2026-08-26
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-26
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | August 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Freddy Peralta Home: Troy Melton
ERA: 5.33 ERA: 1.7
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 8.6 K/9: 7.6
BB/9: 3.6 BB/9: 2.8
FIP: 4.51 FIP: 3.79
IP: 135.0 IP: 90.0
xERA: 4.11 xERA: 3.22
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.279
Pitcher Edge: DET (Troy Melton)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB DET Lg Avg
Record 78-54 62-70
R/Game 4.48 4.48 4.47
RA/Game 4.15 3.93 4.47
OPS 0.732 0.720 0.718
wOBA 0.314 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.81 3.60 4.16
FIP 3.96 3.81 4.04
WHIP 1.15 1.22 1.30
K/9 8.26 8.27 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.535 0.560 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.72 4.26 4.22
BP FIP 4.16 4.37 4.07
BP WHIP 1.18 1.35
BP K/9 8.55 8.29
BP Quality* 46.4 49.4 46.2
BP IP 416.0 353.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ian Seymour (88 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ryan Vilade, Victor Mesa Jr., Jake Fraley
Ryan Vilade Outfielder OPS: 0.806 (197 AB)
Victor Mesa Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.735 (159 AB)
Jake Fraley Outfielder OPS: 0.690 (82 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.8% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Eduardo Valencia, Riley Greene, Ben Malgeri
Eduardo Valencia Designated Hitter OPS: 1.018 (70 AB)
Riley Greene Outfielder OPS: 0.816 (422 AB)
Ben Malgeri Outfielder OPS: 0.772 (66 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9831 (Temp: 1.0143 | Wind: 0.9693)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 3.5 - DET 4.2
Simulated Avg: TB 3.5 - DET 4.2
Win Probability: TB 42.3% - DET 57.7%
Fair Moneyline: TB +137 / DET -137
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.5: 48.7%
Under 7.5: 51.3%
TB +1.5: 60.4%
DET -1.5: 39.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 1.7 - DET 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 1.7 - DET 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TB 36.2% - DET 63.7% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +176 / DET -176
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +108 +137 -5.8%
DET ML -116 -137 +4.0%
TB +1.5 -207 -152 -7.0%
DET -1.5 +169 +152 +2.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -3.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -1.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Boyd Home: Eduardo Rodriguez
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 2.61
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 7.02 K/9: 6.39
BB/9: 2.77 BB/9: 2.85
FIP: 4.46 FIP: 3.8
IP: 91.0 IP: 155.0
xERA: 5.01 xERA: 4.59
xwOBA: 0.342 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Eduardo Rodriguez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC ARI Lg Avg
Record 76-57 70-63
R/Game 5.23 4.53 4.47
RA/Game 4.32 4.51 4.47
OPS 0.762 0.715 0.718
wOBA 0.328 0.307 0.310
ERA 4.10 4.21 4.16
FIP 4.54 4.29 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.29 1.30
K/9 7.71 6.87 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.587 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.42 3.64 4.22
BP FIP 4.51 3.68 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.21
BP K/9 8.40 7.49
BP Quality* 50.4 43.1 46.2
BP IP 513.0 418.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 4.8 - ARI 5.1
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.8 - ARI 5.1
Win Probability: CHC 46.3% - ARI 53.7%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +116 / ARI -116
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.5: 58.7%
Under 8.5: 41.3%
CHC -1.5: 32.2%
ARI +1.5: 67.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 2.6 - ARI 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.6 - ARI 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CHC 47.2% - ARI 52.8% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +112 / ARI -112
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -101 +116 -3.9%
ARI ML -106 -116 +2.2%
CHC -1.5 +156 +211 -6.9%
ARI +1.5 -190 -211 +2.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +6.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -11.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | August 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Lodolo Home: Landen Roupp
ERA: 5.04 ERA: 4.34
WHIP: 1.52 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 7.08 K/9: 8.69
BB/9: 3.72 BB/9: 4.28
FIP: 5.02 FIP: 3.56
IP: 75.0 IP: 134.7
xERA: 6.49 xERA: 3.75
xwOBA: 0.382 xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: SF (Landen Roupp)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN SF Lg Avg
Record 62-71 54-78
R/Game 4.05 4.02 4.47
RA/Game 4.80 4.58 4.47
OPS 0.694 0.711 0.718
