2026-09-10
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-10
Games: 5 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | September 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Martinez Home: Martín Pérez
ERA: 3.04 ERA: 3.25
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 5.34 K/9: 6.79
BB/9: 1.35 BB/9: 3.9
FIP: 3.91 FIP: 4.25
IP: 160.0 IP: 124.7
xERA: 4.21 xERA: 4.76
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.334
Pitcher Edge: TB (Nick Martinez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB ATL Lg Avg
Record 87-58 85-61
R/Game 4.56 4.58 4.49
RA/Game 4.16 3.84 4.49
OPS 0.734 0.718 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.81 3.59 4.18
FIP 3.96 3.95 4.04
WHIP 1.15 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.16 8.58 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.542 0.580 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.47 3.37 4.23
BP FIP 3.91 3.52 4.06
BP WHIP 1.12 1.19
BP K/9 8.70 9.16
BP Quality* 43.9 39.4 46.1
BP IP 412.7 395.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Steven Matz (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Liam Hicks, Jonathan Aranda, Victor Mesa Jr., Richie Palacios
Liam Hicks Catcher OPS: 0.815 (441 AB)
Jonathan Aranda First Base OPS: 0.787 (534 AB)
Victor Mesa Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.758 (189 AB)
Richie Palacios Second Base OPS: 0.691 (311 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.7% of full strength
ATL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ozzie Albies, Dominic Smith, Mike Yastrzemski
Ozzie Albies Second Base OPS: 0.710 (558 AB)
Dominic Smith Designated Hitter OPS: 0.696 (260 AB)
Mike Yastrzemski Outfielder OPS: 0.673 (320 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 87°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (87°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0134 (Temp: 1.0219 | Wind: 0.9917)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 3.9 - ATL 4.3
Simulated Avg: TB 3.9 - ATL 4.3
Win Probability: TB 46.0% - ATL 54.0%
Fair Moneyline: TB +118 / ATL -118
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 44.6%
Under 8.5: 55.4%
TB +1.5: 63.3%
ATL -1.5: 36.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.4 - ATL 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.3 - ATL 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TB 50.5% - ATL 49.5% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -102 / ATL +102
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +105 +118 -2.8%
ATL ML -127 -118 -1.9%
TB +1.5 -205 -172 -3.9%
ATL -1.5 +168 +172 -0.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | September 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cristian Javier Home: Zack Wheeler
ERA: 5.98 ERA: 3.23
WHIP: 1.55 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 9.06 K/9: 10.76
BB/9: 3.99 BB/9: 2.84
FIP: 4.77 FIP: 3.56
IP: 49.7 IP: 136.3
xERA: 4.96 xERA: 3.04
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU PHI Lg Avg
Record 74-72 82-64
R/Game 4.52 4.51 4.49
RA/Game 4.80 4.25 4.49
OPS 0.725 0.713 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.307 0.310
ERA 4.55 4.00 4.18
FIP 4.36 3.63 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.27 1.30
K/9 8.90 9.90 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.472 0.527 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.19 4.14 4.23
BP FIP 4.23 3.59 4.06
BP WHIP 1.29 1.31
BP K/9 9.13 10.08
BP Quality* 49.2 43.0 46.1
BP IP 503.0 480.3
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tatsuya Imai (43 pitches yesterday)
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Carlos Correa, Yainer Diaz, Nick Allen
Carlos Correa Shortstop OPS: 0.787 (122 AB)
Yainer Diaz Catcher OPS: 0.730 (285 AB)
Nick Allen Second Base OPS: 0.678 (131 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.3% of full strength
PHI (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Bryan De La Cruz, Derek Hill
Bryan De La Cruz Outfielder OPS: 0.881 (56 AB)
Derek Hill Outfielder OPS: 0.734 (187 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), crosswind (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0181 (Temp: 1.0246 | Wind: 0.9936)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 3.7 - PHI 5.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 3.7 - PHI 5.3
Win Probability: HOU 34.8% - PHI 65.2%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +187 / PHI -187
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 51.4%
Under 8.5: 48.5%
HOU +1.5: 50.8%
PHI -1.5: 49.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 1.9 - PHI 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 1.9 - PHI 3.1
F5 Win Prob: HOU 32.2% - PHI 67.8% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +211 / PHI -211
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +158 +187 -3.9%
PHI ML -192 -187 -0.6%
HOU +1.5 -136 -103 -6.8%
PHI -1.5 +112 +103 +2.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -3.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | September 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob deGrom Home: Logan Gilbert
ERA: 3.96 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 10.93 K/9: 9.6
BB/9: 2.39 BB/9: 2.29
FIP: 3.19 FIP: 3.78
IP: 143.3 IP: 165.0
xERA: 3.55 xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: 0.292 xwOBA: 0.299
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Jacob deGrom)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TEX SEA Lg Avg
