2026-09-09
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-09
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | September 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zebby Matthews Home: Keider Montero
ERA: 4.69 ERA: 3.52
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.03
K/9: 7.46 K/9: 6.04
BB/9: 2.54 BB/9: 2.01
FIP: 4.73 FIP: 3.79
IP: 117.0 IP: 143.0
xERA: 4.56 xERA: 3.42
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.287
Pitcher Edge: DET (Keider Montero)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN DET Lg Avg
Record 69-76 66-79
R/Game 4.64 4.37 4.48
RA/Game 4.97 4.03 4.48
OPS 0.726 0.708 0.718
wOBA 0.314 0.307 0.309
ERA 4.65 3.68 4.17
FIP 4.14 3.86 4.03
WHIP 1.37 1.22 1.30
K/9 8.54 8.15 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.538 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.53 4.32 4.22
BP FIP 3.97 4.49 4.06
BP WHIP 1.42 1.34
BP K/9 8.90 8.19
BP Quality* 48.8 53.1 46.1
BP IP 526.0 442.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ryan Jeffers, Byron Buxton, Alex Jackson
Ryan Jeffers Catcher OPS: 0.872 (278 AB)
Byron Buxton Outfielder OPS: 0.830 (370 AB)
Alex Jackson Catcher OPS: 0.759 (68 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.6% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Eduardo Valencia, Gleyber Torres, Spencer Torkelson
Eduardo Valencia Designated Hitter OPS: 0.897 (93 AB)
Gleyber Torres Second Base OPS: 0.753 (322 AB)
Spencer Torkelson First Base OPS: 0.716 (480 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 34%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9829 (Temp: 1.0097 | Wind: 0.9734)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 3.9 - DET 4.4
Simulated Avg: MIN 3.9 - DET 4.4
Win Probability: MIN 45.0% - DET 55.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +122 / DET -122
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 45.2%
Under 8.5: 54.8%
MIN -1.5: 29.0%
DET +1.5: 71.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 1.9 - DET 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 1.9 - DET 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIN 40.8% - DET 59.2% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +145 / DET -145
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML -103 +122 -5.8%
DET ML -117 -122 +1.1%
MIN -1.5 +164 +245 -8.9%
DET +1.5 -200 -245 +4.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics
Regular Season | September 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Braydon Fisher Home: Brady Basso
ERA: 3.2 ERA: 4.32
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 8.7 K/9: 6.48
BB/9: 4.86 BB/9: 1.35
FIP: 4.08 FIP: 3.28
IP: 70.3 IP: 33.3
xERA: 3.89 xERA: 3.84
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Brady Basso)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR ATH Lg Avg
Record 73-73 58-88
R/Game 4.03 4.38 4.48
RA/Game 4.29 5.67 4.48
OPS 0.693 0.722 0.718
wOBA 0.299 0.311 0.309
ERA 3.92 5.39 4.17
FIP 3.91 4.71 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.49 1.30
K/9 8.76 8.57 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.472 0.384 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.57 5.87 4.22
BP FIP 4.00 4.61 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.60
BP K/9 8.21 9.13
BP Quality* 43.4 59.1 46.1
BP IP 292.7 542.3
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Geoff Hartlieb (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Chris Roycroft (35 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0186 (Temp: 1.0294 | Wind: 0.9895)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 4.4 - ATH 4.3
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.4 - ATH 4.3
Win Probability: TOR 50.2% - ATH 49.8%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -101 / ATH +101
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 9.5: 40.0%
Under 9.5: 60.0%
TOR -1.5: 34.0%
ATH +1.5: 66.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.1 - ATH 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.1 - ATH 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TOR 45.6% - ATH 54.4% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +119 / ATH -119
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -181 -101 -14.3%
ATH ML +149 +101 +9.7%
TOR -1.5 -114 +194 -19.3%
ATH +1.5 -106 -194 +14.5%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -12.4%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +7.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Athletics +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -106 | Edge: 14.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01156
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | September 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andre Pallante Home: Blade Tidwell
ERA: 3.51 ERA: 4.43
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 6.26 K/9: 7.59
BB/9: 2.87 BB/9: 3.8
FIP: 3.59 FIP: 4.2
IP: 141.0 IP: 42.7
xERA: 3.89 xERA: 4.09
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: STL (Andre Pallante)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL SF Lg Avg
