2026-09-17
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-17
Games: 9 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | September 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Harrison Home: Wilber Dotel
ERA: 3.98 ERA: 4.84
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 10.9 K/9: 9.17
BB/9: 2.68 BB/9: 3.57
FIP: 3.92 FIP: 2.99
IP: 110.7 IP: 35.3
xERA: 3.85 xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.299
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Wilber Dotel)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PIT Lg Avg
Record 95-57 75-77
R/Game 5.18 4.76 4.49
RA/Game 3.87 4.62 4.49
OPS 0.746 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.321 0.318 0.310
ERA 3.56 4.19 4.18
FIP 3.59 3.66 4.04
WHIP 1.19 1.30 1.31
K/9 9.65 9.22 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.631 0.513 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.43 3.94 4.25
BP FIP 3.57 3.58 4.06
BP WHIP 1.26 1.33
BP K/9 9.02 9.48
BP Quality* 42.0 45.9 46.2
BP IP 522.0 484.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (38 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, William Contreras, Cooper Pratt
Jake Bauers First Base OPS: 0.891 (449 AB)
Garrett Mitchell Outfielder OPS: 0.792 (428 AB)
William Contreras Catcher OPS: 0.759 (538 AB)
Cooper Pratt Shortstop OPS: 0.714 (202 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.4% of full strength
PIT (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Esmerlyn Valdez, Endy Rodríguez, Ryan O'Hearn, Spencer Horwitz
Esmerlyn Valdez Outfielder OPS: 0.855 (241 AB)
Endy Rodríguez Catcher OPS: 0.840 (135 AB)
Ryan O'Hearn First Base OPS: 0.784 (376 AB)
Spencer Horwitz First Base OPS: 0.709 (364 AB)
Run Adjustment: 89.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 79°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 16%
Conditions: Warm (79°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9861 (Temp: 1.0105 | Wind: 0.9759)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 4.1 - PIT 3.9
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.1 - PIT 3.9
Win Probability: MIL 52.0% - PIT 48.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -108 / PIT +108
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 8.5: 41.8%
Under 8.5: 58.2%
MIL -1.5: 34.8%
PIT +1.5: 65.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.2 - PIT 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.2 - PIT 2.1
F5 Win Prob: MIL 50.5% - PIT 49.5% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -102 / PIT +102
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -138 -108 -6.0%
PIT ML +114 +108 +1.3%
MIL -1.5 +119 +187 -10.8%
PIT +1.5 -143 -187 +6.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -10.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +5.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | September 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Justin Wrobleski Home: Brady Singer
ERA: 3.78 ERA: 5.38
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.51
K/9: 7.49 K/9: 7.47
BB/9: 2.09 BB/9: 3.35
FIP: 4.18 FIP: 5.14
IP: 133.3 IP: 150.7
xERA: 4.7 xERA: 5.41
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.353
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Justin Wrobleski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD CIN Lg Avg
Record 92-60 71-81
R/Game 4.94 4.15 4.49
RA/Game 3.80 5.12 4.49
OPS 0.757 0.703 0.719
wOBA 0.325 0.304 0.310
ERA 3.65 4.85 4.18
FIP 3.67 4.62 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.45 1.31
K/9 9.39 8.23 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.618 0.405 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.11 4.85 4.25
BP FIP 3.83 4.63 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.47
BP K/9 9.72 8.73
BP Quality* 47.2 56.5 46.2
BP IP 475.0 565.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Bobby Miller (47 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Alex Vesia (2 of last 3 days)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Graham Ashcraft (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Shohei Ohtani, Dalton Rushing, Andy Pages, Mookie Betts, Ryan Ward, Will Smith
Shohei Ohtani Designated Hitter OPS: 0.902 (502 AB)
Dalton Rushing Catcher OPS: 0.798 (221 AB)
Andy Pages Outfielder OPS: 0.796 (493 AB)
Mookie Betts Shortstop OPS: 0.746 (444 AB)
Ryan Ward Outfielder OPS: 0.738 (55 AB)
Will Smith Catcher OPS: 0.719 (212 AB)
Run Adjustment: 84.5% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Spencer Steer, JJ Bleday, Eugenio Suárez, Blake Dunn
Spencer Steer First Base OPS: 0.740 (340 AB)
JJ Bleday Outfielder OPS: 0.734 (436 AB)
Eugenio Suárez Designated Hitter OPS: 0.734 (409 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0362 (Temp: 1.0303 | Wind: 1.0057)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 5.7 - CIN 4.4
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.7 - CIN 4.4
