2026-09-02
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-02
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | September 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Casey Mize Home: Brandon Williamson
ERA: 3.45 ERA: 6.11
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.64
K/9: 7.88 K/9: 6.11
BB/9: 2.22 BB/9: 6.43
FIP: 3.39 FIP: 5.74
IP: 109.7 IP: 28.0
xERA: 3.5 xERA: 6.81
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.389
Pitcher Edge: SD (Casey Mize)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD CIN Lg Avg
Record 73-66 66-73
R/Game 4.25 4.13 4.48
RA/Game 4.15 4.94 4.48
OPS 0.702 0.701 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.91 4.66 4.17
FIP 4.03 4.54 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.42 1.30
K/9 8.22 8.17 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.511 0.419 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.86 4.75 4.25
BP FIP 3.01 4.66 4.08
BP WHIP 1.16 1.45
BP K/9 11.06 8.65
BP Quality* 40.8 56.1 46.4
BP IP 286.3 517.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Morgan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Dustin Harris, Miguel Andujar, Manny Machado, Gavin Sheets
Dustin Harris Outfielder OPS: 0.744 (60 AB)
Miguel Andujar Designated Hitter OPS: 0.726 (239 AB)
Manny Machado Third Base OPS: 0.709 (506 AB)
Gavin Sheets First Base OPS: 0.701 (356 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.1% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Spencer Steer, Blake Dunn, Eugenio Suárez
Spencer Steer First Base OPS: 0.740 (340 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Eugenio Suárez Designated Hitter OPS: 0.708 (373 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0246 (Temp: 1.0332 | Wind: 0.9917)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 5.3 - CIN 3.7
Simulated Avg: SD 5.2 - CIN 3.7
Win Probability: SD 64.8% - CIN 35.2%
Fair Moneyline: SD -184 / CIN +184
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.5: 41.8%
Under 9.5: 58.2%
SD -1.5: 48.9%
CIN +1.5: 51.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 3.0 - CIN 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 3.0 - CIN 2.0
F5 Win Prob: SD 65.8% - CIN 34.2% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: SD -192 / CIN +192
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML -157 -184 +3.7%
CIN ML +130 +184 -8.3%
SD -1.5 +103 +104 -0.3%
CIN +1.5 -125 -104 -4.5%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -10.6%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +5.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | September 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Grant Holmes Home: Brad Lord
ERA: 3.71 ERA: 3.75
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 7.2 K/9: 8.27
BB/9: 3.85 BB/9: 3.62
FIP: 4.7 FIP: 3.96
IP: 128.7 IP: 69.7
xERA: 4.73 xERA: 4.12
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Brad Lord)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL WSH Lg Avg
Record 82-57 67-74
R/Game 4.63 5.21 4.48
RA/Game 3.85 5.05 4.48
OPS 0.724 0.757 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.324 0.310
ERA 3.61 4.66 4.17
FIP 3.93 4.56 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.61 7.89 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.584 0.515 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.16 5.99 4.25
BP FIP 3.31 5.07 4.08
BP WHIP 1.17 1.59
BP K/9 9.33 8.64
BP Quality* 42.0 61.6 46.4
BP IP 361.7 454.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brent Suter (50 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Clayton Beeter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jared Simpson (34 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Lane Thomas, Dominic Smith, Mauricio Dubón
Lane Thomas Outfielder OPS: 0.710 (321 AB)
Dominic Smith Designated Hitter OPS: 0.699 (258 AB)
Mauricio Dubón Outfielder OPS: 0.694 (493 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.5% of full strength
WSH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joey Wiemer, Harry Ford, Brady House, Jacob Young
Joey Wiemer Outfielder OPS: 0.912 (70 AB)
Harry Ford Catcher OPS: 0.715 (73 AB)
Brady House Third Base OPS: 0.710 (264 AB)
Jacob Young Outfielder OPS: 0.710 (378 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0479 (Temp: 1.0309 | Wind: 1.0165)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 4.9 - WSH 5.0
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.9 - WSH 5.0
Win Probability: ATL 49.0% - WSH 51.0%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +104 / WSH -104
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 9.5: 50.7%
Under 9.5: 49.2%
ATL -1.5: 34.4%
WSH +1.5: 65.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.4 - WSH 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.4 - WSH 2.9
F5 Win Prob: ATL 41.4% - WSH 58.6% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +142 / WSH -142
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -143 +104 -9.8%
WSH ML +119 -104 +5.3%
ATL -1.5 +109 +191 -13.4%
WSH +1.5 -132 -191 +8.7%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -1.6%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -3.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line) [-132]
