2026-09-18
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-18
Games: 15 | Plays: 2
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | September 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Clay Holmes Home: Chase Burns
ERA: 2.85 ERA: 2.8
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 6.97 K/9: 10.76
BB/9: 3.34 BB/9: 3.21
FIP: 3.51 FIP: 3.15
IP: 91.7 IP: 151.3
xERA: 3.96 xERA: 3.18
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.277
Pitcher Edge: CIN (Chase Burns)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC CIN Lg Avg
Record 85-68 71-82
R/Game 5.34 4.14 4.49
RA/Game 4.41 5.14 4.49
OPS 0.771 0.703 0.719
wOBA 0.332 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.19 4.87 4.18
FIP 4.56 4.64 4.04
WHIP 1.27 1.45 1.31
K/9 7.83 8.20 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.587 0.402 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.59 4.82 4.24
BP FIP 4.65 4.62 4.06
BP WHIP 1.38 1.46
BP K/9 8.61 8.71
BP Quality* 50.3 57.8 46.2
BP IP 521.3 569.3
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Julian Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Graham Ashcraft (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0500 (Temp: 1.0135 | Wind: 1.0360)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 5.6 - CIN 4.5
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.6 - CIN 4.5
Win Probability: CHC 60.2% - CIN 39.9%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -151 / CIN +151
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 8.5: 59.9%
Under 8.5: 40.1%
CHC -1.5: 45.3%
CIN +1.5: 54.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 2.4 - CIN 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.4 - CIN 2.2
F5 Win Prob: CHC 53.5% - CIN 46.5% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -115 / CIN +115
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -135 -151 +2.7%
CIN ML +112 +151 -7.3%
CHC -1.5 +123 +121 +0.5%
CIN +1.5 -149 -121 -5.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +7.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -12.2%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.5%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.93%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01182
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | September 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Randy Dobnak Home: Paul Skenes
ERA: 2.73 ERA: 3.78
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 6.1 K/9: 10.28
BB/9: 2.99 BB/9: 2.56
FIP: 3.86 FIP: 3.03
IP: 69.3 IP: 162.0
xERA: 4.48 xERA: 3.25
xwOBA: 0.325 xwOBA: 0.28
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC PIT Lg Avg
Record 67-86 76-77
R/Game 4.20 4.77 4.49
RA/Game 4.84 4.61 4.49
OPS 0.711 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.318 0.310
ERA 4.63 4.19 4.18
FIP 4.50 3.67 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.30 1.31
K/9 7.40 9.22 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.436 0.515 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.77 3.95 4.24
BP FIP 5.22 3.59 4.06
BP WHIP 1.62 1.34
BP K/9 7.59 9.46
BP Quality* 60.6 49.0 46.2
BP IP 508.7 491.7
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jose Cuas (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Khristian Curtis (61 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0031 (Temp: 1.0000 | Wind: 1.0031)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 3.6 - PIT 5.1
Simulated Avg: KC 3.6 - PIT 5.1
Win Probability: KC 35.5% - PIT 64.5%
Fair Moneyline: KC +182 / PIT -182
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 49.2%
Under 8.0: 41.3%
KC +1.5: 52.2%
PIT -1.5: 47.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 1.8 - PIT 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.8 - PIT 2.4
F5 Win Prob: KC 39.4% - PIT 60.6% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +154 / PIT -154
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML +158 +182 -3.3%
PIT ML -193 -182 -1.4%
KC +1.5 -136 -109 -5.5%
PIT -1.5 +113 +109 +0.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | September 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dustin May Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL BAL Lg Avg
Record 95-58 75-78
R/Game 5.18 4.50 4.49
RA/Game 3.89 4.67 4.49
OPS 0.747 0.711 0.719
wOBA 0.321 0.307 0.310
ERA 3.58 4.14 4.18
FIP 3.59 4.00 4.04
WHIP 1.19 1.35 1.31
K/9 9.67 8.11 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.628 0.483 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.43 4.03 4.24
BP FIP 3.57 3.67 4.06
BP WHIP 1.26 1.30
BP K/9 9.05 8.79
BP Quality* 46.5 46.3 46.2
BP IP 527.0 511.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Garrett Stallings (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Walker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0493 (Temp: 1.0091 | Wind: 1.0398)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 5.4 - BAL 4.7
