2026-09-19
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-19
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | September 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jackson Jobe Home: Sean Burke
ERA: 3.89 ERA: 3.47
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 8.83 K/9: 9.67
BB/9: 3.38 BB/9: 3.24
FIP: 4.51 FIP: 3.49
IP: 34.7 IP: 161.0
xERA: 4.46 xERA: 3.82
xwOBA: 0.324 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Burke)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET CWS Lg Avg
Record 73-81 78-76
R/Game 4.51 4.69 4.49
RA/Game 4.01 4.47 4.49
OPS 0.718 0.721 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.311 0.310
ERA 3.63 4.15 4.18
FIP 3.85 4.09 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.14 8.33 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.554 0.521 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.17 4.01 4.24
BP FIP 4.38 4.36 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.32
BP K/9 8.24 8.37
BP Quality* 51.8 54.3 46.1
BP IP 466.3 278.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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DET: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Beau Brieske (49 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Sommers (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Jordan Hicks (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sean Newcomb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hagen Smith (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 14%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0021 (Temp: 0.9984 | Wind: 1.0036)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: DET 4.4 - CWS 5.1
Simulated Avg: DET 4.4 - CWS 5.1
Win Probability: DET 43.0% - CWS 57.0%
Fair Moneyline: DET +132 / CWS -132
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.0: 55.9%
Under 8.0: 35.2%
DET +1.5: 58.6%
CWS -1.5: 41.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: DET 2.1 - CWS 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.1 - CWS 2.7
F5 Win Prob: DET 40.5% - CWS 59.5% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: DET +147 / CWS -147
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
DET ML +108 +132 -5.1%
CWS ML -130 -132 +0.5%
DET +1.5 -198 -141 -7.9%
CWS -1.5 +162 +141 +3.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +3.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -17.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | September 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Robert Gasser Home: Trevor Rogers
ERA: 4.3 ERA: 4.22
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 8.6 K/9: 8.16
BB/9: 2.9 BB/9: 2.17
FIP: 4.04 FIP: 3.58
IP: 96.3 IP: 157.7
xERA: 4.19 xERA: 3.66
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Trevor Rogers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL BAL Lg Avg
Record 96-58 75-79
R/Game 5.18 4.50 4.49
RA/Game 3.90 4.68 4.49
OPS 0.747 0.712 0.719
wOBA 0.321 0.307 0.310
ERA 3.59 4.15 4.18
FIP 3.58 4.00 4.04
WHIP 1.19 1.35 1.31
K/9 9.68 8.11 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.628 0.483 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.43 4.01 4.24
BP FIP 3.55 3.66 4.06
BP WHIP 1.26 1.30
BP K/9 9.07 8.81
BP Quality* 49.4 47.7 46.1
BP IP 532.0 518.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Shane Drohan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Yennier Cano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Nunez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Walker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0048 (Temp: 1.0087 | Wind: 0.9962)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 5.0 - BAL 4.8
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.0 - BAL 4.8
Win Probability: MIL 51.2% - BAL 48.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -105 / BAL +105
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 7.5: 66.8%
Under 7.5: 33.2%
MIL -1.5: 36.4%
BAL +1.5: 63.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.6 - BAL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.6 - BAL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: MIL 50.9% - BAL 49.1% (Tie: 15.4%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -103 / BAL +103
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -114 -105 -2.1%
BAL ML -106 +105 -2.7%
MIL -1.5 +145 +175 -4.4%
BAL +1.5 -175 -175 -0.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +14.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -19.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01186
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | September 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Freddy Peralta
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TB Lg Avg
Record 84-70 93-60
R/Game 4.39 4.58 4.49
RA/Game 3.84 4.07 4.49
OPS 0.722 0.734 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.314 0.310
ERA 3.60 3.74 4.18
FIP 3.55 3.93 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.14 1.31
K/9 8.76 8.19 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.561 0.554 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.43 3.45 4.24
BP FIP 3.50 3.83 4.06
BP WHIP 1.26 1.10
BP K/9 9.37 8.78
BP Quality* 44.5 44.8 46.1
