2026-09-12
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-12
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | September 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tanner Gordon Home: Andrew Sears
ERA: 5.4 ERA: 4.38
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 7.33 K/9: 5.84
BB/9: 1.64 BB/9: 2.19
FIP: 4.39 FIP: 3.59
IP: 93.3 IP: 12.3
xERA: 4.42 xERA: 3.25
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.28
Pitcher Edge: DET (Andrew Sears)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat COL DET Lg Avg
Record 55-92 68-79
R/Game 4.68 4.40 4.48
RA/Game 5.76 4.00 4.48
OPS 0.736 0.710 0.719
wOBA 0.317 0.307 0.310
ERA 5.51 3.65 4.18
FIP 4.69 3.86 4.04
WHIP 1.52 1.22 1.30
K/9 7.00 8.12 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.407 0.544 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat COL DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.89 4.28 4.24
BP FIP 4.38 4.44 4.06
BP WHIP 1.52 1.34
BP K/9 7.51 8.22
BP Quality* 53.0 48.2 46.2
BP IP 294.7 448.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Blas Castaño (34 pitches yesterday)
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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COL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Mickey Moniak, Troy Johnston, Willi Castro, Brett Sullivan
Mickey Moniak Outfielder OPS: 0.771 (369 AB)
Troy Johnston Outfielder OPS: 0.750 (372 AB)
Willi Castro Second Base OPS: 0.748 (427 AB)
Brett Sullivan Catcher OPS: 0.700 (196 AB)
Run Adjustment: 91.9% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Dillon Dingler, Gleyber Torres
Dillon Dingler Catcher OPS: 0.766 (513 AB)
Gleyber Torres Second Base OPS: 0.748 (325 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.5% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9916 (Temp: 1.0123 | Wind: 0.9796)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: COL 4.1 - DET 4.7
Simulated Avg: COL 4.1 - DET 4.7
Win Probability: COL 43.3% - DET 56.7%
Fair Moneyline: COL +131 / DET -131
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 49.9%
Under 8.5: 50.1%
COL +1.5: 59.7%
DET -1.5: 40.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: COL 2.2 - DET 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.2 - DET 2.6
F5 Win Prob: COL 43.5% - DET 56.5% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +130 / DET -130
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
COL ML +138 +131 +1.3%
DET ML -167 -131 -5.8%
COL +1.5 -155 -148 -1.0%
DET -1.5 +128 +148 -3.6%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | September 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zac Thornton Home: Gerrit Cole
ERA: 3.53 ERA: 3.41
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 6.92 K/9: 9.16
BB/9: 2.04 BB/9: 1.78
FIP: 4.4 FIP: 3.65
IP: 66.3 IP: 111.0
xERA: 4.67 xERA: 3.66
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Gerrit Cole)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM NYY Lg Avg
Record 68-79 85-62
R/Game 4.29 4.58 4.48
RA/Game 4.58 3.67 4.48
OPS 0.703 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.21 3.20 4.18
FIP 3.90 3.57 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.16 1.30
K/9 9.02 9.05 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.599 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.45 3.09 4.24
BP FIP 4.22 3.92 4.06
BP WHIP 1.36 1.20
BP K/9 9.19 8.17
BP Quality* 49.1 48.2 46.2
BP IP 303.7 522.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jack Weisenburger (41 pitches yesterday)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Brent Headrick (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Fulmer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ben Rice, Luis García Jr., Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham
Ben Rice Designated Hitter OPS: 0.877 (528 AB)
Luis García Jr. First Base OPS: 0.876 (478 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Second Base OPS: 0.715 (461 AB)
Trent Grisham Outfielder OPS: 0.703 (418 AB)
Run Adjustment: 87.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0033 (Temp: 1.0117 | Wind: 0.9917)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 4.0 - NYY 4.3
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.9 - NYY 4.2
Win Probability: NYM 46.5% - NYY 53.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +115 / NYY -115
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 44.1%
Under 8.0: 46.1%
NYM +1.5: 63.8%
NYY -1.5: 36.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.0 - NYY 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.0 - NYY 2.3
F5 Win Prob: NYM 45.0% - NYY 55.0% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +122 / NYY -122
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +136 +115 +4.1%
NYY ML -165 -115 -8.8%
NYM +1.5 -156 -176 +2.9%
NYY -1.5 +129 +176 -7.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -6.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | September 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Paul Skenes Home: Clay Holmes
ERA: 3.83 ERA: 2.83
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 10.51 K/9: 6.8
