2026-08-29
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-29
Games: 17 | Plays: 1
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jake Bennett Home: Carlos Rodón
ERA: 3.49 ERA: 3.15
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 6.88 K/9: 9.61
BB/9: 1.85 BB/9: 4.97
FIP: 3.23 FIP: 3.58
IP: 87.7 IP: 54.3
xERA: 3.29 xERA: 4.0
xwOBA: 0.282 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Jake Bennett)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
Record 73-61 76-58
R/Game 4.48 4.46 4.47
RA/Game 3.73 3.70 4.46
OPS 0.728 0.717 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.46 3.22 4.16
FIP 3.54 3.57 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.68 9.02 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.583 0.584 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.02 2.96 4.22
BP FIP 3.28 3.83 4.06
BP WHIP 1.21 1.19
BP K/9 9.31 8.33
BP Quality* 38.8 41.2 46.1
BP IP 363.3 435.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Wyatt Olds (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Curtis Mead, Mickey Gasper, Masataka Yoshida, Anthony Seigler
Curtis Mead Second Base OPS: 0.851 (285 AB)
Mickey Gasper Designated Hitter OPS: 0.839 (131 AB)
Masataka Yoshida Designated Hitter OPS: 0.746 (263 AB)
Anthony Seigler Second Base OPS: 0.736 (148 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.2% of full strength
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Aaron Judge, Luis García Jr., Trent Grisham, Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Aaron Judge Outfielder OPS: 0.908 (214 AB)
Luis García Jr. First Base OPS: 0.874 (433 AB)
Trent Grisham Outfielder OPS: 0.724 (398 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Second Base OPS: 0.706 (434 AB)
Run Adjustment: 86.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9898 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 0.9898)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 3.4 - NYY 3.2
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.4 - NYY 3.2
Win Probability: BOS 52.6% - NYY 47.4%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -111 / NYY +111
Avg Total Runs: 6.6
Over 8.0: 27.9%
Under 8.0: 62.6%
BOS +1.5: 71.9%
NYY -1.5: 28.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 1.9 - NYY 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.9 - NYY 1.7
F5 Win Prob: BOS 53.7% - NYY 46.3% (Tie: 20.6%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -116 / NYY +116
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML +105 -111 +3.8%
NYY ML -113 +111 -5.6%
BOS +1.5 -206 -256 +4.6%
NYY -1.5 +168 +256 -9.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -24.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +10.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01125
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (Game 2)
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Max Fried
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
Record 73-61 76-58
R/Game 4.48 4.46 4.47
RA/Game 3.73 3.70 4.46
OPS 0.728 0.717 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.46 3.22 4.16
FIP 3.54 3.57 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.68 9.02 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.583 0.584 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.02 2.96 4.22
BP FIP 3.28 3.83 4.06
BP WHIP 1.21 1.19
BP K/9 9.31 8.33
BP Quality* 40.3 42.7 46.1
BP IP 363.3 435.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Wyatt Olds (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Curtis Mead, Mickey Gasper, Masataka Yoshida, Anthony Seigler
Curtis Mead Second Base OPS: 0.851 (285 AB)
Mickey Gasper Designated Hitter OPS: 0.839 (131 AB)
Masataka Yoshida Designated Hitter OPS: 0.746 (263 AB)
Anthony Seigler Second Base OPS: 0.736 (148 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.2% of full strength
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Aaron Judge, Luis García Jr., Trent Grisham, Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Aaron Judge Outfielder OPS: 0.908 (214 AB)
Luis García Jr. First Base OPS: 0.874 (433 AB)
Trent Grisham Outfielder OPS: 0.724 (398 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Second Base OPS: 0.706 (434 AB)
Run Adjustment: 86.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9898 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 0.9898)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 2.9 - NYY 3.7
Simulated Avg: BOS 2.9 - NYY 3.7
Win Probability: BOS 40.2% - NYY 59.8%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +149 / NYY -149
Avg Total Runs: 6.6
Over 7.5: 37.3%
Under 7.5: 62.7%
BOS +1.5: 60.5%
NYY -1.5: 39.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 1.4 - NYY 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.4 - NYY 2.1
