2026-08-30
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-30
Games: 14 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | August 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Janson Junk Home: Andrew Alvarez
ERA: 4.21 ERA: 3.72
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 6.22 K/9: 8.5
BB/9: 2.38 BB/9: 4.04
FIP: 4.1 FIP: 3.32
IP: 98.3 IP: 84.7
xERA: 4.19 xERA: 4.58
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Andrew Alvarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA WSH Lg Avg
Record 68-68 65-73
R/Game 4.32 5.20 4.46
RA/Game 4.24 5.06 4.46
OPS 0.724 0.755 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.323 0.309
ERA 3.92 4.66 4.16
FIP 3.84 4.58 4.03
WHIP 1.25 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.36 7.87 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.509 0.513 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 5.81 4.21
BP FIP 3.85 5.03 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.59
BP K/9 8.90 8.72
BP Quality* 45.8 62.3 46.1
BP IP 443.0 457.0
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
WSH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tom Cosgrove (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orlando Ribalta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Tolman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers, Owen Caissie, Joe Mack
Griffin Conine Outfielder OPS: 0.840 (197 AB)
Kyle Stowers First Base OPS: 0.788 (367 AB)
Owen Caissie Outfielder OPS: 0.705 (270 AB)
Joe Mack Catcher OPS: 0.700 (245 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.8% of full strength
WSH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: James Wood, Joey Wiemer, Keibert Ruiz
James Wood Outfielder OPS: 0.928 (437 AB)
Joey Wiemer Outfielder OPS: 0.912 (70 AB)
Keibert Ruiz Catcher OPS: 0.769 (289 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9898 (Temp: 1.0178 | Wind: 0.9724)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 4.1 - WSH 4.6
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.1 - WSH 4.6
Win Probability: MIA 45.1% - WSH 54.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +122 / WSH -122
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 9.0: 39.7%
Under 9.0: 51.1%
MIA -1.5: 29.5%
WSH +1.5: 70.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 1.9 - WSH 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.9 - WSH 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIA 40.3% - WSH 59.7% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +148 / WSH -148
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +106 +122 -3.5%
WSH ML -114 -122 +1.7%
MIA -1.5 +158 +238 -9.2%
WSH +1.5 -193 -238 +4.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -12.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -1.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mason Adams Home: Tyler Mahle
ERA: 2.25 ERA: 4.41
WHIP: 1.5 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 11.25 K/9: 8.52
BB/9: 6.75 BB/9: 3.19
FIP: 6.1 FIP: 4.03
IP: 4.0 IP: 118.3
xERA: 4.13 xERA: 4.28
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Tyler Mahle)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL ATL Lg Avg
Record 52-84 81-55
R/Game 4.72 4.65 4.46
RA/Game 5.76 3.80 4.46
OPS 0.739 0.724 0.718
wOBA 0.318 0.311 0.309
ERA 5.52 3.56 4.16
FIP 4.71 3.92 4.03
WHIP 1.52 1.25 1.30
K/9 6.93 8.57 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.410 0.592 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.76 3.14 4.21
BP FIP 4.30 3.31 4.06
BP WHIP 1.54 1.17
BP K/9 7.64 9.34
BP Quality* 58.3 37.5 46.1
BP IP 268.7 352.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Jaden Hill (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nick Frasso (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Cole Carrigg, Kyle Karros
Cole Carrigg Outfielder OPS: 0.789 (232 AB)
Kyle Karros Third Base OPS: 0.779 (346 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.8% of full strength
ATL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Lane Thomas, Dominic Smith, Mike Yastrzemski
Lane Thomas Outfielder OPS: 0.710 (321 AB)
Dominic Smith Designated Hitter OPS: 0.699 (258 AB)
Mike Yastrzemski Outfielder OPS: 0.686 (301 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0249 (Temp: 1.0230 | Wind: 1.0020)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 4.3 - ATL 5.7
Simulated Avg: COL 4.3 - ATL 5.7
Win Probability: COL 36.8% - ATL 63.2%
