2026-09-06
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-06
Games: 15 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | September 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Harrison Home: Brady Singer
ERA: 3.45 ERA: 4.83
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 10.93 K/9: 7.43
BB/9: 2.44 BB/9: 2.86
FIP: 3.79 FIP: 4.79
IP: 107.0 IP: 141.7
xERA: 3.52 xERA: 5.02
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Kyle Harrison)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL CIN Lg Avg
Record 88-55 68-74
R/Game 5.02 4.18 4.48
RA/Game 3.82 4.94 4.48
OPS 0.739 0.706 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.51 4.66 4.17
FIP 3.57 4.51 4.04
WHIP 1.18 1.43 1.31
K/9 9.66 8.24 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.623 0.423 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.36 4.70 4.25
BP FIP 3.51 4.58 4.07
BP WHIP 1.25 1.45
BP K/9 9.14 8.82
BP Quality* 42.9 54.1 46.3
BP IP 490.3 530.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: DL Hall (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Andrew Vaughn, Gary Sánchez, William Contreras
Andrew Vaughn First Base OPS: 0.859 (265 AB)
Gary Sánchez Catcher OPS: 0.786 (203 AB)
William Contreras Catcher OPS: 0.747 (509 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.6% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Spencer Steer, Blake Dunn
Spencer Steer First Base OPS: 0.740 (340 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0577 (Temp: 1.0125 | Wind: 1.0446)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 6.0 - CIN 4.1
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.9 - CIN 4.1
Win Probability: MIL 65.7% - CIN 34.3%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -191 / CIN +191
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 8.5: 60.4%
Under 8.5: 39.6%
MIL -1.5: 51.5%
CIN +1.5: 48.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 3.4 - CIN 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.4 - CIN 2.2
F5 Win Prob: MIL 66.6% - CIN 33.4% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -200 / CIN +200
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -143 -191 +6.8%
CIN ML +119 +191 -11.4%
MIL -1.5 +113 -106 +4.5%
CIN +1.5 -136 +106 -9.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +8.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -12.8%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.19%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01148
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | September 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Mahle Home: Aaron Nola
ERA: 4.25 ERA: 4.93
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 8.71 K/9: 9.55
BB/9: 3.02 BB/9: 3.1
FIP: 3.94 FIP: 4.82
IP: 125.0 IP: 148.0
xERA: 4.18 xERA: 4.09
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Tyler Mahle)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL PHI Lg Avg
Record 84-58 80-62
R/Game 4.65 4.49 4.48
RA/Game 3.81 4.24 4.48
OPS 0.724 0.713 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.307 0.310
ERA 3.58 3.98 4.17
FIP 3.92 3.62 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.59 9.94 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.590 0.526 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.06 4.10 4.25
BP FIP 3.27 3.56 4.07
BP WHIP 1.14 1.30
BP K/9 9.24 10.08
BP Quality* 38.3 42.7 46.3
BP IP 374.0 472.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ray Kerr (35 pitches yesterday)
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Lane Thomas, Dominic Smith
Lane Thomas Outfielder OPS: 0.708 (323 AB)
Dominic Smith Designated Hitter OPS: 0.696 (260 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.0% of full strength
PHI (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Bryan De La Cruz, Derek Hill
Bryan De La Cruz Outfielder OPS: 0.878 (51 AB)
Derek Hill Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (183 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0379 (Temp: 1.0068 | Wind: 1.0310)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 4.8 - PHI 4.2
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.9 - PHI 4.2
Win Probability: ATL 55.9% - PHI 44.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -127 / PHI +127
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.0: 52.3%
Under 8.0: 38.4%
ATL -1.5: 40.3%
PHI +1.5: 59.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.9 - PHI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.9 - PHI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: ATL 56.7% - PHI 43.3% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -131 / PHI +131
