2026-09-20
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-20
Games: 15 | Plays: 4
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Regular Season | September 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cristopher Sánchez Home: Jonah Tong
ERA: 2.93 ERA: 3.43
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 9.99 K/9: 8.57
BB/9: 2.04 BB/9: 3.86
FIP: 2.7 FIP: 3.72
IP: 193.7 IP: 21.0
xERA: 3.4 xERA: 3.11
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: 0.274
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI NYM Lg Avg
Record 85-70 71-84
R/Game 4.45 4.30 4.49
RA/Game 4.30 4.53 4.49
OPS 0.710 0.704 0.720
wOBA 0.306 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.02 4.15 4.18
FIP 3.67 3.92 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.30 1.31
K/9 9.83 9.05 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.516 0.476 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI NYM Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 4.33 4.23
BP FIP 3.69 4.23 4.05
BP WHIP 1.35 1.32
BP K/9 9.89 9.36
BP Quality* 47.4 49.8 46.1
BP IP 540.3 334.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
UNAVAIL: Orion Kerkering (B2B, 36 pitches)
NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tobias Myers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dedniel Núñez (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Bryan De La Cruz, Derek Hill, Edmundo Sosa
Bryan De La Cruz Outfielder OPS: 0.790 (66 AB)
Derek Hill Outfielder OPS: 0.748 (195 AB)
Edmundo Sosa Outfielder OPS: 0.702 (223 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.6% of full strength
NYM (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citi Field
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 69%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), light wind (7 mph) | Rain likely (69%)
Weather Factor: 0.9876 (Temp: 0.9936 | Wind: 0.9940)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 3.9 - NYM 3.5
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.9 - NYM 3.5
Win Probability: PHI 53.3% - NYM 46.7%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -114 / NYM +114
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.5: 45.8%
Under 7.5: 54.2%
PHI -1.5: 35.4%
NYM +1.5: 64.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.0 - NYM 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.0 - NYM 1.6
F5 Win Prob: PHI 57.6% - NYM 42.4% (Tie: 19.8%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -136 / NYM +136
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -161 -114 -8.4%
NYM ML +133 +114 +3.8%
PHI -1.5 +109 +183 -12.5%
NYM +1.5 -132 -183 +7.8%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -6.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +1.8%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] New York Mets +1.5 (Run Line) [-132]
Model: 64.6% | Market: 56.9% | Edge: 7.8%
Fair ML: -183 | Kelly: 4.50%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01191
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | September 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael Wacha Home: Lake Bachar
ERA: 3.34 ERA: 3.5
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 7.11 K/9: 9.4
BB/9: 2.34 BB/9: 3.83
FIP: 4.16 FIP: 4.34
IP: 188.7 IP: 82.3
xERA: 3.9 xERA: 3.5
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.29
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat KC PIT Lg Avg
Record 67-88 78-77
R/Game 4.21 4.80 4.49
RA/Game 4.86 4.62 4.49
OPS 0.713 0.736 0.720
wOBA 0.306 0.320 0.310
ERA 4.66 4.20 4.18
FIP 4.51 3.66 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.30 1.31
K/9 7.41 9.25 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.435 0.518 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat KC PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.80 3.96 4.23
BP FIP 5.20 3.56 4.05
BP WHIP 1.62 1.34
BP K/9 7.62 9.49
BP Quality* 60.6 50.4 46.1
BP IP 515.0 496.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Connor Thomas (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Camilo Doval (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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KC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Carter Jensen, Vinnie Pasquantino
Carter Jensen Catcher OPS: 0.773 (507 AB)
Vinnie Pasquantino First Base OPS: 0.724 (396 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.6% of full strength
PIT (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Esmerlyn Valdez, Endy Rodríguez
Esmerlyn Valdez Outfielder OPS: 0.855 (241 AB)
Endy Rodríguez Catcher OPS: 0.840 (135 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 38%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9821 (Temp: 1.0034 | Wind: 0.9787)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: KC 3.8 - PIT 4.8
Simulated Avg: KC 3.8 - PIT 4.8
Win Probability: KC 39.9% - PIT 60.1%
Fair Moneyline: KC +151 / PIT -151
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.5: 47.2%
Under 8.5: 52.8%
KC -1.5: 25.0%
PIT +1.5: 75.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: KC 2.0 - PIT 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: KC 1.9 - PIT 2.2
