5%
Under 7.5: 43.5%
TB -1.5: 40.7%
DET +1.5: 59.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.5 - DET 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.5 - DET 1.8
F5 Win Prob: TB 62.1% - DET 37.9% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -164 / DET +164
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -130 -134 +0.7%
DET ML +121 +134 -2.5%
TB -1.5 +123 +145 -4.1%
DET +1.5 -149 -145 -0.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +4.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | August 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ranger Suarez Home: Sandy Alcantara
ERA: 3.41 ERA: 3.46
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 8.97 K/9: 6.67
BB/9: 2.62 BB/9: 2.39
FIP: 2.78 FIP: 3.74
IP: 113.3 IP: 176.7
xERA: 3.62 xERA: 3.67
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS MIA Lg Avg
Record 71-59 67-64
R/Game 4.53 4.37 4.47
RA/Game 3.77 4.21 4.47
OPS 0.731 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.315 0.310
ERA 3.51 3.90 4.16
FIP 3.55 3.82 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.65 8.43 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.583 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.12 4.44 4.23
BP FIP 3.33 3.79 4.07
BP WHIP 1.22 1.32
BP K/9 9.31 9.05
BP Quality* 39.4 56.0 46.2
BP IP 352.0 423.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
UNAVAIL: Calvin Faucher (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Ralston (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0070 (Temp: 1.0204 | Wind: 0.9868)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 4.2 - MIA 3.4
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.2 - MIA 3.4
Win Probability: BOS 58.7% - MIA 41.3%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -142 / MIA +142
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.0: 48.4%
Under 7.0: 41.4%
BOS -1.5: 40.8%
MIA +1.5: 59.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.0 - MIA 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.0 - MIA 1.8
F5 Win Prob: BOS 54.9% - MIA 45.1% (Tie: 19.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -122 / MIA +122
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -123 -142 +3.5%
MIA ML +115 +142 -5.2%
BOS -1.5 +134 +145 -2.0%
MIA +1.5 -162 -145 -2.6%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -4.0%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -11.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | August 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Feltner Home: Cade Cavalli
ERA: 5.97 ERA: 3.22
WHIP: 1.53 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 6.26 K/9: 10.22
BB/9: 3.82 BB/9: 2.65
FIP: 5.67 FIP: 3.08
IP: 92.0 IP: 142.7
xERA: 5.57 xERA: 3.83
xwOBA: 0.358 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Cade Cavalli)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL WSH Lg Avg
Record 50-80 61-71
R/Game 4.75 5.17 4.47
RA/Game 5.79 5.09 4.47
OPS 0.738 0.754 0.719
wOBA 0.317 0.323 0.310
ERA 5.54 4.68 4.16
FIP 4.72 4.56 4.04
WHIP 1.52 1.39 1.30
K/9 6.93 7.79 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.410 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.05 5.74 4.23
BP FIP 4.30 4.98 4.07
BP WHIP 1.51 1.58
BP K/9 7.28 8.72
BP Quality* 56.1 58.8 46.2
BP IP 322.7 434.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Nick Frasso (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mark Manfredi (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (35 pitches yesterday)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Trevor Williams (47 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0184 (Temp: 1.0114 | Wind: 1.0070)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 4.7 - WSH 6.9
Simulated Avg: COL 4.6 - WSH 6.8
Win Probability: COL 32.1% - WSH 67.8%
Fair Moneyline: COL +211 / WSH -211
Avg Total Runs: 11.5
Over 8.0: 69.7%
Under 8.0: 23.6%
COL +1.5: 45.6%
WSH -1.5: 54.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 2.1 - WSH 4.0
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.1 - WSH 4.0
F5 Win Prob: COL 25.4% - WSH 74.6% (Tie: 12.3%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +294 / WSH -294
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +169 +211 -5.0%
WSH ML -182 -211 +3.3%
COL +1.5 -136 +119 -12.0%
WSH -1.5 +113 -119 +7.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +17.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -28.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 17.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01108
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | August 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kumar Rocker Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX CWS Lg Avg
Record 65-66 68-62
R/Game 3.98 4.75 4.47
RA/Game 4.33 4.42 4.47
OPS 0.706 0.727 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.19 4.09 4.16
FIP 3.95 4.04 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.65 8.52 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.461 0.533 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.44 4.34 4.23
BP FIP 4.26 4.48 4.07
BP WHIP 1.36 1.36
BP K/9 8.20 8.16
BP Quality* 55.4 51.8 46.2
BP IP 421.3 280.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Winn (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erick Fedde (56 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0162 (Temp: 0.9957 | Wind: 1.0206)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 4.2 - CWS 5.6
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.2 - CWS 5.6
Win Probability: TEX 37.0% - CWS 63.0%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +171 / CWS -171
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.0: 57.5%
Under 8.0: 33.9%
TEX +1.5: 52.2%
CWS -1.5: 47.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 2.2 - CWS 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.2 - CWS 2.9
F5 Win Prob: TEX 39.1% - CWS 60.9% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +156 / CWS -156