Record 72-74 61-85
R/Game 4.53 4.18 4.48
RA/Game 4.61 4.68 4.48
OPS 0.702 0.716 0.718
wOBA 0.304 0.305 0.309
ERA 4.29 4.35 4.17
FIP 3.94 4.07 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.36 1.30
K/9 7.96 7.64 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.492 0.448 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.53 4.64 4.22
BP FIP 4.09 4.37 4.06
BP WHIP 1.38 1.47
BP K/9 8.12 7.03
BP Quality* 52.3 54.9 46.1
BP IP 516.3 455.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Joel Kuhnel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0053 (Temp: 1.0249 | Wind: 0.9809)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 4.6 - SF 4.0
Simulated Avg: STL 4.6 - SF 4.0
Win Probability: STL 56.0% - SF 44.0%
Fair Moneyline: STL -128 / SF +128
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 48.1%
Under 8.5: 51.8%
STL -1.5: 39.5%
SF +1.5: 60.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.4 - SF 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.4 - SF 2.0
F5 Win Prob: STL 57.7% - SF 42.3% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: STL -136 / SF +136
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML -119 -128 +1.7%
SF ML -101 +128 -6.3%
STL -1.5 +139 +153 -2.4%
SF +1.5 -169 -153 -2.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | September 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jackson Kent Home: Walker Buehler
ERA: 5.55 ERA: 4.56
WHIP: 1.68 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 7.77 K/9: 7.72
BB/9: 7.03 BB/9: 3.37
FIP: 4.25 FIP: 4.22
IP: 24.3 IP: 136.3
xERA: 5.18 xERA: 4.14
xwOBA: 0.347 xwOBA: 0.314
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH SD Lg Avg
Record 67-80 77-68
R/Game 5.13 4.21 4.48
RA/Game 5.08 4.14 4.48
OPS 0.752 0.699 0.718
wOBA 0.322 0.302 0.309
ERA 4.72 3.90 4.17
FIP 4.55 4.01 4.03
WHIP 1.39 1.28 1.30
K/9 7.91 8.28 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.504 0.508 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.12 2.83 4.22
BP FIP 5.14 2.99 4.06
BP WHIP 1.60 1.15
BP K/9 8.60 11.13
BP Quality* 62.5 40.5 46.1
BP IP 476.3 301.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Zak Kent (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jared Simpson (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Adrian Morejon (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0112 (Temp: 1.0298 | Wind: 0.9819)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 4.7 - SD 5.3
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.7 - SD 5.3
Win Probability: WSH 44.0% - SD 56.0%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +127 / SD -127
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 8.5: 60.0%
Under 8.5: 40.0%
WSH +1.5: 59.1%
SD -1.5: 40.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.8 - SD 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.8 - SD 2.8
F5 Win Prob: WSH 50.8% - SD 49.2% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -103 / SD +103
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +141 +127 +2.5%
SD ML -171 -127 -7.1%
WSH +1.5 -155 -144 -1.7%
SD -1.5 +128 +144 -3.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +7.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -12.4%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.6%
Fair ML: -150 | Kelly: 4.02%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01157
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | September 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cody Bradford Home: Kade Anderson
ERA: 4.45 ERA: 5.4
WHIP: 1.58 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 4.75 K/9: 6.6
BB/9: 2.08 BB/9: 4.2
FIP: 4.45 FIP: 5.63
IP: 30.3 IP: 15.0
xERA: 5.46 xERA: 3.15
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.276
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Cody Bradford)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX SEA Lg Avg
Record 72-73 67-78
R/Game 4.17 3.96 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 4.48 4.48
OPS 0.719 0.684 0.718
wOBA 0.310 0.299 0.309
ERA 4.30 4.24 4.17
FIP 4.01 3.87 4.03
WHIP 1.31 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.62 8.65 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.443 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.50 4.38 4.22
BP FIP 4.27 4.13 4.06
BP WHIP 1.39 1.37
BP K/9 8.42 8.63
BP Quality* 49.9 47.1 46.1
BP IP 505.7 478.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Adam Macko (40 pitches yesterday)
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0300 (Temp: 1.0026 | Wind: 1.0274)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 4.3 - SEA 4.4
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.3 - SEA 4.4
Win Probability: TEX 48.8% - SEA 51.2%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +105 / SEA -105
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.0: 48.2%
Under 8.0: 42.2%
TEX +1.5: 65.1%
SEA -1.5: 34.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 2.5 - SEA 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.5 - SEA 2.5
F5 Win Prob: TEX 50.6% - SEA 49.4% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -102 / SEA +102
