2026-09-05
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-05
Games: 15 | Plays: 5
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets
Regular Season | September 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Anthony Molina Home: Zac Thornton
ERA: 3.77 ERA: 2.93
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 5.65 K/9: 6.6
BB/9: 1.26 BB/9: 2.05
FIP: 4.08 FIP: 3.8
IP: 14.3 IP: 61.3
xERA: 4.42 xERA: 4.6
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF NYM Lg Avg
Record 58-84 64-77
R/Game 4.17 4.16 4.48
RA/Game 4.71 4.49 4.48
OPS 0.715 0.697 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.40 4.10 4.17
FIP 4.06 3.89 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.68 9.00 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.444 0.466 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.71 4.24 4.25
BP FIP 4.29 4.20 4.07
BP WHIP 1.49 1.36
BP K/9 7.22 9.29
BP Quality* 54.9 46.8 46.3
BP IP 395.3 278.0
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Yunior Marte (62 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Walker (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9899 (Temp: 1.0099 | Wind: 0.9801)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 3.8 - NYM 4.4
Simulated Avg: SF 3.8 - NYM 4.4
Win Probability: SF 43.6% - NYM 56.4%
Fair Moneyline: SF +129 / NYM -129
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 43.5%
Under 8.0: 46.9%
SF +1.5: 61.0%
NYM -1.5: 39.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.0 - NYM 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.0 - NYM 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SF 46.1% - NYM 53.9% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +117 / NYM -117
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +141 +129 +2.1%
NYM ML -171 -129 -6.7%
SF +1.5 -157 -157 -0.1%
NYM -1.5 +130 +157 -4.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | September 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Javier Assad Home: Ryan Gusto
ERA: 3.46 ERA: 3.86
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 5.94 K/9: 7.58
BB/9: 2.27 BB/9: 2.66
FIP: 4.88 FIP: 3.84
IP: 83.3 IP: 67.7
xERA: 4.51 xERA: 4.48
xwOBA: 0.326 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Ryan Gusto)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC MIA Lg Avg
Record 80-62 71-71
R/Game 5.35 4.34 4.48
RA/Game 4.37 4.27 4.48
OPS 0.770 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.331 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.16 3.97 4.17
FIP 4.55 3.89 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.26 1.30
K/9 7.79 8.29 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.591 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.65 4.58 4.25
BP FIP 4.62 3.93 4.07
BP WHIP 1.37 1.33
BP K/9 8.67 8.86
BP Quality* 53.2 52.7 46.3
BP IP 497.3 465.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aaron Civale (46 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jack Ralston (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradley Blalock (66 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 34%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9964 (Temp: 1.0138 | Wind: 0.9828)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 5.1 - MIA 4.5
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.1 - MIA 4.5
Win Probability: CHC 55.1% - MIA 44.9%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -123 / MIA +123
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 56.2%
Under 8.5: 43.8%
CHC -1.5: 40.0%
MIA +1.5: 60.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.7 - MIA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.7 - MIA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CHC 54.8% - MIA 45.2% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -121 / MIA +121
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -130 -123 -1.4%
MIA ML +108 +123 -3.2%
CHC -1.5 +130 +150 -3.4%
MIA +1.5 -157 -150 -1.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | September 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Martín Pérez Home: Zack Wheeler
ERA: 3.05 ERA: 3.31
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 6.77 K/9: 10.63
BB/9: 3.72 BB/9: 2.83
FIP: 4.12 FIP: 3.58
IP: 121.0 IP: 130.3
xERA: 4.54 xERA: 3.04
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL PHI Lg Avg
Record 84-57 79-62
R/Game 4.67 4.49 4.48
RA/Game 3.81 4.26 4.48
OPS 0.725 0.713 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.57 4.00 4.17
FIP 3.91 3.62 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.60 9.92 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.592 0.524 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.08 4.10 4.25
BP FIP 3.28 3.55 4.07
BP WHIP 1.15 1.31
BP K/9 9.30 10.09
BP Quality* 38.5 42.7 46.3
BP IP 370.7 469.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0317 (Temp: 1.0068 | Wind: 1.0247)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.1 - PHI 4.4
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.1 - PHI 4.4
