2026-09-25
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-25
Games: 17 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Clay Holmes Home: Alec Gamboa
ERA: 3.25 ERA: 1.16
WHIP: 1.16 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 6.96 K/9: 6.39
BB/9: 3.62 BB/9: 2.9
FIP: 3.56 FIP: 3.07
IP: 97.0 IP: 31.0
xERA: 3.89 xERA: 2.81
xwOBA: 0.304 xwOBA: 0.26
Pitcher Edge: BOS (Alec Gamboa)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC BOS Lg Avg
Record 88-71 85-74
R/Game 5.29 4.28 4.47
RA/Game 4.37 3.79 4.47
OPS 0.768 0.718 0.718
wOBA 0.330 0.309 0.309
ERA 4.15 3.55 4.17
FIP 4.49 3.52 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.23 1.30
K/9 7.84 8.78 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.586 0.556 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.39 3.38 4.21
BP FIP 4.59 3.46 4.05
BP WHIP 1.34 1.26
BP K/9 8.69 9.40
BP Quality* 53.5 41.2 46.0
BP IP 508.7 434.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Daniel Palencia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Michael Conforto, Ian Happ, Pedro Ramírez
Michael Conforto Designated Hitter OPS: 0.807 (262 AB)
Ian Happ Outfielder OPS: 0.749 (537 AB)
Pedro Ramírez Second Base OPS: 0.725 (234 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.3% of full strength
BOS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Willson Contreras, Curtis Mead, Ceddanne Rafaela, Masataka Yoshida, Anthony Seigler
Willson Contreras First Base OPS: 0.905 (446 AB)
Curtis Mead Second Base OPS: 0.851 (285 AB)
Ceddanne Rafaela Outfielder OPS: 0.760 (539 AB)
Masataka Yoshida Designated Hitter OPS: 0.746 (263 AB)
Anthony Seigler Second Base OPS: 0.727 (150 AB)
Run Adjustment: 86.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 32 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), wind out (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0397 (Temp: 0.9866 | Wind: 1.0539)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 3.8 - BOS 4.0
Simulated Avg: CHC 3.8 - BOS 4.0
Win Probability: CHC 47.2% - BOS 52.8%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +112 / BOS -112
Avg Total Runs: 7.8
Over 6.5: 60.4%
Under 6.5: 39.6%
CHC -1.5: 30.3%
BOS +1.5: 69.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 1.8 - BOS 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 1.8 - BOS 1.9
F5 Win Prob: CHC 46.6% - BOS 53.4% (Tie: 19.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +115 / BOS -115
F5 Avg Total: 3.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -126 +112 -8.6%
BOS ML +105 -112 +4.0%
CHC -1.5 +140 +230 -11.4%
BOS +1.5 -169 -230 +6.9%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +8.0%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -12.7%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 6.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.4% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.0%
Fair ML: -152 | Kelly: 4.18%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01214
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox (Game 2)
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: David Peterson Home: Brayan Bello
ERA: 4.96 ERA: 4.49
WHIP: 1.51 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 8.23 K/9: 7.21
BB/9: 3.96 BB/9: 2.8
FIP: 3.95 FIP: 3.82
IP: 143.3 IP: 112.3
xERA: 4.78 xERA: 4.98
xwOBA: 0.334 xwOBA: 0.34
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC BOS Lg Avg
Record 88-71 85-74
R/Game 5.29 4.28 4.47
RA/Game 4.37 3.79 4.47
OPS 0.768 0.718 0.718
wOBA 0.330 0.309 0.309
ERA 4.15 3.55 4.17
FIP 4.49 3.52 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.23 1.30
K/9 7.84 8.78 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.586 0.556 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CHC BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.39 3.38 4.21
BP FIP 4.59 3.46 4.05
BP WHIP 1.34 1.26
BP K/9 8.69 9.40
BP Quality* 58.0 42.7 46.0
BP IP 508.7 434.7
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Daniel Palencia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Zeferjahn (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Rolison (2 of last 3 days)
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Erik Miller (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Michael Conforto, Ian Happ, Pedro Ramírez
Michael Conforto Designated Hitter OPS: 0.807 (262 AB)
Ian Happ Outfielder OPS: 0.749 (537 AB)
Pedro Ramírez Second Base OPS: 0.725 (234 AB)
Run Adjustment: 93.3% of full strength
