2026-08-27
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-27
Games: 7 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | August 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gabriel Hughes Home: Jake Irvin
ERA: 6.54 ERA: 5.82
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 7.38 K/9: 8.84
BB/9: 3.16 BB/9: 3.84
FIP: 3.73 FIP: 4.77
IP: 42.7 IP: 77.3
xERA: 3.46 xERA: 5.38
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.353
Pitcher Edge: COL (Gabriel Hughes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL WSH Lg Avg
Record 52-81 62-73
R/Game 4.78 5.16 4.47
RA/Game 5.77 5.12 4.47
OPS 0.741 0.753 0.719
wOBA 0.319 0.323 0.310
ERA 5.52 4.72 4.16
FIP 4.71 4.60 4.04
WHIP 1.52 1.39 1.30
K/9 6.95 7.82 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.415 0.504 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.05 5.86 4.22
BP FIP 4.33 5.06 4.07
BP WHIP 1.51 1.60
BP K/9 7.33 8.72
BP Quality* 51.7 65.7 46.2
BP IP 335.0 446.7
Bullpen Edge: COL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
WSH: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Luis Perales (53 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Will Dion (56 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jake Bird (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Hunter Goodman, Mickey Moniak, Kyle Karros
Hunter Goodman Catcher OPS: 0.869 (424 AB)
Mickey Moniak Outfielder OPS: 0.811 (328 AB)
Kyle Karros Third Base OPS: 0.779 (346 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.7% of full strength
WSH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: James Wood, Joey Wiemer, José Tena, Abimelec Ortiz
James Wood Outfielder OPS: 0.928 (437 AB)
Joey Wiemer Outfielder OPS: 0.912 (70 AB)
José Tena Designated Hitter OPS: 0.702 (236 AB)
Abimelec Ortiz First Base OPS: 0.694 (72 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9950 (Temp: 1.0253 | Wind: 0.9704)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 5.5 - WSH 4.9
Simulated Avg: COL 5.4 - WSH 4.9
Win Probability: COL 54.8% - WSH 45.2%
Fair Moneyline: COL -121 / WSH +121
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.5: 53.6%
Under 9.5: 46.4%
COL +1.5: 69.0%
WSH -1.5: 31.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 2.9 - WSH 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 3.0 - WSH 2.6
F5 Win Prob: COL 55.2% - WSH 44.8% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: COL -123 / WSH +123
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +131 -121 +11.5%
WSH ML -141 +121 -13.3%
COL +1.5 -171 -222 +5.9%
WSH -1.5 +141 +222 -10.4%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +1.3%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -6.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Colorado Rockies (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +131 | Edge: 11.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01118
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | August 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trevor Rogers Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL STL Lg Avg
Record 65-68 66-68
R/Game 4.54 4.43 4.47
RA/Game 4.71 4.54 4.47
OPS 0.718 0.698 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.19 4.24 4.16
FIP 3.98 3.95 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.34 1.30
K/9 8.02 7.80 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.489 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.21 4.37 4.22
BP FIP 3.77 4.11 4.07
BP WHIP 1.31 1.36
BP K/9 8.69 7.87
BP Quality* 44.5 47.2 46.2
BP IP 440.0 500.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0506 (Temp: 1.0196 | Wind: 1.0303)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.7 - STL 4.4
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.7 - STL 4.4
Win Probability: BAL 52.3% - STL 47.6%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -110 / STL +110
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.0: 51.8%
Under 8.0: 39.1%
BAL -1.5: 36.7%
STL +1.5: 63.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.6 - STL 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.6 - STL 2.4
F5 Win Prob: BAL 53.4% - STL 46.6% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -115 / STL +115
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML -119 -110 -2.0%
STL ML +111 +110 +0.3%
BAL -1.5 +135 +173 -5.9%
STL +1.5 -163 -173 +1.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Hayden Wesneski Home: Gerrit Cole
ERA: 4.23 ERA: 3.11
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 7.16 K/9: 9.71
BB/9: 3.25 BB/9: 1.94
FIP: 3.53 FIP: 3.27
IP: 27.7 IP: 92.7
xERA: 3.91 xERA: 3.29
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.282
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU NYY Lg Avg
Record 66-67 75-57
R/Game 4.57 4.51 4.47
RA/Game 4.93 3.72 4.47
OPS 0.728 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.68 3.23 4.16