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.4 - BAL 4.7
Win Probability: MIL 56.0% - BAL 44.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -127 / BAL +127
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 8.5: 61.2%
Under 8.5: 38.8%
MIL -1.5: 41.3%
BAL +1.5: 58.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 3.0 - BAL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.0 - BAL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIL 57.9% - BAL 42.1% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -138 / BAL +138
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -144 -127 -3.0%
BAL ML +119 +127 -1.7%
MIL -1.5 +113 +142 -5.7%
BAL +1.5 -136 -142 +1.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +8.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -13.6%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.2% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.8%
Fair ML: -158 | Kelly: 4.63%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01183
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | September 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Mason Barnett Home: Daniel Espino
ERA: 7.08 ERA: 2.92
WHIP: 1.62 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 8.41 K/9: 15.32
BB/9: 5.31 BB/9: 2.92
FIP: 6.83 FIP: 2.77
IP: 40.7 IP: 12.3
xERA: 5.3 xERA: 2.77
xwOBA: 0.35 xwOBA: 0.259
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Daniel Espino)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH CLE Lg Avg
Record 61-92 78-75
R/Game 4.32 4.12 4.49
RA/Game 5.72 4.17 4.49
OPS 0.719 0.689 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.299 0.310
ERA 5.41 3.80 4.18
FIP 4.72 3.68 4.04
WHIP 1.50 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.51 9.61 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.374 0.495 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.77 3.61 4.24
BP FIP 4.64 3.46 4.06
BP WHIP 1.61 1.27
BP K/9 9.04 10.08
BP Quality* 60.5 44.9 46.2
BP IP 586.3 526.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Drew Rom (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yunior Tur (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0186 (Temp: 0.9938 | Wind: 1.0249)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 3.7 - CLE 6.0
Simulated Avg: ATH 3.7 - CLE 5.9
Win Probability: ATH 29.9% - CLE 70.0%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +234 / CLE -234
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.5: 57.0%
Under 8.5: 43.0%
ATH +1.5: 44.8%
CLE -1.5: 55.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 1.9 - CLE 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 1.9 - CLE 3.5
F5 Win Prob: ATH 27.7% - CLE 72.3% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +261 / CLE -261
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +186 +234 -5.0%
CLE ML -230 -234 +0.4%
ATH +1.5 -114 +123 -8.5%
CLE -1.5 -105 -123 +4.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | September 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Ranger Suarez Home: Ian Seymour
ERA: 3.33 ERA: 4.27
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 8.5 K/9: 11.04
BB/9: 2.62 BB/9: 2.5
FIP: 2.93 FIP: 3.93
IP: 137.7 IP: 122.3
xERA: 3.69 xERA: 3.48
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.289
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TB Lg Avg
Record 83-70 93-59
R/Game 4.39 4.59 4.49
RA/Game 3.85 4.07 4.49
OPS 0.722 0.735 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.314 0.310
ERA 3.61 3.73 4.18
FIP 3.54 3.93 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.14 1.31
K/9 8.76 8.17 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.560 0.555 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.44 3.47 4.24
BP FIP 3.49 3.85 4.06
BP WHIP 1.26 1.11
BP K/9 9.36 8.78
BP Quality* 43.0 43.6 46.2
BP IP 421.3 430.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Alec Gamboa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Wyatt Olds (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 3.9 - TB 3.8
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.8 - TB 3.8
Win Probability: BOS 50.0% - TB 50.0%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +100 / TB -100
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.0: 48.6%
Under 7.0: 41.3%
BOS +1.5: 68.0%
TB -1.5: 32.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.1 - TB 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.1 - TB 1.9
F5 Win Prob: BOS 53.7% - TB 46.3% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS -116 / TB +116
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML +113 +100 +3.0%
TB ML -136 -100 -7.6%
BOS +1.5 -194 -212 +2.0%
TB -1.5 +159 +212 -6.6%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -3.7%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -11.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Regular Season | September 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Painter Home: Zac Thornton