F5 Win Prob: KC 44.6% - PIT 55.4% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: KC +124 / PIT -124
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
KC ML -101 +151 -10.3%
PIT ML -119 -151 +5.8%
KC -1.5 +162 +299 -13.1%
PIT +1.5 -198 -299 +8.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -5.2%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +0.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
Regular Season | September 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: David Peterson Home: Rhett Lowder
ERA: 5.11 ERA: 5.79
WHIP: 1.55 WHIP: 1.52
K/9: 8.13 K/9: 7.09
BB/9: 4.06 BB/9: 3.69
FIP: 3.97 FIP: 4.64
IP: 137.3 IP: 124.3
xERA: 4.86 xERA: 5.34
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.351
Pitcher Edge: CHC (David Peterson)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC CIN Lg Avg
Record 86-69 72-83
R/Game 5.33 4.14 4.49
RA/Game 4.40 5.14 4.49
OPS 0.771 0.701 0.720
wOBA 0.331 0.303 0.310
ERA 4.18 4.87 4.18
FIP 4.53 4.65 4.04
WHIP 1.27 1.45 1.31
K/9 7.84 8.17 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.587 0.402 0.500
Park Factor 107 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC CIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 4.82 4.23
BP FIP 4.61 4.61 4.05
BP WHIP 1.37 1.46
BP K/9 8.66 8.71
BP Quality* 49.9 53.2 46.1
BP IP 525.7 577.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Tyrone Taylor, Matt Shaw
Tyrone Taylor Outfielder OPS: 0.822 (212 AB)
Matt Shaw Outfielder OPS: 0.754 (158 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.8% of full strength
CIN (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Spencer Steer, Eugenio Suárez, Blake Dunn, Juan Brito
Spencer Steer First Base OPS: 0.740 (340 AB)
Eugenio Suárez Designated Hitter OPS: 0.728 (416 AB)
Blake Dunn Outfielder OPS: 0.722 (142 AB)
Juan Brito Second Base OPS: 0.667 (91 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0256 (Temp: 1.0282 | Wind: 0.9975)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 6.5 - CIN 4.7
Simulated Avg: CHC 6.5 - CIN 4.7
Win Probability: CHC 64.8% - CIN 35.2%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -184 / CIN +184
Avg Total Runs: 11.2
Over 9.5: 60.4%
Under 9.5: 39.6%
CHC -1.5: 51.8%
CIN +1.5: 48.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 3.8 - CIN 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.8 - CIN 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CHC 65.4% - CIN 34.6% (Tie: 13.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -189 / CIN +189
F5 Avg Total: 6.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -163 -184 +2.8%
CIN ML +134 +184 -7.6%
CHC -1.5 -101 -107 +1.5%
CIN +1.5 -119 +107 -6.1%
O 9.5 -110 N/A +8.0%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -12.7%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.19%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01192
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | September 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jack Perkins Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 6.14 ERA: 3.78
WHIP: 1.48 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 10.39 K/9: 12.16
BB/9: 3.93 BB/9: 2.9
FIP: 4.46 FIP: 3.38
IP: 110.0 IP: 174.0
xERA: 4.07 xERA: 3.77
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.3
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Gavin Williams)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATH CLE Lg Avg
Record 61-94 80-75
R/Game 4.32 4.18 4.49
RA/Game 5.75 4.17 4.49
OPS 0.718 0.693 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.301 0.310
ERA 5.46 3.80 4.18
FIP 4.74 3.69 4.04
WHIP 1.50 1.26 1.31
K/9 8.51 9.56 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.372 0.501 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATH CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.74 3.62 4.23
BP FIP 4.66 3.50 4.05
BP WHIP 1.60 1.27
BP K/9 9.03 10.03
BP Quality* 60.4 40.7 46.1
BP IP 596.3 531.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Geoff Hartlieb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chris Roycroft (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Drew Rom (2 of last 3 days)
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATH (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Carlos Cortes
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer Third Base OPS: 1.018 (60 AB)
Nick Kurtz First Base OPS: 0.879 (352 AB)
Tyler Soderstrom Outfielder OPS: 0.810 (396 AB)
Carlos Cortes Outfielder OPS: 0.711 (328 AB)
Run Adjustment: 86.1% of full strength
CLE (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Austin Hedges, Brayan Rocchio
Austin Hedges Catcher OPS: 0.695 (207 AB)
Brayan Rocchio Shortstop OPS: 0.693 (515 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 35%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0268 (Temp: 0.9974 | Wind: 1.0295)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATH 3.2 - CLE 5.0
Simulated Avg: ATH 3.2 - CLE 5.0
Win Probability: ATH 31.6% - CLE 68.5%
Fair Moneyline: ATH +217 / CLE -217
