2026-09-15
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-15
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | September 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Home: Rhett Lowder
ERA: 2.62 ERA: 5.81
WHIP: 0.88 WHIP: 1.53
K/9: 8.95 K/9: 7.09
BB/9: 2.04 BB/9: 3.7
FIP: 3.23 FIP: 4.61
IP: 172.0 IP: 119.3
xERA: 3.03 xERA: 5.35
xwOBA: 0.27 xwOBA: 0.351
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD CIN Lg Avg
Record 91-59 70-80
R/Game 4.97 4.17 4.50
RA/Game 3.81 5.15 4.50
OPS 0.757 0.703 0.720
wOBA 0.324 0.304 0.310
ERA 3.66 4.88 4.19
FIP 3.67 4.62 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.44 1.30
K/9 9.40 8.23 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.619 0.404 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.07 4.89 4.26
BP FIP 3.79 4.62 4.06
BP WHIP 1.29 1.47
BP K/9 9.77 8.74
BP Quality* 45.3 55.1 46.3
BP IP 467.0 557.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tony Santillan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0111 (Temp: 1.0279 | Wind: 0.9837)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 6.4 - CIN 3.8
Simulated Avg: LAD 6.4 - CIN 3.8
Win Probability: LAD 72.3% - CIN 27.7%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -262 / CIN +262
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 8.5: 61.0%
Under 8.5: 39.0%
LAD -1.5: 58.8%
CIN +1.5: 41.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 3.6 - CIN 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.6 - CIN 1.8
F5 Win Prob: LAD 75.7% - CIN 24.3% (Tie: 13.0%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -312 / CIN +312
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -240 -262 +1.8%
CIN ML +195 +262 -6.2%
LAD -1.5 -143 -143 -0.0%
CIN +1.5 +118 +143 -4.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +8.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -13.3%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.0% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.6%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.50%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01176
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | September 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jack Perkins Home: Griffin Jax
ERA: 6.53 ERA: 3.99
WHIP: 1.53 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 10.36 K/9: 9.33
BB/9: 4.09 BB/9: 2.99
FIP: 4.68 FIP: 3.99
IP: 103.3 IP: 99.3
xERA: 4.08 xERA: 4.59
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: TB (Griffin Jax)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH TB Lg Avg
Record 61-89 90-59
R/Game 4.37 4.58 4.50
RA/Game 5.73 4.11 4.50
OPS 0.723 0.736 0.720
wOBA 0.311 0.314 0.310
ERA 5.42 3.78 4.19
FIP 4.75 3.96 4.04
WHIP 1.50 1.14 1.30
K/9 8.49 8.15 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.379 0.549 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.88 3.51 4.26
BP FIP 4.67 3.92 4.06
BP WHIP 1.61 1.12
BP K/9 8.97 8.71
BP Quality* 56.5 41.1 46.3
BP IP 564.7 420.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 3.9 - TB 5.4
Simulated Avg: ATH 3.9 - TB 5.4
Win Probability: ATH 36.3% - TB 63.7%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +176 / TB -176
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.0: 54.2%
Under 8.0: 36.9%
ATH +1.5: 52.2%
TB -1.5: 47.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 2.3 - TB 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.3 - TB 2.9
F5 Win Prob: ATH 40.8% - TB 59.2% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +145 / TB -145
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +193 +176 +2.1%
TB ML -238 -176 -6.7%
ATH +1.5 -114 -109 -1.1%
TB -1.5 -106 +109 -3.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +1.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -15.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | September 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Davis Martin Home: Foster Griffin
ERA: 4.05 ERA: 3.65
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 7.63 K/9: 8.08
BB/9: 2.79 BB/9: 2.38
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 3.94
IP: 135.7 IP: 162.7
xERA: 4.71 xERA: 4.34
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Davis Martin)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
Record 77-73 76-75
R/Game 4.68 4.09 4.50
RA/Game 4.43 4.17 4.50
OPS 0.722 0.688 0.720
wOBA 0.311 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.11 3.79 4.19
FIP 4.05 3.69 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.36 9.59 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.525 0.492 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 3.60 4.26
BP FIP 4.25 3.46 4.06
BP WHIP 1.36 1.27
BP K/9 8.27 10.08
BP Quality* 51.5 41.9 46.3