Win Probability: ATL 47.0% - PHI 53.0%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +113 / PHI -113
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.5: 47.2%
Under 8.5: 52.8%
ATL +1.5: 63.7%
PHI -1.5: 36.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.2 - PHI 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.2 - PHI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: ATL 43.9% - PHI 56.1% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +128 / PHI -128
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML +135 +113 +4.5%
PHI ML -163 -113 -9.0%
ATL +1.5 -157 -175 +2.6%
PHI -1.5 +130 +175 -7.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | September 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Framber Valdez Home: Parker Messick
ERA: 4.36 ERA: 2.46
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.02
K/9: 6.93 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 3.4 BB/9: 2.4
FIP: 3.99 FIP: 3.03
IP: 150.7 IP: 161.0
xERA: 4.57 xERA: 2.92
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.266
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CLE Lg Avg
Record 64-77 72-70
R/Game 4.39 4.06 4.48
RA/Game 4.07 4.13 4.48
OPS 0.710 0.686 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.299 0.310
ERA 3.72 3.75 4.17
FIP 3.86 3.73 4.04
WHIP 1.23 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.22 9.43 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.534 0.493 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.44 3.65 4.25
BP FIP 4.51 3.53 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.28
BP K/9 8.31 9.96
BP Quality* 56.6 47.0 46.3
BP IP 430.0 486.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Jacob Waguespack (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Slade Cecconi (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carlos Hernández (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0267 (Temp: 0.9982 | Wind: 1.0285)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 3.5 - CLE 4.6
Simulated Avg: DET 3.5 - CLE 4.6
Win Probability: DET 38.4% - CLE 61.6%
Fair Moneyline: DET +160 / CLE -160
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.0: 52.6%
Under 7.0: 37.4%
DET +1.5: 55.9%
CLE -1.5: 44.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 1.6 - CLE 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 1.6 - CLE 2.3
F5 Win Prob: DET 36.5% - CLE 63.5% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +174 / CLE -174
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML +130 +160 -5.1%
CLE ML -157 -160 +0.5%
DET +1.5 -167 -127 -6.6%
CLE -1.5 +137 +127 +1.9%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +0.2%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -15.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | September 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Yusei Kikuchi Home: Braxton Ashcraft
ERA: 5.65 ERA: 3.59
WHIP: 1.49 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 9.21
BB/9: 3.35 BB/9: 1.96
FIP: 4.33 FIP: 3.41
IP: 43.0 IP: 160.3
xERA: 5.33 xERA: 3.42
xwOBA: 0.351 xwOBA: 0.287
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Braxton Ashcraft)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA PIT Lg Avg
Record 53-88 70-72
R/Game 4.05 4.87 4.48
RA/Game 4.62 4.66 4.48
OPS 0.677 0.733 0.719
wOBA 0.294 0.318 0.310
ERA 4.25 4.19 4.17
FIP 3.97 3.70 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.31 1.30
K/9 9.13 9.26 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.440 0.520 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.67 3.72 4.25
BP FIP 4.22 3.59 4.07
BP WHIP 1.42 1.32
BP K/9 9.17 9.60
BP Quality* 48.8 46.6 46.3
BP IP 370.0 454.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Wilber Dotel (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0070 (Temp: 1.0052 | Wind: 1.0017)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 3.5 - PIT 5.6
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.5 - PIT 5.6
Win Probability: LAA 30.4% - PIT 69.6%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +229 / PIT -229
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 7.5: 62.1%
Under 7.5: 37.9%
LAA +1.5: 45.9%
PIT -1.5: 54.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 1.8 - PIT 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.8 - PIT 3.2
F5 Win Prob: LAA 28.3% - PIT 71.7% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +253 / PIT -253
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +157 +229 -8.6%
PIT ML -191 -229 +4.0%
LAA +1.5 -144 +118 -13.1%
PIT -1.5 +119 -118 +8.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +9.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -14.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.7%
Fair ML: -164 | Kelly: 5.11%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01143
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | September 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Dustin May Home: Andrew Abbott
ERA: 4.69 ERA: 4.49
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 8.53 K/9: 6.98