BOS (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Willson Contreras, Curtis Mead, Ceddanne Rafaela, Masataka Yoshida, Anthony Seigler
Willson Contreras First Base OPS: 0.905 (446 AB)
Curtis Mead Second Base OPS: 0.851 (285 AB)
Ceddanne Rafaela Outfielder OPS: 0.760 (539 AB)
Masataka Yoshida Designated Hitter OPS: 0.746 (263 AB)
Anthony Seigler Second Base OPS: 0.727 (150 AB)
Run Adjustment: 86.0% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 32 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), wind out (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0397 (Temp: 0.9866 | Wind: 1.0539)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 5.3 - BOS 4.7
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.3 - BOS 4.7
Win Probability: CHC 54.9% - BOS 45.1%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -122 / BOS +122
Avg Total Runs: 10.0
Over 6.5: 75.9%
Under 6.5: 24.1%
CHC -1.5: 39.9%
BOS +1.5: 60.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 3.1 - BOS 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.2 - BOS 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CHC 60.7% - BOS 39.3% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -155 / BOS +155
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -115 -122 +1.4%
BOS ML -105 +122 -6.1%
CHC -1.5 +154 +151 +0.5%
BOS +1.5 -187 -151 -5.1%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +23.5%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -28.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 6.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 23.5%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brandon Young Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYY Lg Avg
Record 78-81 92-67
R/Game 4.43 4.60 4.47
RA/Game 4.60 3.70 4.47
OPS 0.707 0.721 0.718
wOBA 0.306 0.310 0.309
ERA 4.08 3.20 4.17
FIP 3.96 3.57 4.03
WHIP 1.34 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.13 8.99 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.483 0.598 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.97 3.16 4.21
BP FIP 3.64 3.96 4.05
BP WHIP 1.30 1.21
BP K/9 8.82 8.05
BP Quality* 43.0 50.2 46.0
BP IP 530.7 558.7
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Michael Fulmer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gil (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bradley Hanner (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 17 mph (gusts 32 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), strong wind out (17 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0623 (Temp: 0.9993 | Wind: 1.0630)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.8 - NYY 4.9
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.8 - NYY 4.9
Win Probability: BAL 48.8% - NYY 51.2%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +105 / NYY -105
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
BAL -1.5: 34.0%
BAL +1.5: 64.3%
NYY -1.5: 35.7%
NYY +1.5: 66.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.6 - NYY 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.6 - NYY 2.8
F5 Win Prob: BAL 47.5% - NYY 52.5% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +110 / NYY -110
F5 Avg Total: 5.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (Game 2)
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Trevor Rogers Home: Brendan Beck
ERA: 4.07 ERA: 8.22
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 1.57
K/9: 8.31 K/9: 5.87
BB/9: 2.12 BB/9: 5.87
FIP: 3.45 FIP: 10.5
IP: 165.7 IP: 7.7
xERA: 3.54 xERA: 9.1
xwOBA: 0.291 xwOBA: 0.435
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Trevor Rogers)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYY Lg Avg
Record 78-81 92-67
R/Game 4.43 4.60 4.47
RA/Game 4.60 3.70 4.47
OPS 0.707 0.721 0.718
wOBA 0.306 0.310 0.309
ERA 4.08 3.20 4.17
FIP 3.96 3.57 4.03
WHIP 1.34 1.16 1.30
K/9 8.13 8.99 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.483 0.598 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.97 3.16 4.21
BP FIP 3.64 3.96 4.05
BP WHIP 1.30 1.21
BP K/9 8.82 8.05
BP Quality* 43.0 59.2 46.0
BP IP 530.7 558.7
Bullpen Edge: BAL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Michael Fulmer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Gil (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bradley Hanner (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Tim Hill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Bednar (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: John Schreiber (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 71°F
