2026-09-04
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-04
Games: 16 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Keider Montero Home: Logan Allen
ERA: 3.24 ERA: 3.77
WHIP: 0.99 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 5.96 K/9: 9.42
BB/9: 2.01 BB/9: 2.51
FIP: 3.75 FIP: 4.57
IP: 139.0 IP: 14.3
xERA: 3.42 xERA: 3.71
xwOBA: 0.287 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: DET (Keider Montero)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET CLE Lg Avg
Record 64-75 70-70
R/Game 4.39 4.04 4.48
RA/Game 4.05 4.12 4.48
OPS 0.712 0.685 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.298 0.310
ERA 3.70 3.74 4.17
FIP 3.85 3.75 4.04
WHIP 1.23 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.22 9.46 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.537 0.491 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 3.63 4.25
BP FIP 4.52 3.57 4.07
BP WHIP 1.37 1.29
BP K/9 8.30 9.96
BP Quality* 52.4 47.2 46.3
BP IP 418.3 476.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Waguespack (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Carlos Hernández (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 13%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0253 (Temp: 1.0050 | Wind: 1.0202)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 4.1 - CLE 3.9
Simulated Avg: DET 4.1 - CLE 3.9
Win Probability: DET 51.2% - CLE 48.8%
Fair Moneyline: DET -105 / CLE +105
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
DET -1.5: 34.2%
DET +1.5: 68.6%
CLE -1.5: 31.4%
CLE +1.5: 65.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.2 - CLE 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.2 - CLE 1.9
F5 Win Prob: DET 55.6% - CLE 44.4% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -125 / CLE +125
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians (Game 2)
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Sears Home: Foster Griffin
ERA: 6.75 ERA: 3.21
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 5.4 K/9: 8.11
BB/9: 1.35 BB/9: 2.27
FIP: 4.29 FIP: 3.99
IP: 6.7 IP: 154.3
xERA: 4.15 xERA: 4.24
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.317
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET CLE Lg Avg
Record 64-75 70-70
R/Game 4.39 4.04 4.48
RA/Game 4.05 4.12 4.48
OPS 0.712 0.685 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.298 0.310
ERA 3.70 3.74 4.17
FIP 3.85 3.75 4.04
WHIP 1.23 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.22 9.46 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.537 0.491 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 3.63 4.25
BP FIP 4.52 3.57 4.07
BP WHIP 1.37 1.29
BP K/9 8.30 9.96
BP Quality* 55.4 53.2 46.3
BP IP 418.3 476.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Waguespack (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Carlos Hernández (B2B, 26 pitches)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 13%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0253 (Temp: 1.0050 | Wind: 1.0202)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 4.4 - CLE 4.5
Simulated Avg: DET 4.4 - CLE 4.5
Win Probability: DET 48.2% - CLE 51.8%
Fair Moneyline: DET +108 / CLE -108
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
DET -1.5: 32.6%
DET +1.5: 64.4%
CLE -1.5: 35.6%
CLE +1.5: 67.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.2 - CLE 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.2 - CLE 2.3
F5 Win Prob: DET 48.0% - CLE 52.0% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +108 / CLE -108
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane Drohan Home: Rhett Lowder
ERA: 3.75 ERA: 5.14
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 8.97 K/9: 7.07
BB/9: 3.02 BB/9: 3.46
FIP: 3.29 FIP: 4.54
IP: 110.3 IP: 112.0
xERA: 3.6 xERA: 5.12
xwOBA: 0.294 xwOBA: 0.345
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Shane Drohan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL CIN Lg Avg
Record 87-54 67-73
R/Game 5.00 4.15 4.48
RA/Game 3.79 4.92 4.48
OPS 0.738 0.703 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.304 0.310
ERA 3.47 4.64 4.17
FIP 3.55 4.54 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.42 1.30
K/9 9.62 8.18 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.624 0.423 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 4.72 4.25
BP FIP 3.61 4.64 4.07
BP WHIP 1.26 1.45
BP K/9 8.82 8.68
BP Quality* 48.2 53.0 46.3