BB/9: 2.61 BB/9: 3.14
FIP: 2.89 FIP: 3.39
IP: 155.0 IP: 86.0
xERA: 3.25 xERA: 4.07
xwOBA: 0.28 xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CHC Lg Avg
Record 74-74 82-66
R/Game 4.80 5.35 4.48
RA/Game 4.63 4.42 4.48
OPS 0.732 0.771 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.331 0.310
ERA 4.18 4.20 4.18
FIP 3.65 4.58 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.27 1.30
K/9 9.26 7.81 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.517 0.587 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.90 4.61 4.24
BP FIP 3.59 4.64 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.37
BP K/9 9.47 8.67
BP Quality* 48.8 53.2 46.2
BP IP 475.3 511.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Khristian Curtis (62 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Antwone Kelly (45 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Daniel Palencia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Thornton (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0033 (Temp: 1.0207 | Wind: 0.9830)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.7 - CHC 5.1
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.8 - CHC 5.1
Win Probability: PIT 46.6% - CHC 53.4%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +114 / CHC -114
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 50.0%
Under 9.0: 41.1%
PIT +1.5: 61.9%
CHC -1.5: 38.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PIT 2.3 - CHC 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.3 - CHC 2.5
F5 Win Prob: PIT 47.4% - CHC 52.6% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +111 / CHC -111
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML +104 +114 -2.4%
CHC ML -126 -114 -2.4%
PIT +1.5 -193 -162 -4.0%
CHC -1.5 +159 +162 -0.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -2.3%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -11.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | September 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Bradish Home: Spencer Miles
ERA: 3.91 ERA: 2.77
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 8.29 K/9: 8.32
BB/9: 4.03 BB/9: 2.16
FIP: 4.14 FIP: 2.71
IP: 152.0 IP: 87.7
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 2.95
xwOBA: 0.318 xwOBA: 0.267
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Spencer Miles)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TOR Lg Avg
Record 72-76 73-75
R/Game 4.51 4.01 4.48
RA/Game 4.68 4.29 4.48
OPS 0.711 0.692 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.15 3.93 4.18
FIP 3.97 3.91 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.29 1.30
K/9 8.12 8.76 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.08 3.48 4.24
BP FIP 3.70 3.94 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.28
BP K/9 8.85 8.28
BP Quality* 49.6 44.2 46.2
BP IP 491.3 300.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Alex Hoppe (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Walker (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0037 (Temp: 1.0041 | Wind: 0.9996)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 3.5 - TOR 4.2
Simulated Avg: BAL 3.5 - TOR 4.2
Win Probability: BAL 42.1% - TOR 57.9%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +138 / TOR -138
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 8.5: 39.3%
Under 8.5: 60.7%
BAL +1.5: 60.5%
TOR -1.5: 39.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 1.7 - TOR 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 1.7 - TOR 2.2
F5 Win Prob: BAL 39.1% - TOR 60.9% (Tie: 19.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +155 / TOR -155
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +109 +138 -5.8%
TOR ML -131 -138 +1.2%
BAL +1.5 -199 -153 -6.1%
TOR -1.5 +163 +153 +1.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -13.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +8.3%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Under 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.3%
Fair ML: -155 | Kelly: 4.38%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01167
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | September 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Walbert Ureña Home: Andrew Alvarez
ERA: 2.74 ERA: 3.6
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 8.5 K/9: 8.62
BB/9: 4.45 BB/9: 4.07
FIP: 3.59 FIP: 3.23
IP: 131.3 IP: 95.0
xERA: 3.4 xERA: 4.36
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: 0.321
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Andrew Alvarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAA WSH Lg Avg
Record 56-91 68-81
R/Game 4.04 5.10 4.48
RA/Game 4.54 5.09 4.48
OPS 0.681 0.749 0.719
wOBA 0.296 0.321 0.310
ERA 4.20 4.74 4.18
FIP 3.97 4.54 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.39 1.30
K/9 9.11 7.93 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.446 0.501 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAA WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.60 6.10 4.24
BP FIP 4.17 5.13 4.06
BP WHIP 1.42 1.59
BP K/9 9.16 8.62
BP Quality* 51.4 59.3 46.2
BP IP 387.0 482.3