Wind: 17 mph (gusts 32 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Mild (71°F), strong wind out (17 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0623 (Temp: 0.9993 | Wind: 1.0630)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 5.2 - NYY 4.5
Simulated Avg: BAL 5.2 - NYY 4.5
Win Probability: BAL 56.4% - NYY 43.6%
Fair Moneyline: BAL -129 / NYY +129
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
BAL -1.5: 41.4%
BAL +1.5: 71.1%
NYY -1.5: 28.9%
NYY +1.5: 58.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.6 - NYY 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.6 - NYY 2.4
F5 Win Prob: BAL 53.4% - NYY 46.6% (Tie: 16.0%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL -115 / NYY +115
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Bubba Chandler Home: Jackson Jobe
ERA: 4.34 ERA: 3.98
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 8.21 K/9: 9.52
BB/9: 4.52 BB/9: 3.1
FIP: 4.07 FIP: 4.25
IP: 151.3 IP: 40.7
xERA: 4.23 xERA: 4.11
xwOBA: 0.316 xwOBA: 0.312
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PIT DET Lg Avg
Record 81-78 74-85
R/Game 4.74 4.46 4.47
RA/Game 4.56 4.01 4.47
OPS 0.735 0.720 0.718
wOBA 0.319 0.311 0.309
ERA 4.15 3.65 4.17
FIP 3.62 3.85 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.22 1.30
K/9 9.30 8.19 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.517 0.548 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PIT DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.88 4.17 4.21
BP FIP 3.50 4.38 4.05
BP WHIP 1.33 1.30
BP K/9 9.56 8.26
BP Quality* 45.3 48.7 46.0
BP IP 510.3 484.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tyler Kinley (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0153 (Temp: 0.9905 | Wind: 1.0250)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PIT 4.8 - DET 4.6
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.8 - DET 4.6
Win Probability: PIT 51.7% - DET 48.3%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -107 / DET +107
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.0: 54.4%
Under 8.0: 36.7%
PIT -1.5: 36.4%
DET +1.5: 63.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 2.6 - DET 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 2.6 - DET 2.5
F5 Win Prob: PIT 51.0% - DET 49.0% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -104 / DET +104
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PIT ML -110 -107 -0.7%
DET ML -109 +107 -3.8%
PIT -1.5 +151 +175 -3.5%
DET +1.5 -183 -175 -1.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +2.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -15.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Freddy Peralta Home: Cristopher Sánchez
ERA: 4.56 ERA: 2.93
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.22
K/9: 8.36 K/9: 9.95
BB/9: 3.3 BB/9: 1.98
FIP: 4.17 FIP: 2.72
IP: 163.7 IP: 200.0
xERA: 3.83 xERA: 3.39
xwOBA: 0.302 xwOBA: 0.285
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB PHI Lg Avg
Record 96-63 87-72
R/Game 4.52 4.43 4.47
RA/Game 4.04 4.28 4.47
OPS 0.726 0.707 0.718
wOBA 0.311 0.305 0.309
ERA 3.73 4.01 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.64 4.03
WHIP 1.14 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.28 9.87 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.552 0.516 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.67 4.31 4.21
BP FIP 3.85 3.65 4.05
BP WHIP 1.15 1.35
BP K/9 8.78 9.91
BP Quality* 44.5 48.7 46.0
BP IP 473.3 551.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brody Hopkins (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Matz (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Alex McFarlane (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 27 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), wind out (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0616 (Temp: 0.9963 | Wind: 1.0655)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.2 - PHI 4.9
Simulated Avg: TB 4.2 - PHI 4.9
Win Probability: TB 42.5% - PHI 57.5%
Fair Moneyline: TB +135 / PHI -135
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 6.5: 69.8%
Under 6.5: 30.2%
TB +1.5: 58.8%
PHI -1.5: 41.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.0 - PHI 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.0 - PHI 2.7
F5 Win Prob: TB 37.7% - PHI 62.3% (Tie: 16.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +165 / PHI -165
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +144 +135 +1.5%
PHI ML -174 -135 -6.0%
TB +1.5 -164 -143 -3.3%