BP IP 518.3 520.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: DL Hall (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 95°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (95°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0419 (Temp: 1.0347 | Wind: 1.0070)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 6.3 - CIN 4.4
Simulated Avg: MIL 6.3 - CIN 4.3
Win Probability: MIL 66.5% - CIN 33.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -199 / CIN +199
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
MIL -1.5: 53.0%
MIL +1.5: 78.8%
CIN -1.5: 21.2%
CIN +1.5: 47.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 3.6 - CIN 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.6 - CIN 2.2
F5 Win Prob: MIL 69.5% - CIN 30.6% (Tie: 13.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -227 / CIN +227
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chris Sale Home: Cristopher Sánchez
ERA: 2.06 ERA: 2.52
WHIP: 1.0 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 11.06 K/9: 10.37
BB/9: 1.75 BB/9: 2.0
FIP: 1.95 FIP: 2.5
IP: 144.0 IP: 175.3
xERA: 2.99 xERA: 3.27
xwOBA: 0.269 xwOBA: 0.281
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL PHI Lg Avg
Record 83-57 79-61
R/Game 4.66 4.51 4.48
RA/Game 3.82 4.25 4.48
OPS 0.725 0.713 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.307 0.310
ERA 3.58 3.99 4.17
FIP 3.92 3.62 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.59 9.95 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.590 0.527 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.11 4.08 4.25
BP FIP 3.30 3.52 4.07
BP WHIP 1.16 1.31
BP K/9 9.30 10.11
BP Quality* 38.8 44.0 46.3
BP IP 367.7 467.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0080 (Temp: 1.0096 | Wind: 0.9985)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 3.7 - PHI 3.2
Simulated Avg: ATL 3.7 - PHI 3.2
Win Probability: ATL 55.5% - PHI 44.5%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -124 / PHI +124
Avg Total Runs: 6.9
ATL -1.5: 36.6%
ATL +1.5: 73.7%
PHI -1.5: 26.3%
PHI +1.5: 63.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 1.8 - PHI 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 1.8 - PHI 1.5
F5 Win Prob: ATL 56.8% - PHI 43.2% (Tie: 21.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -132 / PHI +132
F5 Avg Total: 3.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Johnson Home: Jared Jones
ERA: 5.47 ERA: 4.83
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 6.47 K/9: 10.28
BB/9: 4.48 BB/9: 3.34
FIP: 6.03 FIP: 4.08
IP: 72.3 IP: 72.7
xERA: 5.51 xERA: 3.84
xwOBA: 0.356 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Jared Jones)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA PIT Lg Avg
Record 53-87 69-72
R/Game 4.08 4.90 4.48
RA/Game 4.65 4.70 4.48
OPS 0.680 0.734 0.719
wOBA 0.295 0.318 0.310
ERA 4.27 4.22 4.17
FIP 3.99 3.71 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.31 1.30
K/9 9.12 9.24 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.440 0.520 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.70 3.74 4.25
BP FIP 4.24 3.60 4.07
BP WHIP 1.43 1.32
BP K/9 9.12 9.60
BP Quality* 49.1 51.2 46.3
BP IP 368.0 452.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PIT: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Khristian Curtis (46 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9990 (Temp: 1.0068 | Wind: 0.9923)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 4.1 - PIT 6.1
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.1 - PIT 6.1
Win Probability: LAA 32.1% - PIT 67.9%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +211 / PIT -211
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
LAA -1.5: 20.1%
LAA +1.5: 46.9%
PIT -1.5: 53.1%
PIT +1.5: 80.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 2.2 - PIT 3.7
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.2 - PIT 3.7
F5 Win Prob: LAA 29.5% - PIT 70.5% (Tie: 13.0%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +239 / PIT -239
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ranger Suarez Home: Shane Baz
ERA: 3.64 ERA: 4.01
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 8.66 K/9: 7.97
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 3.15
FIP: 2.96 FIP: 3.29
IP: 123.7 IP: 157.0
xERA: 3.73 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.299 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS BAL Lg Avg
Record 76-65 69-72
R/Game 4.49 4.54 4.48
RA/Game 3.94 4.69 4.48
OPS 0.731 0.713 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.67 4.18 4.17