BP IP 344.0 518.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Sean Burke (94 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hagen Smith (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Slade Cecconi (41 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9770 (Temp: 1.0118 | Wind: 0.9656)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.1 - CLE 4.1
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.0 - CLE 4.1
Win Probability: CWS 49.7% - CLE 50.3%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +101 / CLE -101
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.5: 43.6%
Under 8.5: 56.4%
CWS +1.5: 66.8%
CLE -1.5: 33.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.3 - CLE 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.3 - CLE 2.1
F5 Win Prob: CWS 53.6% - CLE 46.4% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -116 / CLE +116
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +129 +101 +6.1%
CLE ML -156 -101 -10.7%
CWS +1.5 -175 -202 +3.2%
CLE -1.5 +144 +202 -7.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +4.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | September 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob Misiorowski Home: Lake Bachar
ERA: 1.95 ERA: 3.52
WHIP: 0.8 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 13.17 K/9: 9.42
BB/9: 2.29 BB/9: 3.74
FIP: 2.06 FIP: 4.39
IP: 161.3 IP: 79.3
xERA: 2.1 xERA: 3.51
xwOBA: 0.225 xwOBA: 0.29
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PIT Lg Avg
Record 93-57 75-75
R/Game 5.19 4.79 4.50
RA/Game 3.89 4.61 4.50
OPS 0.747 0.731 0.720
wOBA 0.321 0.318 0.310
ERA 3.57 4.18 4.19
FIP 3.59 3.68 4.04
WHIP 1.19 1.30 1.30
K/9 9.63 9.21 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.629 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 3.92 4.26
BP FIP 3.55 3.59 4.06
BP WHIP 1.26 1.33
BP K/9 9.01 9.47
BP Quality* 44.9 42.8 46.3
BP IP 514.7 477.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: DL Hall (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0001 (Temp: 1.0034 | Wind: 0.9967)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 4.6 - PIT 3.3
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.6 - PIT 3.3
Win Probability: MIL 63.4% - PIT 36.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -173 / PIT +173
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 7.5: 51.4%
Under 7.5: 48.6%
MIL -1.5: 46.3%
PIT +1.5: 53.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.6 - PIT 1.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.6 - PIT 1.3
F5 Win Prob: MIL 73.6% - PIT 26.4% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -279 / PIT +279
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -225 -173 -5.8%
PIT ML +183 +173 +1.3%
MIL -1.5 -125 +116 -9.2%
PIT +1.5 +104 -116 +4.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -1.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -3.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | September 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cristopher Sánchez Home: Jackson Kent
ERA: 2.79 ERA: 6.59
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.83
K/9: 10.09 K/9: 7.57
BB/9: 2.02 BB/9: 6.59
FIP: 2.64 FIP: 4.09
IP: 187.3 IP: 27.3
xERA: 3.31 xERA: 5.49
xwOBA: 0.282 xwOBA: 0.355
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI WSH Lg Avg
Record 83-67 70-81
R/Game 4.50 5.11 4.50
RA/Game 4.29 5.09 4.50
OPS 0.712 0.749 0.720
wOBA 0.306 0.321 0.310
ERA 4.00 4.74 4.19
FIP 3.66 4.55 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.39 1.30
K/9 9.86 7.97 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.521 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.23 6.08 4.26
BP FIP 3.65 5.10 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.59
BP K/9 10.02 8.66
BP Quality* 43.7 60.6 46.3
BP IP 495.7 488.3
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jack Sinclair (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0021 (Temp: 1.0024 | Wind: 0.9997)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 5.7 - WSH 4.1
Simulated Avg: PHI 5.7 - WSH 4.1
Win Probability: PHI 64.3% - WSH 35.6%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -181 / WSH +181
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.0: 58.2%
Under 8.0: 33.2%
PHI -1.5: 49.8%
WSH +1.5: 50.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 3.2 - WSH 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 3.2 - WSH 1.9
F5 Win Prob: PHI 69.3% - WSH 30.7% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -225 / WSH +225
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -217 -181 -4.1%
WSH ML +177 +181 -0.5%
PHI -1.5 -125 +101 -5.8%
WSH +1.5 +104 -101 +1.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +5.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -19.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | September 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Drew Anderson Home: Braydon Fisher
ERA: 3.8 ERA: 3.22
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 9.74 K/9: 8.92