Bullpen Edge: LAA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Samy Natera Jr. (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0172 (Temp: 1.0165 | Wind: 1.0007)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAA 4.2 - WSH 4.8
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.2 - WSH 4.8
Win Probability: LAA 43.5% - WSH 56.5%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +130 / WSH -130
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.0: 50.9%
Under 8.0: 40.0%
LAA +1.5: 60.0%
WSH -1.5: 40.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAA 2.0 - WSH 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.0 - WSH 2.3
F5 Win Prob: LAA 44.5% - WSH 55.5% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +125 / WSH -125
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAA ML +105 +130 -5.3%
WSH ML -127 -130 +0.5%
LAA +1.5 -205 -150 -7.3%
WSH -1.5 +167 +150 +2.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -1.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -12.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | September 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael King Home: Cesar Perdomo
ERA: 3.0 ERA: 0.9
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 0.8
K/9: 7.71 K/9: 7.2
BB/9: 3.54 BB/9: 1.8
FIP: 3.96 FIP: 3.4
IP: 168.0 IP: 10.0
xERA: 4.36 xERA: 3.14
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: SF (Cesar Perdomo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD SF Lg Avg
Record 79-68 62-86
R/Game 4.26 4.20 4.48
RA/Game 4.13 4.70 4.48
OPS 0.704 0.716 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.89 4.36 4.18
FIP 4.01 4.06 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.29 7.63 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.514 0.449 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.79 4.68 4.24
BP FIP 3.00 4.40 4.06
BP WHIP 1.15 1.49
BP K/9 11.09 6.89
BP Quality* 35.9 53.9 46.2
BP IP 306.0 459.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Philip Abner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yunior Marte (77 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 18 mph (gusts 29 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), strong crosswind (18 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9676 (Temp: 0.9935 | Wind: 0.9739)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 3.5 - SF 3.4
Simulated Avg: SD 3.4 - SF 3.4
Win Probability: SD 50.2% - SF 49.8%
Fair Moneyline: SD -101 / SF +101
Avg Total Runs: 6.8
Over 7.5: 39.8%
Under 7.5: 60.2%
SD -1.5: 31.3%
SF +1.5: 68.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 1.5 - SF 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.5 - SF 2.0
F5 Win Prob: SD 40.1% - SF 59.9% (Tie: 20.3%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +150 / SF -150
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML -186 -101 -14.8%
SF ML +153 +101 +10.2%
SD -1.5 -105 +219 -19.9%
SF +1.5 -114 -219 +15.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -12.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +7.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] San Francisco Giants +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -114 | Edge: 15.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01168
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | September 12, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Randy Dobnak Home: Ranger Suarez
ERA: 2.54 ERA: 3.44
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 6.08 K/9: 8.4
BB/9: 3.25 BB/9: 2.76
FIP: 4.06 FIP: 2.95
IP: 63.7 IP: 130.7
xERA: 4.8 xERA: 3.71
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC BOS Lg Avg
Record 66-82 80-68
R/Game 4.27 4.42 4.48
RA/Game 4.86 3.87 4.48
OPS 0.719 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.63 3.62 4.18
FIP 4.47 3.58 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.24 1.30
K/9 7.41 8.71 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.441 0.560 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.76 3.46 4.24
BP FIP 5.24 3.51 4.06
BP WHIP 1.61 1.25
BP K/9 7.54 9.36
BP Quality* 60.6 41.6 46.2
BP IP 495.3 408.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jovani Morán (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0438 (Temp: 0.9983 | Wind: 1.0456)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 3.9 - BOS 5.4
Simulated Avg: KC 3.9 - BOS 5.4
Win Probability: KC 35.5% - BOS 64.5%
Fair Moneyline: KC +181 / BOS -181
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.5: 53.8%
Under 8.5: 46.2%
KC +1.5: 51.4%
BOS -1.5: 48.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.1 - BOS 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.1 - BOS 2.6
F5 Win Prob: KC 41.3% - BOS 58.7% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +142 / BOS -142
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +183 +181 +0.2%
BOS ML -225 -181 -4.8%
KC +1.5 -115 -106 -2.0%
BOS -1.5 -105 +106 -2.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +1.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -6.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | September 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Daniel Espino Home: Connor Prielipp
