2026-09-01
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-01
Games: 15 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | September 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Randy Vásquez Home: Nick Lodolo
ERA: 4.02 ERA: 5.24
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.54
K/9: 5.56 K/9: 7.29
BB/9: 2.49 BB/9: 3.76
FIP: 4.28 FIP: 5.2
IP: 123.0 IP: 79.0
xERA: 5.67 xERA: 6.58
xwOBA: 0.361 xwOBA: 0.384
Pitcher Edge: SD (Randy Vásquez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD CIN Lg Avg
Record 73-65 65-73
R/Game 4.26 4.13 4.47
RA/Game 4.15 4.95 4.47
OPS 0.701 0.702 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.303 0.309
ERA 3.91 4.67 4.16
FIP 4.04 4.54 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.43 1.30
K/9 8.22 8.15 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.418 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.82 4.76 4.22
BP FIP 2.99 4.65 4.06
BP WHIP 1.15 1.45
BP K/9 11.08 8.61
BP Quality* 40.5 56.1 46.1
BP IP 284.3 514.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Kyle Hart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tony Santillan (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0203 (Temp: 1.0326 | Wind: 0.9882)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 6.0 - CIN 4.7
Simulated Avg: SD 6.0 - CIN 4.7
Win Probability: SD 60.4% - CIN 39.6%
Fair Moneyline: SD -152 / CIN +152
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 9.5: 56.7%
Under 9.5: 43.3%
SD -1.5: 46.4%
CIN +1.5: 53.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 3.5 - CIN 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 3.5 - CIN 2.9
F5 Win Prob: SD 58.8% - CIN 41.2% (Tie: 13.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SD -143 / CIN +143
F5 Avg Total: 6.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML -134 -152 +3.1%
CIN ML +125 +152 -4.8%
SD -1.5 +113 +115 -0.5%
CIN +1.5 -136 -115 -4.0%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +4.3%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -9.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | September 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Logan Webb Home: Paul Skenes
ERA: 3.72 ERA: 3.79
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 7.19 K/9: 10.86
BB/9: 2.19 BB/9: 2.54
FIP: 3.2 FIP: 2.79
IP: 147.7 IP: 145.0
xERA: 3.91 xERA: 3.12
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF PIT Lg Avg
Record 57-81 67-71
R/Game 4.11 4.85 4.47
RA/Game 4.62 4.66 4.47
OPS 0.713 0.733 0.718
wOBA 0.305 0.318 0.309
ERA 4.34 4.19 4.16
FIP 4.02 3.70 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.70 9.28 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.518 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.72 3.61 4.22
BP FIP 4.25 3.58 4.06
BP WHIP 1.48 1.31
BP K/9 7.26 9.64
BP Quality* 54.7 44.6 46.1
BP IP 375.7 443.3
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jason Foley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0022 (Temp: 1.0237 | Wind: 0.9790)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.3 - PIT 4.8
Simulated Avg: SF 3.3 - PIT 4.9
Win Probability: SF 34.2% - PIT 65.8%
Fair Moneyline: SF +192 / PIT -192
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 7.5: 53.8%
Under 7.5: 46.2%
SF +1.5: 51.6%
PIT -1.5: 48.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.7 - PIT 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.7 - PIT 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SF 38.1% - PIT 61.9% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +162 / PIT -162
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +147 +192 -6.3%
PIT ML -158 -192 +4.6%
SF +1.5 -164 -107 -10.5%
PIT -1.5 +136 +107 +6.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +1.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -6.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | September 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Manaea Home: Freddy Peralta
ERA: 4.55 ERA: 5.11
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 8.8 K/9: 8.49
BB/9: 2.93 BB/9: 3.45
FIP: 4.24 FIP: 4.39
IP: 122.7 IP: 141.0
xERA: 4.81 xERA: 3.97
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM TB Lg Avg
Record 62-76 82-55
R/Game 4.09 4.51 4.47
RA/Game 4.47 4.12 4.47
OPS 0.694 0.732 0.718
wOBA 0.300 0.313 0.309
ERA 4.07 3.76 4.16
FIP 3.89 3.92 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.15 1.30
K/9 9.03 8.26 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.460 0.541 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 3.37 4.22
BP FIP 4.22 3.83 4.06
BP WHIP 1.36 1.11
BP K/9 9.31 8.76
BP Quality* 51.1 44.6 46.1
BP IP 265.0 392.3
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Daniel Duarte (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Devenski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kodai Senga (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.9 - TB 4.8