FIP 4.48 3.56 4.04
WHIP 1.37 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.85 9.03 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.465 0.587 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.39 2.74 4.22
BP FIP 4.37 3.70 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.15
BP K/9 9.03 8.50
BP Quality* 50.8 38.0 46.2
BP IP 473.3 410.0
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Bennett Sousa (B2B, 28 pitches)
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 37%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9922 (Temp: 1.0019 | Wind: 0.9903)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 3.5 - NYY 5.0
Simulated Avg: HOU 3.5 - NYY 5.0
Win Probability: HOU 35.7% - NYY 64.3%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +180 / NYY -180
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 47.0%
Under 8.0: 43.5%
HOU +1.5: 52.2%
NYY -1.5: 47.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 1.9 - NYY 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 1.9 - NYY 2.7
F5 Win Prob: HOU 36.5% - NYY 63.5% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +174 / NYY -174
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +143 +180 -5.5%
NYY ML -154 -180 +3.7%
HOU +1.5 -155 -109 -8.6%
NYY -1.5 +128 +109 +3.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | August 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Noah Cameron Home: Spencer Arrighetti
ERA: 4.02 ERA: 4.73
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 8.04 K/9: 8.97
BB/9: 2.89 BB/9: 5.12
FIP: 3.55 FIP: 4.67
IP: 143.3 IP: 91.3
xERA: 4.11 xERA: 5.11
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.345
Pitcher Edge: KC (Noah Cameron)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC TOR Lg Avg
Record 59-75 65-69
R/Game 4.22 3.93 4.47
RA/Game 4.90 4.34 4.47
OPS 0.713 0.685 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.70 3.94 4.16
FIP 4.51 3.87 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.46 8.82 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.431 0.455 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.02 3.79 4.22
BP FIP 5.47 4.01 4.07
BP WHIP 1.64 1.33
BP K/9 7.58 8.32
BP Quality* 61.2 51.9 46.2
BP IP 497.7 292.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TOR: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Chad Dallas (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brendon Little (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0083 (Temp: 0.9970 | Wind: 1.0113)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.8 - TOR 4.4
Simulated Avg: KC 4.8 - TOR 4.4
Win Probability: KC 53.2% - TOR 46.8%
Fair Moneyline: KC -114 / TOR +114
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.0: 53.4%
Under 8.0: 37.7%
KC -1.5: 37.6%
TOR +1.5: 62.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.7 - TOR 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.7 - TOR 2.1
F5 Win Prob: KC 60.4% - TOR 39.6% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -152 / TOR +152
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML -105 -114 +2.0%
TOR ML -102 +114 -3.7%
KC -1.5 +144 +166 -3.4%
TOR +1.5 -175 -166 -1.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +1.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets
Regular Season | August 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob Misiorowski Home: Sean Manaea
ERA: 1.68 ERA: 4.31
WHIP: 0.76 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 13.41 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 2.05 BB/9: 3.0
FIP: 1.97 FIP: 4.21
IP: 145.0 IP: 117.0
xERA: 1.98 xERA: 4.81
xwOBA: 0.219 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL NYM Lg Avg
Record 82-51 60-73
R/Game 4.96 4.14 4.47
RA/Game 3.71 4.48 4.47
OPS 0.733 0.698 0.719
wOBA 0.316 0.301 0.310
ERA 3.39 4.08 4.16
FIP 3.44 3.89 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.30 1.30
K/9 9.71 9.10 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.630 0.463 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.43 4.05 4.22
BP FIP 3.51 4.18 4.07
BP WHIP 1.26 1.35
BP K/9 8.87 9.25
BP Quality* 41.8 50.6 46.2
BP IP 451.3 249.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Robert Gasser (82 pitches yesterday)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Jefry Yan (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Chayce McDermott (48 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 35%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9867 (Temp: 1.0021 | Wind: 0.9846)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 5.0 - NYM 2.7
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.0 - NYM 2.7
Win Probability: MIL 73.5% - NYM 26.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -277 / NYM +277
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.0: 48.8%
Under 7.0: 41.1%
MIL -1.5: 56.9%
