2026-09-14
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-14
Games: 10 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | September 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tarik Skubal Home: Nick Lodolo
ERA: 2.84 ERA: 5.12
WHIP: 0.97 WHIP: 1.53
K/9: 10.57 K/9: 7.53
BB/9: 1.55 BB/9: 3.81
FIP: 2.48 FIP: 5.16
IP: 139.7 IP: 89.7
xERA: 3.03 xERA: 6.45
xwOBA: 0.27 xwOBA: 0.38
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD CIN Lg Avg
Record 90-59 70-79
R/Game 4.97 4.19 4.50
RA/Game 3.83 5.16 4.50
OPS 0.759 0.705 0.719
wOBA 0.325 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.68 4.88 4.19
FIP 3.68 4.61 4.04
WHIP 1.17 1.45 1.31
K/9 9.39 8.24 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.617 0.406 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.06 4.91 4.26
BP FIP 3.78 4.62 4.06
BP WHIP 1.29 1.47
BP K/9 9.77 8.74
BP Quality* 46.7 58.1 46.3
BP IP 465.0 555.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Edgardo Henriquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Stewart (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Brandon Williamson (47 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0242 (Temp: 1.0031 | Wind: 1.0210)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 7.0 - CIN 3.8
Simulated Avg: LAD 6.9 - CIN 3.8
Win Probability: LAD 75.7% - CIN 24.3%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -311 / CIN +311
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 7.5: 71.9%
Under 7.5: 28.1%
LAD -1.5: 62.9%
CIN +1.5: 37.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 4.0 - CIN 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 4.0 - CIN 1.7
F5 Win Prob: LAD 80.7% - CIN 19.3% (Tie: 11.8%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -419 / CIN +419
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -222 -311 +6.7%
CIN ML +180 +311 -11.4%
LAD -1.5 -131 -170 +6.2%
CIN +1.5 +109 +170 -10.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +19.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -24.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 19.6%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | September 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Newcomb Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 2.77 ERA: 3.78
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 8.32 K/9: 12.14
BB/9: 3.2 BB/9: 2.82
FIP: 2.63 FIP: 3.42
IP: 84.3 IP: 169.0
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 3.8
xwOBA: 0.304 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Newcomb)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
Record 76-73 76-74
R/Game 4.66 4.10 4.50
RA/Game 4.44 4.15 4.50
OPS 0.721 0.689 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.13 3.78 4.19
FIP 4.05 3.69 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.37 9.56 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.523 0.495 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 3.57 4.26
BP FIP 4.24 3.45 4.06
BP WHIP 1.36 1.26
BP K/9 8.26 10.06
BP Quality* 50.0 43.2 46.3
BP IP 341.0 516.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Chris Murphy (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0152 (Temp: 0.9916 | Wind: 1.0238)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.0 - CLE 3.6
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.0 - CLE 3.6
Win Probability: CWS 54.4% - CLE 45.6%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -119 / CLE +119
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.0: 48.5%
Under 7.0: 40.9%
CWS +1.5: 71.8%
CLE -1.5: 28.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.2 - CLE 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.2 - CLE 1.7
F5 Win Prob: CWS 60.0% - CLE 40.0% (Tie: 19.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -150 / CLE +150
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +129 -119 +10.7%
CLE ML -156 +119 -15.3%
CWS +1.5 -181 -254 +7.4%
CLE -1.5 +149 +254 -12.0%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -3.9%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -11.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Chicago White Sox (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +129 | Edge: 10.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01175
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | September 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Troy Melton Home: José Soriano
ERA: 2.42 ERA: 3.48
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 7.25 K/9: 8.5
BB/9: 2.5 BB/9: 3.92
FIP: 3.89 FIP: 3.79
IP: 108.0 IP: 163.0
xERA: 3.69 xERA: 4.46
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET TOR Lg Avg
Record 70-79 75-75
R/Game 4.47 4.05 4.50
RA/Game 4.00 4.26 4.50
OPS 0.715 0.698 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.301 0.310
ERA 3.65 3.90 4.19
FIP 3.86 3.89 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.29 1.31
K/9 8.15 8.82 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.551 0.477 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.31 3.45 4.26