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.9 - TB 4.8
Win Probability: NYM 40.6% - TB 59.4%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +147 / TB -147
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.5: 59.0%
Under 7.5: 41.0%
NYM +1.5: 57.3%
TB -1.5: 42.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.3 - TB 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.3 - TB 2.6
F5 Win Prob: NYM 44.5% - TB 55.5% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +124 / TB -124
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +116 +147 -5.7%
TB ML -124 -147 +4.1%
NYM +1.5 -198 -134 -9.2%
TB -1.5 +162 +134 +4.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +6.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -11.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | September 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Spencer Miles Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 2.92 ERA: 3.98
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 8.32 K/9: 11.77
BB/9: 2.27 BB/9: 2.83
FIP: 2.79 FIP: 3.68
IP: 83.3 IP: 156.0
xERA: 2.98 xERA: 4.0
xwOBA: 0.269 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Spencer Miles)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR CLE Lg Avg
Record 68-70 69-68
R/Game 3.97 4.07 4.47
RA/Game 4.33 4.08 4.47
OPS 0.689 0.686 0.718
wOBA 0.297 0.298 0.309
ERA 3.94 3.73 4.16
FIP 3.86 3.76 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.87 9.43 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.460 0.498 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.70 3.66 4.22
BP FIP 4.04 3.57 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.28
BP K/9 8.19 10.02
BP Quality* 44.2 41.2 46.1
BP IP 274.7 465.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0152 (Temp: 1.0252 | Wind: 0.9903)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.5 - CLE 3.3
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.5 - CLE 3.3
Win Probability: TOR 52.4% - CLE 47.6%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -110 / CLE +110
Avg Total Runs: 6.8
Over 8.0: 29.4%
Under 8.0: 60.9%
TOR +1.5: 71.5%
CLE -1.5: 28.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.0 - CLE 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.0 - CLE 1.6
F5 Win Prob: TOR 59.1% - CLE 40.9% (Tie: 20.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -144 / CLE +144
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +163 -110 +14.4%
CLE ML -175 +110 -16.1%
TOR +1.5 -144 -251 +12.5%
CLE -1.5 +119 +251 -17.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -23.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +8.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -144 | Edge: 12.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01136
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | September 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bryan Woo Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA BOS Lg Avg
Record 64-74 75-63
R/Game 3.90 4.48 4.47
RA/Game 4.43 3.86 4.47
OPS 0.682 0.728 0.718
wOBA 0.297 0.313 0.309
ERA 4.18 3.60 4.16
FIP 3.83 3.58 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.23 1.30
K/9 8.60 8.65 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.442 0.567 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.35 3.27 4.22
BP FIP 4.11 3.36 4.06
BP WHIP 1.37 1.23
BP K/9 8.90 9.27
BP Quality* 51.4 41.6 46.1
BP IP 428.7 374.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyron Guerrero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jovani Morán (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 54%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0238 (Temp: 0.9896 | Wind: 1.0346)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 3.9 - BOS 4.8
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.0 - BOS 4.8
Win Probability: SEA 41.3% - BOS 58.7%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +142 / BOS -142
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.0: 59.0%
Under 7.0: 31.9%
SEA -1.5: 26.4%
BOS +1.5: 73.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.3 - BOS 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.3 - BOS 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SEA 48.5% - BOS 51.4% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +106 / BOS -106
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML +108 +142 -6.7%
BOS ML -116 -142 +4.9%
SEA -1.5 +171 +279 -10.5%
BOS +1.5 -210 -279 +5.9%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +6.6%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -20.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | September 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: AJ Smith-Shawver Home: Jake Irvin
ERA: 5.93 ERA: 5.62
WHIP: 1.61 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 6.59 K/9: 9.04
BB/9: 5.27 BB/9: 4.3
FIP: 4.34 FIP: 4.75