BB/9: 3.71 BB/9: 4.71
FIP: 4.05 FIP: 4.12
IP: 97.0 IP: 72.7
xERA: 3.91 xERA: 4.02
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET TOR Lg Avg
Record 71-79 75-76
R/Game 4.48 4.06 4.50
RA/Game 4.01 4.27 4.50
OPS 0.715 0.697 0.720
wOBA 0.309 0.301 0.310
ERA 3.66 3.91 4.19
FIP 3.86 3.88 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.29 1.30
K/9 8.14 8.81 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.551 0.477 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.32 3.48 4.26
BP FIP 4.43 3.93 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.28
BP K/9 8.23 8.27
BP Quality* 52.7 50.1 46.3
BP IP 464.7 308.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Beau Brieske (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Joe Mantiply (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Louis Varland (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 36%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9849 (Temp: 0.9951 | Wind: 0.9898)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 4.3 - TOR 4.2
Simulated Avg: DET 4.3 - TOR 4.2
Win Probability: DET 50.8% - TOR 49.2%
Fair Moneyline: DET -103 / TOR +103
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.5: 46.4%
Under 8.5: 53.6%
DET +1.5: 67.5%
TOR -1.5: 32.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.2 - TOR 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.2 - TOR 2.1
F5 Win Prob: DET 52.2% - TOR 47.8% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -109 / TOR +109
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +119 -103 +5.1%
TOR ML -144 +103 -9.8%
DET +1.5 -181 -208 +3.1%
TOR -1.5 +149 +208 -7.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -6.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +1.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets
Regular Season | September 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane Baz Home: Sean Manaea
ERA: 4.05 ERA: 4.79
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 7.99 K/9: 8.51
BB/9: 3.09 BB/9: 2.77
FIP: 3.43 FIP: 4.18
IP: 169.0 IP: 133.3
xERA: 4.14 xERA: 4.97
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.34
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Shane Baz)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYM Lg Avg
Record 73-78 69-81
R/Game 4.46 4.29 4.50
RA/Game 4.69 4.53 4.50
OPS 0.709 0.703 0.720
wOBA 0.307 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.18 4.16 4.19
FIP 4.01 3.90 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.13 9.02 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.477 0.476 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.10 4.33 4.26
BP FIP 3.69 4.18 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.35
BP K/9 8.85 9.21
BP Quality* 46.6 46.9 46.3
BP IP 502.3 313.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Sanders (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9915 (Temp: 0.9915 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.5 - NYM 4.0
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.5 - NYM 4.0
Win Probability: BAL 54.2% - NYM 45.8%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -118 / NYM +118
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 47.0%
Under 8.0: 43.7%
BAL +1.5: 70.7%
NYM -1.5: 29.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.6 - NYM 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.6 - NYM 2.1
F5 Win Prob: BAL 58.4% - NYM 41.6% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -140 / NYM +140
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +113 -118 +7.3%
NYM ML -136 +118 -11.8%
BAL +1.5 -188 -241 +5.4%
NYM -1.5 +154 +241 -10.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | September 15, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Martín Pérez Home: Kevin Gausman
ERA: 3.08 ERA: 4.6
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 6.7 K/9: 9.25
BB/9: 3.83 BB/9: 2.49
FIP: 4.17 FIP: 3.75
IP: 131.7 IP: 166.3
xERA: 4.59 xERA: 4.02
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Kevin Gausman)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL CHC Lg Avg
Record 88-63 84-67
R/Game 4.61 5.34 4.50
RA/Game 3.87 4.40 4.50
OPS 0.721 0.771 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.331 0.310
ERA 3.62 4.18 4.19
FIP 3.96 4.56 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.27 1.30
K/9 8.47 7.81 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.580 0.588 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.46 4.55 4.26
BP FIP 3.52 4.63 4.06
BP WHIP 1.20 1.37
BP K/9 9.13 8.64
BP Quality* 41.2 54.5 46.3
BP IP 406.0 518.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: AJ Smith-Shawver (81 pitches yesterday)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Javier Assad (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0173 (Temp: 1.0021 | Wind: 1.0152)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 5.0 - CHC 5.4
