2026-09-08
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-08
Games: 15 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | September 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tanner Bibee Home: Brandon Young
ERA: 4.06 ERA: 3.42
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 7.14 K/9: 7.23
BB/9: 2.76 BB/9: 3.15
FIP: 4.47 FIP: 4.35
IP: 166.3 IP: 137.0
xERA: 4.29 xERA: 4.32
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE BAL Lg Avg
Record 73-72 70-75
R/Game 4.03 4.46 4.48
RA/Game 4.14 4.65 4.48
OPS 0.684 0.710 0.718
wOBA 0.298 0.307 0.309
ERA 3.76 4.13 4.17
FIP 3.72 3.95 4.03
WHIP 1.27 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.54 8.13 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.488 0.481 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 4.16 4.24
BP FIP 3.48 3.71 4.06
BP WHIP 1.28 1.31
BP K/9 10.03 8.87
BP Quality* 43.7 45.5 46.2
BP IP 496.0 478.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Slade Cecconi (44 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Franco Aleman (30 pitches yesterday)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0056 (Temp: 1.0133 | Wind: 0.9923)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 4.0 - BAL 4.7
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.0 - BAL 4.7
Win Probability: CLE 43.2% - BAL 56.8%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +131 / BAL -131
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.5: 48.6%
Under 8.5: 51.4%
CLE +1.5: 59.8%
BAL -1.5: 40.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 2.2 - BAL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.2 - BAL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CLE 43.1% - BAL 56.9% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +132 / BAL -132
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML +102 +131 -6.3%
BAL ML -123 -131 +1.6%
CLE +1.5 -205 -149 -7.4%
BAL -1.5 +168 +149 +2.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | September 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dean Kremer Home: Drew Anderson
ERA: 5.81 ERA: 3.73
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 8.91 K/9: 9.92
BB/9: 3.24 BB/9: 3.63
FIP: 5.12 FIP: 3.95
IP: 66.7 IP: 91.7
xERA: 4.6 xERA: 3.89
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: DET (Drew Anderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN DET Lg Avg
Record 68-76 66-78
R/Game 4.65 4.39 4.48
RA/Game 4.99 4.03 4.48
OPS 0.727 0.710 0.718
wOBA 0.314 0.307 0.309
ERA 4.66 3.68 4.17
FIP 4.14 3.86 4.03
WHIP 1.38 1.23 1.30
K/9 8.56 8.17 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.538 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.56 4.35 4.24
BP FIP 3.98 4.50 4.06
BP WHIP 1.43 1.35
BP K/9 8.90 8.23
BP Quality* 50.6 54.8 46.2
BP IP 522.7 438.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Connor Prielipp (68 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9969 (Temp: 1.0114 | Wind: 0.9857)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.7 - DET 5.2
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.7 - DET 5.2
Win Probability: MIN 44.6% - DET 55.4%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +124 / DET -124
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.0: 58.9%
Under 8.0: 32.8%
MIN +1.5: 60.2%
DET -1.5: 39.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.4 - DET 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.3 - DET 3.0
F5 Win Prob: MIN 40.2% - DET 59.8% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +149 / DET -149
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML +114 +124 -2.2%
DET ML -137 -124 -2.4%
MIN +1.5 -181 -151 -4.3%
DET -1.5 +149 +151 -0.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +6.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -19.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | September 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Hayden Wesneski Home: Andrew Painter
ERA: 3.18 ERA: 5.55
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 7.49 K/9: 7.78
BB/9: 3.18 BB/9: 3.16
FIP: 3.15 FIP: 4.52
IP: 39.7 IP: 105.3
xERA: 3.81 xERA: 4.32
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Hayden Wesneski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU PHI Lg Avg
Record 73-71 81-63
R/Game 4.49 4.46 4.48
RA/Game 4.76 4.22 4.48
OPS 0.722 0.712 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.306 0.309
ERA 4.51 3.96 4.17
FIP 4.37 3.60 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.27 1.30
K/9 8.89 9.93 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.474 0.526 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.09 4.16 4.24
BP FIP 4.23 3.58 4.06
BP WHIP 1.28 1.31
BP K/9 9.11 10.08
BP Quality* 45.8 44.5 46.2