ERA: 5.54 ERA: 3.44
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 7.8 K/9: 6.75
BB/9: 3.36 BB/9: 1.96
FIP: 4.63 FIP: 4.38
IP: 115.3 IP: 73.3
xERA: 4.55 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI NYM Lg Avg
Record 85-68 69-84
R/Game 4.47 4.25 4.49
RA/Game 4.25 4.55 4.49
OPS 0.710 0.701 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.302 0.310
ERA 3.96 4.16 4.18
FIP 3.65 3.93 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.30 1.31
K/9 9.83 9.05 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.523 0.469 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.20 4.39 4.24
BP FIP 3.65 4.23 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.33
BP K/9 10.10 9.37
BP Quality* 46.5 50.1 46.2
BP IP 501.0 328.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jonathan Bowlan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tobias Myers (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Austin Warren (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0062 (Temp: 1.0023 | Wind: 1.0040)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PHI 4.5 - NYM 4.6
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.5 - NYM 4.6
Win Probability: PHI 48.1% - NYM 51.9%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +108 / NYM -108
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 52.5%
Under 8.5: 47.5%
PHI -1.5: 32.7%
NYM +1.5: 67.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PHI 2.4 - NYM 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.4 - NYM 2.7
F5 Win Prob: PHI 45.6% - NYM 54.4% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +119 / NYM -119
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -108 +108 -3.8%
NYM ML -112 -108 -0.9%
PHI -1.5 +156 +206 -6.4%
NYM +1.5 -189 -206 +1.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | September 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Sears Home: David Sandlin
ERA: 5.4 ERA: 5.64
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 7.02 K/9: 8.6
BB/9: 2.16 BB/9: 3.56
FIP: 3.82 FIP: 4.95
IP: 16.7 IP: 30.3
xERA: 3.09 xERA: 3.74
xwOBA: 0.273 xwOBA: 0.299
Pitcher Edge: DET (Andrew Sears)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET CWS Lg Avg
Record 72-81 78-75
R/Game 4.47 4.67 4.49
RA/Game 3.99 4.43 4.49
OPS 0.715 0.721 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.311 0.310
ERA 3.64 4.10 4.18
FIP 3.85 4.08 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.13 8.32 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.552 0.524 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat DET CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.25 4.17 4.24
BP FIP 4.39 4.36 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.34
BP K/9 8.15 8.13
BP Quality* 49.2 53.5 46.2
BP IP 474.7 304.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jacob Waguespack (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Jordan Hicks (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), crosswind (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9961 (Temp: 0.9945 | Wind: 1.0016)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 5.0 - CWS 5.0
Simulated Avg: DET 5.0 - CWS 5.0
Win Probability: DET 49.4% - CWS 50.6%
Fair Moneyline: DET +102 / CWS -102
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.5: 59.1%
Under 8.5: 40.9%
DET +1.5: 64.8%
CWS -1.5: 35.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.8 - CWS 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.8 - CWS 2.7
F5 Win Prob: DET 50.9% - CWS 49.1% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -104 / CWS +104
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +109 +102 +1.6%
CWS ML -132 -102 -6.3%
DET +1.5 -192 -184 -1.0%
CWS -1.5 +157 +184 -3.7%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +6.8%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -11.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | September 18, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dylan Cease Home: Kumar Rocker
ERA: 2.38 ERA: 4.54
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 12.77 K/9: 8.57
BB/9: 3.9 BB/9: 3.7
FIP: 2.42 FIP: 4.3
IP: 166.3 IP: 138.7
xERA: 2.79 xERA: 4.61
xwOBA: 0.26 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Dylan Cease)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR TEX Lg Avg
Record 76-77 76-77
R/Game 4.05 4.17 4.49
RA/Game 4.29 4.42 4.49
OPS 0.696 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.300 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.92 4.30 4.18
FIP 3.90 4.01 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.78 8.60 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.473 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.51 4.59 4.24
BP FIP 3.93 4.30 4.06
BP WHIP 1.28 1.40
BP K/9 8.32 8.49
BP Quality* 42.7 54.9 46.2
BP IP 312.7 525.7