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML +120 +171 -8.5%
CWS ML -129 -171 +6.7%
TEX +1.5 -188 -109 -13.1%
CWS -1.5 +154 +109 +8.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +5.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -18.5%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Chicago White Sox -1.5 (Run Line) [+154]
Model: 47.9% | Market: 39.4% | Edge: 8.5%
Fair ML: +109 | Kelly: 3.50%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01109
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Parker Messick Home: George Klassen
ERA: 2.54 ERA: 3.74
WHIP: 1.03 WHIP: 1.62
K/9: 9.18 K/9: 8.72
BB/9: 2.42 BB/9: 7.48
FIP: 3.09 FIP: 4.85
IP: 149.0 IP: 21.7
xERA: 2.94 xERA: 5.28
xwOBA: 0.267 xwOBA: 0.35
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE LAA Lg Avg
Record 65-66 52-79
R/Game 4.02 4.10 4.47
RA/Game 4.09 4.63 4.47
OPS 0.684 0.686 0.719
wOBA 0.298 0.297 0.310
ERA 3.75 4.27 4.16
FIP 3.78 4.02 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.48 9.17 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.492 0.444 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.68 4.46 4.23
BP FIP 3.61 4.21 4.07
BP WHIP 1.30 1.38
BP K/9 9.99 9.16
BP Quality* 46.2 50.8 46.2
BP IP 440.7 329.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9850 (Temp: 1.0090 | Wind: 0.9762)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 4.0 - LAA 3.4
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.0 - LAA 3.4
Win Probability: CLE 56.4% - LAA 43.6%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -129 / LAA +129
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.5: 46.4%
Under 7.5: 53.6%
CLE -1.5: 38.0%
LAA +1.5: 62.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 2.1 - LAA 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.1 - LAA 1.6
F5 Win Prob: CLE 60.9% - LAA 39.1% (Tie: 19.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -155 / LAA +155
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML -158 -129 -4.9%
LAA ML +147 +129 +3.2%
CLE -1.5 +104 +163 -11.0%
LAA +1.5 -126 -163 +6.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -6.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +1.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kevin Gausman Home: Merrill Kelly
ERA: 4.58 ERA: 5.37
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 8.98 K/9: 5.86
BB/9: 2.51 BB/9: 3.98
FIP: 3.57 FIP: 5.74
IP: 143.3 IP: 129.0
xERA: 4.03 xERA: 7.23
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.399
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Kevin Gausman)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC ARI Lg Avg
Record 75-56 69-62
R/Game 5.22 4.56 4.47
RA/Game 4.34 4.50 4.47
OPS 0.762 0.719 0.719
wOBA 0.328 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.12 4.19 4.16
FIP 4.56 4.27 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.29 1.30
K/9 7.73 6.90 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.583 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.36 3.60 4.23
BP FIP 4.48 3.63 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.21
BP K/9 8.45 7.55
BP Quality* 53.0 47.2 46.2
BP IP 509.3 412.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Aaron Civale (49 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Gerardo Carrillo (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 6.7 - ARI 4.9
Simulated Avg: CHC 6.7 - ARI 4.9
Win Probability: CHC 64.6% - ARI 35.4%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -183 / ARI +183
Avg Total Runs: 11.5
Over 9.0: 62.7%
Under 9.0: 30.0%
CHC -1.5: 51.7%
ARI +1.5: 48.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 4.3 - ARI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 4.3 - ARI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CHC 72.4% - ARI 27.6% (Tie: 11.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -262 / ARI +262
F5 Avg Total: 6.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -139 -183 +6.5%
ARI ML +130 +183 -8.1%
CHC -1.5 +113 -107 +4.7%
ARI +1.5 -136 +107 -9.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +10.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -22.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 9.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01110
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | August 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Braxton Ashcraft Home: Robbie Ray
ERA: 3.68 ERA: 3.2
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 9.58 K/9: 7.65
BB/9: 1.99 BB/9: 4.45
FIP: 3.46 FIP: 4.58
IP: 149.3 IP: 137.7
xERA: 3.36 xERA: 4.59
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT SD Lg Avg
Record 63-69 71-60
R/Game 4.95 4.31 4.47
RA/Game 4.76 4.18 4.47
OPS 0.738 0.707 0.719
wOBA 0.320 0.306 0.310
ERA 4.29 4.01 4.16
FIP 3.74 4.05 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.38 8.18 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.518 0.513 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.69 2.79 4.23
BP FIP 3.61 2.96 4.07
BP WHIP 1.31 1.14
BP K/9 9.68 10.94
BP Quality* 47.9 35.7 46.2
BP IP 429.3 270.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (61 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Khristian Curtis (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9868 (Temp: 1.0003 | Wind: 0.9865)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.2 - SD 3.8
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.2 - SD 3.8
Win Probability: PIT 53.7% - SD 46.3%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -116 / SD +116
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 7.5: 52.0%
Under 7.5: 47.9%
PIT -1.5: 36.7%
SD +1.5: 63.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.6 - SD 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.6 - SD 1.9
F5 Win Prob: PIT 62.2% - SD 37.8% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -164 / SD +164
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML -105 -116 +2.5%
