2026-08-31
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-08-31
Games: 12 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | August 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Anthony Molina Home: Bryce Elder
ERA: 2.89 ERA: 3.95
WHIP: 0.96 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 2.89 K/9: 7.39
BB/9: 1.93 BB/9: 2.88
FIP: 4.5 FIP: 4.41
IP: 9.3 IP: 143.7
xERA: 5.45 xERA: 3.99
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF ATL Lg Avg
Record 56-81 82-55
R/Game 4.09 4.64 4.47
RA/Game 4.63 3.79 4.47
OPS 0.712 0.724 0.718
wOBA 0.304 0.311 0.309
ERA 4.35 3.55 4.16
FIP 4.03 3.91 4.03
WHIP 1.36 1.24 1.30
K/9 7.69 8.59 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.443 0.592 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.76 3.13 4.21
BP FIP 4.29 3.29 4.06
BP WHIP 1.49 1.17
BP K/9 7.19 9.33
BP Quality* 52.1 41.8 46.1
BP IP 366.7 356.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0345 (Temp: 1.0290 | Wind: 1.0054)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 4.1 - ATL 5.2
Simulated Avg: SF 4.1 - ATL 5.2
Win Probability: SF 38.8% - ATL 61.3%
Fair Moneyline: SF +158 / ATL -158
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.0: 45.3%
Under 9.0: 45.9%
SF +1.5: 54.7%
ATL -1.5: 45.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 2.4 - ATL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.4 - ATL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: SF 44.6% - ATL 55.4% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +124 / ATL -124
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +179 +158 +2.9%
ATL ML -193 -158 -4.6%
SF +1.5 -131 -121 -2.0%
ATL -1.5 +108 +121 -2.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -7.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -6.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | August 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael King Home: Brady Singer
ERA: 3.23 ERA: 4.72
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 7.79 K/9: 7.34
BB/9: 3.46 BB/9: 2.95
FIP: 4.02 FIP: 4.91
IP: 156.0 IP: 137.3
xERA: 4.28 xERA: 5.1
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.345
Pitcher Edge: SD (Michael King)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD CIN Lg Avg
Record 72-65 65-72
R/Game 4.26 4.16 4.47
RA/Game 4.18 4.95 4.47
OPS 0.699 0.703 0.718
wOBA 0.302 0.304 0.309
ERA 3.94 4.67 4.16
FIP 4.06 4.57 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.42 1.30
K/9 8.20 8.14 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.508 0.421 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.82 4.79 4.21
BP FIP 2.99 4.69 4.06
BP WHIP 1.15 1.46
BP K/9 11.08 8.61
BP Quality* 42.0 58.0 46.1
BP IP 284.3 509.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Yuki Matsui (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: David Morgan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Moll (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0169 (Temp: 1.0298 | Wind: 0.9874)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 5.5 - CIN 4.3
Simulated Avg: SD 5.5 - CIN 4.3
Win Probability: SD 60.7% - CIN 39.3%
Fair Moneyline: SD -154 / CIN +154
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 49.9%
Under 9.0: 41.5%
SD -1.5: 46.2%
CIN +1.5: 53.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 3.0 - CIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 3.0 - CIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SD 59.5% - CIN 40.5% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SD -147 / CIN +147
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML -141 -154 +2.2%
CIN ML +131 +154 -4.0%
SD -1.5 +108 +117 -1.9%
CIN +1.5 -131 -117 -2.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -2.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | August 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Robert Stock Home: Ian Seymour
ERA: 7.4 ERA: 4.21
WHIP: 1.94 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 9.15 K/9: 10.77
BB/9: 5.66 BB/9: 2.69
FIP: 4.21 FIP: 3.91
IP: 20.7 IP: 107.0
xERA: 4.9 xERA: 3.59
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM TB Lg Avg
Record 61-76 82-54
R/Game 4.10 4.53 4.47
RA/Game 4.49 4.13 4.47
OPS 0.695 0.733 0.718
wOBA 0.300 0.314 0.309
ERA 4.08 3.77 4.16
FIP 3.90 3.93 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.15 1.30
K/9 9.05 8.23 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.459 0.542 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.12 3.38 4.21
BP FIP 4.22 3.83 4.06
BP WHIP 1.35 1.11
BP K/9 9.37 8.76
BP Quality* 49.4 44.7 46.1