wOBA 0.301 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.52 4.30 4.16
FIP 4.49 4.00 4.04
WHIP 1.41 1.35 1.30
K/9 8.14 7.69 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.422 0.441 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 4.66 4.22
BP FIP 4.60 4.31 4.07
BP WHIP 1.44 1.48
BP K/9 8.65 7.06
BP Quality* 52.2 56.3 46.2
BP IP 492.0 349.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Molina (52 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9917 (Temp: 1.0062 | Wind: 0.9857)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 3.9 - SF 4.8
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.9 - SF 4.8
Win Probability: CIN 40.5% - SF 59.6%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +147 / SF -147
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.5: 58.8%
Under 7.5: 41.2%
CIN -1.5: 25.6%
SF +1.5: 74.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 1.9 - SF 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 1.9 - SF 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CIN 34.3% - SF 65.7% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +191 / SF -191
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML -103 +147 -10.3%
SF ML -104 -147 +8.6%
CIN -1.5 +153 +291 -13.9%
SF +1.5 -187 -291 +9.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +6.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -11.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Joey Cantillo Home: Grayson Rodriguez
ERA: 3.73 ERA: 6.41
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 1.53
K/9: 9.94 K/9: 8.32
BB/9: 4.35 BB/9: 4.09
FIP: 3.84 FIP: 4.58
IP: 130.3 IP: 66.0
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 5.78
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.364
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Joey Cantillo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE LAA Lg Avg
Record 67-66 52-81
R/Game 4.05 4.10 4.47
RA/Game 4.09 4.65 4.47
OPS 0.685 0.686 0.718
wOBA 0.298 0.297 0.310
ERA 3.75 4.28 4.16
FIP 3.77 4.01 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.51 9.16 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.496 0.442 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.62 4.46 4.22
BP FIP 3.56 4.17 4.07
BP WHIP 1.28 1.38
BP K/9 10.05 9.21
BP Quality* 48.5 55.1 46.2
BP IP 452.3 339.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Logan Allen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Holderman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blake Weiman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Luke Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sammy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0186 (Temp: 1.0373 | Wind: 0.9819)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 5.2 - LAA 4.2
Simulated Avg: CLE 5.2 - LAA 4.2
Win Probability: CLE 58.9% - LAA 41.1%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -143 / LAA +143
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.5: 54.6%
Under 8.5: 45.4%
CLE -1.5: 43.5%
LAA +1.5: 56.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 3.0 - LAA 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 3.0 - LAA 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CLE 63.0% - LAA 37.0% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -171 / LAA +171
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML -135 -143 +1.5%
LAA ML +126 +143 -3.1%
CLE -1.5 +119 +130 -2.2%
LAA +1.5 -143 -130 -2.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -7.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | August 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bubba Chandler Home: Randy Vásquez
ERA: 4.38 ERA: 4.19
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 8.19 K/9: 5.64
BB/9: 4.74 BB/9: 2.44
FIP: 4.0 FIP: 4.31
IP: 125.3 IP: 118.0
xERA: 4.08 xERA: 5.71
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.362
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Bubba Chandler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT SD Lg Avg
Record 65-69 71-62
R/Game 4.90 4.26 4.47
RA/Game 4.70 4.15 4.47
OPS 0.736 0.703 0.718
wOBA 0.319 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.23 3.97 4.16
FIP 3.72 4.03 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.35 8.22 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.519 0.511 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.65 2.76 4.22
BP FIP 3.60 2.98 4.07
BP WHIP 1.31 1.13
BP K/9 9.72 10.96
BP Quality* 46.2 40.1 46.2
BP IP 436.0 277.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Mason Miller (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0030 (Temp: 1.0228 | Wind: 0.9806)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.8 - SD 4.2
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.8 - SD 4.2
Win Probability: PIT 55.8% - SD 44.2%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -126 / SD +126
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.0: 51.1%
