2026-09-16
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-16
Games: 15 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | September 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Anthony Kay Home: Parker Messick
ERA: 4.53 ERA: 2.51
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.03
K/9: 7.32 K/9: 9.3
BB/9: 3.17 BB/9: 2.45
FIP: 4.32 FIP: 3.06
IP: 145.0 IP: 172.3
xERA: 5.0 xERA: 3.07
xwOBA: 0.341 xwOBA: 0.272
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
Record 77-74 77-75
R/Game 4.69 4.11 4.49
RA/Game 4.44 4.18 4.49
OPS 0.722 0.689 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.12 3.80 4.18
FIP 4.08 3.68 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.32 9.61 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.525 0.493 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.12 3.63 4.25
BP FIP 4.36 3.45 4.06
BP WHIP 1.36 1.27
BP K/9 8.13 10.10
BP Quality* 50.5 44.9 46.3
BP IP 312.0 523.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Davis Martin (71 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Munetaka Murakami, Sam Antonacci, Andrew Benintendi
Munetaka Murakami First Base OPS: 0.804 (415 AB)
Sam Antonacci Outfielder OPS: 0.760 (450 AB)
Andrew Benintendi Designated Hitter OPS: 0.725 (403 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.0% of full strength
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Chase DeLauter, Nathaniel Lowe, Angel Martínez, Kyle Manzardo
Chase DeLauter Outfielder OPS: 0.815 (464 AB)
Nathaniel Lowe First Base OPS: 0.776 (365 AB)
Angel Martínez Outfielder OPS: 0.728 (359 AB)
Kyle Manzardo First Base OPS: 0.684 (312 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 18%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0298 (Temp: 1.0129 | Wind: 1.0167)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 3.5 - CLE 4.2
Simulated Avg: CWS 3.5 - CLE 4.2
Win Probability: CWS 41.8% - CLE 58.2%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +139 / CLE -139
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.0: 48.1%
Under 7.0: 41.8%
CWS +1.5: 60.4%
CLE -1.5: 39.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 1.7 - CLE 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 1.7 - CLE 2.3
F5 Win Prob: CWS 37.7% - CLE 62.3% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +165 / CLE -165
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +135 +139 -0.7%
CLE ML -163 -139 -3.8%
CWS +1.5 -164 -152 -1.8%
CLE -1.5 +135 +152 -2.9%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -10.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | September 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Anthony Molina Home: Matthew Liberatore
ERA: 5.24 ERA: 5.53
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 7.66 K/9: 9.17
BB/9: 2.01 BB/9: 3.27
FIP: 3.82 FIP: 4.6
IP: 22.3 IP: 143.3
xERA: 4.37 xERA: 5.07
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.343
Pitcher Edge: SF (Anthony Molina)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SF STL Lg Avg
Record 63-89 75-77
R/Game 4.23 4.53 4.49
RA/Game 4.70 4.61 4.49
OPS 0.716 0.700 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.36 4.29 4.18
FIP 4.07 3.93 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.35 1.31
K/9 7.60 8.05 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.452 0.491 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.65 4.59 4.25
BP FIP 4.43 4.07 4.06
BP WHIP 1.49 1.39
BP K/9 6.81 8.34
BP Quality* 53.9 51.0 46.3
BP IP 475.7 539.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jason Foley (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Trent Harris (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cade Winquest (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brycen Mautz (40 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Rafael Devers, Casey Schmitt, Jesus Rodriguez, Willy Adames, Drew Gilbert
Rafael Devers First Base OPS: 0.865 (558 AB)
Casey Schmitt Outfielder OPS: 0.784 (387 AB)
Jesus Rodriguez Catcher OPS: 0.728 (51 AB)
Willy Adames Shortstop OPS: 0.713 (465 AB)
Drew Gilbert Outfielder OPS: 0.695 (325 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.4% of full strength
STL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Everson Pereira, Iván Herrera, Bryan Torres
Everson Pereira Outfielder OPS: 0.748 (98 AB)
Iván Herrera Designated Hitter OPS: 0.729 (570 AB)
Bryan Torres Outfielder OPS: 0.684 (152 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.8% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0271 (Temp: 1.0280 | Wind: 0.9991)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 4.3 - STL 5.1
Simulated Avg: SF 4.3 - STL 5.1
Win Probability: SF 42.6% - STL 57.4%
Fair Moneyline: SF +135 / STL -135
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 8.0: 54.7%
Under 8.0: 36.3%
SF +1.5: 58.2%
STL -1.5: 41.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 2.5 - STL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.5 - STL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: SF 46.6% - STL 53.4% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +115 / STL -115
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +135 +135 +0.0%
STL ML -163 -135 -4.5%
SF +1.5 -162 -139 -3.6%
