2026-09-11
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-11
Games: 15 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | September 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Wilber Dotel Home: Shota Imanaga
ERA: 4.41 ERA: 3.91
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 9.37 K/9: 8.75
BB/9: 3.86 BB/9: 2.01
FIP: 3.1 FIP: 4.57
IP: 32.7 IP: 156.3
xERA: 3.73 xERA: 3.81
xwOBA: 0.299 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Wilber Dotel)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CHC Lg Avg
Record 74-73 81-66
R/Game 4.82 5.31 4.48
RA/Game 4.58 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.734 0.768 0.718
wOBA 0.318 0.330 0.309
ERA 4.13 4.22 4.17
FIP 3.64 4.58 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.27 1.30
K/9 9.30 7.83 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.524 0.581 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.74 4.63 4.23
BP FIP 3.57 4.64 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.37
BP K/9 9.59 8.71
BP Quality* 46.5 53.2 46.1
BP IP 467.3 509.7
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9968 (Temp: 1.0045 | Wind: 0.9923)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 5.2 - CHC 5.2
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.2 - CHC 5.2
Win Probability: PIT 49.8% - CHC 50.2%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +101 / CHC -101
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 8.0: 62.8%
Under 8.0: 29.4%
PIT +1.5: 64.1%
CHC -1.5: 35.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.7 - CHC 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.7 - CHC 2.7
F5 Win Prob: PIT 50.1% - CHC 49.9% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -100 / CHC +100
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML +163 +101 +11.7%
CHC ML -199 -101 -16.3%
PIT +1.5 -126 -179 +8.4%
CHC -1.5 +105 +179 -12.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +10.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -23.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01161
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | September 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mason Adams Home: Framber Valdez
ERA: 3.95 ERA: 4.17
WHIP: 1.61 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 11.2 K/9: 6.79
BB/9: 3.95 BB/9: 3.31
FIP: 5.73 FIP: 3.93
IP: 13.7 IP: 157.7
xERA: 5.99 xERA: 4.45
xwOBA: 0.369 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: DET (Framber Valdez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL DET Lg Avg
Record 55-91 67-79
R/Game 4.70 4.39 4.48
RA/Game 5.75 4.01 4.48
OPS 0.737 0.709 0.718
wOBA 0.317 0.307 0.309
ERA 5.50 3.67 4.17
FIP 4.68 3.87 4.04
WHIP 1.52 1.22 1.30
K/9 7.01 8.14 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.408 0.541 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.78 4.29 4.23
BP FIP 4.32 4.46 4.06
BP WHIP 1.52 1.34
BP K/9 7.59 8.21
BP Quality* 52.3 48.3 46.1
BP IP 291.7 445.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Zach Agnos (45 pitches yesterday)
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0101 (Temp: 1.0019 | Wind: 1.0082)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 4.7 - DET 5.2
Simulated Avg: COL 4.7 - DET 5.2
Win Probability: COL 45.3% - DET 54.7%
Fair Moneyline: COL +121 / DET -121
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.0: 58.9%
Under 8.0: 32.6%
COL +1.5: 60.6%
DET -1.5: 39.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.6 - DET 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.6 - DET 2.9
F5 Win Prob: COL 45.1% - DET 54.9% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +122 / DET -122
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +154 +121 +6.0%
DET ML -187 -121 -10.5%
COL +1.5 -143 -154 +1.7%
DET -1.5 +118 +154 -6.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +6.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -19.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | September 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Yusei Kikuchi Home: Cade Cavalli
ERA: 4.96 ERA: 3.12
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 9.0 K/9: 10.49
BB/9: 3.49 BB/9: 2.61
FIP: 4.12 FIP: 3.03
IP: 49.0 IP: 158.7
xERA: 5.16 xERA: 3.71
xwOBA: 0.346 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Cade Cavalli)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA WSH Lg Avg
Record 56-90 67-81
R/Game 4.05 5.11 4.48
RA/Game 4.55 5.11 4.48
OPS 0.682 0.750 0.718
wOBA 0.296 0.321 0.309
ERA 4.20 4.75 4.17
FIP 3.98 4.55 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.40 1.30
K/9 9.10 7.91 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.500 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 6.12 4.23
BP FIP 4.19 5.14 4.06
BP WHIP 1.42 1.60
BP K/9 9.16 8.64