Under 8.0: 39.5%
PIT +1.5: 71.4%
SD -1.5: 28.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 3.0 - SD 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 3.0 - SD 2.3
F5 Win Prob: PIT 60.9% - SD 39.1% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -156 / SD +156
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML +120 -126 +10.3%
SD ML -129 +126 -12.1%
PIT +1.5 -182 -250 +6.9%
SD -1.5 +150 +250 -11.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -1.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -12.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +120 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01114
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | August 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jesús Luzardo Home: Bryan Woo
ERA: 3.23 ERA: 4.1
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 11.19 K/9: 8.91
BB/9: 2.71 BB/9: 1.89
FIP: 2.68 FIP: 3.16
IP: 156.0 IP: 138.3
xERA: 2.87 xERA: 3.56
xwOBA: 0.264 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI SEA Lg Avg
Record 73-60 64-69
R/Game 4.53 3.95 4.47
RA/Game 4.40 4.34 4.47
OPS 0.715 0.687 0.718
wOBA 0.307 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.14 4.08 4.16
FIP 3.67 3.76 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.99 8.68 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.513 0.458 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.18 4.29 4.22
BP FIP 3.54 4.08 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.36
BP K/9 10.06 9.01
BP Quality* 44.5 47.9 46.2
BP IP 454.7 405.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alex McFarlane (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9928 (Temp: 1.0029 | Wind: 0.9900)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 3.8 - SEA 3.0
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.8 - SEA 3.0
Win Probability: PHI 59.4% - SEA 40.6%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -146 / SEA +146
Avg Total Runs: 6.9
Over 7.0: 40.2%
Under 7.0: 49.2%
PHI -1.5: 40.1%
SEA +1.5: 59.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.0 - SEA 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.0 - SEA 1.4
F5 Win Prob: PHI 61.5% - SEA 38.5% (Tie: 20.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -160 / SEA +160
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -128 -146 +3.2%
SEA ML +119 +146 -5.1%
PHI -1.5 +135 +149 -2.4%
SEA +1.5 -163 -149 -2.1%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -12.2%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -3.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | August 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sonny Gray Home: Ryan Gusto
ERA: 2.79 ERA: 4.37
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 7.98 K/9: 7.96
BB/9: 2.34 BB/9: 2.34
FIP: 3.51 FIP: 3.91
IP: 138.7 IP: 57.7
xERA: 3.62 xERA: 4.28
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Sonny Gray)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS MIA Lg Avg
Record 73-59 67-66
R/Game 4.55 4.35 4.47
RA/Game 3.75 4.23 4.47
OPS 0.731 0.726 0.718
wOBA 0.314 0.314 0.310
ERA 3.48 3.91 4.16
FIP 3.55 3.84 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.65 8.41 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.587 0.512 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.05 4.50 4.22
BP FIP 3.31 3.86 4.07
BP WHIP 1.21 1.32
BP K/9 9.28 8.94
BP Quality* 42.0 56.5 46.2
BP IP 359.7 432.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Ralston (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 32%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0332 (Temp: 1.0141 | Wind: 1.0189)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 4.7 - MIA 3.6
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.7 - MIA 3.6
Win Probability: BOS 60.8% - MIA 39.2%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -155 / MIA +155
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.5: 54.6%
Under 7.5: 45.4%
BOS -1.5: 44.0%
MIA +1.5: 56.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.4 - MIA 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.4 - MIA 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BOS 59.1% - MIA 40.9% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -144 / MIA +144
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -129 -155 +4.5%
MIA ML +120 +155 -6.3%
BOS -1.5 +123 +127 -0.9%
MIA +1.5 -148 -127 -3.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Matt Waldron (stats from TOR, scheduled for WSH)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | August 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tanner Gordon Home: Matt Waldron
ERA: 5.75 ERA: 7.54
WHIP: 1.49 WHIP: 1.62
K/9: 7.51 K/9: 7.54
BB/9: 1.76 BB/9: 2.43
FIP: 4.73 FIP: 4.69
IP: 76.7 IP: 37.0
xERA: 4.71 xERA: 3.75
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL WSH Lg Avg
Record 51-81 62-72