STL -1.5 +134 +139 -0.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +2.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -16.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | September 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Carlos Rodón Home: Zebby Matthews
ERA: 2.94 ERA: 4.98
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 9.98 K/9: 7.47
BB/9: 4.48 BB/9: 2.79
FIP: 3.48 FIP: 4.88
IP: 70.3 IP: 119.3
xERA: 3.77 xERA: 4.65
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Carlos Rodón)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY MIN Lg Avg
Record 88-63 70-81
R/Game 4.59 4.55 4.49
RA/Game 3.68 5.04 4.49
OPS 0.723 0.721 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.21 4.70 4.18
FIP 3.59 4.18 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.38 1.31
K/9 9.01 8.52 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.599 0.453 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.15 4.61 4.25
BP FIP 4.00 4.02 4.06
BP WHIP 1.20 1.43
BP K/9 8.07 9.00
BP Quality* 41.2 53.9 46.3
BP IP 535.0 548.0
Bullpen Edge: NYY (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Andrew Morris (B2B, 30 pitches)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9924 (Temp: 0.9978 | Wind: 0.9946)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 5.2 - MIN 4.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 5.2 - MIN 4.0
Win Probability: NYY 62.1% - MIN 37.9%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -164 / MIN +164
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.0: 53.3%
Under 8.0: 37.5%
NYY -1.5: 46.5%
MIN +1.5: 53.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.9 - MIN 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.9 - MIN 2.1
F5 Win Prob: NYY 62.7% - MIN 37.3% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -168 / MIN +168
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -163 -164 +0.1%
MIN ML +134 +164 -4.8%
NYY -1.5 +105 +115 -2.3%
MIN +1.5 -126 -115 -2.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +0.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -14.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | September 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Keider Montero Home: Max Scherzer
ERA: 3.55 ERA: 6.38
WHIP: 1.03 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 6.0 K/9: 6.78
BB/9: 2.08 BB/9: 3.72
FIP: 3.96 FIP: 5.52
IP: 147.0 IP: 67.7
xERA: 3.56 xERA: 4.43
xwOBA: 0.292 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: DET (Keider Montero)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET TOR Lg Avg
Record 72-79 75-77
R/Game 4.52 4.04 4.49
RA/Game 3.99 4.31 4.49
OPS 0.717 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.300 0.310
ERA 3.64 3.94 4.18
FIP 3.86 3.90 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.13 8.80 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.557 0.470 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.30 3.52 4.25
BP FIP 4.41 3.95 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.28
BP K/9 8.20 8.29
BP Quality* 52.5 47.4 46.3
BP IP 468.7 311.7
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Kyle Finnegan (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Brant Hurter (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Michael Lorenzen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joe Mantiply (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Arrighetti (52 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9931 (Temp: 1.0024 | Wind: 0.9907)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 5.2 - TOR 4.0
Simulated Avg: DET 5.1 - TOR 4.1
Win Probability: DET 59.9% - TOR 40.1%
Fair Moneyline: DET -149 / TOR +149
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 8.5: 53.5%
Under 8.5: 46.5%
DET +1.5: 74.6%
TOR -1.5: 25.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 3.2 - TOR 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 3.1 - TOR 2.0
F5 Win Prob: DET 67.8% - TOR 32.1% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -211 / TOR +211
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +114 -149 +13.1%
TOR ML -137 +149 -17.7%
DET +1.5 -187 -294 +9.5%
TOR -1.5 +153 +294 -14.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +1.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Detroit Tigers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +114 | Edge: 13.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01179
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | September 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Blake Snell Home: Andrew Abbott
ERA: 1.91 ERA: 4.78
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 12.19 K/9: 7.0
BB/9: 3.82 BB/9: 4.08
FIP: 1.67 FIP: 4.93
IP: 37.7 IP: 154.3
xERA: 2.1 xERA: 5.0
xwOBA: 0.225 xwOBA: 0.341
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Blake Snell)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD CIN Lg Avg
Record 92-59 70-81
R/Game 4.96 4.14 4.49
RA/Game 3.79 5.15 4.49
OPS 0.758 0.701 0.719
wOBA 0.325 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.64 4.87 4.18
FIP 3.66 4.63 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.44 1.31
K/9 9.41 8.22 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.621 0.402 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.05 4.87 4.25
