2026-09-24
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-24
Games: 12 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Regular Season | September 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kyle Leahy Home: Paul Skenes
ERA: 3.65 ERA: 3.91
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 8.41 K/9: 10.29
BB/9: 2.67 BB/9: 2.52
FIP: 3.53 FIP: 3.12
IP: 138.0 IP: 168.0
xERA: 4.88 xERA: 3.27
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.28
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Paul Skenes)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL PIT Lg Avg
Record 77-81 80-78
R/Game 4.49 4.75 4.48
RA/Game 4.62 4.58 4.48
OPS 0.695 0.735 0.718
wOBA 0.301 0.319 0.309
ERA 4.26 4.17 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.63 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.30 1.30
K/9 7.96 9.27 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.487 0.517 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL PIT Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.52 3.89 4.21
BP FIP 4.02 3.51 4.05
BP WHIP 1.37 1.33
BP K/9 8.33 9.55
BP Quality* 47.3 45.3 46.0
BP IP 563.7 508.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Khristian Curtis (71 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Antwone Kelly (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joshua Báez, Everson Pereira, José Fermín
Joshua Báez Outfielder OPS: 0.788 (100 AB)
Everson Pereira Outfielder OPS: 0.748 (98 AB)
José Fermín Outfielder OPS: 0.680 (319 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.9% of full strength
PIT (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Rafael Flores Jr., Esmerlyn Valdez, Endy Rodríguez, Bryan Reynolds
Rafael Flores Jr. Catcher OPS: 0.871 (140 AB)
Esmerlyn Valdez Outfielder OPS: 0.855 (241 AB)
Endy Rodríguez Catcher OPS: 0.840 (135 AB)
Bryan Reynolds Outfielder OPS: 0.786 (587 AB)
Run Adjustment: 86.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: PNC Park
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0293 (Temp: 0.9880 | Wind: 1.0418)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 3.7 - PIT 4.2
Simulated Avg: STL 3.7 - PIT 4.2
Win Probability: STL 43.8% - PIT 56.2%
Fair Moneyline: STL +128 / PIT -128
Avg Total Runs: 7.9
Over 7.0: 50.7%
Under 7.0: 39.2%
STL +1.5: 61.6%
PIT -1.5: 38.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 1.9 - PIT 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 1.9 - PIT 2.3
F5 Win Prob: STL 43.1% - PIT 56.9% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +132 / PIT -132
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +137 +128 +1.6%
PIT ML -166 -128 -6.2%
STL +1.5 -174 -160 -1.9%
PIT -1.5 +143 +160 -2.7%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -1.7%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -13.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | September 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: David Sandlin Home: Randy Dobnak
ERA: 6.29 ERA: 3.08
WHIP: 1.28 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 8.65 K/9: 5.92
BB/9: 3.41 BB/9: 3.08
FIP: 4.59 FIP: 4.06
IP: 34.3 IP: 73.0
xERA: 4.06 xERA: 4.62
xwOBA: 0.31 xwOBA: 0.329
Pitcher Edge: KC (Randy Dobnak)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS KC Lg Avg
Record 81-77 68-90
R/Game 4.75 4.25 4.48
RA/Game 4.47 4.91 4.48
OPS 0.723 0.715 0.718
wOBA 0.312 0.307 0.309
ERA 4.15 4.72 4.17
FIP 4.06 4.52 4.03
WHIP 1.32 1.40 1.30
K/9 8.32 7.45 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.528 0.435 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.07 5.78 4.21
BP FIP 4.29 5.15 4.05
BP WHIP 1.33 1.61
BP K/9 8.40 7.74
BP Quality* 49.8 58.7 46.0
BP IP 283.0 528.0
Bullpen Edge: CWS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Hagen Smith (33 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Erick Fedde (64 pitches yesterday)
KC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Randal Grichuk, Joey Bart
Randal Grichuk Unknown OPS: 0.885 (255 AB)
Joey Bart Catcher OPS: 0.662 (112 AB)
Run Adjustment: 95.0% of full strength
KC (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Jac Caglianone, Tyler Tolbert, Maikel Garcia
Jac Caglianone Outfielder OPS: 0.820 (499 AB)
Tyler Tolbert Unknown OPS: 0.762 (126 AB)
