2026-09-07
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-07
Games: 11 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | September 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Grant Holmes Home: Jesús Luzardo
ERA: 3.62 ERA: 3.02
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 7.11 K/9: 11.09
BB/9: 3.76 BB/9: 2.71
FIP: 4.65 FIP: 2.69
IP: 131.7 IP: 169.7
xERA: 4.73 xERA: 2.92
xwOBA: 0.333 xwOBA: 0.266
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Jesús Luzardo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL PHI Lg Avg
Record 85-58 80-63
R/Game 4.65 4.48 4.48
RA/Game 3.81 4.24 4.48
OPS 0.725 0.712 0.718
wOBA 0.311 0.306 0.309
ERA 3.57 3.99 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.62 4.03
WHIP 1.25 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.57 9.92 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.590 0.525 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.08 4.16 4.24
BP FIP 3.32 3.58 4.06
BP WHIP 1.14 1.31
BP K/9 9.24 10.08
BP Quality* 38.6 46.0 46.2
BP IP 377.0 474.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Alex McFarlane (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Dominic Smith, Mike Yastrzemski
Dominic Smith Designated Hitter OPS: 0.696 (260 AB)
Mike Yastrzemski Outfielder OPS: 0.685 (314 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.3% of full strength
PHI (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Bryan De La Cruz, Derek Hill
Bryan De La Cruz Outfielder OPS: 0.847 (53 AB)
Derek Hill Outfielder OPS: 0.741 (185 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0243 (Temp: 1.0104 | Wind: 1.0138)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 3.8 - PHI 4.4
Simulated Avg: ATL 3.8 - PHI 4.4
Win Probability: ATL 43.5% - PHI 56.5%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +130 / PHI -130
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 44.2%
Under 8.0: 46.3%
ATL +1.5: 60.8%
PHI -1.5: 39.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 1.8 - PHI 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 1.8 - PHI 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ATL 35.1% - PHI 64.9% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +185 / PHI -185
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML +153 +130 +4.0%
PHI ML -186 -130 -8.5%
ATL +1.5 -142 -155 +2.1%
PHI -1.5 +118 +155 -6.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -6.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | September 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jonah Tong Home: Eury Pérez
ERA: 3.6 ERA: 3.72
WHIP: 1.5 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 6.3 K/9: 9.64
BB/9: 6.3 BB/9: 3.92
FIP: 5.1 FIP: 3.9
IP: 10.0 IP: 135.3
xERA: 4.01 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Eury Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM MIA Lg Avg
Record 65-78 72-72
R/Game 4.17 4.38 4.48
RA/Game 4.50 4.28 4.48
OPS 0.697 0.725 0.718
wOBA 0.300 0.314 0.309
ERA 4.12 3.98 4.17
FIP 3.91 3.90 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.26 1.30
K/9 9.02 8.28 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.465 0.511 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.24 4.52 4.24
BP FIP 4.25 3.92 4.06
BP WHIP 1.34 1.33
BP K/9 9.21 8.82
BP Quality* 49.9 51.0 46.2
BP IP 284.3 473.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kodai Senga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jefry Yan (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Ralston (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jared Young, Luis Torrens, Mark Vientos
Jared Young First Base OPS: 0.759 (278 AB)
Luis Torrens Catcher OPS: 0.687 (228 AB)
Mark Vientos First Base OPS: 0.669 (249 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.2% of full strength
MIA (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Esteury Ruiz, Xavier Edwards
Esteury Ruiz Outfielder OPS: 0.765 (175 AB)
Xavier Edwards Second Base OPS: 0.737 (500 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 30%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9903 (Temp: 1.0183 | Wind: 0.9725)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.6 - MIA 3.9
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.6 - MIA 3.9
Win Probability: NYM 46.2% - MIA 53.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +116 / MIA -116
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 8.0: 37.9%
Under 8.0: 52.6%
NYM +1.5: 64.4%
MIA -1.5: 35.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 1.9 - MIA 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.9 - MIA 2.0
F5 Win Prob: NYM 46.6% - MIA 53.4% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +115 / MIA -115
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +113 +116 -0.7%
MIA ML -136 -116 -3.8%
NYM +1.5 -184 -181 -0.4%