Fair Moneyline: COL +171 / ATL -171
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 8.5: 59.8%
Under 8.5: 40.2%
COL +1.5: 52.0%
ATL -1.5: 48.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 2.6 - ATL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.6 - ATL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: COL 43.5% - ATL 56.5% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +130 / ATL -130
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +217 +171 +5.3%
ATL ML -235 -171 -7.0%
COL +1.5 -107 -109 +0.3%
ATL -1.5 -112 +109 -4.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +7.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -12.2%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.90%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01130
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | August 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ranger Suarez Home: Will Warren
ERA: 3.35 ERA: 4.39
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 8.9 K/9: 8.93
BB/9: 2.81 BB/9: 3.19
FIP: 2.83 FIP: 4.23
IP: 118.3 IP: 127.0
xERA: 3.61 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
Record 74-62 77-59
R/Game 4.47 4.46 4.46
RA/Game 3.74 3.71 4.46
OPS 0.727 0.714 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.307 0.309
ERA 3.48 3.23 4.16
FIP 3.51 3.56 4.03
WHIP 1.22 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.66 9.02 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.581 0.584 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.10 2.99 4.21
BP FIP 3.26 3.79 4.06
BP WHIP 1.21 1.19
BP K/9 9.27 8.33
BP Quality* 41.9 47.1 46.1
BP IP 369.0 445.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Raymond Burgos (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brayan Bello (94 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Ryan Yarbrough (60 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yerry De los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Topa (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Curtis Mead, Mickey Gasper, Masataka Yoshida, Anthony Seigler
Curtis Mead Second Base OPS: 0.851 (285 AB)
Mickey Gasper Designated Hitter OPS: 0.840 (133 AB)
Masataka Yoshida Designated Hitter OPS: 0.746 (263 AB)
Anthony Seigler Second Base OPS: 0.736 (148 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.2% of full strength
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9789 (Temp: 1.0087 | Wind: 0.9705)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 4.0 - NYY 3.7
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.0 - NYY 3.7
Win Probability: BOS 53.1% - NYY 46.9%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -113 / NYY +113
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 8.0: 39.1%
Under 8.0: 51.3%
BOS -1.5: 35.5%
NYY +1.5: 64.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.3 - NYY 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.3 - NYY 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BOS 57.2% - NYY 42.8% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -134 / NYY +134
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -119 -113 -1.2%
NYY ML +111 +113 -0.5%
BOS -1.5 +135 +181 -7.0%
NYY +1.5 -163 -181 +2.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -13.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -1.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | August 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Logan Gilbert Home: Max Scherzer
ERA: 3.36 ERA: 7.02
WHIP: 1.02 WHIP: 1.54
K/9: 9.39 K/9: 6.48
BB/9: 2.26 BB/9: 4.5
FIP: 3.52 FIP: 6.28
IP: 155.3 IP: 50.0
xERA: 3.69 xERA: 4.81
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Logan Gilbert)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA TOR Lg Avg
Record 64-72 67-70
R/Game 3.90 3.95 4.46
RA/Game 4.38 4.36 4.46
OPS 0.682 0.688 0.718
wOBA 0.298 0.296 0.309
ERA 4.13 3.97 4.16
FIP 3.79 3.89 4.03
WHIP 1.24 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.64 8.83 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.454 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.27 3.70 4.21
BP FIP 4.08 4.04 4.06
BP WHIP 1.36 1.32
BP K/9 8.95 8.19
BP Quality* 46.4 45.7 46.1
BP IP 421.3 274.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Brendan Donovan, Luke Raley, Jhonny Pereda
Brendan Donovan Third Base OPS: 0.780 (137 AB)
Luke Raley Outfielder OPS: 0.723 (262 AB)
Jhonny Pereda Catcher OPS: 0.684 (76 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.2% of full strength
