2026-08-25
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-25
Games: 15 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | August 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ian Seymour Home: Jackson Jobe
ERA: 4.17 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 10.92 K/9: 7.07
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 3.21
FIP: 3.93 FIP: 4.46
IP: 101.3 IP: 14.0
xERA: 3.7 xERA: 6.33
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.378
Pitcher Edge: TB (Ian Seymour)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB DET Lg Avg
Record 78-53 61-70
R/Game 4.51 4.49 4.47
RA/Game 4.15 3.95 4.47
OPS 0.735 0.721 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.81 3.61 4.16
FIP 3.97 3.82 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.22 1.30
K/9 8.26 8.28 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.538 0.558 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.72 4.30 4.23
BP FIP 4.16 4.40 4.07
BP WHIP 1.18 1.36
BP K/9 8.55 8.30
BP Quality* 49.4 49.7 46.2
BP IP 416.0 349.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Bryan Baker (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tanner Rainey (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9834 (Temp: 1.0075 | Wind: 0.9761)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.3 - DET 4.4
Simulated Avg: TB 4.3 - DET 4.4
Win Probability: TB 48.5% - DET 51.5%
Fair Moneyline: TB +106 / DET -106
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 7.5: 58.6%
Under 7.5: 41.4%
TB -1.5: 32.6%
DET +1.5: 67.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.3 - DET 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.3 - DET 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TB 49.9% - DET 50.1% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +101 / DET -101
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -125 +106 -7.0%
DET ML +116 -106 +5.2%
TB -1.5 +134 +207 -10.2%
DET +1.5 -162 -207 +5.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +6.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -11.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | August 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Payton Tolle Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS MIA Lg Avg
Record 72-59 67-65
R/Game 4.53 4.36 4.47
RA/Game 3.76 4.21 4.47
OPS 0.731 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.315 0.310
ERA 3.50 3.90 4.16
FIP 3.55 3.82 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.64 8.42 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.585 0.515 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.10 4.48 4.23
BP FIP 3.32 3.80 4.07
BP WHIP 1.22 1.32
BP K/9 9.31 9.03
BP Quality* 40.8 53.2 46.2
BP IP 354.0 425.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brayan Bello (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0072 (Temp: 1.0189 | Wind: 0.9885)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 4.4 - MIA 3.2
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.4 - MIA 3.2
Win Probability: BOS 62.2% - MIA 37.8%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -165 / MIA +165
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.5: 48.4%
Under 7.5: 51.6%
BOS -1.5: 44.6%
MIA +1.5: 55.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.3 - MIA 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.3 - MIA 1.6
F5 Win Prob: BOS 63.6% - MIA 36.4% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -175 / MIA +175
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -158 -165 +1.0%
MIA ML +147 +165 -2.7%
BOS -1.5 +104 +124 -4.5%
MIA +1.5 -126 -124 -0.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -3.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -0.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | August 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Andrew Alvarez
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL WSH Lg Avg
Record 50-81 62-71
R/Game 4.73 5.23 4.47
RA/Game 5.85 5.08 4.47
OPS 0.738 0.756 0.719
wOBA 0.317 0.324 0.310
ERA 5.59 4.67 4.16
FIP 4.73 4.57 4.04
WHIP 1.53 1.39 1.30
K/9 6.92 7.80 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.404 0.513 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.18 5.72 4.23
BP FIP 4.37 4.96 4.07
BP WHIP 1.53 1.58
BP K/9 7.23 8.72
BP Quality* 57.0 60.1 46.2
BP IP 325.0 437.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Blake Adams (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nick Frasso (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Tolman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0121 (Temp: 1.0128 | Wind: 0.9994)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 4.9 - WSH 5.8
Simulated Avg: COL 4.9 - WSH 5.8
Win Probability: COL 41.7% - WSH 58.3%
Fair Moneyline: COL +140 / WSH -140
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 8.5: 64.7%
Under 8.5: 35.3%
COL +1.5: 56.1%
WSH -1.5: 43.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 2.3 - WSH 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.3 - WSH 2.9
F5 Win Prob: COL 40.8% - WSH 59.2% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +145 / WSH -145
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +136 +140 -0.7%
WSH ML -146 -140 -1.1%
COL +1.5 -168 -128 -6.6%
WSH -1.5 +139 +128 +2.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +12.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -17.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01111
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ethan Pecko Home: Will Warren
ERA: 4.91 ERA: 4.43