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.1 - CHC 5.4
Win Probability: ATL 46.6% - CHC 53.4%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +115 / CHC -115
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 8.5: 63.1%
Under 8.5: 36.9%
ATL +1.5: 61.2%
CHC -1.5: 38.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.6 - CHC 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.6 - CHC 3.1
F5 Win Prob: ATL 42.6% - CHC 57.4% (Tie: 14.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +135 / CHC -135
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML +119 +115 +0.9%
CHC ML -143 -115 -5.4%
ATL +1.5 -180 -158 -3.1%
CHC -1.5 +148 +158 -1.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +10.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -15.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01177
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | September 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Max Fried Home: Bailey Ober
ERA: 2.73 ERA: 4.28
WHIP: 0.99 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 8.55 K/9: 6.5
BB/9: 2.82 BB/9: 2.6
FIP: 2.67 FIP: 4.51
IP: 99.0 IP: 117.7
xERA: 2.57 xERA: 4.56
xwOBA: 0.249 xwOBA: 0.327
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Max Fried)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY MIN Lg Avg
Record 87-63 70-80
R/Game 4.57 4.57 4.50
RA/Game 3.70 5.02 4.50
OPS 0.722 0.722 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.22 4.71 4.19
FIP 3.61 4.17 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.38 1.30
K/9 9.03 8.54 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.595 0.457 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.16 4.64 4.26
BP FIP 4.00 4.00 4.06
BP WHIP 1.20 1.43
BP K/9 8.11 8.99
BP Quality* 42.8 55.4 46.3
BP IP 533.0 545.3
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0183 (Temp: 0.9932 | Wind: 1.0254)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 5.2 - MIN 3.6
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.2 - MIN 3.6
Win Probability: NYY 64.7% - MIN 35.3%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -184 / MIN +184
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 49.1%
Under 8.0: 41.5%
NYY -1.5: 48.8%
MIN +1.5: 51.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.8 - MIN 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.8 - MIN 1.7
F5 Win Prob: NYY 68.7% - MIN 31.3% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -219 / MIN +219
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -180 -184 +0.5%
MIN ML +148 +184 -5.1%
NYY -1.5 -104 +105 -2.2%
MIN +1.5 -115 -105 -2.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | September 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Blade Tidwell Home: Andre Pallante
ERA: 4.82 ERA: 3.45
WHIP: 1.29 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 7.33 K/9: 6.29
BB/9: 3.86 BB/9: 2.77
FIP: 4.43 FIP: 3.52
IP: 46.7 IP: 146.0
xERA: 4.46 xERA: 3.91
xwOBA: 0.324 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: STL (Andre Pallante)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF STL Lg Avg
Record 62-89 75-76
R/Game 4.19 4.54 4.50
RA/Game 4.71 4.58 4.50
OPS 0.714 0.701 0.720
wOBA 0.305 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.37 4.27 4.19
FIP 4.07 3.92 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.35 1.30
K/9 7.61 8.03 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.447 0.496 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.66 4.59 4.26
BP FIP 4.43 4.07 4.06
BP WHIP 1.50 1.38
BP K/9 6.83 8.25
BP Quality* 57.0 53.9 46.3
BP IP 473.3 535.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Trent Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joel Kuhnel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Reiver Sanmartin (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Justin Bruihl (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: George Soriano (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 88°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Hot (88°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0356 (Temp: 1.0241 | Wind: 1.0111)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 4.2 - STL 5.4
Simulated Avg: SF 4.2 - STL 5.4
Win Probability: SF 38.3% - STL 61.7%
Fair Moneyline: SF +161 / STL -161
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.0: 56.9%
Under 8.0: 34.4%
SF +1.5: 53.6%
STL -1.5: 46.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.0 - STL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.0 - STL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: SF 37.4% - STL 62.6% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +167 / STL -167
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +138 +161 -3.7%
STL ML -168 -161 -1.0%
SF +1.5 -155 -116 -7.2%