R/Game 4.72 5.19 4.47
RA/Game 5.81 5.06 4.47
OPS 0.737 0.754 0.718
wOBA 0.317 0.323 0.310
ERA 5.55 4.66 4.16
FIP 4.72 4.56 4.04
WHIP 1.52 1.38 1.30
K/9 6.95 7.83 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.406 0.512 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.08 5.69 4.22
BP FIP 4.35 4.95 4.07
BP WHIP 1.52 1.58
BP K/9 7.32 8.74
BP Quality* 58.0 61.5 46.2
BP IP 333.0 439.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jaden Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mark Manfredi (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Max Kranick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brad Lord (44 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9994 (Temp: 1.0146 | Wind: 0.9851)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 5.7 - WSH 6.3
Simulated Avg: COL 5.7 - WSH 6.3
Win Probability: COL 44.9% - WSH 55.1%
Fair Moneyline: COL +123 / WSH -123
Avg Total Runs: 12.1
Over 9.0: 66.1%
Under 9.0: 27.0%
COL +1.5: 57.9%
WSH -1.5: 42.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 3.1 - WSH 3.4
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 3.1 - WSH 3.4
F5 Win Prob: COL 45.6% - WSH 54.4% (Tie: 13.4%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +119 / WSH -119
F5 Avg Total: 6.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +116 +123 -1.4%
WSH ML -124 -123 -0.3%
COL +1.5 -191 -138 -7.7%
WSH -1.5 +157 +138 +3.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +13.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -25.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Peter Lambert Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU NYY Lg Avg
Record 66-66 74-57
R/Game 4.58 4.47 4.47
RA/Game 4.90 3.73 4.47
OPS 0.730 0.718 0.718
wOBA 0.311 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.65 3.24 4.16
FIP 4.47 3.56 4.04
WHIP 1.37 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.84 9.02 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.583 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.30 2.79 4.22
BP FIP 4.35 3.72 4.07
BP WHIP 1.30 1.16
BP K/9 8.99 8.46
BP Quality* 50.2 39.8 46.2
BP IP 471.3 403.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0023 (Temp: 1.0029 | Wind: 0.9994)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.2 - NYY 4.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.2 - NYY 4.4
Win Probability: HOU 48.4% - NYY 51.6%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +107 / NYY -107
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 9.0: 38.6%
Under 9.0: 52.3%
HOU +1.5: 65.1%
NYY -1.5: 34.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.5 - NYY 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.5 - NYY 2.1
F5 Win Prob: HOU 55.9% - NYY 44.1% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -127 / NYY +127
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +111 +107 +1.0%
NYY ML -119 -107 -2.7%
HOU +1.5 -193 -186 -0.8%
NYY -1.5 +158 +186 -3.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -13.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -0.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | August 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Randy Dobnak Home: Spencer Miles
ERA: 1.58 ERA: 3.02
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 5.72 K/9: 8.18
BB/9: 3.94 BB/9: 2.24
FIP: 3.71 FIP: 2.84
IP: 45.7 IP: 80.3
xERA: 4.74 xERA: 3.01
xwOBA: 0.334 xwOBA: 0.27
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Spencer Miles)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC TOR Lg Avg
Record 59-74 64-69
R/Game 4.25 3.94 4.47
RA/Game 4.92 4.37 4.47
OPS 0.715 0.686 0.718
wOBA 0.307 0.296 0.310
ERA 4.71 3.97 4.16
FIP 4.51 3.88 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.47 8.81 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.433 0.453 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.05 3.87 4.22
BP FIP 5.48 4.05 4.07
BP WHIP 1.64 1.34
BP K/9 7.61 8.28
BP Quality* 67.4 49.4 46.2
BP IP 495.7 286.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Connor Thomas (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brendon Little (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9869 (Temp: 0.9963 | Wind: 0.9906)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 3.5 - TOR 4.3
Simulated Avg: KC 3.5 - TOR 4.3
Win Probability: KC 41.7% - TOR 58.3%
Fair Moneyline: KC +140 / TOR -140
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.5: 40.1%
Under 8.5: 60.0%
KC +1.5: 59.7%
TOR -1.5: 40.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 1.6 - TOR 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.6 - TOR 1.9
F5 Win Prob: KC 45.4% - TOR 54.6% (Tie: 21.0%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +121 / TOR -121
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +136 +140 -0.7%
TOR ML -146 -140 -1.0%
KC +1.5 -163 -148 -2.3%