F5 Win Prob: BOS 33.5% - NYY 66.5% (Tie: 20.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +199 / NYY -199
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML +116 +149 -6.1%
NYY ML -124 -149 +4.4%
BOS +1.5 -199 -153 -6.1%
NYY -1.5 +163 +153 +1.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -15.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +10.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Under 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01126
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Blake Snell Home: Keider Montero
ERA: 2.57 ERA: 3.3
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.0
K/9: 11.14 K/9: 5.99
BB/9: 3.86 BB/9: 2.02
FIP: 1.91 FIP: 3.8
IP: 21.0 IP: 133.7
xERA: 2.29 xERA: 3.49
xwOBA: 0.236 xwOBA: 0.29
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Blake Snell)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD DET Lg Avg
Record 81-54 62-72
R/Game 4.91 4.43 4.47
RA/Game 3.81 3.91 4.46
OPS 0.759 0.715 0.718
wOBA 0.324 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.65 3.58 4.16
FIP 3.73 3.80 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.22 1.30
K/9 9.28 8.25 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.614 0.556 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.04 4.22 4.22
BP FIP 3.84 4.46 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.34
BP K/9 9.85 8.30
BP Quality* 50.0 49.6 46.1
BP IP 423.0 401.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Evan Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Stewart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Dalton Rushing, Andy Pages, Ryan Ward, Will Smith, Miguel Rojas
Dalton Rushing Catcher OPS: 0.810 (217 AB)
Andy Pages Outfielder OPS: 0.796 (493 AB)
Ryan Ward Outfielder OPS: 0.738 (55 AB)
Will Smith Catcher OPS: 0.720 (173 AB)
Miguel Rojas Second Base OPS: 0.717 (180 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.1% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Riley Greene, Colt Keith
Riley Greene Outfielder OPS: 0.816 (422 AB)
Colt Keith Third Base OPS: 0.732 (346 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9884 (Temp: 1.0160 | Wind: 0.9728)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.0 - DET 3.8
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.0 - DET 3.8
Win Probability: LAD 51.9% - DET 48.1%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -108 / DET +108
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.0: 49.6%
Under 7.0: 40.1%
LAD -1.5: 34.5%
DET +1.5: 65.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.0 - DET 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.0 - DET 1.8
F5 Win Prob: LAD 54.1% - DET 45.9% (Tie: 19.3%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -118 / DET +118
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -176 -108 -11.9%
DET ML +163 +108 +10.1%
LAD -1.5 -103 +190 -16.2%
DET +1.5 -117 -190 +11.6%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -2.8%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -12.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Detroit Tigers +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -117 | Edge: 11.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01127
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Erick Fedde Home: Bailey Ober
ERA: 4.18 ERA: 4.49
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 6.39 K/9: 6.15
BB/9: 3.27 BB/9: 2.41
FIP: 5.19 FIP: 4.7
IP: 118.3 IP: 108.3
xERA: 4.68 xERA: 4.74
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.334
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Bailey Ober)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS MIN Lg Avg
Record 71-63 64-71
R/Game 4.84 4.59 4.47
RA/Game 4.49 5.02 4.46
OPS 0.732 0.725 0.718
wOBA 0.314 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.16 4.70 4.16
FIP 4.12 4.16 4.04
WHIP 1.32 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.47 8.45 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.534 0.458 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.61 4.48 4.22
BP FIP 4.59 3.88 4.06
BP WHIP 1.42 1.42
BP K/9 8.21 8.74
BP Quality* 52.2 49.8 46.1
BP IP 295.0 559.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Hagen Smith (33 pitches yesterday)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (38 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9907 (Temp: 1.0060 | Wind: 0.9847)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 5.2 - MIN 5.3
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.2 - MIN 5.3
Win Probability: CWS 48.9% - MIN 51.1%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +105 / MIN -105
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 9.0: 56.0%
Under 9.0: 36.0%
CWS -1.5: 35.1%