Win Probability: LAD 60.8% - CIN 39.2%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -155 / CIN +155
Avg Total Runs: 10.1
Over 9.5: 52.2%
Under 9.5: 47.8%
LAD -1.5: 46.2%
CIN +1.5: 53.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 3.2 - CIN 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.2 - CIN 2.4
F5 Win Prob: LAD 61.4% - CIN 38.6% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -159 / CIN +159
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -164 -155 -1.3%
CIN ML +136 +155 -3.2%
LAD -1.5 -107 +116 -5.5%
CIN +1.5 -112 -116 +1.0%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -0.1%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -4.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | September 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jeffrey Springs Home: Drew Rasmussen
ERA: 5.93 ERA: 2.81
WHIP: 1.45 WHIP: 0.92
K/9: 7.0 K/9: 8.98
BB/9: 3.6 BB/9: 1.52
FIP: 5.92 FIP: 2.74
IP: 135.0 IP: 160.3
xERA: 4.86 xERA: 3.09
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.273
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH TB Lg Avg
Record 61-91 92-59
R/Game 4.34 4.56 4.49
RA/Game 5.69 4.09 4.49
OPS 0.720 0.735 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.314 0.310
ERA 5.39 3.75 4.18
FIP 4.72 3.93 4.04
WHIP 1.50 1.14 1.31
K/9 8.50 8.17 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.379 0.550 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.83 3.49 4.25
BP FIP 4.65 3.86 4.06
BP WHIP 1.60 1.11
BP K/9 8.99 8.76
BP Quality* 57.7 45.2 46.2
BP IP 571.3 428.7
Bullpen Edge: TB (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Kevin Kelly (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Carlos Cortes
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer Third Base OPS: 1.018 (60 AB)
Nick Kurtz First Base OPS: 0.879 (352 AB)
Shea Langeliers Catcher OPS: 0.824 (388 AB)
Tyler Soderstrom Outfielder OPS: 0.810 (396 AB)
Carlos Cortes Outfielder OPS: 0.708 (325 AB)
Run Adjustment: 83.0% of full strength
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.820 (206 AB)
Run Adjustment: 96.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 2.7 - TB 5.6
Simulated Avg: ATH 2.7 - TB 5.6
Win Probability: ATH 22.3% - TB 77.7%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +348 / TB -348
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.5: 55.1%
Under 7.5: 44.9%
ATH +1.5: 37.5%
TB -1.5: 62.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 1.3 - TB 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 1.3 - TB 3.2
F5 Win Prob: ATH 19.9% - TB 80.2% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +404 / TB -404
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +224 +348 -8.5%
TB ML -279 -348 +4.1%
ATH +1.5 -102 +167 -13.0%
TB -1.5 -119 -167 +8.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.5%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (Run Line) [-119]
Model: 62.5% | Market: 54.3% | Edge: 8.1%
Fair ML: -167 | Kelly: 4.46%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01181
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | September 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael King Home: Tanner Gordon
ERA: 3.03 ERA: 5.55
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.48
K/9: 7.61 K/9: 7.49
BB/9: 3.39 BB/9: 1.66
FIP: 4.03 FIP: 4.39
IP: 175.0 IP: 97.3
xERA: 4.42 xERA: 4.58
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: SD (Michael King)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD COL Lg Avg
Record 83-69 56-96
R/Game 4.34 4.70 4.49
RA/Game 4.18 5.82 4.49
OPS 0.711 0.742 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.319 0.310
ERA 3.96 5.59 4.18
FIP 4.05 4.73 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.53 1.31
K/9 8.23 7.02 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.516 0.404 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.75 5.07 4.25
BP FIP 2.96 4.39 4.06
BP WHIP 1.14 1.55
BP K/9 11.10 7.73
BP Quality* 34.0 55.3 46.2
BP IP 314.7 307.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Nick Frasso (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 86°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 17%
Conditions: Hot (86°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0090 (Temp: 1.0207 | Wind: 0.9886)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 5.7 - COL 4.8
Simulated Avg: SD 5.7 - COL 4.8
Win Probability: SD 58.1% - COL 41.9%
Fair Moneyline: SD -139 / COL +139
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 10.5: 47.0%
Under 10.5: 53.0%
SD -1.5: 44.0%
COL +1.5: 56.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 3.1 - COL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 3.1 - COL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: SD 53.9% - COL 46.1% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: SD -117 / COL +117
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML -196 -139 -8.1%
COL ML +161 +139 +3.6%
SD -1.5 -124 +127 -11.4%