BP Quality* 52.9 59.5 46.1
BP IP 383.0 479.3
Bullpen Edge: LAA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0214 (Temp: 1.0090 | Wind: 1.0123)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 4.0 - WSH 5.9
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.0 - WSH 5.9
Win Probability: LAA 32.1% - WSH 67.9%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +212 / WSH -212
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 7.5: 67.3%
Under 7.5: 32.7%
LAA +1.5: 46.9%
WSH -1.5: 53.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 1.8 - WSH 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.8 - WSH 3.2
F5 Win Prob: LAA 27.1% - WSH 72.9% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +269 / WSH -269
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +129 +212 -11.6%
WSH ML -156 -212 +7.0%
LAA +1.5 -167 +113 -15.6%
WSH -1.5 +138 -113 +11.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +14.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -19.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01162
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | September 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nolan McLean Home: Carlos Rodón
ERA: 3.06 ERA: 3.09
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 9.96 K/9: 9.84
BB/9: 3.62 BB/9: 4.78
FIP: 3.3 FIP: 3.73
IP: 161.7 IP: 64.0
xERA: 3.63 xERA: 3.9
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM NYY Lg Avg
Record 68-78 84-62
R/Game 4.29 4.57 4.48
RA/Game 4.57 3.67 4.48
OPS 0.703 0.721 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.310 0.309
ERA 4.19 3.20 4.17
FIP 3.90 3.56 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.16 1.30
K/9 9.02 9.06 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.472 0.599 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.46 3.07 4.23
BP FIP 4.24 3.88 4.06
BP WHIP 1.36 1.20
BP K/9 9.22 8.20
BP Quality* 50.7 46.4 46.1
BP IP 300.7 519.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Nate Lavender (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jonathan Pintaro (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Michael Fulmer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gil (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0056 (Temp: 1.0019 | Wind: 1.0037)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 3.9 - NYY 4.3
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.9 - NYY 4.4
Win Probability: NYM 45.2% - NYY 54.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +121 / NYY -121
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 44.8%
Under 8.0: 45.3%
NYM +1.5: 62.4%
NYY -1.5: 37.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.1 - NYY 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.0 - NYY 2.1
F5 Win Prob: NYM 49.7% - NYY 50.3% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +101 / NYY -101
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +114 +121 -1.6%
NYY ML -137 -121 -3.0%
NYM +1.5 -181 -166 -2.0%
NYY -1.5 +149 +166 -2.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | September 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Chris Bassitt Home: Max Scherzer
ERA: 4.96 ERA: 6.03
WHIP: 1.58 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 6.43 K/9: 6.89
BB/9: 3.48 BB/9: 3.88
FIP: 4.2 FIP: 5.56
IP: 85.3 IP: 62.7
xERA: 5.05 xERA: 4.21
xwOBA: 0.343 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Chris Bassitt)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TOR Lg Avg
Record 71-76 73-74
R/Game 4.50 4.01 4.48
RA/Game 4.68 4.27 4.48
OPS 0.710 0.692 0.718
wOBA 0.307 0.298 0.309
ERA 4.15 3.91 4.17
FIP 3.96 3.91 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.29 1.30
K/9 8.12 8.74 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.482 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.08 3.52 4.23
BP FIP 3.70 3.99 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.29
BP K/9 8.85 8.15
BP Quality* 43.7 43.2 46.1
BP IP 487.3 297.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9906 (Temp: 0.9899 | Wind: 1.0007)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.9 - TOR 4.3
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.9 - TOR 4.3
Win Probability: BAL 55.9% - TOR 44.1%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -127 / TOR +127
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.0: 53.0%
Under 8.0: 38.1%
BAL +1.5: 71.1%
TOR -1.5: 28.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 3.1 - TOR 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 3.1 - TOR 2.5
F5 Win Prob: BAL 58.3% - TOR 41.7% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -140 / TOR +140
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +114 -127 +9.2%
TOR ML -137 +127 -13.7%
BAL +1.5 -186 -246 +6.1%