MIN +1.5: 64.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 3.0 - MIN 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 3.0 - MIN 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CWS 50.6% - MIN 49.4% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -103 / MIN +103
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +106 +105 +0.3%
MIN ML -114 -105 -2.2%
CWS -1.5 +162 +185 -3.0%
MIN +1.5 -198 -185 -1.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +3.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -16.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Lake Bachar Home: Kyle Leahy
ERA: 3.7 ERA: 3.13
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 9.25 K/9: 8.19
BB/9: 3.7 BB/9: 2.64
FIP: 4.42 FIP: 3.39
IP: 73.0 IP: 126.3
xERA: 3.64 xERA: 4.84
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: STL (Kyle Leahy)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT STL Lg Avg
Record 65-71 68-68
R/Game 4.84 4.44 4.47
RA/Game 4.68 4.51 4.46
OPS 0.732 0.699 0.718
wOBA 0.318 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.21 4.22 4.16
FIP 3.71 3.92 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.32 7.85 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.515 0.492 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.64 4.35 4.22
BP FIP 3.60 4.07 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.35
BP K/9 9.69 7.95
BP Quality* 41.7 54.4 46.1
BP IP 440.3 513.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
STL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0009 (Temp: 1.0246 | Wind: 0.9769)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 4.8 - STL 4.2
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.8 - STL 4.2
Win Probability: PIT 56.0% - STL 44.0%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -127 / STL +127
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.0: 52.1%
Under 8.0: 38.8%
PIT +1.5: 71.2%
STL -1.5: 28.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.4 - STL 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.4 - STL 2.4
F5 Win Prob: PIT 51.1% - STL 48.9% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -104 / STL +104
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +111 -127 +8.6%
STL ML -119 +127 -10.3%
PIT +1.5 -206 -247 +3.9%
STL -1.5 +168 +247 -8.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Abbott Home: Kevin Gausman
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 4.37
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 7.06 K/9: 8.92
BB/9: 4.21 BB/9: 2.45
FIP: 4.55 FIP: 3.49
IP: 145.3 IP: 150.3
xERA: 4.68 xERA: 3.86
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.304
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Kevin Gausman)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN CHC Lg Avg
Record 64-71 76-59
R/Game 4.13 5.21 4.47
RA/Game 4.86 4.34 4.46
OPS 0.701 0.761 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.328 0.310
ERA 4.58 4.12 4.16
FIP 4.51 4.57 4.04
WHIP 1.42 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.16 7.72 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.427 0.583 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.65 4.51 4.22
BP FIP 4.61 4.57 4.06
BP WHIP 1.45 1.36
BP K/9 8.66 8.40
BP Quality* 54.1 52.5 46.1
BP IP 501.0 516.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Civale (47 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9893 (Temp: 1.0174 | Wind: 0.9724)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 4.2 - CHC 6.1
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.2 - CHC 6.1
Win Probability: CIN 33.4% - CHC 66.6%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +200 / CHC -200
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.0: 53.5%
Under 9.0: 38.1%
CIN +1.5: 47.5%
CHC -1.5: 52.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.2 - CHC 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.2 - CHC 3.3
F5 Win Prob: CIN 33.8% - CHC 66.2% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +196 / CHC -196
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +173 +200 -3.3%
CHC ML -186 -200 +1.6%
CIN +1.5 -131 +111 -9.2%
CHC -1.5 +109 -111 +4.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +1.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -14.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kade Anderson Home: José Soriano
ERA: 4.76 ERA: 3.43
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 7.94 K/9: 8.92
BB/9: 3.18 BB/9: 4.05
FIP: 6.96 FIP: 3.64
IP: 5.7 IP: 144.3
xERA: 2.8 xERA: 4.46
xwOBA: 0.261 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: TOR (José Soriano)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA TOR Lg Avg
Record 64-71 66-70
R/Game 3.90 3.95 4.47
RA/Game 4.38 4.38 4.46
OPS 0.683 0.689 0.718
wOBA 0.298 0.296 0.310
ERA 4.13 3.98 4.16