Model: 65.6% | Market: 56.9% | Edge: 8.7%
Fair ML: -191 | Kelly: 5.04%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01139
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | September 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob Lopez Home: Cody Bradford
ERA: 4.82 ERA: 3.42
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 8.73 K/9: 4.44
BB/9: 4.55 BB/9: 2.05
FIP: 4.65 FIP: 3.29
IP: 99.0 IP: 26.3
xERA: 3.4 xERA: 5.02
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Cody Bradford)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH TEX Lg Avg
Record 53-86 69-70
R/Game 4.33 4.10 4.48
RA/Game 5.78 4.40 4.48
OPS 0.718 0.715 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.309 0.310
ERA 5.48 4.27 4.17
FIP 4.76 3.96 4.04
WHIP 1.50 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.55 8.70 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.371 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.02 4.53 4.25
BP FIP 4.70 4.25 4.08
BP WHIP 1.62 1.39
BP K/9 9.08 8.48
BP Quality* 60.2 52.9 46.4
BP IP 514.3 485.0
Bullpen Edge: TEX (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: José Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Scott Blewett (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Trevor Williams (43 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 98°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (98°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0522 (Temp: 1.0392 | Wind: 1.0125)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 4.8 - TEX 5.3
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.8 - TEX 5.3
Win Probability: ATH 45.9% - TEX 54.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +118 / TEX -118
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 8.0: 60.8%
Under 8.0: 31.0%
ATH +1.5: 60.7%
TEX -1.5: 39.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 2.5 - TEX 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.5 - TEX 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ATH 48.1% - TEX 51.8% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +108 / TEX -108
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +138 +118 +3.8%
TEX ML -167 -118 -8.4%
ATH +1.5 -157 -154 -0.4%
TEX -1.5 +130 +154 -4.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +8.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -21.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.4%
Fair ML: -155 | Kelly: 4.41%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01140
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | September 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trevor Rogers Home: Tomoyuki Sugano
ERA: 4.38 ERA: 5.23
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 7.91 K/9: 5.37
BB/9: 2.42 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 3.66 FIP: 5.39
IP: 137.7 IP: 125.7
xERA: 3.87 xERA: 6.94
xwOBA: 0.304 xwOBA: 0.392
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Trevor Rogers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL COL Lg Avg
Record 69-70 53-86
R/Game 4.53 4.67 4.48
RA/Game 4.67 5.68 4.48
OPS 0.714 0.738 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.318 0.310
ERA 4.16 5.44 4.17
FIP 3.98 4.68 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.52 1.30
K/9 8.03 6.96 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.411 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 4.68 4.25
BP FIP 3.72 4.34 4.08
BP WHIP 1.31 1.52
BP K/9 8.73 7.65
BP Quality* 45.4 53.6 46.4
BP IP 459.7 281.0
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Josh Walker (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0337 (Temp: 1.0251 | Wind: 1.0084)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 6.9 - COL 5.4
Simulated Avg: BAL 6.9 - COL 5.4
Win Probability: BAL 61.1% - COL 38.9%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -157 / COL +157
Avg Total Runs: 12.3
Over 11.5: 52.8%
Under 11.5: 47.2%
BAL -1.5: 48.7%
COL +1.5: 51.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 4.2 - COL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 4.2 - COL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: BAL 64.9% - COL 35.1% (Tie: 12.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -185 / COL +185
F5 Avg Total: 7.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML -164 -157 -1.0%
COL ML +136 +157 -3.5%
BAL -1.5 -107 +105 -3.0%
COL +1.5 -112 -105 -1.5%
O 11.5 -110 N/A +0.4%
U 11.5 -110 N/A -5.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | September 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Painter Home: Taylor Clarke
ERA: 5.95 ERA: 2.6
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 0.88
K/9: 7.78 K/9: 5.34
BB/9: 3.39 BB/9: 1.59
FIP: 4.75 FIP: 3.69
IP: 98.3 IP: 62.3
xERA: 4.6 xERA: 4.33
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Taylor Clarke)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI ARI Lg Avg
Record 79-60 73-67
R/Game 4.54 4.48 4.48
RA/Game 4.27 4.49 4.48
OPS 0.716 0.712 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.306 0.310
ERA 4.01 4.19 4.17