BP IP 424.7 432.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Wyatt Olds (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Greg Weissert (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Casey Legumina (B2B, 29 pitches)
TIRED: Alex Cook (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 4.1 - TB 4.4
Simulated Avg: BOS 4.1 - TB 4.4
Win Probability: BOS 46.5% - TB 53.5%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +115 / TB -115
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 57.0%
Under 7.5: 43.0%
BOS +1.5: 63.3%
TB -1.5: 36.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 2.3 - TB 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 2.3 - TB 2.5
F5 Win Prob: BOS 47.7% - TB 52.3% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +110 / TB -110
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML +129 +115 +2.8%
TB ML -157 -115 -7.5%
BOS +1.5 -175 -173 -0.3%
TB -1.5 +144 +173 -4.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +4.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -9.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Regular Season | September 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andrew Painter Home: Christian Scott
ERA: 5.54 ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 7.8 K/9: 10.85
BB/9: 3.36 BB/9: 3.93
FIP: 4.63 FIP: 3.48
IP: 115.3 IP: 105.3
xERA: 4.55 xERA: 3.69
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Christian Scott)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI NYM Lg Avg
Record 85-69 70-84
R/Game 4.46 4.26 4.49
RA/Game 4.26 4.54 4.49
OPS 0.710 0.702 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.98 4.16 4.18
FIP 3.65 3.93 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.30 1.31
K/9 9.82 9.03 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.521 0.471 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.25 4.37 4.24
BP FIP 3.67 4.25 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.32
BP K/9 9.89 9.32
BP Quality* 48.4 47.0 46.1
BP IP 537.7 331.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tanner Banks (37 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: José Urquidy (64 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jhoan Duran (2 of last 3 days)
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0193 (Temp: 0.9975 | Wind: 1.0218)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.0 - NYM 4.8
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.0 - NYM 4.8
Win Probability: PHI 42.3% - NYM 57.7%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +136 / NYM -136
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 49.9%
Under 8.0: 40.9%
PHI +1.5: 59.0%
NYM -1.5: 41.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.1 - NYM 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.1 - NYM 2.7
F5 Win Prob: PHI 39.2% - NYM 60.8% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +155 / NYM -155
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML +104 +136 -6.7%
NYM ML -126 -136 +1.9%
PHI +1.5 -201 -144 -7.8%
NYM -1.5 +164 +144 +3.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | September 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob Lopez Home: Tanner Bibee
ERA: 5.02 ERA: 4.16
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 8.4 K/9: 7.11
BB/9: 4.4 BB/9: 2.74
FIP: 4.97 FIP: 4.49
IP: 114.7 IP: 177.3
xERA: 3.51 xERA: 4.28
xwOBA: 0.29 xwOBA: 0.318
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Tanner Bibee)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH CLE Lg Avg
Record 61-93 79-75
R/Game 4.31 4.13 4.49
RA/Game 5.71 4.16 4.49
OPS 0.717 0.690 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.300 0.310
ERA 5.41 3.79 4.18
FIP 4.72 3.68 4.04
WHIP 1.50 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.52 9.60 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.374 0.496 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.76 3.64 4.24
BP FIP 4.66 3.48 4.06
BP WHIP 1.61 1.27
BP K/9 9.05 10.07
BP Quality* 60.6 45.1 46.1
BP IP 591.0 529.0
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Seth Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Scott Blewett (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Rom (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Joey Cantillo (81 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 32%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0141 (Temp: 0.9948 | Wind: 1.0194)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 4.2 - CLE 4.8
Simulated Avg: ATH 4.2 - CLE 4.8
Win Probability: ATH 43.8% - CLE 56.2%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +128 / CLE -128
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 7.5: 61.4%
Under 7.5: 38.6%
ATH +1.5: 60.1%
CLE -1.5: 39.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 2.4 - CLE 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 2.4 - CLE 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ATH 49.6% - CLE 50.4% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +102 / CLE -102
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +155 +128 +4.6%
CLE ML -188 -128 -9.1%
ATH +1.5 -142 -150 +1.4%
CLE -1.5 +118 +150 -5.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +9.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -13.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.0%