FIP 3.79 3.89 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.65 8.82 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.448 0.453 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.27 3.73 4.22
BP FIP 4.08 4.06 4.06
BP WHIP 1.36 1.32
BP K/9 8.99 8.14
BP Quality* 47.8 47.4 46.1
BP IP 413.3 273.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (45 pitches yesterday)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9672 (Temp: 1.0073 | Wind: 0.9601)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 3.6 - TOR 4.0
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.6 - TOR 4.0
Win Probability: SEA 45.6% - TOR 54.4%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +120 / TOR -120
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.5: 48.2%
Under 7.5: 51.8%
SEA -1.5: 28.6%
TOR +1.5: 71.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 1.9 - TOR 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.9 - TOR 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SEA 45.2% - TOR 54.8% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +121 / TOR -121
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML +101 +120 -4.2%
TOR ML -108 -120 +2.5%
SEA -1.5 +163 +250 -9.5%
TOR +1.5 -199 -250 +4.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -4.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -0.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Merrill Kelly Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SF Lg Avg
Record 72-64 55-80
R/Game 4.53 4.09 4.47
RA/Game 4.50 4.63 4.46
OPS 0.715 0.713 0.718
wOBA 0.307 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.20 4.35 4.16
FIP 4.27 4.04 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.36 1.30
K/9 6.92 7.69 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.503 0.443 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 4.80 4.22
BP FIP 3.65 4.33 4.06
BP WHIP 1.21 1.49
BP K/9 7.51 7.09
BP Quality* 45.9 55.4 46.1
BP IP 429.0 360.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Spencer Bivens (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Walker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9686 (Temp: 0.9873 | Wind: 0.9811)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.4 - SF 4.9
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.4 - SF 4.9
Win Probability: ARI 45.8% - SF 54.2%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +118 / SF -118
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 7.5: 63.6%
Under 7.5: 36.4%
ARI -1.5: 30.9%
SF +1.5: 69.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.3 - SF 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.3 - SF 3.1
F5 Win Prob: ARI 37.7% - SF 62.3% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +165 / SF -165
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -104 +118 -5.2%
SF ML -104 -118 +3.2%
ARI -1.5 +153 +223 -8.6%
SF +1.5 -186 -223 +4.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +11.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -15.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01128
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants (Game 2)
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Mitch Bratt Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SF Lg Avg
Record 72-64 55-80
R/Game 4.53 4.09 4.47
RA/Game 4.50 4.63 4.46
OPS 0.715 0.713 0.718
wOBA 0.307 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.20 4.35 4.16
FIP 4.27 4.04 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.36 1.30
K/9 6.92 7.69 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.503 0.443 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 4.80 4.22
BP FIP 3.65 4.33 4.06
BP WHIP 1.21 1.49
BP K/9 7.51 7.09
BP Quality* 50.4 59.9 46.1
BP IP 429.0 360.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Spencer Bivens (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Walker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9686 (Temp: 0.9873 | Wind: 0.9811)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.6 - SF 4.3
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.6 - SF 4.3
Win Probability: ARI 52.9% - SF 47.1%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -112 / SF +112
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 7.5: 59.5%
Under 7.5: 40.5%
ARI -1.5: 36.8%
SF +1.5: 63.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.3 - SF 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.3 - SF 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ARI 48.4% - SF 51.6% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +107 / SF -107
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -119 -112 -1.5%
SF ML +111 +112 -0.3%
ARI -1.5 +138 +172 -5.2%
SF +1.5 -167 -172 +0.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +7.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -11.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -147 | Kelly: 3.75%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01129