FIP 3.62 4.26 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.96 6.91 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.528 0.499 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.07 3.67 4.25
BP FIP 3.51 3.64 4.08
BP WHIP 1.31 1.22
BP K/9 10.09 7.56
BP Quality* 46.9 41.6 46.4
BP IP 466.3 441.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex McFarlane (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.0 - ARI 5.2
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.0 - ARI 5.2
Win Probability: PHI 38.6% - ARI 61.4%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +159 / ARI -159
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.0: 44.0%
Under 9.0: 47.1%
PHI -1.5: 24.4%
ARI +1.5: 75.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.2 - ARI 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.2 - ARI 3.0
F5 Win Prob: PHI 37.0% - ARI 63.0% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +170 / ARI -170
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -118 +159 -15.5%
ARI ML -102 -159 +10.9%
PHI -1.5 +134 +310 -18.3%
ARI +1.5 -162 -310 +13.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -8.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -5.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -162 | Edge: 13.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01141
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | September 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bryce Miller Home: Patrick Sandoval
ERA: 4.12 ERA: 4.2
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.71
K/9: 8.81 K/9: 9.6
BB/9: 2.39 BB/9: 4.4
FIP: 4.29 FIP: 4.17
IP: 94.0 IP: 45.0
xERA: 3.18 xERA: 5.09
xwOBA: 0.277 xwOBA: 0.344
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA BOS Lg Avg
Record 65-74 75-64
R/Game 3.94 4.49 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 3.90 4.48
OPS 0.685 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.19 3.64 4.17
FIP 3.83 3.61 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.24 1.30
K/9 8.61 8.64 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.445 0.564 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 3.51 4.25
BP FIP 4.14 3.54 4.08
BP WHIP 1.37 1.26
BP K/9 8.57 9.17
BP Quality* 51.5 46.5 46.4
BP IP 467.3 386.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Alec Gamboa (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Wyatt Olds (53 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0461 (Temp: 0.9970 | Wind: 1.0493)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.4 - BOS 5.0
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.5 - BOS 5.0
Win Probability: SEA 44.3% - BOS 55.7%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +126 / BOS -126
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.5: 55.6%
Under 8.5: 44.4%
SEA +1.5: 59.8%
BOS -1.5: 40.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.6 - BOS 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.6 - BOS 2.6
F5 Win Prob: SEA 50.3% - BOS 49.6% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -101 / BOS +101
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML +114 +126 -2.4%
BOS ML -137 -126 -2.1%
SEA +1.5 -186 -149 -5.2%
BOS -1.5 +153 +149 +0.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -7.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | September 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Landen Roupp Home: Bubba Chandler
ERA: 4.25 ERA: 4.26
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 8.57 K/9: 8.04
BB/9: 4.25 BB/9: 4.67
FIP: 3.64 FIP: 3.96
IP: 139.7 IP: 131.0
xERA: 3.81 xERA: 4.12
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: SF (Landen Roupp)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF PIT Lg Avg
Record 57-82 68-71
R/Game 4.17 4.91 4.48
RA/Game 4.68 4.71 4.48
OPS 0.716 0.736 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.319 0.310
ERA 4.39 4.24 4.17
FIP 4.02 3.72 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.32 1.30
K/9 7.71 9.27 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.518 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.71 3.73 4.25
BP FIP 4.24 3.60 4.08
BP WHIP 1.49 1.33
BP K/9 7.30 9.65
BP Quality* 53.1 48.2 46.4
BP IP 382.3 446.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Braxton Roxby (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Cesar Perdomo (58 pitches yesterday)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9990 (Temp: 1.0258 | Wind: 0.9739)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 4.0 - PIT 5.0
Simulated Avg: SF 4.0 - PIT 5.0
Win Probability: SF 40.5% - PIT 59.5%
Fair Moneyline: SF +147 / PIT -147
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.0: 42.1%
Under 9.0: 48.9%
SF +1.5: 56.9%
PIT -1.5: 43.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.2 - PIT 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.2 - PIT 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SF 45.1% - PIT 54.9% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +122 / PIT -122
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +129 +147 -3.2%
PIT ML -156 -147 -1.4%
SF +1.5 -164 -132 -5.2%