BP FIP 3.78 4.64 4.06
BP WHIP 1.29 1.47
BP K/9 9.81 8.72
BP Quality* 48.1 52.1 46.3
BP IP 469.0 561.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Stewart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0205 (Temp: 1.0303 | Wind: 0.9905)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 6.1 - CIN 3.3
Simulated Avg: LAD 6.1 - CIN 3.3
Win Probability: LAD 74.7% - CIN 25.3%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -295 / CIN +295
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.5: 55.5%
Under 8.5: 44.5%
LAD -1.5: 61.0%
CIN +1.5: 39.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 3.5 - CIN 1.3
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.5 - CIN 1.3
F5 Win Prob: LAD 83.3% - CIN 16.7% (Tie: 12.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -499 / CIN +499
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -219 -295 +6.1%
CIN ML +178 +295 -10.7%
LAD -1.5 -123 -156 +5.8%
CIN +1.5 +102 +156 -10.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +3.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -7.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | September 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brady Basso Home: Nick Martinez
ERA: 3.86 ERA: 2.92
WHIP: 1.39 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 6.75 K/9: 5.3
BB/9: 1.69 BB/9: 1.3
FIP: 3.21 FIP: 3.84
IP: 37.3 IP: 166.3
xERA: 3.72 xERA: 4.08
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Brady Basso)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH TB Lg Avg
Record 61-90 91-59
R/Game 4.35 4.56 4.49
RA/Game 5.70 4.09 4.49
OPS 0.720 0.735 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.314 0.310
ERA 5.40 3.76 4.18
FIP 4.74 3.93 4.04
WHIP 1.50 1.14 1.31
K/9 8.51 8.17 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.379 0.549 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.88 3.50 4.25
BP FIP 4.69 3.89 4.06
BP WHIP 1.61 1.12
BP K/9 8.98 8.73
BP Quality* 61.1 40.9 46.3
BP IP 566.0 424.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 3.6 - TB 4.7
Simulated Avg: ATH 3.6 - TB 4.7
Win Probability: ATH 39.6% - TB 60.4%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +153 / TB -153
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 45.5%
Under 8.0: 45.1%
ATH +1.5: 56.6%
TB -1.5: 43.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 2.0 - TB 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.0 - TB 2.1
F5 Win Prob: ATH 48.6% - TB 51.4% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +106 / TB -106
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +153 +153 +0.1%
TB ML -186 -153 -4.6%
ATH +1.5 -144 -130 -2.4%
TB -1.5 +120 +130 -2.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -6.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | September 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Logan Henderson Home: Jared Jones
ERA: 2.34 ERA: 4.1
WHIP: 0.78 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 10.09 K/9: 10.51
BB/9: 1.53 BB/9: 3.15
FIP: 3.13 FIP: 3.64
IP: 88.3 IP: 85.7
xERA: 2.61 xERA: 3.43
xwOBA: 0.251 xwOBA: 0.287
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Logan Henderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PIT Lg Avg
Record 94-57 75-76
R/Game 5.19 4.76 4.49
RA/Game 3.87 4.62 4.49
OPS 0.748 0.731 0.719
wOBA 0.321 0.317 0.310
ERA 3.56 4.18 4.18
FIP 3.58 3.68 4.04
WHIP 1.19 1.30 1.31
K/9 9.63 9.20 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.631 0.514 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 3.96 4.25
BP FIP 3.56 3.59 4.06
BP WHIP 1.26 1.34
BP K/9 8.99 9.49
BP Quality* 43.5 44.5 46.3
BP IP 518.7 482.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: DL Hall (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (31 pitches yesterday)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Antwone Kelly (44 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 11%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0115 (Temp: 1.0156 | Wind: 0.9960)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 4.6 - PIT 3.7
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.6 - PIT 3.7
Win Probability: MIL 58.9% - PIT 41.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -143 / PIT +143
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.5: 55.4%
Under 7.5: 44.6%
MIL -1.5: 42.0%
PIT +1.5: 58.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.5 - PIT 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.5 - PIT 1.7
F5 Win Prob: MIL 63.8% - PIT 36.2% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -176 / PIT +176
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -125 -143 +3.4%
PIT ML +104 +143 -7.9%
MIL -1.5 +135 +138 -0.5%
PIT +1.5 -163 -138 -4.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +3.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | September 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Zack Wheeler Home: Jared Simpson
ERA: 3.14 ERA: 6.75
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 0.75
K/9: 10.8 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 2.83 BB/9: 6.75
FIP: 3.46 FIP: 3.35
IP: 143.3 IP: 4.0
xERA: 3.02 xERA: 4.1
xwOBA: 0.27 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI WSH Lg Avg
Record 83-68 71-81
R/Game 4.49 5.12 4.49
RA/Game 4.30 5.08 4.49