TOR (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Luis Urías, Jesús Sánchez, Yohendrick Piñango, Ernie Clement
Luis Urías Second Base OPS: 0.803 (52 AB)
Jesús Sánchez Outfielder OPS: 0.749 (258 AB)
Yohendrick Piñango Outfielder OPS: 0.702 (169 AB)
Ernie Clement Second Base OPS: 0.692 (509 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 22%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9864 (Temp: 0.9960 | Wind: 0.9903)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 4.4 - TOR 3.3
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.4 - TOR 3.4
Win Probability: SEA 61.2% - TOR 38.8%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -158 / TOR +158
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.0: 40.1%
Under 8.0: 50.3%
SEA -1.5: 43.5%
TOR +1.5: 56.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.9 - TOR 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.9 - TOR 1.7
F5 Win Prob: SEA 69.7% - TOR 30.3% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -229 / TOR +229
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -135 -158 +3.7%
TOR ML +125 +158 -5.6%
SEA -1.5 +119 +130 -2.2%
TOR +1.5 -144 -130 -2.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -12.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -2.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | August 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Seth Lugo Home: Parker Messick
ERA: 4.61 ERA: 2.5
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 6.94 K/9: 9.06
BB/9: 2.81 BB/9: 2.38
FIP: 3.88 FIP: 3.05
IP: 150.3 IP: 155.0
xERA: 5.07 xERA: 2.91
xwOBA: 0.344 xwOBA: 0.266
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC CLE Lg Avg
Record 62-75 68-68
R/Game 4.30 4.01 4.46
RA/Game 4.83 4.10 4.46
OPS 0.718 0.683 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.297 0.309
ERA 4.63 3.75 4.16
FIP 4.48 3.77 4.03
WHIP 1.39 1.26 1.30
K/9 7.44 9.44 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.93 3.68 4.21
BP FIP 5.41 3.58 4.06
BP WHIP 1.62 1.28
BP K/9 7.50 10.01
BP Quality* 63.5 41.3 46.1
BP IP 507.3 462.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Gose (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Michael Massey, Maikel Garcia
Michael Massey Second Base OPS: 0.754 (340 AB)
Maikel Garcia Third Base OPS: 0.709 (283 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.1% of full strength
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Angel Martínez, Kyle Manzardo
Angel Martínez Outfielder OPS: 0.712 (318 AB)
Kyle Manzardo First Base OPS: 0.684 (312 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 22%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0060 (Temp: 1.0125 | Wind: 0.9936)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 3.1 - CLE 4.7
Simulated Avg: KC 3.1 - CLE 4.7
Win Probability: KC 32.8% - CLE 67.2%
Fair Moneyline: KC +205 / CLE -205
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.5: 48.9%
Under 7.5: 51.0%
KC +1.5: 50.6%
CLE -1.5: 49.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 1.5 - CLE 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.5 - CLE 2.3
F5 Win Prob: KC 34.8% - CLE 65.2% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +187 / CLE -187
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +168 +205 -4.6%
CLE ML -181 -205 +2.8%
KC +1.5 -141 -102 -7.9%
CLE -1.5 +117 +102 +3.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -3.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -1.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | August 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Glasnow Home: Framber Valdez
ERA: 3.02 ERA: 4.35
WHIP: 0.87 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 11.28 K/9: 6.91
BB/9: 2.62 BB/9: 3.48
FIP: 2.92 FIP: 3.98
IP: 44.7 IP: 144.7
xERA: 2.49 xERA: 4.49
xwOBA: 0.246 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tyler Glasnow)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD DET Lg Avg
Record 81-55 63-72
R/Game 4.88 4.41 4.46
RA/Game 3.79 3.89 4.46
OPS 0.757 0.716 0.718
wOBA 0.324 0.309 0.309
ERA 3.64 3.56 4.16
FIP 3.72 3.80 4.03
WHIP 1.16 1.22 1.30
K/9 9.29 8.21 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.613 0.557 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.03 4.18 4.21
BP FIP 3.84 4.45 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.34
BP K/9 9.80 8.26
BP Quality* 48.5 50.9 46.1