PIT -1.5 +136 +132 +0.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -10.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -3.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] NYM starter (id 663795) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | September 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Player 663795 Home: Griffin Jax
ERA: 0.0 ERA: 3.63
WHIP: 0.0 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 0.0 K/9: 9.82
BB/9: 0.0 BB/9: 2.95
FIP: 0.0 FIP: 3.89
IP: 0.0 IP: 91.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Player 663795)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM TB Lg Avg
Record 62-77 83-55
R/Game 4.08 4.52 4.48
RA/Game 4.48 4.11 4.48
OPS 0.693 0.733 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.09 3.75 4.17
FIP 3.89 3.92 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.14 1.30
K/9 9.00 8.27 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.457 0.544 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 3.37 4.25
BP FIP 4.19 3.84 4.08
BP WHIP 1.35 1.11
BP K/9 9.29 8.76
BP Quality* 50.9 44.7 46.4
BP IP 267.3 395.3
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jefry Yan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Austin Warren (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Devenski (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.7 - TB 4.0
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.7 - TB 4.0
Win Probability: NYM 46.1% - TB 53.9%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +117 / TB -117
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 8.0: 39.6%
Under 8.0: 50.5%
NYM +1.5: 63.9%
TB -1.5: 36.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.1 - TB 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.1 - TB 1.9
F5 Win Prob: NYM 53.4% - TB 46.6% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -114 / TB +114
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML +149 +117 +5.9%
TB ML -181 -117 -10.5%
NYM +1.5 -143 -177 +5.1%
TB -1.5 +119 +177 -9.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -12.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -1.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | September 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Dylan Cease Home: Joey Cantillo
ERA: 2.33 ERA: 3.7
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 12.99 K/9: 9.57
BB/9: 3.89 BB/9: 4.62
FIP: 2.37 FIP: 3.94
IP: 150.3 IP: 136.3
xERA: 2.66 xERA: 4.01
xwOBA: 0.254 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR CLE Lg Avg
Record 68-71 70-68
R/Game 3.95 4.08 4.48
RA/Game 4.35 4.06 4.48
OPS 0.686 0.688 0.719
wOBA 0.296 0.299 0.310
ERA 3.96 3.70 4.17
FIP 3.89 3.74 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.84 9.47 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.456 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.74 3.64 4.25
BP FIP 4.09 3.56 4.08
BP WHIP 1.32 1.28
BP K/9 8.16 10.00
BP Quality* 46.1 42.6 46.4
BP IP 277.0 467.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Spencer Arrighetti (62 pitches yesterday)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0027 (Temp: 1.0298 | Wind: 0.9737)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 3.5 - CLE 3.1
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.5 - CLE 3.0
Win Probability: TOR 55.2% - CLE 44.8%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -123 / CLE +123
Avg Total Runs: 6.5
Over 7.0: 36.8%
Under 7.0: 52.5%
TOR -1.5: 35.6%
CLE +1.5: 64.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.0 - CLE 1.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.0 - CLE 1.3
F5 Win Prob: TOR 64.6% - CLE 35.4% (Tie: 21.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -182 / CLE +182
F5 Avg Total: 3.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML -131 -123 -1.5%
CLE ML +109 +123 -3.1%
TOR -1.5 +138 +181 -6.4%
CLE +1.5 -167 -181 +1.8%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -15.6%
U 7.0 -110 N/A +0.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | September 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Drew Anderson Home: Dean Kremer
ERA: 3.87 ERA: 5.6
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 10.05 K/9: 8.76
BB/9: 3.66 BB/9: 3.16
FIP: 4.05 FIP: 5.32
IP: 86.0 IP: 62.7
xERA: 3.81 xERA: 4.48
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: DET (Drew Anderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET MIN Lg Avg
Record 63-75 67-72
R/Game 4.34 4.69 4.48
RA/Game 4.04 4.93 4.48
OPS 0.710 0.730 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.315 0.310
ERA 3.71 4.61 4.17
FIP 3.87 4.12 4.04
WHIP 1.23 1.37 1.30
K/9 8.19 8.45 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.533 0.477 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 4.51 4.25
BP FIP 4.56 3.97 4.08
BP WHIP 1.37 1.42
BP K/9 8.24 8.80
BP Quality* 52.6 50.3 46.4
BP IP 413.0 505.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Waguespack (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Garrett Acton (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Connor Prielipp (73 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0124 (Temp: 1.0191 | Wind: 0.9935)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 5.1 - MIN 5.0
