2026-08-28
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-28
Games: 15 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Rhett Lowder Home: David Peterson
ERA: 5.13 ERA: 5.17
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.5
K/9: 6.98 K/9: 7.83
BB/9: 3.62 BB/9: 3.73
FIP: 4.58 FIP: 3.92
IP: 107.0 IP: 118.3
xERA: 5.14 xERA: 4.87
xwOBA: 0.346 xwOBA: 0.338
Pitcher Edge: CHC (David Peterson)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN CHC Lg Avg
Record 63-71 76-58
R/Game 4.09 5.19 4.47
RA/Game 4.84 4.30 4.47
OPS 0.698 0.760 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.327 0.309
ERA 4.55 4.09 4.16
FIP 4.50 4.54 4.04
WHIP 1.41 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.17 7.70 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.424 0.585 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.60 4.42 4.22
BP FIP 4.59 4.50 4.07
BP WHIP 1.44 1.35
BP K/9 8.69 8.39
BP Quality* 50.8 48.8 46.2
BP IP 497.0 515.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9992 (Temp: 1.0101 | Wind: 0.9892)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 4.5 - CHC 6.3
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.5 - CHC 6.3
Win Probability: CIN 34.6% - CHC 65.4%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +189 / CHC -189
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 8.5: 65.5%
Under 8.5: 34.5%
CIN +1.5: 48.6%
CHC -1.5: 51.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.6 - CHC 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.6 - CHC 3.6
F5 Win Prob: CIN 35.9% - CHC 64.1% (Tie: 13.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +178 / CHC -178
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +168 +189 -2.7%
CHC ML -181 -189 +1.0%
CIN +1.5 -131 +106 -8.1%
CHC -1.5 +109 -106 +3.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +13.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -17.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01120
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | August 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tarik Skubal Home: Drew Anderson
ERA: 2.91 ERA: 4.09
WHIP: 0.95 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 10.89 K/9: 10.07
BB/9: 1.57 BB/9: 3.32
FIP: 2.5 FIP: 4.05
IP: 120.7 IP: 81.3
xERA: 2.94 xERA: 3.7
xwOBA: 0.267 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD DET Lg Avg
Record 80-54 62-71
R/Game 4.93 4.45 4.47
RA/Game 3.83 3.92 4.47
OPS 0.759 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.324 0.310 0.309
ERA 3.67 3.60 4.16
FIP 3.75 3.80 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.22 1.30
K/9 9.26 8.24 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.614 0.557 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.07 4.21 4.22
BP FIP 3.85 4.47 4.07
BP WHIP 1.30 1.34
BP K/9 9.81 8.31
BP Quality* 50.1 48.1 46.2
BP IP 420.0 397.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Evan Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0044 (Temp: 1.0054 | Wind: 0.9990)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 4.7 - DET 3.8
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.7 - DET 3.8
Win Probability: LAD 59.5% - DET 40.5%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -147 / DET +147
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 56.9%
Under 7.5: 43.1%
LAD -1.5: 42.9%
DET +1.5: 57.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 2.5 - DET 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.6 - DET 1.6
F5 Win Prob: LAD 66.6% - DET 33.4% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -200 / DET +200
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -182 -147 -5.0%
DET ML +169 +147 +3.3%
LAD -1.5 -107 +133 -8.8%
DET +1.5 -113 -133 +4.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +4.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -9.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | August 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Eury Pérez Home: Jackson Kent
ERA: 3.17 ERA: 8.03
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 2.11
K/9: 9.66 K/9: 10.22
BB/9: 3.67 BB/9: 8.03
FIP: 3.5 FIP: 4.56
IP: 127.7 IP: 12.3
xERA: 3.67 xERA: 6.09
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.372
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Eury Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA WSH Lg Avg
Record 68-66 63-73
R/Game 4.34 5.18 4.47
RA/Game 4.20 5.09 4.47
OPS 0.725 0.756 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.323 0.309
ERA 3.88 4.69 4.16
FIP 3.84 4.59 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.37 7.84 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.515 0.508 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.48 5.80 4.22