BP IP 499.0 474.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9989 (Temp: 1.0086 | Wind: 0.9904)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 4.8 - PHI 4.1
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.8 - PHI 4.2
Win Probability: HOU 56.4% - PHI 43.6%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -129 / PHI +129
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 51.5%
Under 8.5: 48.5%
HOU +1.5: 71.9%
PHI -1.5: 28.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 2.9 - PHI 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.9 - PHI 2.1
F5 Win Prob: HOU 62.7% - PHI 37.3% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -168 / PHI +168
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +119 -129 +10.8%
PHI ML -143 +129 -15.3%
HOU +1.5 -171 -255 +8.8%
PHI -1.5 +141 +255 -13.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.9%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Houston Astros +1.5 (Run Line) [-171]
Model: 71.9% | Market: 63.1% | Edge: 8.8%
Fair ML: -255 | Kelly: 5.94%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01153
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | September 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Manaea Home: Sandy Alcantara
ERA: 4.7 ERA: 3.54
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 8.56 K/9: 6.53
BB/9: 2.88 BB/9: 2.35
FIP: 4.28 FIP: 3.69
IP: 128.3 IP: 195.7
xERA: 4.95 xERA: 3.65
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Sandy Alcantara)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM MIA Lg Avg
Record 66-78 72-73
R/Game 4.20 4.38 4.48
RA/Game 4.50 4.31 4.48
OPS 0.699 0.725 0.718
wOBA 0.301 0.314 0.309
ERA 4.12 4.00 4.17
FIP 3.90 3.89 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.27 1.30
K/9 9.04 8.29 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.23 4.51 4.24
BP FIP 4.19 3.91 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.33
BP K/9 9.30 8.82
BP Quality* 48.0 53.9 46.2
BP IP 293.3 478.7
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Chris Devenski (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Josh Ekness (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Bradley Blalock (48 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0061 (Temp: 1.0151 | Wind: 0.9910)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.8 - MIA 4.5
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.8 - MIA 4.5
Win Probability: NYM 42.7% - MIA 57.3%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +134 / MIA -134
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 45.3%
Under 8.0: 45.1%
NYM +1.5: 59.8%
MIA -1.5: 40.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 1.9 - MIA 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.9 - MIA 2.5
F5 Win Prob: NYM 38.5% - MIA 61.5% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +160 / MIA -160
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +105 +134 -6.1%
MIA ML -127 -134 +1.3%
NYM +1.5 -197 -149 -6.5%
MIA -1.5 +161 +149 +1.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | September 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Reid Detmers Home: Patrick Sandoval
ERA: 3.44 ERA: 4.41
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.73
K/9: 10.11 K/9: 9.18
BB/9: 2.44 BB/9: 4.59
FIP: 3.03 FIP: 4.18
IP: 162.0 IP: 49.0
xERA: 3.25 xERA: 5.29
xwOBA: 0.28 xwOBA: 0.35
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA BOS Lg Avg
Record 54-90 80-65
R/Game 4.02 4.46 4.48
RA/Game 4.58 3.85 4.48
OPS 0.676 0.729 0.718
wOBA 0.294 0.313 0.309
ERA 4.22 3.59 4.17
FIP 3.99 3.56 4.03
WHIP 1.34 1.23 1.30
K/9 9.08 8.73 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.441 0.567 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.61 3.48 4.24
BP FIP 4.22 3.50 4.06
BP WHIP 1.42 1.24
BP K/9 9.14 9.37
BP Quality* 50.1 43.0 46.2
BP IP 377.0 401.3
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mitch Farris (36 pitches yesterday)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Wyatt Olds (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jovani Morán (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0236 (Temp: 0.9992 | Wind: 1.0245)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 4.4 - BOS 4.4
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.4 - BOS 4.4
Win Probability: LAA 49.6% - BOS 50.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +102 / BOS -102
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.5: 59.0%
Under 7.5: 41.0%
LAA +1.5: 65.8%
BOS -1.5: 34.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 2.6 - BOS 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.6 - BOS 2.1
F5 Win Prob: LAA 59.6% - BOS 40.4% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -147 / BOS +147
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +123 +102 +4.8%