TOR -1.5 +153 +246 -10.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +0.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | September 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Seth Lugo Home: Sonny Gray
ERA: 5.04 ERA: 2.69
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 6.74 K/9: 8.06
BB/9: 2.89 BB/9: 2.39
FIP: 4.04 FIP: 3.4
IP: 159.0 IP: 150.7
xERA: 5.09 xERA: 3.68
xwOBA: 0.344 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Sonny Gray)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC BOS Lg Avg
Record 65-82 80-67
R/Game 4.28 4.44 4.48
RA/Game 4.88 3.88 4.48
OPS 0.718 0.726 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.312 0.309
ERA 4.64 3.63 4.17
FIP 4.48 3.58 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.24 1.30
K/9 7.39 8.72 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.440 0.561 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.81 3.47 4.23
BP FIP 5.27 3.51 4.06
BP WHIP 1.62 1.25
BP K/9 7.55 9.38
BP Quality* 62.5 40.1 46.1
BP IP 491.3 407.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jose Cuas (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Gose (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9882 (Temp: 0.9954 | Wind: 0.9927)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 3.6 - BOS 5.7
Simulated Avg: KC 3.6 - BOS 5.7
Win Probability: KC 30.6% - BOS 69.3%
Fair Moneyline: KC +226 / BOS -226
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.5: 53.7%
Under 8.5: 46.3%
KC +1.5: 45.9%
BOS -1.5: 54.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 1.9 - BOS 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.9 - BOS 2.9
F5 Win Prob: KC 34.5% - BOS 65.5% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +190 / BOS -190
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +168 +226 -6.7%
BOS ML -206 -226 +2.0%
KC +1.5 -126 +118 -9.8%
BOS -1.5 +105 -118 +5.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +1.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | September 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Miguel Ullola Home: Drew Rasmussen
ERA: 3.86 ERA: 2.88
WHIP: 0.86 WHIP: 0.91
K/9: 12.86 K/9: 9.16
BB/9: 1.29 BB/9: 1.58
FIP: 4.39 FIP: 2.78
IP: 7.0 IP: 153.3
xERA: 3.73 xERA: 3.11
xwOBA: 0.299 xwOBA: 0.274
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TB Lg Avg
Record 75-72 87-59
R/Game 4.50 4.53 4.48
RA/Game 4.78 4.15 4.48
OPS 0.725 0.733 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.313 0.309
ERA 4.52 3.81 4.17
FIP 4.34 3.95 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.15 1.30
K/9 8.90 8.13 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.540 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.16 3.52 4.23
BP FIP 4.21 3.91 4.06
BP WHIP 1.28 1.12
BP K/9 9.14 8.68
BP Quality* 51.9 45.6 46.1
BP IP 506.0 413.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 3.5 - TB 4.8
Simulated Avg: HOU 3.5 - TB 4.8
Win Probability: HOU 36.0% - TB 64.0%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +178 / TB -178
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.5: 54.4%
Under 7.5: 45.6%
HOU +1.5: 53.3%
TB -1.5: 46.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 1.7 - TB 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 1.7 - TB 2.6
F5 Win Prob: HOU 33.6% - TB 66.4% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +198 / TB -198
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +144 +178 -5.0%
TB ML -174 -178 +0.5%
HOU +1.5 -149 -114 -6.5%
TB -1.5 +123 +114 +1.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -6.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | September 11, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Ryan Gusto
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD MIA Lg Avg
Record 89-57 72-75
R/Game 4.99 4.45 4.48
RA/Game 3.83 4.40 4.48
OPS 0.759 0.728 0.718
wOBA 0.325 0.315 0.309
ERA 3.67 4.10 4.17
FIP 3.69 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.28 1.30
K/9 9.38 8.27 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.619 0.505 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.99 4.54 4.23
BP FIP 3.78 3.91 4.06
BP WHIP 1.28 1.33
BP K/9 9.79 8.87
BP Quality* 43.4 49.5 46.1
BP IP 457.7 489.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Ralston (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 30%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0062 (Temp: 1.0058 | Wind: 1.0003)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.8 - MIA 4.1
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.8 - MIA 4.2
Win Probability: LAD 55.8% - MIA 44.2%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -126 / MIA +126
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 7.5: 60.2%
Under 7.5: 39.8%
LAD -1.5: 39.7%