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML -110 -127 +3.5%
PHI ML -110 +127 -8.3%
ATL -1.5 +153 +148 +0.8%
PHI +1.5 -187 -148 -5.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | September 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Payton Tolle Home: Kyle Bradish
ERA: 3.23 ERA: 4.01
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 10.1 K/9: 8.33
BB/9: 2.54 BB/9: 3.89
FIP: 3.19 FIP: 4.04
IP: 131.0 IP: 148.0
xERA: 2.73 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.257 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS BAL Lg Avg
Record 78-65 69-74
R/Game 4.47 4.48 4.48
RA/Game 3.88 4.66 4.48
OPS 0.729 0.710 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.307 0.310
ERA 3.62 4.16 4.17
FIP 3.60 3.96 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.62 8.13 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.564 0.481 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.48 4.16 4.25
BP FIP 3.53 3.72 4.07
BP WHIP 1.25 1.31
BP K/9 9.24 8.85
BP Quality* 43.3 45.5 46.3
BP IP 395.3 472.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Albert Suárez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Willson Contreras, Curtis Mead, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, Masataka Yoshida, Anthony Seigler
Willson Contreras First Base OPS: 0.900 (434 AB)
Curtis Mead Second Base OPS: 0.851 (285 AB)
Wilyer Abreu Outfielder OPS: 0.799 (535 AB)
Ceddanne Rafaela Outfielder OPS: 0.760 (535 AB)
Masataka Yoshida Designated Hitter OPS: 0.746 (263 AB)
Anthony Seigler Second Base OPS: 0.736 (148 AB)
Run Adjustment: 83.5% of full strength
BAL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Samuel Basallo, Luis Robert Jr., Dylan Beavers
Samuel Basallo Catcher OPS: 0.713 (328 AB)
Luis Robert Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.707 (204 AB)
Dylan Beavers Outfielder OPS: 0.706 (257 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0449 (Temp: 1.0154 | Wind: 1.0290)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 3.8 - BAL 3.8
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.9 - BAL 3.8
Win Probability: BOS 50.6% - BAL 49.4%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -103 / BAL +103
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.0: 48.2%
Under 7.0: 41.6%
BOS -1.5: 33.2%
BAL +1.5: 66.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.2 - BAL 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.2 - BAL 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BOS 56.1% - BAL 43.9% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -128 / BAL +128
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -135 -103 -6.8%
BAL ML +112 +103 +2.2%
BOS -1.5 +128 +201 -10.6%
BAL +1.5 -155 -201 +6.0%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -4.2%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -10.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | September 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Walbert Ureña Home: Paul Skenes
ERA: 2.85 ERA: 3.97
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 8.76 K/9: 10.76
BB/9: 4.67 BB/9: 2.65
FIP: 3.55 FIP: 2.89
IP: 123.3 IP: 149.7
xERA: 3.4 xERA: 3.23
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: 0.279
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA PIT Lg Avg
Record 54-88 70-73
R/Game 4.06 4.85 4.48
RA/Game 4.60 4.67 4.48
OPS 0.678 0.733 0.719
wOBA 0.294 0.318 0.310
ERA 4.23 4.21 4.17
FIP 3.97 3.68 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.31 1.31
K/9 9.13 9.29 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.444 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.66 3.75 4.25
BP FIP 4.24 3.57 4.07
BP WHIP 1.42 1.32
BP K/9 9.17 9.60
BP Quality* 50.4 46.6 46.3
BP IP 373.0 458.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Isaac Mattson (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0467 (Temp: 1.0031 | Wind: 1.0434)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 3.6 - PIT 4.7
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.6 - PIT 4.7
Win Probability: LAA 39.0% - PIT 61.1%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +157 / PIT -157
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 7.0: 54.2%
Under 7.0: 35.9%
LAA +1.5: 56.1%
PIT -1.5: 43.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 1.8 - PIT 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.8 - PIT 2.2
F5 Win Prob: LAA 41.8% - PIT 58.2% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +139 / PIT -139
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +163 +157 +0.9%
PIT ML -198 -157 -5.4%
LAA +1.5 -137 -128 -1.7%