BP IP 426.3 404.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Sears (42 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Max Muncy, Dalton Rushing, Andy Pages, Ryan Ward, Will Smith
Max Muncy Third Base OPS: 0.838 (410 AB)
Dalton Rushing Catcher OPS: 0.810 (217 AB)
Andy Pages Outfielder OPS: 0.796 (493 AB)
Ryan Ward Outfielder OPS: 0.738 (55 AB)
Will Smith Catcher OPS: 0.720 (173 AB)
Run Adjustment: 87.3% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Eduardo Valencia, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson
Eduardo Valencia Designated Hitter OPS: 0.978 (76 AB)
Riley Greene Outfielder OPS: 0.816 (422 AB)
Spencer Torkelson First Base OPS: 0.715 (454 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 52%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9810 (Temp: 1.0060 | Wind: 0.9752)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 4.3 - DET 3.2
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.3 - DET 3.2
Win Probability: LAD 61.3% - DET 38.7%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -158 / DET +158
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.5: 47.3%
Under 7.5: 52.7%
LAD -1.5: 43.4%
DET +1.5: 56.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 2.3 - DET 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.3 - DET 1.5
F5 Win Prob: LAD 67.4% - DET 32.6% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -206 / DET +206
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -154 -158 +0.7%
DET ML +143 +158 -2.5%
LAD -1.5 +108 +130 -4.7%
DET +1.5 -131 -130 -0.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -5.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +0.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | August 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Robbie Ray Home: Drew Rasmussen
ERA: 3.21 ERA: 2.95
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 0.93
K/9: 7.68 K/9: 9.17
BB/9: 4.41 BB/9: 1.6
FIP: 4.59 FIP: 2.8
IP: 143.0 IP: 140.3
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 3.14
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.276
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD TB Lg Avg
Record 72-64 81-54
R/Game 4.26 4.53 4.46
RA/Game 4.18 4.13 4.46
OPS 0.702 0.733 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.314 0.309
ERA 3.94 3.79 4.16
FIP 4.05 3.95 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.15 1.30
K/9 8.20 8.22 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.509 0.541 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.75 3.42 4.21
BP FIP 2.97 3.85 4.06
BP WHIP 1.14 1.11
BP K/9 11.02 8.74
BP Quality* 34.1 41.9 46.1
BP IP 281.0 387.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Liam Hicks, Victor Mesa Jr., Jake Fraley
Liam Hicks Catcher OPS: 0.817 (415 AB)
Victor Mesa Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.735 (159 AB)
Jake Fraley Outfielder OPS: 0.690 (82 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.2 - TB 3.8
Simulated Avg: SD 3.2 - TB 3.8
Win Probability: SD 42.8% - TB 57.2%
Fair Moneyline: SD +133 / TB -133
Avg Total Runs: 6.9
Over 7.0: 41.3%
Under 7.0: 48.2%
SD +1.5: 62.3%
TB -1.5: 37.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 1.6 - TB 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.6 - TB 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SD 35.7% - TB 64.3% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +180 / TB -180
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +148 +133 +2.5%
TB ML -159 -133 -4.2%
SD +1.5 -157 -165 +1.2%
TB -1.5 +130 +165 -5.8%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -11.1%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -4.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | August 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jordan Hicks Home: Zebby Matthews
ERA: 3.83 ERA: 4.86
WHIP: 1.53 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 11.03 K/9: 7.64
BB/9: 5.63 BB/9: 2.78
FIP: 3.5 FIP: 4.71
IP: 40.0 IP: 103.7
xERA: 3.0 xERA: 4.55
xwOBA: 0.27 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Jordan Hicks)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS MIN Lg Avg
Record 72-63 64-72
R/Game 4.82 4.57 4.46
RA/Game 4.47 5.01 4.46
OPS 0.730 0.723 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.313 0.309
ERA 4.14 4.68 4.16
FIP 4.10 4.16 4.03
WHIP 1.31 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.46 8.46 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.535 0.458 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.61 4.46 4.21
BP FIP 4.59 3.90 4.06