MIA -1.5 +151 +181 -4.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -14.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +0.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | September 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Grayson Rodriguez Home: Brayan Bello
ERA: 6.03 ERA: 5.07
WHIP: 1.52 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 8.34 K/9: 6.45
BB/9: 3.82 BB/9: 3.04
FIP: 4.53 FIP: 4.14
IP: 77.7 IP: 97.7
xERA: 5.4 xERA: 5.47
xwOBA: 0.353 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Brayan Bello)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA BOS Lg Avg
Record 54-89 79-65
R/Game 4.03 4.46 4.48
RA/Game 4.57 3.86 4.48
OPS 0.677 0.727 0.718
wOBA 0.294 0.313 0.309
ERA 4.21 3.60 4.17
FIP 3.97 3.57 4.03
WHIP 1.34 1.23 1.30
K/9 9.10 8.68 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.443 0.565 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.66 3.47 4.24
BP FIP 4.24 3.51 4.06
BP WHIP 1.42 1.25
BP K/9 9.17 9.29
BP Quality* 50.4 43.1 46.2
BP IP 373.0 397.3
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jovani Morán (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Nolan Schanuel, Jorge Soler, Jose Siri, Adam Frazier
Nolan Schanuel First Base OPS: 0.736 (392 AB)
Jorge Soler Designated Hitter OPS: 0.664 (316 AB)
Jose Siri Outfielder OPS: 0.660 (178 AB)
Adam Frazier Second Base OPS: 0.656 (119 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.0% of full strength
BOS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Willson Contreras, Curtis Mead, Nick Sogard, Ceddanne Rafaela, Masataka Yoshida, Anthony Seigler
Willson Contreras First Base OPS: 0.900 (434 AB)
Curtis Mead Second Base OPS: 0.851 (285 AB)
Nick Sogard Second Base OPS: 0.764 (176 AB)
Ceddanne Rafaela Outfielder OPS: 0.760 (535 AB)
Masataka Yoshida Designated Hitter OPS: 0.746 (263 AB)
Anthony Seigler Second Base OPS: 0.736 (148 AB)
Run Adjustment: 83.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), crosswind (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0005 (Temp: 1.0099 | Wind: 0.9907)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 4.2 - BOS 4.8
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.2 - BOS 4.8
Win Probability: LAA 44.5% - BOS 55.5%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +125 / BOS -125
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 51.2%
Under 8.5: 48.8%
LAA +1.5: 60.8%
BOS -1.5: 39.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 2.6 - BOS 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.6 - BOS 2.8
F5 Win Prob: LAA 46.9% - BOS 53.1% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +113 / BOS -113
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +149 +125 +4.3%
BOS ML -181 -125 -8.9%
LAA +1.5 -144 -155 +1.8%
BOS -1.5 +119 +155 -6.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | September 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Joey Cantillo Home: Trevor Rogers
ERA: 3.81 ERA: 4.3
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 9.59 K/9: 8.23
BB/9: 4.57 BB/9: 2.31
FIP: 3.96 FIP: 3.48
IP: 141.7 IP: 144.3
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 3.76
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Trevor Rogers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE BAL Lg Avg
Record 73-71 69-75
R/Game 4.03 4.45 4.48
RA/Game 4.12 4.65 4.48
OPS 0.684 0.708 0.718
wOBA 0.298 0.306 0.309
ERA 3.75 4.13 4.17
FIP 3.71 3.96 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.52 8.15 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.489 0.480 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.65 4.11 4.24
BP FIP 3.49 3.68 4.06
BP WHIP 1.27 1.31
BP K/9 10.00 8.91
BP Quality* 45.2 45.2 46.2
BP IP 493.3 477.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Chase DeLauter, Nathaniel Lowe, Travis Bazzana, Kyle Manzardo
Chase DeLauter Outfielder OPS: 0.823 (445 AB)
Nathaniel Lowe First Base OPS: 0.770 (343 AB)
Travis Bazzana Second Base OPS: 0.714 (389 AB)
Kyle Manzardo First Base OPS: 0.684 (312 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.9% of full strength
BAL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Luis Robert Jr., Tyler O'Neill
Luis Robert Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.707 (204 AB)
Tyler O'Neill Outfielder OPS: 0.677 (231 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0364 (Temp: 1.0143 | Wind: 1.0219)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 3.5 - BAL 4.5
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.5 - BAL 4.5
Win Probability: CLE 40.2% - BAL 59.8%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +148 / BAL -148
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 7.0: 52.1%
Under 7.0: 38.0%
CLE +1.5: 57.8%
BAL -1.5: 42.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 1.9 - BAL 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.9 - BAL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CLE 40.8% - BAL 59.2% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +145 / BAL -145