OPS 0.711 0.751 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.321 0.310
ERA 4.01 4.72 4.18
FIP 3.67 4.55 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.39 1.31
K/9 9.85 7.95 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.519 0.504 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PHI WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.23 6.05 4.25
BP FIP 3.67 5.09 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.58
BP K/9 10.04 8.62
BP Quality* 43.8 60.4 46.3
BP IP 497.3 491.0
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Erik Tolman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9990 (Temp: 1.0139 | Wind: 0.9852)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 5.4 - WSH 4.3
Simulated Avg: PHI 5.4 - WSH 4.3
Win Probability: PHI 60.2% - WSH 39.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -151 / WSH +151
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 9.0: 49.3%
Under 9.0: 42.1%
PHI -1.5: 44.9%
WSH +1.5: 55.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 3.0 - WSH 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 3.0 - WSH 2.2
F5 Win Prob: PHI 62.1% - WSH 37.9% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -164 / WSH +164
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PHI ML -198 -151 -6.3%
WSH ML +162 +151 +1.6%
PHI -1.5 -115 +123 -8.6%
WSH +1.5 -105 -123 +3.9%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -3.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets
Regular Season | September 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Chris Bassitt Home: Robert Stock
ERA: 4.88 ERA: 5.93
WHIP: 1.59 WHIP: 1.75
K/9: 6.58 K/9: 8.6
BB/9: 3.59 BB/9: 4.45
FIP: 4.27 FIP: 3.53
IP: 90.3 IP: 30.3
xERA: 5.1 xERA: 5.07
xwOBA: 0.344 xwOBA: 0.343
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Robert Stock)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL NYM Lg Avg
Record 74-78 69-82
R/Game 4.48 4.30 4.49
RA/Game 4.69 4.54 4.49
OPS 0.709 0.704 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.16 4.16 4.18
FIP 4.01 3.91 4.04
WHIP 1.35 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.11 9.06 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.479 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BAL NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.05 4.33 4.25
BP FIP 3.68 4.16 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.34
BP K/9 8.80 9.33
BP Quality* 47.9 52.7 46.3
BP IP 509.3 318.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Rico Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Walker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jonathan Pintaro (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kodai Senga (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nate Lavender (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Austin Warren (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9890 (Temp: 0.9986 | Wind: 0.9904)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BAL 4.7 - NYM 4.6
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.7 - NYM 4.6
Win Probability: BAL 51.0% - NYM 49.0%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -104 / NYM +104
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.0: 45.8%
Under 9.0: 45.4%
BAL +1.5: 66.8%
NYM -1.5: 33.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BAL 2.6 - NYM 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.6 - NYM 2.6
F5 Win Prob: BAL 50.9% - NYM 49.1% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -104 / NYM +104
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BAL ML +112 -104 +3.9%
NYM ML -135 +104 -8.5%
BAL +1.5 -186 -201 +1.7%
NYM -1.5 +153 +201 -6.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | September 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: JR Ritchie Home: Shota Imanaga
ERA: 4.5 ERA: 3.88
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 8.22 K/9: 8.65
BB/9: 5.59 BB/9: 2.05
FIP: 5.15 FIP: 4.58
IP: 58.0 IP: 162.3
xERA: 5.1 xERA: 3.85
xwOBA: 0.344 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Shota Imanaga)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL CHC Lg Avg
Record 89-63 84-68
R/Game 4.62 5.32 4.49
RA/Game 3.86 4.41 4.49
OPS 0.722 0.768 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.331 0.310
ERA 3.61 4.19 4.18
FIP 3.96 4.58 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.27 1.31
K/9 8.44 7.82 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.581 0.585 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.43 4.57 4.25
BP FIP 3.51 4.65 4.06
BP WHIP 1.20 1.37
BP K/9 9.11 8.62
BP Quality* 41.1 53.1 46.3
BP IP 409.0 519.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (35 pitches yesterday)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Edward Cabrera (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Daniel Palencia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 23%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0306 (Temp: 0.9944 | Wind: 1.0365)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 5.1 - CHC 6.2
Simulated Avg: ATL 5.1 - CHC 6.2
Win Probability: ATL 41.0% - CHC 59.0%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +144 / CHC -144
Avg Total Runs: 11.3
Over 7.5: 75.8%
Under 7.5: 24.2%
ATL +1.5: 54.6%