BP WHIP 1.42 1.42
BP K/9 8.21 8.76
BP Quality* 53.7 46.8 46.1
BP IP 295.0 563.0
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sean Newcomb (40 pitches yesterday)
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Byron Buxton, Alex Jackson
Byron Buxton Outfielder OPS: 0.830 (370 AB)
Alex Jackson Catcher OPS: 0.742 (66 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0069 (Temp: 1.0224 | Wind: 0.9849)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 5.2 - MIN 4.3
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.2 - MIN 4.3
Win Probability: CWS 57.8% - MIN 42.2%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -137 / MIN +137
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.5: 56.0%
Under 8.5: 44.0%
CWS -1.5: 42.4%
MIN +1.5: 57.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 3.0 - MIN 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 3.1 - MIN 2.0
F5 Win Prob: CWS 66.3% - MIN 33.7% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -197 / MIN +197
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +106 -137 +9.3%
MIN ML -114 +137 -11.1%
CWS -1.5 +162 +136 +4.3%
MIN +1.5 -198 -136 -8.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | August 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kumar Rocker Home: Dustin May
ERA: 4.41 ERA: 4.56
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 8.31 K/9: 8.54
BB/9: 3.62 BB/9: 3.04
FIP: 4.31 FIP: 3.16
IP: 126.7 IP: 124.3
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 4.19
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Dustin May)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX MIL Lg Avg
Record 66-70 85-51
R/Game 4.02 4.99 4.46
RA/Game 4.42 3.67 4.46
OPS 0.711 0.736 0.718
wOBA 0.307 0.317 0.309
ERA 4.29 3.36 4.16
FIP 3.98 3.44 4.03
WHIP 1.31 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.66 9.71 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.457 0.637 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.56 3.39 4.21
BP FIP 4.28 3.49 4.06
BP WHIP 1.39 1.25
BP K/9 8.31 8.92
BP Quality* 48.6 44.4 46.1
BP IP 458.3 457.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: DL Hall (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 16 mph (gusts 27 mph)
Precip Chance: 19%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), strong wind in (16 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9842 (Temp: 1.0217 | Wind: 0.9632)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.6 - MIL 5.3
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.6 - MIL 5.3
Win Probability: TEX 33.9% - MIL 66.1%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +195 / MIL -195
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 51.0%
Under 8.5: 49.0%
TEX +1.5: 50.2%
MIL -1.5: 49.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.0 - MIL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.0 - MIL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: TEX 35.4% - MIL 64.6% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +183 / MIL -183
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +151 +195 -5.9%
MIL ML -162 -195 +4.2%
TEX +1.5 -149 -101 -9.6%
MIL -1.5 +123 +101 +4.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | August 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Braxton Ashcraft Home: Matthew Liberatore
ERA: 3.59 ERA: 5.44
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 9.33 K/9: 9.21
BB/9: 1.97 BB/9: 3.14
FIP: 3.44 FIP: 4.42
IP: 155.3 IP: 129.0
xERA: 3.41 xERA: 4.94
xwOBA: 0.287 xwOBA: 0.34
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT STL Lg Avg
Record 66-71 68-69
R/Game 4.85 4.42 4.46
RA/Game 4.66 4.53 4.46
OPS 0.732 0.696 0.718
wOBA 0.318 0.302 0.309
ERA 4.19 4.23 4.16
FIP 3.71 3.93 4.03
WHIP 1.31 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.31 7.89 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.518 0.490 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.62 4.39 4.21
BP FIP 3.60 4.06 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.35
BP K/9 9.66 8.03
BP Quality* 46.2 52.9 46.1
BP IP 442.7 519.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (50 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Evan Sisk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Ryan Fernandez (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Brycen Mautz (61 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Caleb Ferguson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0071 (Temp: 1.0324 | Wind: 0.9755)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 5.5 - STL 4.1