BOS ML -149 -102 -9.4%
LAA +1.5 -181 -192 +1.4%
BOS -1.5 +149 +192 -6.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +6.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -11.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | September 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gabriel Hughes Home: Cam Schlittler
ERA: 6.19 ERA: 2.04
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 0.94
K/9: 7.22 K/9: 11.01
BB/9: 3.61 BB/9: 2.2
FIP: 3.94 FIP: 2.52
IP: 52.3 IP: 171.7
xERA: 3.65 xERA: 2.97
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.268
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL NYY Lg Avg
Record 55-88 81-62
R/Game 4.75 4.52 4.48
RA/Game 5.73 3.70 4.48
OPS 0.741 0.717 0.718
wOBA 0.318 0.308 0.309
ERA 5.47 3.23 4.17
FIP 4.65 3.57 4.03
WHIP 1.52 1.17 1.30
K/9 6.99 8.99 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.415 0.590 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.74 3.07 4.24
BP FIP 4.25 3.88 4.06
BP WHIP 1.51 1.20
BP K/9 7.57 8.18
BP Quality* 53.3 41.9 46.2
BP IP 286.7 510.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Nick Frasso (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0224 (Temp: 1.0044 | Wind: 1.0179)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 3.5 - NYY 5.2
Simulated Avg: COL 3.5 - NYY 5.2
Win Probability: COL 33.4% - NYY 66.6%
Fair Moneyline: COL +200 / NYY -200
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.0: 48.8%
Under 8.0: 42.0%
COL +1.5: 49.9%
NYY -1.5: 50.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 1.6 - NYY 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 1.6 - NYY 2.7
F5 Win Prob: COL 30.8% - NYY 69.2% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +225 / NYY -225
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +267 +200 +6.1%
NYY ML -341 -200 -10.7%
COL +1.5 +125 +100 +5.5%
NYY -1.5 -150 -100 -9.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | September 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Freddy Peralta Home: AJ Smith-Shawver
ERA: 4.96 ERA: 7.13
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.75
K/9: 8.57 K/9: 7.64
BB/9: 3.31 BB/9: 5.6
FIP: 4.33 FIP: 4.74
IP: 147.0 IP: 17.7
xERA: 3.89 xERA: 4.32
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: TB (Freddy Peralta)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB ATL Lg Avg
Record 85-58 85-59
R/Game 4.52 4.62 4.48
RA/Game 4.20 3.79 4.48
OPS 0.732 0.722 0.718
wOBA 0.313 0.310 0.309
ERA 3.82 3.55 4.17
FIP 3.97 3.92 4.03
WHIP 1.15 1.24 1.30
K/9 8.22 8.59 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.534 0.589 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.49 3.09 4.24
BP FIP 3.93 3.33 4.06
BP WHIP 1.13 1.14
BP K/9 8.74 9.28
BP Quality* 42.7 37.1 46.2
BP IP 407.7 379.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0265 (Temp: 1.0170 | Wind: 1.0094)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.8 - ATL 4.9
Simulated Avg: TB 4.8 - ATL 4.9
Win Probability: TB 48.8% - ATL 51.2%
Fair Moneyline: TB +105 / ATL -105
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.0: 57.3%
Under 8.0: 34.1%
TB -1.5: 34.1%
ATL +1.5: 65.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 3.1 - ATL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 3.1 - ATL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: TB 54.0% - ATL 46.0% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -118 / ATL +118
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML -103 +105 -2.0%
ATL ML -117 -105 -2.7%
TB -1.5 +166 +193 -3.5%
ATL +1.5 -202 -193 -1.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +4.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -18.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] ARI starter (id 669203) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | September 08, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Player 669203 Home: Michael Wacha
ERA: 0.0 ERA: 3.36
WHIP: 0.0 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 0.0 K/9: 7.28
BB/9: 0.0 BB/9: 2.24
FIP: 0.0 FIP: 3.99
IP: 0.0 IP: 176.7
xERA: N/A xERA: 3.89
xwOBA: N/A xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Player 669203)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI KC Lg Avg
Record 77-68 64-81
R/Game 4.42 4.28 4.48
RA/Game 4.42 4.90 4.48
OPS 0.707 0.718 0.718
wOBA 0.304 0.308 0.309
ERA 4.12 4.69 4.17
FIP 4.19 4.47 4.03
WHIP 1.28 1.39 1.30
K/9 6.98 7.43 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.500 0.439 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.57 6.04 4.24
BP FIP 3.52 5.35 4.06
BP WHIP 1.20 1.65
BP K/9 7.75 7.57
BP Quality* 49.5 66.8 46.2
BP IP 464.3 492.0