PIT -1.5 +114 +128 -2.9%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +1.8%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -16.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | September 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jackson Jobe Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 4.63 ERA: 3.81
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 7.33 K/9: 11.98
BB/9: 3.86 BB/9: 2.76
FIP: 4.99 FIP: 3.51
IP: 23.3 IP: 163.0
xERA: 5.65 xERA: 3.84
xwOBA: 0.36 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Gavin Williams)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET CLE Lg Avg
Record 65-77 72-71
R/Game 4.40 4.03 4.48
RA/Game 4.04 4.14 4.48
OPS 0.712 0.685 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.298 0.310
ERA 3.69 3.76 4.17
FIP 3.85 3.73 4.04
WHIP 1.23 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.18 9.48 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.539 0.488 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.42 3.68 4.25
BP FIP 4.51 3.51 4.07
BP WHIP 1.35 1.28
BP K/9 8.27 9.97
BP Quality* 50.5 47.0 46.3
BP IP 432.0 489.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Beau Brieske (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Austin Peterson (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Eduardo Valencia, Gleyber Torres, Spencer Torkelson
Eduardo Valencia Designated Hitter OPS: 0.924 (88 AB)
Gleyber Torres Second Base OPS: 0.755 (315 AB)
Spencer Torkelson First Base OPS: 0.724 (474 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.4% of full strength
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Chase DeLauter, José Ramírez, Austin Hedges, Kyle Manzardo
Chase DeLauter Outfielder OPS: 0.823 (445 AB)
José Ramírez Third Base OPS: 0.708 (405 AB)
Austin Hedges Catcher OPS: 0.688 (191 AB)
Kyle Manzardo First Base OPS: 0.684 (312 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0590 (Temp: 1.0051 | Wind: 1.0537)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 3.8 - CLE 4.0
Simulated Avg: DET 3.8 - CLE 4.0
Win Probability: DET 47.7% - CLE 52.3%
Fair Moneyline: DET +110 / CLE -110
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.0: 50.2%
Under 7.0: 39.4%
DET +1.5: 65.6%
CLE -1.5: 34.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.0 - CLE 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.0 - CLE 2.1
F5 Win Prob: DET 49.2% - CLE 50.8% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +103 / CLE -103
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +141 +110 +6.2%
CLE ML -171 -110 -10.8%
DET +1.5 -162 -191 +3.8%
CLE -1.5 +134 +191 -8.4%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -2.2%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -13.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets
Regular Season | September 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cesar Perdomo Home: Christian Scott
ERA: 2.25 ERA: 3.8
WHIP: 1.0 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 10.74
BB/9: 2.25 BB/9: 4.18
FIP: 5.1 FIP: 3.48
IP: 4.0 IP: 94.7
xERA: 4.33 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Christian Scott)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF NYM Lg Avg
Record 59-84 64-78
R/Game 4.20 4.17 4.48
RA/Game 4.71 4.52 4.48
OPS 0.718 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.39 4.13 4.17
FIP 4.06 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.31 1.31
K/9 7.69 9.00 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.448 0.463 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.69 4.28 4.25
BP FIP 4.34 4.27 4.07
BP WHIP 1.48 1.35
BP K/9 7.12 9.22
BP Quality* 53.5 50.2 46.3
BP IP 439.7 282.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Harris (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Jefry Yan (B2B, 25 pitches)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jared Young, Francisco Alvarez
Jared Young First Base OPS: 0.761 (277 AB)
Francisco Alvarez Catcher OPS: 0.722 (324 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.7% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0390 (Temp: 1.0024 | Wind: 1.0365)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 4.0 - NYM 4.2
Simulated Avg: SF 4.1 - NYM 4.2
Win Probability: SF 48.0% - NYM 52.0%
Fair Moneyline: SF +108 / NYM -108
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 44.7%
Under 8.0: 45.3%
SF +1.5: 65.0%
NYM -1.5: 35.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 2.1 - NYM 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.1 - NYM 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SF 49.2% - NYM 50.8% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +103 / NYM -103
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +134 +108 +5.2%
NYM ML -162 -108 -9.8%