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.5 - STL 4.0
Win Probability: PIT 62.7% - STL 37.3%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -168 / STL +168
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 7.5: 65.0%
Under 7.5: 35.0%
PIT -1.5: 47.6%
STL +1.5: 52.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 3.1 - STL 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 3.1 - STL 2.1
F5 Win Prob: PIT 66.2% - STL 33.8% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -196 / STL +196
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML -118 -168 +8.6%
STL ML +110 +168 -10.3%
PIT -1.5 +136 +110 +5.2%
STL +1.5 -165 -110 -9.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +12.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -17.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01131
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ New York Mets
Regular Season | August 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ethan Pecko Home: Zac Thornton
ERA: 7.88 ERA: 2.88
WHIP: 1.88 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 5.63 K/9: 6.39
BB/9: 7.88 BB/9: 2.24
FIP: 7.72 FIP: 3.81
IP: 8.0 IP: 56.3
xERA: 8.64 xERA: 4.46
xwOBA: 0.428 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Zac Thornton)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU NYM Lg Avg
Record 68-68 61-75
R/Game 4.54 4.11 4.46
RA/Game 4.88 4.48 4.46
OPS 0.725 0.694 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.300 0.309
ERA 4.64 4.08 4.16
FIP 4.41 3.89 4.03
WHIP 1.36 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.89 9.05 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.461 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 4.04 4.21
BP FIP 4.31 4.19 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.35
BP K/9 9.07 9.35
BP Quality* 50.1 47.5 46.1
BP IP 482.3 256.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cristian Javier (78 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kodai Senga (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9820 (Temp: 1.0108 | Wind: 0.9715)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.1 - NYM 4.8
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.1 - NYM 4.8
Win Probability: HOU 43.1% - NYM 56.9%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +132 / NYM -132
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 9.0: 41.2%
Under 9.0: 49.9%
HOU +1.5: 59.6%
NYM -1.5: 40.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.2 - NYM 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.2 - NYM 2.8
F5 Win Prob: HOU 40.1% - NYM 59.9% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +149 / NYM -149
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +111 +132 -4.3%
NYM ML -119 -132 +2.6%
HOU +1.5 -194 -148 -6.4%
NYM -1.5 +159 +148 +1.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -11.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -2.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics
Regular Season | August 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chris Bassitt Home: Jeffrey Springs
ERA: 4.74 ERA: 6.08
WHIP: 1.55 WHIP: 1.5
K/9: 6.2 K/9: 7.0
BB/9: 3.16 BB/9: 3.73
FIP: 4.18 FIP: 6.08
IP: 74.0 IP: 118.3
xERA: 4.94 xERA: 4.94
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.34
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Chris Bassitt)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL ATH Lg Avg
Record 67-69 53-83
R/Game 4.54 4.35 4.46
RA/Game 4.70 5.73 4.46
OPS 0.715 0.720 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.310 0.309
ERA 4.19 5.41 4.16
FIP 3.97 4.77 4.03
WHIP 1.34 1.50 1.30
K/9 8.04 8.54 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.485 0.376 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.19 6.03 4.21
BP FIP 3.74 4.76 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.62
BP K/9 8.75 9.06
BP Quality* 51.8 59.0 46.1
BP IP 449.3 501.7
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9742 (Temp: 0.9966 | Wind: 0.9775)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 6.0 - ATH 4.9
Simulated Avg: BAL 5.9 - ATH 5.0
Win Probability: BAL 58.4% - ATH 41.6%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -140 / ATH +140
Avg Total Runs: 10.9
Over 10.0: 50.3%
Under 10.0: 41.9%
BAL -1.5: 44.4%
ATH +1.5: 55.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 3.4 - ATH 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 3.4 - ATH 2.7