IP: 13.7 IP: 81.7
xERA: 4.94 xERA: 5.31
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.351
Pitcher Edge: ATL (AJ Smith-Shawver)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL WSH Lg Avg
Record 82-56 66-74
R/Game 4.63 5.19 4.47
RA/Game 3.81 5.05 4.47
OPS 0.723 0.756 0.718
wOBA 0.311 0.323 0.309
ERA 3.58 4.66 4.16
FIP 3.93 4.57 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.58 7.87 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.588 0.512 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.15 5.87 4.22
BP FIP 3.31 5.02 4.06
BP WHIP 1.16 1.59
BP K/9 9.33 8.75
BP Quality* 40.4 64.0 46.1
BP IP 359.7 466.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ray Kerr (34 pitches yesterday)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Luis Perales (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Erik Tolman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Matt Waldron (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tom Cosgrove (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0192 (Temp: 1.0322 | Wind: 0.9874)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 5.9 - WSH 5.3
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.9 - WSH 5.3
Win Probability: ATL 55.1% - WSH 44.9%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -123 / WSH +123
Avg Total Runs: 11.2
Over 10.0: 52.7%
Under 10.0: 39.5%
ATL -1.5: 41.5%
WSH +1.5: 58.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 3.2 - WSH 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 3.2 - WSH 3.2
F5 Win Prob: ATL 50.1% - WSH 49.9% (Tie: 13.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -101 / WSH +101
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -170 -123 -7.8%
WSH ML +158 +123 +6.1%
ATL -1.5 -110 +141 -10.9%
WSH +1.5 -109 -141 +6.3%
O 10.0 -110 N/A +0.3%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -12.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | September 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Troy Melton Home: Andrew Morris
ERA: 1.86 ERA: 3.82
WHIP: 1.01 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 7.42 K/9: 8.34
BB/9: 2.6 BB/9: 3.11
FIP: 3.66 FIP: 3.1
IP: 97.0 IP: 63.7
xERA: 3.41 xERA: 3.05
xwOBA: 0.287 xwOBA: 0.272
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Andrew Morris)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET MIN Lg Avg
Record 63-74 66-72
R/Game 4.36 4.62 4.47
RA/Game 3.96 4.95 4.47
OPS 0.711 0.727 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.314 0.309
ERA 3.63 4.63 4.16
FIP 3.84 4.13 4.04
WHIP 1.23 1.38 1.30
K/9 8.20 8.45 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.544 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.32 4.44 4.22
BP FIP 4.52 3.89 4.06
BP WHIP 1.35 1.42
BP K/9 8.25 8.75
BP Quality* 51.8 46.7 46.1
BP IP 410.3 565.7
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yilber Díaz (43 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Zach McKinstry (31 pitches yesterday)
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0094 (Temp: 1.0141 | Wind: 0.9954)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 3.8 - MIN 4.3
Simulated Avg: DET 3.8 - MIN 4.3
Win Probability: DET 44.5% - MIN 55.5%
Fair Moneyline: DET +125 / MIN -125
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 43.9%
Under 8.5: 56.1%
DET -1.5: 28.3%
MIN +1.5: 71.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 1.9 - MIN 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 1.9 - MIN 2.0
F5 Win Prob: DET 48.2% - MIN 51.8% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +107 / MIN -107
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +100 +125 -5.5%
MIN ML -107 -125 +3.8%
DET -1.5 +149 +254 -11.9%
MIN +1.5 -181 -254 +7.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | September 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Phillips Home: Randy Dobnak
ERA: 3.59 ERA: 1.92
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 7.35 K/9: 5.92
BB/9: 3.84 BB/9: 3.66
FIP: 4.48 FIP: 3.76
IP: 105.3 IP: 51.7
xERA: 4.74 xERA: 4.56
xwOBA: 0.334 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: KC (Randy Dobnak)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA KC Lg Avg
Record 69-69 62-76
R/Game 4.33 4.28 4.47
RA/Game 4.24 4.88 4.47
OPS 0.722 0.717 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.308 0.309
ERA 3.92 4.68 4.16
FIP 3.85 4.49 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.36 7.43 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.509 0.440 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.51 5.91 4.22
BP FIP 3.88 5.39 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.62
BP K/9 8.92 7.49
BP Quality* 50.6 60.4 46.1
BP IP 451.0 511.7
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Ralston (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0097 (Temp: 1.0361 | Wind: 0.9745)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.4 - KC 4.7
