2026-09-23
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-23
Games: 16 | Plays: 3
======================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Richard Lovelady Home: Framber Valdez
ERA: 3.86 ERA: 4.06
WHIP: 1.84 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 8.27 K/9: 6.88
BB/9: 5.79 BB/9: 3.42
FIP: 4.78 FIP: 3.94
IP: 32.7 IP: 168.7
xERA: 5.4 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.352 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: DET (Framber Valdez)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH DET Lg Avg
Record 74-84 74-84
R/Game 5.08 4.47 4.48
RA/Game 5.04 4.01 4.48
OPS 0.745 0.719 0.719
wOBA 0.319 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.67 3.64 4.17
FIP 4.53 3.85 4.03
WHIP 1.39 1.22 1.30
K/9 8.00 8.19 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.504 0.550 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat WSH DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 6.12 4.16 4.23
BP FIP 5.22 4.36 4.06
BP WHIP 1.59 1.31
BP K/9 8.45 8.28
BP Quality* 62.8 50.1 46.1
BP IP 486.7 480.3
Bullpen Edge: DET (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jackson Kent (72 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Erik Tolman (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Beau Brieske (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brant Hurter (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
WSH (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Eduardo Valencia, Colt Keith
Eduardo Valencia Catcher OPS: 0.976 (117 AB)
Colt Keith Third Base OPS: 0.728 (384 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 16 mph (gusts 26 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), strong wind out (16 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0512 (Temp: 0.9939 | Wind: 1.0576)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: WSH 5.3 - DET 5.5
Simulated Avg: WSH 5.3 - DET 5.5
Win Probability: WSH 49.2% - DET 50.8%
Fair Moneyline: WSH +103 / DET -103
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 7.5: 73.2%
Under 7.5: 26.8%
WSH +1.5: 63.2%
DET -1.5: 36.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: WSH 2.9 - DET 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: WSH 2.9 - DET 2.8
F5 Win Prob: WSH 51.7% - DET 48.3% (Tie: 14.8%)
F5 Fair ML: WSH -107 / DET +107
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
WSH ML +134 +103 +6.5%
DET ML -163 -103 -11.2%
WSH +1.5 -163 -172 +1.2%
DET -1.5 +135 +172 -5.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +20.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -25.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 20.8%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Max Scherzer Home: Chris Bassitt
ERA: 6.07 ERA: 4.64
WHIP: 1.36 WHIP: 1.55
K/9: 6.69 K/9: 6.68
BB/9: 3.84 BB/9: 3.43
FIP: 5.4 FIP: 4.1
IP: 72.7 IP: 97.0
xERA: 4.35 xERA: 4.95
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.339
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Chris Bassitt)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR BAL Lg Avg
Record 77-80 76-81
R/Game 4.03 4.44 4.48
RA/Game 4.30 4.63 4.48
OPS 0.692 0.709 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.92 4.11 4.17
FIP 3.91 3.97 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.34 1.30
K/9 8.82 8.15 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.481 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.42 3.98 4.23
BP FIP 3.93 3.63 4.06
BP WHIP 1.28 1.30
BP K/9 8.40 8.86
BP Quality* 46.9 43.0 46.1
BP IP 329.0 524.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Rodríguez (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Brett Bateman, Luis Urías, Alejandro Kirk, Yohendrick Piñango, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Brett Bateman Outfielder OPS: 0.807 (150 AB)
Luis Urías Second Base OPS: 0.803 (52 AB)
Alejandro Kirk Catcher OPS: 0.778 (265 AB)
Yohendrick Piñango Outfielder OPS: 0.702 (169 AB)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. First Base OPS: 0.695 (529 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.2% of full strength
BAL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Blaze Alexander, Luis Robert Jr., Samuel Basallo, Tyler O'Neill
Blaze Alexander Third Base OPS: 0.772 (261 AB)
Luis Robert Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.707 (204 AB)
Samuel Basallo Catcher OPS: 0.697 (360 AB)
Tyler O'Neill Outfielder OPS: 0.677 (231 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 28 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0260 (Temp: 0.9858 | Wind: 1.0407)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 3.7 - BAL 5.1
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.7 - BAL 5.1
Win Probability: TOR 36.2% - BAL 63.8%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +176 / BAL -176
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.5: 59.4%
Under 7.5: 40.6%
TOR +1.5: 52.6%