STL -1.5 +128 +116 +2.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +4.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -18.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | September 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Patrick Sandoval Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS TEX Lg Avg
Record 82-68 74-76
R/Game 4.42 4.16 4.50
RA/Game 3.83 4.45 4.50
OPS 0.726 0.717 0.720
wOBA 0.312 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.59 4.32 4.19
FIP 3.56 4.01 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.31 1.30
K/9 8.75 8.61 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.565 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 4.59 4.26
BP FIP 3.50 4.31 4.06
BP WHIP 1.25 1.40
BP K/9 9.42 8.43
BP Quality* 42.9 51.9 46.3
BP IP 413.7 518.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Aroldis Chapman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robert Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 95°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (95°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0084 (Temp: 1.0344 | Wind: 0.9749)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 4.9 - TEX 4.6
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.8 - TEX 4.6
Win Probability: BOS 51.6% - TEX 48.4%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -107 / TEX +107
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.0: 55.5%
Under 8.0: 35.6%
BOS -1.5: 36.5%
TEX +1.5: 63.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.6 - TEX 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.6 - TEX 2.7
F5 Win Prob: BOS 48.1% - TEX 51.9% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +108 / TEX -108
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -113 -107 -1.4%
TEX ML -107 +107 -3.3%
BOS -1.5 +145 +174 -4.3%
TEX +1.5 -175 -174 -0.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +3.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -16.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | September 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael Wacha Home: Hunter Brown
ERA: 3.25 ERA: 3.52
WHIP: 1.11 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 7.24 K/9: 9.78
BB/9: 2.36 BB/9: 4.5
FIP: 3.99 FIP: 3.98
IP: 182.7 IP: 92.0
xERA: 3.88 xERA: 3.38
xwOBA: 0.304 xwOBA: 0.285
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC HOU Lg Avg
Record 66-84 75-75
R/Game 4.23 4.46 4.50
RA/Game 4.85 4.81 4.50
OPS 0.715 0.722 0.720
wOBA 0.307 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.63 4.55 4.19
FIP 4.45 4.38 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.35 1.30
K/9 7.41 8.83 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.437 0.465 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.80 4.19 4.26
BP FIP 5.22 4.27 4.06
BP WHIP 1.62 1.29
BP K/9 7.57 9.06
BP Quality* 59.2 46.4 46.3
BP IP 499.7 511.3
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0024 (Temp: 1.0164 | Wind: 0.9863)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 3.8 - HOU 4.8
Simulated Avg: KC 3.8 - HOU 4.8
Win Probability: KC 39.9% - HOU 60.1%
Fair Moneyline: KC +151 / HOU -151
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.0: 48.1%
Under 8.0: 42.6%
KC +1.5: 56.7%
HOU -1.5: 43.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.0 - HOU 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.0 - HOU 2.2
F5 Win Prob: KC 45.9% - HOU 54.1% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +118 / HOU -118
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +139 +151 -2.0%
HOU ML -168 -151 -2.6%
KC +1.5 -157 -131 -4.4%
HOU -1.5 +130 +131 -0.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | September 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Walker Buehler Home: Kyle Freeland
ERA: 4.61 ERA: 6.37
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 7.85 K/9: 7.46
BB/9: 3.44 BB/9: 2.03
FIP: 4.28 FIP: 4.63
IP: 138.7 IP: 124.3
xERA: 4.17 xERA: 5.18
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.346
Pitcher Edge: SD (Walker Buehler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD COL Lg Avg
Record 82-68 55-95
R/Game 4.31 4.69 4.50
RA/Game 4.16 5.82 4.50
OPS 0.708 0.740 0.720
wOBA 0.305 0.318 0.310
ERA 3.93 5.59 4.19
FIP 4.04 4.72 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.53 1.30
K/9 8.25 7.03 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.517 0.402 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.77 5.02 4.26
BP FIP 2.96 4.39 4.06
BP WHIP 1.15 1.55
BP K/9 11.12 7.62
BP Quality* 40.1 56.7 46.3
BP IP 311.7 304.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Kyle Hart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jaden Hill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0111 (Temp: 1.0003 | Wind: 1.0108)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 6.1 - COL 5.4
Simulated Avg: SD 6.1 - COL 5.4
Win Probability: SD 56.0% - COL 44.0%
Fair Moneyline: SD -127 / COL +127
