2026-09-03
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-03
Games: 9 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | September 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Blade Tidwell Home: Lake Bachar
ERA: 4.54 ERA: 3.7
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 7.41 K/9: 9.2
BB/9: 3.11 BB/9: 3.58
FIP: 4.21 FIP: 4.49
IP: 37.7 IP: 75.3
xERA: 3.65 xERA: 3.52
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF PIT Lg Avg
Record 58-82 68-72
R/Game 4.17 4.90 4.48
RA/Game 4.67 4.71 4.48
OPS 0.716 0.735 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.319 0.310
ERA 4.38 4.24 4.17
FIP 4.01 3.72 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.32 1.31
K/9 7.70 9.24 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.448 0.518 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.69 3.74 4.26
BP FIP 4.23 3.60 4.08
BP WHIP 1.49 1.33
BP K/9 7.30 9.63
BP Quality* 56.0 45.3 46.4
BP IP 387.3 447.7
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jason Foley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Casey Schmitt, Jung Hoo Lee, Jesus Rodriguez, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman
Casey Schmitt Outfielder OPS: 0.784 (387 AB)
Jung Hoo Lee Outfielder OPS: 0.736 (485 AB)
Jesus Rodriguez Catcher OPS: 0.728 (51 AB)
Willy Adames Shortstop OPS: 0.713 (465 AB)
Matt Chapman Third Base OPS: 0.692 (307 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.5% of full strength
PIT (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Esmerlyn Valdez, Endy Rodríguez, Ryan O'Hearn, Konnor Griffin
Esmerlyn Valdez Outfielder OPS: 0.867 (226 AB)
Endy Rodríguez Catcher OPS: 0.840 (135 AB)
Ryan O'Hearn First Base OPS: 0.788 (359 AB)
Konnor Griffin Shortstop OPS: 0.736 (225 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9999 (Temp: 1.0222 | Wind: 0.9782)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.5 - PIT 4.7
Simulated Avg: SF 3.5 - PIT 4.7
Win Probability: SF 37.8% - PIT 62.2%
Fair Moneyline: SF +165 / PIT -165
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
SF -1.5: 22.5%
SF +1.5: 55.3%
PIT -1.5: 44.7%
PIT +1.5: 77.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.9 - PIT 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.9 - PIT 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SF 42.0% - PIT 58.0% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +138 / PIT -138
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | September 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: José Soriano Home: Tanner Bibee
ERA: 3.45 ERA: 3.88
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 8.86 K/9: 7.1
BB/9: 3.98 BB/9: 2.55
FIP: 3.66 FIP: 4.46
IP: 151.3 IP: 162.3
xERA: 4.48 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.325 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: TOR (José Soriano)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR CLE Lg Avg
Record 69-71 70-69
R/Game 4.00 4.05 4.48
RA/Game 4.31 4.11 4.48
OPS 0.688 0.686 0.719
wOBA 0.297 0.298 0.310
ERA 3.93 3.72 4.17
FIP 3.87 3.74 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.84 9.45 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.465 0.494 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.71 3.65 4.26
BP FIP 4.06 3.58 4.08
BP WHIP 1.32 1.28
BP K/9 8.19 9.96
BP Quality* 44.3 41.2 46.4
BP IP 279.0 471.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Luis Urías, Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Kazuma Okamoto, Yohendrick Piñango
Luis Urías Second Base OPS: 0.803 (52 AB)
Alejandro Kirk Catcher OPS: 0.752 (218 AB)
George Springer Designated Hitter OPS: 0.743 (398 AB)
Kazuma Okamoto Third Base OPS: 0.742 (493 AB)
Yohendrick Piñango Outfielder OPS: 0.702 (169 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.8% of full strength
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Angel Martínez, Kyle Manzardo
Angel Martínez Outfielder OPS: 0.724 (324 AB)
Kyle Manzardo First Base OPS: 0.684 (312 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0320 (Temp: 1.0272 | Wind: 1.0047)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.4 - CLE 3.8
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.4 - CLE 3.8
Win Probability: TOR 45.4% - CLE 54.6%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +120 / CLE -120
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
TOR -1.5: 27.8%
TOR +1.5: 64.2%
CLE -1.5: 35.8%
CLE +1.5: 72.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.0 - CLE 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.0 - CLE 2.1
F5 Win Prob: TOR 47.8% - CLE 52.2% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +109 / CLE -109
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | September 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Luis Castillo Home: Hunter Brown
ERA: 5.31 ERA: 3.33
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 7.82 K/9: 9.56
BB/9: 2.8 BB/9: 4.89
FIP: 4.75 FIP: 4.21
IP: 122.0 IP: 81.0
xERA: 4.99 xERA: 3.58
xwOBA: 0.341 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Hunter Brown)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS HOU Lg Avg
Record 73-66 71-69
R/Game 4.75 4.52 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 4.82 4.48
OPS 0.725 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.13 4.58 4.17
FIP 4.09 4.41 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.36 1.31
K/9 8.44 8.87 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.531 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.46 4.20 4.26
BP FIP 4.52 4.27 4.08
BP WHIP 1.41 1.30
BP K/9 8.18 9.10
BP Quality* 52.8 46.5 46.4
BP IP 304.7 484.7
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Sean Newcomb (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 45%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0170 (Temp: 1.0321 | Wind: 0.9853)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.5 - HOU 5.5