BAL -1.5: 47.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.2 - BAL 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.2 - BAL 3.0
F5 Win Prob: TOR 38.2% - BAL 61.8% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +162 / BAL -162
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +109 +176 -11.7%
BAL ML -131 -176 +7.1%
TOR +1.5 -205 -111 -14.6%
BAL -1.5 +167 +111 +9.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +7.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -11.8%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (Run Line) [+167]
Model: 47.4% | Market: 37.5% | Edge: 9.9%
Fair ML: +111 | Kelly: 3.97%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01202
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles (Game 2)
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TOR BAL Lg Avg
Record 77-80 76-81
R/Game 4.03 4.44 4.48
RA/Game 4.30 4.63 4.48
OPS 0.692 0.709 0.719
wOBA 0.299 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.92 4.11 4.17
FIP 3.91 3.97 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.34 1.30
K/9 8.82 8.15 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.470 0.481 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TOR BAL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.42 3.98 4.23
BP FIP 3.93 3.63 4.06
BP WHIP 1.28 1.30
BP K/9 8.40 8.86
BP Quality* 51.4 43.0 46.1
BP IP 329.0 524.3
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tyler Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Fluharty (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Rodríguez (2 of last 3 days)
BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TOR (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Brett Bateman, Luis Urías, Alejandro Kirk, Yohendrick Piñango, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Brett Bateman Outfielder OPS: 0.807 (150 AB)
Luis Urías Second Base OPS: 0.803 (52 AB)
Alejandro Kirk Catcher OPS: 0.778 (265 AB)
Yohendrick Piñango Outfielder OPS: 0.702 (169 AB)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. First Base OPS: 0.695 (529 AB)
Run Adjustment: 88.2% of full strength
BAL (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Blaze Alexander, Luis Robert Jr., Samuel Basallo, Tyler O'Neill
Blaze Alexander Third Base OPS: 0.772 (261 AB)
Luis Robert Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.707 (204 AB)
Samuel Basallo Catcher OPS: 0.697 (360 AB)
Tyler O'Neill Outfielder OPS: 0.677 (231 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.2% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Camden Yards
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 28 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0260 (Temp: 0.9858 | Wind: 1.0407)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TOR 3.5 - BAL 4.6
Simulated Avg: TOR 3.5 - BAL 4.6
Win Probability: TOR 38.5% - BAL 61.5%
Fair Moneyline: TOR +160 / BAL -160
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.0: 43.5%
Under 8.0: 46.6%
TOR -1.5: 23.3%
BAL +1.5: 76.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TOR 2.0 - BAL 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TOR 2.0 - BAL 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TOR 43.4% - BAL 56.6% (Tie: 17.3%)
F5 Fair ML: TOR +130 / BAL -130
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TOR ML +102 +160 -11.0%
BAL ML -122 -160 +6.5%
TOR -1.5 +165 +329 -14.4%
BAL +1.5 -201 -329 +9.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -5.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Connor Prielipp Home: Cesar Perdomo
ERA: 4.94 ERA: 3.72
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.5
K/9: 9.35 K/9: 5.59
BB/9: 3.14 BB/9: 3.26
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 4.97
IP: 120.3 IP: 19.3
xERA: 4.01 xERA: 4.92
xwOBA: 0.308 xwOBA: 0.338
Pitcher Edge: MIN (Connor Prielipp)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIN SF Lg Avg
Record 74-84 65-93
R/Game 4.54 4.20 4.48
RA/Game 4.96 4.72 4.48
OPS 0.718 0.713 0.719
wOBA 0.310 0.304 0.310
ERA 4.58 4.36 4.17
FIP 4.09 4.11 4.03
WHIP 1.37 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.67 7.59 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.460 0.447 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIN SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 4.79 4.23
BP FIP 3.98 4.60 4.06
BP WHIP 1.44 1.51
BP K/9 9.11 6.77
BP Quality* 47.6 56.8 46.1
BP IP 568.0 490.3
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Carson Seymour (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trent Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9851 (Temp: 1.0037 | Wind: 0.9814)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIN 4.5 - SF 4.0
Simulated Avg: MIN 4.5 - SF 4.0
Win Probability: MIN 55.3% - SF 44.7%
Fair Moneyline: MIN -123 / SF +123
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 47.7%
Under 8.0: 42.9%
MIN -1.5: 38.7%
SF +1.5: 61.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIN 2.3 - SF 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: MIN 2.3 - SF 2.1