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.0: 53.2%
Under 7.0: 37.2%
ATH +1.5: 49.0%
CLE -1.5: 51.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATH 1.8 - CLE 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: ATH 1.8 - CLE 2.6
F5 Win Prob: ATH 35.4% - CLE 64.6% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ATH +182 / CLE -182
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATH ML +200 +217 -1.8%
CLE ML -247 -217 -2.7%
ATH +1.5 -112 +104 -3.9%
CLE -1.5 -107 -104 -0.7%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +0.8%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -15.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | September 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Patrick Sandoval Home: Griffin Jax
ERA: 4.99 ERA: 3.8
WHIP: 1.79 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 9.68 K/9: 9.49
BB/9: 4.53 BB/9: 2.85
FIP: 3.81 FIP: 3.81
IP: 57.7 IP: 104.3
xERA: 5.3 xERA: 4.39
xwOBA: 0.35 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TB Lg Avg
Record 84-71 94-60
R/Game 4.37 4.56 4.49
RA/Game 3.83 4.05 4.49
OPS 0.723 0.732 0.720
wOBA 0.311 0.313 0.310
ERA 3.58 3.72 4.18
FIP 3.54 3.92 4.04
WHIP 1.24 1.14 1.31
K/9 8.78 8.19 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.560 0.554 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.43 3.43 4.23
BP FIP 3.49 3.82 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.11
BP K/9 9.37 8.77
BP Quality* 43.1 43.3 46.1
BP IP 425.3 436.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Garrett Whitlock (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Wyatt Olds (2 of last 3 days)
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Alex Cook (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Casey Legumina (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Willson Contreras, Curtis Mead, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, Masataka Yoshida, Anthony Seigler
Willson Contreras First Base OPS: 0.905 (446 AB)
Curtis Mead Second Base OPS: 0.851 (285 AB)
Wilyer Abreu Outfielder OPS: 0.785 (574 AB)
Ceddanne Rafaela Outfielder OPS: 0.760 (535 AB)
Masataka Yoshida Designated Hitter OPS: 0.746 (263 AB)
Anthony Seigler Second Base OPS: 0.727 (150 AB)
Run Adjustment: 83.4% of full strength
TB (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Liam Hicks, Jonathan Aranda, Richie Palacios
Liam Hicks Catcher OPS: 0.811 (459 AB)
Jonathan Aranda First Base OPS: 0.800 (563 AB)
Richie Palacios Second Base OPS: 0.707 (329 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.6% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 3.3 - TB 4.3
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.3 - TB 4.3
Win Probability: BOS 38.7% - TB 61.3%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +158 / TB -158
Avg Total Runs: 7.5
Over 7.5: 47.2%
Under 7.5: 52.8%
BOS +1.5: 57.1%
TB -1.5: 42.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 1.9 - TB 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.8 - TB 2.5
F5 Win Prob: BOS 38.0% - TB 62.0% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +163 / TB -163
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML +128 +158 -5.1%
TB ML -155 -158 +0.5%
BOS +1.5 -171 -133 -6.0%
TB -1.5 +141 +133 +1.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -5.1%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +0.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | September 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Martín Pérez Home: Hunter Brown
ERA: 3.07 ERA: 3.43
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 6.54 K/9: 10.21
BB/9: 3.92 BB/9: 4.55
FIP: 4.18 FIP: 3.82
IP: 137.7 IP: 97.0
xERA: 4.58 xERA: 3.3
xwOBA: 0.328 xwOBA: 0.282
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Hunter Brown)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL HOU Lg Avg
Record 91-64 77-78
R/Game 4.63 4.43 4.49
RA/Game 3.87 4.79 4.49
OPS 0.723 0.723 0.720
wOBA 0.311 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.62 4.53 4.18
FIP 3.96 4.39 4.04
WHIP 1.25 1.35 1.31
K/9 8.46 8.81 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.581 0.464 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.45 4.27 4.23
BP FIP 3.50 4.36 4.05
BP WHIP 1.20 1.30
BP K/9 9.16 9.01
BP Quality* 41.1 53.1 46.1
BP IP 417.7 528.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Raisel Iglesias (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Logan VanWey (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0383 (Temp: 1.0298 | Wind: 1.0082)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 4.6 - HOU 4.4
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.6 - HOU 4.4
Win Probability: ATL 51.8% - HOU 48.2%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -108 / HOU +108
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.0: 51.3%
Under 8.0: 39.4%
ATL +1.5: 67.7%
HOU -1.5: 32.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.2 - HOU 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.2 - HOU 2.5
F5 Win Prob: ATL 45.6% - HOU 54.4% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +119 / HOU -119