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.5 - HOU 5.5
Win Probability: CWS 40.4% - HOU 59.6%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +147 / HOU -147
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
CWS -1.5: 26.8%
CWS +1.5: 55.6%
HOU -1.5: 44.4%
HOU +1.5: 73.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.4 - HOU 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.4 - HOU 3.1
F5 Win Prob: CWS 39.3% - HOU 60.7% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +154 / HOU -154
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | September 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jake Bennett Home: Brandon Young
ERA: 3.27 ERA: 3.38
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 7.11 K/9: 7.11
BB/9: 1.73 BB/9: 3.18
FIP: 3.07 FIP: 4.27
IP: 93.7 IP: 130.3
xERA: 3.18 xERA: 4.36
xwOBA: 0.277 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Jake Bennett)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS BAL Lg Avg
Record 75-65 69-71
R/Game 4.48 4.54 4.48
RA/Game 3.93 4.68 4.48
OPS 0.730 0.713 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.66 4.16 4.17
FIP 3.61 3.95 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.35 1.31
K/9 8.61 8.08 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.560 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.50 4.13 4.26
BP FIP 3.52 3.71 4.08
BP WHIP 1.25 1.31
BP K/9 9.19 8.77
BP Quality* 43.3 51.4 46.4
BP IP 388.7 463.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brayan Bello (69 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Alec Gamboa (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Kittredge (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Walker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 14%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0191 (Temp: 1.0225 | Wind: 0.9967)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 4.7 - BAL 4.0
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.7 - BAL 4.0
Win Probability: BOS 57.1% - BAL 42.9%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -133 / BAL +133
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
BOS -1.5: 41.1%
BOS +1.5: 72.6%
BAL -1.5: 27.4%
BAL +1.5: 58.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.5 - BAL 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.5 - BAL 2.0
F5 Win Prob: BOS 58.9% - BAL 41.1% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -143 / BAL +143
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | September 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Logan Henderson Home: Kevin Gausman
ERA: 2.48 ERA: 4.52
WHIP: 0.83 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 10.14 K/9: 9.04
BB/9: 1.65 BB/9: 2.49
FIP: 3.27 FIP: 3.6
IP: 76.3 IP: 155.3
xERA: 2.73 xERA: 3.92
xwOBA: 0.257 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Logan Henderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL CHC Lg Avg
Record 87-53 78-62
R/Game 5.03 5.36 4.48
RA/Game 3.80 4.42 4.48
OPS 0.740 0.772 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.332 0.310
ERA 3.48 4.21 4.17
FIP 3.55 4.58 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.27 1.31
K/9 9.64 7.78 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.625 0.588 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 4.67 4.26
BP FIP 3.61 4.63 4.08
BP WHIP 1.26 1.38
BP K/9 8.84 8.69
BP Quality* 48.2 56.4 46.4
BP IP 517.3 495.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: DL Hall (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Daniel Palencia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colin Rea (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9992 (Temp: 1.0093 | Wind: 0.9900)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 5.4 - CHC 4.7
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.4 - CHC 4.7
Win Probability: MIL 55.6% - CHC 44.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -125 / CHC +125
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
MIL -1.5: 41.2%
MIL +1.5: 69.8%
CHC -1.5: 30.2%
CHC +1.5: 58.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.7 - CHC 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.7 - CHC 2.2
F5 Win Prob: MIL 59.5% - CHC 40.5% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -147 / CHC +147
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | September 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sandy Alcantara Home: Michael Wacha
ERA: 3.46 ERA: 3.32
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 6.64 K/9: 7.17
BB/9: 2.37 BB/9: 2.21
FIP: 3.65 FIP: 3.92
IP: 189.7 IP: 170.7
xERA: 3.63 xERA: 3.98
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA KC Lg Avg
Record 71-69 62-78
R/Game 4.37 4.28 4.48
RA/Game 4.24 4.91 4.48
OPS 0.725 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.93 4.72 4.17
FIP 3.88 4.50 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.39 1.31
K/9 8.32 7.46 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.514 0.437 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.49 6.11 4.26
BP FIP 3.90 5.44 4.08
BP WHIP 1.31 1.65
BP K/9 8.86 7.56
BP Quality* 53.6 61.5 46.4
BP IP 459.3 474.0
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Ralston (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 96°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (96°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0080 (Temp: 1.0363 | Wind: 0.9727)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 4.6 - KC 4.3
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.6 - KC 4.3
Win Probability: MIA 53.2% - KC 46.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -113 / KC +113
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
MIA -1.5: 37.3%
