2026-09-13
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-13
Games: 15 | Plays: 1
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | September 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gabriel Hughes Home: Jackson Jobe
ERA: 5.81 ERA: 4.45
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 7.53 K/9: 8.26
BB/9: 3.3 BB/9: 3.81
FIP: 3.66 FIP: 4.83
IP: 57.3 IP: 28.3
xERA: 3.56 xERA: 5.04
xwOBA: 0.292 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: COL (Gabriel Hughes)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL DET Lg Avg
Record 55-93 69-79
R/Game 4.70 4.45 4.49
RA/Game 5.79 4.02 4.49
OPS 0.739 0.715 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.309 0.310
ERA 5.55 3.67 4.19
FIP 4.70 3.87 4.04
WHIP 1.53 1.22 1.31
K/9 7.01 8.13 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.405 0.546 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.03 4.33 4.25
BP FIP 4.41 4.44 4.06
BP WHIP 1.55 1.34
BP K/9 7.50 8.23
BP Quality* 56.9 49.8 46.3
BP IP 298.7 457.0
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (34 pitches yesterday)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Hunter Goodman, Kyle Karros, Willi Castro, Connor Norby
Hunter Goodman Catcher OPS: 0.831 (479 AB)
Kyle Karros Third Base OPS: 0.771 (365 AB)
Willi Castro Second Base OPS: 0.748 (427 AB)
Connor Norby Second Base OPS: 0.701 (294 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.7% of full strength
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Eduardo Valencia, Gleyber Torres
Eduardo Valencia Designated Hitter OPS: 0.938 (97 AB)
Gleyber Torres Second Base OPS: 0.751 (328 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), crosswind (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0033 (Temp: 1.0094 | Wind: 0.9939)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.2 - DET 4.6
Simulated Avg: COL 4.2 - DET 4.5
Win Probability: COL 46.1% - DET 53.9%
Fair Moneyline: COL +117 / DET -117
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 9.0: 40.2%
Under 9.0: 50.7%
COL +1.5: 62.5%
DET -1.5: 37.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.2 - DET 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.2 - DET 2.3
F5 Win Prob: COL 48.8% - DET 51.2% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +105 / DET -105
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +153 +117 +6.6%
DET ML -186 -117 -11.2%
COL +1.5 -136 -167 +4.9%
DET -1.5 +113 +167 -9.5%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -12.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -1.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | September 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Grayson Rodriguez Home: Jake Irvin
ERA: 6.28 ERA: 5.52
WHIP: 1.57 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 8.27 K/9: 8.87
BB/9: 4.08 BB/9: 4.14
FIP: 4.85 FIP: 4.64
IP: 81.7 IP: 91.3
xERA: 5.67 xERA: 5.35
xwOBA: 0.36 xwOBA: 0.351
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA WSH Lg Avg
Record 56-92 69-81
R/Game 4.05 5.11 4.49
RA/Game 4.55 5.09 4.49
OPS 0.680 0.749 0.719
wOBA 0.295 0.321 0.310
ERA 4.20 4.74 4.19
FIP 3.96 4.54 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.39 1.31
K/9 9.11 7.94 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.446 0.501 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.59 6.11 4.25
BP FIP 4.16 5.13 4.06
BP WHIP 1.41 1.59
BP K/9 9.13 8.60
BP Quality* 49.7 60.8 46.3
BP IP 390.3 484.3
Bullpen Edge: LAA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Will Dion (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joey Wiemer, Brady House
Joey Wiemer Outfielder OPS: 0.912 (70 AB)
Brady House Third Base OPS: 0.695 (292 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0168 (Temp: 1.0170 | Wind: 0.9999)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 5.0 - WSH 5.9
Simulated Avg: LAA 5.0 - WSH 6.0
Win Probability: LAA 41.6% - WSH 58.4%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +140 / WSH -140
Avg Total Runs: 10.9
Over 9.0: 58.8%
Under 9.0: 33.4%
LAA +1.5: 55.7%
WSH -1.5: 44.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.7 - WSH 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.7 - WSH 3.5
F5 Win Prob: LAA 38.8% - WSH 61.2% (Tie: 13.3%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +157 / WSH -157
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +113 +140 -5.3%
WSH ML -136 -140 +0.8%
LAA +1.5 -185 -126 -9.2%
WSH -1.5 +152 +126 +4.6%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +6.4%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -19.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | September 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Painter Home: Grant Holmes