SF +1.5 -162 -185 +3.1%
NYM -1.5 +134 +185 -7.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | September 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Clay Holmes Home: Tyler Phillips
ERA: 2.09 ERA: 3.43
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 6.94 K/9: 7.34
BB/9: 2.98 BB/9: 3.83
FIP: 3.19 FIP: 4.4
IP: 81.7 IP: 110.3
xERA: 3.9 xERA: 4.63
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Clay Holmes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC MIA Lg Avg
Record 81-62 71-72
R/Game 5.35 4.34 4.48
RA/Game 4.38 4.29 4.48
OPS 0.772 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.332 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.17 3.99 4.17
FIP 4.57 3.90 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.26 1.31
K/9 7.78 8.30 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.591 0.506 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.65 4.56 4.25
BP FIP 4.65 3.93 4.07
BP WHIP 1.37 1.33
BP K/9 8.67 8.85
BP Quality* 53.4 49.6 46.3
BP IP 501.7 469.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dax Fulton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tyrone Taylor, Matt Shaw
Tyrone Taylor Outfielder OPS: 0.848 (194 AB)
Matt Shaw Outfielder OPS: 0.781 (145 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.1% of full strength
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 33%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9919 (Temp: 1.0185 | Wind: 0.9739)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 4.7 - MIA 3.8
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.7 - MIA 3.8
Win Probability: CHC 59.5% - MIA 40.6%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -147 / MIA +147
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 46.8%
Under 8.0: 43.9%
CHC -1.5: 43.0%
MIA +1.5: 57.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.6 - MIA 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.6 - MIA 1.7
F5 Win Prob: CHC 65.8% - MIA 34.2% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -193 / MIA +193
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML -150 -147 -0.5%
MIA ML +124 +147 -4.1%
CHC -1.5 +113 +132 -3.9%
MIA +1.5 -136 -132 -0.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | September 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eduardo Rodriguez Home: Peter Lambert
ERA: 2.59 ERA: 3.66
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 6.57 K/9: 8.89
BB/9: 2.96 BB/9: 3.8
FIP: 3.72 FIP: 3.67
IP: 167.0 IP: 132.7
xERA: 4.45 xERA: 3.6
xwOBA: 0.324 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI HOU Lg Avg
Record 75-68 73-70
R/Game 4.43 4.51 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 4.77 4.48
OPS 0.708 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.14 4.52 4.17
FIP 4.21 4.38 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.35 1.31
K/9 6.94 8.90 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.499 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.57 4.11 4.25
BP FIP 3.57 4.24 4.07
BP WHIP 1.20 1.28
BP K/9 7.67 9.11
BP Quality* 40.7 53.4 46.3
BP IP 454.3 497.0
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Lars Nootbaar, Ryan Waldschmidt
Lars Nootbaar Designated Hitter OPS: 0.715 (231 AB)
Ryan Waldschmidt Outfielder OPS: 0.709 (233 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.7% of full strength
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 25%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0294 (Temp: 1.0245 | Wind: 1.0049)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.3 - HOU 4.2
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.3 - HOU 4.2
Win Probability: ARI 50.4% - HOU 49.6%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -102 / HOU +102
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 46.5%
Under 8.0: 44.0%
ARI -1.5: 34.1%
HOU +1.5: 65.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.1 - HOU 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.1 - HOU 2.3
F5 Win Prob: ARI 46.2% - HOU 53.8% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +116 / HOU -116
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -108 -102 -1.5%
HOU ML -112 +102 -3.3%
ARI -1.5 +155 +193 -5.1%
HOU +1.5 -189 -193 +0.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | September 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Spencer Arrighetti Home: Randy Dobnak
ERA: 4.82 ERA: 2.65
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 8.82 K/9: 6.24
BB/9: 5.0 BB/9: 3.59
FIP: 4.78 FIP: 4.04
IP: 99.0 IP: 57.7
xERA: 5.16 xERA: 4.79
xwOBA: 0.346 xwOBA: 0.335
Pitcher Edge: KC (Randy Dobnak)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR KC Lg Avg