F5 Win Prob: MIN 52.5% - SF 47.5% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIN -111 / SF +111
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIN ML -158 -123 -6.0%
SF ML +130 +123 +1.3%
MIN -1.5 +108 +158 -9.4%
SF +1.5 -130 -158 +4.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -4.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Liberatore Home: Lake Bachar
ERA: 5.36 ERA: 3.56
WHIP: 1.49 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 8.92 K/9: 9.4
BB/9: 3.31 BB/9: 3.78
FIP: 4.57 FIP: 4.3
IP: 149.3 IP: 83.3
xERA: 5.02 xERA: 3.52
xwOBA: 0.341 xwOBA: 0.29
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL PIT Lg Avg
Record 76-81 80-77
R/Game 4.48 4.78 4.48
RA/Game 4.64 4.58 4.48
OPS 0.694 0.736 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.319 0.310
ERA 4.28 4.16 4.17
FIP 3.94 3.64 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.30 1.30
K/9 7.96 9.27 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.519 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 3.91 4.23
BP FIP 4.03 3.53 4.06
BP WHIP 1.38 1.33
BP K/9 8.34 9.56
BP Quality* 47.6 42.5 46.1
BP IP 560.3 502.0
Bullpen Edge: PIT (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PIT: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PIT (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0162 (Temp: 0.9857 | Wind: 1.0310)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.0 - PIT 5.4
Simulated Avg: STL 4.0 - PIT 5.4
Win Probability: STL 37.0% - PIT 63.0%
Fair Moneyline: STL +170 / PIT -170
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 7.0: 64.3%
Under 7.0: 27.3%
STL +1.5: 52.7%
PIT -1.5: 47.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.3 - PIT 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.2 - PIT 3.2
F5 Win Prob: STL 36.5% - PIT 63.5% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +174 / PIT -174
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +114 +170 -9.7%
PIT ML -137 -170 +5.2%
STL +1.5 -198 -112 -13.7%
PIT -1.5 +162 +112 +9.1%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +12.0%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -25.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01203
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Logan Henderson Home: Aaron Nola
ERA: 2.51 ERA: 4.49
WHIP: 0.81 WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 10.32 K/9: 9.04
BB/9: 1.54 BB/9: 3.1
FIP: 3.27 FIP: 4.75
IP: 93.3 IP: 168.3
xERA: 2.74 xERA: 4.12
xwOBA: 0.257 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Logan Henderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL PHI Lg Avg
Record 98-59 87-70
R/Game 5.13 4.48 4.48
RA/Game 3.86 4.28 4.48
OPS 0.742 0.709 0.719
wOBA 0.319 0.306 0.310
ERA 3.55 4.00 4.17
FIP 3.58 3.64 4.03
WHIP 1.19 1.28 1.30
K/9 9.61 9.85 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.628 0.521 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIL PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.53 4.30 4.23
BP FIP 3.63 3.66 4.06
BP WHIP 1.27 1.35
BP K/9 9.01 9.89
BP Quality* 44.1 47.2 46.1
BP IP 553.3 546.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Kyle Harrison (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Colton Gordon (70 pitches yesterday)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex McFarlane (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 28 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), wind out (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0339 (Temp: 0.9876 | Wind: 1.0468)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.6 - PHI 3.9
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.6 - PHI 3.9
Win Probability: MIL 65.4% - PHI 34.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -189 / PHI +189
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 7.5: 64.6%
Under 7.5: 35.4%
MIL -1.5: 50.6%
PHI +1.5: 49.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 3.2 - PHI 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.2 - PHI 1.9
F5 Win Prob: MIL 71.1% - PHI 28.9% (Tie: 14.7%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -246 / PHI +246
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIL ML -131 -189 +8.7%
PHI ML +109 +189 -13.3%
MIL -1.5 +135 -102 +8.0%
PHI +1.5 -164 +102 -12.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +12.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -17.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01204
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ian Seymour Home: Gerrit Cole
ERA: 4.38 ERA: 3.63
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 10.96 K/9: 9.12
BB/9: 2.54 BB/9: 1.63
FIP: 4.07 FIP: 3.87
IP: 127.3 IP: 121.3
xERA: 3.65 xERA: 3.84
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB NYY Lg Avg
Record 96-61 90-67
R/Game 4.54 4.56 4.48
RA/Game 3.99 3.71 4.48
OPS 0.729 0.718 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.67 3.21 4.17
FIP 3.89 3.57 4.03