ERA: 5.71 ERA: 3.46
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 7.91 K/9: 7.19
BB/9: 3.18 BB/9: 3.73
FIP: 4.64 FIP: 4.54
IP: 110.3 IP: 137.7
xERA: 4.55 xERA: 4.74
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.333
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI ATL Lg Avg
Record 82-67 88-61
R/Game 4.47 4.62 4.49
RA/Game 4.30 3.81 4.49
OPS 0.710 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.00 3.56 4.19
FIP 3.66 3.95 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.24 1.31
K/9 9.86 8.52 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.518 0.587 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.21 3.34 4.25
BP FIP 3.66 3.54 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.19
BP K/9 9.99 9.13
BP Quality* 52.7 42.4 46.3
BP IP 491.7 401.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Brooks Raley (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Grant Holman (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Orion Kerkering (39 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Bryan De La Cruz, Derek Hill
Bryan De La Cruz Outfielder OPS: 0.848 (59 AB)
Derek Hill Outfielder OPS: 0.744 (189 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.3% of full strength
ATL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Lane Thomas, Dominic Smith
Lane Thomas Outfielder OPS: 0.701 (326 AB)
Dominic Smith Designated Hitter OPS: 0.688 (263 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0241 (Temp: 1.0154 | Wind: 1.0085)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.3 - ATL 5.5
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.2 - ATL 5.5
Win Probability: PHI 38.1% - ATL 61.9%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +162 / ATL -162
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 49.3%
Under 9.0: 41.9%
PHI +1.5: 53.2%
ATL -1.5: 46.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.5 - ATL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.5 - ATL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: PHI 41.5% - ATL 58.5% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +141 / ATL -141
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML +110 +162 -9.5%
ATL ML -132 -162 +5.0%
PHI +1.5 -185 -114 -11.7%
ATL -1.5 +152 +114 +7.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -3.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Atlanta Braves -1.5 (Run Line) [+152]
Model: 46.8% | Market: 39.7% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: +114 | Kelly: 2.94%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01172
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | September 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Christian Scott Home: Cam Schlittler
ERA: 3.81 ERA: 2.01
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 0.92
K/9: 10.87 K/9: 11.08
BB/9: 3.99 BB/9: 2.12
FIP: 3.32 FIP: 2.51
IP: 99.3 IP: 178.7
xERA: 3.85 xERA: 2.91
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.265
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM NYY Lg Avg
Record 69-79 85-63
R/Game 4.34 4.56 4.49
RA/Game 4.56 3.73 4.49
OPS 0.706 0.721 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.19 3.26 4.19
FIP 3.90 3.62 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.17 1.31
K/9 9.00 9.04 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.478 0.591 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.45 3.18 4.25
BP FIP 4.22 3.99 4.06
BP WHIP 1.36 1.21
BP K/9 9.19 8.15
BP Quality* 47.6 44.3 46.3
BP IP 303.7 526.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ryan Yarbrough (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Luis Torrens, Mark Vientos
Luis Torrens Catcher OPS: 0.724 (237 AB)
Mark Vientos First Base OPS: 0.669 (251 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.1% of full strength
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham
Paul Goldschmidt First Base OPS: 0.772 (330 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Second Base OPS: 0.715 (461 AB)
Trent Grisham Outfielder OPS: 0.703 (418 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 42%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0010 (Temp: 1.0019 | Wind: 0.9991)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 3.1 - NYY 4.0
Simulated Avg: NYM 3.1 - NYY 4.0
Win Probability: NYM 39.0% - NYY 61.0%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +156 / NYY -156
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 8.0: 33.1%
Under 8.0: 57.2%
NYM +1.5: 58.1%