MIA +1.5: 60.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.6 - MIA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.6 - MIA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: LAD 54.7% - MIA 45.3% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -121 / MIA +121
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -209 -126 -11.9%
MIA ML +171 +126 +7.3%
LAD -1.5 -118 +152 -14.4%
MIA +1.5 -102 -152 +9.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +7.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -12.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Miami Marlins +1.5 (Run Line) [-102]
Model: 60.3% | Market: 50.5% | Edge: 9.8%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.95%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01163
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | September 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Aaron Nola Home: Chris Sale
ERA: 4.76 ERA: 2.1
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 9.41 K/9: 11.04
BB/9: 3.02 BB/9: 1.74
FIP: 4.7 FIP: 2.01
IP: 155.0 IP: 150.0
xERA: 3.95 xERA: 3.06
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.272
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI ATL Lg Avg
Record 82-65 86-61
R/Game 4.48 4.56 4.48
RA/Game 4.23 3.82 4.48
OPS 0.712 0.717 0.718
wOBA 0.306 0.308 0.309
ERA 3.98 3.58 4.17
FIP 3.63 3.96 4.04
WHIP 1.27 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.91 8.56 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.526 0.581 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 3.38 4.23
BP FIP 3.61 3.55 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.19
BP K/9 10.06 9.16
BP Quality* 46.1 39.5 46.1
BP IP 482.3 397.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 19%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9887 (Temp: 1.0120 | Wind: 0.9770)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 3.1 - ATL 4.9
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.0 - ATL 4.9
Win Probability: PHI 31.0% - ATL 69.0%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +222 / ATL -222
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 7.0: 51.2%
Under 7.0: 38.8%
PHI +1.5: 48.5%
ATL -1.5: 51.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 1.4 - ATL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.4 - ATL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: PHI 26.6% - ATL 73.4% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +275 / ATL -275
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML +154 +222 -8.4%
ATL ML -187 -222 +3.8%
PHI +1.5 -143 +106 -10.4%
ATL -1.5 +119 -106 +5.8%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -1.2%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -13.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | September 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Abbott Home: Dustin May
ERA: 4.43 ERA: 4.69
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 7.09 K/9: 8.64
BB/9: 4.14 BB/9: 3.06
FIP: 4.78 FIP: 3.28
IP: 152.3 IP: 132.3
xERA: 4.89 xERA: 4.3
xwOBA: 0.338 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Dustin May)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN MIL Lg Avg
Record 69-77 91-56
R/Game 4.18 5.05 4.48
RA/Game 5.02 3.88 4.48
OPS 0.706 0.739 0.718
wOBA 0.305 0.318 0.309
ERA 4.73 3.56 4.17
FIP 4.55 3.59 4.04
WHIP 1.43 1.19 1.30
K/9 8.26 9.64 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.417 0.618 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.74 3.47 4.23
BP FIP 4.63 3.55 4.06
BP WHIP 1.45 1.26
BP K/9 8.78 9.06
BP Quality* 54.5 40.5 46.1
BP IP 543.3 503.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9802 (Temp: 0.9976 | Wind: 0.9825)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.7 - MIL 5.8
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.7 - MIL 5.8
Win Probability: CIN 30.8% - MIL 69.2%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +224 / MIL -224
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.0: 55.6%
Under 8.0: 35.8%
CIN +1.5: 46.0%
MIL -1.5: 54.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.1 - MIL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.1 - MIL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: CIN 35.0% - MIL 65.0% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +186 / MIL -186
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +169 +224 -6.4%
MIL ML -206 -224 +1.9%
CIN +1.5 -127 +118 -10.0%
MIL -1.5 +105 -118 +5.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +3.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -16.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | September 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Parker Messick Home: Taj Bradley
ERA: 2.53 ERA: 3.95
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 9.32 K/9: 10.39
BB/9: 2.43 BB/9: 3.84
FIP: 3.08 FIP: 3.95
IP: 167.0 IP: 159.3