BB/9: 3.15 BB/9: 4.25
FIP: 3.26 FIP: 4.81
IP: 128.7 IP: 148.3
xERA: 4.21 xERA: 5.02
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Dustin May)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL CIN Lg Avg
Record 88-54 67-74
R/Game 5.04 4.17 4.48
RA/Game 3.81 4.96 4.48
OPS 0.739 0.704 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.304 0.310
ERA 3.50 4.68 4.17
FIP 3.56 4.52 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.43 1.30
K/9 9.63 8.20 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.625 0.422 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 4.73 4.25
BP FIP 3.59 4.60 4.07
BP WHIP 1.26 1.45
BP K/9 8.86 8.75
BP Quality* 46.6 54.3 46.3
BP IP 521.3 525.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (41 pitches yesterday)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 13%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0043 (Temp: 1.0259 | Wind: 0.9789)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 6.2 - CIN 4.4
Simulated Avg: MIL 6.2 - CIN 4.4
Win Probability: MIL 64.4% - CIN 35.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -181 / CIN +181
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 9.0: 55.6%
Under 9.0: 36.2%
MIL -1.5: 50.6%
CIN +1.5: 49.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 3.4 - CIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.4 - CIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: MIL 64.7% - CIN 35.3% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -183 / CIN +183
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -157 -181 +3.3%
CIN ML +130 +181 -7.9%
MIL -1.5 +102 -103 +1.1%
CIN +1.5 -122 +103 -5.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +3.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -16.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | September 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sonny Gray Home: Chris Bassitt
ERA: 2.82 ERA: 4.97
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.58
K/9: 8.02 K/9: 6.21
BB/9: 2.32 BB/9: 3.28
FIP: 3.45 FIP: 4.28
IP: 143.7 IP: 79.7
xERA: 3.71 xERA: 5.12
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.345
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Sonny Gray)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS BAL Lg Avg
Record 77-65 69-73
R/Game 4.46 4.51 4.48
RA/Game 3.91 4.66 4.48
OPS 0.730 0.711 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.307 0.310
ERA 3.65 4.15 4.17
FIP 3.61 3.97 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.34 1.30
K/9 8.61 8.12 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.561 0.485 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.50 4.15 4.25
BP FIP 3.53 3.73 4.07
BP WHIP 1.25 1.31
BP K/9 9.24 8.83
BP Quality* 43.3 50.0 46.3
BP IP 393.7 468.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Walker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0011 (Temp: 1.0084 | Wind: 0.9927)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 5.0 - BAL 4.0
Simulated Avg: BOS 5.0 - BAL 4.0
Win Probability: BOS 59.1% - BAL 40.9%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -145 / BAL +145
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.0: 52.0%
Under 8.0: 38.8%
BOS -1.5: 43.4%
BAL +1.5: 56.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.9 - BAL 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.8 - BAL 2.1
F5 Win Prob: BOS 62.5% - BAL 37.5% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -167 / BAL +167
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -130 -145 +2.6%
BAL ML +108 +145 -7.2%
BOS -1.5 +135 +131 +0.8%
BAL +1.5 -163 -131 -5.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | September 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Drew Rasmussen Home: Jacob deGrom
ERA: 2.95 ERA: 4.0
WHIP: 0.93 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 9.16 K/9: 10.94
BB/9: 1.66 BB/9: 2.42
FIP: 2.77 FIP: 3.09
IP: 146.3 IP: 137.3
xERA: 3.13 xERA: 3.52
xwOBA: 0.275 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB TEX Lg Avg
Record 84-57 70-72
R/Game 4.50 4.11 4.48
RA/Game 4.18 4.42 4.48
OPS 0.731 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.81 4.29 4.17
FIP 3.94 4.01 4.04
WHIP 1.15 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.21 8.66 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.534 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.47 4.53 4.25
BP FIP 3.90 4.28 4.07
BP WHIP 1.12 1.40
BP K/9 8.71 8.48
BP Quality* 43.9 53.1 46.3
BP IP 402.0 494.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kumar Rocker (73 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0254 (Temp: 1.0371 | Wind: 0.9888)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.6 - TEX 3.7
Simulated Avg: TB 4.6 - TEX 3.7
Win Probability: TB 59.4% - TEX 40.6%
Fair Moneyline: TB -146 / TEX +146
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.0: 54.6%
Under 7.0: 35.5%
TB -1.5: 42.8%
TEX +1.5: 57.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.2 - TEX 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.2 - TEX 1.8