NYY -1.5: 41.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 1.4 - NYY 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 1.4 - NYY 2.0
F5 Win Prob: NYM 36.5% - NYY 63.5% (Tie: 20.5%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +174 / NYY -174
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML +148 +156 -1.3%
NYY ML -180 -156 -3.3%
NYM +1.5 -144 -139 -0.9%
NYY -1.5 +120 +139 -3.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -19.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +4.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | September 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Trevor Rogers Home: Dylan Cease
ERA: 4.15 ERA: 2.4
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 8.19 K/9: 12.66
BB/9: 2.2 BB/9: 3.74
FIP: 3.38 FIP: 2.42
IP: 151.7 IP: 161.3
xERA: 3.61 xERA: 2.78
xwOBA: 0.294 xwOBA: 0.259
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL TOR Lg Avg
Record 72-77 74-75
R/Game 4.50 4.03 4.49
RA/Game 4.69 4.28 4.49
OPS 0.710 0.695 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.300 0.310
ERA 4.17 3.92 4.19
FIP 3.98 3.91 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.29 1.31
K/9 8.14 8.78 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.481 0.472 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.08 3.47 4.25
BP FIP 3.68 3.95 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.27
BP K/9 8.90 8.27
BP Quality* 45.0 45.6 46.3
BP IP 496.3 303.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (34 pitches yesterday)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Arrighetti (50 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Blaze Alexander, Luis Robert Jr.
Blaze Alexander Third Base OPS: 0.772 (261 AB)
Luis Robert Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.707 (204 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.8% of full strength
TOR (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Luis Urías, Alejandro Kirk, Jesús Sánchez, Nathan Lukes, Yohendrick Piñango
Luis Urías Second Base OPS: 0.803 (52 AB)
Alejandro Kirk Catcher OPS: 0.776 (246 AB)
Jesús Sánchez Outfielder OPS: 0.734 (269 AB)
Nathan Lukes Outfielder OPS: 0.710 (373 AB)
Yohendrick Piñango Outfielder OPS: 0.702 (169 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9970 (Temp: 1.0135 | Wind: 0.9837)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 3.2 - TOR 3.3
Simulated Avg: BAL 3.2 - TOR 3.3
Win Probability: BAL 48.2% - TOR 51.8%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +107 / TOR -107
Avg Total Runs: 6.5
Over 7.0: 36.5%
Under 7.0: 52.8%
BAL +1.5: 68.1%
TOR -1.5: 31.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 1.4 - TOR 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 1.4 - TOR 1.8
F5 Win Prob: BAL 42.7% - TOR 57.3% (Tie: 21.9%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +134 / TOR -134
F5 Avg Total: 3.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML +129 +107 +4.6%
TOR ML -156 -107 -9.2%
BAL +1.5 -174 -214 +4.6%
TOR -1.5 +144 +214 -9.1%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -15.9%
U 7.0 -110 N/A +0.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | September 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Hayden Wesneski Home: Freddy Peralta
ERA: 3.35 ERA: 4.82
WHIP: 1.03 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 7.09 K/9: 8.35
BB/9: 2.76 BB/9: 3.24
FIP: 3.3 FIP: 4.28
IP: 45.7 IP: 153.0
xERA: 3.69 xERA: 3.93
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Hayden Wesneski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TB Lg Avg
Record 75-74 89-59
R/Game 4.46 4.51 4.49
RA/Game 4.75 4.11 4.49
OPS 0.722 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.313 0.310
ERA 4.51 3.77 4.19
FIP 4.35 3.93 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.14 1.31
K/9 8.85 8.16 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.542 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.16 3.48 4.25
BP FIP 4.24 3.90 4.06
BP WHIP 1.29 1.12
BP K/9 9.08 8.71
BP Quality* 50.7 43.9 46.3
BP IP 510.7 418.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Bryan Baker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Wells (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Liam Hicks, Ryan Vilade, Jake Fraley
Liam Hicks Catcher OPS: 0.810 (448 AB)
Ryan Vilade Outfielder OPS: 0.801 (214 AB)
Jake Fraley Outfielder OPS: 0.690 (82 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.2 - TB 3.8
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.2 - TB 3.9
Win Probability: HOU 53.1% - TB 46.9%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -113 / TB +113