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Brandyn Garcia (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Jose Cabrera (50 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Craig Kimbrel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jose Cuas (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Gose (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Connor Thomas (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0115 (Temp: 1.0381 | Wind: 0.9743)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.8 - KC 4.0
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.8 - KC 3.9
Win Probability: ARI 58.6% - KC 41.4%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -142 / KC +142
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 9.0: 40.6%
Under 9.0: 50.3%
ARI -1.5: 42.6%
KC +1.5: 57.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.2 - KC 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.2 - KC 1.9
F5 Win Prob: ARI 55.8% - KC 44.2% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -126 / KC +126
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -120 -142 +4.1%
KC ML -101 +142 -8.9%
ARI -1.5 +135 +135 +0.1%
KC +1.5 -163 -135 -4.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -11.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -2.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | September 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bubba Chandler Home: Sean Burke
ERA: 4.3 ERA: 3.2
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 8.01 K/9: 9.72
BB/9: 4.7 BB/9: 3.14
FIP: 4.03 FIP: 3.5
IP: 136.0 IP: 154.7
xERA: 4.12 xERA: 3.65
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Burke)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT CWS Lg Avg
Record 71-73 75-68
R/Game 4.82 4.76 4.48
RA/Game 4.64 4.41 4.48
OPS 0.731 0.726 0.718
wOBA 0.317 0.312 0.309
ERA 4.18 4.11 4.17
FIP 3.68 4.08 4.03
WHIP 1.31 1.30 1.30
K/9 9.25 8.42 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.517 0.534 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.73 4.26 4.24
BP FIP 3.57 4.38 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.38
BP K/9 9.58 8.27
BP Quality* 41.9 49.8 46.2
BP IP 460.3 319.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9881 (Temp: 1.0129 | Wind: 0.9755)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 4.4 - CWS 4.6
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.4 - CWS 4.6
Win Probability: PIT 47.5% - CWS 52.5%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +111 / CWS -111
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 51.5%
Under 8.5: 48.5%
PIT +1.5: 63.5%
CWS -1.5: 36.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.2 - CWS 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.2 - CWS 2.6
F5 Win Prob: PIT 42.7% - CWS 57.3% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +134 / CWS -134
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +120 +111 +2.0%
CWS ML -145 -111 -6.7%
PIT +1.5 -174 -174 +0.0%
CWS -1.5 +143 +174 -4.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | September 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: David Peterson Home: Jacob Misiorowski
ERA: 5.39 ERA: 1.97
WHIP: 1.56 WHIP: 0.79
K/9: 8.01 K/9: 13.18
BB/9: 3.97 BB/9: 2.26
FIP: 4.08 FIP: 2.1
IP: 127.0 IP: 155.0
xERA: 4.95 xERA: 2.08
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.224
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC MIL Lg Avg
Record 81-64 89-56
R/Game 5.32 5.03 4.48
RA/Game 4.41 3.87 4.48
OPS 0.770 0.738 0.718
wOBA 0.331 0.318 0.309
ERA 4.21 3.54 4.17
FIP 4.57 3.61 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.19 1.30
K/9 7.79 9.64 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.584 0.618 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.65 3.42 4.24
BP FIP 4.65 3.56 4.06
BP WHIP 1.37 1.26
BP K/9 8.68 9.10
BP Quality* 51.9 46.4 46.2
BP IP 503.7 497.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Anderson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9929 (Temp: 1.0090 | Wind: 0.9841)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 3.6 - MIL 5.7
Simulated Avg: CHC 3.6 - MIL 5.7
Win Probability: CHC 30.7% - MIL 69.3%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +225 / MIL -225
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 7.5: 62.7%
Under 7.5: 37.3%
CHC +1.5: 46.2%
MIL -1.5: 53.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 1.4 - MIL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 1.4 - MIL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: CHC 22.5% - MIL 77.5% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +344 / MIL -344
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CHC ML +178 +225 -5.2%
MIL ML -219 -225 +0.6%
CHC +1.5 -121 +117 -8.6%
MIL -1.5 +100 -117 +3.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +10.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -15.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01154