Record 72-71 63-80
R/Game 4.05 4.27 4.48
RA/Game 4.28 4.92 4.48
OPS 0.691 0.718 0.719
wOBA 0.298 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.90 4.72 4.17
FIP 3.88 4.50 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.40 1.31
K/9 8.76 7.42 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.475 0.436 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.61 6.05 4.25
BP FIP 4.03 5.40 4.07
BP WHIP 1.30 1.65
BP K/9 8.14 7.55
BP Quality* 48.2 62.6 46.3
BP IP 286.3 485.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jac Caglianone, Tyler Tolbert, Michael Massey, Carter Jensen, Maikel Garcia
Jac Caglianone Outfielder OPS: 0.825 (474 AB)
Tyler Tolbert Shortstop OPS: 0.798 (115 AB)
Michael Massey Second Base OPS: 0.758 (354 AB)
Carter Jensen Catcher OPS: 0.755 (466 AB)
Maikel Garcia Third Base OPS: 0.709 (283 AB)
Run Adjustment: 87.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 99°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Hot (99°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0571 (Temp: 1.0399 | Wind: 1.0165)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 4.6 - KC 4.5
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.6 - KC 4.5
Win Probability: TOR 51.1% - KC 48.9%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -105 / KC +105
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 9.5: 43.7%
Under 9.5: 56.3%
TOR -1.5: 35.2%
KC +1.5: 64.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.2 - KC 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.2 - KC 2.6
F5 Win Prob: TOR 43.7% - KC 56.3% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +129 / KC -129
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML -123 -105 -4.0%
KC ML +102 +105 -0.6%
TOR -1.5 +128 +184 -8.7%
KC +1.5 -155 -184 +4.0%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -8.7%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +3.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | September 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ian Seymour Home: MacKenzie Gore
ERA: 4.21 ERA: 4.31
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 10.96 K/9: 9.83
BB/9: 2.54 BB/9: 3.49
FIP: 3.81 FIP: 3.59
IP: 113.3 IP: 154.7
xERA: 3.45 xERA: 3.84
xwOBA: 0.288 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB TEX Lg Avg
Record 85-57 70-73
R/Game 4.51 4.10 4.48
RA/Game 4.17 4.43 4.48
OPS 0.732 0.715 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.80 4.29 4.17
FIP 3.94 4.02 4.04
WHIP 1.15 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.21 8.66 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.536 0.466 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.49 4.56 4.25
BP FIP 3.91 4.31 4.07
BP WHIP 1.12 1.40
BP K/9 8.71 8.45
BP Quality* 47.0 54.8 46.3
BP IP 405.0 497.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Tyler Wells (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adam Macko (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 98°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (98°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0277 (Temp: 1.0393 | Wind: 0.9888)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 5.0 - TEX 4.3
Simulated Avg: TB 5.0 - TEX 4.3
Win Probability: TB 55.9% - TEX 44.1%
Fair Moneyline: TB -127 / TEX +127
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 7.5: 63.3%
Under 7.5: 36.7%
TB -1.5: 40.3%
TEX +1.5: 59.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.5 - TEX 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.5 - TEX 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TB 54.2% - TEX 45.8% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -118 / TEX +118
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -110 -127 +3.5%
TEX ML -110 +127 -8.3%
TB -1.5 +157 +148 +1.3%
TEX +1.5 -192 -148 -6.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +10.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -15.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01149
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | September 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Leahy Home: Tanner Gordon
ERA: 3.13 ERA: 5.18
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 8.21 K/9: 7.31
BB/9: 2.64 BB/9: 1.62
FIP: 3.46 FIP: 4.51
IP: 129.3 IP: 88.7
xERA: 4.79 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: STL (Kyle Leahy)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL COL Lg Avg
Record 71-72 55-87
R/Game 4.52 4.73 4.48
RA/Game 4.60 5.70 4.48
OPS 0.702 0.740 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.318 0.310
ERA 4.29 5.44 4.17
FIP 3.94 4.66 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.52 1.31