Maikel Garcia Third Base OPS: 0.703 (304 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.9% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0130 (Temp: 1.0068 | Wind: 1.0062)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.8 - KC 4.6
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.8 - KC 4.5
Win Probability: CWS 52.3% - KC 47.7%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -110 / KC +110
Avg Total Runs: 9.4
Over 9.0: 45.8%
Under 9.0: 45.1%
CWS -1.5: 37.0%
KC +1.5: 63.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.4 - KC 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.4 - KC 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CWS 47.2% - KC 52.8% (Tie: 16.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +112 / KC -112
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML -135 -110 -5.1%
KC ML +112 +110 +0.5%
CWS -1.5 +124 +170 -7.6%
KC +1.5 -150 -170 +3.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -6.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -7.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs
Regular Season | September 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Phillips Home: Matthew Boyd
ERA: 3.45 ERA: 4.06
WHIP: 1.31 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 7.26 K/9: 6.99
BB/9: 3.82 BB/9: 2.78
FIP: 4.56 FIP: 4.1
IP: 122.7 IP: 119.7
xERA: 4.66 xERA: 4.72
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.332
Pitcher Edge: CHC (Matthew Boyd)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIA CHC Lg Avg
Record 78-80 87-71
R/Game 4.45 5.31 4.48
RA/Game 4.42 4.39 4.48
OPS 0.727 0.769 0.718
wOBA 0.314 0.331 0.309
ERA 4.11 4.17 4.17
FIP 3.99 4.50 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.34 7.87 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.503 0.586 0.500
Park Factor 104 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIA CHC Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.55 4.54 4.21
BP FIP 3.95 4.57 4.05
BP WHIP 1.33 1.37
BP K/9 9.01 8.68
BP Quality* 51.2 54.1 46.0
BP IP 536.3 533.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Ryan Rolison (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Jacob Webb (31 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CHC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Wrigley Field
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0094 (Temp: 0.9906 | Wind: 1.0189)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIA 5.0 - CHC 6.1
Simulated Avg: MIA 5.0 - CHC 6.0
Win Probability: MIA 41.3% - CHC 58.7%
Fair Moneyline: MIA +142 / CHC -142
Avg Total Runs: 11.1
Over 7.0: 74.6%
Under 7.0: 19.0%
MIA +1.5: 55.3%
CHC -1.5: 44.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIA 2.6 - CHC 3.2
F5 Simulated Avg: MIA 2.7 - CHC 3.2
F5 Win Prob: MIA 41.9% - CHC 58.1% (Tie: 14.3%)
F5 Fair ML: MIA +139 / CHC -139
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIA ML +169 +142 +4.1%
CHC ML -207 -142 -8.7%
MIA +1.5 -132 -124 -1.6%
CHC -1.5 +109 +124 -3.1%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +22.2%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -33.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 22.2%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Texas Rangers
Regular Season | September 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Zac Thornton Home: Kumar Rocker
ERA: 3.4 ERA: 4.47
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 6.69 K/9: 8.43
BB/9: 1.93 BB/9: 3.71
FIP: 4.39 FIP: 4.28
IP: 79.3 IP: 143.0
xERA: 4.62 xERA: 4.59
xwOBA: 0.329 xwOBA: 0.328
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM TEX Lg Avg
Record 73-85 78-80
R/Game 4.31 4.16 4.48
RA/Game 4.52 4.43 4.48
OPS 0.704 0.712 0.718
wOBA 0.304 0.307 0.309
ERA 4.14 4.30 4.17
FIP 3.89 4.02 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.30 1.30
K/9 9.07 8.50 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.478 0.472 0.500
Park Factor 106 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM TEX Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.28 4.54 4.21
BP FIP 4.20 4.32 4.05
BP WHIP 1.31 1.39
BP K/9 9.40 8.44
BP Quality* 46.4 48.7 46.0
BP IP 321.7 547.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TEX: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TEX (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Globe Life Field