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cody Bradford (73 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0124 (Temp: 1.0291 | Wind: 0.9838)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 4.8 - TEX 3.4
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.8 - TEX 3.4
Win Probability: TOR 64.4% - TEX 35.6%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -181 / TEX +181
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 7.5: 53.2%
Under 7.5: 46.8%
TOR -1.5: 47.6%
TEX +1.5: 52.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.5 - TEX 1.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.6 - TEX 1.5
F5 Win Prob: TOR 68.9% - TEX 31.1% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -222 / TEX +222
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML -137 -181 +6.6%
TEX ML +114 +181 -11.1%
TOR -1.5 +127 +110 +3.5%
TEX +1.5 -154 -110 -8.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -5.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | September 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryan Woo Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA COL Lg Avg
Record 71-82 56-97
R/Game 4.08 4.69 4.49
RA/Game 4.44 5.84 4.49
OPS 0.692 0.741 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.319 0.310
ERA 4.21 5.62 4.18
FIP 3.87 4.72 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.54 1.31
K/9 8.68 7.03 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.461 0.400 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 5.02 4.24
BP FIP 4.12 4.36 4.06
BP WHIP 1.36 1.53
BP K/9 8.61 7.77
BP Quality* 46.8 53.4 46.2
BP IP 503.0 310.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Zach Agnos (57 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 38%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9809 (Temp: 0.9978 | Wind: 0.9831)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 4.8 - COL 4.9
Simulated Avg: SEA 4.8 - COL 4.9
Win Probability: SEA 48.7% - COL 51.3%
Fair Moneyline: SEA +105 / COL -105
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 10.5: 40.2%
Under 10.5: 59.8%
SEA -1.5: 33.7%
COL +1.5: 66.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 2.5 - COL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 2.5 - COL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SEA 50.4% - COL 49.6% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -101 / COL +101
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -193 +105 -17.2%
COL ML +159 -105 +12.7%
SEA -1.5 -122 +197 -21.2%
COL +1.5 +102 -197 +16.8%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -12.2%
U 10.5 -110 N/A +7.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: +102 | Edge: 16.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01184
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | September 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tyler Mahle Home: Peter Lambert
ERA: 3.91 ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 8.28 K/9: 8.71
BB/9: 2.8 BB/9: 3.46
FIP: 3.89 FIP: 3.57
IP: 138.0 IP: 145.7
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 3.69
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Peter Lambert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL HOU Lg Avg
Record 89-64 77-76
R/Game 4.61 4.45 4.49
RA/Game 3.89 4.78 4.49
OPS 0.721 0.725 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.64 4.51 4.18
FIP 3.98 4.37 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.44 8.83 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.578 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.45 4.18 4.24
BP FIP 3.53 4.29 4.06
BP WHIP 1.20 1.29
BP K/9 9.09 9.05
BP Quality* 39.8 52.5 46.2
BP IP 411.7 521.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Ethan Pecko (71 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hader (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9995 (Temp: 1.0115 | Wind: 0.9881)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.4 - HOU 4.1
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.4 - HOU 4.1
Win Probability: ATL 52.9% - HOU 47.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -112 / HOU +112
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.0: 47.4%
Under 8.0: 43.3%
ATL -1.5: 36.4%
HOU +1.5: 63.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.2 - HOU 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.2 - HOU 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ATL 47.2% - HOU 52.8% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +112 / HOU -112
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -120 -112 -1.6%
HOU ML +100 +112 -2.9%
ATL -1.5 +137 +175 -5.8%
HOU +1.5 -166 -175 +1.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | September 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cade Cavalli Home: Kyle Leahy
ERA: 3.12 ERA: 3.33
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 10.6 K/9: 8.53