F5 Win Prob: TB 59.4% - TEX 40.6% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -146 / TEX +146
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -111 -146 +6.8%
TEX ML -108 +146 -11.3%
TB -1.5 +155 +133 +3.6%
TEX +1.5 -189 -133 -8.2%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +2.2%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -16.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | September 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Max Scherzer Home: Seth Lugo
ERA: 6.16 ERA: 5.03
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 7.26 K/9: 6.9
BB/9: 4.11 BB/9: 2.86
FIP: 5.59 FIP: 4.04
IP: 57.0 IP: 154.0
xERA: 4.21 xERA: 5.16
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.346
Pitcher Edge: KC (Seth Lugo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR KC Lg Avg
Record 71-71 63-79
R/Game 4.05 4.28 4.48
RA/Game 4.29 4.93 4.48
OPS 0.691 0.719 0.719
wOBA 0.298 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.91 4.74 4.17
FIP 3.88 4.51 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.79 7.45 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.474 0.436 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.64 6.10 4.25
BP FIP 4.04 5.42 4.07
BP WHIP 1.31 1.65
BP K/9 8.18 7.56
BP Quality* 48.4 67.3 46.3
BP IP 284.0 481.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Michael Lorenzen (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brendon Little (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Nolan Hoffman (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Easton McGee (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 98°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (98°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0343 (Temp: 1.0393 | Wind: 0.9952)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 5.0 - KC 5.2
Simulated Avg: TOR 5.0 - KC 5.2
Win Probability: TOR 47.9% - KC 52.1%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +109 / KC -109
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 9.5: 53.3%
Under 9.5: 46.7%
TOR -1.5: 33.9%
KC +1.5: 66.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.6 - KC 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.5 - KC 3.1
F5 Win Prob: TOR 42.0% - KC 58.0% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +138 / KC -138
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML -110 +109 -4.5%
KC ML -110 -109 -0.3%
TOR -1.5 +144 +195 -7.1%
KC +1.5 -174 -195 +2.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +0.9%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -5.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | September 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Taj Bradley Home: Anthony Kay
ERA: 3.85 ERA: 4.28
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 10.38 K/9: 7.44
BB/9: 3.85 BB/9: 3.23
FIP: 3.85 FIP: 4.33
IP: 154.3 IP: 136.7
xERA: 3.92 xERA: 4.92
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.339
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Taj Bradley)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN CWS Lg Avg
Record 67-74 74-67
R/Game 4.67 4.72 4.48
RA/Game 4.96 4.43 4.48
OPS 0.728 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.63 4.12 4.17
FIP 4.12 4.10 4.04
WHIP 1.37 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.47 8.40 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.472 0.530 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.50 4.37 4.25
BP FIP 3.95 4.47 4.07
BP WHIP 1.42 1.40
BP K/9 8.83 8.17
BP Quality* 48.7 49.2 46.3
BP IP 516.0 310.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0576 (Temp: 1.0006 | Wind: 1.0569)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 5.2 - CWS 5.0
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.2 - CWS 5.0
Win Probability: MIN 51.9% - CWS 48.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -108 / CWS +108
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 8.0: 61.1%
Under 8.0: 30.7%
MIN +1.5: 66.6%
CWS -1.5: 33.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 3.0 - CWS 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 3.0 - CWS 2.6
F5 Win Prob: MIN 55.1% - CWS 44.9% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -123 / CWS +123
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML +102 -108 +2.4%
CWS ML -123 +108 -7.0%
MIN +1.5 -204 -200 -0.5%
CWS -1.5 +167 +200 -4.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +8.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -21.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.7%
Fair ML: -157 | Kelly: 4.59%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01144
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | September 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Pfaadt Home: Ethan Pecko
ERA: 3.49 ERA: 6.23
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.54
K/9: 5.92 K/9: 6.23
BB/9: 2.19 BB/9: 6.23
FIP: 4.04 FIP: 7.79
IP: 111.0 IP: 13.0
xERA: 3.76 xERA: 7.29