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.0: 42.2%
Under 8.0: 47.7%
HOU +1.5: 70.2%
TB -1.5: 29.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.4 - TB 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.4 - TB 1.9
F5 Win Prob: HOU 60.1% - TB 39.9% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -151 / TB +151
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +113 -113 +6.1%
TB ML -136 +113 -10.7%
HOU +1.5 -191 -235 +4.5%
TB -1.5 +157 +235 -9.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -10.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | September 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Emmet Sheehan Home: Eury Pérez
ERA: 5.08 ERA: 3.94
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 10.51 K/9: 9.69
BB/9: 2.76 BB/9: 4.0
FIP: 4.39 FIP: 3.87
IP: 101.0 IP: 139.3
xERA: 3.91 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Eury Pérez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD MIA Lg Avg
Record 90-58 73-76
R/Game 4.98 4.43 4.49
RA/Game 3.82 4.40 4.49
OPS 0.757 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.325 0.315 0.310
ERA 3.66 4.10 4.19
FIP 3.68 3.96 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.28 1.31
K/9 9.39 8.23 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.619 0.503 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.97 4.56 4.25
BP FIP 3.76 3.92 4.06
BP WHIP 1.28 1.33
BP K/9 9.76 8.81
BP Quality* 43.2 48.1 46.3
BP IP 463.0 497.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Shohei Ohtani, Dalton Rushing, Andy Pages, Teoscar Hernández, Ryan Ward, Tommy Edman
Shohei Ohtani Designated Hitter OPS: 0.902 (502 AB)
Dalton Rushing Catcher OPS: 0.798 (221 AB)
Andy Pages Outfielder OPS: 0.796 (493 AB)
Teoscar Hernández Outfielder OPS: 0.749 (393 AB)
Ryan Ward Outfielder OPS: 0.738 (55 AB)
Tommy Edman Second Base OPS: 0.732 (248 AB)
Run Adjustment: 84.4% of full strength
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 33%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9926 (Temp: 1.0181 | Wind: 0.9749)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 3.7 - MIA 4.2
Simulated Avg: LAD 3.8 - MIA 4.2
Win Probability: LAD 45.5% - MIA 54.5%
Fair Moneyline: LAD +120 / MIA -120
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.5: 41.4%
Under 8.5: 58.6%
LAD -1.5: 28.9%
MIA +1.5: 71.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.0 - MIA 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.0 - MIA 2.4
F5 Win Prob: LAD 43.1% - MIA 56.9% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +132 / MIA -132
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -143 +120 -13.4%
MIA ML +119 -120 +8.9%
LAD -1.5 +117 +246 -17.2%
MIA +1.5 -142 -246 +12.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -10.9%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +6.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Miami Marlins +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -142 | Edge: 12.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01173
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | September 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tanner Bibee Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE MIN Lg Avg
Record 75-74 70-78
R/Game 4.07 4.60 4.49
RA/Game 4.16 4.97 4.49
OPS 0.685 0.724 0.719
wOBA 0.298 0.313 0.310
ERA 3.80 4.66 4.19
FIP 3.70 4.13 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.37 1.31
K/9 9.55 8.57 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.490 0.465 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.59 4.56 4.25
BP FIP 3.47 3.95 4.06
BP WHIP 1.26 1.43
BP K/9 10.03 9.03
BP Quality* 43.3 51.9 46.3
BP IP 514.0 537.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Franco Aleman (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Joey Cantillo (56 pitches yesterday)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Byron Buxton, Alex Jackson, Kaelen Culpepper, Josh Bell
Byron Buxton Outfielder OPS: 0.830 (370 AB)
Alex Jackson Catcher OPS: 0.759 (68 AB)
Kaelen Culpepper Shortstop OPS: 0.757 (106 AB)
Josh Bell Designated Hitter OPS: 0.738 (521 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0105 (Temp: 0.9971 | Wind: 1.0134)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.3 - MIN 4.3
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.3 - MIN 4.3
Win Probability: CLE 49.6% - MIN 50.4%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +102 / MIN -102
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.0: 47.9%
Under 8.0: 42.7%
CLE +1.5: 66.1%