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sandy Alcantara Home: Cade Cavalli
ERA: 3.38 ERA: 3.21
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 6.71 K/9: 10.23
BB/9: 2.4 BB/9: 2.6
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 3.18
IP: 183.7 IP: 148.7
xERA: 3.64 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Cade Cavalli)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA WSH Lg Avg
Record 68-67 64-73
R/Game 4.33 5.20 4.47
RA/Game 4.24 5.07 4.46
OPS 0.725 0.757 0.718
wOBA 0.314 0.324 0.310
ERA 3.92 4.67 4.16
FIP 3.86 4.60 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.38 7.81 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.509 0.512 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.51 5.80 4.22
BP FIP 3.86 5.06 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.59
BP K/9 8.89 8.70
BP Quality* 47.5 60.9 46.1
BP IP 439.3 453.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Patrick Monteverde (65 pitches yesterday)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0147 (Temp: 1.0181 | Wind: 0.9966)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.3 - WSH 4.9
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.3 - WSH 4.9
Win Probability: MIA 44.4% - WSH 55.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +125 / WSH -125
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.0: 53.8%
Under 8.0: 37.0%
MIA -1.5: 29.5%
WSH +1.5: 70.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 1.9 - WSH 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.9 - WSH 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIA 40.2% - WSH 59.8% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +149 / WSH -149
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML -104 +125 -6.6%
WSH ML -104 -125 +4.6%
MIA -1.5 +151 +239 -10.3%
WSH +1.5 -184 -239 +5.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +1.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -15.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Daniel Lynch IV Home: Foster Griffin
ERA: 2.93 ERA: 3.19
WHIP: 1.03 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 6.63 K/9: 8.14
BB/9: 2.62 BB/9: 2.29
FIP: 3.39 FIP: 4.06
IP: 58.3 IP: 149.3
xERA: 3.94 xERA: 4.22
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.317
Pitcher Edge: KC (Daniel Lynch IV)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC CLE Lg Avg
Record 61-75 68-67
R/Game 4.27 4.02 4.47
RA/Game 4.85 4.07 4.46
OPS 0.717 0.684 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.298 0.310
ERA 4.65 3.73 4.16
FIP 4.48 3.77 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.26 1.30
K/9 7.46 9.46 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.443 0.494 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.97 3.61 4.22
BP FIP 5.45 3.56 4.06
BP WHIP 1.63 1.27
BP K/9 7.55 10.05
BP Quality* 60.9 42.4 46.1
BP IP 501.7 458.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0094 (Temp: 1.0156 | Wind: 0.9939)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 3.8 - CLE 4.2
Simulated Avg: KC 3.8 - CLE 4.2
Win Probability: KC 46.4% - CLE 53.6%
Fair Moneyline: KC +116 / CLE -116
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.0: 42.0%
Under 8.0: 48.0%
KC +1.5: 64.1%
CLE -1.5: 35.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.2 - CLE 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.1 - CLE 1.8
F5 Win Prob: KC 55.9% - CLE 44.1% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -127 / CLE +127
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +138 +116 +4.3%
CLE ML -148 -116 -6.0%
KC +1.5 -168 -178 +1.4%
CLE -1.5 +139 +178 -5.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -10.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ New York Mets
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bennett Sousa Home: Nolan McLean
ERA: 6.27 ERA: 3.21
WHIP: 1.82 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 10.13 K/9: 10.17
BB/9: 4.82 BB/9: 3.51
FIP: 3.85 FIP: 3.32
IP: 18.7 IP: 148.7
xERA: 3.51 xERA: 3.64
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU NYM Lg Avg
Record 68-67 60-75
R/Game 4.56 4.10 4.47
RA/Game 4.87 4.50 4.46
OPS 0.727 0.693 0.718
wOBA 0.310 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.63 4.10 4.16
FIP 4.43 3.89 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.91 9.08 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.457 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 4.02 4.22
BP FIP 4.32 4.16 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.35
BP K/9 9.08 9.32
BP Quality* 48.7 47.4 46.1
BP IP 479.7 255.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Dedniel Núñez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9940 (Temp: 1.0097 | Wind: 0.9844)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 3.9 - NYM 4.8