BP FIP 4.42 3.94 4.06
BP WHIP 1.34 1.27
BP K/9 8.24 8.28
BP Quality* 51.2 50.0 46.3
BP IP 459.7 305.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brant Hurter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Braydon Fisher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ricky Tiedemann (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9839 (Temp: 0.9866 | Wind: 0.9973)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 4.3 - TOR 3.8
Simulated Avg: DET 4.3 - TOR 3.8
Win Probability: DET 54.9% - TOR 45.1%
Fair Moneyline: DET -122 / TOR +122
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 53.3%
Under 7.5: 46.7%
DET +1.5: 71.5%
TOR -1.5: 28.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.3 - TOR 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.3 - TOR 1.9
F5 Win Prob: DET 58.2% - TOR 41.8% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -139 / TOR +139
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +114 -122 +8.2%
TOR ML -138 +122 -12.9%
DET +1.5 -186 -251 +6.5%
TOR -1.5 +153 +251 -11.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -5.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets
Regular Season | September 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brandon Young Home: Jonah Tong
ERA: 3.71 ERA: 4.8
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 7.17 K/9: 8.4
BB/9: 3.2 BB/9: 4.8
FIP: 4.42 FIP: 4.57
IP: 140.7 IP: 15.0
xERA: 4.4 xERA: 3.69
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYM Lg Avg
Record 72-78 69-80
R/Game 4.48 4.32 4.50
RA/Game 4.71 4.54 4.50
OPS 0.709 0.704 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.20 4.18 4.19
FIP 4.01 3.91 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.14 9.00 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.477 0.476 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 4.42 4.26
BP FIP 3.70 4.22 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.35
BP K/9 8.89 9.19
BP Quality* 46.9 47.4 46.3
BP IP 498.3 305.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yaramil Hiraldo (49 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0098 (Temp: 0.9918 | Wind: 1.0181)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.5 - NYM 4.4
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.5 - NYM 4.3
Win Probability: BAL 50.8% - NYM 49.2%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -103 / NYM +103
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 50.1%
Under 8.0: 40.7%
BAL -1.5: 35.1%
NYM +1.5: 64.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.5 - NYM 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.5 - NYM 2.4
F5 Win Prob: BAL 52.2% - NYM 47.8% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -109 / NYM +109
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +103 -103 +1.6%
NYM ML -124 +103 -6.2%
BAL -1.5 +167 +185 -2.4%
NYM +1.5 -204 -185 -2.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | September 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Reynaldo López Home: David Peterson
ERA: 4.13 ERA: 5.28
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.58
K/9: 8.37 K/9: 8.02
BB/9: 3.77 BB/9: 4.04
FIP: 4.37 FIP: 4.05
IP: 76.3 IP: 131.3
xERA: 4.81 xERA: 5.01
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.341
Pitcher Edge: CHC (David Peterson)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL CHC Lg Avg
Record 88-62 83-67
R/Game 4.62 5.33 4.50
RA/Game 3.85 4.41 4.50
OPS 0.721 0.769 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.331 0.310
ERA 3.59 4.19 4.19
FIP 3.95 4.57 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.49 7.80 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.583 0.586 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.46 4.56 4.26
BP FIP 3.52 4.62 4.06
BP WHIP 1.20 1.37
BP K/9 9.13 8.66
BP Quality* 44.2 52.9 46.3
BP IP 406.0 516.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Dylan Lee (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ray Kerr (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aaron Civale (45 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Daniel Palencia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9729 (Temp: 0.9954 | Wind: 0.9773)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 5.2 - CHC 5.6
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.2 - CHC 5.6
Win Probability: ATL 46.3% - CHC 53.7%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +116 / CHC -116
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 9.5: 57.8%
Under 9.5: 42.2%
ATL +1.5: 60.7%
CHC -1.5: 39.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.9 - CHC 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.9 - CHC 3.2
F5 Win Prob: ATL 45.0% - CHC 55.0% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +122 / CHC -122
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML +113 +116 -0.6%
CHC ML -136 -116 -4.0%
ATL +1.5 -175 -154 -3.0%