BB/9: 2.62 BB/9: 2.53
FIP: 3.04 FIP: 3.4
IP: 164.7 IP: 135.0
xERA: 3.71 xERA: 4.77
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.334
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Cade Cavalli)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH STL Lg Avg
Record 71-82 75-78
R/Game 5.08 4.53 4.49
RA/Game 5.07 4.62 4.49
OPS 0.749 0.698 0.719
wOBA 0.321 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.71 4.28 4.18
FIP 4.56 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.36 1.31
K/9 7.94 8.02 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.502 0.491 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.98 4.59 4.24
BP FIP 5.11 4.08 4.06
BP WHIP 1.59 1.39
BP K/9 8.58 8.33
BP Quality* 61.8 48.0 46.2
BP IP 499.3 543.3
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Richard Lovelady (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yovanny Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0194 (Temp: 1.0256 | Wind: 0.9939)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 4.9 - STL 4.7
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.9 - STL 4.7
Win Probability: WSH 51.2% - STL 48.8%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -105 / STL +105
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 7.5: 65.4%
Under 7.5: 34.6%
WSH -1.5: 36.2%
STL +1.5: 63.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 2.6 - STL 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.6 - STL 2.0
F5 Win Prob: WSH 59.8% - STL 40.2% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -149 / STL +149
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML -111 -105 -1.4%
STL ML -108 +105 -3.1%
WSH -1.5 +149 +176 -4.0%
STL +1.5 -182 -176 -0.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +13.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -17.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01185
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | September 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Connor Prielipp Home: Grayson Rodriguez
ERA: 5.24 ERA: 6.1
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.56
K/9: 9.29 K/9: 8.17
BB/9: 3.18 BB/9: 3.93
FIP: 3.7 FIP: 4.69
IP: 113.3 IP: 87.0
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 5.52
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.356
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Connor Prielipp)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN LAA Lg Avg
Record 71-82 59-94
R/Game 4.55 4.05 4.49
RA/Game 5.03 4.55 4.49
OPS 0.720 0.679 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.67 4.20 4.18
FIP 4.13 3.91 4.04
WHIP 1.38 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.59 9.14 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.454 0.447 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.59 4.63 4.24
BP FIP 3.99 4.15 4.06
BP WHIP 1.44 1.42
BP K/9 9.06 9.16
BP Quality* 56.7 49.9 46.2
BP IP 556.3 406.7
Bullpen Edge: LAA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Yoendrys Gómez (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9849 (Temp: 1.0003 | Wind: 0.9847)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 5.3 - LAA 4.5
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.3 - LAA 4.5
Win Probability: MIN 57.1% - LAA 42.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -133 / LAA +133
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.0: 58.5%
Under 8.0: 33.2%
MIN -1.5: 42.2%
LAA +1.5: 57.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 3.2 - LAA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 3.2 - LAA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIN 63.1% - LAA 36.9% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -171 / LAA +171
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML -115 -133 +3.7%
LAA ML -105 +133 -8.4%
MIN -1.5 +144 +137 +1.2%
LAA +1.5 -175 -137 -5.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +6.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -19.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | September 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tyler Phillips Home: Nick Pivetta
ERA: 3.55 ERA: 3.6
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.0
K/9: 7.26 K/9: 11.16
BB/9: 3.86 BB/9: 2.16
FIP: 4.63 FIP: 1.86
IP: 119.0 IP: 25.0
xERA: 4.7 xERA: 2.86
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.263
Pitcher Edge: SD (Nick Pivetta)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA SD Lg Avg
Record 76-77 84-69
R/Game 4.45 4.37 4.49
RA/Game 4.40 4.17 4.49
OPS 0.728 0.715 0.719
wOBA 0.315 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.10 3.94 4.18
FIP 3.99 4.04 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.29 1.31
K/9 8.27 8.23 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.505 0.521 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.49 2.74 4.24
BP FIP 3.94 2.95 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.14