FIP 3.62 3.97 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.34 1.30
K/9 8.65 8.09 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.560 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.52 4.17 4.25
BP FIP 3.54 3.75 4.07
BP WHIP 1.25 1.31
BP K/9 9.26 8.79
BP Quality* 40.4 50.2 46.3
BP IP 391.7 466.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BAL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis De León (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Walker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0218 (Temp: 1.0188 | Wind: 1.0030)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 4.5 - BAL 4.0
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.5 - BAL 4.0
Win Probability: BOS 54.3% - BAL 45.7%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -119 / BAL +119
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
BOS -1.5: 37.9%
BOS +1.5: 70.5%
BAL -1.5: 29.5%
BAL +1.5: 62.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.3 - BAL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.3 - BAL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: BOS 52.4% - BAL 47.6% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -110 / BAL +110
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matt Wilkinson Home: Nolan McLean
ERA: 4.63 ERA: 3.06
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 4.63 K/9: 9.94
BB/9: 1.54 BB/9: 3.53
FIP: 3.7 FIP: 3.32
IP: 11.7 IP: 155.7
xERA: 3.9 xERA: 3.58
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF NYM Lg Avg
Record 58-83 63-77
R/Game 4.16 4.12 4.48
RA/Game 4.67 4.48 4.48
OPS 0.713 0.695 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.38 4.09 4.17
FIP 4.01 3.89 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.30 1.30
K/9 7.70 8.99 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.446 0.462 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.70 4.14 4.25
BP FIP 4.23 4.17 4.07
BP WHIP 1.49 1.34
BP K/9 7.26 9.22
BP Quality* 56.1 46.2 46.3
BP IP 390.3 276.3
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Walker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0133 (Temp: 1.0062 | Wind: 1.0071)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.5 - NYM 4.7
Simulated Avg: SF 3.5 - NYM 4.7
Win Probability: SF 38.1% - NYM 61.9%
Fair Moneyline: SF +163 / NYM -163
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
SF -1.5: 22.9%
SF +1.5: 55.6%
NYM -1.5: 44.4%
NYM +1.5: 77.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.8 - NYM 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.8 - NYM 2.4
F5 Win Prob: SF 38.1% - NYM 61.9% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +163 / NYM -163
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shota Imanaga Home: Janson Junk
ERA: 4.01 ERA: 4.11
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 8.86 K/9: 6.12
BB/9: 2.1 BB/9: 2.45
FIP: 4.68 FIP: 4.07
IP: 150.3 IP: 103.0
xERA: 3.79 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.301 xwOBA: 0.318
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Janson Junk)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC MIA Lg Avg
Record 79-62 71-70
R/Game 5.34 4.36 4.48
RA/Game 4.40 4.26 4.48
OPS 0.770 0.725 0.719
wOBA 0.331 0.314 0.310
ERA 4.18 3.96 4.17
FIP 4.57 3.88 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.25 1.30
K/9 7.80 8.30 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.588 0.511 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.65 4.53 4.25
BP FIP 4.62 3.88 4.07
BP WHIP 1.37 1.32
BP K/9 8.67 8.88
BP Quality* 56.2 50.7 46.3
BP IP 497.3 461.3
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Daniel Palencia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0106 (Temp: 1.0151 | Wind: 0.9955)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.1 - MIA 4.6
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.1 - MIA 4.6
Win Probability: CHC 54.6% - MIA 45.4%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -120 / MIA +120
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
CHC -1.5: 39.5%
CHC +1.5: 69.6%
MIA -1.5: 30.4%
MIA +1.5: 60.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.8 - MIA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.8 - MIA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: CHC 57.3% - MIA 42.7% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -134 / MIA +134
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zebby Matthews Home: Erick Fedde