BP IP 262.3 391.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jonathan Pintaro (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kodai Senga (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Manuel Rodríguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.6 - TB 5.3
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.6 - TB 5.3
Win Probability: NYM 33.7% - TB 66.3%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +197 / TB -197
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.0: 51.5%
Under 8.0: 39.3%
NYM +1.5: 49.7%
TB -1.5: 50.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.0 - TB 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.0 - TB 3.2
F5 Win Prob: NYM 32.2% - TB 67.8% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +211 / TB -211
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +157 +197 -5.2%
TB ML -169 -197 +3.5%
NYM +1.5 -149 +101 -10.2%
TB -1.5 +123 -101 +5.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | August 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: George Kirby Home: Payton Tolle
ERA: 4.02 ERA: 3.09
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 7.68 K/9: 10.13
BB/9: 2.07 BB/9: 2.51
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 3.14
IP: 147.7 IP: 125.3
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 2.69
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.256
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA BOS Lg Avg
Record 64-73 74-63
R/Game 3.87 4.45 4.47
RA/Game 4.39 3.83 4.47
OPS 0.679 0.726 0.718
wOBA 0.296 0.312 0.309
ERA 4.16 3.57 4.16
FIP 3.81 3.57 4.03
WHIP 1.24 1.23 1.30
K/9 8.62 8.64 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.442 0.567 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 3.21 4.21
BP FIP 4.12 3.35 4.06
BP WHIP 1.37 1.23
BP K/9 8.91 9.26
BP Quality* 48.3 44.4 46.1
BP IP 424.3 370.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Jovani Morán (B2B, 40 pitches)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0255 (Temp: 1.0039 | Wind: 1.0215)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.3 - BOS 4.7
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.4 - BOS 4.7
Win Probability: SEA 35.9% - BOS 64.1%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +179 / BOS -179
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 52.2%
Under 7.5: 47.8%
SEA +1.5: 53.3%
BOS -1.5: 46.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 1.6 - BOS 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.6 - BOS 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SEA 34.7% - BOS 65.3% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +188 / BOS -188
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML +151 +179 -4.0%
BOS ML -162 -179 +2.3%
SEA +1.5 -155 -114 -7.5%
BOS -1.5 +129 +114 +3.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -0.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -4.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | August 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Gusto Home: Will Dion
ERA: 3.98 ERA: 3.67
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 7.53 K/9: 10.75
BB/9: 2.56 BB/9: 2.36
FIP: 3.92 FIP: 3.77
IP: 63.3 IP: 34.3
xERA: 4.49 xERA: 3.14
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.276
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA WSH Lg Avg
Record 69-68 65-74
R/Game 4.34 5.18 4.47
RA/Game 4.23 5.06 4.47
OPS 0.723 0.754 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.323 0.309
ERA 3.90 4.67 4.16
FIP 3.84 4.58 4.03
WHIP 1.25 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.34 7.88 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.510 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.45 5.89 4.21
BP FIP 3.85 5.06 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.59
BP K/9 8.89 8.73
BP Quality* 47.2 61.2 46.1
BP IP 447.3 460.0
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Max Kranick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tom Cosgrove (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0316 (Temp: 1.0222 | Wind: 1.0092)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 4.5 - WSH 5.4
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.5 - WSH 5.4
Win Probability: MIA 42.0% - WSH 58.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +138 / WSH -138
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.5: 58.8%
Under 8.5: 41.2%
MIA -1.5: 27.9%
WSH +1.5: 72.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 2.0 - WSH 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.0 - WSH 2.9
F5 Win Prob: MIA 35.4% - WSH 64.6% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +183 / WSH -183
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML -109 +138 -10.1%
WSH ML +102 -138 +8.4%
MIA -1.5 +138 +259 -14.1%