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML +129 -108 +8.2%
HOU ML -155 +108 -12.6%
ATL +1.5 -171 -210 +4.6%
HOU -1.5 +141 +210 -9.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -1.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | September 20, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Troy Melton Home: Davis Martin
ERA: 2.52 ERA: 3.96
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 7.32 K/9: 7.34
BB/9: 2.77 BB/9: 2.74
FIP: 3.92 FIP: 3.67
IP: 110.7 IP: 141.0
xERA: 3.74 xERA: 4.64
xwOBA: 0.299 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat DET CWS Lg Avg
Record 73-82 79-76
R/Game 4.49 4.68 4.49
RA/Game 4.01 4.45 4.49
OPS 0.718 0.720 0.720
wOBA 0.311 0.310 0.310
ERA 3.63 4.13 4.18
FIP 3.84 4.07 4.04
WHIP 1.22 1.31 1.31
K/9 8.17 8.34 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.552 0.523 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat DET CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.15 4.01 4.23
BP FIP 4.36 4.32 4.05
BP WHIP 1.31 1.32
BP K/9 8.26 8.40
BP Quality* 48.6 52.6 46.1
BP IP 468.3 276.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jacob Waguespack (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Noah Schultz (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Grant Taylor (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Hicks (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DET (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Randal Grichuk, Tristan Peters, Joey Bart
Randal Grichuk Unknown OPS: 0.866 (246 AB)
Tristan Peters Outfielder OPS: 0.795 (419 AB)
Joey Bart Catcher OPS: 0.662 (112 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 80%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), wind out (11 mph) | Rain likely (80%)
Weather Factor: 1.0420 (Temp: 0.9921 | Wind: 1.0503)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: DET 4.8 - CWS 4.3
Simulated Avg: DET 4.8 - CWS 4.3
Win Probability: DET 55.0% - CWS 45.0%
Fair Moneyline: DET -122 / CWS +122
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.0: 51.9%
Under 8.0: 38.7%
DET -1.5: 39.5%
CWS +1.5: 60.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: DET 2.5 - CWS 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: DET 2.5 - CWS 2.1
F5 Win Prob: DET 57.1% - CWS 42.9% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: DET -133 / CWS +133
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
DET ML -105 -122 +3.8%
CWS ML -115 +122 -8.5%
DET -1.5 +159 +153 +0.9%
CWS +1.5 -194 -153 -5.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals
Regular Season | September 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jake Irvin Home: Quinn Mathews
ERA: 5.51 ERA: 3.62
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 8.97 K/9: 8.68
BB/9: 4.3 BB/9: 3.86
FIP: 4.83 FIP: 3.5
IP: 96.3 IP: 37.3
xERA: 5.37 xERA: 3.45
xwOBA: 0.352 xwOBA: 0.288
Pitcher Edge: STL (Quinn Mathews)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH STL Lg Avg
Record 73-82 75-80
R/Game 5.13 4.51 4.49
RA/Game 5.04 4.67 4.49
OPS 0.748 0.697 0.720
wOBA 0.320 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.66 4.30 4.18
FIP 4.51 3.94 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.36 1.31
K/9 7.97 7.99 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.508 0.484 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH STL Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.94 4.56 4.23
BP FIP 5.08 4.05 4.05
BP WHIP 1.59 1.38
BP K/9 8.54 8.33
BP Quality* 61.6 49.2 46.1
BP IP 505.7 556.3
Bullpen Edge: STL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Riley Cornelio (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jack Sinclair (2 of last 3 days)
STL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (34 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
STL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joshua Báez, Everson Pereira
Joshua Báez Outfielder OPS: 0.788 (100 AB)
Everson Pereira Outfielder OPS: 0.748 (98 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.1% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Busch Stadium
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0192 (Temp: 1.0287 | Wind: 0.9908)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 4.7 - STL 5.7
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.7 - STL 5.7
Win Probability: WSH 41.4% - STL 58.6%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +142 / STL -142
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 8.5: 63.0%
Under 8.5: 37.0%
WSH +1.5: 56.0%
STL -1.5: 44.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 2.4 - STL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.4 - STL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: WSH 40.4% - STL 59.6% (Tie: 15.0%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +148 / STL -148
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +108 +142 -6.7%
STL ML -131 -142 +1.9%
WSH +1.5 -186 -128 -9.0%
STL -1.5 +153 +128 +4.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +10.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -15.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01193