ERA: 2.7 ERA: 5.25
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 16.2 K/9: 9.67
BB/9: 3.6 BB/9: 3.33
FIP: 2.0 FIP: 3.75
IP: 10.0 IP: 108.0
xERA: 2.28 xERA: 4.13
xwOBA: 0.235 xwOBA: 0.313
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Daniel Espino)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE MIN Lg Avg
Record 75-73 69-78
R/Game 4.07 4.61 4.48
RA/Game 4.16 4.99 4.48
OPS 0.687 0.724 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.313 0.310
ERA 3.79 4.67 4.18
FIP 3.71 4.15 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.38 1.30
K/9 9.52 8.56 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.490 0.464 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.55 4.58 4.24
BP FIP 3.46 3.97 4.06
BP WHIP 1.26 1.43
BP K/9 10.02 8.94
BP Quality* 40.2 49.1 46.2
BP IP 510.0 534.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), wind out (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0303 (Temp: 1.0024 | Wind: 1.0278)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.3 - MIN 4.1
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.3 - MIN 4.1
Win Probability: CLE 52.5% - MIN 47.4%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -111 / MIN +111
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 45.6%
Under 8.0: 44.7%
CLE -1.5: 36.0%
MIN +1.5: 64.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.4 - MIN 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.4 - MIN 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CLE 54.2% - MIN 45.8% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -118 / MIN +118
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -108 -111 +0.6%
MIN ML -111 +111 -5.2%
CLE -1.5 +149 +178 -4.2%
MIN +1.5 -181 -178 -0.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -6.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | September 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tyler Glasnow Home: Tyler Phillips
ERA: 3.12 ERA: 3.51
WHIP: 0.88 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 10.92 K/9: 7.26
BB/9: 2.65 BB/9: 3.75
FIP: 2.68 FIP: 4.43
IP: 57.7 IP: 115.3
xERA: 2.65 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.253 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tyler Glasnow)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD MIA Lg Avg
Record 90-57 72-76
R/Game 4.99 4.43 4.48
RA/Game 3.82 4.41 4.48
OPS 0.759 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.325 0.315 0.310
ERA 3.65 4.11 4.18
FIP 3.68 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.28 1.30
K/9 9.39 8.25 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.621 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.98 4.59 4.24
BP FIP 3.77 3.93 4.06
BP WHIP 1.29 1.34
BP K/9 9.78 8.87
BP Quality* 44.9 49.8 46.2
BP IP 461.0 492.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Blake Treinen (2 of last 3 days)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 24%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0254 (Temp: 1.0183 | Wind: 1.0070)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.9 - MIA 3.4
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.9 - MIA 3.4
Win Probability: LAD 64.6% - MIA 35.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -183 / MIA +183
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 45.4%
Under 8.0: 44.8%
LAD -1.5: 48.0%
MIA +1.5: 52.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.7 - MIA 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.7 - MIA 1.6
F5 Win Prob: LAD 69.6% - MIA 30.4% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -229 / MIA +229
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -192 -183 -1.1%
MIA ML +157 +183 -3.5%
LAD -1.5 -107 +108 -3.6%
MIA +1.5 -112 -108 -0.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | September 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Peter Lambert Home: Ian Seymour
ERA: 3.67 ERA: 4.33
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 8.83 K/9: 10.83
BB/9: 3.61 BB/9: 2.55
FIP: 3.64 FIP: 4.0
IP: 139.7 IP: 116.3
xERA: 3.66 xERA: 3.63
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.295
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Peter Lambert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TB Lg Avg
Record 75-73 88-59
R/Game 4.48 4.52 4.48
RA/Game 4.76 4.13 4.48
OPS 0.724 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.51 3.79 4.18
FIP 4.35 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.15 1.30
K/9 8.88 8.12 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.472 0.542 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.18 3.51 4.24
BP FIP 4.22 3.91 4.06
BP WHIP 1.28 1.12
BP K/9 9.11 8.68
BP Quality* 50.5 42.6 46.2
BP IP 508.7 415.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ethan Pecko (75 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 3.9 - TB 4.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.0 - TB 4.3
Win Probability: HOU 46.5% - TB 53.5%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +115 / TB -115
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 7.5: 53.9%
Under 7.5: 46.1%