WHIP 1.13 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.25 8.99 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.559 0.594 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.39 3.18 4.23
BP FIP 3.80 3.98 4.06
BP WHIP 1.10 1.21
BP K/9 8.81 8.10
BP Quality* 43.0 42.8 46.1
BP IP 443.3 551.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ty Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Kelly (2 of last 3 days)
NYY: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 25 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0357 (Temp: 0.9873 | Wind: 1.0491)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.2 - NYY 4.6
Simulated Avg: TB 4.2 - NYY 4.6
Win Probability: TB 46.3% - NYY 53.7%
Fair Moneyline: TB +116 / NYY -116
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 6.5: 68.3%
Under 6.5: 31.6%
TB +1.5: 62.5%
NYY -1.5: 37.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.4 - NYY 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.4 - NYY 2.5
F5 Win Prob: TB 46.6% - NYY 53.4% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +114 / NYY -114
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML +113 +116 -0.6%
NYY ML -136 -116 -3.9%
TB +1.5 -207 -167 -4.9%
NYY -1.5 +169 +167 +0.3%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +16.0%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -20.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 6.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.0%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01205
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Foster Griffin Home: Sonny Gray
ERA: 3.67 ERA: 2.82
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 8.15 K/9: 8.06
BB/9: 2.43 BB/9: 2.48
FIP: 3.89 FIP: 3.41
IP: 166.7 IP: 163.0
xERA: 4.35 xERA: 3.84
xwOBA: 0.32 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Sonny Gray)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE BOS Lg Avg
Record 82-75 84-73
R/Game 4.15 4.33 4.48
RA/Game 4.13 3.83 4.48
OPS 0.693 0.721 0.719
wOBA 0.301 0.310 0.310
ERA 3.77 3.59 4.17
FIP 3.66 3.53 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.60 8.78 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.502 0.556 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.60 3.42 4.23
BP FIP 3.49 3.49 4.06
BP WHIP 1.27 1.27
BP K/9 10.10 9.36
BP Quality* 43.5 40.0 46.1
BP IP 537.3 428.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 54°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 21 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (54°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0068 (Temp: 0.9786 | Wind: 1.0288)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 3.6 - BOS 4.5
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.6 - BOS 4.5
Win Probability: CLE 40.7% - BOS 59.3%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +146 / BOS -146
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 6.5: 62.8%
Under 6.5: 37.1%
CLE +1.5: 58.4%
BOS -1.5: 41.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.0 - BOS 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.0 - BOS 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CLE 41.3% - BOS 58.7% (Tie: 17.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +142 / BOS -142
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML +113 +146 -6.2%
BOS ML -137 -146 +1.5%
CLE +1.5 -199 -141 -8.1%
BOS -1.5 +163 +141 +3.5%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +10.5%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -15.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 6.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01206
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Andrew Abbott Home: Chris Sale
ERA: 4.7 ERA: 2.18
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 7.08 K/9: 10.89
BB/9: 4.25 BB/9: 1.78
FIP: 4.91 FIP: 2.02
IP: 159.0 IP: 157.0
xERA: 5.02 xERA: 3.06
xwOBA: 0.341 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN ATL Lg Avg
Record 73-84 92-65
R/Game 4.11 4.60 4.48
RA/Game 5.13 3.86 4.48
OPS 0.700 0.721 0.719
wOBA 0.303 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.86 3.62 4.17
FIP 4.65 3.97 4.03
WHIP 1.45 1.25 1.30
K/9 8.16 8.48 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.401 0.579 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.80 3.48 4.23
BP FIP 4.63 3.55 4.06
BP WHIP 1.46 1.20
BP K/9 8.73 9.16
BP Quality* 51.7 41.4 46.1
BP IP 586.3 424.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Owen Murphy (50 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0275 (Temp: 1.0005 | Wind: 1.0270)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.0 - ATL 5.7
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.0 - ATL 5.7
Win Probability: CIN 25.0% - ATL 75.0%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +300 / ATL -300
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 7.5: 57.8%
Under 7.5: 42.2%
CIN +1.5: 40.2%