Fair ML: -159 | Kelly: 4.72%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01187
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | September 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Boyd Home: Nick Lodolo
ERA: 4.16 ERA: 5.12
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 6.99 K/9: 7.36
BB/9: 2.75 BB/9: 3.91
FIP: 4.16 FIP: 5.32
IP: 114.7 IP: 96.7
xERA: 4.67 xERA: 6.32
xwOBA: 0.331 xwOBA: 0.377
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Matthew Boyd)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC CIN Lg Avg
Record 85-69 72-82
R/Game 5.33 4.15 4.49
RA/Game 4.42 5.14 4.49
OPS 0.771 0.703 0.719
wOBA 0.332 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.21 4.87 4.18
FIP 4.55 4.64 4.04
WHIP 1.27 1.45 1.31
K/9 7.83 8.20 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.585 0.404 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.58 4.80 4.24
BP FIP 4.64 4.60 4.06
BP WHIP 1.37 1.46
BP K/9 8.63 8.70
BP Quality* 51.6 57.6 46.1
BP IP 522.3 575.3
Bullpen Edge: CHC (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Javier Assad (34 pitches yesterday)
CIN: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Julian Aguiar (54 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 33%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9966 (Temp: 1.0156 | Wind: 0.9813)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CHC 7.3 - CIN 4.8
Simulated Avg: CHC 7.3 - CIN 4.8
Win Probability: CHC 68.8% - CIN 31.2%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -220 / CIN +220
Avg Total Runs: 12.1
Over 9.0: 65.9%
Under 9.0: 27.1%
CHC -1.5: 56.4%
CIN +1.5: 43.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CHC 4.2 - CIN 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 4.2 - CIN 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CHC 69.8% - CIN 30.2% (Tie: 11.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -231 / CIN +231
F5 Avg Total: 6.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -143 -220 +9.9%
CIN ML +119 +220 -14.4%
CHC -1.5 +113 -130 +9.5%
CIN +1.5 -136 +130 -14.1%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +13.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -25.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 9.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01188
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | September 19, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Noah Cameron Home: Bubba Chandler
ERA: 3.84 ERA: 4.28
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 8.06 K/9: 8.06
BB/9: 2.81 BB/9: 4.58
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 4.07
IP: 166.3 IP: 147.3
xERA: 3.93 xERA: 4.22
xwOBA: 0.306 xwOBA: 0.316
Pitcher Edge: KC (Noah Cameron)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC PIT Lg Avg
Record 67-87 77-77
R/Game 4.21 4.79 4.49
RA/Game 4.86 4.62 4.49
OPS 0.712 0.735 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.319 0.310
ERA 4.65 4.19 4.18
FIP 4.49 3.67 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.30 1.31
K/9 7.40 9.23 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.435 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.79 3.94 4.24
BP FIP 5.18 3.58 4.06
BP WHIP 1.62 1.34
BP K/9 7.63 9.47
BP Quality* 63.5 47.4 46.1
BP IP 513.0 494.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
KC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Nate Pearson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Connor Thomas (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Gose (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 18%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0193 (Temp: 1.0036 | Wind: 1.0157)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: KC 4.2 - PIT 5.3
Simulated Avg: KC 4.2 - PIT 5.4
Win Probability: KC 38.7% - PIT 61.3%
Fair Moneyline: KC +158 / PIT -158
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.0: 56.0%
Under 8.0: 35.0%
KC -1.5: 25.0%
PIT +1.5: 75.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: KC 2.3 - PIT 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 2.3 - PIT 2.4
F5 Win Prob: KC 48.4% - PIT 51.6% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +107 / PIT -107
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML -102 +158 -11.8%
PIT ML -118 -158 +7.2%
KC -1.5 +159 +300 -13.6%
PIT +1.5 -194 -300 +9.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +3.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -17.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | September 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: José Soriano Home: Cal Quantrill
ERA: 3.56 ERA: 2.9
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 8.45 K/9: 6.71
BB/9: 3.83 BB/9: 2.07
FIP: 3.73 FIP: 3.85
IP: 169.3 IP: 108.7
xERA: 4.4 xERA: 3.9
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.305
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR TEX Lg Avg
Record 76-78 77-77
R/Game 4.03 4.19 4.49
RA/Game 4.31 4.40 4.49
OPS 0.693 0.716 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.91 4.28 4.18
FIP 3.90 3.99 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.79 8.59 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.469 0.477 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.49 4.55 4.24