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML +119 +148 -5.4%
BAL ML -143 -148 +0.9%
CLE +1.5 -193 -137 -8.0%
BAL -1.5 +158 +137 +3.4%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -0.3%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -14.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | September 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Derek Law Home: Noah Cameron
ERA: 1.93 ERA: 4.08
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 5.79 K/9: 8.05
BB/9: 1.93 BB/9: 2.86
FIP: 2.46 FIP: 3.61
IP: 4.7 IP: 154.3
xERA: 9.92 xERA: 4.06
xwOBA: 0.45 xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Derek Law)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI KC Lg Avg
Record 76-68 64-80
R/Game 4.42 4.28 4.48
RA/Game 4.42 4.90 4.48
OPS 0.708 0.719 0.718
wOBA 0.304 0.309 0.309
ERA 4.13 4.70 4.17
FIP 4.20 4.49 4.03
WHIP 1.28 1.39 1.30
K/9 6.98 7.41 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.499 0.439 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.56 6.01 4.24
BP FIP 3.54 5.38 4.06
BP WHIP 1.20 1.65
BP K/9 7.73 7.54
BP Quality* 46.6 66.9 46.2
BP IP 457.3 488.0
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jose Cuas (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Gose (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nolan Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Connor Thomas (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Corbin Carroll, James McCann, Lars Nootbaar
Corbin Carroll Outfielder OPS: 0.803 (524 AB)
James McCann Catcher OPS: 0.781 (135 AB)
Lars Nootbaar Designated Hitter OPS: 0.712 (232 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.7% of full strength
KC (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jac Caglianone, Tyler Tolbert, Maikel Garcia
Jac Caglianone Outfielder OPS: 0.825 (474 AB)
Tyler Tolbert Shortstop OPS: 0.798 (115 AB)
Maikel Garcia Third Base OPS: 0.709 (283 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0067 (Temp: 1.0324 | Wind: 0.9751)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 4.5 - KC 3.8
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.5 - KC 3.8
Win Probability: ARI 57.3% - KC 42.7%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -134 / KC +134
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 9.0: 35.7%
Under 9.0: 55.2%
ARI -1.5: 40.4%
KC +1.5: 59.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 2.1 - KC 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.1 - KC 2.0
F5 Win Prob: ARI 52.2% - KC 47.8% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -109 / KC +109
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML -107 -134 +5.6%
KC ML -112 +134 -10.1%
ARI -1.5 +150 +147 +0.4%
KC +1.5 -182 -147 -4.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -16.7%
U 9.0 -110 N/A +2.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | September 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Boyd Home: Robert Gasser
ERA: 4.05 ERA: 4.57
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 6.95 K/9: 8.52
BB/9: 2.73 BB/9: 2.8
FIP: 4.37 FIP: 4.09
IP: 102.3 IP: 86.7
xERA: 4.86 xERA: 4.15
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC MIL Lg Avg
Record 81-63 88-56
R/Game 5.33 5.04 4.48
RA/Game 4.42 3.88 4.48
OPS 0.771 0.739 0.718
wOBA 0.332 0.318 0.309
ERA 4.21 3.54 4.17
FIP 4.59 3.59 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.19 1.30
K/9 7.77 9.66 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.585 0.618 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.64 3.40 4.24
BP FIP 4.65 3.53 4.06
BP WHIP 1.37 1.26
BP K/9 8.67 9.15
BP Quality* 51.8 49.2 46.2
BP IP 502.7 494.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Colin Rea (61 pitches yesterday)
MIL: DEPLETED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: JoJo Romero (B2B, 35 pitches)
UNAVAIL: Grant Anderson (B2B, 44 pitches)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9957 (Temp: 1.0083 | Wind: 0.9876)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 5.3 - MIL 5.5
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.4 - MIL 5.5
Win Probability: CHC 48.4% - MIL 51.6%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +107 / MIL -107
Avg Total Runs: 10.9
Over 8.5: 65.7%
Under 8.5: 34.3%
CHC +1.5: 62.4%
MIL -1.5: 37.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 2.9 - MIL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.9 - MIL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CHC 49.4% - MIL 50.6% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +102 / MIL -102
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML +105 +107 -0.4%
MIL ML -126 -107 -4.1%
CHC +1.5 -199 -166 -4.1%
MIL -1.5 +163 +166 -0.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +13.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -18.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01151
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | September 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Joe Ryan Home: Troy Melton