MIA +1.5: 69.2%
KC -1.5: 30.8%
KC +1.5: 62.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 2.2 - KC 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.2 - KC 2.1
F5 Win Prob: MIA 52.5% - KC 47.5% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -110 / KC +110
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | September 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane McClanahan Home: Cal Quantrill
ERA: 3.19 ERA: 3.01
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 8.2 K/9: 6.83
BB/9: 3.03 BB/9: 2.21
FIP: 3.32 FIP: 3.91
IP: 113.0 IP: 89.7
xERA: 4.18 xERA: 4.01
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: TB (Shane McClanahan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB TEX Lg Avg
Record 83-56 69-71
R/Game 4.52 4.09 4.48
RA/Game 4.15 4.43 4.48
OPS 0.733 0.715 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.78 4.30 4.17
FIP 3.92 4.01 4.04
WHIP 1.15 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.25 8.70 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.539 0.463 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.43 4.56 4.26
BP FIP 3.85 4.29 4.08
BP WHIP 1.12 1.40
BP K/9 8.77 8.49
BP Quality* 45.0 53.2 46.4
BP IP 399.3 490.0
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Manuel Rodríguez (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Steven Matz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Cleavinger (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Montgomery (52 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ben Peoples (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9921 (Temp: 1.0193 | Wind: 0.9733)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.6 - TEX 4.0
Simulated Avg: TB 4.7 - TEX 4.0
Win Probability: TB 57.0% - TEX 43.0%
Fair Moneyline: TB -133 / TEX +133
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
TB -1.5: 40.5%
TB +1.5: 72.9%
TEX -1.5: 27.1%
TEX +1.5: 59.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.3 - TEX 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.3 - TEX 2.1
F5 Win Prob: TB 54.9% - TEX 45.1% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -122 / TEX +122
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | September 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jack Perkins Home: Kade Anderson
ERA: 6.42 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.49 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 10.29 K/9: 7.2
BB/9: 3.97 BB/9: 4.5
FIP: 4.59 FIP: 5.6
IP: 95.3 IP: 10.0
xERA: 4.01 xERA: 2.28
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.235
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Jack Perkins)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH SEA Lg Avg
Record 54-86 66-74
R/Game 4.36 3.96 4.48
RA/Game 5.75 4.43 4.48
OPS 0.722 0.685 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.299 0.310
ERA 5.45 4.18 4.17
FIP 4.76 3.83 4.04
WHIP 1.50 1.25 1.31
K/9 8.56 8.58 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.376 0.450 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.98 4.33 4.26
BP FIP 4.68 4.15 4.08
BP WHIP 1.61 1.37
BP K/9 9.08 8.53
BP Quality* 58.4 54.5 46.4
BP IP 517.3 471.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: José Suarez (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Cooper Criswell (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 21%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9779 (Temp: 0.9845 | Wind: 0.9932)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 4.3 - SEA 4.5
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.3 - SEA 4.5
Win Probability: ATH 47.9% - SEA 52.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +109 / SEA -109
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
ATH -1.5: 31.8%
ATH +1.5: 64.4%
SEA -1.5: 35.6%
SEA +1.5: 68.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 2.3 - SEA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.3 - SEA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ATH 48.3% - SEA 51.7% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +107 / SEA -107
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | September 03, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Quinn Mathews Home: Tarik Skubal
ERA: 5.03 ERA: 2.84
WHIP: 1.58 WHIP: 0.94
K/9: 9.15 K/9: 10.87
BB/9: 3.66 BB/9: 1.49
FIP: 2.95 FIP: 2.41
IP: 19.7 IP: 126.7
xERA: 3.32 xERA: 2.95
xwOBA: 0.283 xwOBA: 0.267
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL LAD Lg Avg
Record 70-70 82-57
R/Game 4.51 4.92 4.48
RA/Game 4.56 3.87 4.48
OPS 0.700 0.758 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.324 0.310
ERA 4.24 3.71 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.76 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.16 1.31
K/9 7.96 9.27 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.494 0.608 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 4.07 4.26
BP FIP 4.09 3.87 4.08
BP WHIP 1.37 1.29
BP K/9 8.06 9.72
BP Quality* 55.0 44.2 46.4
BP IP 493.3 435.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Ryan Fernandez (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (48 pitches yesterday)
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9874 (Temp: 0.9941 | Wind: 0.9932)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 3.3 - LAD 5.4
Simulated Avg: STL 3.3 - LAD 5.4
Win Probability: STL 29.0% - LAD 71.0%
Fair Moneyline: STL +245 / LAD -245
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
STL -1.5: 16.5%
STL +1.5: 44.8%
LAD -1.5: 55.2%
LAD +1.5: 83.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 1.5 - LAD 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 1.5 - LAD 2.9
F5 Win Prob: STL 27.4% - LAD 72.7% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +266 / LAD -266
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================