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.4 - KC 4.7
Win Probability: MIA 47.6% - KC 52.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +110 / KC -110
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 9.5: 43.1%
Under 9.5: 56.9%
MIA -1.5: 32.2%
KC +1.5: 67.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.0 - KC 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.0 - KC 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIA 42.0% - KC 58.0% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +138 / KC -138
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +106 +110 -1.0%
KC ML -114 -110 -0.9%
MIA -1.5 +158 +210 -6.5%
KC +1.5 -192 -210 +2.0%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -9.3%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +4.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | September 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Robert Gasser Home: Matthew Boyd
ERA: 4.59 ERA: 3.99
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 8.53 K/9: 7.05
BB/9: 2.73 BB/9: 2.78
FIP: 4.17 FIP: 4.47
IP: 82.3 IP: 97.0
xERA: 4.22 xERA: 4.97
xwOBA: 0.317 xwOBA: 0.341
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL CHC Lg Avg
Record 85-53 78-60
R/Game 4.97 5.38 4.47
RA/Game 3.79 4.36 4.47
OPS 0.736 0.775 0.718
wOBA 0.317 0.333 0.309
ERA 3.47 4.14 4.16
FIP 3.56 4.57 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.25 1.30
K/9 9.65 7.79 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.622 0.595 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.51 4.51 4.22
BP FIP 3.63 4.58 4.06
BP WHIP 1.27 1.36
BP K/9 8.85 8.42
BP Quality* 44.1 52.5 46.1
BP IP 464.7 522.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Andrew Vaughn (55 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Rea (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0071 (Temp: 1.0232 | Wind: 0.9843)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.7 - CHC 5.8
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.7 - CHC 5.8
Win Probability: MIL 49.1% - CHC 50.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIL +104 / CHC -104
Avg Total Runs: 11.4
Over 10.0: 54.4%
Under 10.0: 38.0%
MIL +1.5: 62.6%
CHC -1.5: 37.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 3.1 - CHC 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.1 - CHC 3.2
F5 Win Prob: MIL 48.3% - CHC 51.7% (Tie: 13.3%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +107 / CHC -107
F5 Avg Total: 6.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML +116 +104 +2.8%
CHC ML -124 -104 -4.5%
MIL +1.5 -186 -168 -2.4%
CHC -1.5 +153 +168 -2.1%
O 10.0 -110 N/A +2.0%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -14.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | September 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brady Basso Home: MacKenzie Gore
ERA: 4.5 ERA: 4.4
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 7.07 K/9: 9.94
BB/9: 1.29 BB/9: 3.38
FIP: 3.35 FIP: 3.58
IP: 28.0 IP: 149.3
xERA: 3.62 xERA: 3.88
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH TEX Lg Avg
Record 53-85 68-70
R/Game 4.33 4.07 4.47
RA/Game 5.76 4.39 4.47
OPS 0.717 0.714 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.308 0.309
ERA 5.45 4.26 4.16
FIP 4.77 3.96 4.04
WHIP 1.50 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.54 8.69 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.372 0.466 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.98 4.55 4.22
BP FIP 4.72 4.28 4.06
BP WHIP 1.61 1.39
BP K/9 9.06 8.32
BP Quality* 60.1 50.1 46.1
BP IP 508.7 464.3
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: José Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Roycroft (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0223 (Temp: 1.0330 | Wind: 0.9896)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.6 - TEX 5.6
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.6 - TEX 5.7
Win Probability: ATH 40.4% - TEX 59.6%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +148 / TEX -148
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 7.5: 69.8%
Under 7.5: 30.2%
ATH +1.5: 55.1%
TEX -1.5: 44.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.4 - TEX 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.4 - TEX 3.0
F5 Win Prob: ATH 40.6% - TEX 59.4% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +146 / TEX -146
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +191 +148 +6.0%
TEX ML -206 -148 -7.7%
ATH +1.5 -129 -123 -1.3%
TEX -1.5 +107 +123 -3.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +17.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -22.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 17.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01137
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | September 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sean Burke Home: Ronel Blanco