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML +123 +105 +3.9%
SEA ML -149 -105 -8.6%
TEX +1.5 -168 -186 +2.4%
SEA -1.5 +139 +186 -6.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | September 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Foster Griffin Home: Shane Baz
ERA: 3.26 ERA: 3.91
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 7.97 K/9: 7.99
BB/9: 2.3 BB/9: 3.14
FIP: 3.96 FIP: 3.33
IP: 160.3 IP: 163.3
xERA: 4.26 xERA: 4.03
xwOBA: 0.318 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Shane Baz)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE BAL Lg Avg
Record 74-72 70-76
R/Game 4.06 4.47 4.48
RA/Game 4.14 4.68 4.48
OPS 0.686 0.710 0.718
wOBA 0.298 0.307 0.309
ERA 3.77 4.14 4.17
FIP 3.72 3.96 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.34 1.30
K/9 9.53 8.12 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.491 0.479 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.60 4.11 4.22
BP FIP 3.46 3.71 4.06
BP WHIP 1.27 1.31
BP K/9 10.07 8.85
BP Quality* 44.9 49.8 46.1
BP IP 500.7 484.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Craig Yoho (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Luis De León (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9917 (Temp: 1.0188 | Wind: 0.9735)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 3.9 - BAL 4.4
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.9 - BAL 4.4
Win Probability: CLE 44.8% - BAL 55.2%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +123 / BAL -123
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 44.9%
Under 8.5: 55.1%
CLE -1.5: 28.9%
BAL +1.5: 71.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.0 - BAL 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.0 - BAL 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CLE 43.7% - BAL 56.3% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +129 / BAL -129
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML -118 +123 -9.3%
BAL ML -102 -123 +4.7%
CLE -1.5 +144 +246 -12.1%
BAL +1.5 -175 -246 +7.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.7%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (Run Line) [-175]
Model: 71.1% | Market: 63.6% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -246 | Kelly: 5.14%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01158
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | September 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Hunter Brown Home: Cristopher Sánchez
ERA: 3.31 ERA: 2.58
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 9.62 K/9: 10.27
BB/9: 4.76 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 4.04 FIP: 2.52
IP: 87.0 IP: 181.3
xERA: 3.52 xERA: 3.22
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.279
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU PHI Lg Avg
Record 74-71 81-64
R/Game 4.50 4.46 4.48
RA/Game 4.76 4.23 4.48
OPS 0.723 0.712 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.306 0.309
ERA 4.51 3.98 4.17
FIP 4.36 3.62 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.27 1.30
K/9 8.87 9.93 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.475 0.525 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 4.15 4.22
BP FIP 4.21 3.60 4.06
BP WHIP 1.28 1.31
BP K/9 9.11 10.09
BP Quality* 47.3 44.6 46.1
BP IP 502.0 477.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brooks Raley (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9853 (Temp: 1.0135 | Wind: 0.9722)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 3.5 - PHI 4.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 3.5 - PHI 4.3
Win Probability: HOU 41.5% - PHI 58.5%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +141 / PHI -141
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.0: 40.7%
Under 8.0: 49.6%
HOU +1.5: 59.3%
PHI -1.5: 40.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 1.7 - PHI 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 1.7 - PHI 2.2
F5 Win Prob: HOU 39.1% - PHI 60.9% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +156 / PHI -156
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +129 +141 -2.2%
PHI ML -156 -141 -2.4%
HOU +1.5 -163 -146 -2.7%
PHI -1.5 +135 +146 -1.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -11.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -2.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | September 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Robert Stock Home: Janson Junk
ERA: 5.81 ERA: 4.0
WHIP: 1.75 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 8.54 K/9: 6.17
BB/9: 4.44 BB/9: 2.42
FIP: 3.67 FIP: 3.98
IP: 26.3 IP: 108.0
xERA: 4.53 xERA: 4.23
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.317
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Robert Stock)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM MIA Lg Avg
Record 67-78 72-74
R/Game 4.22 4.38 4.48
RA/Game 4.50 4.33 4.48
OPS 0.700 0.724 0.718
wOBA 0.302 0.313 0.309
ERA 4.12 4.02 4.17
FIP 3.88 3.92 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.27 1.30