ATL -1.5: 59.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 1.4 - ATL 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 1.4 - ATL 3.2
F5 Win Prob: CIN 20.7% - ATL 79.3% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +384 / ATL -384
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +213 +300 -7.0%
ATL ML -265 -300 +2.4%
CIN +1.5 -109 +149 -11.9%
ATL -1.5 -110 -149 +7.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +5.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -10.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Atlanta Braves -1.5 (Run Line) [-110]
Model: 59.8% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.4%
Fair ML: -149 | Kelly: 3.89%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01207
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Bryan Hudson Home: Seth Lugo
ERA: 3.03 ERA: 5.06
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.46
K/9: 8.13 K/9: 6.98
BB/9: 2.34 BB/9: 2.88
FIP: 3.07 FIP: 4.28
IP: 65.3 IP: 169.0
xERA: 3.1 xERA: 5.09
xwOBA: 0.273 xwOBA: 0.343
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Bryan Hudson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS KC Lg Avg
Record 81-76 67-90
R/Game 4.76 4.25 4.48
RA/Game 4.47 4.92 4.48
OPS 0.724 0.714 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.307 0.310
ERA 4.15 4.72 4.17
FIP 4.07 4.54 4.03
WHIP 1.32 1.40 1.30
K/9 8.33 7.45 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.528 0.434 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.08 5.84 4.23
BP FIP 4.33 5.19 4.06
BP WHIP 1.33 1.62
BP K/9 8.39 7.75
BP Quality* 51.5 62.1 46.1
BP IP 280.0 522.3
Bullpen Edge: CWS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Luis Castillo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tony Gonsolin (63 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Nolan Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0148 (Temp: 0.9981 | Wind: 1.0168)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 5.7 - KC 3.9
Simulated Avg: CWS 5.8 - KC 3.9
Win Probability: CWS 66.8% - KC 33.2%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -201 / KC +201
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 56.7%
Under 8.5: 43.3%
CWS -1.5: 51.9%
KC +1.5: 48.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 3.0 - KC 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 3.0 - KC 1.8
F5 Win Prob: CWS 70.3% - KC 29.7% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -237 / KC +237
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML -118 -201 +12.6%
KC ML -102 +201 -17.3%
CWS -1.5 +141 -108 +10.4%
KC +1.5 -171 +108 -15.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -9.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Chicago White Sox (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -118 | Edge: 12.6%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01208
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Gusto Home: Kevin Gausman
ERA: 4.14 ERA: 4.55
WHIP: 1.44 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 7.51 K/9: 9.26
BB/9: 2.83 BB/9: 2.41
FIP: 4.1 FIP: 3.73
IP: 82.7 IP: 172.0
xERA: 4.95 xERA: 4.01
xwOBA: 0.339 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Kevin Gausman)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA CHC Lg Avg
Record 77-80 87-70
R/Game 4.46 5.33 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 4.40 4.48
OPS 0.727 0.769 0.719
wOBA 0.314 0.331 0.310
ERA 4.13 4.17 4.17
FIP 4.00 4.51 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.33 7.86 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.502 0.587 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat MIA CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.57 4.54 4.23
BP FIP 3.97 4.58 4.06
BP WHIP 1.34 1.36
BP K/9 8.99 8.66
BP Quality* 46.9 54.1 46.1
BP IP 533.7 531.0
Bullpen Edge: MIA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Edward Cabrera (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Caleb Thielbar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Aaron Civale (30 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0149 (Temp: 0.9875 | Wind: 1.0277)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIA 4.8 - CHC 6.0
Simulated Avg: MIA 4.8 - CHC 6.0
Win Probability: MIA 40.2% - CHC 59.8%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +149 / CHC -149
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 6.5: 80.0%
Under 6.5: 20.0%
MIA +1.5: 54.6%
CHC -1.5: 45.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIA 2.5 - CHC 3.3
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.5 - CHC 3.3
F5 Win Prob: MIA 38.0% - CHC 62.1% (Tie: 14.3%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +164 / CHC -164
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
MIA ML +147 +149 -0.3%
CHC ML -179 -149 -4.4%
MIA +1.5 -157 -120 -6.5%
CHC -1.5 +129 +120 +1.8%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +27.7%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -32.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 6.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 27.7%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nolan McLean Home: Cody Bradford