Avg Total Runs: 11.5
Over 11.5: 47.2%
Under 11.5: 52.8%
SD -1.5: 42.8%
COL +1.5: 57.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 3.5 - COL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 3.5 - COL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: SD 53.7% - COL 46.3% (Tie: 13.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SD -116 / COL +116
F5 Avg Total: 6.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML -194 -127 -9.9%
COL ML +159 +127 +5.3%
SD -1.5 -125 +134 -12.7%
COL +1.5 +104 -134 +8.2%
O 11.5 -110 N/A -5.2%
U 11.5 -110 N/A +0.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line) [+104]
Model: 57.2% | Market: 49.0% | Edge: 8.2%
Fair ML: -134 | Kelly: 4.01%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01178
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | September 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Gilbert Home: Ryan Johnson
ERA: 3.72 ERA: 5.12
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 9.78 K/9: 6.72
BB/9: 2.3 BB/9: 4.16
FIP: 3.73 FIP: 5.77
IP: 172.0 IP: 84.3
xERA: 3.64 xERA: 5.21
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.347
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Logan Gilbert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA LAA Lg Avg
Record 70-81 57-93
R/Game 4.08 4.07 4.50
RA/Game 4.48 4.56 4.50
OPS 0.692 0.680 0.720
wOBA 0.302 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.24 4.22 4.19
FIP 3.89 3.95 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.34 1.30
K/9 8.65 9.11 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.458 0.448 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.39 4.64 4.26
BP FIP 4.17 4.17 4.06
BP WHIP 1.37 1.42
BP K/9 8.56 9.14
BP Quality* 50.3 51.5 46.3
BP IP 496.3 396.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cooper Criswell (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Blake Weiman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ben Joyce (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9807 (Temp: 1.0005 | Wind: 0.9803)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.8 - LAA 4.0
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.8 - LAA 4.0
Win Probability: SEA 58.3% - LAA 41.7%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -140 / LAA +140
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 49.8%
Under 8.0: 40.8%
SEA -1.5: 42.1%
LAA +1.5: 57.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.9 - LAA 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.9 - LAA 2.0
F5 Win Prob: SEA 64.9% - LAA 35.1% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -185 / LAA +185
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -174 -140 -5.2%
LAA ML +144 +140 +0.7%
SEA -1.5 -101 +137 -8.1%
LAA +1.5 -120 -137 +3.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | September 15, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Janson Junk Home: Michael Soroka
ERA: 4.54 ERA: 3.53
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 6.0 K/9: 8.61
BB/9: 2.43 BB/9: 2.27
FIP: 4.1 FIP: 2.86
IP: 111.0 IP: 99.3
xERA: 4.37 xERA: 4.31
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.319
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Michael Soroka)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA ARI Lg Avg
Record 74-77 80-71
R/Game 4.46 4.46 4.50
RA/Game 4.42 4.44 4.50
OPS 0.729 0.713 0.720
wOBA 0.315 0.306 0.310
ERA 4.13 4.11 4.19
FIP 3.98 4.17 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.24 7.05 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.503 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 3.44 4.26
BP FIP 3.97 3.44 4.06
BP WHIP 1.34 1.19
BP K/9 8.79 7.95
BP Quality* 54.5 42.6 46.3
BP IP 505.0 481.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Jack Ralston (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pete Fairbanks (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jonathan Loáisiga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0255 (Temp: 1.0373 | Wind: 0.9885)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 4.0 - ARI 5.1
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.0 - ARI 5.1
Win Probability: MIA 38.8% - ARI 61.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +158 / ARI -158
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 52.4%
Under 8.5: 47.5%
MIA +1.5: 55.3%
ARI -1.5: 44.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 2.1 - ARI 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.1 - ARI 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIA 41.4% - ARI 58.6% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +142 / ARI -142
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +129 +158 -4.9%
ARI ML -156 -158 +0.3%
MIA +1.5 -171 -124 -7.8%
ARI -1.5 +141 +124 +3.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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