BP K/9 8.85 11.12
BP Quality* 48.0 35.4 46.2
BP IP 516.7 315.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0074 (Temp: 0.9977 | Wind: 1.0097)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 3.6 - SD 4.5
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.6 - SD 4.5
Win Probability: MIA 40.1% - SD 59.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +149 / SD -149
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 52.8%
Under 7.5: 47.2%
MIA +1.5: 57.9%
SD -1.5: 42.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.1 - SD 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.2 - SD 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIA 44.2% - SD 55.8% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +126 / SD -126
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +179 +149 +4.3%
SD ML -219 -149 -8.8%
MIA +1.5 -126 -138 +2.2%
SD -1.5 +105 +138 -6.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -5.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | September 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gerrit Cole Home: Eduardo Rodriguez
ERA: 3.67 ERA: 2.62
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 9.13 K/9: 6.81
BB/9: 1.72 BB/9: 2.93
FIP: 3.9 FIP: 3.73
IP: 115.3 IP: 178.3
xERA: 3.85 xERA: 4.24
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.317
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY ARI Lg Avg
Record 88-64 80-73
R/Game 4.59 4.43 4.49
RA/Game 3.69 4.43 4.49
OPS 0.721 0.713 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.19 4.09 4.18
FIP 3.59 4.16 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.28 1.31
K/9 9.01 7.09 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.598 0.500 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.11 3.41 4.24
BP FIP 3.98 3.42 4.06
BP WHIP 1.20 1.18
BP K/9 8.09 7.91
BP Quality* 41.0 39.3 46.2
BP IP 541.0 490.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 94°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (94°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0369 (Temp: 1.0333 | Wind: 1.0035)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.0 - ARI 4.3
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.0 - ARI 4.3
Win Probability: NYY 47.1% - ARI 52.9%
Fair Moneyline: NYY +112 / ARI -112
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 45.2%
Under 8.0: 45.2%
NYY -1.5: 30.8%
ARI +1.5: 69.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.3 - ARI 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.3 - ARI 2.4
F5 Win Prob: NYY 48.4% - ARI 51.6% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY +107 / ARI -107
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -119 +112 -7.2%
ARI ML -102 -112 +2.4%
NYY -1.5 +141 +225 -10.7%
ARI +1.5 -171 -225 +6.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | September 18, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cesar Perdomo Home: Tyler Glasnow
ERA: 3.68 ERA: 3.5
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 0.97
K/9: 6.75 K/9: 11.24
BB/9: 2.45 BB/9: 3.06
FIP: 4.19 FIP: 2.89
IP: 14.7 IP: 61.7
xERA: 4.36 xERA: 3.11
xwOBA: 0.321 xwOBA: 0.274
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tyler Glasnow)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF LAD Lg Avg
Record 64-89 93-60
R/Game 4.24 4.96 4.49
RA/Game 4.70 3.79 4.49
OPS 0.718 0.759 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.325 0.310
ERA 4.34 3.64 4.18
FIP 4.06 3.66 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.16 1.31
K/9 7.61 9.38 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.453 0.621 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SF LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.65 4.10 4.24
BP FIP 4.44 3.83 4.06
BP WHIP 1.50 1.30
BP K/9 6.83 9.69
BP Quality* 52.6 48.6 46.2
BP IP 480.0 481.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Seth Halvorsen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blake Treinen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Landon Knack (61 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9895 (Temp: 0.9946 | Wind: 0.9949)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SF 3.5 - LAD 5.1
Simulated Avg: SF 3.5 - LAD 5.1
Win Probability: SF 34.4% - LAD 65.6%
Fair Moneyline: SF +191 / LAD -191
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.0: 47.6%
Under 8.0: 43.1%
SF +1.5: 51.2%
LAD -1.5: 48.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SF 1.7 - LAD 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.7 - LAD 2.6
F5 Win Prob: SF 33.2% - LAD 66.8% (Tie: 17.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +201 / LAD -201
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SF ML +248 +191 +5.7%
LAD ML -313 -191 -10.2%
SF +1.5 +113 -105 +4.3%
LAD -1.5 -137 +105 -9.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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