2026-09-21
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-21
Games: 3 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | September 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trey Yesavage Home: Shane Baz
ERA: 3.65 ERA: 4.11
WHIP: 1.14 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 8.74 K/9: 7.91
BB/9: 4.42 BB/9: 3.12
FIP: 4.02 FIP: 3.51
IP: 93.7 IP: 173.0
xERA: 3.4 xERA: 4.21
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Shane Baz)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BAL Lg Avg
Record 77-79 75-81
R/Game 4.03 4.44 4.49
RA/Game 4.30 4.64 4.49
OPS 0.694 0.708 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.91 4.12 4.18
FIP 3.90 3.98 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.34 1.31
K/9 8.81 8.17 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.480 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.42 4.00 4.23
BP FIP 3.89 3.65 4.06
BP WHIP 1.28 1.30
BP K/9 8.34 8.84
BP Quality* 49.8 44.6 46.1
BP IP 323.7 522.0
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Spencer Arrighetti (43 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: José Rodríguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brendan Cellucci (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Grant Wolfram (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 12%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0178 (Temp: 0.9946 | Wind: 1.0233)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 3.9 - BAL 4.5
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.9 - BAL 4.5
Win Probability: TOR 42.8% - BAL 57.2%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +134 / BAL -134
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.5: 56.1%
Under 7.5: 43.9%
TOR -1.5: 27.4%
BAL +1.5: 72.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.1 - BAL 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.2 - BAL 2.3
F5 Win Prob: TOR 47.6% - BAL 52.4% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +110 / BAL -110
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML -108 +134 -9.1%
BAL ML -112 -134 +4.3%
TOR -1.5 +154 +265 -12.0%
BAL +1.5 -187 -265 +7.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +3.7%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] WSH starter (id 687792) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] DET starter (id 689981) has no current-season data
[NO CURRENT-SEASON DATA] HARD PASS — no plays logged for this game (the model never uses prior-season data).
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | September 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Player 687792 Home: Player 689981
ERA: 0.0 ERA: 0.0
WHIP: 0.0 WHIP: 0.0
K/9: 0.0 K/9: 0.0
BB/9: 0.0 BB/9: 0.0
FIP: 0.0 FIP: 0.0
IP: 0.0 IP: 0.0
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH DET Lg Avg
Record 73-83 73-83
R/Game 5.12 4.47 4.49
RA/Game 5.04 4.03 4.49
OPS 0.747 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.320 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.66 3.66 4.18
FIP 4.52 3.85 4.04
WHIP 1.38 1.23 1.31
K/9 7.98 8.17 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.547 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 5.97 4.19 4.23
BP FIP 5.13 4.39 4.06
BP WHIP 1.59 1.31
BP K/9 8.50 8.25
BP Quality* 66.4 50.4 46.1
BP IP 508.3 472.3
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Will Dion (B2B, 29 pitches)
TIRED: Yovanny Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Tolman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Sinclair (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brant Hurter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ty Madden (48 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0288 (Temp: 0.9834 | Wind: 1.0461)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 4.4 - DET 5.1
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.4 - DET 5.1
Win Probability: WSH 43.1% - DET 56.9%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +132 / DET -132
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.0: 55.9%
Under 8.0: 35.1%
WSH +1.5: 58.8%
DET -1.5: 41.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.0 - DET 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.0 - DET 2.3
F5 Win Prob: WSH 45.3% - DET 54.7% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +121 / DET -121
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +112 +132 -4.1%
DET ML -135 -132 -0.5%
WSH +1.5 -186 -143 -6.2%
DET -1.5 +153 +143 +1.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +3.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -17.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | September 21, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zebby Matthews Home: Blade Tidwell
ERA: 4.74 ERA: 4.56
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 7.68 K/9: 7.09
BB/9: 2.8 BB/9: 3.54
FIP: 4.71 FIP: 4.41
IP: 125.3 IP: 53.3
xERA: 4.48 xERA: 4.51
xwOBA: 0.324 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN SF Lg Avg
Record 73-83 64-92
R/Game 4.56 4.21 4.49
RA/Game 4.97 4.74 4.49
OPS 0.720 0.713 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.60 4.39 4.18
FIP 4.11 4.11 4.04
WHIP 1.37 1.37 1.31
K/9 8.62 7.59 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.461 0.445 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.57 4.84 4.23
BP FIP 4.00 4.59 4.06
BP WHIP 1.44 1.53
BP K/9 9.08 6.80
BP Quality* 49.2 55.6 46.1
BP IP 563.0 481.7
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bailey Ober (31 pitches yesterday)
SF: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Philip Abner (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), wind in (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9629 (Temp: 0.9830 | Wind: 0.9796)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.6 - SF 4.3
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.6 - SF 4.3
Win Probability: MIN 52.9% - SF 47.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -112 / SF +112
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 8.0: 50.4%
Under 8.0: 40.2%
MIN -1.5: 37.1%
SF +1.5: 62.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIN 2.5 - SF 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.5 - SF 2.4
F5 Win Prob: MIN 51.5% - SF 48.5% (Tie: 16.3%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -106 / SF +106
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML -120 -112 -1.6%
SF ML -101 +112 -3.2%
MIN -1.5 +141 +170 -4.4%
SF +1.5 -171 -170 -0.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -1.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -12.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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