WHIP: 1.64 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 9.82 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 7.36 BB/9: 3.17
FIP: 3.37 FIP: 4.18
IP: 3.7 IP: 122.0
xERA: 3.78 xERA: 4.68
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: 0.332
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Ethan Pecko)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU NYY Lg Avg
Record 65-66 74-56
R/Game 4.55 4.45 4.47
RA/Game 4.89 3.68 4.47
OPS 0.727 0.716 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.63 3.20 4.16
FIP 4.45 3.54 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.89 9.02 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.586 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.24 2.68 4.23
BP FIP 4.30 3.67 4.07
BP WHIP 1.30 1.15
BP K/9 9.11 8.43
BP Quality* 48.3 37.7 46.2
BP IP 462.3 399.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9946 (Temp: 1.0027 | Wind: 0.9919)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 4.3 - NYY 4.9
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.2 - NYY 5.0
Win Probability: HOU 43.0% - NYY 57.0%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +132 / NYY -132
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 53.2%
Under 8.5: 46.8%
HOU +1.5: 59.3%
NYY -1.5: 40.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.6 - NYY 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.6 - NYY 2.8
F5 Win Prob: HOU 47.5% - NYY 52.5% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +111 / NYY -111
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +131 +132 -0.3%
NYY ML -140 -132 -1.3%
HOU +1.5 -171 -146 -3.8%
NYY -1.5 +141 +146 -0.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | August 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Seth Lugo Home: Max Scherzer
ERA: 4.71 ERA: 7.4
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.51
K/9: 6.87 K/9: 6.4
BB/9: 2.85 BB/9: 4.0
FIP: 3.95 FIP: 6.48
IP: 145.3 IP: 45.0
xERA: 5.18 xERA: 4.68
xwOBA: 0.347 xwOBA: 0.332
Pitcher Edge: KC (Seth Lugo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC TOR Lg Avg
Record 58-74 64-68
R/Game 4.24 3.95 4.47
RA/Game 4.93 4.36 4.47
OPS 0.714 0.686 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.72 3.99 4.16
FIP 4.53 3.88 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.48 8.81 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.432 0.454 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.06 3.88 4.23
BP FIP 5.50 4.07 4.07
BP WHIP 1.65 1.33
BP K/9 7.63 8.20
BP Quality* 61.6 45.0 46.2
BP IP 491.7 283.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9877 (Temp: 0.9941 | Wind: 0.9935)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 5.2 - TOR 4.8
Simulated Avg: KC 5.2 - TOR 4.8
Win Probability: KC 53.7% - TOR 46.3%
Fair Moneyline: KC -116 / TOR +116
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 8.5: 59.6%
Under 8.5: 40.4%
KC +1.5: 68.3%
TOR -1.5: 31.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 3.4 - TOR 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 3.4 - TOR 2.4
F5 Win Prob: KC 63.9% - TOR 36.1% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -177 / TOR +177
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +116 -116 +7.4%
TOR ML -124 +116 -9.0%
KC +1.5 -194 -216 +2.3%
TOR -1.5 +159 +216 -6.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +7.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -12.0%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.6% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.2%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.79%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01112
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets
Regular Season | August 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Harrison Home: Zac Thornton
ERA: 2.84 ERA: 3.04
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 11.17 K/9: 6.44
BB/9: 2.38 BB/9: 2.5
FIP: 3.13 FIP: 4.05
IP: 98.3 IP: 50.3
xERA: 3.15 xERA: 4.85
xwOBA: 0.276 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Kyle Harrison)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL NYM Lg Avg
Record 81-50 59-72
R/Game 4.96 4.17 4.47
RA/Game 3.73 4.47 4.47
OPS 0.733 0.698 0.719
wOBA 0.316 0.301 0.310
ERA 3.42 4.07 4.16
FIP 3.44 3.89 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.30 1.30
K/9 9.75 9.13 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.627 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.48 4.12 4.23
BP FIP 3.52 4.22 4.07
BP WHIP 1.26 1.35
BP K/9 8.93 9.26
BP Quality* 43.5 49.5 46.2
BP IP 444.3 240.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: DL Hall (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kodai Senga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dedniel Núñez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9966 (Temp: 1.0023 | Wind: 0.9944)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 4.8 - NYM 3.4
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.8 - NYM 3.4
Win Probability: MIL 64.2% - NYM 35.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -179 / NYM +179
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 7.5: 53.3%
Under 7.5: 46.7%
MIL -1.5: 47.2%
NYM +1.5: 52.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.6 - NYM 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.6 - NYM 1.7
F5 Win Prob: MIL 66.2% - NYM 33.8% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -196 / NYM +196
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -159 -179 +2.8%
NYM ML +148 +179 -4.5%
