2026-09-22
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-22
Games: 16 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Martinez Home: Carlos Rodón
ERA: 2.94 ERA: 2.95
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 5.31 K/9: 9.79
BB/9: 1.26 BB/9: 4.48
FIP: 3.93 FIP: 3.61
IP: 171.3 IP: 76.3
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 3.98
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.307
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Carlos Rodón)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB NYY Lg Avg
Record 95-60 89-66
R/Game 4.56 4.60 4.49
RA/Game 4.03 3.72 4.49
OPS 0.732 0.721 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.310 0.310
ERA 3.70 3.22 4.18
FIP 3.92 3.59 4.04
WHIP 1.13 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.20 9.02 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.557 0.596 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.42 3.17 4.23
BP FIP 3.83 3.99 4.06
BP WHIP 1.10 1.21
BP K/9 8.77 8.11
BP Quality* 43.2 42.8 46.1
BP IP 439.0 548.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ryan Vilade
Ryan Vilade Outfielder OPS: 0.785 (227 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.4% of full strength
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Aaron Judge Outfielder OPS: 0.871 (237 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt First Base OPS: 0.771 (336 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Second Base OPS: 0.715 (461 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0441 (Temp: 0.9898 | Wind: 1.0548)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.0 - NYY 4.0
Simulated Avg: TB 4.0 - NYY 4.0
Win Probability: TB 49.9% - NYY 50.1%
Fair Moneyline: TB +100 / NYY -100
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.0: 52.4%
Under 7.0: 37.4%
TB +1.5: 67.2%
NYY -1.5: 32.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 2.2 - NYY 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.2 - NYY 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TB 50.6% - NYY 49.4% (Tie: 17.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -103 / NYY +103
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +112 +100 +2.7%
NYY ML -135 -100 -7.3%
TB +1.5 -199 -205 +0.6%
NYY -1.5 +163 +205 -5.2%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +0.1%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -15.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (Game 2)
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Drew Rasmussen Home: Max Fried
ERA: 2.72 ERA: 2.63
WHIP: 0.93 WHIP: 0.98
K/9: 8.87 K/9: 8.49
BB/9: 1.58 BB/9: 2.63
FIP: 2.76 FIP: 2.58
IP: 165.3 IP: 106.0
xERA: 3.13 xERA: 2.5
xwOBA: 0.274 xwOBA: 0.245
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB NYY Lg Avg
Record 95-60 89-66
R/Game 4.56 4.60 4.49
RA/Game 4.03 3.72 4.49
OPS 0.732 0.721 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.310 0.310
ERA 3.70 3.22 4.18
FIP 3.92 3.59 4.04
WHIP 1.13 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.20 9.02 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.557 0.596 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.42 3.17 4.23
BP FIP 3.83 3.99 4.06
BP WHIP 1.10 1.21
BP K/9 8.77 8.11
BP Quality* 46.2 44.3 46.1
BP IP 439.0 548.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Brent Headrick (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Ryan Vilade
Ryan Vilade Outfielder OPS: 0.785 (227 AB)
Run Adjustment: 97.4% of full strength
NYY (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Aaron Judge Outfielder OPS: 0.871 (237 AB)
Paul Goldschmidt First Base OPS: 0.771 (336 AB)
Giancarlo Stanton Designated Hitter OPS: 0.724 (90 AB)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Second Base OPS: 0.715 (461 AB)
Run Adjustment: 90.4% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0441 (Temp: 0.9898 | Wind: 1.0548)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 3.4 - NYY 3.6
Simulated Avg: TB 3.4 - NYY 3.6
Win Probability: TB 47.2% - NYY 52.8%
Fair Moneyline: TB +112 / NYY -112
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 6.5: 52.6%
Under 6.5: 47.3%
TB +1.5: 66.4%
NYY -1.5: 33.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 1.6 - NYY 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 1.6 - NYY 1.7
F5 Win Prob: TB 47.6% - NYY 52.4% (Tie: 22.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +110 / NYY -110
F5 Avg Total: 3.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +109 +112 -0.6%
NYY ML -132 -112 -4.1%
TB +1.5 -207 -198 -1.0%
NYY -1.5 +169 +198 -3.6%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +0.3%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -5.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Max Scherzer Home: Chris Bassitt