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.4
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Brandon Pfaadt)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI HOU Lg Avg
Record 74-68 73-69
R/Game 4.43 4.52 4.48
RA/Game 4.45 4.77 4.48
OPS 0.708 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.15 4.53 4.17
FIP 4.23 4.39 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.36 1.30
K/9 6.93 8.91 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.498 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.59 4.14 4.25
BP FIP 3.60 4.25 4.07
BP WHIP 1.21 1.29
BP K/9 7.61 9.12
BP Quality* 42.5 53.6 46.3
BP IP 450.7 491.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Derek Law (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Bennett Sousa (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 32%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0171 (Temp: 1.0167 | Wind: 1.0005)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 5.3 - HOU 4.3
Simulated Avg: ARI 5.3 - HOU 4.3
Win Probability: ARI 59.6% - HOU 40.4%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -148 / HOU +148
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 9.0: 48.1%
Under 9.0: 43.2%
ARI -1.5: 44.5%
HOU +1.5: 55.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 3.1 - HOU 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 3.1 - HOU 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ARI 61.2% - HOU 38.9% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -157 / HOU +157
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -108 -148 +7.7%
HOU ML -112 +148 -12.5%
ARI -1.5 +148 +125 +4.1%
HOU +1.5 -179 -125 -8.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -9.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | September 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Carlos Rodón Home: Robbie Ray
ERA: 3.2 ERA: 3.14
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 9.61 K/9: 7.61
BB/9: 4.73 BB/9: 4.41
FIP: 3.64 FIP: 4.62
IP: 59.0 IP: 149.0
xERA: 4.06 xERA: 4.63
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Carlos Rodón)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY SD Lg Avg
Record 80-61 74-67
R/Game 4.52 4.23 4.48
RA/Game 3.72 4.16 4.48
OPS 0.719 0.700 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.302 0.310
ERA 3.23 3.91 4.17
FIP 3.53 4.03 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.01 8.26 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.589 0.509 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.10 2.83 4.25
BP FIP 3.88 3.00 4.07
BP WHIP 1.20 1.16
BP K/9 8.17 11.14
BP Quality* 42.0 34.6 46.3
BP IP 505.7 292.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0305 (Temp: 1.0150 | Wind: 1.0152)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.0 - SD 3.8
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.0 - SD 3.8
Win Probability: NYY 51.7% - SD 48.3%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -107 / SD +107
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.5: 49.7%
Under 7.5: 50.3%
NYY +1.5: 69.0%
SD -1.5: 31.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.5 - SD 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.5 - SD 2.1
F5 Win Prob: NYY 57.4% - SD 42.6% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -135 / SD +135
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML +109 -107 +3.9%
SD ML -131 +107 -8.4%
NYY +1.5 -198 -223 +2.6%
SD -1.5 +162 +223 -7.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -2.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -2.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | September 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Matthew Liberatore Home: Mason Adams
ERA: 5.41 ERA: 3.0
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 9.42 K/9: 10.0
BB/9: 3.14 BB/9: 5.0
FIP: 4.47 FIP: 5.43
IP: 134.7 IP: 9.0
xERA: 4.92 xERA: 5.09
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.344
Pitcher Edge: STL (Matthew Liberatore)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL COL Lg Avg
Record 71-71 54-87
R/Game 4.51 4.69 4.48
RA/Game 4.56 5.69 4.48
OPS 0.701 0.741 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.318 0.310
ERA 4.25 5.43 4.17
FIP 3.95 4.66 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.51 1.30
K/9 7.94 6.95 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.494 0.412 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.53 4.66 4.25
BP FIP 4.12 4.35 4.07
BP WHIP 1.37 1.51
BP K/9 8.07 7.59
BP Quality* 56.9 52.0 46.3
BP IP 500.7 288.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Riley O'Brien (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Winquest (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0134 (Temp: 1.0220 | Wind: 0.9915)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 6.0 - COL 6.6
Simulated Avg: STL 6.0 - COL 6.6
Win Probability: STL 44.9% - COL 55.1%
Fair Moneyline: STL +123 / COL -123
Avg Total Runs: 12.6
Over 11.0: 55.2%
Under 11.0: 37.6%
STL -1.5: 33.0%