CHC -1.5: 45.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.7 - CHC 3.8
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.7 - CHC 3.8
F5 Win Prob: ATL 35.4% - CHC 64.6% (Tie: 12.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +182 / CHC -182
F5 Avg Total: 6.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML +134 +144 -1.7%
CHC ML -162 -144 -2.9%
ATL +1.5 -171 -120 -8.5%
CHC -1.5 +141 +120 +3.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +23.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -28.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 23.4%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | September 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jake Bennett Home: MacKenzie Gore
ERA: 3.69 ERA: 4.62
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 7.11 K/9: 9.58
BB/9: 1.63 BB/9: 3.67
FIP: 3.55 FIP: 3.64
IP: 105.0 IP: 161.7
xERA: 3.51 xERA: 4.02
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS TEX Lg Avg
Record 82-69 75-76
R/Game 4.40 4.16 4.49
RA/Game 3.83 4.44 4.49
OPS 0.725 0.716 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.59 4.31 4.18
FIP 3.55 3.99 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.76 8.66 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.563 0.470 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.42 4.56 4.25
BP FIP 3.49 4.29 4.06
BP WHIP 1.26 1.40
BP K/9 9.43 8.48
BP Quality* 39.9 53.2 46.3
BP IP 415.3 521.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robert Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0177 (Temp: 1.0332 | Wind: 0.9850)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: BOS 4.8 - TEX 3.9
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.8 - TEX 3.9
Win Probability: BOS 58.5% - TEX 41.5%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -141 / TEX +141
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 49.5%
Under 8.0: 41.2%
BOS -1.5: 42.1%
TEX +1.5: 57.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 2.5 - TEX 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.5 - TEX 2.2
F5 Win Prob: BOS 56.2% - TEX 43.8% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -128 / TEX +128
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
BOS ML -112 -141 +5.7%
TEX ML -108 +141 -10.5%
BOS -1.5 +153 +138 +2.6%
TEX +1.5 -186 -138 -7.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | September 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Daniel Lynch IV Home: Cristian Javier
ERA: 3.52 ERA: 5.5
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 6.15 K/9: 8.89
BB/9: 2.76 BB/9: 3.72
FIP: 3.74 FIP: 4.46
IP: 71.7 IP: 55.7
xERA: 4.16 xERA: 4.71
xwOBA: 0.314 xwOBA: 0.332
Pitcher Edge: KC (Daniel Lynch IV)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC HOU Lg Avg
Record 66-85 76-75
R/Game 4.21 4.46 4.49
RA/Game 4.85 4.79 4.49
OPS 0.714 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.63 4.53 4.18
FIP 4.47 4.36 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.35 1.31
K/9 7.40 8.87 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.436 0.467 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat KC HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.78 4.17 4.25
BP FIP 5.21 4.27 4.06
BP WHIP 1.62 1.29
BP K/9 7.59 9.06
BP Quality* 59.1 46.3 46.3
BP IP 501.7 515.3
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 84°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (84°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0076 (Temp: 1.0183 | Wind: 0.9895)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.5 - HOU 4.9
Simulated Avg: KC 4.5 - HOU 4.9
Win Probability: KC 46.6% - HOU 53.4%
Fair Moneyline: KC +115 / HOU -115
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.0: 46.3%
Under 9.0: 44.9%
KC +1.5: 62.1%
HOU -1.5: 37.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.7 - HOU 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.7 - HOU 2.3
F5 Win Prob: KC 56.0% - HOU 44.0% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: KC -127 / HOU +127
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
KC ML +138 +115 +4.6%
HOU ML -167 -115 -9.1%
KC +1.5 -156 -164 +1.2%
HOU -1.5 +129 +164 -5.8%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.1%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | September 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Robbie Ray Home: Mason Adams
ERA: 3.57 ERA: 3.38
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 7.6 K/9: 10.61
BB/9: 4.66 BB/9: 4.34
FIP: 4.71 FIP: 5.67
IP: 156.3 IP: 18.7
xERA: 4.84 xERA: 4.97
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: 0.34
Pitcher Edge: SD (Robbie Ray)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD COL Lg Avg
Record 82-69 56-95
R/Game 4.30 4.72 4.49
RA/Game 4.19 5.80 4.49
OPS 0.709 0.743 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.319 0.310
ERA 3.96 5.57 4.18
FIP 4.05 4.73 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.53 1.31
K/9 8.22 7.02 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.512 0.406 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.77 5.02 4.25
BP FIP 2.96 4.39 4.06
BP WHIP 1.15 1.55
BP K/9 11.12 7.62
BP Quality* 38.6 53.7 46.3