BP FIP 3.90 4.28 4.06
BP WHIP 1.28 1.39
BP K/9 8.37 8.50
BP Quality* 42.5 51.6 46.1
BP IP 317.3 529.7
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trevor Williams (49 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jakob Junis (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 93°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (93°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0055 (Temp: 1.0309 | Wind: 0.9753)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 4.1 - TEX 4.2
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.1 - TEX 4.2
Win Probability: TOR 48.4% - TEX 51.6%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +107 / TEX -107
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.5: 54.8%
Under 7.5: 45.2%
TOR -1.5: 31.9%
TEX +1.5: 68.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.0 - TEX 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.0 - TEX 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TOR 44.6% - TEX 55.4% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +124 / TEX -124
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML -109 +107 -3.8%
TEX ML -111 -107 -1.0%
TOR -1.5 +152 +213 -7.8%
TEX +1.5 -185 -213 +3.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | September 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Grant Holmes Home: Hayden Wesneski
ERA: 3.49 ERA: 3.7
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 6.99 K/9: 7.03
BB/9: 3.75 BB/9: 2.96
FIP: 4.63 FIP: 3.59
IP: 141.7 IP: 48.7
xERA: 4.83 xERA: 3.69
xwOBA: 0.336 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Hayden Wesneski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL HOU Lg Avg
Record 90-64 77-77
R/Game 4.62 4.44 4.49
RA/Game 3.88 4.79 4.49
OPS 0.722 0.723 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.63 4.52 4.18
FIP 3.96 4.38 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.47 8.84 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.580 0.465 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.45 4.22 4.24
BP FIP 3.51 4.32 4.06
BP WHIP 1.20 1.29
BP K/9 9.16 9.05
BP Quality* 41.1 49.7 46.1
BP IP 414.7 525.0
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Didier Fuentes (40 pitches yesterday)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Enyel De Los Santos (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan King (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (85°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0046 (Temp: 1.0192 | Wind: 0.9857)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.4 - HOU 4.5
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.4 - HOU 4.5
Win Probability: ATL 48.4% - HOU 51.6%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +107 / HOU -107
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.5: 50.3%
Under 8.5: 49.7%
ATL +1.5: 64.5%
HOU -1.5: 35.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.2 - HOU 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.2 - HOU 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ATL 43.0% - HOU 57.0% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +132 / HOU -132
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML +113 +107 +1.5%
HOU ML -137 -107 -6.2%
ATL +1.5 -188 -182 -0.7%
HOU -1.5 +154 +182 -3.9%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -2.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -2.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | September 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Alvarez Home: Michael McGreevy
ERA: 3.35 ERA: 3.83
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 8.74 K/9: 6.3
BB/9: 4.15 BB/9: 2.53
FIP: 3.18 FIP: 4.17
IP: 102.0 IP: 160.0
xERA: 4.19 xERA: 5.27
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.349
Pitcher Edge: WSH (Andrew Alvarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH STL Lg Avg
Record 72-82 75-79
R/Game 5.11 4.51 4.49
RA/Game 5.04 4.65 4.49
OPS 0.749 0.697 0.719
wOBA 0.321 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.69 4.30 4.18
FIP 4.54 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.36 1.31
K/9 7.95 8.01 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.486 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.98 4.57 4.24
BP FIP 5.10 4.07 4.06
BP WHIP 1.59 1.38
BP K/9 8.55 8.32
BP Quality* 58.8 49.3 46.1
BP IP 501.3 549.3
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Cooper Hjerpe (74 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0216 (Temp: 1.0294 | Wind: 0.9924)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 5.4 - STL 4.8
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.4 - STL 4.8
Win Probability: WSH 55.6% - STL 44.4%
Fair Moneyline: WSH -125 / STL +125
Avg Total Runs: 10.2
Over 8.5: 61.4%
Under 8.5: 38.6%
WSH -1.5: 40.8%
STL +1.5: 59.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 3.0 - STL 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 3.0 - STL 2.2
F5 Win Prob: WSH 63.3% - STL 36.7% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -172 / STL +172
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML -104 -125 +4.6%
STL ML -115 +125 -9.1%
WSH -1.5 +155 +145 +1.6%
STL +1.5 -189 -145 -6.2%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +9.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -13.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.0%