TOR -1.5 +135 +148 -2.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -12.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +7.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.6%
Fair ML: -150 | Kelly: 3.97%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01115
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets
Regular Season | August 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Dustin May Home: Robert Stock
ERA: 4.57 ERA: 5.4
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.68
K/9: 8.56 K/9: 10.26
BB/9: 3.05 BB/9: 5.94
FIP: 3.16 FIP: 3.58
IP: 124.0 IP: 16.7
xERA: 4.2 xERA: 4.65
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Dustin May)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL NYM Lg Avg
Record 81-51 60-72
R/Game 4.94 4.16 4.47
RA/Game 3.73 4.45 4.47
OPS 0.733 0.699 0.718
wOBA 0.315 0.302 0.310
ERA 3.41 4.05 4.16
FIP 3.45 3.88 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.30 1.30
K/9 9.73 9.13 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.626 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.46 4.09 4.22
BP FIP 3.52 4.19 4.07
BP WHIP 1.26 1.35
BP K/9 8.90 9.30
BP Quality* 41.9 46.2 46.2
BP IP 448.0 244.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9930 (Temp: 1.0008 | Wind: 0.9922)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.0 - NYM 3.8
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.9 - NYM 3.8
Win Probability: MIL 61.4% - NYM 38.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -159 / NYM +159
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 48.8%
Under 8.5: 51.2%
MIL -1.5: 45.1%
NYM +1.5: 54.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.9 - NYM 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.9 - NYM 2.1
F5 Win Prob: MIL 62.6% - NYM 37.4% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -168 / NYM +168
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -149 -159 +1.5%
NYM ML +139 +159 -3.2%
MIL -1.5 +107 +122 -3.2%
NYM +1.5 -129 -122 -1.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Roki Sasaki Home: AJ Smith-Shawver
ERA: 4.42 ERA: 6.23
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.62
K/9: 8.84 K/9: 7.27
BB/9: 3.57 BB/9: 5.19
FIP: 4.68 FIP: 3.21
IP: 116.0 IP: 8.7
xERA: 4.22 xERA: 5.75
xwOBA: 0.317 xwOBA: 0.363
Pitcher Edge: ATL (AJ Smith-Shawver)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ATL Lg Avg
Record 80-52 77-55
R/Game 4.97 4.68 4.47
RA/Game 3.83 3.84 4.47
OPS 0.761 0.722 0.718
wOBA 0.325 0.310 0.310
ERA 3.67 3.60 4.16
FIP 3.74 3.96 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.25 1.30
K/9 9.25 8.60 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.617 0.590 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.10 3.30 4.22
BP FIP 3.87 3.51 4.07
BP WHIP 1.29 1.18
BP K/9 9.80 9.30
BP Quality* 45.7 42.0 46.2
BP IP 415.0 395.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0165 (Temp: 1.0227 | Wind: 0.9940)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.8 - ATL 5.1
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.9 - ATL 5.1
Win Probability: LAD 47.2% - ATL 52.8%
Fair Moneyline: LAD +112 / ATL -112
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 8.5: 59.7%
Under 8.5: 40.3%
LAD -1.5: 32.7%
ATL +1.5: 67.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.8 - ATL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.8 - ATL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: LAD 48.6% - ATL 51.4% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +106 / ATL -106
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -124 +112 -8.1%
ATL ML +116 -112 +6.5%
LAD -1.5 +124 +206 -11.9%
ATL +1.5 -149 -206 +7.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +7.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -12.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Atlanta Braves +1.5 (Run Line) [-149]
Model: 67.3% | Market: 59.8% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -206 | Kelly: 4.64%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01116
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | August 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: MacKenzie Gore Home: Sean Burke
ERA: 4.26 ERA: 3.27
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 9.95 K/9: 9.74
BB/9: 3.21 BB/9: 2.59
FIP: 3.57 FIP: 3.31
IP: 145.7 IP: 146.0
xERA: 3.8 xERA: 3.56
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX CWS Lg Avg
Record 66-67 69-63
R/Game 4.05 4.78 4.47
RA/Game 4.36 4.49 4.47
OPS 0.713 0.727 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.22 4.16 4.16
FIP 3.95 4.09 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.69 8.49 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.528 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.42 4.58 4.22
BP FIP 4.24 4.59 4.07
BP WHIP 1.36 1.41
BP K/9 8.26 8.14
BP Quality* 53.8 53.5 46.2