xERA: 3.04 xERA: 3.92
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE MIN Lg Avg
Record 74-73 69-77
R/Game 4.07 4.62 4.48
RA/Game 4.18 4.99 4.48
OPS 0.686 0.726 0.718
wOBA 0.298 0.314 0.309
ERA 3.80 4.67 4.17
FIP 3.72 4.14 4.04
WHIP 1.27 1.38 1.30
K/9 9.54 8.56 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.488 0.465 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.55 4.52 4.23
BP FIP 3.47 3.95 4.06
BP WHIP 1.26 1.42
BP K/9 10.06 8.94
BP Quality* 40.2 47.2 46.1
BP IP 506.3 531.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 35 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9638 (Temp: 1.0048 | Wind: 0.9592)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 3.8 - MIN 3.5
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.8 - MIN 3.6
Win Probability: CLE 52.2% - MIN 47.8%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -109 / MIN +109
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 7.5: 45.0%
Under 7.5: 55.0%
CLE -1.5: 34.2%
MIN +1.5: 65.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.1 - MIN 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.0 - MIN 1.8
F5 Win Prob: CLE 55.9% - MIN 44.1% (Tie: 19.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -127 / MIN +127
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -118 -109 -1.9%
MIN ML -102 +109 -2.7%
CLE -1.5 +143 +192 -6.9%
MIN +1.5 -174 -192 +2.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -7.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +2.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | September 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Anthony Kay Home: Matthew Liberatore
ERA: 4.47 ERA: 5.57
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 7.4 K/9: 9.32
BB/9: 3.19 BB/9: 3.17
FIP: 4.36 FIP: 4.42
IP: 141.0 IP: 139.0
xERA: 4.95 xERA: 4.86
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS STL Lg Avg
Record 75-71 72-75
R/Game 4.69 4.54 4.48
RA/Game 4.42 4.63 4.48
OPS 0.722 0.702 0.718
wOBA 0.311 0.304 0.309
ERA 4.13 4.31 4.17
FIP 4.09 3.93 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.35 1.30
K/9 8.34 7.97 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.527 0.492 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 4.61 4.23
BP FIP 4.31 4.07 4.06
BP WHIP 1.36 1.38
BP K/9 8.21 8.16
BP Quality* 48.9 48.0 46.1
BP IP 332.3 519.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Erick Fedde (81 pitches yesterday)
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0053 (Temp: 1.0050 | Wind: 1.0003)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 5.1 - STL 5.0
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.1 - STL 5.0
Win Probability: CWS 50.5% - STL 49.5%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -102 / STL +102
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 8.0: 60.3%
Under 8.0: 31.3%
CWS -1.5: 36.1%
STL +1.5: 63.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 3.0 - STL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 3.0 - STL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: CWS 52.8% - STL 47.2% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -112 / STL +112
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML -114 -102 -2.8%
STL ML -106 +102 -1.9%
CWS -1.5 +151 +177 -3.7%
STL +1.5 -184 -177 -0.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +7.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -21.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.3% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.9%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.15%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01164
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics
Regular Season | September 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: George Kirby Home: Jeffrey Springs
ERA: 4.18 ERA: 6.02
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 7.51 K/9: 7.2
BB/9: 2.09 BB/9: 3.6
FIP: 3.76 FIP: 6.0
IP: 159.3 IP: 130.0
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 4.82
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA ATH Lg Avg
Record 69-78 59-88
R/Game 3.95 4.36 4.48
RA/Game 4.46 5.63 4.48
OPS 0.682 0.721 0.718
wOBA 0.298 0.311 0.309
ERA 4.21 5.35 4.17
FIP 3.87 4.70 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.49 1.30
K/9 8.69 8.58 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.445 0.385 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.35 5.82 4.23
BP FIP 4.15 4.59 4.06
BP WHIP 1.36 1.60
BP K/9 8.65 9.13
BP Quality* 51.5 55.8 46.1
BP IP 483.7 547.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Andrés Muñoz (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9762 (Temp: 0.9899 | Wind: 0.9862)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 5.0 - ATH 4.6
Simulated Avg: SEA 5.0 - ATH 4.6