MIL -1.5 +108 +112 -0.9%
NYM +1.5 -131 -112 -3.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -5.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Glasnow Home: Bryce Elder
ERA: 2.72 ERA: 3.92
WHIP: 0.83 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 11.12 K/9: 7.39
BB/9: 2.95 BB/9: 3.01
FIP: 3.25 FIP: 4.54
IP: 39.7 IP: 137.7
xERA: 2.61 xERA: 4.03
xwOBA: 0.252 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tyler Glasnow)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD ATL Lg Avg
Record 80-51 76-55
R/Game 4.98 4.69 4.47
RA/Game 3.83 3.85 4.47
OPS 0.761 0.722 0.719
wOBA 0.325 0.310 0.310
ERA 3.67 3.60 4.16
FIP 3.76 3.97 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.25 1.30
K/9 9.25 8.61 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.618 0.589 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 3.36 4.23
BP FIP 3.88 3.53 4.07
BP WHIP 1.29 1.18
BP K/9 9.85 9.25
BP Quality* 44.3 39.3 46.2
BP IP 412.0 397.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0330 (Temp: 1.0195 | Wind: 1.0132)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 4.9 - ATL 4.0
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.8 - ATL 4.1
Win Probability: LAD 57.4% - ATL 42.6%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -135 / ATL +135
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 50.7%
Under 8.5: 49.3%
LAD -1.5: 41.4%
ATL +1.5: 58.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 2.9 - ATL 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.9 - ATL 1.9
F5 Win Prob: LAD 65.7% - ATL 34.3% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -192 / ATL +192
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -148 -135 -2.3%
ATL ML +138 +135 +0.6%
LAD -1.5 +110 +142 -6.2%
ATL +1.5 -132 -142 +1.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | August 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob deGrom Home: Anthony Kay
ERA: 3.77 ERA: 3.96
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 11.16 K/9: 7.35
BB/9: 2.27 BB/9: 3.18
FIP: 3.12 FIP: 4.16
IP: 126.7 IP: 127.3
xERA: 3.59 xERA: 4.85
xwOBA: 0.294 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Jacob deGrom)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX CWS Lg Avg
Record 66-66 68-63
R/Game 4.03 4.73 4.47
RA/Game 4.31 4.47 4.47
OPS 0.711 0.725 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.18 4.14 4.16
FIP 3.95 4.07 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.67 8.50 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.526 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.41 4.53 4.23
BP FIP 4.24 4.55 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.39
BP K/9 8.20 8.12
BP Quality* 50.7 54.5 46.2
BP IP 424.7 288.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Schweitzer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9889 (Temp: 0.9995 | Wind: 0.9893)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.3 - CWS 4.5
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.3 - CWS 4.5
Win Probability: TEX 48.2% - CWS 51.8%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +108 / CWS -108
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.5: 59.1%
Under 7.5: 40.9%
TEX -1.5: 32.4%
CWS +1.5: 67.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.3 - CWS 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.3 - CWS 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TEX 52.2% - CWS 47.8% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -109 / CWS +109
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -106 +108 -3.3%
CWS ML -101 -108 +1.6%
TEX -1.5 +153 +208 -7.1%
CWS +1.5 -186 -208 +2.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +6.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -11.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | August 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chris Bassitt Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL STL Lg Avg
Record 63-68 66-66
R/Game 4.45 4.43 4.47
RA/Game 4.72 4.45 4.47
OPS 0.713 0.699 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.19 4.14 4.16
FIP 3.99 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.34 1.30
K/9 8.01 7.77 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.498 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.28 4.34 4.23
BP FIP 3.80 4.15 4.07
BP WHIP 1.31 1.35
BP K/9 8.67 7.83
BP Quality* 44.8 47.3 46.2
BP IP 433.0 491.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0084 (Temp: 1.0189 | Wind: 0.9897)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 4.4 - STL 4.8
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.4 - STL 4.8
Win Probability: BAL 45.9% - STL 54.1%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +118 / STL -118
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.0: 53.1%
Under 8.0: 37.9%
BAL +1.5: 61.7%
STL -1.5: 38.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 2.4 - STL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.5 - STL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: BAL 44.1% - STL 55.9% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +127 / STL -127
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML +116 +118 -0.4%
STL ML -124 -118 -1.2%
BAL +1.5 -193 -161 -4.2%
STL -1.5 +158 +161 -0.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +0.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gavin Williams Home: Walbert Ureña
ERA: 3.72 ERA: 2.8
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 11.7 K/9: 8.71
BB/9: 2.79 BB/9: 4.71
FIP: 3.53 FIP: 3.54
IP: 154.7 IP: 112.7
xERA: 3.89 xERA: 3.32