PHI -1.5 +135 +143 -1.4%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +17.4%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -22.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 6.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 17.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01215
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Andrew Alvarez
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM WSH Lg Avg
Record 73-86 75-84
R/Game 4.29 5.08 4.47
RA/Game 4.51 5.02 4.47
OPS 0.702 0.744 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.319 0.309
ERA 4.14 4.65 4.17
FIP 3.90 4.53 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.39 1.30
K/9 9.07 8.00 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.477 0.505 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.27 6.10 4.21
BP FIP 4.23 5.22 4.05
BP WHIP 1.31 1.60
BP K/9 9.43 8.49
BP Quality* 46.5 62.8 46.0
BP IP 324.7 491.0
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jack Sinclair (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Tolman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 22 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0317 (Temp: 0.9926 | Wind: 1.0394)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 4.4 - WSH 5.3
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.5 - WSH 5.3
Win Probability: NYM 42.2% - WSH 57.8%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +137 / WSH -137
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 8.0: 57.6%
Under 8.0: 33.6%
NYM -1.5: 28.1%
WSH +1.5: 71.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.0 - WSH 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.0 - WSH 2.9
F5 Win Prob: NYM 34.9% - WSH 65.0% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +186 / WSH -186
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML -131 +137 -14.5%
WSH ML +108 -137 +9.7%
NYM -1.5 +134 +256 -14.6%
WSH +1.5 -162 -256 +10.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +5.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -18.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Washington Nationals +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -162 | Edge: 10.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01216
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nick Lodolo Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN TOR Lg Avg
Record 74-85 77-82
R/Game 4.12 4.00 4.47
RA/Game 5.12 4.30 4.47
OPS 0.700 0.692 0.718
wOBA 0.302 0.299 0.309
ERA 4.85 3.92 4.17
FIP 4.65 3.91 4.03
WHIP 1.45 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.14 8.81 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.402 0.467 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.75 3.39 4.21
BP FIP 4.61 3.91 4.05
BP WHIP 1.46 1.25
BP K/9 8.69 8.34
BP Quality* 56.0 42.0 46.0
BP IP 594.7 340.0
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brock Burke (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Emilio Pagán (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9842 (Temp: 0.9849 | Wind: 0.9993)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.8 - TOR 5.2
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.9 - TOR 5.2
Win Probability: CIN 37.1% - TOR 62.9%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +170 / TOR -170
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 7.5: 60.9%
Under 7.5: 39.1%
CIN +1.5: 53.2%
TOR -1.5: 46.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.2 - TOR 3.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.2 - TOR 3.0
F5 Win Prob: CIN 38.4% - TOR 61.7% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +161 / TOR -161
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +113 +170 -9.9%
TOR ML -136 -170 +5.3%
CIN +1.5 -193 -114 -12.7%
TOR -1.5 +158 +114 +8.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +8.5%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -13.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 60.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 8.5%
Fair ML: -156 | Kelly: 4.48%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01217
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Eury Pérez
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL MIA Lg Avg
Record 93-66 78-81
R/Game 4.60 4.43 4.47
RA/Game 3.87 4.41 4.47
OPS 0.722 0.725 0.718
wOBA 0.310 0.313 0.309
ERA 3.62 4.10 4.17
FIP 3.97 3.99 4.03
WHIP 1.24 1.29 1.30
K/9 8.51 8.32 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.578 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.46 4.55 4.21
BP FIP 3.52 3.96 4.05
BP WHIP 1.19 1.33
BP K/9 9.20 8.99