Simulated Avg: HOU 3.9 - NYM 4.8
Win Probability: HOU 40.9% - NYM 59.1%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +145 / NYM -145
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.0: 48.7%
Under 8.0: 42.1%
HOU +1.5: 57.9%
NYM -1.5: 42.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.0 - NYM 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.0 - NYM 2.8
F5 Win Prob: HOU 36.1% - NYM 63.9% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +177 / NYM -177
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +121 +145 -4.4%
NYM ML -130 -145 +2.6%
HOU +1.5 -184 -138 -6.9%
NYM -1.5 +151 +138 +2.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Walker Buehler Home: Nick Martinez
ERA: 4.63 ERA: 2.93
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 7.69 K/9: 5.3
BB/9: 3.49 BB/9: 1.34
FIP: 4.1 FIP: 3.87
IP: 126.3 IP: 147.7
xERA: 4.17 xERA: 4.28
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD TB Lg Avg
Record 72-63 80-54
R/Game 4.24 4.51 4.47
RA/Game 4.16 4.12 4.46
OPS 0.702 0.732 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.314 0.310
ERA 3.94 3.77 4.16
FIP 4.03 3.95 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.14 1.30
K/9 8.20 8.22 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.541 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.77 3.68 4.22
BP FIP 2.97 4.15 4.06
BP WHIP 1.14 1.17
BP K/9 11.00 8.50
BP Quality* 35.6 44.6 46.1
BP IP 279.0 420.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Griffin Canning (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.7 - TB 4.1
Simulated Avg: SD 3.7 - TB 4.1
Win Probability: SD 46.2% - TB 53.8%
Fair Moneyline: SD +117 / TB -117
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.0: 39.9%
Under 8.0: 50.1%
SD +1.5: 64.1%
TB -1.5: 35.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.0 - TB 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.0 - TB 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SD 42.4% - TB 57.6% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +136 / TB -136
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +119 +117 +0.5%
TB ML -127 -117 -2.1%
SD +1.5 -191 -179 -1.5%
TB -1.5 +157 +179 -3.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -12.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -2.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Feltner Home: Martín Pérez
ERA: 6.08 ERA: 3.12
WHIP: 1.55 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 6.45 K/9: 6.63
BB/9: 3.96 BB/9: 3.75
FIP: 5.52 FIP: 4.23
IP: 97.7 IP: 115.3
xERA: 5.53 xERA: 4.43
xwOBA: 0.357 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Martín Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL ATL Lg Avg
Record 52-83 80-55
R/Game 4.75 4.67 4.47
RA/Game 5.79 3.82 4.46
OPS 0.740 0.725 0.718
wOBA 0.319 0.311 0.310
ERA 5.54 3.58 4.16
FIP 4.71 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.53 1.25 1.30
K/9 6.95 8.57 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.411 0.591 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.96 3.15 4.22
BP FIP 4.31 3.32 4.06
BP WHIP 1.51 1.17
BP K/9 7.31 9.32
BP Quality* 52.8 40.6 46.1
BP IP 341.0 351.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0067 (Temp: 1.0216 | Wind: 0.9854)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.5 - ATL 6.2
Simulated Avg: COL 4.5 - ATL 6.2
Win Probability: COL 35.0% - ATL 65.0%
Fair Moneyline: COL +185 / ATL -185
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 9.0: 56.6%
Under 9.0: 35.5%
COL +1.5: 49.0%
ATL -1.5: 51.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.6 - ATL 3.7
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.6 - ATL 3.6
F5 Win Prob: COL 35.9% - ATL 64.0% (Tie: 12.9%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +178 / ATL -178
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +201 +185 +1.8%
ATL ML -218 -185 -3.6%
COL +1.5 -109 +104 -3.2%
ATL -1.5 -111 -104 -1.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +4.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -16.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cal Quantrill Home: Shane Drohan
ERA: 2.9 ERA: 3.84
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 6.45 K/9: 8.89
BB/9: 2.37 BB/9: 3.08
FIP: 3.85 FIP: 3.26
IP: 83.7 IP: 105.3
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 3.59
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Shane Drohan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX MIL Lg Avg
Record 66-69 84-51
R/Game 4.03 4.99 4.47
RA/Game 4.41 3.67 4.46
OPS 0.711 0.737 0.718
wOBA 0.307 0.317 0.310
ERA 4.29 3.36 4.16
FIP 3.98 3.42 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.63 9.73 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.458 0.637 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.56 3.40 4.22