WSH +1.5 -167 -259 +9.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +6.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -11.2%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line) [-167]
Model: 72.1% | Market: 62.5% | Edge: 9.6%
Fair ML: -259 | Kelly: 6.39%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01133
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | August 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jackson Jobe Home: Taj Bradley
ERA: 3.93 ERA: 3.97
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 7.36 K/9: 10.32
BB/9: 3.93 BB/9: 3.85
FIP: 4.19 FIP: 3.85
IP: 18.3 IP: 147.3
xERA: 5.67 xERA: 3.85
xwOBA: 0.361 xwOBA: 0.304
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Taj Bradley)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET MIN Lg Avg
Record 63-73 65-72
R/Game 4.38 4.57 4.47
RA/Game 3.90 4.98 4.47
OPS 0.713 0.723 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.313 0.309
ERA 3.58 4.65 4.16
FIP 3.79 4.14 4.03
WHIP 1.22 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.22 8.44 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.553 0.461 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.22 4.45 4.21
BP FIP 4.43 3.90 4.06
BP WHIP 1.34 1.42
BP K/9 8.29 8.75
BP Quality* 52.4 46.8 46.1
BP IP 407.3 563.7
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Waguespack (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0205 (Temp: 1.0212 | Wind: 0.9994)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 4.3 - MIN 4.8
Simulated Avg: DET 4.3 - MIN 4.8
Win Probability: DET 45.2% - MIN 54.8%
Fair Moneyline: DET +121 / MIN -121
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 52.2%
Under 8.5: 47.8%
DET +1.5: 61.5%
MIN -1.5: 38.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.3 - MIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.3 - MIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: DET 48.7% - MIN 51.3% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +105 / MIN -105
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +108 +121 -2.9%
MIN ML -116 -121 +1.1%
DET +1.5 -198 -159 -5.0%
MIN -1.5 +162 +159 +0.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | August 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Harrison Home: Clay Holmes
ERA: 2.79 ERA: 2.26
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 11.06 K/9: 6.54
BB/9: 2.35 BB/9: 2.97
FIP: 3.19 FIP: 3.32
IP: 103.3 IP: 75.7
xERA: 3.24 xERA: 3.96
xwOBA: 0.28 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL CHC Lg Avg
Record 85-52 77-60
R/Game 4.99 5.29 4.47
RA/Game 3.69 4.36 4.47
OPS 0.735 0.767 0.718
wOBA 0.317 0.330 0.309
ERA 3.37 4.14 4.16
FIP 3.45 4.59 4.03
WHIP 1.16 1.26 1.30
K/9 9.69 7.77 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.634 0.587 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.37 4.49 4.21
BP FIP 3.50 4.55 4.06
BP WHIP 1.25 1.36
BP K/9 8.91 8.44
BP Quality* 42.9 52.3 46.1
BP IP 461.7 521.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bryse Wilson (42 pitches yesterday)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Civale (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9940 (Temp: 1.0174 | Wind: 0.9770)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 4.7 - CHC 4.6
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.7 - CHC 4.6
Win Probability: MIL 50.8% - CHC 49.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -103 / CHC +103
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.5: 45.0%
Under 9.5: 55.0%
MIL -1.5: 35.5%
CHC +1.5: 64.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.2 - CHC 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.2 - CHC 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIL 49.1% - CHC 50.8% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +103 / CHC -103
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -101 -103 +0.6%
CHC ML -106 +103 -2.3%
MIL -1.5 +145 +182 -5.3%
CHC +1.5 -176 -182 +0.8%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -7.4%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +2.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | August 31, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gage Jump Home: Jacob deGrom
ERA: 4.69 ERA: 4.21
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 9.88 K/9: 10.98
BB/9: 4.28 BB/9: 2.55
FIP: 3.65 FIP: 3.21
IP: 88.3 IP: 130.3
xERA: 4.25 xERA: 3.67
xwOBA: 0.318 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Jacob deGrom)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH TEX Lg Avg
Record 53-84 67-70
R/Game 4.35 4.04 4.47
RA/Game 5.74 4.42 4.47
OPS 0.720 0.713 0.718
wOBA 0.310 0.308 0.309
ERA 5.43 4.29 4.16
FIP 4.77 3.98 4.03