ERA: 3.18 ERA: 4.19
WHIP: 1.19 WHIP: 1.5
K/9: 9.85 K/9: 4.66
BB/9: 3.6 BB/9: 2.33
FIP: 3.39 FIP: 4.19
IP: 172.7 IP: 38.7
xERA: 3.7 xERA: 5.16
xwOBA: 0.297 xwOBA: 0.345
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Nolan McLean)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM TEX Lg Avg
Record 72-85 78-79
R/Game 4.29 4.18 4.48
RA/Game 4.54 4.41 4.48
OPS 0.704 0.714 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.15 4.28 4.17
FIP 3.90 3.99 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.30 1.30
K/9 9.09 8.51 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.475 0.475 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.31 4.48 4.23
BP FIP 4.22 4.27 4.06
BP WHIP 1.31 1.39
BP K/9 9.43 8.40
BP Quality* 48.1 49.8 46.1
BP IP 319.7 544.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Kodai Senga (2 of last 3 days)
TEX: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Robert Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 91°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Hot (91°F), crosswind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0355 (Temp: 1.0291 | Wind: 1.0063)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 5.0 - TEX 4.3
Simulated Avg: NYM 5.0 - TEX 4.3
Win Probability: NYM 56.5% - TEX 43.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYM -130 / TEX +130
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 7.5: 63.3%
Under 7.5: 36.7%
NYM -1.5: 40.9%
TEX +1.5: 59.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.8 - TEX 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.8 - TEX 2.1
F5 Win Prob: NYM 61.1% - TEX 39.0% (Tie: 15.9%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -157 / TEX +157
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML -107 -130 +4.8%
TEX ML -112 +130 -9.3%
NYM -1.5 +158 +144 +2.2%
TEX +1.5 -192 -144 -6.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +10.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -15.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01209
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Merrill Kelly Home: Mason Adams
ERA: 5.0 ERA: 5.09
WHIP: 1.47 WHIP: 1.65
K/9: 6.38 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 3.96 BB/9: 4.7
FIP: 5.33 FIP: 6.06
IP: 156.7 IP: 23.0
xERA: 6.47 xERA: 5.84
xwOBA: 0.38 xwOBA: 0.364
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Merrill Kelly)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI COL Lg Avg
Record 83-74 57-100
R/Game 4.46 4.64 4.48
RA/Game 4.43 5.80 4.48
OPS 0.715 0.738 0.719
wOBA 0.306 0.317 0.310
ERA 4.09 5.58 4.17
FIP 4.19 4.71 4.03
WHIP 1.27 1.53 1.30
K/9 7.11 7.02 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.503 0.399 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.33 4.90 4.23
BP FIP 3.41 4.32 4.06
BP WHIP 1.17 1.51
BP K/9 7.89 7.75
BP Quality* 38.9 52.6 46.1
BP IP 495.0 321.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Zach Agnos (53 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9898 (Temp: 0.9983 | Wind: 0.9914)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 6.1 - COL 6.2
Simulated Avg: ARI 6.1 - COL 6.2
Win Probability: ARI 49.6% - COL 50.4%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +102 / COL -102
Avg Total Runs: 12.3
Over 11.5: 53.1%
Under 11.5: 46.9%
ARI -1.5: 37.0%
COL +1.5: 63.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 3.6 - COL 4.0
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 3.6 - COL 4.0
F5 Win Prob: ARI 44.9% - COL 55.1% (Tie: 11.6%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI +123 / COL -123
F5 Avg Total: 7.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -162 +102 -12.2%
COL ML +134 -102 +7.7%
ARI -1.5 -105 +170 -14.2%
COL +1.5 -114 -170 +9.7%
O 11.5 -110 N/A +0.8%
U 11.5 -110 N/A -5.5%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Colorado Rockies +1.5 (Run Line) [-114]
Model: 63.0% | Market: 53.3% | Edge: 9.7%
Fair ML: -170 | Kelly: 5.21%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01210
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Walbert Ureña Home: Jeffrey Springs
ERA: 2.74 ERA: 6.18
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 8.73 K/9: 7.09
BB/9: 4.18 BB/9: 3.64
FIP: 3.36 FIP: 5.84
IP: 144.3 IP: 138.3
xERA: 3.3 xERA: 4.82
xwOBA: 0.281 xwOBA: 0.335
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Walbert Ureña)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA ATH Lg Avg
Record 60-97 62-95
R/Game 4.03 4.32 4.48
RA/Game 4.59 5.73 4.48
OPS 0.678 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.295 0.310 0.310
ERA 4.24 5.45 4.17
FIP 3.91 4.72 4.03
WHIP 1.34 1.51 1.30
K/9 9.09 8.49 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.440 0.374 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.71 5.68 4.23
BP FIP 4.18 4.63 4.06
BP WHIP 1.43 1.60
BP K/9 9.11 9.01
BP Quality* 48.9 58.6 46.1