BP FIP 3.85 5.04 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.59
BP K/9 8.93 8.71
BP Quality* 47.4 62.3 46.2
BP IP 434.3 451.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Orlando Ribalta (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0138 (Temp: 1.0177 | Wind: 0.9961)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 6.0 - WSH 4.8
Simulated Avg: MIA 6.0 - WSH 4.8
Win Probability: MIA 59.8% - WSH 40.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -149 / WSH +149
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 8.5: 65.5%
Under 8.5: 34.5%
MIA -1.5: 45.9%
WSH +1.5: 54.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 3.4 - WSH 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 3.4 - WSH 2.4
F5 Win Prob: MIA 64.2% - WSH 35.8% (Tie: 13.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -179 / WSH +179
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML -147 -149 +0.3%
WSH ML +137 +149 -2.0%
MIA -1.5 +110 +118 -1.7%
WSH +1.5 -132 -118 -2.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +13.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -17.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01121
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | August 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael Wacha Home: Tanner Bibee
ERA: 3.49 ERA: 3.97
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 6.97 K/9: 7.08
BB/9: 2.32 BB/9: 2.53
FIP: 4.08 FIP: 4.53
IP: 162.7 IP: 156.3
xERA: 4.11 xERA: 4.31
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: KC (Michael Wacha)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC CLE Lg Avg
Record 60-75 68-66
R/Game 4.28 4.05 4.47
RA/Game 4.88 4.08 4.47
OPS 0.717 0.686 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.298 0.309
ERA 4.68 3.73 4.16
FIP 4.51 3.78 4.04
WHIP 1.40 1.26 1.30
K/9 7.43 9.46 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.440 0.497 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.99 3.60 4.22
BP FIP 5.46 3.55 4.07
BP WHIP 1.63 1.28
BP K/9 7.53 10.04
BP Quality* 61.0 42.4 46.2
BP IP 500.7 455.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0198 (Temp: 0.9969 | Wind: 1.0230)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.1 - CLE 4.5
Simulated Avg: KC 4.1 - CLE 4.5
Win Probability: KC 45.8% - CLE 54.2%
Fair Moneyline: KC +118 / CLE -118
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 7.5: 57.4%
Under 7.5: 42.6%
KC +1.5: 62.6%
CLE -1.5: 37.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.4 - CLE 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.4 - CLE 2.1
F5 Win Prob: KC 55.2% - CLE 44.8% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -123 / CLE +123
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +121 +118 +0.6%
CLE ML -130 -118 -2.3%
KC +1.5 -191 -167 -3.0%
CLE -1.5 +157 +167 -1.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +5.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -9.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ New York Mets
Regular Season | August 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Hunter Brown Home: Christian Scott
ERA: 3.51 ERA: 3.73
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 9.2 K/9: 11.18
BB/9: 5.21 BB/9: 3.93
FIP: 4.54 FIP: 3.38
IP: 74.3 IP: 89.3
xERA: 3.78 xERA: 3.97
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Christian Scott)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU NYM Lg Avg
Record 67-67 60-74
R/Game 4.57 4.12 4.47
RA/Game 4.90 4.51 4.47
OPS 0.729 0.695 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.300 0.309
ERA 4.65 4.11 4.16
FIP 4.46 3.90 4.04
WHIP 1.37 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.87 9.09 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.459 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.36 4.07 4.22
BP FIP 4.34 4.19 4.07
BP WHIP 1.31 1.35
BP K/9 9.05 9.27
BP Quality* 53.4 50.7 46.2
BP IP 477.3 252.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Xzavion Curry (46 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Austin Warren (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jefry Yan (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9933 (Temp: 1.0024 | Wind: 0.9909)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 4.2 - NYM 4.2
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.2 - NYM 4.2
Win Probability: HOU 49.4% - NYM 50.6%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +102 / NYM -102
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 46.4%
Under 8.0: 44.2%
HOU -1.5: 33.1%
NYM +1.5: 66.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.1 - NYM 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.1 - NYM 2.1
F5 Win Prob: HOU 50.0% - NYM 50.0% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +100 / NYM -100