ERA: 4.58 ERA: 4.16
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 7.47 K/9: 6.42
BB/9: 2.57 BB/9: 3.28
FIP: 4.5 FIP: 5.09
IP: 112.0 IP: 123.3
xERA: 4.51 xERA: 4.66
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Zebby Matthews)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN CWS Lg Avg
Record 67-73 73-67
R/Game 4.70 4.73 4.48
RA/Game 4.97 4.45 4.48
OPS 0.729 0.724 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.63 4.14 4.17
FIP 4.11 4.10 4.04
WHIP 1.38 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.47 8.42 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.474 0.528 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.53 4.40 4.25
BP FIP 3.97 4.50 4.07
BP WHIP 1.42 1.41
BP K/9 8.82 8.13
BP Quality* 48.8 49.6 46.3
BP IP 513.0 308.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Travis Adams (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0223 (Temp: 1.0201 | Wind: 1.0021)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 5.2 - CWS 5.3
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.2 - CWS 5.3
Win Probability: MIN 49.1% - CWS 50.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +103 / CWS -103
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
MIN -1.5: 35.4%
MIN +1.5: 63.6%
CWS -1.5: 36.4%
CWS +1.5: 64.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 3.0 - CWS 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 3.0 - CWS 3.0
F5 Win Prob: MIN 50.1% - CWS 49.9% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -100 / CWS +100
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nick Martinez Home: Trevor Williams
ERA: 2.99 ERA: 3.93
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 5.33 K/9: 11.29
BB/9: 1.29 BB/9: 3.44
FIP: 3.87 FIP: 3.87
IP: 153.7 IP: 18.3
xERA: 4.3 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB TEX Lg Avg
Record 83-57 70-71
R/Game 4.49 4.10 4.48
RA/Game 4.16 4.40 4.48
OPS 0.730 0.716 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.79 4.27 4.17
FIP 3.92 4.00 4.04
WHIP 1.15 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.24 8.68 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.534 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.43 4.54 4.25
BP FIP 3.85 4.30 4.07
BP WHIP 1.12 1.40
BP K/9 8.77 8.47
BP Quality* 42.0 50.2 46.3
BP IP 399.3 492.0
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (42 pitches yesterday)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0100 (Temp: 1.0315 | Wind: 0.9791)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.8 - TEX 4.1
Simulated Avg: TB 4.8 - TEX 4.1
Win Probability: TB 57.4% - TEX 42.6%
Fair Moneyline: TB -135 / TEX +135
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
TB -1.5: 41.5%
TB +1.5: 72.9%
TEX -1.5: 27.1%
TEX +1.5: 58.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.6 - TEX 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.6 - TEX 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TB 56.3% - TEX 43.7% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -129 / TEX +129
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Merrill Kelly Home: Cristian Javier
ERA: 5.08 ERA: 6.45
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.63
K/9: 6.04 K/9: 8.46
BB/9: 4.07 BB/9: 3.83
FIP: 5.5 FIP: 4.82
IP: 141.7 IP: 44.7
xERA: 6.94 xERA: 5.16
xwOBA: 0.392 xwOBA: 0.346
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Cristian Javier)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI HOU Lg Avg
Record 74-67 72-69
R/Game 4.45 4.53 4.48
RA/Game 4.46 4.80 4.48
OPS 0.710 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.16 4.56 4.17
FIP 4.24 4.39 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.36 1.30
K/9 6.93 8.88 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.499 0.474 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.61 4.17 4.25
BP FIP 3.61 4.25 4.07
BP WHIP 1.21 1.29
BP K/9 7.60 9.10
BP Quality* 42.7 47.7 46.3
BP IP 448.7 487.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Derek Law (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0026 (Temp: 1.0143 | Wind: 0.9885)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 5.2 - HOU 5.6
Simulated Avg: ARI 5.2 - HOU 5.6
Win Probability: ARI 46.0% - HOU 54.0%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +117 / HOU -117
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
ARI -1.5: 32.3%
ARI +1.5: 60.3%
HOU -1.5: 39.7%
HOU +1.5: 67.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 3.1 - HOU 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 3.1 - HOU 3.6