BP IP 422.0 605.3
Bullpen Edge: LAA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Seth Johnson (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9881 (Temp: 0.9989 | Wind: 0.9891)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 5.3 - ATH 4.0
Simulated Avg: LAA 5.2 - ATH 4.0
Win Probability: LAA 61.8% - ATH 38.2%
Fair Moneyline: LAA -162 / ATH +162
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 9.5: 44.6%
Under 9.5: 55.4%
LAA -1.5: 46.4%
ATH +1.5: 53.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 3.0 - ATH 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 3.0 - ATH 1.9
F5 Win Prob: LAA 67.9% - ATH 32.1% (Tie: 15.3%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -212 / ATH +212
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML -131 -162 +5.1%
ATH ML +109 +162 -9.7%
LAA -1.5 +118 +115 +0.5%
ATH +1.5 -143 -115 -5.3%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -7.8%
U 9.5 -110 N/A +3.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Robbie Ray Home: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
ERA: 3.6 ERA: 2.51
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 0.87
K/9: 7.65 K/9: 8.95
BB/9: 4.6 BB/9: 2.06
FIP: 4.7 FIP: 3.18
IP: 162.3 IP: 179.0
xERA: 4.79 xERA: 2.94
xwOBA: 0.334 xwOBA: 0.266
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Yoshinobu Yamamoto)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD LAD Lg Avg
Record 87-70 97-60
R/Game 4.39 5.01 4.48
RA/Game 4.18 3.74 4.48
OPS 0.716 0.765 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.328 0.310
ERA 3.96 3.59 4.17
FIP 4.06 3.62 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.15 1.30
K/9 8.25 9.46 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.523 0.631 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.74 3.98 4.23
BP FIP 2.97 3.74 4.06
BP WHIP 1.14 1.28
BP K/9 11.17 9.80
BP Quality* 35.5 43.1 46.1
BP IP 322.3 497.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Griffin Canning (42 pitches yesterday)
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9879 (Temp: 0.9958 | Wind: 0.9921)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.3 - LAD 4.6
Simulated Avg: SD 3.3 - LAD 4.6
Win Probability: SD 35.9% - LAD 64.1%
Fair Moneyline: SD +179 / LAD -179
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 8.0: 41.5%
Under 8.0: 48.6%
SD +1.5: 53.6%
LAD -1.5: 46.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 1.6 - LAD 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.6 - LAD 2.9
F5 Win Prob: SD 28.7% - LAD 71.3% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +249 / LAD -249
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +182 +179 +0.4%
LAD ML -224 -179 -5.0%
SD +1.5 -120 -116 -0.9%
LAD -1.5 +100 +116 -3.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -10.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -3.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | September 23, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ethan Pecko Home: George Kirby
ERA: 3.77 ERA: 4.24
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 5.97 K/9: 7.59
BB/9: 3.77 BB/9: 2.33
FIP: 5.3 FIP: 3.8
IP: 28.7 IP: 169.7
xERA: 4.82 xERA: 4.21
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: SEA (George Kirby)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU SEA Lg Avg
Record 78-79 73-84
R/Game 4.43 4.04 4.48
RA/Game 4.76 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.725 0.691 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.50 4.21 4.17
FIP 4.37 3.86 4.03
WHIP 1.34 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.84 8.69 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.457 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 4.38 4.23
BP FIP 4.27 4.15 4.06
BP WHIP 1.27 1.37
BP K/9 8.94 8.65
BP Quality* 49.1 48.6 46.1
BP IP 528.3 516.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Miguel Ullola (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Eduard Bazardo (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 54°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (54°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9981 (Temp: 0.9788 | Wind: 1.0198)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 4.1 - SEA 4.0
Simulated Avg: HOU 4.1 - SEA 4.0
Win Probability: HOU 50.8% - SEA 49.2%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -103 / SEA +103
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 52.5%
Under 7.5: 47.4%
HOU +1.5: 68.0%
SEA -1.5: 32.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.2 - SEA 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.2 - SEA 2.1
F5 Win Prob: HOU 51.1% - SEA 48.9% (Tie: 17.8%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -104 / SEA +104
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML +105 -103 +2.0%
SEA ML -127 +103 -6.8%
HOU +1.5 -187 -212 +2.8%
SEA -1.5 +154 +212 -7.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -4.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================