COL +1.5 +103 -127 +6.8%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -5.4%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +0.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | September 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Seth Lugo Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC HOU Lg Avg
Record 67-85 76-76
R/Game 4.22 4.44 4.49
RA/Game 4.83 4.80 4.49
OPS 0.714 0.722 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.61 4.53 4.18
FIP 4.46 4.38 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.35 1.31
K/9 7.40 8.85 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.438 0.465 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.77 4.19 4.25
BP FIP 5.21 4.29 4.06
BP WHIP 1.62 1.29
BP K/9 7.60 9.07
BP Quality* 59.0 46.5 46.2
BP IP 505.7 518.0
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0058 (Temp: 1.0157 | Wind: 0.9902)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 4.2 - HOU 5.4
Simulated Avg: KC 4.2 - HOU 5.4
Win Probability: KC 38.5% - HOU 61.5%
Fair Moneyline: KC +160 / HOU -160
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 9.0: 47.2%
Under 9.0: 43.9%
KC +1.5: 54.1%
HOU -1.5: 45.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.3 - HOU 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.3 - HOU 2.8
F5 Win Prob: KC 43.1% - HOU 56.9% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +132 / HOU -132
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +128 +160 -5.4%
HOU ML -155 -160 +0.7%
KC +1.5 -163 -118 -7.9%
HOU -1.5 +135 +118 +3.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -5.2%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -8.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Regular Season | September 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Aaron Nola Home: Nolan McLean
ERA: 4.69 ERA: 3.24
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 9.2 K/9: 9.94
BB/9: 3.07 BB/9: 3.56
FIP: 4.82 FIP: 3.41
IP: 161.3 IP: 166.7
xERA: 4.07 xERA: 3.71
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI NYM Lg Avg
Record 84-68 69-83
R/Game 4.48 4.28 4.49
RA/Game 4.28 4.56 4.49
OPS 0.711 0.702 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.99 4.18 4.18
FIP 3.66 3.93 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.30 1.31
K/9 9.84 9.08 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.521 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.22 4.40 4.25
BP FIP 3.66 4.24 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.34
BP K/9 10.06 9.38
BP Quality* 43.7 53.2 46.2
BP IP 499.3 327.3
Bullpen Edge: PHI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYM: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jack Weisenburger (52 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jefry Yan (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jonathan Pintaro (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kodai Senga (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 14%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9937 (Temp: 1.0042 | Wind: 0.9895)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.1 - NYM 4.3
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.1 - NYM 4.3
Win Probability: PHI 47.6% - NYM 52.4%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +110 / NYM -110
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 45.7%
Under 8.0: 44.7%
PHI +1.5: 64.4%
NYM -1.5: 35.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.0 - NYM 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.0 - NYM 2.5
F5 Win Prob: PHI 40.7% - NYM 59.3% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +146 / NYM -146
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML +109 +110 -0.3%
NYM ML -132 -110 -4.5%
PHI +1.5 -192 -181 -1.3%
NYM -1.5 +157 +181 -3.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -6.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | September 17, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Framber Valdez Home: Erick Fedde
ERA: 4.01 ERA: 3.97
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 6.65 K/9: 6.13
BB/9: 3.3 BB/9: 3.23
FIP: 3.91 FIP: 5.05
IP: 163.7 IP: 133.7
xERA: 4.42 xERA: 4.67
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: DET (Framber Valdez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET CWS Lg Avg
Record 72-80 77-75
R/Game 4.49 4.68 4.49
RA/Game 3.99 4.45 4.49
OPS 0.716 0.722 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.311 0.310
ERA 3.64 4.12 4.18
FIP 3.85 4.09 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.10 8.31 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.554 0.522 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.27 4.16 4.25
BP FIP 4.41 4.35 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.36
BP K/9 8.15 8.17
BP Quality* 52.4 49.1 46.2