NYM +1.5: 43.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.8 - NYM 1.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.8 - NYM 1.1
F5 Win Prob: MIL 80.5% - NYM 19.5% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -413 / NYM +413
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -187 -277 +8.3%
NYM ML +174 +277 -10.0%
MIL -1.5 -105 -132 +5.7%
NYM +1.5 -114 +132 -10.2%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -3.6%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -11.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Home: Chris Sale
ERA: 2.61 ERA: 2.2
WHIP: 0.9 WHIP: 1.03
K/9: 8.6 K/9: 11.07
BB/9: 2.08 BB/9: 1.87
FIP: 3.17 FIP: 2.03
IP: 151.7 IP: 135.0
xERA: 3.01 xERA: 3.05
xwOBA: 0.27 xwOBA: 0.272
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD ATL Lg Avg
Record 80-53 78-55
R/Game 4.97 4.69 4.47
RA/Game 3.85 3.85 4.47
OPS 0.762 0.725 0.719
wOBA 0.325 0.311 0.310
ERA 3.69 3.61 4.16
FIP 3.76 3.97 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.25 1.30
K/9 9.23 8.58 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.615 0.590 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.09 3.16 4.22
BP FIP 3.87 3.31 4.07
BP WHIP 1.30 1.17
BP K/9 9.79 9.37
BP Quality* 48.8 43.5 46.2
BP IP 418.3 347.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Eric Lauer (51 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Evan Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0079 (Temp: 1.0097 | Wind: 0.9981)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 3.7 - ATL 4.2
Simulated Avg: LAD 3.7 - ATL 4.2
Win Probability: LAD 43.6% - ATL 56.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAD +129 / ATL -129
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 6.5: 60.9%
Under 6.5: 39.1%
LAD +1.5: 61.5%
ATL -1.5: 38.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 1.6 - ATL 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 1.6 - ATL 1.9
F5 Win Prob: LAD 43.8% - ATL 56.2% (Tie: 20.3%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +128 / ATL -128
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML +111 +129 -3.8%
ATL ML -119 -129 +2.1%
LAD +1.5 -217 -160 -6.9%
ATL -1.5 +177 +160 +2.4%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +8.5%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -13.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 6.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.5%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.48%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01119
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | August 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jose Cabrera Home: Landen Roupp
ERA: 5.6 ERA: 4.34
WHIP: 1.53 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 6.11 K/9: 8.69
BB/9: 3.57 BB/9: 4.28
FIP: 5.13 FIP: 3.56
IP: 17.7 IP: 134.7
xERA: 5.38 xERA: 3.75
xwOBA: 0.353 xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: SF (Landen Roupp)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI SF Lg Avg
Record 71-63 54-79
R/Game 4.51 4.06 4.47
RA/Game 4.48 4.62 4.47
OPS 0.715 0.714 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.17 4.33 4.16
FIP 4.27 4.02 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.36 1.30
K/9 6.89 7.69 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.504 0.442 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.62 4.80 4.22
BP FIP 3.68 4.38 4.07
BP WHIP 1.21 1.50
BP K/9 7.47 7.05
BP Quality* 41.5 60.3 46.2
BP IP 420.3 352.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SF: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Bivens (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jason Foley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Walker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 16 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), strong crosswind (16 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9747 (Temp: 0.9981 | Wind: 0.9766)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.4 - SF 4.0
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.4 - SF 4.0
Win Probability: ARI 54.0% - SF 46.0%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -117 / SF +117
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 45.8%
Under 8.0: 44.6%
ARI -1.5: 37.5%
SF +1.5: 62.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.1 - SF 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.1 - SF 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ARI 45.1% - SF 54.9% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +122 / SF -122
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML -105 -117 +2.8%
SF ML -103 +117 -4.8%
ARI -1.5 +151 +166 -2.3%
SF +1.5 -184 -166 -2.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -6.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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