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | September 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Riley Cornelio Home: Casey Mize
ERA: 5.96 ERA: 3.64
WHIP: 1.81 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 9.13 K/9: 7.92
BB/9: 8.34 BB/9: 2.22
FIP: 4.99 FIP: 3.57
IP: 22.7 IP: 113.7
xERA: 4.15 xERA: 3.44
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: SD (Casey Mize)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH SD Lg Avg
Record 67-79 76-68
R/Game 5.14 4.20 4.48
RA/Game 5.08 4.14 4.48
OPS 0.752 0.700 0.718
wOBA 0.322 0.302 0.309
ERA 4.72 3.90 4.17
FIP 4.56 4.02 4.03
WHIP 1.39 1.29 1.30
K/9 7.91 8.26 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.505 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.13 2.82 4.24
BP FIP 5.17 2.96 4.06
BP WHIP 1.60 1.15
BP K/9 8.61 11.14
BP Quality* 61.1 38.8 46.2
BP IP 468.3 299.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jack Sinclair (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0020 (Temp: 1.0251 | Wind: 0.9775)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 4.1 - SD 5.3
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.1 - SD 5.2
Win Probability: WSH 39.2% - SD 60.8%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +155 / SD -155
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.0: 54.3%
Under 8.0: 36.6%
WSH +1.5: 55.2%
SD -1.5: 44.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 2.3 - SD 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.3 - SD 2.8
F5 Win Prob: WSH 41.7% - SD 58.3% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +140 / SD -140
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +158 +155 +0.5%
SD ML -193 -155 -5.1%
WSH +1.5 -136 -123 -2.5%
SD -1.5 +113 +123 -2.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +1.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -15.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | September 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX SEA Lg Avg
Record 71-73 67-77
R/Game 4.13 3.95 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.717 0.684 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.299 0.309
ERA 4.30 4.20 4.17
FIP 4.02 3.86 4.03
WHIP 1.31 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.63 8.60 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.446 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.51 4.32 4.24
BP FIP 4.30 4.12 4.06
BP WHIP 1.39 1.36
BP K/9 8.40 8.54
BP Quality* 53.0 46.8 46.2
BP IP 502.7 473.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9837 (Temp: 0.9926 | Wind: 0.9910)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.8 - SEA 4.0
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.8 - SEA 4.0
Win Probability: TEX 47.8% - SEA 52.2%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +109 / SEA -109
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 8.0: 39.2%
Under 8.0: 50.8%
TEX +1.5: 65.7%
SEA -1.5: 34.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.1 - SEA 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.1 - SEA 2.1
F5 Win Prob: TEX 50.8% - SEA 49.2% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -103 / SEA +103
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +113 +109 +0.8%
SEA ML -136 -109 -5.4%
TEX +1.5 -186 -192 +0.7%
SEA -1.5 +153 +192 -5.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -13.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -1.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics
Regular Season | September 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: José Soriano Home: Jack Perkins
ERA: 3.52 ERA: 6.5
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.54
K/9: 8.71 K/9: 10.62
BB/9: 4.04 BB/9: 4.3
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 4.55
IP: 156.0 IP: 98.3
xERA: 4.47 xERA: 4.03
xwOBA: 0.325 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: TOR (José Soriano)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR ATH Lg Avg
Record 72-73 58-87
R/Game 4.03 4.39 4.48
RA/Game 4.30 5.68 4.48
OPS 0.692 0.723 0.718
wOBA 0.298 0.312 0.309
ERA 3.93 5.40 4.17
FIP 3.90 4.71 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.49 1.30
K/9 8.78 8.59 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.384 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.57 5.92 4.24
BP FIP 4.00 4.63 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.60
BP K/9 8.21 9.14
BP Quality* 49.4 56.4 46.2
BP IP 292.7 538.3
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0043 (Temp: 1.0030 | Wind: 1.0013)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 4.9 - ATH 4.6
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.8 - ATH 4.6
Win Probability: TOR 52.0% - ATH 48.0%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -109 / ATH +109