K/9 9.04 8.28 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.506 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.19 4.47 4.22
BP FIP 4.16 3.89 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.33
BP K/9 9.29 8.84
BP Quality* 52.2 52.2 46.1
BP IP 296.3 483.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Kodai Senga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nate Lavender (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dedniel Núñez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Pintaro (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Dax Fulton (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jack Ralston (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0063 (Temp: 1.0154 | Wind: 0.9910)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 4.0 - MIA 4.8
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.0 - MIA 4.8
Win Probability: NYM 42.2% - MIA 57.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +137 / MIA -137
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 49.9%
Under 8.5: 50.1%
NYM +1.5: 58.6%
MIA -1.5: 41.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.1 - MIA 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.1 - MIA 2.6
F5 Win Prob: NYM 41.2% - MIA 58.8% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +143 / MIA -143
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML +104 +137 -6.8%
MIA ML -126 -137 +2.1%
NYM +1.5 -194 -141 -7.4%
MIA -1.5 +159 +141 +2.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | September 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Johnson Home: Jake Bennett
ERA: 5.17 ERA: 3.34
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.02
K/9: 6.66 K/9: 7.31
BB/9: 4.37 BB/9: 1.63
FIP: 5.73 FIP: 3.19
IP: 78.3 IP: 99.7
xERA: 5.29 xERA: 3.22
xwOBA: 0.35 xwOBA: 0.279
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Jake Bennett)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA BOS Lg Avg
Record 55-90 80-66
R/Game 4.03 4.44 4.48
RA/Game 4.55 3.86 4.48
OPS 0.679 0.726 0.718
wOBA 0.295 0.312 0.309
ERA 4.20 3.61 4.17
FIP 3.97 3.56 4.03
WHIP 1.34 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.11 8.74 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.445 0.563 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.59 3.49 4.22
BP FIP 4.21 3.51 4.06
BP WHIP 1.42 1.24
BP K/9 9.17 9.39
BP Quality* 48.5 41.6 46.1
BP IP 380.0 404.3
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Raymond Burgos (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 25 mph)
Precip Chance: 23%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9893 (Temp: 1.0037 | Wind: 0.9856)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 3.4 - BOS 5.7
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.4 - BOS 5.6
Win Probability: LAA 29.1% - BOS 70.9%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +243 / BOS -243
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 9.0: 42.8%
Under 9.0: 48.3%
LAA +1.5: 44.4%
BOS -1.5: 55.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 1.8 - BOS 3.4
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.8 - BOS 3.4
F5 Win Prob: LAA 26.1% - BOS 73.9% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +283 / BOS -283
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +178 +243 -6.8%
BOS ML -218 -243 +2.3%
LAA +1.5 -112 +125 -8.5%
BOS -1.5 -108 -125 +3.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -9.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -4.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | September 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tomoyuki Sugano Home: Will Warren
ERA: 5.19 ERA: 4.16
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 5.4 K/9: 8.78
BB/9: 2.05 BB/9: 3.1
FIP: 5.25 FIP: 4.09
IP: 131.7 IP: 136.3
xERA: 6.8 xERA: 4.53
xwOBA: 0.389 xwOBA: 0.327
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Will Warren)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL NYY Lg Avg
Record 55-89 82-62
R/Game 4.74 4.52 4.48
RA/Game 5.72 3.69 4.48
OPS 0.739 0.719 0.718
wOBA 0.318 0.309 0.309
ERA 5.46 3.22 4.17
FIP 4.64 3.56 4.03
WHIP 1.52 1.16 1.30
K/9 7.02 9.02 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.414 0.591 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.78 3.09 4.22
BP FIP 4.29 3.90 4.06
BP WHIP 1.52 1.20
BP K/9 7.61 8.20
BP Quality* 53.7 40.5 46.1
BP IP 289.7 512.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Blas Castaño (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mark Manfredi (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9964 (Temp: 1.0090 | Wind: 0.9875)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.5 - NYY 6.0
Simulated Avg: COL 4.5 - NYY 5.9
Win Probability: COL 37.1% - NYY 62.9%
Fair Moneyline: COL +170 / NYY -170
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 9.0: 54.6%
Under 9.0: 37.0%
COL +1.5: 51.6%
NYY -1.5: 48.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.6 - NYY 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.6 - NYY 3.5
F5 Win Prob: COL 38.5% - NYY 61.6% (Tie: 13.4%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +160 / NYY -160