K/9 7.93 6.99 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.492 0.415 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.59 4.71 4.25
BP FIP 4.12 4.27 4.07
BP WHIP 1.38 1.50
BP K/9 8.07 7.58
BP Quality* 55.6 53.2 46.3
BP IP 504.3 282.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Hancel Rincon (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Brycen Mautz (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Winquest (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0429 (Temp: 1.0287 | Wind: 1.0138)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 6.0 - COL 6.0
Simulated Avg: STL 6.0 - COL 6.0
Win Probability: STL 50.0% - COL 50.0%
Fair Moneyline: STL +100 / COL -100
Avg Total Runs: 12.0
Over 11.0: 50.7%
Under 11.0: 41.9%
STL -1.5: 37.2%
COL +1.5: 62.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 3.3 - COL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 3.3 - COL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: STL 55.4% - COL 44.6% (Tie: 13.5%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -124 / COL +124
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML -136 +100 -7.6%
COL ML +113 -100 +3.1%
STL -1.5 +113 +169 -9.7%
COL +1.5 -136 -169 +5.2%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -1.7%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -10.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | September 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gage Jump Home: Bryan Woo
ERA: 5.15 ERA: 4.25
WHIP: 1.49 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 9.62 K/9: 9.04
BB/9: 4.37 BB/9: 1.88
FIP: 3.82 FIP: 3.3
IP: 92.7 IP: 148.3
xERA: 4.54 xERA: 3.65
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryan Woo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH SEA Lg Avg
Record 57-86 66-77
R/Game 4.41 3.97 4.48
RA/Game 5.71 4.48 4.48
OPS 0.728 0.686 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.299 0.310
ERA 5.42 4.23 4.17
FIP 4.72 3.87 4.04
WHIP 1.50 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.59 8.59 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.384 0.445 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATH SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.98 4.33 4.25
BP FIP 4.64 4.13 4.07
BP WHIP 1.61 1.37
BP K/9 9.11 8.54
BP Quality* 61.2 48.4 46.3
BP IP 531.3 472.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Geoff Hartlieb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Carlos Vargas (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0288 (Temp: 0.9957 | Wind: 1.0333)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATH 4.0 - SEA 4.6
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.0 - SEA 4.5
Win Probability: ATH 44.2% - SEA 55.8%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +126 / SEA -126
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.0: 56.8%
Under 7.0: 33.7%
ATH +1.5: 61.0%
SEA -1.5: 39.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATH 2.1 - SEA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.0 - SEA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: ATH 45.7% - SEA 54.3% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +119 / SEA -119
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATH ML +167 +126 +6.7%
SEA ML -205 -126 -11.4%
ATH +1.5 -135 -157 +3.6%
SEA -1.5 +112 +157 -8.2%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +4.5%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -18.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | September 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gerrit Cole Home: Michael King
ERA: 3.29 ERA: 3.11
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 9.52 K/9: 7.83
BB/9: 1.9 BB/9: 3.5
FIP: 3.24 FIP: 3.97
IP: 104.0 IP: 162.0
xERA: 3.4 xERA: 4.36
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Gerrit Cole)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY SD Lg Avg
Record 81-61 74-68
R/Game 4.53 4.21 4.48
RA/Game 3.70 4.16 4.48
OPS 0.718 0.699 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.302 0.310
ERA 3.22 3.92 4.17
FIP 3.53 4.03 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.29 1.31
K/9 9.03 8.25 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.592 0.505 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.07 2.80 4.25
BP FIP 3.88 2.99 4.07
BP WHIP 1.20 1.15
BP K/9 8.19 11.08
BP Quality* 40.4 35.9 46.3
BP IP 509.7 295.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Griffin Canning (36 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), wind out (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0851 (Temp: 1.0301 | Wind: 1.0534)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.0 - SD 3.7