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.283
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE LAA Lg Avg
Record 66-66 52-80
R/Game 4.02 4.08 4.47
RA/Game 4.08 4.63 4.47
OPS 0.684 0.684 0.719
wOBA 0.298 0.297 0.310
ERA 3.73 4.26 4.16
FIP 3.76 4.02 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.47 9.14 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.494 0.443 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.67 4.44 4.23
BP FIP 3.59 4.22 4.07
BP WHIP 1.30 1.37
BP K/9 10.00 9.12
BP Quality* 44.5 50.7 46.2
BP IP 443.7 332.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Luke Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sammy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9960 (Temp: 1.0146 | Wind: 0.9817)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 3.6 - LAA 3.9
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.6 - LAA 3.9
Win Probability: CLE 47.2% - LAA 52.8%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +112 / LAA -112
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.5: 46.7%
Under 7.5: 53.3%
CLE -1.5: 29.6%
LAA +1.5: 70.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 1.8 - LAA 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.8 - LAA 2.0
F5 Win Prob: CLE 44.5% - LAA 55.5% (Tie: 19.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +125 / LAA -125
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -140 +112 -11.1%
LAA ML +131 -112 +9.5%
CLE -1.5 +123 +237 -15.2%
LAA +1.5 -149 -237 +10.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -5.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +0.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -149 | Edge: 10.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01113
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Clay Holmes Home: Brandon Pfaadt
ERA: 2.49 ERA: 3.39
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 6.55 K/9: 6.32
BB/9: 3.01 BB/9: 2.2
FIP: 3.41 FIP: 3.88
IP: 68.7 IP: 98.3
xERA: 4.05 xERA: 3.57
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Clay Holmes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC ARI Lg Avg
Record 76-56 69-63
R/Game 5.23 4.53 4.47
RA/Game 4.31 4.52 4.47
OPS 0.763 0.716 0.719
wOBA 0.329 0.307 0.310
ERA 4.09 4.21 4.16
FIP 4.54 4.29 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.30 1.30
K/9 7.72 6.88 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.588 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.35 3.66 4.23
BP FIP 4.48 3.69 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.22
BP K/9 8.41 7.49
BP Quality* 51.5 46.3 46.2
BP IP 511.3 416.0
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drey Jameson (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 4.8 - ARI 4.4
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.8 - ARI 4.4
Win Probability: CHC 53.7% - ARI 46.3%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -116 / ARI +116
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 52.9%
Under 8.5: 47.1%
CHC -1.5: 37.8%
ARI +1.5: 62.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.5 - ARI 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.6 - ARI 2.1
F5 Win Prob: CHC 57.4% - ARI 42.6% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -135 / ARI +135
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -108 -116 +1.7%
ARI ML +101 +116 -3.4%
CHC -1.5 +144 +164 -3.2%
ARI +1.5 -175 -164 -1.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | August 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Paul Skenes Home: Michael King
ERA: 3.95 ERA: 3.38
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 11.07 K/9: 7.73
BB/9: 2.65 BB/9: 3.5
FIP: 2.83 FIP: 4.12
IP: 139.0 IP: 149.0
xERA: 3.17 xERA: 4.35
xwOBA: 0.277 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT SD Lg Avg
Record 64-69 71-61
R/Game 4.93 4.29 4.47
RA/Game 4.74 4.17 4.47
OPS 0.736 0.706 0.719
wOBA 0.319 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.26 3.99 4.16
FIP 3.73 4.04 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.36 8.21 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.518 0.512 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.67 2.74 4.23
BP FIP 3.60 2.94 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.14
BP K/9 9.73 10.97
BP Quality* 47.9 39.9 46.2
BP IP 434.0 275.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kirby Yates (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Kyle Hart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0104 (Temp: 1.0091 | Wind: 1.0013)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 4.3 - SD 3.8
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.3 - SD 3.8
Win Probability: PIT 56.0% - SD 44.0%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -127 / SD +127
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.0: 52.4%
Under 7.0: 37.6%
PIT +1.5: 72.6%
SD -1.5: 27.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.5 - SD 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.5 - SD 1.8
F5 Win Prob: PIT 63.2% - SD 36.8% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -172 / SD +172
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +111 -127 +8.6%
SD ML -119 +127 -10.3%
PIT +1.5 -208 -265 +5.1%
SD -1.5 +170 +265 -9.6%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +0.0%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -14.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Athletics
Regular Season | August 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Taj Bradley Home: Gage Jump
ERA: 3.9 ERA: 4.83