F5 Win Prob: ARI 44.2% - HOU 55.8% (Tie: 12.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +126 / HOU -126
F5 Avg Total: 6.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jameson Taillon Home: Daniel Lynch IV
ERA: 5.68 ERA: 3.06
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 8.04 K/9: 6.71
BB/9: 3.43 BB/9: 2.77
FIP: 6.48 FIP: 3.59
IP: 84.0 IP: 61.7
xERA: 5.76 xERA: 4.01
xwOBA: 0.363 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: KC (Daniel Lynch IV)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR KC Lg Avg
Record 70-71 63-78
R/Game 4.01 4.30 4.48
RA/Game 4.30 4.90 4.48
OPS 0.689 0.719 0.719
wOBA 0.297 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.92 4.71 4.17
FIP 3.87 4.50 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.82 7.48 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.440 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.68 6.08 4.25
BP FIP 4.05 5.41 4.07
BP WHIP 1.31 1.64
BP K/9 8.20 7.57
BP Quality* 45.6 64.2 46.3
BP IP 281.0 477.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (30 pitches yesterday)
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0151 (Temp: 1.0329 | Wind: 0.9828)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 4.3 - KC 5.5
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.3 - KC 5.5
Win Probability: TOR 38.3% - KC 61.7%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +161 / KC -161
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
TOR -1.5: 24.8%
TOR +1.5: 53.5%
KC -1.5: 46.5%
KC +1.5: 75.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 1.9 - KC 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.9 - KC 3.5
F5 Win Prob: TOR 27.3% - KC 72.7% (Tie: 13.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +267 / KC -267
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andre Pallante Home: Ryan Feltner
ERA: 3.57 ERA: 5.84
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.55
K/9: 6.42 K/9: 6.73
BB/9: 2.71 BB/9: 3.98
FIP: 3.53 FIP: 5.36
IP: 136.0 IP: 101.7
xERA: 3.9 xERA: 5.4
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.353
Pitcher Edge: STL (Andre Pallante)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL COL Lg Avg
Record 70-71 54-86
R/Game 4.49 4.68 4.48
RA/Game 4.55 5.68 4.48
OPS 0.700 0.738 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.318 0.310
ERA 4.24 5.42 4.17
FIP 3.93 4.67 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.52 1.30
K/9 7.97 6.95 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.494 0.412 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.48 4.65 4.25
BP FIP 4.09 4.32 4.07
BP WHIP 1.37 1.52
BP K/9 8.08 7.62
BP Quality* 59.6 53.4 46.3
BP IP 496.7 284.7
Bullpen Edge: COL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +12.0)
UNAVAIL: George Soriano (B2B, 31 pitches)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Winquest (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Fernandez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jaden Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0425 (Temp: 1.0192 | Wind: 1.0229)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 6.6 - COL 6.0
Simulated Avg: STL 6.6 - COL 6.0
Win Probability: STL 54.6% - COL 45.4%
Fair Moneyline: STL -120 / COL +120
Avg Total Runs: 12.6
STL -1.5: 42.1%
STL +1.5: 66.8%
COL -1.5: 33.2%
COL +1.5: 57.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 3.9 - COL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 3.9 - COL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: STL 64.5% - COL 35.5% (Tie: 12.8%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -182 / COL +182
F5 Avg Total: 6.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Max Fried Home: Walker Buehler
ERA: 2.8 ERA: 4.66
WHIP: 1.0 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 8.3 K/9: 7.61
BB/9: 2.8 BB/9: 3.36
FIP: 2.62 FIP: 4.21
IP: 90.0 IP: 131.3
xERA: 2.5 xERA: 4.12
xwOBA: 0.246 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Max Fried)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY SD Lg Avg
Record 80-60 73-67
R/Game 4.54 4.24 4.48
RA/Game 3.72 4.17 4.48
OPS 0.720 0.702 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.24 3.94 4.17
FIP 3.53 4.05 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.03 8.22 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.590 0.508 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.09 2.87 4.25
BP FIP 3.87 3.05 4.07
BP WHIP 1.20 1.17