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.0 - SD 3.7
Win Probability: NYY 53.0% - SD 47.0%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -113 / SD +113
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.0: 48.9%
Under 7.0: 40.6%
NYY -1.5: 35.5%
SD +1.5: 64.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.4 - SD 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.4 - SD 2.0
F5 Win Prob: NYY 58.7% - SD 41.3% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -142 / SD +142
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -114 -113 -0.3%
SD ML -105 +113 -4.2%
NYY -1.5 +153 +182 -4.0%
SD +1.5 -186 -182 -0.5%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -3.5%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -11.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | September 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bailey Ober Home: Bryan Hudson
ERA: 4.37 ERA: 3.03
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 6.27 K/9: 8.34
BB/9: 2.46 BB/9: 2.58
FIP: 4.59 FIP: 2.98
IP: 113.3 IP: 59.3
xERA: 4.63 xERA: 2.95
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.267
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Bryan Hudson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN CWS Lg Avg
Record 68-74 74-68
R/Game 4.68 4.72 4.48
RA/Game 4.96 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.728 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.62 4.13 4.17
FIP 4.12 4.10 4.04
WHIP 1.37 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.49 8.37 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.474 0.528 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 4.33 4.25
BP FIP 3.92 4.46 4.07
BP WHIP 1.41 1.39
BP K/9 8.86 8.12
BP Quality* 46.8 52.0 46.3
BP IP 520.0 313.7
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Schweitzer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0513 (Temp: 1.0013 | Wind: 1.0499)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.3 - CWS 5.3
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.3 - CWS 5.3
Win Probability: MIN 40.1% - CWS 60.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +150 / CWS -150
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 56.6%
Under 8.5: 43.4%
MIN +1.5: 55.4%
CWS -1.5: 44.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 1.9 - CWS 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 1.9 - CWS 3.0
F5 Win Prob: MIN 32.6% - CWS 67.4% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +206 / CWS -206
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +124 +150 -4.6%
CWS ML -150 -150 -0.0%
MIN +1.5 -170 -124 -7.5%
CWS -1.5 +140 +124 +2.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | September 06, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Alvarez Home: Justin Wrobleski
ERA: 3.47 ERA: 3.65
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 8.54 K/9: 7.29
BB/9: 4.07 BB/9: 2.03
FIP: 3.28 FIP: 4.18
IP: 90.7 IP: 128.3
xERA: 4.36 xERA: 4.66
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Andrew Alvarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH LAD Lg Avg
Record 67-77 85-57
R/Game 5.16 4.92 4.48
RA/Game 5.08 3.86 4.48
OPS 0.754 0.756 0.719
wOBA 0.323 0.324 0.310
ERA 4.70 3.70 4.17
FIP 4.56 3.70 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.17 1.31
K/9 7.92 9.32 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.609 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.13 4.07 4.25
BP FIP 5.16 3.79 4.07
BP WHIP 1.60 1.29
BP K/9 8.61 9.78
BP Quality* 61.1 49.8 46.3
BP IP 464.0 444.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jack Sinclair (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Evan Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0083 (Temp: 1.0037 | Wind: 1.0045)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 5.1 - LAD 5.2
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.1 - LAD 5.2
Win Probability: WSH 48.8% - LAD 51.2%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +105 / LAD -105
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 8.0: 63.0%
Under 8.0: 29.1%
WSH +1.5: 63.1%
LAD -1.5: 36.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.8 - LAD 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.8 - LAD 2.4
F5 Win Prob: WSH 56.4% - LAD 43.6% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -129 / LAD +129
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +168 +105 +11.5%
LAD ML -205 -105 -16.0%
WSH +1.5 -126 -171 +7.4%
LAD -1.5 +104 +171 -12.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +10.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -23.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01150