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | September 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Spencer Miles Home: Jacob deGrom
ERA: 2.65 ERA: 3.79
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 8.54 K/9: 11.31
BB/9: 2.36 BB/9: 2.27
FIP: 2.7 FIP: 3.03
IP: 91.7 IP: 154.3
xERA: 2.97 xERA: 3.35
xwOBA: 0.268 xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Spencer Miles)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR TEX Lg Avg
Record 76-79 78-77
R/Game 4.01 4.20 4.49
RA/Game 4.32 4.39 4.49
OPS 0.693 0.717 0.720
wOBA 0.299 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.92 4.26 4.18
FIP 3.90 3.99 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.30 1.31
K/9 8.82 8.56 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.480 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.46 4.51 4.23
BP FIP 3.90 4.28 4.05
BP WHIP 1.28 1.39
BP K/9 8.40 8.44
BP Quality* 43.9 52.9 46.1
BP IP 320.3 536.3
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brendan Cellucci (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jacob Latz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 95°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Hot (95°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0149 (Temp: 1.0339 | Wind: 0.9816)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 4.0 - TEX 3.6
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.0 - TEX 3.6
Win Probability: TOR 53.9% - TEX 46.1%
Fair Moneyline: TOR -117 / TEX +117
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.5: 47.5%
Under 7.5: 52.5%
TOR +1.5: 71.4%
TEX -1.5: 28.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 1.9 - TEX 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 1.9 - TEX 1.7
F5 Win Prob: TOR 54.5% - TEX 45.5% (Tie: 20.6%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR -120 / TEX +120
F5 Avg Total: 3.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TOR ML +138 -117 +11.9%
TEX ML -167 +117 -16.5%
TOR +1.5 -162 -250 +9.6%
TEX -1.5 +134 +250 -14.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -4.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +0.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (Run Line) [-162]
Model: 71.4% | Market: 61.8% | Edge: 9.6%
Fair ML: -250 | Kelly: 6.26%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01194
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | September 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kade Anderson Home: Tomoyuki Sugano
ERA: 5.33 ERA: 5.49
WHIP: 1.42 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 7.46 K/9: 5.43
BB/9: 2.84 BB/9: 2.14
FIP: 4.44 FIP: 5.43
IP: 25.3 IP: 142.7
xERA: 4.24 xERA: 6.61
xwOBA: 0.317 xwOBA: 0.384
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Kade Anderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA COL Lg Avg
Record 72-83 57-98
R/Game 4.08 4.68 4.49
RA/Game 4.45 5.82 4.49
OPS 0.694 0.741 0.720
wOBA 0.302 0.319 0.310
ERA 4.21 5.60 4.18
FIP 3.85 4.72 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.53 1.31
K/9 8.68 7.05 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.461 0.402 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SEA COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.36 4.93 4.23
BP FIP 4.09 4.32 4.05
BP WHIP 1.37 1.52
BP K/9 8.62 7.80
BP Quality* 51.3 57.3 46.1
BP IP 509.3 319.7
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carlos Vargas (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gabe Speier (2 of last 3 days)
COL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Brennan Bernardino (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jaden Hill (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SEA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0360 (Temp: 1.0047 | Wind: 1.0312)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SEA 6.4 - COL 6.3
Simulated Avg: SEA 6.3 - COL 6.3
Win Probability: SEA 50.1% - COL 49.9%
Fair Moneyline: SEA -100 / COL +100
Avg Total Runs: 12.7
Over 10.5: 63.0%
Under 10.5: 37.0%
SEA -1.5: 37.6%
COL +1.5: 62.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SEA 3.7 - COL 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SEA 3.7 - COL 3.5
F5 Win Prob: SEA 52.8% - COL 47.2% (Tie: 12.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SEA -112 / COL +112
F5 Avg Total: 7.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SEA ML -163 -100 -11.9%
COL ML +135 +100 +7.4%
SEA -1.5 -105 +166 -13.6%
COL +1.5 -115 -166 +8.9%
O 10.5 -110 N/A +10.6%
U 10.5 -110 N/A -15.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 10.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01195
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
Regular Season | September 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Dean Kremer Home: Ryan Johnson
ERA: 5.35 ERA: 4.88
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.34
K/9: 8.61 K/9: 6.97
BB/9: 3.03 BB/9: 3.89
FIP: 5.05 FIP: 5.44
IP: 77.3 IP: 90.3
xERA: 4.55 xERA: 5.06
xwOBA: 0.327 xwOBA: 0.343
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Dean Kremer)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN LAA Lg Avg