ERA: 6.07 ERA: 4.64
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.55
K/9: 6.69 K/9: 6.68
BB/9: 3.84 BB/9: 3.43
FIP: 5.4 FIP: 4.1
IP: 72.7 IP: 97.0
xERA: 4.36 xERA: 4.96
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.339
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Chris Bassitt)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BAL Lg Avg
Record 77-80 76-81
R/Game 4.03 4.44 4.49
RA/Game 4.30 4.63 4.49
OPS 0.692 0.709 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.92 4.11 4.18
FIP 3.91 3.97 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.34 1.30
K/9 8.82 8.15 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.481 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.42 3.98 4.23
BP FIP 3.93 3.63 4.06
BP WHIP 1.28 1.30
BP K/9 8.40 8.86
BP Quality* 52.9 43.0 46.1
BP IP 329.0 524.3
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TOR: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
UNAVAIL: Tyler Rogers (3 consecutive days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Dallas (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brendan Cellucci (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Rodríguez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Paul Sewald (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TOR (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BAL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 71%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), light wind (8 mph) | Rain likely (71%)
Weather Factor: 1.0204 (Temp: 0.9848 | Wind: 1.0362)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TOR 4.2 - BAL 5.7
Simulated Avg: TOR 4.2 - BAL 5.7
Win Probability: TOR 36.2% - BAL 63.8%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +176 / BAL -176
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 7.0: 67.1%
Under 7.0: 24.9%
TOR +1.5: 51.5%
BAL -1.5: 48.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TOR 2.5 - BAL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.5 - BAL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: TOR 39.5% - BAL 60.5% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +153 / BAL -153
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +102 +176 -13.3%
BAL ML -123 -176 +8.6%
TOR +1.5 -217 -106 -17.0%
BAL -1.5 +177 +106 +12.4%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +14.7%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -27.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01197
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jackson Kent Home: Drew Anderson
ERA: 6.4 ERA: 3.62
WHIP: 1.76 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 7.52 K/9: 9.62
BB/9: 6.4 BB/9: 3.79
FIP: 4.37 FIP: 4.01
IP: 32.3 IP: 102.0
xERA: 5.37 xERA: 3.81
xwOBA: 0.351 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: DET (Drew Anderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat WSH DET Lg Avg
Record 73-84 74-83
R/Game 5.10 4.50 4.49
RA/Game 5.06 4.02 4.49
OPS 0.746 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.319 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.69 3.65 4.18
FIP 4.54 3.85 4.04
WHIP 1.39 1.22 1.30
K/9 7.98 8.19 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.503 0.551 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat WSH DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.03 4.19 4.23
BP FIP 5.17 4.38 4.06
BP WHIP 1.60 1.31
BP K/9 8.49 8.28
BP Quality* 66.9 48.8 46.1
BP IP 516.3 477.3
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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WSH: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Luis Perales (47 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Josiah Gray (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Yovanny Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Tolman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Will Dion (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Keider Montero (58 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0282 (Temp: 0.9861 | Wind: 1.0427)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: WSH 5.0 - DET 6.1
Simulated Avg: WSH 4.9 - DET 6.2
Win Probability: WSH 39.8% - DET 60.2%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +151 / DET -151
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 8.0: 67.3%
Under 8.0: 25.5%
WSH +1.5: 53.6%
DET -1.5: 46.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: WSH 2.6 - DET 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.6 - DET 3.2
F5 Win Prob: WSH 41.6% - DET 58.4% (Tie: 14.4%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH +140 / DET -140