ERA: 3.65 ERA: 2.2
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.03
K/9: 9.88 K/9: 7.39
BB/9: 1.93 BB/9: 2.55
FIP: 3.31 FIP: 3.83
IP: 125.7 IP: 102.3
xERA: 3.5 xERA: 3.58
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Joe Ryan)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN DET Lg Avg
Record 68-75 65-78
R/Game 4.66 4.38 4.48
RA/Game 4.99 4.03 4.48
OPS 0.726 0.709 0.718
wOBA 0.314 0.307 0.309
ERA 4.67 3.68 4.17
FIP 4.14 3.85 4.03
WHIP 1.38 1.22 1.30
K/9 8.52 8.19 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.538 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.56 4.39 4.24
BP FIP 3.98 4.49 4.06
BP WHIP 1.43 1.34
BP K/9 8.90 8.26
BP Quality* 52.1 57.8 46.2
BP IP 522.7 435.0
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Garrett Acton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Beau Brieske (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Byron Buxton, Alex Jackson
Byron Buxton Outfielder OPS: 0.830 (370 AB)
Alex Jackson Catcher OPS: 0.759 (68 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.5% of full strength
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0373 (Temp: 1.0094 | Wind: 1.0276)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 4.4 - DET 4.4
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.3 - DET 4.4
Win Probability: MIN 49.8% - DET 50.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +101 / DET -101
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.0: 49.2%
Under 8.0: 41.2%
MIN -1.5: 33.9%
DET +1.5: 66.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.0 - DET 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.0 - DET 2.1
F5 Win Prob: MIN 48.2% - DET 51.8% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +107 / DET -107
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML -101 +101 -0.4%
DET ML -120 -101 -4.4%
MIN -1.5 +166 +195 -3.7%
DET +1.5 -203 -195 -0.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | September 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jake Irvin Home: Nick Pivetta
ERA: 5.57 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 9.14 K/9: 13.5
BB/9: 4.2 BB/9: 3.38
FIP: 4.75 FIP: 1.23
IP: 85.7 IP: 16.0
xERA: 5.29 xERA: 1.87
xwOBA: 0.35 xwOBA: 0.212
Pitcher Edge: SD (Nick Pivetta)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH SD Lg Avg
Record 67-78 75-68
R/Game 5.16 4.21 4.48
RA/Game 5.10 4.15 4.48
OPS 0.754 0.700 0.718
wOBA 0.323 0.302 0.309
ERA 4.72 3.91 4.17
FIP 4.56 4.02 4.03
WHIP 1.39 1.29 1.30
K/9 7.93 8.26 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.506 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.16 2.84 4.24
BP FIP 5.18 2.98 4.06
BP WHIP 1.61 1.16
BP K/9 8.63 11.13
BP Quality* 64.4 39.1 46.2
BP IP 466.0 297.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Will Dion (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brad Lord (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jack Sinclair (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), wind out (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0672 (Temp: 1.0308 | Wind: 1.0354)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 4.8 - SD 5.7
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.8 - SD 5.7
Win Probability: WSH 42.6% - SD 57.4%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +135 / SD -135
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 8.0: 63.6%
Under 8.0: 28.4%
WSH +1.5: 57.1%
SD -1.5: 42.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 2.9 - SD 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.9 - SD 3.0
F5 Win Prob: WSH 48.8% - SD 51.2% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +105 / SD -105
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +150 +135 +2.6%
SD ML -182 -135 -7.1%
WSH +1.5 -142 -133 -1.6%
SD -1.5 +117 +133 -3.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +11.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -24.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01152
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | September 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael McGreevy Home: Logan Webb
ERA: 3.97 ERA: 4.21
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 6.23 K/9: 7.16
BB/9: 2.44 BB/9: 2.29
FIP: 4.29 FIP: 3.23
IP: 147.3 IP: 149.7
xERA: 5.36 xERA: 4.06
xwOBA: 0.352 xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: SF (Logan Webb)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL SF Lg Avg
Record 72-72 59-85
R/Game 4.56 4.19 4.48
RA/Game 4.62 4.71 4.48
OPS 0.704 0.715 0.718
wOBA 0.305 0.305 0.309
ERA 4.32 4.39 4.17
FIP 3.93 4.07 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.36 1.30
K/9 7.99 7.67 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.494 0.447 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 4.68 4.24
BP FIP 4.09 4.38 4.06
BP WHIP 1.37 1.47
BP K/9 8.14 7.08
BP Quality* 53.9 53.5 46.2