BP IP 311.7 304.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Wandy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Randy Vásquez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Hart (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Ryan Feltner (61 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 21%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9810 (Temp: 0.9968 | Wind: 0.9842)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 5.4 - COL 5.3
Simulated Avg: SD 5.4 - COL 5.3
Win Probability: SD 51.3% - COL 48.7%
Fair Moneyline: SD -105 / COL +105
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 11.0: 40.7%
Under 11.0: 51.4%
SD -1.5: 37.3%
COL +1.5: 62.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 3.0 - COL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 3.0 - COL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: SD 47.4% - COL 52.6% (Tie: 13.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +111 / COL -111
F5 Avg Total: 6.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML -172 -105 -12.0%
COL ML +142 +105 +7.4%
SD -1.5 -114 +168 -16.0%
COL +1.5 -106 -168 +11.3%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -11.7%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -0.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -106 | Edge: 11.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01180
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | September 16, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: George Kirby Home: Yusei Kikuchi
ERA: 4.25 ERA: 4.75
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 7.51 K/9: 9.17
BB/9: 2.12 BB/9: 3.91
FIP: 3.79 FIP: 4.08
IP: 165.3 IP: 53.0
xERA: 4.13 xERA: 5.0
xwOBA: 0.313 xwOBA: 0.341
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA LAA Lg Avg
Record 70-82 58-93
R/Game 4.06 4.05 4.49
RA/Game 4.46 4.54 4.49
OPS 0.692 0.680 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.22 4.19 4.18
FIP 3.88 3.93 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.66 9.11 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.457 0.449 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.37 4.60 4.25
BP FIP 4.16 4.16 4.06
BP WHIP 1.37 1.41
BP K/9 8.58 9.11
BP Quality* 50.2 51.3 46.3
BP IP 498.3 399.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Seranthony Domínguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9835 (Temp: 0.9988 | Wind: 0.9847)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.3 - LAA 4.2
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.3 - LAA 4.2
Win Probability: SEA 51.2% - LAA 48.8%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -105 / LAA +105
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 46.8%
Under 8.0: 43.6%
SEA -1.5: 35.0%
LAA +1.5: 65.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.4 - LAA 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.4 - LAA 2.2
F5 Win Prob: SEA 54.5% - LAA 45.5% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -120 / LAA +120
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SEA ML -136 -105 -6.4%
LAA ML +113 +105 +1.9%
SEA -1.5 +123 +186 -9.9%
LAA +1.5 -149 -186 +5.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.7%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | September 16, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ryan Gusto Home: Merrill Kelly
ERA: 4.14 ERA: 4.97
WHIP: 1.4 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 7.47 K/9: 6.04
BB/9: 2.87 BB/9: 3.97
FIP: 3.89 FIP: 5.39
IP: 78.3 IP: 152.0
xERA: 4.84 xERA: 6.61
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: 0.384
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Ryan Gusto)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA ARI Lg Avg
Record 75-77 80-72
R/Game 4.45 4.44 4.49
RA/Game 4.41 4.43 4.49
OPS 0.728 0.712 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.10 4.09 4.18
FIP 3.98 4.16 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.28 1.31
K/9 8.27 7.07 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.505 0.501 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.51 3.44 4.25
BP FIP 3.94 3.43 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.19
BP K/9 8.82 7.94
BP Quality* 57.0 47.0 46.3
BP IP 513.0 487.3
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dax Fulton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Zuber (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Ralston (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Martinez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 5.4 - ARI 5.1
Simulated Avg: MIA 5.4 - ARI 5.1
Win Probability: MIA 52.5% - ARI 47.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIA -110 / ARI +110
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 9.0: 54.9%
Under 9.0: 36.8%
MIA +1.5: 66.7%
ARI -1.5: 33.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 3.4 - ARI 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 3.4 - ARI 2.6
F5 Win Prob: MIA 61.4% - ARI 38.6% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -159 / ARI +159
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +113 -110 +5.5%
ARI ML -136 +110 -10.1%
MIA +1.5 -187 -200 +1.5%
ARI -1.5 +153 +200 -6.2%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +2.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -15.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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