Record 72-83 60-95
R/Game 4.54 4.03 4.49
RA/Game 5.01 4.54 4.49
OPS 0.719 0.679 0.720
wOBA 0.311 0.295 0.310
ERA 4.63 4.19 4.18
FIP 4.12 3.90 4.04
WHIP 1.37 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.61 9.12 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.456 0.446 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN LAA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.57 4.55 4.23
BP FIP 4.00 4.10 4.05
BP WHIP 1.44 1.41
BP K/9 9.08 9.17
BP Quality* 55.2 55.3 46.1
BP IP 563.0 415.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Yoendrys Gómez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kody Funderburk (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jeff Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
LAA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Ryan Watson (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ben Joyce (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blake Weiman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Angel Stadium
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9907 (Temp: 1.0115 | Wind: 0.9794)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 5.4 - LAA 4.9
Simulated Avg: MIN 5.4 - LAA 4.9
Win Probability: MIN 54.4% - LAA 45.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -120 / LAA +120
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 8.0: 62.1%
Under 8.0: 29.8%
MIN -1.5: 40.1%
LAA +1.5: 59.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 3.1 - LAA 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 3.1 - LAA 2.7
F5 Win Prob: MIN 56.1% - LAA 43.9% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -128 / LAA +128
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIN ML -120 -120 -0.1%
LAA ML -101 +120 -4.7%
MIN -1.5 +139 +150 -1.8%
LAA +1.5 -168 -150 -2.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +9.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -22.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 62.1% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.7%
Fair ML: -164 | Kelly: 5.10%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01196
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | September 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Matt Wilkinson Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF LAD Lg Avg
Record 64-91 95-60
R/Game 4.23 5.01 4.49
RA/Game 4.75 3.78 4.49
OPS 0.716 0.764 0.720
wOBA 0.305 0.327 0.310
ERA 4.39 3.63 4.18
FIP 4.12 3.65 4.04
WHIP 1.37 1.16 1.31
K/9 7.58 9.42 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.446 0.626 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SF LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.81 4.05 4.23
BP FIP 4.58 3.78 4.05
BP WHIP 1.53 1.29
BP K/9 6.83 9.78
BP Quality* 57.0 46.6 46.1
BP IP 478.7 487.0
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Philip Abner (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Duncan Davitt (36 pitches yesterday)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Edwin Díaz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Seth Halvorsen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SF (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9963 (Temp: 1.0118 | Wind: 0.9847)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SF 4.0 - LAD 5.6
Simulated Avg: SF 4.0 - LAD 5.6
Win Probability: SF 35.2% - LAD 64.8%
Fair Moneyline: SF +184 / LAD -184
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.5: 57.1%
Under 8.5: 42.9%
SF +1.5: 50.4%
LAD -1.5: 49.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SF 2.2 - LAD 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SF 2.2 - LAD 2.9
F5 Win Prob: SF 39.9% - LAD 60.1% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: SF +151 / LAD -151
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SF ML +228 +184 +4.7%
LAD ML -286 -184 -9.3%
SF +1.5 +106 -101 +1.8%
LAD -1.5 -127 +101 -6.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.7%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | September 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sandy Alcantara Home: Walker Buehler
ERA: 3.84 ERA: 4.58
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 6.51 K/9: 7.66
BB/9: 2.53 BB/9: 3.39
FIP: 3.95 FIP: 4.34
IP: 206.0 IP: 143.3
xERA: 3.9 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.318
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Sandy Alcantara)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA SD Lg Avg
Record 76-79 86-69
R/Game 4.45 4.41 4.49
RA/Game 4.44 4.17 4.49
OPS 0.728 0.717 0.720
wOBA 0.315 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.14 3.94 4.18
FIP 4.00 4.05 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.29 1.31
K/9 8.31 8.26 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.501 0.525 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.57 2.74 4.23
BP FIP 3.94 2.97 4.05
BP WHIP 1.34 1.15
BP K/9 8.94 11.20
BP Quality* 48.3 41.6 46.1