WHIP 1.50 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.58 8.67 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.375 0.460 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.01 4.56 4.21
BP FIP 4.73 4.30 4.06
BP WHIP 1.62 1.39
BP K/9 9.11 8.29
BP Quality* 63.3 54.7 46.1
BP IP 505.0 462.3
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Kade Morris (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brady Basso (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Scott Blewett (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Jakob Junis (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 95°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (95°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0199 (Temp: 1.0347 | Wind: 0.9858)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.6 - TEX 5.1
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.6 - TEX 5.1
Win Probability: ATH 45.4% - TEX 54.6%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +120 / TEX -120
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 7.5: 66.0%
Under 7.5: 34.0%
ATH +1.5: 60.9%
TEX -1.5: 39.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.2 - TEX 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.3 - TEX 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ATH 47.2% - TEX 52.8% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +112 / TEX -112
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +195 +120 +11.5%
TEX ML -211 -120 -13.3%
ATH +1.5 -122 -156 +5.9%
TEX -1.5 +101 +156 -10.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +13.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -18.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01134
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | August 31, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Anthony Kay Home: Peter Lambert
ERA: 4.09 ERA: 3.66
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 7.36 K/9: 8.79
BB/9: 3.2 BB/9: 3.59
FIP: 4.3 FIP: 3.66
IP: 132.0 IP: 128.0
xERA: 4.94 xERA: 3.54
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.292
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Peter Lambert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS HOU Lg Avg
Record 72-64 69-68
R/Game 4.79 4.55 4.47
RA/Game 4.47 4.87 4.47
OPS 0.728 0.726 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.309 0.309
ERA 4.15 4.62 4.16
FIP 4.10 4.42 4.03
WHIP 1.31 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.43 8.88 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.532 0.470 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.63 4.23 4.21
BP FIP 4.60 4.25 4.06
BP WHIP 1.42 1.29
BP K/9 8.08 9.11
BP Quality* 55.4 50.9 46.1
BP IP 303.0 478.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Gilbert (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: José Urquidy (67 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0106 (Temp: 1.0232 | Wind: 0.9876)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 4.6 - HOU 5.3
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.6 - HOU 5.3
Win Probability: CWS 43.2% - HOU 56.8%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +131 / HOU -131
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.5: 58.9%
Under 8.5: 41.1%
CWS +1.5: 58.5%
HOU -1.5: 41.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.3 - HOU 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.3 - HOU 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CWS 42.8% - HOU 57.2% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +134 / HOU -134
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +119 +131 -2.5%
HOU ML -127 -131 +0.8%
CWS +1.5 -186 -141 -6.5%
HOU -1.5 +153 +141 +1.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +6.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -11.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | August 31, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Tanner Gordon
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL COL Lg Avg
Record 68-69 52-85
R/Game 4.57 4.70 4.47
RA/Game 4.70 5.74 4.47
OPS 0.716 0.737 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.318 0.309
ERA 4.19 5.49 4.16
FIP 3.97 4.70 4.03
WHIP 1.34 1.52 1.30
K/9 8.04 6.96 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.487 0.410 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.16 4.74 4.21
BP FIP 3.72 4.31 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.53
BP K/9 8.75 7.66
BP Quality* 51.6 53.7 46.1
BP IP 452.7 273.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Yennier Cano (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Feltner (71 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 25%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0169 (Temp: 1.0006 | Wind: 1.0163)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 6.0 - COL 5.9