MIN -1.5: 33.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.3 - MIN 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.3 - MIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CLE 46.5% - MIN 53.5% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +115 / MIN -115
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML +105 +102 +0.8%
MIN ML -126 -102 -5.3%
CLE +1.5 -199 -195 -0.5%
MIN -1.5 +163 +195 -4.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | September 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chase Burns Home: Robert Gasser
ERA: 2.73 ERA: 4.43
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 10.68 K/9: 8.57
BB/9: 3.09 BB/9: 2.86
FIP: 3.07 FIP: 4.14
IP: 148.3 IP: 91.3
xERA: 3.16 xERA: 4.19
xwOBA: 0.276 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN MIL Lg Avg
Record 69-79 93-56
R/Game 4.19 5.20 4.49
RA/Game 5.18 3.89 4.49
OPS 0.705 0.748 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.321 0.310
ERA 4.90 3.57 4.19
FIP 4.60 3.58 4.04
WHIP 1.45 1.19 1.31
K/9 8.24 9.64 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.404 0.630 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.93 3.42 4.25
BP FIP 4.63 3.53 4.06
BP WHIP 1.47 1.26
BP K/9 8.75 9.02
BP Quality* 55.2 40.3 46.3
BP IP 553.3 510.7
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Graham Ashcraft (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.9 - MIL 4.8
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.9 - MIL 4.8
Win Probability: CIN 40.6% - MIL 59.4%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +146 / MIL -146
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.0: 48.6%
Under 8.0: 42.1%
CIN +1.5: 57.0%
MIL -1.5: 43.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.3 - MIL 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.3 - MIL 2.1
F5 Win Prob: CIN 54.4% - MIL 45.6% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN -119 / MIL +119
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +159 +146 +2.0%
MIL ML -194 -146 -6.6%
CIN +1.5 -132 -133 +0.1%
MIL -1.5 +109 +133 -4.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | September 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Michael McGreevy
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS STL Lg Avg
Record 76-72 73-76
R/Game 4.69 4.56 4.49
RA/Game 4.45 4.62 4.49
OPS 0.723 0.703 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.16 4.31 4.19
FIP 4.07 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.35 1.31
K/9 8.36 7.99 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.524 0.494 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 4.64 4.25
BP FIP 4.27 4.08 4.06
BP WHIP 1.37 1.38
BP K/9 8.21 8.22
BP Quality* 53.4 55.6 46.3
BP IP 338.7 530.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Luis Castillo (61 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (38 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jordan Hicks (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Cooper Hjerpe (52 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0328 (Temp: 1.0206 | Wind: 1.0120)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 5.3 - STL 5.1
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.3 - STL 5.1
Win Probability: CWS 51.8% - STL 48.2%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -107 / STL +107
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 8.5: 62.7%
Under 8.5: 37.3%
CWS -1.5: 37.6%
STL +1.5: 62.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.9 - STL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.9 - STL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CWS 53.8% - STL 46.2% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -116 / STL +116
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML -131 -107 -4.9%
STL ML +109 +107 +0.4%
CWS -1.5 +129 +166 -6.0%
STL +1.5 -156 -166 +1.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +10.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -15.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01174
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | September 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bubba Chandler Home: Matthew Boyd
ERA: 4.25 ERA: 4.03
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 8.18 K/9: 7.08
BB/9: 4.5 BB/9: 2.72
FIP: 3.97 FIP: 4.22
IP: 142.0 IP: 109.3
xERA: 4.02 xERA: 4.68
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT CHC Lg Avg
Record 74-75 83-66
R/Game 4.79 5.34 4.49
RA/Game 4.62 4.41 4.49
OPS 0.731 0.771 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.332 0.310
ERA 4.18 4.19 4.19
FIP 3.67 4.58 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.27 1.31