F5 Win Prob: BAL 59.9% - ATH 40.1% (Tie: 13.8%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -150 / ATH +150
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML -142 -140 -0.3%
ATH ML +132 +140 -1.5%
BAL -1.5 +102 +125 -5.1%
ATH +1.5 -122 -125 +0.6%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -2.1%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -10.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zack Wheeler Home: Yusei Kikuchi
ERA: 3.4 ERA: 6.25
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.58
K/9: 10.71 K/9: 9.25
BB/9: 2.75 BB/9: 3.75
FIP: 3.62 FIP: 4.1
IP: 124.3 IP: 36.0
xERA: 3.03 xERA: 5.45
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI LAA Lg Avg
Record 76-60 52-84
R/Game 4.54 4.07 4.46
RA/Game 4.34 4.65 4.46
OPS 0.714 0.681 0.718
wOBA 0.307 0.295 0.309
ERA 4.07 4.27 4.16
FIP 3.64 4.01 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.35 1.30
K/9 9.99 9.09 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.520 0.439 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.13 4.58 4.21
BP FIP 3.54 4.29 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.40
BP K/9 10.04 9.08
BP Quality* 45.9 51.7 46.1
BP IP 461.7 358.0
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Jonathan Bowlan (B2B, 25 pitches)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trevor Martin (49 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9958 (Temp: 1.0237 | Wind: 0.9727)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 5.3 - LAA 3.7
Simulated Avg: PHI 5.3 - LAA 3.7
Win Probability: PHI 65.2% - LAA 34.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -187 / LAA +187
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 7.5: 60.5%
Under 7.5: 39.5%
PHI -1.5: 49.5%
LAA +1.5: 50.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 3.1 - LAA 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 3.1 - LAA 1.9
F5 Win Prob: PHI 69.9% - LAA 30.1% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -232 / LAA +232
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -170 -187 +2.2%
LAA ML +158 +187 -4.0%
PHI -1.5 -103 +102 -1.2%
LAA +1.5 -117 -102 -3.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +8.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -12.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.1%
Fair ML: -153 | Kelly: 4.25%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01132
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 30, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chase Burns Home: Shota Imanaga
ERA: 2.77 ERA: 3.78
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 10.57 K/9: 8.92
BB/9: 3.16 BB/9: 2.11
FIP: 3.11 FIP: 4.5
IP: 139.7 IP: 145.3
xERA: 3.17 xERA: 3.83
xwOBA: 0.277 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN CHC Lg Avg
Record 64-72 77-59
R/Game 4.14 5.29 4.46
RA/Game 4.95 4.35 4.46
OPS 0.701 0.767 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.330 0.309
ERA 4.67 4.12 4.16
FIP 4.57 4.57 4.03
WHIP 1.43 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.13 7.74 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.419 0.589 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.78 4.49 4.21
BP FIP 4.68 4.56 4.06
BP WHIP 1.46 1.36
BP K/9 8.63 8.40
BP Quality* 56.4 49.4 46.1
BP IP 506.0 518.7
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tony Santillan (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (38 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 26%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9814 (Temp: 1.0026 | Wind: 0.9789)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 4.2 - CHC 5.2
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.2 - CHC 5.1
Win Probability: CIN 41.0% - CHC 59.0%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +144 / CHC -144
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.0: 45.8%
Under 9.0: 45.4%
CIN +1.5: 56.8%
CHC -1.5: 43.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 2.3 - CHC 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.3 - CHC 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CIN 50.8% - CHC 49.2% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN -103 / CHC +103
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +142 +144 -0.3%
CHC ML -153 -144 -1.5%
CIN +1.5 -157 -132 -4.3%
CHC -1.5 +130 +132 -0.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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