CHC -1.5 +144 +154 -1.6%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +5.5%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -10.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | September 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Will Warren Home: Dean Kremer
ERA: 4.05 ERA: 5.65
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 8.92 K/9: 8.67
BB/9: 3.1 BB/9: 3.14
FIP: 4.07 FIP: 5.12
IP: 142.3 IP: 71.7
xERA: 4.49 xERA: 4.62
xwOBA: 0.325 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Will Warren)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY MIN Lg Avg
Record 86-63 70-79
R/Game 4.54 4.58 4.50
RA/Game 3.70 5.00 4.50
OPS 0.721 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.313 0.310
ERA 3.24 4.69 4.19
FIP 3.60 4.16 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.38 1.31
K/9 9.05 8.54 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.592 0.460 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.16 4.60 4.26
BP FIP 3.97 3.97 4.06
BP WHIP 1.20 1.43
BP K/9 8.14 8.99
BP Quality* 45.6 53.6 46.3
BP IP 529.7 542.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Blackburn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Travis Adams (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 29 mph)
Precip Chance: 64%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), wind in (12 mph) | Rain likely (64%)
Weather Factor: 0.9560 (Temp: 0.9868 | Wind: 0.9687)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 5.1 - MIN 4.5
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.1 - MIN 4.5
Win Probability: NYY 55.4% - MIN 44.6%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -124 / MIN +124
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.0: 56.8%
Under 8.0: 34.5%
NYY -1.5: 40.5%
MIN +1.5: 59.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.9 - MIN 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.9 - MIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: NYY 56.5% - MIN 43.5% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -130 / MIN +130
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -126 -124 -0.4%
MIN ML +105 +124 -4.2%
NYY -1.5 +130 +147 -2.9%
MIN +1.5 -157 -147 -1.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +4.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -17.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | September 14, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Landen Roupp Home: Quinn Mathews
ERA: 4.0 ERA: 4.11
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.5
K/9: 8.3 K/9: 8.22
BB/9: 4.3 BB/9: 4.11
FIP: 3.64 FIP: 3.91
IP: 150.7 IP: 30.7
xERA: 3.72 xERA: 3.54
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.291
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF STL Lg Avg
Record 62-88 74-76
R/Game 4.21 4.55 4.50
RA/Game 4.73 4.60 4.50
OPS 0.715 0.702 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.38 4.29 4.19
FIP 4.08 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.35 1.31
K/9 7.62 8.00 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.448 0.495 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.69 4.61 4.26
BP FIP 4.44 4.08 4.06
BP WHIP 1.50 1.38
BP K/9 6.84 8.22
BP Quality* 52.7 58.5 46.3
BP IP 469.7 533.0
Bullpen Edge: SF (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Matt Wilkinson (37 pitches yesterday)
STL: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
UNAVAIL: George Soriano (B2B, 29 pitches)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9983 (Temp: 1.0151 | Wind: 0.9834)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 4.3 - STL 4.6
Simulated Avg: SF 4.3 - STL 4.5
Win Probability: SF 47.2% - STL 52.8%
Fair Moneyline: SF +112 / STL -112
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 50.2%
Under 8.0: 40.5%
SF +1.5: 63.6%
STL -1.5: 36.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.1 - STL 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.1 - STL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SF 47.5% - STL 52.5% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +111 / STL -111
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +119 +112 +1.5%
STL ML -143 -112 -6.0%
SF +1.5 -186 -175 -1.4%
STL -1.5 +153 +175 -3.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | September 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Casey Mize Home: Tomoyuki Sugano
ERA: 3.7 ERA: 5.3
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 8.07 K/9: 5.49
BB/9: 2.19 BB/9: 2.16
FIP: 3.56 FIP: 5.34
IP: 119.3 IP: 137.7
xERA: 3.49 xERA: 6.7
xwOBA: 0.289 xwOBA: 0.386
Pitcher Edge: SD (Casey Mize)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD COL Lg Avg
Record 81-68 55-94
R/Game 4.29 4.67 4.50
RA/Game 4.14 5.81 4.50
OPS 0.706 0.737 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.317 0.310
ERA 3.91 5.57 4.19
FIP 4.03 4.71 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.53 1.31
K/9 8.30 7.02 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.516 0.402 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.76 5.03 4.26
BP FIP 2.97 4.43 4.06
BP WHIP 1.14 1.54
BP K/9 11.13 7.54