Win Probability: SEA 54.0% - ATH 46.0%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -117 / ATH +117
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 10.0: 39.6%
Under 10.0: 52.0%
SEA -1.5: 39.1%
ATH +1.5: 60.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.9 - ATH 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.9 - ATH 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SEA 59.0% - ATH 41.0% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -144 / ATH +144
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -168 -117 -8.7%
ATH ML +138 +117 +4.0%
SEA -1.5 -105 +156 -12.1%
ATH +1.5 -114 -156 +7.7%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -12.8%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -0.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Athletics +1.5 (Run Line) [-114]
Model: 60.9% | Market: 53.3% | Edge: 7.7%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.10%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01165
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | September 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ARI Lg Avg
Record 72-75 78-69
R/Game 4.15 4.41 4.48
RA/Game 4.43 4.41 4.48
OPS 0.717 0.707 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.304 0.309
ERA 4.29 4.10 4.17
FIP 3.99 4.20 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.66 6.97 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.499 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.54 3.43 4.23
BP FIP 4.29 3.47 4.06
BP WHIP 1.40 1.19
BP K/9 8.46 7.84
BP Quality* 51.7 39.7 46.1
BP IP 509.7 461.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robert Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.9 - ARI 4.8
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.9 - ARI 4.7
Win Probability: TEX 41.3% - ARI 58.7%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +142 / ARI -142
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 9.0: 39.4%
Under 9.0: 51.5%
TEX +1.5: 58.3%
ARI -1.5: 41.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.3 - ARI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.3 - ARI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: TEX 46.6% - ARI 53.4% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +115 / ARI -115
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +109 +142 -6.5%
ARI ML -132 -142 +1.8%
TEX +1.5 -195 -140 -7.8%
ARI -1.5 +160 +140 +3.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -13.0%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -0.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | September 11, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Robbie Ray Home: Anthony Molina
ERA: 3.39 ERA: 2.79
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 0.88
K/9: 7.55 K/9: 6.98
BB/9: 4.58 BB/9: 1.4
FIP: 4.67 FIP: 4.03
IP: 151.3 IP: 19.3
xERA: 4.79 xERA: 3.81
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: SF (Anthony Molina)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD SF Lg Avg
Record 78-68 62-85
R/Game 4.24 4.20 4.48
RA/Game 4.12 4.69 4.48
OPS 0.703 0.716 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.305 0.309
ERA 3.88 4.34 4.17
FIP 4.01 4.07 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.27 7.63 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.513 0.450 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.82 4.66 4.23
BP FIP 3.00 4.40 4.06
BP WHIP 1.15 1.47
BP K/9 11.08 6.91
BP Quality* 37.5 50.6 46.1
BP IP 303.0 473.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Morgan (2 of last 3 days)
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 29 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), strong wind in (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9607 (Temp: 0.9862 | Wind: 0.9742)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 3.7 - SF 3.7
Simulated Avg: SD 3.7 - SF 3.7
Win Probability: SD 49.4% - SF 50.6%
Fair Moneyline: SD +102 / SF -102
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 8.0: 36.5%
Under 8.0: 53.7%
SD -1.5: 31.7%
SF +1.5: 68.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 1.9 - SF 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.9 - SF 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SD 42.5% - SF 57.5% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +135 / SF -135
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML -149 +102 -10.4%
SF ML +123 -102 +5.7%
SD -1.5 +118 +216 -14.2%
SF +1.5 -142 -216 +9.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -15.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +1.3%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] San Francisco Giants +1.5 (Run Line) [-142]
Model: 68.3% | Market: 58.7% | Edge: 9.6%
Fair ML: -216 | Kelly: 5.83%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01166