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
WSH ML +130 +151 -3.7%
DET ML -157 -151 -0.9%
WSH +1.5 -162 -116 -8.2%
DET -1.5 +134 +116 +3.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +14.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -26.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 14.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01198
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andre Pallante Home: Jared Jones
ERA: 3.7 ERA: 4.17
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.19
K/9: 6.2 K/9: 10.82
BB/9: 2.8 BB/9: 3.08
FIP: 3.6 FIP: 3.44
IP: 151.0 IP: 90.7
xERA: 4.04 xERA: 3.45
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.287
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL PIT Lg Avg
Record 76-80 79-77
R/Game 4.51 4.79 4.49
RA/Game 4.66 4.61 4.49
OPS 0.697 0.738 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.320 0.310
ERA 4.29 4.19 4.18
FIP 3.94 3.66 4.04
WHIP 1.36 1.30 1.30
K/9 7.98 9.24 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.485 0.518 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 3.92 4.23
BP FIP 4.03 3.54 4.06
BP WHIP 1.38 1.33
BP K/9 8.33 9.50
BP Quality* 50.6 44.1 46.1
BP IP 558.3 500.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Riley O'Brien (2 of last 3 days)
PIT: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0271 (Temp: 0.9832 | Wind: 1.0446)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 4.0 - PIT 4.8
Simulated Avg: STL 4.0 - PIT 4.8
Win Probability: STL 41.9% - PIT 58.1%
Fair Moneyline: STL +139 / PIT -139
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.0: 59.5%
Under 7.0: 31.5%
STL +1.5: 58.7%
PIT -1.5: 41.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 2.2 - PIT 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.2 - PIT 2.5
F5 Win Prob: STL 45.0% - PIT 55.0% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +122 / PIT -122
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +143 +139 +0.8%
PIT ML -173 -139 -5.3%
STL +1.5 -162 -142 -3.2%
PIT -1.5 +134 +142 -1.4%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +7.1%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -20.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.1%
Fair ML: -147 | Kelly: 3.75%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01199
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dustin May Home: Zack Wheeler
ERA: 4.61 ERA: 2.99
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 8.77 K/9: 10.6
BB/9: 3.01 BB/9: 2.75
FIP: 3.26 FIP: 3.39
IP: 140.7 IP: 150.3
xERA: 4.42 xERA: 2.99
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.268
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PHI Lg Avg
Record 98-58 86-70
R/Game 5.14 4.47 4.49
RA/Game 3.85 4.28 4.49
OPS 0.744 0.709 0.719
wOBA 0.320 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.54 4.00 4.18
FIP 3.57 3.66 4.04
WHIP 1.19 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.64 9.82 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.630 0.519 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.39 4.31 4.23
BP FIP 3.52 3.68 4.06
BP WHIP 1.25 1.35
BP K/9 9.05 9.88
BP Quality* 40.0 47.3 46.1
BP IP 539.0 543.0
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 27%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0206 (Temp: 0.9875 | Wind: 1.0335)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 4.6 - PHI 4.4
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.6 - PHI 4.4
Win Probability: MIL 51.4% - PHI 48.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -106 / PHI +106
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 7.0: 60.5%
Under 7.0: 30.4%
MIL +1.5: 67.5%
PHI -1.5: 32.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 2.2 - PHI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.2 - PHI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: MIL 45.5% - PHI 54.5% (Tie: 16.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +120 / PHI -120
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML +114 -106 +4.6%
PHI ML -137 +106 -9.2%
MIL +1.5 -192 -208 +1.8%
PHI -1.5 +157 +208 -6.4%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +8.1%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -22.0%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.5% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.2%
Fair ML: -153 | Kelly: 4.28%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01200
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Parker Messick Home: Payton Tolle
ERA: 2.57 ERA: 3.02
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 9.39 K/9: 10.45
BB/9: 2.37 BB/9: 2.39
FIP: 3.04 FIP: 2.94
IP: 178.3 IP: 143.0
xERA: 3.11 xERA: 2.66
xwOBA: 0.273 xwOBA: 0.253