BP Quality* 40.1 58.4 46.3
BP IP 309.7 300.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Zach Agnos (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Nick Frasso (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jaden Hill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9924 (Temp: 1.0126 | Wind: 0.9801)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 6.4 - COL 4.7
Simulated Avg: SD 6.4 - COL 4.7
Win Probability: SD 64.5% - COL 35.5%
Fair Moneyline: SD -182 / COL +182
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 11.0: 43.7%
Under 11.0: 48.5%
SD -1.5: 50.9%
COL +1.5: 49.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 3.7 - COL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 3.8 - COL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SD 65.8% - COL 34.2% (Tie: 13.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SD -193 / COL +193
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML -208 -182 -3.0%
COL ML +170 +182 -1.5%
SD -1.5 -133 -104 -6.2%
COL +1.5 +111 +104 +1.7%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -3.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | September 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kade Anderson Home: Reid Detmers
ERA: 4.29 ERA: 3.32
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 6.86 K/9: 10.23
BB/9: 3.43 BB/9: 2.41
FIP: 5.2 FIP: 2.95
IP: 21.0 IP: 168.0
xERA: 4.02 xERA: 3.19
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.277
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA LAA Lg Avg
Record 70-80 56-93
R/Game 4.08 4.05 4.50
RA/Game 4.47 4.56 4.50
OPS 0.692 0.680 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.22 4.22 4.19
FIP 3.90 3.95 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.65 9.10 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.459 0.446 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.40 4.65 4.26
BP FIP 4.18 4.15 4.06
BP WHIP 1.37 1.42
BP K/9 8.59 9.14
BP Quality* 50.4 51.5 46.3
BP IP 492.7 393.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Carlos Vargas (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Luke Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9783 (Temp: 0.9994 | Wind: 0.9789)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 3.5 - LAA 4.3
Simulated Avg: SEA 3.5 - LAA 4.3
Win Probability: SEA 42.0% - LAA 58.0%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +138 / LAA -138
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.5: 50.2%
Under 7.5: 49.8%
SEA -1.5: 25.5%
LAA +1.5: 74.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 1.6 - LAA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 1.6 - LAA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: SEA 37.9% - LAA 62.1% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA +164 / LAA -164
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -114 +138 -11.3%
LAA ML -106 -138 +6.5%
SEA -1.5 +149 +292 -14.6%
LAA +1.5 -181 -292 +10.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -2.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -2.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | September 14, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sandy Alcantara Home: Corbin Burnes
ERA: 3.78 ERA: 0.0
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 6.44 K/9: 6.0
BB/9: 2.48 BB/9: 6.0
FIP: 3.92 FIP: 3.77
IP: 200.0 IP: 3.0
xERA: 3.91 xERA: 4.4
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA ARI Lg Avg
Record 74-76 79-71
R/Game 4.44 4.43 4.50
RA/Game 4.40 4.42 4.50
OPS 0.728 0.710 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.10 4.09 4.19
FIP 3.97 4.17 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.22 7.01 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.504 0.501 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.54 3.37 4.26
BP FIP 3.93 3.44 4.06
BP WHIP 1.34 1.18
BP K/9 8.77 7.85
BP Quality* 51.2 42.3 46.3
BP IP 501.7 472.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dax Fulton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 95°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Hot (95°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0143 (Temp: 1.0351 | Wind: 0.9799)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 3.7 - ARI 4.6
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.7 - ARI 4.6
Win Probability: MIA 40.9% - ARI 59.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +145 / ARI -145
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 45.6%
Under 8.0: 44.9%
MIA +1.5: 58.2%
ARI -1.5: 41.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 1.9 - ARI 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 1.9 - ARI 2.4
F5 Win Prob: MIA 42.5% - ARI 57.5% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +135 / ARI -135
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +112 +145 -6.3%
ARI ML -135 -145 +1.7%
MIA +1.5 -193 -139 -7.7%
ARI -1.5 +158 +139 +3.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -6.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================