BP K/9 8.16 11.05
BP Quality* 40.4 36.6 46.3
BP IP 504.3 288.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: David Morgan (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9979 (Temp: 0.9984 | Wind: 0.9995)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.0 - SD 3.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.0 - SD 3.0
Win Probability: NYY 60.8% - SD 39.2%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -155 / SD +155
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
NYY -1.5: 41.9%
NYY +1.5: 78.1%
SD -1.5: 21.9%
SD +1.5: 58.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.5 - SD 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.5 - SD 1.4
F5 Win Prob: NYY 69.5% - SD 30.5% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -228 / SD +228
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jackson Kent Home: Blake Snell
ERA: 5.59 ERA: 2.42
WHIP: 1.71 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 7.91 K/9: 12.46
BB/9: 6.98 BB/9: 4.15
FIP: 4.34 FIP: 1.72
IP: 19.3 IP: 26.0
xERA: 5.33 xERA: 2.1
xwOBA: 0.351 xwOBA: 0.225
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Blake Snell)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH LAD Lg Avg
Record 67-75 83-57
R/Game 5.18 4.91 4.48
RA/Game 5.08 3.86 4.48
OPS 0.754 0.757 0.719
wOBA 0.323 0.324 0.310
ERA 4.69 3.70 4.17
FIP 4.57 3.74 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.16 1.30
K/9 7.91 9.28 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.509 0.608 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.10 4.04 4.25
BP FIP 5.12 3.85 4.07
BP WHIP 1.61 1.29
BP K/9 8.63 9.72
BP Quality* 59.4 47.0 46.3
BP IP 459.0 438.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brock Stewart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9914 (Temp: 0.9953 | Wind: 0.9960)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 4.2 - LAD 6.0
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.2 - LAD 6.0
Win Probability: WSH 34.8% - LAD 65.2%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +188 / LAD -188
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
WSH -1.5: 22.2%
WSH +1.5: 49.4%
LAD -1.5: 50.6%
LAD +1.5: 77.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 2.1 - LAD 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.1 - LAD 3.2
F5 Win Prob: WSH 33.2% - LAD 66.8% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +201 / LAD -201
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | September 04, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kade Morris Home: Logan Gilbert
ERA: 9.82 ERA: 3.42
WHIP: 2.11 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 6.14 K/9: 9.32
BB/9: 3.68 BB/9: 2.25
FIP: 6.5 FIP: 3.56
IP: 14.7 IP: 160.3
xERA: 4.54 xERA: 3.63
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.295
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Logan Gilbert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH SEA Lg Avg
Record 55-86 66-75
R/Game 4.38 3.96 4.48
RA/Game 5.74 4.45 4.48
OPS 0.725 0.686 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.299 0.310
ERA 5.44 4.20 4.17
FIP 4.73 3.84 4.04
WHIP 1.50 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.63 8.58 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.379 0.448 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.93 4.35 4.25
BP FIP 4.64 4.12 4.07
BP WHIP 1.61 1.37
BP K/9 9.17 8.58
BP Quality* 62.5 51.4 46.3
BP IP 523.3 465.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Chris Roycroft (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Scott Blewett (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Hoby Milner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carlos Vargas (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0066 (Temp: 0.9875 | Wind: 1.0193)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 3.9 - SEA 5.7
Simulated Avg: ATH 3.9 - SEA 5.8
Win Probability: ATH 32.7% - SEA 67.3%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +206 / SEA -206
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
ATH -1.5: 20.0%
ATH +1.5: 48.0%
SEA -1.5: 52.0%
SEA +1.5: 80.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 1.9 - SEA 3.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 1.9 - SEA 3.4
F5 Win Prob: ATH 28.9% - SEA 71.1% (Tie: 14.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +246 / SEA -246
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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