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE BOS Lg Avg
Record 81-75 84-72
R/Game 4.16 4.35 4.49
RA/Game 4.15 3.83 4.49
OPS 0.692 0.721 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.310 0.310
ERA 3.78 3.59 4.18
FIP 3.67 3.54 4.04
WHIP 1.26 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.59 8.78 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.501 0.557 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.61 3.42 4.23
BP FIP 3.48 3.48 4.06
BP WHIP 1.27 1.26
BP K/9 10.06 9.39
BP Quality* 40.5 39.9 46.1
BP IP 533.3 426.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 56°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (56°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0142 (Temp: 0.9814 | Wind: 1.0334)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 3.3 - BOS 3.7
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.3 - BOS 3.7
Win Probability: CLE 45.4% - BOS 54.6%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +120 / BOS -120
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 6.5: 51.9%
Under 6.5: 48.1%
CLE +1.5: 64.8%
BOS -1.5: 35.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 1.7 - BOS 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.7 - BOS 1.8
F5 Win Prob: CLE 46.6% - BOS 53.4% (Tie: 20.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +115 / BOS -115
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML +108 +120 -2.7%
BOS ML -130 -120 -1.9%
CLE +1.5 -205 -184 -2.4%
BOS -1.5 +168 +184 -2.2%
O 6.5 -110 N/A -0.5%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -4.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Williamson Home: JR Ritchie
ERA: 5.56 ERA: 5.03
WHIP: 1.53 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 6.39 K/9: 8.33
BB/9: 5.56 BB/9: 5.46
FIP: 5.91 FIP: 5.35
IP: 43.7 IP: 62.7
xERA: 6.35 xERA: 5.3
xwOBA: 0.377 xwOBA: 0.349
Pitcher Edge: ATL (JR Ritchie)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN ATL Lg Avg
Record 72-84 92-64
R/Game 4.12 4.63 4.49
RA/Game 5.16 3.86 4.49
OPS 0.699 0.722 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.89 3.61 4.18
FIP 4.66 3.96 4.04
WHIP 1.45 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.19 8.47 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.398 0.582 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.83 3.45 4.23
BP FIP 4.64 3.50 4.06
BP WHIP 1.46 1.19
BP K/9 8.73 9.21
BP Quality* 51.9 41.0 46.1
BP IP 583.3 420.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 19%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0372 (Temp: 1.0117 | Wind: 1.0252)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 4.7 - ATL 6.5
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.7 - ATL 6.5
Win Probability: CIN 35.2% - ATL 64.8%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +184 / ATL -184
Avg Total Runs: 11.2
Over 9.0: 60.2%
Under 9.0: 32.3%
CIN +1.5: 49.1%
ATL -1.5: 50.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 3.0 - ATL 3.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 3.0 - ATL 3.9
F5 Win Prob: CIN 38.9% - ATL 61.1% (Tie: 12.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +157 / ATL -157
F5 Avg Total: 7.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +158 +184 -3.5%
ATL ML -193 -184 -1.1%
CIN +1.5 -131 +104 -7.6%
ATL -1.5 +109 -104 +3.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A +7.8%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -20.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 9.0 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.2% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.8%
Fair ML: -151 | Kelly: 4.10%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01201
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Anthony Kay Home: Daniel Lynch IV
ERA: 4.41 ERA: 3.29
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 7.31 K/9: 6.1
BB/9: 3.2 BB/9: 2.7
FIP: 4.29 FIP: 3.66
IP: 149.0 IP: 76.7
xERA: 4.99 xERA: 4.04
xwOBA: 0.34 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: KC (Daniel Lynch IV)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS KC Lg Avg
Record 80-76 67-89
R/Game 4.70 4.21 4.49
RA/Game 4.43 4.86 4.49
OPS 0.721 0.713 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.306 0.310
ERA 4.11 4.66 4.18
FIP 4.06 4.52 4.04
WHIP 1.31 1.39 1.30
K/9 8.34 7.42 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.527 0.434 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.00 5.81 4.23
BP FIP 4.33 5.20 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.62
BP K/9 8.39 7.65
BP Quality* 46.7 60.6 46.1
BP IP 279.0 517.3
Bullpen Edge: CWS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