Temperature: 92°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (92°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0262 (Temp: 1.0308 | Wind: 0.9956)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 4.9 - TEX 4.7
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.9 - TEX 4.7
Win Probability: NYM 51.5% - TEX 48.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYM -106 / TEX +106
Avg Total Runs: 9.5
Over 8.0: 56.1%
Under 8.0: 34.9%
NYM +1.5: 66.9%
TEX -1.5: 33.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 2.7 - TEX 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.8 - TEX 2.6
F5 Win Prob: NYM 52.7% - TEX 47.3% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -112 / TEX +112
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML +112 -106 +4.4%
TEX ML -135 +106 -9.0%
NYM +1.5 -194 -202 +0.9%
TEX -1.5 +159 +202 -5.5%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +3.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -17.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Regular Season | September 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Eduardo Rodriguez Home: Tanner Gordon
ERA: 2.89 ERA: 6.01
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.55
K/9: 6.86 K/9: 7.53
BB/9: 3.04 BB/9: 1.79
FIP: 3.86 FIP: 4.49
IP: 183.7 IP: 100.3
xERA: 4.29 xERA: 4.82
xwOBA: 0.318 xwOBA: 0.335
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Eduardo Rodriguez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ARI COL Lg Avg
Record 84-74 57-101
R/Game 4.46 4.63 4.48
RA/Game 4.42 5.80 4.48
OPS 0.715 0.737 0.718
wOBA 0.306 0.317 0.309
ERA 4.08 5.55 4.17
FIP 4.19 4.70 4.03
WHIP 1.27 1.52 1.30
K/9 7.10 7.04 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.504 0.399 0.500
Park Factor 115 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ARI COL Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.32 4.88 4.21
BP FIP 3.43 4.33 4.05
BP WHIP 1.17 1.51
BP K/9 7.89 7.73
BP Quality* 40.5 51.1 46.0
BP IP 498.7 324.7
Bullpen Edge: ARI (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ARI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
COL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
COL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Coors Field
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 3%
Conditions: Mild (75°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9955 (Temp: 1.0042 | Wind: 0.9914)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ARI 5.8 - COL 4.8
Simulated Avg: ARI 5.8 - COL 4.9
Win Probability: ARI 58.4% - COL 41.6%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -141 / COL +141
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 10.0: 48.4%
Under 10.0: 43.5%
ARI -1.5: 44.5%
COL +1.5: 55.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ARI 3.4 - COL 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 3.3 - COL 2.7
F5 Win Prob: ARI 59.2% - COL 40.8% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -145 / COL +145
F5 Avg Total: 6.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ARI ML -198 -141 -8.0%
COL ML +162 +141 +3.4%
ARI -1.5 -122 +125 -10.5%
COL +1.5 +102 -125 +6.0%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -3.9%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | September 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Andrew Painter
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PHI Lg Avg
Record 99-59 87-71
R/Game 5.13 4.46 4.48
RA/Game 3.84 4.28 4.48
OPS 0.741 0.709 0.718
wOBA 0.319 0.305 0.309
ERA 3.53 4.00 4.17
FIP 3.58 3.64 4.03
WHIP 1.19 1.28 1.30
K/9 9.59 9.86 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.629 0.519 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.50 4.28 4.21
BP FIP 3.62 3.65 4.05
BP WHIP 1.26 1.34
BP K/9 9.01 9.89
BP Quality* 42.4 44.0 46.0
BP IP 557.3 549.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: DL Hall (36 pitches yesterday)
PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0207 (Temp: 0.9878 | Wind: 1.0334)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: MIL 5.7 - PHI 4.6
Simulated Avg: MIL 5.7 - PHI 4.6
Win Probability: MIL 58.8% - PHI 41.2%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -143 / PHI +143
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 8.0: 61.9%
Under 8.0: 30.1%
MIL +1.5: 72.4%