Record 72-74 68-78
R/Game 4.16 3.95 4.49
RA/Game 4.43 4.47 4.49
OPS 0.719 0.684 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.298 0.310
ERA 4.29 4.22 4.18
FIP 4.01 3.87 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.60 8.66 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.444 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TEX SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.49 4.37 4.23
BP FIP 4.27 4.15 4.06
BP WHIP 1.39 1.36
BP K/9 8.42 8.65
BP Quality* 48.3 47.0 46.1
BP IP 507.7 481.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9878 (Temp: 0.9929 | Wind: 0.9949)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TEX 3.6 - SEA 3.5
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.6 - SEA 3.5
Win Probability: TEX 51.2% - SEA 48.8%
Fair Moneyline: TEX -105 / SEA +105
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 6.5: 52.6%
Under 6.5: 47.4%
TEX +1.5: 70.0%
SEA -1.5: 30.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TEX 1.9 - SEA 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 1.9 - SEA 1.7
F5 Win Prob: TEX 54.0% - SEA 46.0% (Tie: 20.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -117 / SEA +117
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TEX ML +108 -105 +3.1%
SEA ML -130 +105 -7.7%
TEX +1.5 -217 -233 +1.5%
SEA -1.5 +177 +233 -6.1%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +0.2%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -5.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | September 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Feltner Home: Max Fried
ERA: 5.91 ERA: 2.73
WHIP: 1.58 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 6.83 K/9: 8.18
BB/9: 4.05 BB/9: 2.73
FIP: 5.25 FIP: 2.6
IP: 106.7 IP: 95.7
xERA: 5.23 xERA: 2.54
xwOBA: 0.348 xwOBA: 0.248
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Max Fried)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL NYY Lg Avg
Record 55-90 83-62
R/Game 4.71 4.53 4.49
RA/Game 5.72 3.68 4.49
OPS 0.738 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.317 0.309 0.310
ERA 5.47 3.21 4.18
FIP 4.66 3.56 4.04
WHIP 1.52 1.16 1.30
K/9 7.02 9.03 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.412 0.595 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.78 3.07 4.23
BP FIP 4.32 3.89 4.06
BP WHIP 1.52 1.19
BP K/9 7.59 8.20
BP Quality* 52.3 40.4 46.1
BP IP 291.7 515.7
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (33 pitches yesterday)
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0109 (Temp: 1.0138 | Wind: 0.9971)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 3.4 - NYY 5.7
Simulated Avg: COL 3.4 - NYY 5.7
Win Probability: COL 28.1% - NYY 71.9%
Fair Moneyline: COL +256 / NYY -256
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 52.7%
Under 8.5: 47.3%
COL +1.5: 43.4%
NYY -1.5: 56.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 1.6 - NYY 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 1.6 - NYY 3.3
F5 Win Prob: COL 24.1% - NYY 75.8% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +314 / NYY -314
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +239 +256 -1.4%
NYY ML -301 -256 -3.2%
COL +1.5 +109 +130 -4.4%
NYY -1.5 -131 -130 -0.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | September 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jared Jones Home: Hagen Smith
ERA: 4.46 ERA: 0.56
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 0.94
K/9: 10.53 K/9: 12.94
BB/9: 3.2 BB/9: 5.63
FIP: 3.81 FIP: 2.91
IP: 78.7 IP: 16.0
xERA: 3.63 xERA: 2.88
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.264
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Hagen Smith)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CWS Lg Avg
Record 73-73 75-70
R/Game 4.84 4.72 4.49
RA/Game 4.61 4.44 4.49
OPS 0.734 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.319 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.15 4.14 4.18
FIP 3.66 4.09 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.31 1.30
K/9 9.29 8.36 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.523 0.528 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.74 4.18 4.23
BP FIP 3.58 4.35 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.37
BP K/9 9.57 8.14
BP Quality* 45.1 49.3 46.1
BP IP 466.3 329.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Sean Newcomb (42 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0312 (Temp: 0.9975 | Wind: 1.0338)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.0 - CWS 4.7
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.0 - CWS 4.7
Win Probability: PIT 42.7% - CWS 57.3%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +134 / CWS -134
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.5: 58.6%
Under 7.5: 41.4%
PIT -1.5: 27.6%
CWS +1.5: 72.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 1.8 - CWS 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 1.8 - CWS 2.6
F5 Win Prob: PIT 36.0% - CWS 64.0% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +178 / CWS -178
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML -110 +134 -9.7%
CWS ML -110 -134 +4.9%
PIT -1.5 +151 +263 -12.3%
CWS +1.5 -183 -263 +7.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +6.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -11.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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