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +208 +170 +4.6%
NYY ML -258 -170 -9.1%
COL +1.5 -102 -107 +1.1%
NYY -1.5 -118 +107 -5.7%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +2.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -15.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | September 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Griffin Jax Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB ATL Lg Avg
Record 86-58 85-60
R/Game 4.54 4.59 4.48
RA/Game 4.17 3.81 4.48
OPS 0.734 0.719 0.718
wOBA 0.314 0.309 0.309
ERA 3.80 3.57 4.17
FIP 3.96 3.95 4.03
WHIP 1.15 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.18 8.59 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.539 0.584 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.46 3.12 4.22
BP FIP 3.92 3.39 4.06
BP WHIP 1.12 1.14
BP K/9 8.70 9.33
BP Quality* 43.9 40.5 46.1
BP IP 410.7 381.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Elieser Hernández (49 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brent Suter (45 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0125 (Temp: 1.0212 | Wind: 0.9915)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.4 - ATL 4.7
Simulated Avg: TB 4.3 - ATL 4.7
Win Probability: TB 46.4% - ATL 53.6%
Fair Moneyline: TB +116 / ATL -116
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 51.9%
Under 8.5: 48.0%
TB +1.5: 62.6%
ATL -1.5: 37.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.6 - ATL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.6 - ATL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: TB 48.5% - ATL 51.4% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +106 / ATL -106
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML +104 +116 -2.6%
ATL ML -125 -116 -1.9%
TB +1.5 -199 -167 -4.0%
ATL -1.5 +163 +167 -0.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | September 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zac Gallen Home: Daniel Lynch IV
ERA: 6.34 ERA: 3.51
WHIP: 1.56 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 5.6 K/9: 6.21
BB/9: 2.85 BB/9: 2.7
FIP: 5.19 FIP: 3.59
IP: 98.0 IP: 66.7
xERA: 6.59 xERA: 4.03
xwOBA: 0.384 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: KC (Daniel Lynch IV)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI KC Lg Avg
Record 78-68 64-82
R/Game 4.42 4.27 4.48
RA/Game 4.41 4.90 4.48
OPS 0.707 0.717 0.718
wOBA 0.304 0.308 0.309
ERA 4.09 4.67 4.17
FIP 4.19 4.48 4.03
WHIP 1.28 1.39 1.30
K/9 6.98 7.40 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.501 0.438 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.52 6.03 4.22
BP FIP 3.54 5.37 4.06
BP WHIP 1.20 1.65
BP K/9 7.73 7.52
BP Quality* 47.9 69.9 46.1
BP IP 475.3 497.0
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Anthony Gose (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Lange (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Connor Thomas (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jose Cuas (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nolan Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 22%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0157 (Temp: 1.0133 | Wind: 1.0023)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.8 - KC 5.6
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.8 - KC 5.6
Win Probability: ARI 43.0% - KC 57.0%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +133 / KC -133
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 8.5: 62.4%
Under 8.5: 37.6%
ARI -1.5: 29.5%
KC +1.5: 70.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.2 - KC 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.2 - KC 3.5
F5 Win Prob: ARI 31.9% - KC 68.0% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +213 / KC -213
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -120 +133 -11.6%
KC ML +100 -133 +7.0%
ARI -1.5 +137 +239 -12.7%
KC +1.5 -166 -239 +8.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +10.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -14.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Kansas City Royals +1.5 (Run Line) [-166]
Model: 70.5% | Market: 62.4% | Edge: 8.1%
Fair ML: -239 | Kelly: 5.40%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01159
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | September 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Lake Bachar Home: Davis Martin
ERA: 3.59 ERA: 4.13
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 9.27 K/9: 7.85
BB/9: 3.71 BB/9: 2.76
FIP: 4.45 FIP: 3.47
IP: 77.7 IP: 130.7
xERA: 3.54 xERA: 4.63
xwOBA: 0.292 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Davis Martin)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT CWS Lg Avg
Record 72-73 75-69
R/Game 4.85 4.74 4.48
RA/Game 4.63 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.734 0.725 0.718
wOBA 0.319 0.312 0.309
ERA 4.17 4.15 4.17
FIP 3.67 4.09 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.31 1.30
K/9 9.25 8.38 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.521 0.530 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.73 4.22 4.22