Simulated Avg: DET 5.1 - MIN 5.0
Win Probability: DET 50.6% - MIN 49.4%
Fair Moneyline: DET -102 / MIN +102
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 8.5: 60.4%
Under 8.5: 39.6%
DET -1.5: 36.1%
MIN +1.5: 63.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 3.0 - MIN 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 3.0 - MIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: DET 56.7% - MIN 43.3% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -131 / MIN +131
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -106 -102 -0.9%
MIN ML -114 +102 -3.9%
DET -1.5 +155 +177 -3.1%
MIN +1.5 -188 -177 -1.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +8.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -12.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.18%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01142
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | September 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eury Pérez Home: Noah Cameron
ERA: 3.44 ERA: 3.98
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 9.78 K/9: 7.9
BB/9: 3.86 BB/9: 2.89
FIP: 3.6 FIP: 3.62
IP: 130.7 IP: 149.3
xERA: 3.71 xERA: 4.12
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA KC Lg Avg
Record 70-69 62-77
R/Game 4.34 4.27 4.48
RA/Game 4.23 4.88 4.48
OPS 0.723 0.716 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.307 0.310
ERA 3.92 4.69 4.17
FIP 3.85 4.50 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.34 7.44 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.438 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.53 6.09 4.25
BP FIP 3.90 5.42 4.08
BP WHIP 1.32 1.65
BP K/9 8.88 7.54
BP Quality* 50.8 61.3 46.4
BP IP 455.0 470.0
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0087 (Temp: 1.0363 | Wind: 0.9733)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.6 - KC 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.6 - KC 4.2
Win Probability: MIA 54.3% - KC 45.7%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -119 / KC +119
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 9.0: 40.4%
Under 9.0: 50.4%
MIA -1.5: 38.4%
KC +1.5: 61.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.2 - KC 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.2 - KC 2.1
F5 Win Prob: MIA 53.1% - KC 46.9% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -113 / KC +113
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML -107 -119 +2.6%
KC ML -112 +119 -7.2%
MIA -1.5 +149 +160 -1.8%
KC +1.5 -181 -160 -2.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -11.9%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -2.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | September 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jacob Misiorowski Home: David Peterson
ERA: 1.73 ERA: 5.11
WHIP: 0.75 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 13.23 K/9: 7.95
BB/9: 2.09 BB/9: 3.79
FIP: 1.97 FIP: 3.97
IP: 151.0 IP: 123.3
xERA: 2.01 xERA: 4.89
xwOBA: 0.22 xwOBA: 0.338
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL CHC Lg Avg
Record 86-53 78-61
R/Game 5.00 5.37 4.48
RA/Game 3.79 4.39 4.48
OPS 0.738 0.773 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.332 0.310
ERA 3.47 4.17 4.17
FIP 3.55 4.59 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.26 1.30
K/9 9.64 7.77 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.624 0.591 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.48 4.66 4.25
BP FIP 3.62 4.66 4.08
BP WHIP 1.27 1.38
BP K/9 8.85 8.68
BP Quality* 42.5 53.5 46.4
BP IP 512.3 490.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: DL Hall (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Ferguson (37 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0050 (Temp: 1.0240 | Wind: 0.9814)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.7 - CHC 3.8
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.7 - CHC 3.9
Win Probability: MIL 67.0% - CHC 33.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -203 / CHC +203
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.0: 56.7%
Under 8.0: 34.8%
MIL -1.5: 52.0%
CHC +1.5: 48.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 3.1 - CHC 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.1 - CHC 1.6
F5 Win Prob: MIL 75.2% - CHC 24.8% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -303 / CHC +303
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -162 -203 +5.1%
CHC ML +134 +203 -9.7%
MIL -1.5 +105 -108 +3.2%
CHC +1.5 -126 +108 -7.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +4.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -17.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | September 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Davis Martin Home: Hayden Wesneski
ERA: 4.32 ERA: 3.86
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 7.99 K/9: 7.71
BB/9: 2.81 BB/9: 3.31
FIP: 3.51 FIP: 3.28
IP: 125.0 IP: 32.7
xERA: 4.66 xERA: 3.87
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.304
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS HOU Lg Avg
Record 73-65 70-69
R/Game 4.78 4.54 4.48