KC: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Nolan Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0275 (Temp: 0.9930 | Wind: 1.0347)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 5.0 - KC 4.6
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.0 - KC 4.6
Win Probability: CWS 53.2% - KC 46.8%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -114 / KC +114
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.0: 56.7%
Under 8.0: 34.6%
CWS -1.5: 38.0%
KC +1.5: 62.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.3 - KC 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.3 - KC 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CWS 45.5% - KC 54.5% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +120 / KC -120
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML -125 -114 -2.3%
KC ML +104 +114 -2.2%
CWS -1.5 +135 +163 -4.5%
KC +1.5 -164 -163 -0.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +4.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -17.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Janson Junk Home: Shota Imanaga
ERA: 4.5 ERA: 3.8
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 6.16 K/9: 8.77
BB/9: 2.45 BB/9: 1.98
FIP: 4.14 FIP: 4.44
IP: 114.0 IP: 168.3
xERA: 4.42 xERA: 3.81
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.301
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Janson Junk)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA CHC Lg Avg
Record 76-80 87-69
R/Game 4.44 5.35 4.49
RA/Game 4.46 4.38 4.49
OPS 0.727 0.772 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.332 0.310
ERA 4.16 4.16 4.18
FIP 4.02 4.52 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.30 7.84 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.498 0.591 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.61 4.55 4.23
BP FIP 3.98 4.60 4.06
BP WHIP 1.34 1.37
BP K/9 8.95 8.66
BP Quality* 47.1 49.8 46.1
BP IP 527.7 526.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), wind out (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0147 (Temp: 0.9843 | Wind: 1.0309)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.7 - CHC 5.9
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.6 - CHC 5.9
Win Probability: MIA 38.5% - CHC 61.5%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +160 / CHC -160
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 6.5: 78.9%
Under 6.5: 21.1%
MIA +1.5: 53.0%
CHC -1.5: 47.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.5 - CHC 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.5 - CHC 3.3
F5 Win Prob: MIA 38.8% - CHC 61.2% (Tie: 13.9%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +158 / CHC -158
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +169 +160 +1.3%
CHC ML -207 -160 -5.9%
MIA +1.5 -134 -113 -4.2%
CHC -1.5 +112 +113 -0.2%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +26.5%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -31.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 6.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 26.5%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Sean Manaea Home: MacKenzie Gore
ERA: 4.74 ERA: 4.67
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 8.57 K/9: 9.34
BB/9: 2.66 BB/9: 3.75
FIP: 4.24 FIP: 3.76
IP: 138.7 IP: 165.7
xERA: 4.89 xERA: 4.09
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.311
Pitcher Edge: TEX (MacKenzie Gore)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM TEX Lg Avg
Record 71-85 78-78
R/Game 4.28 4.19 4.49
RA/Game 4.54 4.40 4.49
OPS 0.703 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.17 4.28 4.18
FIP 3.92 3.99 4.04
WHIP 1.30 1.30 1.30
K/9 9.05 8.54 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.477 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.33 4.49 4.23
BP FIP 4.25 4.27 4.06
BP WHIP 1.32 1.38
BP K/9 9.38 8.42
BP Quality* 48.4 51.3 46.1
BP IP 317.7 541.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jefry Yan (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robert Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0388 (Temp: 1.0277 | Wind: 1.0107)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 4.8 - TEX 5.1
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.8 - TEX 5.1
Win Probability: NYM 46.7% - TEX 53.3%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +114 / TEX -114
Avg Total Runs: 9.9
Over 8.0: 59.0%
Under 8.0: 32.6%
NYM +1.5: 61.9%
TEX -1.5: 38.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.5 - TEX 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.5 - TEX 2.8
F5 Win Prob: NYM 45.4% - TEX 54.6% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +120 / TEX -120
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML +110 +114 -0.9%
TEX ML -133 -114 -3.8%