K/9 9.24 7.81 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.516 0.587 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.93 4.58 4.25
BP FIP 3.59 4.63 4.06
BP WHIP 1.34 1.37
BP K/9 9.48 8.65
BP Quality* 44.4 50.0 46.3
BP IP 476.3 515.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (31 pitches yesterday)
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), wind out (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0580 (Temp: 0.9960 | Wind: 1.0622)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 5.4 - CHC 5.8
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.4 - CHC 5.8
Win Probability: PIT 47.0% - CHC 52.9%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +113 / CHC -113
Avg Total Runs: 11.2
Over 7.0: 75.1%
Under 7.0: 18.5%
PIT +1.5: 61.0%
CHC -1.5: 39.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 3.0 - CHC 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 3.0 - CHC 3.2
F5 Win Prob: PIT 47.2% - CHC 52.8% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +112 / CHC -112
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML +133 +113 +4.1%
CHC ML -161 -113 -8.7%
PIT +1.5 -175 -157 -2.6%
CHC -1.5 +144 +157 -2.0%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +22.7%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -33.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 22.7%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | September 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Noah Cameron Home: Payton Tolle
ERA: 3.93 ERA: 3.15
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 8.14 K/9: 10.45
BB/9: 2.86 BB/9: 2.43
FIP: 3.54 FIP: 3.01
IP: 160.3 IP: 137.0
xERA: 3.96 xERA: 2.69
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.255
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Payton Tolle)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC BOS Lg Avg
Record 66-83 81-68
R/Game 4.25 4.42 4.49
RA/Game 4.86 3.85 4.49
OPS 0.717 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.63 3.60 4.19
FIP 4.45 3.57 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.24 1.31
K/9 7.40 8.73 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.439 0.563 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.77 3.44 4.25
BP FIP 5.24 3.50 4.06
BP WHIP 1.62 1.25
BP K/9 7.52 9.38
BP Quality* 59.2 39.9 46.3
BP IP 497.7 410.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 69%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), wind out (8 mph) | Rain likely (69%)
Weather Factor: 1.0348 (Temp: 0.9942 | Wind: 1.0408)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 3.5 - BOS 5.2
Simulated Avg: KC 3.5 - BOS 5.2
Win Probability: KC 33.3% - BOS 66.7%
Fair Moneyline: KC +200 / BOS -200
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 7.5: 57.9%
Under 7.5: 42.1%
KC +1.5: 49.8%
BOS -1.5: 50.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 1.8 - BOS 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.8 - BOS 2.4
F5 Win Prob: KC 38.0% - BOS 62.0% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +163 / BOS -163
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +154 +200 -6.1%
BOS ML -187 -200 +1.5%
KC +1.5 -148 +101 -9.9%
BOS -1.5 +123 -101 +5.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +5.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -10.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Athletics
Regular Season | September 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryce Miller Home: Jacob Lopez
ERA: 4.22 ERA: 4.78
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 8.88 K/9: 8.43
BB/9: 2.55 BB/9: 4.3
FIP: 4.26 FIP: 4.88
IP: 102.3 IP: 111.0
xERA: 3.46 xERA: 3.51
xwOBA: 0.288 xwOBA: 0.29
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryce Miller)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA ATH Lg Avg
Record 70-79 60-89
R/Game 4.06 4.35 4.49
RA/Game 4.44 5.72 4.49
OPS 0.691 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.19 5.41 4.19
FIP 3.87 4.74 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.50 1.31
K/9 8.66 8.51 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.459 0.377 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.32 5.91 4.25
BP FIP 4.16 4.66 4.06
BP WHIP 1.36 1.61
BP K/9 8.60 9.01
BP Quality* 46.9 59.6 46.3
BP IP 489.7 559.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yunior Tur (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Joey Estes (54 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9785 (Temp: 1.0012 | Wind: 0.9773)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.6 - ATH 4.4
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.6 - ATH 4.4