PHI -1.5: 27.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: MIL 3.4 - PHI 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 3.4 - PHI 2.6
F5 Win Prob: MIL 60.9% - PHI 39.1% (Tie: 13.5%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -156 / PHI +156
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML +113 -143 +11.9%
PHI ML -136 +143 -16.4%
MIL +1.5 -193 -263 +6.6%
PHI -1.5 +158 +263 -11.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +9.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -22.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: +113 | Edge: 11.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01211
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | September 24, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Daniel Espino Home: Ranger Suarez
ERA: 4.73 ERA: 3.27
WHIP: 1.43 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 14.85 K/9: 8.48
BB/9: 4.73 BB/9: 2.83
FIP: 4.3 FIP: 2.97
IP: 13.3 IP: 143.3
xERA: 3.54 xERA: 3.73
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Ranger Suarez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE BOS Lg Avg
Record 82-76 85-73
R/Game 4.13 4.31 4.48
RA/Game 4.11 3.80 4.48
OPS 0.691 0.721 0.718
wOBA 0.300 0.310 0.309
ERA 3.75 3.56 4.17
FIP 3.65 3.52 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.61 8.78 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.501 0.557 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.59 3.40 4.21
BP FIP 3.48 3.47 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.27
BP K/9 10.11 9.42
BP Quality* 42.0 39.9 46.0
BP IP 539.3 431.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 55°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (55°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0066 (Temp: 0.9800 | Wind: 1.0272)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 3.5 - BOS 4.5
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.5 - BOS 4.5
Win Probability: CLE 39.9% - BOS 60.1%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +151 / BOS -151
Avg Total Runs: 8.0
Over 7.0: 51.8%
Under 7.0: 38.3%
CLE +1.5: 57.6%
BOS -1.5: 42.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 1.9 - BOS 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.9 - BOS 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CLE 38.7% - BOS 61.3% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +158 / BOS -158
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML +108 +151 -8.2%
BOS ML -131 -151 +3.4%
CLE +1.5 -207 -136 -9.8%
BOS -1.5 +169 +136 +5.2%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -0.6%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -14.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | September 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ian Seymour Home: Cam Schlittler
ERA: 4.38 ERA: 1.94
WHIP: 1.17 WHIP: 0.91
K/9: 10.96 K/9: 11.05
BB/9: 2.54 BB/9: 2.22
FIP: 4.07 FIP: 2.48
IP: 127.3 IP: 190.7
xERA: 3.65 xERA: 2.85
xwOBA: 0.295 xwOBA: 0.262
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB NYY Lg Avg
Record 96-62 91-67
R/Game 4.53 4.59 4.48
RA/Game 4.03 3.70 4.48
OPS 0.727 0.721 0.718
wOBA 0.311 0.309 0.309
ERA 3.71 3.21 4.17
FIP 3.92 3.57 4.03
WHIP 1.13 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.28 8.99 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.553 0.598 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.40 3.16 4.21
BP FIP 3.80 3.97 4.05
BP WHIP 1.10 1.21
BP K/9 8.83 8.06
BP Quality* 40.0 44.2 46.0
BP IP 445.3 554.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 23 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), wind out (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0171 (Temp: 0.9860 | Wind: 1.0316)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 3.4 - NYY 4.4
Simulated Avg: TB 3.4 - NYY 4.4
Win Probability: TB 38.4% - NYY 61.6%
Fair Moneyline: TB +161 / NYY -161
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 6.0: 59.3%
Under 6.0: 30.9%
TB +1.5: 56.6%
NYY -1.5: 43.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 1.5 - NYY 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 1.5 - NYY 2.5
F5 Win Prob: TB 31.0% - NYY 69.0% (Tie: 17.5%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +223 / NYY -223
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML +129 +161 -5.3%
NYY ML -156 -161 +0.7%