BP FIP 3.56 4.39 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.38
BP K/9 9.56 8.10
BP Quality* 41.9 52.7 46.1
BP IP 463.3 326.7
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: José Urquidy (65 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Schweitzer (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9963 (Temp: 1.0068 | Wind: 0.9897)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 4.9 - CWS 4.5
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.9 - CWS 4.5
Win Probability: PIT 53.9% - CWS 46.1%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -117 / CWS +117
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.5: 54.4%
Under 8.5: 45.6%
PIT +1.5: 69.0%
CWS -1.5: 31.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.6 - CWS 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.6 - CWS 2.5
F5 Win Prob: PIT 51.8% - CWS 48.2% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -107 / CWS +107
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +113 -117 +7.0%
CWS ML -136 +117 -11.6%
PIT +1.5 -181 -222 +4.6%
CWS -1.5 +149 +222 -9.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +2.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | September 09, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kevin Gausman Home: Logan Henderson
ERA: 4.38 ERA: 2.48
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 0.79
K/9: 9.15 K/9: 10.04
BB/9: 2.44 BB/9: 1.51
FIP: 3.56 FIP: 3.24
IP: 162.3 IP: 83.3
xERA: 3.89 xERA: 2.64
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.253
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Logan Henderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC MIL Lg Avg
Record 81-65 90-56
R/Game 5.30 5.03 4.48
RA/Game 4.41 3.86 4.48
OPS 0.769 0.739 0.718
wOBA 0.331 0.318 0.309
ERA 4.20 3.53 4.17
FIP 4.57 3.59 4.03
WHIP 1.27 1.19 1.30
K/9 7.81 9.64 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.583 0.618 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.65 3.43 4.22
BP FIP 4.66 3.56 4.06
BP WHIP 1.38 1.26
BP K/9 8.70 9.07
BP Quality* 52.0 49.5 46.1
BP IP 506.7 501.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Trevor Megill (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0107 (Temp: 1.0091 | Wind: 1.0016)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 4.4 - MIL 5.2
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.4 - MIL 5.2
Win Probability: CHC 42.3% - MIL 57.7%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +136 / MIL -136
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 7.5: 64.7%
Under 7.5: 35.3%
CHC +1.5: 58.0%
MIL -1.5: 42.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 2.0 - MIL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.0 - MIL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CHC 39.0% - MIL 61.0% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +157 / MIL -157
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML +109 +136 -5.5%
MIL ML -131 -136 +1.0%
CHC +1.5 -193 -138 -7.9%
MIL -1.5 +158 +138 +3.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +12.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -17.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01160
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | September 09, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Rhett Lowder Home: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
ERA: 5.43 ERA: 2.67
WHIP: 1.49 WHIP: 0.9
K/9: 6.98 K/9: 8.78
BB/9: 3.65 BB/9: 2.07
FIP: 4.56 FIP: 3.26
IP: 116.0 IP: 165.0
xERA: 5.18 xERA: 3.03
xwOBA: 0.347 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN LAD Lg Avg
Record 69-76 88-57
R/Game 4.21 4.92 4.48
RA/Game 4.96 3.85 4.48
OPS 0.707 0.755 0.718
wOBA 0.305 0.324 0.309
ERA 4.66 3.69 4.17
FIP 4.52 3.70 4.03
WHIP 1.43 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.24 9.35 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.425 0.611 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.66 4.03 4.22
BP FIP 4.57 3.79 4.06
BP WHIP 1.45 1.28
BP K/9 8.75 9.78
BP Quality* 53.9 45.1 46.1
BP IP 538.7 455.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Graham Ashcraft (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0126 (Temp: 1.0220 | Wind: 0.9907)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 3.4 - LAD 5.8
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.4 - LAD 5.9
Win Probability: CIN 26.8% - LAD 73.2%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +273 / LAD -273
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 53.3%
Under 8.5: 46.7%
CIN +1.5: 41.8%
LAD -1.5: 58.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CIN 1.6 - LAD 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 1.7 - LAD 3.2
F5 Win Prob: CIN 25.8% - LAD 74.2% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +288 / LAD -288
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +238 +273 -2.7%
LAD ML -299 -273 -1.8%
CIN +1.5 +108 +139 -6.3%
LAD -1.5 -130 -139 +1.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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