ERA: 3.32 ERA: 7.71
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 9.72 K/9: 7.71
BB/9: 3.02 BB/9: 4.63
FIP: 3.52 FIP: 6.83
IP: 149.0 IP: 23.3
xERA: 3.7 xERA: 5.42
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.354
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Burke)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS HOU Lg Avg
Record 72-65 70-68
R/Game 4.78 4.57 4.47
RA/Game 4.48 4.86 4.47
OPS 0.727 0.726 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.309 0.309
ERA 4.16 4.61 4.16
FIP 4.10 4.43 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.43 8.89 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.530 0.472 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 4.21 4.22
BP FIP 4.57 4.27 4.06
BP WHIP 1.42 1.29
BP K/9 8.08 9.12
BP Quality* 52.1 51.0 46.1
BP IP 306.3 482.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (34 pitches yesterday)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 18%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0053 (Temp: 1.0129 | Wind: 0.9925)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 6.0 - HOU 4.5
Simulated Avg: CWS 6.1 - HOU 4.5
Win Probability: CWS 63.3% - HOU 36.7%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -172 / HOU +172
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 8.5: 63.9%
Under 8.5: 36.1%
CWS -1.5: 49.4%
HOU +1.5: 50.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 3.7 - HOU 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 3.7 - HOU 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CWS 71.1% - HOU 28.9% (Tie: 13.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -246 / HOU +246
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML -102 -172 +12.8%
HOU ML -105 +172 -14.5%
CWS -1.5 +153 +103 +9.9%
HOU +1.5 -186 -103 -14.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +11.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -16.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Chicago White Sox (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -102 | Edge: 12.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01138
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | September 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Bradish Home: Gabriel Hughes
ERA: 4.03 ERA: 6.61
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 8.37 K/9: 7.17
BB/9: 3.9 BB/9: 3.59
FIP: 4.0 FIP: 4.06
IP: 143.0 IP: 47.7
xERA: 4.31 xERA: 3.62
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.295
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL COL Lg Avg
Record 69-69 52-86
R/Game 4.55 4.67 4.47
RA/Game 4.67 5.71 4.47
OPS 0.715 0.737 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.317 0.309
ERA 4.17 5.47 4.16
FIP 3.96 4.69 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.52 1.30
K/9 8.04 6.94 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.488 0.409 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.12 4.70 4.22
BP FIP 3.70 4.34 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.53
BP K/9 8.75 7.62
BP Quality* 49.8 55.3 46.1
BP IP 456.7 277.7
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nick Frasso (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0200 (Temp: 1.0170 | Wind: 1.0030)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 5.9 - COL 5.7
Simulated Avg: BAL 5.9 - COL 5.7
Win Probability: BAL 51.8% - COL 48.2%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -107 / COL +107
Avg Total Runs: 11.7
Over 11.0: 48.3%
Under 11.0: 44.2%
BAL -1.5: 38.6%
COL +1.5: 61.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 3.2 - COL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 3.2 - COL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: BAL 52.6% - COL 47.4% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -111 / COL +111
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML -140 -107 -6.6%
COL ML +131 +107 +4.9%
BAL -1.5 +104 +159 -10.5%
COL +1.5 -126 -159 +5.7%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -4.1%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -8.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | September 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gerrit Cole Home: Grayson Rodriguez
ERA: 3.19 ERA: 6.03
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 9.58 K/9: 8.16
BB/9: 1.92 BB/9: 3.89
FIP: 3.32 FIP: 4.4
IP: 98.7 IP: 71.7
xERA: 3.29 xERA: 5.46
xwOBA: 0.282 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Gerrit Cole)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY LAA Lg Avg
Record 78-60 53-85
R/Game 4.51 4.09 4.47
RA/Game 3.73 4.62 4.47
OPS 0.719 0.682 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.296 0.309
ERA 3.26 4.25 4.16
FIP 3.54 4.00 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.02 9.09 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.586 0.445 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.04 4.60 4.22