BP IP 428.0 290.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Cole Winn (45 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Hagen Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9989 (Temp: 1.0068 | Wind: 0.9922)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.8 - CWS 5.0
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.8 - CWS 5.0
Win Probability: TEX 38.4% - CWS 61.7%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +161 / CWS -161
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 49.5%
Under 8.0: 41.1%
TEX +1.5: 55.1%
CWS -1.5: 44.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 1.8 - CWS 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.8 - CWS 2.5
F5 Win Prob: TEX 38.2% - CWS 61.8% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +162 / CWS -162
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +110 +161 -9.3%
CWS ML -118 -161 +7.5%
TEX +1.5 -211 -123 -12.7%
CWS -1.5 +172 +123 +8.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Chicago White Sox -1.5 (Run Line) [+172]
Model: 44.9% | Market: 36.8% | Edge: 8.1%
Fair ML: +123 | Kelly: 3.20%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01117
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | August 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Bradish Home: Michael McGreevy
ERA: 3.7 ERA: 3.54
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 8.37 K/9: 6.23
BB/9: 3.89 BB/9: 2.36
FIP: 3.94 FIP: 4.21
IP: 138.7 IP: 137.3
xERA: 4.25 xERA: 5.31
xwOBA: 0.318 xwOBA: 0.351
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL STL Lg Avg
Record 64-68 66-67
R/Game 4.52 4.41 4.47
RA/Game 4.69 4.51 4.47
OPS 0.716 0.697 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.17 4.21 4.16
FIP 3.98 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.34 1.30
K/9 8.03 7.81 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.483 0.489 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.26 4.39 4.22
BP FIP 3.77 4.12 4.07
BP WHIP 1.31 1.36
BP K/9 8.72 7.86
BP Quality* 46.1 48.8 46.2
BP IP 435.3 496.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Peter Strzelecki (31 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0458 (Temp: 1.0243 | Wind: 1.0210)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 4.9 - STL 4.5
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.8 - STL 4.5
Win Probability: BAL 52.6% - STL 47.4%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -111 / STL +111
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.5: 54.9%
Under 8.5: 45.1%
BAL -1.5: 37.4%
STL +1.5: 62.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 2.7 - STL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.7 - STL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: BAL 54.6% - STL 45.4% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -121 / STL +121
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML -106 -111 +1.1%
STL ML -101 +111 -2.8%
BAL -1.5 +149 +168 -2.8%
STL +1.5 -181 -168 -1.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -7.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Athletics
Regular Season | August 26, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Connor Prielipp Home: J.T. Ginn
ERA: 5.57 ERA: 3.6
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 9.7 K/9: 8.03
BB/9: 3.65 BB/9: 3.74
FIP: 3.96 FIP: 3.94
IP: 93.7 IP: 132.3
xERA: 4.28 xERA: 3.91
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN ATH Lg Avg
Record 64-69 52-81
R/Game 4.59 4.35 4.47
RA/Game 4.99 5.76 4.47
OPS 0.724 0.719 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.67 5.47 4.16
FIP 4.16 4.77 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.51 1.30
K/9 8.46 8.56 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.462 0.374 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 5.98 4.22
BP FIP 3.96 4.67 4.07
BP WHIP 1.44 1.62
BP K/9 8.65 9.19
BP Quality* 47.7 59.9 46.2
BP IP 570.3 468.0
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9911 (Temp: 1.0047 | Wind: 0.9865)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 5.0 - ATH 4.8
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.0 - ATH 4.8
Win Probability: MIN 51.3% - ATH 48.7%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -105 / ATH +105
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 10.5: 40.9%
Under 10.5: 59.1%
MIN -1.5: 36.3%
ATH +1.5: 63.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.4 - ATH 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.4 - ATH 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIN 45.4% - ATH 54.6% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +120 / ATH -120
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML -135 -105 -6.2%
ATH ML +126 +105 +4.5%
MIN -1.5 +110 +176 -11.4%
ATH +1.5 -132 -176 +6.8%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -11.5%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +6.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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