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.5: 46.3%
Under 9.5: 53.7%
TOR -1.5: 36.7%
ATH +1.5: 63.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.7 - ATH 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.7 - ATH 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TOR 54.5% - ATH 45.5% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -120 / ATH +120
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML -186 -109 -13.0%
ATH ML +153 +109 +8.4%
TOR -1.5 -114 +172 -16.6%
ATH +1.5 -105 -172 +12.1%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -6.1%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +1.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Athletics +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -105 | Edge: 12.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01155
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | September 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Quinn Mathews Home: Landen Roupp
ERA: 4.38 ERA: 4.17
WHIP: 1.58 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 8.76 K/9: 8.52
BB/9: 4.38 BB/9: 4.23
FIP: 3.14 FIP: 3.6
IP: 24.7 IP: 144.7
xERA: 3.32 xERA: 3.73
xwOBA: 0.283 xwOBA: 0.299
Pitcher Edge: STL (Quinn Mathews)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL SF Lg Avg
Record 72-73 60-85
R/Game 4.56 4.19 4.48
RA/Game 4.63 4.70 4.48
OPS 0.704 0.716 0.718
wOBA 0.304 0.305 0.309
ERA 4.30 4.37 4.17
FIP 3.93 4.07 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.36 1.30
K/9 7.97 7.68 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.493 0.448 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 4.65 4.24
BP FIP 4.09 4.37 4.06
BP WHIP 1.38 1.47
BP K/9 8.12 7.06
BP Quality* 52.4 59.4 46.2
BP IP 514.3 452.7
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jason Foley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joel Kuhnel (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9796 (Temp: 0.9982 | Wind: 0.9814)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.4 - SF 4.3
Simulated Avg: STL 4.4 - SF 4.3
Win Probability: STL 50.8% - SF 49.2%
Fair Moneyline: STL -103 / SF +103
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 7.5: 58.4%
Under 7.5: 41.6%
STL -1.5: 34.9%
SF +1.5: 65.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.1 - SF 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.1 - SF 2.3
F5 Win Prob: STL 47.0% - SF 53.0% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +113 / SF -113
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML -108 -103 -1.1%
SF ML -111 +103 -3.4%
STL -1.5 +154 +187 -4.5%
SF +1.5 -188 -187 -0.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +6.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -10.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | September 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Lodolo Home: Tarik Skubal
ERA: 5.08 ERA: 2.86
WHIP: 1.52 WHIP: 0.98
K/9: 7.31 K/9: 10.81
BB/9: 3.71 BB/9: 1.5
FIP: 5.16 FIP: 2.37
IP: 85.0 IP: 132.3
xERA: 6.51 xERA: 2.99
xwOBA: 0.382 xwOBA: 0.269
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN LAD Lg Avg
Record 69-75 87-57
R/Game 4.22 4.94 4.48
RA/Game 4.97 3.86 4.48
OPS 0.708 0.755 0.718
wOBA 0.306 0.323 0.309
ERA 4.67 3.70 4.17
FIP 4.52 3.70 4.03
WHIP 1.43 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.24 9.36 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.426 0.611 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.69 4.04 4.24
BP FIP 4.57 3.80 4.06
BP WHIP 1.45 1.28
BP K/9 8.79 9.75
BP Quality* 57.0 46.6 46.2
BP IP 535.3 454.0
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Brandon Williamson (86 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Evan Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0365 (Temp: 1.0245 | Wind: 1.0117)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 3.3 - LAD 6.6
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.3 - LAD 6.6
Win Probability: CIN 22.3% - LAD 77.7%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +349 / LAD -349
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.0: 58.4%
Under 8.0: 33.2%
CIN +1.5: 35.8%
LAD -1.5: 64.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 1.5 - LAD 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 1.5 - LAD 3.8
F5 Win Prob: CIN 18.2% - LAD 81.8% (Tie: 12.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +448 / LAD -448
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +266 +349 -5.1%
LAD ML -338 -349 +0.6%
CIN +1.5 +124 +179 -8.8%
LAD -1.5 -149 -179 +4.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +6.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -19.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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