Fair ML: -159 | Kelly: 4.73%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01189
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | September 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryce Miller Home: Jose Quintana
ERA: 4.19 ERA: 5.27
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.51
K/9: 8.89 K/9: 4.39
BB/9: 2.85 BB/9: 3.73
FIP: 4.5 FIP: 5.27
IP: 107.3 IP: 41.0
xERA: 3.69 xERA: 5.07
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.343
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryce Miller)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA COL Lg Avg
Record 72-82 56-98
R/Game 4.08 4.68 4.49
RA/Game 4.44 5.84 4.49
OPS 0.693 0.742 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.319 0.310
ERA 4.21 5.61 4.18
FIP 3.85 4.72 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.53 1.31
K/9 8.68 7.04 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.462 0.400 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.32 5.01 4.24
BP FIP 4.09 4.37 4.06
BP WHIP 1.36 1.53
BP K/9 8.63 7.75
BP Quality* 51.1 56.4 46.1
BP IP 506.7 314.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrés Muñoz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carlos Vargas (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jaden Hill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 34%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0087 (Temp: 0.9899 | Wind: 1.0190)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 5.7 - COL 5.8
Simulated Avg: SEA 5.7 - COL 5.7
Win Probability: SEA 50.2% - COL 49.8%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -101 / COL +101
Avg Total Runs: 11.5
Over 11.0: 47.0%
Under 11.0: 45.4%
SEA -1.5: 36.9%
COL +1.5: 63.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 3.2 - COL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 3.2 - COL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: SEA 52.7% - COL 47.3% (Tie: 13.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -111 / COL +111
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -155 -101 -10.6%
COL ML +128 +101 +5.9%
SEA -1.5 +100 +171 -13.1%
COL +1.5 -120 -171 +8.5%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -5.4%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -7.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line) [-120]
Model: 63.1% | Market: 54.5% | Edge: 8.5%
Fair ML: -171 | Kelly: 4.68%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01190
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | September 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cam Schlittler Home: Brandon Pfaadt
ERA: 1.95 ERA: 3.77
WHIP: 0.9 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 11.11 K/9: 6.1
BB/9: 2.14 BB/9: 2.1
FIP: 2.47 FIP: 3.91
IP: 184.7 IP: 124.0
xERA: 2.86 xERA: 3.85
xwOBA: 0.263 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY ARI Lg Avg
Record 89-64 80-74
R/Game 4.61 4.42 4.49
RA/Game 3.68 4.46 4.49
OPS 0.721 0.712 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.18 4.11 4.18
FIP 3.59 4.18 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.28 1.31
K/9 9.02 7.08 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.602 0.495 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.10 3.41 4.24
BP FIP 3.96 3.42 4.06
BP WHIP 1.20 1.18
BP K/9 8.10 7.90
BP Quality* 40.9 40.8 46.1
BP IP 543.0 491.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Zac Gallen (68 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Chase Field
Temperature: 97°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (97°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0487 (Temp: 1.0379 | Wind: 1.0103)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.3 - ARI 3.4
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.3 - ARI 3.4
Win Probability: NYY 60.2% - ARI 39.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -151 / ARI +151
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 7.5: 49.5%
Under 7.5: 50.5%
NYY -1.5: 42.4%
ARI +1.5: 57.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.5 - ARI 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.5 - ARI 1.6
F5 Win Prob: NYY 66.9% - ARI 33.1% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -202 / ARI +202
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -148 -151 +0.5%
ARI ML +122 +151 -5.2%
NYY -1.5 +119 +136 -3.3%
ARI +1.5 -143 -136 -1.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -2.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -1.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | September 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Eury Pérez Home: Casey Mize
ERA: 3.99 ERA: 3.69
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 9.67 K/9: 7.75
BB/9: 3.99 BB/9: 2.24
FIP: 3.9 FIP: 3.59
IP: 144.3 IP: 124.3
xERA: 4.1 xERA: 3.61
xwOBA: 0.312 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: SD (Casey Mize)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA SD Lg Avg
Record 76-78 85-69
R/Game 4.44 4.39 4.49
RA/Game 4.42 4.16 4.49
OPS 0.727 0.716 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.12 3.93 4.18
FIP 4.00 4.04 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.29 1.31