TB +1.5 -186 -130 -8.4%
NYY -1.5 +153 +130 +3.9%
O 6.0 -110 N/A +6.9%
U 6.0 -110 N/A -21.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | September 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brady Singer Home: Tyler Mahle
ERA: 5.67 ERA: 3.81
WHIP: 1.56 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 7.31 K/9: 8.31
BB/9: 3.51 BB/9: 2.75
FIP: 5.26 FIP: 3.79
IP: 154.0 IP: 144.0
xERA: 5.72 xERA: 3.89
xwOBA: 0.361 xwOBA: 0.304
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Tyler Mahle)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN ATL Lg Avg
Record 73-85 93-65
R/Game 4.10 4.59 4.48
RA/Game 5.11 3.85 4.48
OPS 0.699 0.722 0.718
wOBA 0.302 0.310 0.309
ERA 4.84 3.60 4.17
FIP 4.65 3.96 4.03
WHIP 1.44 1.24 1.30
K/9 8.16 8.52 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.400 0.580 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.79 3.47 4.21
BP FIP 4.63 3.54 4.05
BP WHIP 1.46 1.19
BP K/9 8.73 9.18
BP Quality* 51.7 39.8 46.0
BP IP 588.7 427.7
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0165 (Temp: 0.9936 | Wind: 1.0230)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.7 - ATL 6.0
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.7 - ATL 6.0
Win Probability: CIN 29.7% - ATL 70.3%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +237 / ATL -237
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 7.5: 66.3%
Under 7.5: 33.7%
CIN +1.5: 44.6%
ATL -1.5: 55.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.1 - ATL 3.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.1 - ATL 3.5
F5 Win Prob: CIN 29.7% - ATL 70.3% (Tie: 13.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +236 / ATL -236
F5 Avg Total: 5.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +183 +237 -5.6%
ATL ML -225 -237 +1.1%
CIN +1.5 -120 +124 -10.0%
ATL -1.5 +100 -124 +5.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +13.9%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -18.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01212
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Athletics
Regular Season | September 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Peter Lambert Home: Mason Barnett
ERA: 3.7 ERA: 7.16
WHIP: 1.23 WHIP: 1.75
K/9: 8.76 K/9: 8.59
BB/9: 3.4 BB/9: 5.73
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 6.65
IP: 151.0 IP: 44.0
xERA: 3.67 xERA: 5.39
xwOBA: 0.296 xwOBA: 0.352
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Peter Lambert)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU ATH Lg Avg
Record 78-80 63-95
R/Game 4.43 4.34 4.48
RA/Game 4.77 5.72 4.48
OPS 0.726 0.722 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.311 0.309
ERA 4.50 5.43 4.17
FIP 4.37 4.72 4.03
WHIP 1.34 1.50 1.30
K/9 8.83 8.50 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.467 0.377 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.12 5.64 4.21
BP FIP 4.26 4.61 4.05
BP WHIP 1.28 1.60
BP K/9 8.92 9.03
BP Quality* 53.6 59.9 46.0
BP IP 535.0 610.0
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
UNAVAIL: Logan VanWey (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Josh Hader (44 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Josh Hendrickson (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: Hogan Harris (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9817 (Temp: 0.9929 | Wind: 0.9887)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 6.3 - ATH 4.5
Simulated Avg: HOU 6.3 - ATH 4.4
Win Probability: HOU 65.6% - ATH 34.4%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -191 / ATH +191
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 10.5: 48.9%
Under 10.5: 51.1%
HOU -1.5: 52.0%
ATH +1.5: 48.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 3.7 - ATH 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 3.7 - ATH 2.2
F5 Win Prob: HOU 71.6% - ATH 28.4% (Tie: 13.0%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -252 / ATH +252
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML -167 -191 +3.1%
ATH ML +138 +191 -7.7%
HOU -1.5 -106 -109 +0.6%
ATH +1.5 -114 +109 -5.3%
O 10.5 -110 N/A -3.5%
U 10.5 -110 N/A -1.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | September 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Grayson Rodriguez Home: Bryan Woo
ERA: 5.96 ERA: 3.92