BP FIP 4.28 3.49 4.06
BP WHIP 1.38 1.25
BP K/9 8.28 8.95
BP Quality* 50.1 41.5 46.1
BP IP 456.3 455.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: DL Hall (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9882 (Temp: 1.0036 | Wind: 0.9846)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.4 - MIL 4.8
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.4 - MIL 4.8
Win Probability: TEX 35.4% - MIL 64.6%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +183 / MIL -183
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 43.1%
Under 8.0: 47.1%
TEX +1.5: 52.7%
MIL -1.5: 47.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 1.8 - MIL 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.8 - MIL 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TEX 39.5% - MIL 60.5% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +153 / MIL -153
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +145 +183 -5.5%
MIL ML -156 -183 +3.7%
TEX +1.5 -165 -111 -9.6%
MIL -1.5 +136 +111 +4.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Shane Baz Home: Jack Perkins
ERA: 4.04 ERA: 6.68
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.48
K/9: 8.03 K/9: 10.36
BB/9: 3.09 BB/9: 3.79
FIP: 3.29 FIP: 4.51
IP: 151.3 IP: 90.3
xERA: 4.05 xERA: 4.08
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Shane Baz)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL ATH Lg Avg
Record 66-69 53-82
R/Game 4.54 4.36 4.47
RA/Game 4.71 5.73 4.46
OPS 0.716 0.720 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.19 5.43 4.16
FIP 3.98 4.77 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.50 1.30
K/9 8.05 8.54 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.483 0.377 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.20 5.92 4.22
BP FIP 3.73 4.65 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.61
BP K/9 8.76 9.19
BP Quality* 48.7 58.0 46.1
BP IP 446.0 473.0
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brady Basso (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9755 (Temp: 0.9881 | Wind: 0.9872)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 5.4 - ATH 4.3
Simulated Avg: BAL 5.4 - ATH 4.3
Win Probability: BAL 59.5% - ATH 40.5%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -147 / ATH +147
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.5: 48.8%
Under 9.5: 51.2%
BAL -1.5: 44.7%
ATH +1.5: 55.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 3.0 - ATH 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.9 - ATH 2.2
F5 Win Prob: BAL 61.3% - ATH 38.7% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -158 / ATH +158
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML -140 -147 +1.2%
ATH ML +131 +147 -2.8%
BAL -1.5 +106 +124 -3.9%
ATH +1.5 -127 -124 -0.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -3.6%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -1.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 29, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cristopher Sánchez Home: Ryan Johnson
ERA: 2.62 ERA: 5.75
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 10.37 K/9: 6.68
BB/9: 2.03 BB/9: 4.14
FIP: 2.55 FIP: 6.09
IP: 168.3 IP: 67.3
xERA: 3.34 xERA: 5.42
xwOBA: 0.284 xwOBA: 0.354
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI LAA Lg Avg
Record 75-60 52-83
R/Game 4.54 4.08 4.47
RA/Game 4.36 4.65 4.46
OPS 0.716 0.682 0.718
wOBA 0.307 0.296 0.310
ERA 4.10 4.28 4.16
FIP 3.65 4.01 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.35 1.30
K/9 9.99 9.12 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.519 0.440 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 4.61 4.22
BP FIP 3.52 4.21 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.39
BP K/9 10.07 9.22
BP Quality* 42.8 51.4 46.1
BP IP 458.7 341.7
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Sammy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0119 (Temp: 1.0172 | Wind: 0.9948)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 5.8 - LAA 3.3
Simulated Avg: PHI 5.8 - LAA 3.3
Win Probability: PHI 72.5% - LAA 27.5%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -264 / LAA +264
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.0: 52.4%
Under 8.0: 38.6%
PHI -1.5: 57.8%
LAA +1.5: 42.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 3.5 - LAA 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 3.5 - LAA 1.6
F5 Win Prob: PHI 78.5% - LAA 21.5% (Tie: 13.4%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -365 / LAA +365
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -229 -264 +2.9%
LAA ML +212 +264 -4.6%
PHI -1.5 -137 -137 -0.0%
LAA +1.5 +114 +137 -4.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================