Simulated Avg: BAL 6.0 - COL 5.9
Win Probability: BAL 50.8% - COL 49.2%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -103 / COL +103
Avg Total Runs: 11.9
Over 11.0: 50.2%
Under 11.0: 42.6%
BAL -1.5: 38.0%
COL +1.5: 62.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 3.4 - COL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 3.4 - COL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: BAL 53.4% - COL 46.6% (Tie: 13.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -115 / COL +115
F5 Avg Total: 6.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML -130 -103 -5.7%
COL ML +121 +103 +3.9%
BAL -1.5 +108 +163 -10.1%
COL +1.5 -131 -163 +5.3%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -2.2%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -9.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | August 31, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Elmer Rodríguez Home: Walbert Ureña
ERA: 4.7 ERA: 2.94
WHIP: 1.52 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 6.26 K/9: 8.66
BB/9: 5.09 BB/9: 4.95
FIP: 4.53 FIP: 3.61
IP: 23.0 IP: 116.3
xERA: 5.45 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Walbert Ureña)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY LAA Lg Avg
Record 78-59 52-85
R/Game 4.54 4.05 4.47
RA/Game 3.69 4.65 4.47
OPS 0.720 0.680 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.295 0.309
ERA 3.21 4.28 4.16
FIP 3.55 4.02 4.03
WHIP 1.17 1.35 1.30
K/9 9.00 9.08 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.594 0.437 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.98 4.63 4.21
BP FIP 3.79 4.30 4.06
BP WHIP 1.19 1.41
BP K/9 8.30 9.08
BP Quality* 44.1 53.5 46.1
BP IP 447.0 360.0
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Sammy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9870 (Temp: 1.0041 | Wind: 0.9830)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.2 - LAA 3.8
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.2 - LAA 3.9
Win Probability: NYY 53.5% - LAA 46.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -115 / LAA +115
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 43.2%
Under 8.0: 47.3%
NYY -1.5: 37.1%
LAA +1.5: 62.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.0 - LAA 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.0 - LAA 2.1
F5 Win Prob: NYY 49.0% - LAA 51.0% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY +104 / LAA -104
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -119 -115 -0.8%
LAA ML +111 +115 -0.9%
NYY -1.5 +130 +170 -6.4%
LAA +1.5 -157 -170 +1.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | August 31, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Aaron Nola Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI ARI Lg Avg
Record 77-60 73-65
R/Game 4.54 4.53 4.47
RA/Game 4.32 4.49 4.47
OPS 0.716 0.714 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.307 0.309
ERA 4.05 4.18 4.16
FIP 3.63 4.26 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.98 6.95 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.523 0.504 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.13 3.64 4.21
BP FIP 3.53 3.65 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.22
BP K/9 10.03 7.58
BP Quality* 47.3 46.0 46.1
BP IP 464.7 434.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex McFarlane (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Gerardo Carrillo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0225 (Temp: 1.0306 | Wind: 0.9921)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.6 - ARI 5.2
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.6 - ARI 5.2
Win Probability: PHI 44.8% - ARI 55.2%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +123 / ARI -123
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.5: 58.1%
Under 8.5: 41.9%
PHI -1.5: 30.6%
ARI +1.5: 69.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.6 - ARI 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.6 - ARI 2.9
F5 Win Prob: PHI 44.8% - ARI 55.2% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +123 / ARI -123
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -118 +123 -9.4%
ARI ML +110 -123 +7.6%
PHI -1.5 +136 +227 -11.8%
ARI +1.5 -164 -227 +7.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +5.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -10.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (Run Line) [-164]
Model: 69.4% | Market: 62.1% | Edge: 7.3%
Fair ML: -227 | Kelly: 4.83%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01135