WHIP: 1.54 WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 7.98 K/9: 8.96
BB/9: 3.65 BB/9: 1.93
FIP: 4.63 FIP: 3.15
IP: 93.7 IP: 167.7
xERA: 5.57 xERA: 3.59
xwOBA: 0.357 xwOBA: 0.293
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Bryan Woo)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SEA Lg Avg
Record 60-98 74-84
R/Game 4.02 4.05 4.48
RA/Game 4.61 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.679 0.690 0.718
wOBA 0.295 0.301 0.309
ERA 4.26 4.20 4.17
FIP 3.92 3.86 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.26 1.30
K/9 9.07 8.71 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.438 0.458 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.71 4.33 4.21
BP FIP 4.17 4.11 4.05
BP WHIP 1.43 1.36
BP K/9 9.08 8.70
BP Quality* 56.3 51.2 46.0
BP IP 426.0 521.3
Bullpen Edge: SEA (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mitch Farris (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Luke Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blake Weiman (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
UNAVAIL: José A. Ferrer (B2B, 29 pitches)
TIRED: Carlos Vargas (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 55°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 26%
Conditions: Cool (55°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0005 (Temp: 0.9800 | Wind: 1.0209)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 3.5 - SEA 4.9
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.5 - SEA 4.8
Win Probability: LAA 36.4% - SEA 63.5%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +174 / SEA -174
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.0: 55.2%
Under 7.0: 35.2%
LAA +1.5: 53.5%
SEA -1.5: 46.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 1.7 - SEA 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.8 - SEA 2.7
F5 Win Prob: LAA 33.3% - SEA 66.7% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +200 / SEA -200
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +177 +174 +0.3%
SEA ML -218 -174 -5.0%
LAA +1.5 -126 -115 -2.3%
SEA -1.5 +105 +115 -2.2%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +2.8%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -17.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | September 24, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nick Pivetta Home: Tyler Glasnow
ERA: 3.3 ERA: 3.46
WHIP: 1.0 WHIP: 0.96
K/9: 10.5 K/9: 11.57
BB/9: 2.1 BB/9: 3.06
FIP: 2.33 FIP: 2.89
IP: 30.0 IP: 67.7
xERA: 2.92 xERA: 2.94
xwOBA: 0.265 xwOBA: 0.266
Pitcher Edge: SD (Nick Pivetta)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD LAD Lg Avg
Record 88-70 97-61
R/Game 4.40 4.99 4.48
RA/Game 4.16 3.75 4.48
OPS 0.716 0.765 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.328 0.309
ERA 3.94 3.59 4.17
FIP 4.05 3.62 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.15 1.30
K/9 8.25 9.43 8.49
Pythag Win% 0.526 0.628 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat SD LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.71 3.99 4.21
BP FIP 2.98 3.74 4.05
BP WHIP 1.15 1.28
BP K/9 11.13 9.78
BP Quality* 35.6 46.2 46.0
BP IP 326.0 499.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (37 pitches yesterday)
LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Blake Treinen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9932 (Temp: 0.9972 | Wind: 0.9959)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: SD 3.5 - LAD 3.5
Simulated Avg: SD 3.5 - LAD 3.5
Win Probability: SD 50.3% - LAD 49.7%
Fair Moneyline: SD -101 / LAD +101
Avg Total Runs: 7.0
Over 8.0: 31.6%
Under 8.0: 58.6%
SD +1.5: 69.0%
LAD -1.5: 31.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: SD 1.7 - LAD 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.7 - LAD 1.8
F5 Win Prob: SD 48.1% - LAD 51.9% (Tie: 20.8%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +108 / LAD -108
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
SD ML +144 -101 +9.3%
LAD ML -174 +101 -13.8%
SD +1.5 -155 -223 +8.3%
LAD -1.5 +128 +223 -12.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -20.8%
U 8.0 -110 N/A +6.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] San Diego Padres +1.5 (Run Line) [-155]
Model: 69.0% | Market: 60.8% | Edge: 8.3%
Fair ML: -223 | Kelly: 5.26%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01213