BP IP 525.7 321.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Morgan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Randy Vásquez (36 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Griffin Canning (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind in (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9940 (Temp: 1.0065 | Wind: 0.9876)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.1 - SD 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.1 - SD 4.2
Win Probability: MIA 48.7% - SD 51.3%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +105 / SD -105
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.0: 44.9%
Under 8.0: 45.2%
MIA +1.5: 65.8%
SD -1.5: 34.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.4 - SD 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.4 - SD 2.2
F5 Win Prob: MIA 53.8% - SD 46.2% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA -117 / SD +117
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +124 +105 +4.1%
SD ML -150 -105 -8.7%
MIA +1.5 -180 -192 +1.5%
SD -1.5 +148 +192 -6.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -7.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -7.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Regular Season | September 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Will Warren Home: Corbin Burnes
ERA: 3.89 ERA: 5.87
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 8.94 K/9: 7.04
BB/9: 3.1 BB/9: 2.35
FIP: 3.99 FIP: 5.7
IP: 148.0 IP: 7.7
xERA: 4.39 xERA: 3.71
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Will Warren)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY ARI Lg Avg
Record 89-65 81-74
R/Game 4.60 4.42 4.49
RA/Game 3.69 4.45 4.49
OPS 0.721 0.712 0.720
wOBA 0.310 0.305 0.310
ERA 3.18 4.11 4.18
FIP 3.59 4.18 4.04
WHIP 1.16 1.28 1.31
K/9 9.03 7.08 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.600 0.497 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY ARI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.12 3.41 4.23
BP FIP 3.97 3.47 4.05
BP WHIP 1.20 1.18
BP K/9 8.14 7.88
BP Quality* 42.5 39.5 46.1
BP IP 545.3 495.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Michael Fulmer (2 of last 3 days)
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ARI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Chase Field
Environment: Retractable roof (likely closed)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 4.5 - ARI 4.4
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.5 - ARI 4.3
Win Probability: NYY 51.0% - ARI 48.9%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -104 / ARI +104
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 8.0: 49.9%
Under 8.0: 40.9%
NYY -1.5: 35.2%
ARI +1.5: 64.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 2.7 - ARI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.7 - ARI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: NYY 54.6% - ARI 45.4% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -121 / ARI +121
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML -101 -104 +0.8%
ARI ML -120 +104 -5.6%
NYY -1.5 +167 +184 -2.3%
ARI +1.5 -205 -184 -2.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -2.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -11.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | September 20, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jacob Misiorowski Home: Brandon Young
ERA: 1.89 ERA: 3.65
WHIP: 0.81 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 13.15 K/9: 7.29
BB/9: 2.27 BB/9: 3.4
FIP: 2.03 FIP: 4.49
IP: 166.3 IP: 145.7
xERA: 2.08 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.224 xwOBA: 0.323
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL BAL Lg Avg
Record 97-58 75-80
R/Game 5.15 4.47 4.49
RA/Game 3.87 4.65 4.49
OPS 0.744 0.710 0.720
wOBA 0.320 0.307 0.310
ERA 3.56 4.12 4.18
FIP 3.58 3.98 4.04
WHIP 1.19 1.34 1.31
K/9 9.65 8.13 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.628 0.482 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.42 4.01 4.23
BP FIP 3.54 3.65 4.05
BP WHIP 1.25 1.30
BP K/9 9.07 8.81
BP Quality* 44.7 43.1 46.1
BP IP 534.0 519.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Patrick (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 27%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0155 (Temp: 1.0036 | Wind: 1.0119)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 5.2 - BAL 3.3
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.1 - BAL 3.3
Win Probability: MIL 68.3% - BAL 31.7%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -215 / BAL +215
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.5: 55.2%
Under 7.5: 44.8%
MIL -1.5: 52.1%
BAL +1.5: 47.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 3.0 - BAL 1.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.0 - BAL 1.3
F5 Win Prob: MIL 78.6% - BAL 21.4% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -367 / BAL +367
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -206 -215 +1.0%
BAL ML +169 +215 -5.5%
MIL -1.5 -118 -109 -2.0%
BAL +1.5 -102 +109 -2.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +2.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -7.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================