K/9 8.29 8.23 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.501 0.525 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.60 2.75 4.24
BP FIP 3.97 2.94 4.06
BP WHIP 1.34 1.14
BP K/9 8.90 11.12
BP Quality* 51.5 38.4 46.1
BP IP 521.0 317.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dax Fulton (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jack Ralston (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: David Morgan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Griffin Canning (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0074 (Temp: 1.0009 | Wind: 1.0065)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 3.6 - SD 4.4
Simulated Avg: MIA 3.6 - SD 4.4
Win Probability: MIA 40.9% - SD 59.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +144 / SD -144
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 7.5: 51.8%
Under 7.5: 48.2%
MIA +1.5: 58.7%
SD -1.5: 41.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.0 - SD 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.0 - SD 2.3
F5 Win Prob: MIA 45.9% - SD 54.1% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +118 / SD -118
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +131 +144 -2.4%
SD ML -159 -144 -2.3%
MIA +1.5 -169 -142 -4.1%
SD -1.5 +139 +142 -0.5%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -0.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -4.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | September 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Tarik Skubal
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF LAD Lg Avg
Record 64-90 94-60
R/Game 4.23 4.98 4.49
RA/Game 4.72 3.78 4.49
OPS 0.716 0.762 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.327 0.310
ERA 4.37 3.63 4.18
FIP 4.11 3.65 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.16 1.31
K/9 7.60 9.41 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.450 0.624 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.76 4.08 4.24
BP FIP 4.54 3.81 4.06
BP WHIP 1.51 1.30
BP K/9 6.87 9.71
BP Quality* 55.0 48.4 46.1
BP IP 468.7 483.0
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Philip Abner (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Kris Bubic (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seth Halvorsen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blake Treinen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9931 (Temp: 0.9976 | Wind: 0.9955)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 3.2 - LAD 5.3
Simulated Avg: SF 3.2 - LAD 5.3
Win Probability: SF 29.6% - LAD 70.4%
Fair Moneyline: SF +238 / LAD -238
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 56.2%
Under 7.5: 43.8%
SF +1.5: 46.1%
LAD -1.5: 53.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 1.4 - LAD 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 1.4 - LAD 2.7
F5 Win Prob: SF 27.3% - LAD 72.7% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +266 / LAD -266
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +311 +238 +5.2%
LAD ML -404 -238 -9.7%
SF +1.5 +134 +117 +3.3%
LAD -1.5 -162 -117 -7.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +3.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | September 19, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Joe Ryan Home: Reid Detmers
ERA: 3.84 ERA: 3.36
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 9.83 K/9: 10.29
BB/9: 1.95 BB/9: 2.38
FIP: 3.51 FIP: 2.95
IP: 133.7 IP: 174.0
xERA: 3.66 xERA: 3.23
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.279
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN LAA Lg Avg
Record 72-82 59-95
R/Game 4.54 4.02 4.49
RA/Game 5.00 4.54 4.49
OPS 0.720 0.677 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.294 0.310
ERA 4.63 4.19 4.18
FIP 4.12 3.91 4.04
WHIP 1.37 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.60 9.12 8.48
Pythag Win% 0.456 0.445 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.56 4.60 4.24
BP FIP 3.98 4.13 4.06
BP WHIP 1.44 1.41
BP K/9 9.06 9.15
BP Quality* 56.6 51.1 46.1
BP IP 558.3 409.0
Bullpen Edge: LAA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Travis Adams (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tommy Nance (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Luke Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sammy Peralta (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9855 (Temp: 1.0006 | Wind: 0.9849)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.0 - LAA 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.0 - LAA 4.2
Win Probability: MIN 47.9% - LAA 52.0%
Fair Moneyline: MIN +109 / LAA -109
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 53.2%
Under 7.5: 46.8%
MIN -1.5: 31.4%
LAA +1.5: 68.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 1.9 - LAA 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 1.9 - LAA 1.9
F5 Win Prob: MIN 48.6% - LAA 51.4% (Tie: 19.6%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN +106 / LAA -106
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML -108 +109 -4.0%
LAA ML -111 -109 -0.6%
MIN -1.5 +150 +218 -8.6%
LAA +1.5 -183 -218 +3.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -5.6%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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