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.51
K/9: 10.11 K/9: 9.66
BB/9: 3.97 BB/9: 4.39
FIP: 3.93 FIP: 3.84
IP: 140.7 IP: 82.0
xERA: 3.94 xERA: 4.47
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN ATH Lg Avg
Record 64-68 51-81
R/Game 4.61 4.35 4.47
RA/Game 5.00 5.79 4.47
OPS 0.726 0.719 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.67 5.50 4.16
FIP 4.18 4.79 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.51 1.30
K/9 8.41 8.53 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.463 0.372 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.59 6.02 4.23
BP FIP 3.97 4.69 4.07
BP WHIP 1.44 1.62
BP K/9 8.64 9.19
BP Quality* 50.7 61.6 46.2
BP IP 569.0 465.3
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kade Morris (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9817 (Temp: 0.9959 | Wind: 0.9858)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 5.3 - ATH 4.5
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.3 - ATH 4.5
Win Probability: MIN 56.8% - ATH 43.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -132 / ATH +132
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 10.0: 41.3%
Under 10.0: 50.3%
MIN -1.5: 42.0%
ATH +1.5: 58.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.7 - ATH 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.7 - ATH 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIN 55.5% - ATH 44.5% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -125 / ATH +125
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML -147 -132 -2.7%
ATH ML +137 +132 +1.0%
MIN -1.5 +104 +138 -7.0%
ATH +1.5 -126 -138 +2.2%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -11.1%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -2.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | August 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Aaron Nola Home: George Kirby
ERA: 5.12 ERA: 4.18
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 9.59 K/9: 7.52
BB/9: 3.02 BB/9: 2.12
FIP: 4.92 FIP: 3.71
IP: 137.0 IP: 140.0
xERA: 4.17 xERA: 4.0
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI SEA Lg Avg
Record 73-59 63-69
R/Game 4.55 3.95 4.47
RA/Game 4.40 4.36 4.47
OPS 0.716 0.688 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.15 4.11 4.16
FIP 3.67 3.77 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.24 1.30
K/9 10.00 8.66 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.515 0.455 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.16 4.30 4.23
BP FIP 3.53 4.08 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.36
BP K/9 10.10 9.00
BP Quality* 47.4 50.9 46.2
BP IP 452.7 404.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex McFarlane (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carlos Vargas (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9939 (Temp: 1.0062 | Wind: 0.9878)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.2 - SEA 4.1
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.2 - SEA 4.1
Win Probability: PHI 50.6% - SEA 49.4%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -103 / SEA +103
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.5: 54.6%
Under 7.5: 45.4%
PHI -1.5: 34.1%
SEA +1.5: 65.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.2 - SEA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.2 - SEA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: PHI 47.7% - SEA 52.3% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +110 / SEA -110
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -104 -103 -0.3%
SEA ML -104 +103 -1.6%
PHI -1.5 +155 +194 -5.1%
SEA +1.5 -189 -194 +0.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | August 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brady Singer Home: Adrian Houser
ERA: 4.72 ERA: 4.08
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 7.31 K/9: 6.08
BB/9: 2.94 BB/9: 2.83
FIP: 4.92 FIP: 4.5
IP: 131.7 IP: 108.0
xERA: 5.04 xERA: 4.98
xwOBA: 0.343 xwOBA: 0.341
Pitcher Edge: SF (Adrian Houser)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN SF Lg Avg
Record 62-70 53-78
R/Game 4.07 4.03 4.47
RA/Game 4.82 4.60 4.47
OPS 0.696 0.710 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.52 4.32 4.16
FIP 4.49 4.00 4.04
WHIP 1.41 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.15 7.70 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.423 0.440 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 4.73 4.23
BP FIP 4.61 4.28 4.07
BP WHIP 1.44 1.50
BP K/9 8.68 7.16
BP Quality* 52.3 55.1 46.2
BP IP 489.7 337.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), strong crosswind (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9717 (Temp: 0.9912 | Wind: 0.9803)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 4.2 - SF 4.4
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.2 - SF 4.4
Win Probability: CIN 47.4% - SF 52.6%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +111 / SF -111
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.0: 48.2%
Under 8.0: 42.3%
CIN -1.5: 31.6%
SF +1.5: 68.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.3 - SF 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.3 - SF 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CIN 46.7% - SF 53.3% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +114 / SF -114
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML -103 +111 -3.3%
SF ML -104 -111 +1.6%
CIN -1.5 +155 +216 -7.6%
SF +1.5 -189 -216 +3.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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