NYM +1.5 -192 -163 -3.8%
TEX -1.5 +157 +163 -0.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +6.6%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -19.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael Soroka Home: Kyle Freeland
ERA: 3.45 ERA: 6.38
WHIP: 1.13 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 8.71 K/9: 7.29
BB/9: 2.24 BB/9: 1.96
FIP: 2.91 FIP: 4.87
IP: 104.3 IP: 128.3
xERA: 4.21 xERA: 5.33
xwOBA: 0.315 xwOBA: 0.35
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Michael Soroka)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI COL Lg Avg
Record 82-74 57-99
R/Game 4.44 4.66 4.49
RA/Game 4.45 5.79 4.49
OPS 0.714 0.739 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.318 0.310
ERA 4.11 5.57 4.18
FIP 4.20 4.71 4.04
WHIP 1.28 1.53 1.30
K/9 7.08 7.04 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.499 0.402 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.34 4.93 4.23
BP FIP 3.42 4.32 4.06
BP WHIP 1.17 1.52
BP K/9 7.89 7.80
BP Quality* 42.0 51.3 46.1
BP IP 493.0 319.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brandyn Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Martinez (2 of last 3 days)
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 10%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9813 (Temp: 1.0021 | Wind: 0.9793)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 6.0 - COL 4.7
Simulated Avg: ARI 6.0 - COL 4.7
Win Probability: ARI 60.9% - COL 39.1%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -155 / COL +155
Avg Total Runs: 10.6
Over 11.0: 40.4%
Under 11.0: 51.6%
ARI -1.5: 46.8%
COL +1.5: 53.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 3.6 - COL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 3.6 - COL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: ARI 65.1% - COL 34.9% (Tie: 13.3%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -186 / COL +186
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -198 -155 -5.6%
COL ML +162 +155 +1.0%
ARI -1.5 -126 +114 -9.0%
COL +1.5 +104 -114 +4.2%
O 11.0 -110 N/A -12.0%
U 11.0 -110 N/A -0.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Yusei Kikuchi Home: Brady Basso
ERA: 5.02 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.55 WHIP: 1.48
K/9: 9.1 K/9: 6.3
BB/9: 4.4 BB/9: 1.58
FIP: 4.13 FIP: 3.2
IP: 57.3 IP: 40.0
xERA: 4.96 xERA: 3.9
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.304
Pitcher Edge: ATH (Brady Basso)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA ATH Lg Avg
Record 60-96 61-95
R/Game 4.01 4.29 4.49
RA/Game 4.56 5.72 4.49
OPS 0.676 0.716 0.719
wOBA 0.294 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.21 5.44 4.18
FIP 3.90 4.72 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.50 1.30
K/9 9.12 8.50 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.441 0.372 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.59 5.72 4.23
BP FIP 4.12 4.65 4.06
BP WHIP 1.41 1.60
BP K/9 9.14 9.04
BP Quality* 49.5 55.8 46.1
BP IP 419.3 598.3
Bullpen Edge: LAA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mitch Farris (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9738 (Temp: 0.9874 | Wind: 0.9863)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 4.0 - ATH 4.8
Simulated Avg: LAA 4.0 - ATH 4.8
Win Probability: LAA 42.0% - ATH 58.0%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +138 / ATH -138
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 9.5: 41.6%
Under 9.5: 58.4%
LAA -1.5: 26.9%
ATH +1.5: 73.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.0 - ATH 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.0 - ATH 2.7
F5 Win Prob: LAA 37.9% - ATH 62.1% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +164 / ATH -164
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML -108 +138 -9.9%
ATH ML -111 -138 +5.4%
LAA -1.5 +152 +272 -12.8%
ATH +1.5 -185 -272 +8.2%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -10.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +6.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cristian Javier Home: Logan Gilbert
ERA: 5.31 ERA: 3.69
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 8.41 K/9: 9.81
BB/9: 3.84 BB/9: 2.33
FIP: 4.64 FIP: 3.74
IP: 61.0 IP: 178.0
xERA: 4.73 xERA: 3.63
xwOBA: 0.332 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Logan Gilbert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU SEA Lg Avg
Record 77-79 73-83
R/Game 4.41 4.06 4.49
RA/Game 4.79 4.42 4.49
OPS 0.723 0.692 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.53 4.19 4.18
FIP 4.38 3.84 4.04
WHIP 1.34 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.84 8.69 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.462 0.461 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.32 4.37 4.23