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML -105 +102 -1.8%
NYM ML -102 -102 +0.1%
HOU -1.5 +144 +202 -7.9%
NYM +1.5 -175 -202 +3.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -6.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | August 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Casey Mize Home: Shane McClanahan
ERA: 3.44 ERA: 3.1
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 8.17 K/9: 8.3
BB/9: 2.24 BB/9: 3.02
FIP: 3.27 FIP: 3.23
IP: 104.7 IP: 107.3
xERA: 3.49 xERA: 4.14
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD TB Lg Avg
Record 72-62 79-54
R/Game 4.25 4.47 4.47
RA/Game 4.12 4.12 4.47
OPS 0.703 0.731 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.313 0.309
ERA 3.94 3.78 4.16
FIP 4.02 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.15 1.30
K/9 8.21 8.24 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.514 0.538 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.75 3.69 4.22
BP FIP 2.96 4.15 4.07
BP WHIP 1.13 1.17
BP K/9 10.99 8.53
BP Quality* 33.9 43.1 46.2
BP IP 278.3 419.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 3.5 - TB 3.4
Simulated Avg: SD 3.5 - TB 3.4
Win Probability: SD 50.9% - TB 49.1%
Fair Moneyline: SD -104 / TB +104
Avg Total Runs: 6.9
Over 7.5: 41.0%
Under 7.5: 59.0%
SD +1.5: 69.9%
TB -1.5: 30.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 1.9 - TB 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.9 - TB 1.9
F5 Win Prob: SD 48.9% - TB 51.1% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +104 / TB -104
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +120 -104 +5.4%
TB ML -129 +104 -7.2%
SD +1.5 -193 -232 +4.0%
TB -1.5 +158 +232 -8.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -11.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +6.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | August 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Dylan Cease
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA TOR Lg Avg
Record 64-70 65-70
R/Game 3.93 3.92 4.47
RA/Game 4.35 4.40 4.47
OPS 0.684 0.685 0.719
wOBA 0.298 0.295 0.309
ERA 4.10 4.00 4.16
FIP 3.76 3.89 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.32 1.30
K/9 8.69 8.82 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.453 0.447 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.23 3.84 4.22
BP FIP 4.05 4.05 4.07
BP WHIP 1.36 1.34
BP K/9 9.01 8.29
BP Quality* 47.5 55.3 46.2
BP IP 410.3 293.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
TIRED: Simeon Woods Richardson (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Michael Lorenzen (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brendon Little (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9992 (Temp: 0.9916 | Wind: 1.0077)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 3.2 - TOR 4.0
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.2 - TOR 4.0
Win Probability: SEA 40.7% - TOR 59.3%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +146 / TOR -146
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 7.0: 44.4%
Under 7.0: 45.0%
SEA +1.5: 59.8%
TOR -1.5: 40.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 1.3 - TOR 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.3 - TOR 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SEA 30.7% - TOR 69.3% (Tie: 19.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +225 / TOR -225
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML +138 +146 -1.3%
TOR ML -148 -146 -0.4%
SEA +1.5 -161 -149 -1.9%
TOR -1.5 +133 +149 -2.7%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -8.0%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -7.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 28, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tomoyuki Sugano Home: Grant Holmes
ERA: 4.96 ERA: 3.64
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 5.25 K/9: 7.28
BB/9: 2.07 BB/9: 3.93
FIP: 5.4 FIP: 4.79
IP: 121.7 IP: 123.7
xERA: 7.05 xERA: 4.84
xwOBA: 0.395 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Grant Holmes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL ATL Lg Avg
Record 52-82 79-55
R/Game 4.75 4.66 4.47
RA/Game 5.78 3.82 4.47
OPS 0.740 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.319 0.310 0.309
ERA 5.53 3.58 4.16
FIP 4.72 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.52 1.25 1.30
K/9 6.95 8.60 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.411 0.590 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.02 3.16 4.22
BP FIP 4.33 3.31 4.07
BP WHIP 1.52 1.17
BP K/9 7.34 9.37
BP Quality* 53.2 42.0 46.2
BP IP 337.0 347.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 29%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0123 (Temp: 1.0129 | Wind: 0.9994)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.9 - ATL 6.4