Win Probability: SEA 52.0% - ATH 47.9%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -109 / ATH +109
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.0: 42.2%
Under 9.0: 48.9%
SEA -1.5: 36.2%
ATH +1.5: 63.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.4 - ATH 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.4 - ATH 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SEA 50.4% - ATH 49.6% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -102 / ATH +102
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -134 -109 -5.2%
ATH ML +111 +109 +0.6%
SEA -1.5 +123 +176 -8.7%
ATH +1.5 -148 -176 +4.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -10.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -3.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | September 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cal Quantrill Home: Eduardo Rodriguez
ERA: 2.89 ERA: 2.55
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 6.75 K/9: 6.66
BB/9: 2.19 BB/9: 2.97
FIP: 3.85 FIP: 3.74
IP: 102.7 IP: 173.0
xERA: 3.91 xERA: 4.34
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ARI Lg Avg
Record 73-76 79-70
R/Game 4.14 4.42 4.49
RA/Game 4.44 4.40 4.49
OPS 0.718 0.709 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.31 4.09 4.19
FIP 4.00 4.19 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.63 6.99 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.57 3.38 4.25
BP FIP 4.32 3.45 4.06
BP WHIP 1.40 1.19
BP K/9 8.42 7.85
BP Quality* 53.4 40.9 46.3
BP IP 516.0 468.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Nathan Eovaldi (45 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Robert Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Derek Law (39 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.6 - ARI 4.5
Simulated Avg: TEX 3.6 - ARI 4.5
Win Probability: TEX 40.3% - ARI 59.7%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +148 / ARI -148
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 42.6%
Under 8.0: 47.4%
TEX +1.5: 58.1%
ARI -1.5: 41.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.0 - ARI 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.0 - ARI 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TEX 46.7% - ARI 53.3% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +114 / ARI -114
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML +109 +148 -7.5%
ARI ML -131 -148 +3.0%
TEX +1.5 -188 -139 -7.2%
ARI -1.5 +155 +139 +2.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | September 13, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nick Pivetta Home: Logan Webb
ERA: 3.43 ERA: 4.1
WHIP: 0.95 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 11.14 K/9: 7.34
BB/9: 2.57 BB/9: 2.31
FIP: 1.48 FIP: 3.24
IP: 21.0 IP: 155.7
xERA: 2.42 xERA: 4.08
xwOBA: 0.242 xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: SD (Nick Pivetta)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD SF Lg Avg
Record 80-68 62-87
R/Game 4.28 4.21 4.49
RA/Game 4.14 4.72 4.49
OPS 0.706 0.716 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.91 4.37 4.19
FIP 4.03 4.08 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.29 7.60 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.515 0.449 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.78 4.70 4.25
BP FIP 2.97 4.45 4.06
BP WHIP 1.14 1.50
BP K/9 11.13 6.84
BP Quality* 40.1 52.8 46.3
BP IP 308.0 468.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Mason Miller (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jason Foley (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 17 mph (gusts 28 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), strong crosswind (17 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9805 (Temp: 0.9947 | Wind: 0.9857)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.9 - SF 3.5
Simulated Avg: SD 3.9 - SF 3.5
Win Probability: SD 53.7% - SF 46.3%
Fair Moneyline: SD -116 / SF +116
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.5: 45.9%
Under 7.5: 54.1%
SD -1.5: 35.5%
SF +1.5: 64.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.0 - SF 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.0 - SF 1.9
F5 Win Prob: SD 50.3% - SF 49.7% (Tie: 19.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SD -101 / SF +101
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML -131 -116 -3.0%
SF ML +109 +116 -1.5%
SD -1.5 +135 +181 -7.0%
SF +1.5 -163 -181 +2.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -6.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +1.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================