HOU +1.5: 63.7%
TB -1.5: 36.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.2 - TB 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.2 - TB 2.1
F5 Win Prob: HOU 51.9% - TB 48.1% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -108 / TB +108
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +120 +115 +1.0%
TB ML -145 -115 -5.6%
HOU +1.5 -174 -176 +0.2%
TB -1.5 +144 +176 -4.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +1.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -6.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | September 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brady Singer Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN MIL Lg Avg
Record 69-78 92-56
R/Game 4.16 5.15 4.48
RA/Game 5.12 3.85 4.48
OPS 0.703 0.745 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.320 0.310
ERA 4.84 3.53 4.18
FIP 4.58 3.58 4.04
WHIP 1.44 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.25 9.63 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.406 0.630 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.88 3.45 4.24
BP FIP 4.65 3.54 4.06
BP WHIP 1.47 1.26
BP K/9 8.78 9.04
BP Quality* 56.7 41.9 46.2
BP IP 549.3 506.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jose Trevino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Garrett Stallings (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0196 (Temp: 1.0058 | Wind: 1.0137)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 4.0 - MIL 6.4
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.0 - MIL 6.4
Win Probability: CIN 28.7% - MIL 71.3%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +248 / MIL -248
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 8.5: 62.2%
Under 8.5: 37.8%
CIN +1.5: 42.8%
MIL -1.5: 57.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.3 - MIL 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.3 - MIL 3.5
F5 Win Prob: CIN 33.3% - MIL 66.7% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +200 / MIL -200
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +154 +248 -10.7%
MIL ML -187 -248 +6.1%
CIN +1.5 -132 +134 -14.1%
MIL -1.5 +109 -134 +9.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +9.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -14.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.2% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.8%
Fair ML: -165 | Kelly: 5.17%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01169
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | September 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Tyler Mahle
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI ATL Lg Avg
Record 82-66 87-61
R/Game 4.49 4.57 4.48
RA/Game 4.24 3.82 4.48
OPS 0.710 0.718 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.98 3.57 4.18
FIP 3.64 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.27 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.87 8.55 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.525 0.581 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 3.34 4.24
BP FIP 3.60 3.54 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.19
BP K/9 10.02 9.13
BP Quality* 49.0 43.9 46.2
BP IP 486.7 401.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex McFarlane (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9984 (Temp: 1.0075 | Wind: 0.9910)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.3 - ATL 4.9
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.3 - ATL 4.8
Win Probability: PHI 44.4% - ATL 55.6%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +125 / ATL -125
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.0: 52.5%
Under 8.0: 38.5%
PHI +1.5: 60.6%
ATL -1.5: 39.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.4 - ATL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.4 - ATL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: PHI 46.4% - ATL 53.6% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +115 / ATL -115
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML +114 +125 -2.4%
ATL ML -137 -125 -2.2%
PHI +1.5 -191 -154 -5.0%
ATL -1.5 +157 +154 +0.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +0.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | September 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sean Newcomb Home: Kyle Leahy
ERA: 2.71 ERA: 3.41
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 8.02 K/9: 8.45
BB/9: 3.14 BB/9: 2.59
FIP: 2.68 FIP: 3.46
IP: 83.0 IP: 132.0
xERA: 3.9 xERA: 4.86
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.337
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Newcomb)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS STL Lg Avg
Record 75-72 73-75
R/Game 4.68 4.56 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 4.61 4.48
OPS 0.723 0.703 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.15 4.30 4.18
FIP 4.08 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.35 1.30
K/9 8.33 7.96 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.524 0.495 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.20 4.59 4.24
BP FIP 4.29 4.06 4.06
BP WHIP 1.37 1.38
BP K/9 8.19 8.18