BP FIP 4.39 4.11 4.06
BP WHIP 1.30 1.37
BP K/9 8.97 8.64
BP Quality* 47.5 46.9 46.1
BP IP 530.7 511.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SEA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0036 (Temp: 0.9869 | Wind: 1.0169)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 3.8 - SEA 4.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 3.8 - SEA 4.3
Win Probability: HOU 44.8% - SEA 55.2%
Fair Moneyline: HOU +123 / SEA -123
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.0: 53.3%
Under 7.0: 37.0%
HOU +1.5: 62.2%
SEA -1.5: 37.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.0 - SEA 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.0 - SEA 2.5
F5 Win Prob: HOU 42.0% - SEA 58.0% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU +138 / SEA -138
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML +114 +123 -2.0%
SEA ML -137 -123 -2.6%
HOU +1.5 -186 -165 -2.8%
SEA -1.5 +153 +165 -1.7%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +0.9%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -15.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Taj Bradley Home: Anthony Molina
ERA: 3.81 ERA: 4.18
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 10.39 K/9: 8.04
BB/9: 3.81 BB/9: 1.93
FIP: 3.8 FIP: 3.35
IP: 172.3 IP: 28.0
xERA: 3.98 xERA: 3.87
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: SF (Anthony Molina)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN SF Lg Avg
Record 73-84 65-92
R/Game 4.55 4.21 4.49
RA/Game 4.97 4.73 4.49
OPS 0.718 0.713 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.305 0.310
ERA 4.60 4.37 4.18
FIP 4.09 4.11 4.04
WHIP 1.37 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.66 7.59 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.459 0.447 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIN SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 4.80 4.23
BP FIP 3.98 4.59 4.06
BP WHIP 1.44 1.52
BP K/9 9.10 6.80
BP Quality* 49.1 56.9 46.1
BP IP 566.0 487.3
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIN: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tristan Beck (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Trent Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 14 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (60°F), wind in (14 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9626 (Temp: 0.9852 | Wind: 0.9770)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIN 4.5 - SF 3.9
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.5 - SF 3.9
Win Probability: MIN 56.9% - SF 43.1%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -132 / SF +132
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.5: 55.6%
Under 7.5: 44.4%
MIN -1.5: 40.2%
SF +1.5: 59.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.4 - SF 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.4 - SF 2.0
F5 Win Prob: MIN 56.4% - SF 43.6% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -129 / SF +129
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML -135 -132 -0.6%
SF ML +112 +132 -4.1%
MIN -1.5 +129 +148 -3.4%
SF +1.5 -156 -148 -1.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | September 22, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael King Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD LAD Lg Avg
Record 87-69 96-60
R/Game 4.42 5.00 4.49
RA/Game 4.16 3.76 4.49
OPS 0.719 0.765 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.328 0.310
ERA 3.94 3.62 4.18
FIP 4.05 3.63 4.04
WHIP 1.29 1.15 1.30
K/9 8.24 9.45 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.528 0.627 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.74 4.04 4.23
BP FIP 2.97 3.77 4.06
BP WHIP 1.14 1.29
BP K/9 11.17 9.79
BP Quality* 37.0 43.5 46.1
BP IP 322.3 490.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (2 of last 3 days)
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9842 (Temp: 0.9956 | Wind: 0.9886)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 4.0 - LAD 4.3
Simulated Avg: SD 4.0 - LAD 4.2
Win Probability: SD 47.5% - LAD 52.5%
Fair Moneyline: SD +111 / LAD -111
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 45.0%
Under 8.5: 55.0%
SD +1.5: 64.5%
LAD -1.5: 35.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 2.3 - LAD 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 2.3 - LAD 2.5
F5 Win Prob: SD 47.4% - LAD 52.6% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +111 / LAD -111
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +109 +111 -0.4%
LAD ML -131 -111 -4.2%
SD +1.5 -193 -182 -1.4%
LAD -1.5 +158 +182 -3.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================