Simulated Avg: COL 4.9 - ATL 6.4
Win Probability: COL 37.3% - ATL 62.7%
Fair Moneyline: COL +168 / ATL -168
Avg Total Runs: 11.3
Over 9.0: 60.8%
Under 9.0: 31.6%
COL +1.5: 50.9%
ATL -1.5: 49.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.9 - ATL 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.9 - ATL 3.8
F5 Win Prob: COL 38.7% - ATL 61.3% (Tie: 12.8%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +158 / ATL -158
F5 Avg Total: 6.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +201 +168 +4.1%
ATL ML -218 -168 -5.8%
COL +1.5 -112 -104 -1.9%
ATL -1.5 -108 +104 -2.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +8.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -20.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.4%
Fair ML: -155 | Kelly: 4.43%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01122
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Patrick Sandoval Home: Cam Schlittler
ERA: 4.54 ERA: 2.16
WHIP: 1.76 WHIP: 0.96
K/9: 9.3 K/9: 10.99
BB/9: 4.08 BB/9: 2.11
FIP: 4.03 FIP: 2.51
IP: 39.7 IP: 158.0
xERA: 4.91 xERA: 2.91
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.266
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
Record 73-60 75-58
R/Game 4.51 4.48 4.47
RA/Game 3.75 3.73 4.47
OPS 0.729 0.718 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.308 0.309
ERA 3.47 3.24 4.16
FIP 3.54 3.57 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.66 9.02 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.584 0.583 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.04 2.98 4.22
BP FIP 3.31 3.83 4.07
BP WHIP 1.22 1.19
BP K/9 9.28 8.38
BP Quality* 39.1 42.7 46.2
BP IP 360.7 432.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Wyatt Olds (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yerry De los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Topa (34 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9947 (Temp: 1.0039 | Wind: 0.9908)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.3 - NYY 4.5
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.3 - NYY 4.5
Win Probability: BOS 37.0% - NYY 63.0%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +170 / NYY -170
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.0: 49.3%
Under 7.0: 40.6%
BOS +1.5: 55.1%
NYY -1.5: 44.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 1.5 - NYY 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.5 - NYY 2.7
F5 Win Prob: BOS 29.2% - NYY 70.8% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +243 / NYY -243
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML +138 +170 -5.0%
NYY ML -148 -170 +3.3%
BOS +1.5 -163 -123 -6.9%
NYY -1.5 +135 +123 +2.3%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -3.1%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -11.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cody Bradford Home: Logan Henderson
ERA: 3.05 ERA: 2.6
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 0.89
K/9: 5.66 K/9: 10.25
BB/9: 1.74 BB/9: 1.82
FIP: 3.05 FIP: 3.3
IP: 20.7 IP: 69.3
xERA: 5.24 xERA: 2.72
xwOBA: 0.349 xwOBA: 0.257
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX MIL Lg Avg
Record 66-68 83-51
R/Game 4.05 4.99 4.47
RA/Game 4.40 3.69 4.47
OPS 0.713 0.735 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.316 0.309
ERA 4.27 3.38 4.16
FIP 3.98 3.43 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.68 9.71 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.462 0.634 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.50 3.41 4.22
BP FIP 4.29 3.50 4.07
BP WHIP 1.37 1.25
BP K/9 8.22 8.89
BP Quality* 49.8 43.1 46.2
BP IP 432.3 453.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Peyton Gray (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9940 (Temp: 1.0078 | Wind: 0.9863)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.1 - MIL 4.9
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.1 - MIL 4.9
Win Probability: TEX 31.5% - MIL 68.5%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +217 / MIL -217
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 7.5: 52.1%
Under 7.5: 47.9%
TEX +1.5: 48.7%
MIL -1.5: 51.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 1.5 - MIL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.5 - MIL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: TEX 32.1% - MIL 67.9% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +211 / MIL -211
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +167 +217 -5.9%
MIL ML -180 -217 +4.2%
TEX +1.5 -143 +106 -10.2%