BP FIP 3.77 4.28 4.06
BP WHIP 1.20 1.41
BP K/9 8.29 9.07
BP Quality* 44.3 50.3 46.1
BP IP 449.3 362.0
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Michael Fulmer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gil (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9893 (Temp: 1.0016 | Wind: 0.9876)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 5.2 - LAA 3.6
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.2 - LAA 3.6
Win Probability: NYY 65.6% - LAA 34.4%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -191 / LAA +191
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.5: 59.1%
Under 7.5: 40.9%
NYY -1.5: 49.9%
LAA +1.5: 50.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 3.1 - LAA 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 3.1 - LAA 1.8
F5 Win Prob: NYY 70.5% - LAA 29.5% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -239 / LAA +239
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -180 -191 +1.4%
LAA ML +168 +191 -3.0%
NYY -1.5 -110 +100 -2.4%
LAA +1.5 -110 -100 -2.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +6.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -11.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | September 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jesús Luzardo Home: Eduardo Rodriguez
ERA: 3.09 ERA: 2.5
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 11.21 K/9: 6.61
BB/9: 2.76 BB/9: 2.89
FIP: 2.65 FIP: 3.72
IP: 163.0 IP: 162.0
xERA: 2.87 xERA: 4.43
xwOBA: 0.264 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI ARI Lg Avg
Record 78-60 73-66
R/Game 4.52 4.50 4.47
RA/Game 4.30 4.47 4.47
OPS 0.715 0.713 0.718
wOBA 0.307 0.306 0.309
ERA 4.03 4.17 4.16
FIP 3.62 4.26 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.97 6.92 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.523 0.503 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.09 3.62 4.22
BP FIP 3.52 3.65 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.22
BP K/9 10.04 7.57
BP Quality* 48.6 44.5 46.1
BP IP 468.7 437.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex McFarlane (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0241 (Temp: 1.0357 | Wind: 0.9888)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.2 - ARI 4.0
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.2 - ARI 4.0
Win Probability: PHI 52.1% - ARI 47.9%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -109 / ARI +109
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 53.1%
Under 7.5: 46.9%
PHI -1.5: 35.3%
ARI +1.5: 64.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.3 - ARI 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.3 - ARI 1.8
F5 Win Prob: PHI 59.5% - ARI 40.5% (Tie: 18.4%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -147 / ARI +147
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -129 -109 -4.2%
ARI ML +120 +109 +2.5%
PHI -1.5 +123 +184 -9.6%
ARI +1.5 -149 -184 +4.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -5.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | September 01, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael McGreevy Home: Eric Lauer
ERA: 3.86 ERA: 4.78
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 6.2 K/9: 5.98
BB/9: 2.4 BB/9: 2.91
FIP: 4.35 FIP: 5.7
IP: 142.3 IP: 105.3
xERA: 5.38 xERA: 4.78
xwOBA: 0.353 xwOBA: 0.335
Pitcher Edge: STL (Michael McGreevy)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL LAD Lg Avg
Record 68-70 82-55
R/Game 4.42 4.89 4.47
RA/Game 4.53 3.77 4.47
OPS 0.696 0.757 0.718
wOBA 0.302 0.324 0.309
ERA 4.23 3.62 4.16
FIP 3.93 3.71 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.16 1.30
K/9 7.94 9.28 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.489 0.616 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.38 4.01 4.22
BP FIP 4.04 3.84 4.06
BP WHIP 1.35 1.29
BP K/9 8.08 9.77
BP Quality* 46.8 45.3 46.1
BP IP 522.3 428.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Seth Halvorsen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9829 (Temp: 0.9933 | Wind: 0.9895)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 4.7 - LAD 5.1
Simulated Avg: STL 4.7 - LAD 5.1
Win Probability: STL 46.1% - LAD 53.9%
Fair Moneyline: STL +117 / LAD -117
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 49.3%
Under 9.0: 41.9%
STL +1.5: 61.3%
LAD -1.5: 38.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.9 - LAD 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.9 - LAD 2.9
F5 Win Prob: STL 50.0% - LAD 50.0% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -100 / LAD +100
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +158 +117 +7.3%
LAD ML -170 -117 -9.0%
STL +1.5 -137 -159 +3.5%
LAD -1.5 +114 +159 -8.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -3.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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