BP Quality* 49.0 50.8 46.2
BP IP 336.3 524.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0140 (Temp: 1.0157 | Wind: 0.9982)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 4.6 - STL 4.1
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.7 - STL 4.1
Win Probability: CWS 55.4% - STL 44.6%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -124 / STL +124
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.5: 49.0%
Under 8.5: 51.0%
CWS -1.5: 39.2%
STL +1.5: 60.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.4 - STL 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.4 - STL 1.9
F5 Win Prob: CWS 59.6% - STL 40.4% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -148 / STL +148
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML -108 -124 +3.5%
STL ML -112 +124 -8.3%
CWS -1.5 +156 +155 +0.2%
STL +1.5 -190 -155 -4.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -3.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -1.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | September 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kumar Rocker Home: Brandon Pfaadt
ERA: 4.61 ERA: 3.53
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 8.49 K/9: 5.91
BB/9: 3.68 BB/9: 2.22
FIP: 4.37 FIP: 3.97
IP: 134.7 IP: 117.3
xERA: 4.61 xERA: 3.77
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Brandon Pfaadt)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ARI Lg Avg
Record 72-76 79-69
R/Game 4.13 4.44 4.48
RA/Game 4.46 4.39 4.48
OPS 0.716 0.710 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.33 4.08 4.18
FIP 4.01 4.19 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.62 6.98 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.465 0.505 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.59 3.40 4.24
BP FIP 4.33 3.46 4.06
BP WHIP 1.40 1.19
BP K/9 8.41 7.85
BP Quality* 52.0 39.6 46.2
BP IP 513.7 466.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robby Ahlstrom (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.6 - ARI 5.0
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.6 - ARI 5.0
Win Probability: TEX 36.1% - ARI 63.9%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +177 / ARI -177
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 47.9%
Under 8.5: 52.1%
TEX +1.5: 52.5%
ARI -1.5: 47.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.1 - ARI 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.1 - ARI 2.7
F5 Win Prob: TEX 39.6% - ARI 60.4% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +152 / ARI -152
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +109 +177 -11.8%
ARI ML -131 -177 +7.2%
TEX +1.5 -194 -111 -13.5%
ARI -1.5 +159 +111 +8.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (Run Line) [+159]
Model: 47.5% | Market: 38.6% | Edge: 8.9%
Fair ML: +111 | Kelly: 3.62%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01170
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics
Regular Season | September 12, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryan Woo Home: Gage Jump
ERA: 4.03 ERA: 5.12
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 9.1 K/9: 9.87
BB/9: 1.9 BB/9: 4.19
FIP: 3.21 FIP: 3.65
IP: 156.3 IP: 96.7
xERA: 3.55 xERA: 4.51
xwOBA: 0.292 xwOBA: 0.326
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryan Woo)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SEA ATH Lg Avg
Record 69-79 60-88
R/Game 3.96 4.37 4.48
RA/Game 4.47 5.63 4.48
OPS 0.683 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.298 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.22 5.33 4.18
FIP 3.88 4.69 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.49 1.30
K/9 8.67 8.54 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.445 0.386 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SEA ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.35 5.78 4.24
BP FIP 4.17 4.59 4.06
BP WHIP 1.37 1.59
BP K/9 8.62 9.09
BP Quality* 51.6 61.6 46.2
BP IP 486.7 552.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Scott Blewett (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9743 (Temp: 0.9894 | Wind: 0.9847)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SEA 4.5 - ATH 4.3
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.5 - ATH 4.2
Win Probability: SEA 52.2% - ATH 47.8%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -109 / ATH +109
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 9.5: 40.3%
Under 9.5: 59.7%
SEA -1.5: 36.0%
ATH +1.5: 64.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SEA 2.3 - ATH 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.3 - ATH 2.1
F5 Win Prob: SEA 53.5% - ATH 46.5% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -115 / ATH +115
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -174 -109 -11.3%
ATH ML +144 +109 +6.8%
SEA -1.5 -110 +178 -16.4%
ATH +1.5 -110 -178 +11.7%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -12.1%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +7.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
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[HMC] Athletics +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01171