MIL -1.5 +118 -106 +5.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -0.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -4.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | August 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Luis Castillo Home: Dean Kremer
ERA: 5.19 ERA: 5.22
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 8.01 K/9: 8.9
BB/9: 2.82 BB/9: 2.91
FIP: 4.57 FIP: 5.2
IP: 118.0 IP: 58.7
xERA: 4.91 xERA: 4.28
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Luis Castillo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS MIN Lg Avg
Record 70-63 64-70
R/Game 4.82 4.59 4.47
RA/Game 4.49 5.01 4.47
OPS 0.731 0.724 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.313 0.309
ERA 4.16 4.69 4.16
FIP 4.11 4.15 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.48 8.46 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.532 0.460 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.63 4.50 4.22
BP FIP 4.60 3.89 4.07
BP WHIP 1.42 1.42
BP K/9 8.18 8.76
BP Quality* 50.9 46.9 46.2
BP IP 293.7 554.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9954 (Temp: 1.0096 | Wind: 0.9859)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 5.3 - MIN 5.4
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.2 - MIN 5.3
Win Probability: CWS 49.1% - MIN 50.9%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +104 / MIN -104
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 9.0: 55.8%
Under 9.0: 36.0%
CWS +1.5: 63.3%
MIN -1.5: 36.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 3.1 - MIN 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 3.1 - MIN 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CWS 51.6% - MIN 48.4% (Tie: 13.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -107 / MIN +107
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +114 +104 +2.4%
MIN ML -123 -104 -4.2%
CWS +1.5 -195 -173 -2.8%
MIN -1.5 +160 +173 -1.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +3.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -16.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | August 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jared Jones Home: Quinn Mathews
ERA: 4.76 ERA: 6.43
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.79
K/9: 10.19 K/9: 8.36
BB/9: 3.44 BB/9: 4.5
FIP: 4.09 FIP: 3.67
IP: 68.0 IP: 14.0
xERA: 3.67 xERA: 3.12
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: STL (Quinn Mathews)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT STL Lg Avg
Record 65-70 67-68
R/Game 4.87 4.44 4.47
RA/Game 4.69 4.54 4.47
OPS 0.733 0.700 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.303 0.309
ERA 4.22 4.24 4.16
FIP 3.71 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.33 7.83 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.517 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.67 4.38 4.22
BP FIP 3.61 4.08 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.35
BP K/9 9.72 7.93
BP Quality* 41.9 54.5 46.2
BP IP 437.0 509.7
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
STL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0138 (Temp: 1.0107 | Wind: 1.0031)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 5.8 - STL 4.3
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.8 - STL 4.3
Win Probability: PIT 62.4% - STL 37.6%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -166 / STL +166
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 7.5: 69.0%
Under 7.5: 31.0%
PIT -1.5: 48.0%
STL +1.5: 52.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 3.3 - STL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 3.3 - STL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: PIT 62.0% - STL 38.0% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -163 / STL +163
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML -114 -166 +9.2%
STL ML +106 +166 -11.0%
PIT -1.5 +144 +108 +7.0%
STL +1.5 -175 -108 -11.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +16.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -21.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01123
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Painter Home: Reid Detmers
ERA: 6.04 ERA: 3.62
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 7.7 K/9: 10.39
BB/9: 3.31 BB/9: 2.66
FIP: 4.89 FIP: 3.16
IP: 92.3 IP: 149.0
xERA: 4.81 xERA: 3.34
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI LAA Lg Avg
Record 74-60 52-82
R/Game 4.54 4.09 4.47
RA/Game 4.37 4.65 4.47
OPS 0.715 0.684 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.297 0.309
ERA 4.10 4.28 4.16
FIP 3.66 4.00 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.34 1.30
K/9 10.00 9.15 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.518 0.442 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 4.54 4.22
BP FIP 3.53 4.17 4.07
BP WHIP 1.32 1.39
BP K/9 10.07 9.22