RA/Game 4.46 4.86 4.48
OPS 0.727 0.724 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.14 4.61 4.17
FIP 4.10 4.42 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.37 1.30
K/9 8.46 8.90 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.532 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 4.21 4.25
BP FIP 4.51 4.27 4.08
BP WHIP 1.41 1.29
BP K/9 8.19 9.12
BP Quality* 49.8 52.5 46.4
BP IP 304.3 482.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Kai-Wei Teng (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tatsuya Imai (59 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Okert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 24%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0018 (Temp: 1.0139 | Wind: 0.9880)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 4.6 - HOU 4.7
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.6 - HOU 4.8
Win Probability: CWS 47.8% - HOU 52.2%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +109 / HOU -109
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.5: 54.2%
Under 8.5: 45.8%
CWS +1.5: 63.8%
HOU -1.5: 36.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.3 - HOU 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.3 - HOU 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CWS 46.3% - HOU 53.7% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +116 / HOU -116
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +118 +109 +1.9%
HOU ML -142 -109 -6.4%
CWS +1.5 -181 -176 -0.6%
HOU -1.5 +149 +176 -3.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +1.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | September 02, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cam Schlittler Home: Reid Detmers
ERA: 2.09 ERA: 3.54
WHIP: 0.97 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 11.05 K/9: 10.1
BB/9: 2.31 BB/9: 2.55
FIP: 2.53 FIP: 3.13
IP: 163.7 IP: 155.0
xERA: 2.97 xERA: 3.35
xwOBA: 0.268 xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY LAA Lg Avg
Record 79-60 53-86
R/Game 4.53 4.09 4.48
RA/Game 3.73 4.64 4.48
OPS 0.721 0.681 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.296 0.310
ERA 3.25 4.27 4.17
FIP 3.53 4.01 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.35 1.30
K/9 9.01 9.11 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.589 0.442 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.08 4.64 4.25
BP FIP 3.86 4.26 4.08
BP WHIP 1.20 1.42
BP K/9 8.12 9.12
BP Quality* 40.3 51.9 46.4
BP IP 502.3 365.0
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Sammy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9931 (Temp: 1.0037 | Wind: 0.9894)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.1 - LAA 3.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.1 - LAA 3.0
Win Probability: NYY 62.4% - LAA 37.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -166 / LAA +166
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 7.0: 42.9%
Under 7.0: 46.4%
NYY -1.5: 43.7%
LAA +1.5: 56.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.0 - LAA 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.0 - LAA 1.4
F5 Win Prob: NYY 62.1% - LAA 37.9% (Tie: 20.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -164 / LAA +164
F5 Avg Total: 3.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -171 -166 -0.7%
LAA ML +141 +166 -3.9%
NYY -1.5 +109 +129 -4.2%
LAA +1.5 -131 -129 -0.4%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -9.5%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -6.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | September 02, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL LAD Lg Avg
Record 69-70 82-56
R/Game 4.48 4.91 4.48
RA/Game 4.55 3.84 4.48
OPS 0.700 0.756 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.324 0.310
ERA 4.24 3.69 4.17
FIP 3.92 3.75 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.16 1.30
K/9 7.93 9.28 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.493 0.611 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 4.04 4.25
BP FIP 4.07 3.88 4.08
BP WHIP 1.36 1.29
BP K/9 7.99 9.76
BP Quality* 48.9 48.6 46.4
BP IP 483.3 432.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Seth Halvorsen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Wrobleski (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kyle Hurt (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9885 (Temp: 0.9964 | Wind: 0.9921)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 3.6 - LAD 4.9
Simulated Avg: STL 3.6 - LAD 4.9
Win Probability: STL 36.4% - LAD 63.6%
Fair Moneyline: STL +175 / LAD -175
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 46.7%
Under 8.0: 43.8%
STL +1.5: 53.5%
LAD -1.5: 46.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 1.7 - LAD 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 1.7 - LAD 2.7
F5 Win Prob: STL 33.0% - LAD 67.0% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +203 / LAD -203
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +203 +175 +3.3%
LAD ML -252 -175 -7.9%
STL +1.5 -110 -115 +1.1%
LAD -1.5 -110 +115 -5.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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