BP IP 510.7 447.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cooper Hjerpe (54 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Cade Winquest (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hancel Rincon (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joel Kuhnel (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind in (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9808 (Temp: 1.0009 | Wind: 0.9799)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.2 - SF 4.5
Simulated Avg: STL 4.2 - SF 4.5
Win Probability: STL 46.5% - SF 53.5%
Fair Moneyline: STL +115 / SF -115
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 7.5: 58.3%
Under 7.5: 41.7%
STL +1.5: 63.1%
SF -1.5: 36.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.1 - SF 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.1 - SF 2.4
F5 Win Prob: STL 44.6% - SF 55.4% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +124 / SF -124
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +109 +115 -1.3%
SF ML -131 -115 -3.2%
STL +1.5 -198 -171 -3.4%
SF -1.5 +162 +171 -1.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +5.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -10.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | September 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chase Burns Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN LAD Lg Avg
Record 69-74 86-57
R/Game 4.23 4.93 4.48
RA/Game 4.97 3.87 4.48
OPS 0.709 0.756 0.718
wOBA 0.306 0.324 0.309
ERA 4.68 3.71 4.17
FIP 4.52 3.71 4.03
WHIP 1.43 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.23 9.33 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.427 0.609 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.70 4.03 4.24
BP FIP 4.58 3.80 4.06
BP WHIP 1.45 1.28
BP K/9 8.80 9.75
BP Quality* 60.1 48.1 46.2
BP IP 534.7 450.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bobby Miller (53 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0092 (Temp: 1.0135 | Wind: 0.9958)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 4.1 - LAD 4.8
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.1 - LAD 4.8
Win Probability: CIN 43.4% - LAD 56.6%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +130 / LAD -130
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 50.9%
Under 8.5: 49.1%
CIN +1.5: 60.0%
LAD -1.5: 40.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.3 - LAD 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.3 - LAD 2.0
F5 Win Prob: CIN 55.6% - LAD 44.4% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN -125 / LAD +125
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +142 +130 +2.1%
LAD ML -172 -130 -6.7%
CIN +1.5 -149 -150 +0.1%
LAD -1.5 +123 +150 -4.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -1.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics
Regular Season | September 07, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Dylan Cease Home: Jacob Lopez
ERA: 2.25 ERA: 4.71
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 12.72 K/9: 8.83
BB/9: 3.74 BB/9: 4.46
FIP: 2.35 FIP: 4.73
IP: 156.3 IP: 105.0
xERA: 2.73 xERA: 3.4
xwOBA: 0.257 xwOBA: 0.286
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR ATH Lg Avg
Record 72-72 57-87
R/Game 4.03 4.38 4.48
RA/Game 4.29 5.69 4.48
OPS 0.691 0.724 0.718
wOBA 0.298 0.312 0.309
ERA 3.92 5.40 4.17
FIP 3.90 4.69 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.49 1.30
K/9 8.77 8.63 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.383 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.58 5.93 4.24
BP FIP 4.02 4.61 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.61
BP K/9 8.18 9.15
BP Quality* 48.1 59.4 46.2
BP IP 289.3 535.3
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joe Mantiply (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ricky Tiedemann (31 pitches yesterday)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Geoff Hartlieb (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9968 (Temp: 0.9976 | Wind: 0.9992)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 4.6 - ATH 3.5
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.6 - ATH 3.5
Win Probability: TOR 60.7% - ATH 39.3%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -154 / ATH +154
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.5: 43.3%
Under 8.5: 56.7%
TOR -1.5: 43.6%
ATH +1.5: 56.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.3 - ATH 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.3 - ATH 1.5
F5 Win Prob: TOR 66.6% - ATH 33.4% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -200 / ATH +200
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML -206 -154 -6.7%
ATH ML +169 +154 +2.2%
TOR -1.5 -122 +130 -11.4%
ATH +1.5 +101 -130 +6.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -9.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +4.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================