BP Quality* 42.9 49.4 46.2
BP IP 455.7 338.7
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9994 (Temp: 1.0195 | Wind: 0.9803)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.1 - LAA 4.7
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.1 - LAA 4.7
Win Probability: PHI 43.8% - LAA 56.2%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +128 / LAA -128
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.0: 49.1%
Under 8.0: 41.5%
PHI -1.5: 28.6%
LAA +1.5: 71.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.0 - LAA 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.0 - LAA 2.9
F5 Win Prob: PHI 36.2% - LAA 63.8% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +176 / LAA -176
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -129 +128 -12.5%
LAA ML +120 -128 +10.7%
PHI -1.5 +124 +250 -16.0%
LAA +1.5 -149 -250 +11.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -149 | Edge: 11.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01124
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics
Regular Season | August 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Young Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL ATH Lg Avg
Record 65-69 53-81
R/Game 4.54 4.37 4.47
RA/Game 4.72 5.75 4.47
OPS 0.717 0.721 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.310 0.309
ERA 4.21 5.46 4.16
FIP 3.98 4.79 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.50 1.30
K/9 8.07 8.52 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.482 0.377 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.21 5.97 4.22
BP FIP 3.75 4.67 4.07
BP WHIP 1.31 1.62
BP K/9 8.76 9.19
BP Quality* 47.4 58.4 46.2
BP IP 443.0 469.0
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (37 pitches yesterday)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9778 (Temp: 0.9933 | Wind: 0.9844)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 5.0 - ATH 4.5
Simulated Avg: BAL 5.0 - ATH 4.5
Win Probability: BAL 54.0% - ATH 46.0%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -117 / ATH +117
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 9.5: 46.8%
Under 9.5: 53.2%
BAL -1.5: 38.9%
ATH +1.5: 61.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 2.5 - ATH 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.5 - ATH 2.4
F5 Win Prob: BAL 51.5% - ATH 48.5% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -106 / ATH +106
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML -108 -117 +2.1%
ATH ML +101 +117 -3.8%
BAL -1.5 +128 +157 -5.0%
ATH +1.5 -155 -157 +0.3%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -5.6%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +0.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | August 28, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kohl Drake Home: Blade Tidwell
ERA: 5.4 ERA: 3.58
WHIP: 1.56 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 7.02 K/9: 7.44
BB/9: 3.24 BB/9: 3.31
FIP: 4.96 FIP: 3.34
IP: 16.7 IP: 32.7
xERA: 8.75 xERA: 3.24
xwOBA: 0.43 xwOBA: 0.28
Pitcher Edge: SF (Blade Tidwell)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SF Lg Avg
Record 71-64 55-79
R/Game 4.49 4.07 4.47
RA/Game 4.49 4.59 4.47
OPS 0.713 0.714 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.305 0.309
ERA 4.19 4.31 4.16
FIP 4.27 4.03 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.36 1.30
K/9 6.89 7.68 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.500 0.446 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.67 4.75 4.22
BP FIP 3.67 4.36 4.07
BP WHIP 1.21 1.49
BP K/9 7.45 7.05
BP Quality* 41.6 55.4 46.2
BP IP 424.0 356.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Trent Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Walker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9671 (Temp: 0.9866 | Wind: 0.9803)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 3.9 - SF 3.9
Simulated Avg: ARI 3.9 - SF 3.9
Win Probability: ARI 49.3% - SF 50.7%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +103 / SF -103
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.0: 40.9%
Under 8.0: 49.4%
ARI -1.5: 32.1%
SF +1.5: 67.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 1.8 - SF 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 1.8 - SF 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ARI 40.4% - SF 59.6% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +148 / SF -148
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML -115 +103 -4.2%
SF ML +107 -103 +2.4%
ARI -1.5 +136 +212 -10.3%
SF +1.5 -164 -212 +5.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -11.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -3.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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