SD ML -102 +116 -4.2%
PIT -1.5 +150 +172 -3.3%
SD +1.5 -182 -172 -1.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -0.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -4.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Athletics
Regular Season | August 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zebby Matthews Home: Jeffrey Springs
ERA: 5.12 ERA: 6.02
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.48
K/9: 7.54 K/9: 7.05
BB/9: 2.89 BB/9: 3.72
FIP: 4.94 FIP: 6.09
IP: 96.7 IP: 113.7
xERA: 4.68 xERA: 5.08
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.344
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Zebby Matthews)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN ATH Lg Avg
Record 63-68 51-80
R/Game 4.58 4.34 4.47
RA/Game 4.99 5.76 4.47
OPS 0.724 0.718 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.66 5.47 4.16
FIP 4.19 4.80 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.51 1.30
K/9 8.43 8.56 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.461 0.373 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.52 5.97 4.23
BP FIP 3.96 4.70 4.07
BP WHIP 1.43 1.61
BP K/9 8.67 9.23
BP Quality* 50.4 64.4 46.2
BP IP 567.0 461.0
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Travis Adams (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Luis Medina (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Jack Perkins (91 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9790 (Temp: 0.9882 | Wind: 0.9906)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 6.3 - ATH 5.1
Simulated Avg: MIN 6.3 - ATH 5.1
Win Probability: MIN 59.6% - ATH 40.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -147 / ATH +147
Avg Total Runs: 11.3
Over 10.5: 53.6%
Under 10.5: 46.4%
MIN -1.5: 46.2%
ATH +1.5: 53.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 3.5 - ATH 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 3.5 - ATH 2.9
F5 Win Prob: MIN 57.9% - ATH 42.1% (Tie: 13.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -137 / ATH +137
F5 Avg Total: 6.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML -153 -147 -0.9%
ATH ML +142 +147 -0.9%
MIN -1.5 -101 +116 -4.0%
ATH +1.5 -120 -116 -0.7%
O 10.5 -110 N/A +1.2%
U 10.5 -110 N/A -6.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | August 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zack Wheeler Home: Logan Gilbert
ERA: 2.92 ERA: 3.35
WHIP: 1.01 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 10.77 K/9: 9.4
BB/9: 2.47 BB/9: 2.22
FIP: 3.15 FIP: 3.48
IP: 120.3 IP: 150.3
xERA: 2.78 xERA: 3.7
xwOBA: 0.26 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI SEA Lg Avg
Record 73-58 62-69
R/Game 4.57 3.92 4.47
RA/Game 4.37 4.38 4.47
OPS 0.718 0.684 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.298 0.310
ERA 4.11 4.12 4.16
FIP 3.62 3.78 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.98 8.67 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.521 0.449 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 4.34 4.23
BP FIP 3.53 4.11 4.07
BP WHIP 1.33 1.37
BP K/9 10.03 9.02
BP Quality* 46.0 52.8 46.2
BP IP 448.7 400.0
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex McFarlane (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Michael Rucker (B2B, 33 pitches)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0368 (Temp: 1.0006 | Wind: 1.0361)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.2 - SEA 3.2
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.2 - SEA 3.2
Win Probability: PHI 60.7% - SEA 39.3%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -155 / SEA +155
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 6.5: 56.6%
Under 6.5: 43.4%
PHI -1.5: 42.8%
SEA +1.5: 57.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.1 - SEA 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.1 - SEA 1.5
F5 Win Prob: PHI 61.4% - SEA 38.6% (Tie: 19.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -159 / SEA +159
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -108 -155 +8.8%
SEA ML +101 +155 -10.5%
PHI -1.5 +158 +133 +4.1%
SEA +1.5 -193 -133 -8.7%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +4.2%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -9.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | August 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chase Burns Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN SF Lg Avg
Record 62-69 52-78
R/Game 4.10 4.02 4.47
RA/Game 4.82 4.64 4.47
OPS 0.699 0.709 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.52 4.36 4.16
FIP 4.50 4.02 4.04
WHIP 1.41 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.15 7.68 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.427 0.435 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.62 4.82 4.23
BP FIP 4.63 4.34 4.07
BP WHIP 1.45 1.51
BP K/9 8.72 7.08
BP Quality* 54.1 55.7 46.2
BP IP 485.3 330.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: JT Brubaker (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Trent Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9647 (Temp: 0.9856 | Wind: 0.9788)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 4.0 - SF 3.4
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.0 - SF 3.4
Win Probability: CIN 56.6% - SF 43.4%
Fair Moneyline: CIN -131 / SF +131
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.5: 45.7%
Under 7.5: 54.3%
CIN -1.5: 38.3%
SF +1.5: 61.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.1 - SF 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.0 - SF 1.4
F5 Win Prob: CIN 62.6% - SF 37.4% (Tie: 20.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN -167 / SF +167
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML -154 -131 -4.0%
SF ML +143 +131 +2.2%
CIN -1.5 +113 +161 -8.7%
SF +1.5 -136 -161 +4.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -6.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +1.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================