COL +1.5: 67.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 3.4 - COL 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 3.4 - COL 3.6
F5 Win Prob: STL 48.1% - COL 51.9% (Tie: 12.7%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +108 / COL -108
F5 Avg Total: 7.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML -126 +123 -10.8%
COL ML +104 -123 +6.1%
STL -1.5 +124 +203 -11.7%
COL +1.5 -149 -203 +7.2%
O 11.0 -110 N/A +2.9%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -14.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line) [-149]
Model: 67.0% | Market: 59.8% | Edge: 7.2%
Fair ML: -203 | Kelly: 4.49%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01145
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | September 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cade Cavalli Home: Tyler Glasnow
ERA: 3.12 ERA: 2.79
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 0.81
K/9: 10.43 K/9: 10.8
BB/9: 2.71 BB/9: 2.44
FIP: 3.13 FIP: 2.77
IP: 152.7 IP: 51.7
xERA: 3.84 xERA: 2.44
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.243
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tyler Glasnow)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH LAD Lg Avg
Record 67-76 84-57
R/Game 5.16 4.91 4.48
RA/Game 5.08 3.85 4.48
OPS 0.754 0.756 0.719
wOBA 0.323 0.324 0.310
ERA 4.69 3.69 4.17
FIP 4.57 3.72 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.16 1.30
K/9 7.89 9.29 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.609 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.08 4.08 4.25
BP FIP 5.13 3.82 4.07
BP WHIP 1.60 1.29
BP K/9 8.59 9.74
BP Quality* 59.3 49.9 46.3
BP IP 462.0 441.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Stewart (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0030 (Temp: 1.0062 | Wind: 0.9969)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 4.0 - LAD 4.9
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.0 - LAD 4.9
Win Probability: WSH 41.4% - LAD 58.6%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +142 / LAD -142
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 7.0: 59.9%
Under 7.0: 31.1%
WSH +1.5: 57.7%
LAD -1.5: 42.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 1.8 - LAD 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 1.8 - LAD 2.2
F5 Win Prob: WSH 42.1% - LAD 57.9% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +137 / LAD -137
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +183 +142 +6.0%
LAD ML -225 -142 -10.6%
WSH +1.5 -126 -136 +1.9%
LAD -1.5 +104 +136 -6.7%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +7.5%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -21.2%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.94%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01146
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | September 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jeffrey Springs Home: George Kirby
ERA: 6.37 ERA: 4.19
WHIP: 1.5 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 7.17 K/9: 7.55
BB/9: 3.66 BB/9: 2.12
FIP: 6.21 FIP: 3.75
IP: 123.0 IP: 152.7
xERA: 4.92 xERA: 3.95
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.307
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH SEA Lg Avg
Record 56-86 66-76
R/Game 4.40 3.98 4.48
RA/Game 5.74 4.46 4.48
OPS 0.727 0.687 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.300 0.310
ERA 5.45 4.22 4.17
FIP 4.74 3.87 4.04
WHIP 1.50 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.58 8.60 8.47
Pythag Win% 0.381 0.447 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.97 4.31 4.25
BP FIP 4.65 4.11 4.07
BP WHIP 1.61 1.37
BP K/9 9.10 8.54
BP Quality* 62.7 51.3 46.3
BP IP 529.3 470.0
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Hogan Harris (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Brady Basso (38 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Geoff Hartlieb (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cooper Criswell (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9790 (Temp: 0.9911 | Wind: 0.9878)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.0 - SEA 5.1
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.0 - SEA 5.1
Win Probability: ATH 39.3% - SEA 60.7%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +154 / SEA -154
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 7.5: 61.9%
Under 7.5: 38.1%
ATH +1.5: 55.5%
SEA -1.5: 44.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.1 - SEA 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.1 - SEA 2.9
F5 Win Prob: ATH 37.7% - SEA 62.3% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +165 / SEA -165
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +202 +154 +6.2%
SEA ML -250 -154 -10.7%
ATH +1.5 -106 -125 +4.1%
SEA -1.5 -113 +125 -8.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +9.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -14.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.5%
Fair ML: -163 | Kelly: 5.01%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01147