BP IP 471.7 314.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Holton (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kyle Finnegan (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Hagen Smith (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9773 (Temp: 0.9941 | Wind: 0.9831)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 4.7 - CWS 4.9
Simulated Avg: DET 4.7 - CWS 4.9
Win Probability: DET 48.1% - CWS 51.9%
Fair Moneyline: DET +108 / CWS -108
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 56.5%
Under 8.5: 43.5%
DET -1.5: 33.4%
CWS +1.5: 66.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.7 - CWS 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.7 - CWS 2.5
F5 Win Prob: DET 52.8% - CWS 47.2% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -112 / CWS +112
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML -103 +108 -2.7%
CWS ML -117 -108 -2.0%
DET -1.5 +163 +199 -4.6%
CWS +1.5 -200 -199 -0.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | September 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sonny Gray Home: Tyler Alexander
ERA: 2.76 ERA: 3.38
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.28
K/9: 8.04 K/9: 7.7
BB/9: 2.41 BB/9: 2.57
FIP: 3.36 FIP: 2.83
IP: 156.7 IP: 66.7
xERA: 3.82 xERA: 3.14
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Tyler Alexander)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS TEX Lg Avg
Record 82-70 76-76
R/Game 4.39 4.18 4.49
RA/Game 3.86 4.43 4.49
OPS 0.723 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.61 4.30 4.18
FIP 3.54 4.00 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.77 8.62 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.560 0.473 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat BOS TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.46 4.55 4.25
BP FIP 3.49 4.28 4.06
BP WHIP 1.26 1.40
BP K/9 9.39 8.50
BP Quality* 40.1 50.1 46.2
BP IP 418.7 522.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Nathan Eovaldi (46 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0182 (Temp: 1.0327 | Wind: 0.9860)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 4.1 - TEX 3.8
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.1 - TEX 3.8
Win Probability: BOS 52.5% - TEX 47.5%
Fair Moneyline: BOS -111 / TEX +111
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 7.5: 50.8%
Under 7.5: 49.2%
BOS -1.5: 35.4%
TEX +1.5: 64.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: BOS 1.9 - TEX 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.9 - TEX 2.0
F5 Win Prob: BOS 48.0% - TEX 52.0% (Tie: 19.1%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +108 / TEX -108
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML -126 -111 -3.2%
TEX ML +105 +111 -1.3%
BOS -1.5 +130 +182 -8.0%
TEX +1.5 -157 -182 +3.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -1.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -3.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | September 17, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Taj Bradley Home: Walbert Ureña
ERA: 3.81 ERA: 2.88
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 10.34 K/9: 8.58
BB/9: 3.92 BB/9: 4.39
FIP: 3.92 FIP: 3.51
IP: 165.3 IP: 137.3
xERA: 3.98 xERA: 3.4
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.286
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Walbert Ureña)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN LAA Lg Avg
Record 71-81 58-94
R/Game 4.55 4.04 4.49
RA/Game 5.03 4.55 4.49
OPS 0.720 0.680 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.67 4.21 4.18
FIP 4.15 3.93 4.04
WHIP 1.38 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.55 9.11 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.454 0.446 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.59 4.59 4.25
BP FIP 3.99 4.14 4.06
BP WHIP 1.43 1.41
BP K/9 9.03 9.10
BP Quality* 58.2 51.1 46.2
BP IP 555.0 403.7
Bullpen Edge: LAA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Travis Adams (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Sammy Peralta (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9904 (Temp: 0.9999 | Wind: 0.9906)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 4.1 - LAA 4.4
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.1 - LAA 4.4
Win Probability: MIN 47.0% - LAA 53.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +113 / LAA -113
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 56.6%
Under 7.5: 43.4%
MIN -1.5: 30.9%
LAA +1.5: 69.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.0 - LAA 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.0 - LAA 2.1
F5 Win Prob: MIN 47.6% - LAA 52.4% (Tie: 18.6%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +110 / LAA -110
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML -112 +113 -5.8%
LAA ML -108 -113 +1.1%
MIN -1.5 +150 +223 -9.1%
LAA +1.5 -182 -223 +4.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +4.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -9.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================