BP Quality* 41.1 55.7 46.0
BP IP 429.7 540.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: AJ Smith-Shawver (41 pitches yesterday)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Jack Ralston (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Ekness (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Calvin Faucher (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Gibson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Petersen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 78°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 15%
Conditions: Warm (78°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0007 (Temp: 1.0089 | Wind: 0.9919)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.5 - MIA 4.0
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.5 - MIA 4.0
Win Probability: ATL 54.5% - MIA 45.5%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -120 / MIA +120
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 47.3%
Under 8.0: 43.2%
ATL -1.5: 38.4%
MIA +1.5: 61.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.3 - MIA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.3 - MIA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: ATL 50.0% - MIA 50.0% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -100 / MIA +100
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -125 -120 -1.0%
MIA ML +104 +120 -3.5%
ATL -1.5 +135 +161 -4.2%
MIA +1.5 -163 -161 -0.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.0%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -9.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Gavin Williams Home: Noah Cameron
ERA: 3.63 ERA: 3.92
WHIP: 1.08 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 12.13 K/9: 8.09
BB/9: 2.83 BB/9: 2.82
FIP: 3.29 FIP: 3.67
IP: 181.0 IP: 172.3
xERA: 3.75 xERA: 4.06
xwOBA: 0.299 xwOBA: 0.31
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Gavin Williams)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE KC Lg Avg
Record 83-76 68-91
R/Game 4.11 4.23 4.47
RA/Game 4.09 4.94 4.47
OPS 0.689 0.714 0.718
wOBA 0.300 0.307 0.309
ERA 3.73 4.73 4.17
FIP 3.63 4.52 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.40 1.30
K/9 9.63 7.48 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.502 0.430 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.54 5.83 4.21
BP FIP 3.45 5.13 4.05
BP WHIP 1.26 1.62
BP K/9 10.04 7.87
BP Quality* 47.6 67.8 46.0
BP IP 529.0 540.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Joey Cantillo (80 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Anthony Gose (B2B, 28 pitches)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jose Cuas (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Spencer Bivens (32 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Nolan Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0048 (Temp: 0.9995 | Wind: 1.0053)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.5 - KC 4.0
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.5 - KC 4.0
Win Probability: CLE 55.2% - KC 44.8%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -123 / KC +123
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.0: 56.2%
Under 7.0: 34.3%
CLE -1.5: 38.7%
KC +1.5: 61.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.1 - KC 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.1 - KC 2.0
F5 Win Prob: CLE 51.6% - KC 48.4% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -107 / KC +107
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -145 -123 -4.0%
KC ML +120 +123 -0.7%
CLE -1.5 +117 +158 -7.4%
KC +1.5 -141 -158 +2.8%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +3.8%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -18.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tomoyuki Sugano Home: Sean Burke
ERA: 5.36 ERA: 3.4
WHIP: 1.33 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 5.55 K/9: 9.59
BB/9: 2.19 BB/9: 3.29
FIP: 5.33 FIP: 3.47
IP: 147.7 IP: 167.0
xERA: 6.5 xERA: 3.86
xwOBA: 0.381 xwOBA: 0.303
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Burke)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL CWS Lg Avg
Record 57-102 82-77
R/Game 4.65 4.78 4.47
RA/Game 5.84 4.45 4.47
OPS 0.740 0.725 0.718
wOBA 0.318 0.312 0.309
ERA 5.59 4.13 4.17
FIP 4.71 4.05 4.03
WHIP 1.53 1.32 1.30
K/9 7.04 8.33 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.398 0.532 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.83 4.04 4.21
BP FIP 4.31 4.29 4.05
BP WHIP 1.50 1.33
BP K/9 7.72 8.37
BP Quality* 55.3 49.7 46.0
BP IP 327.7 285.0
Bullpen Edge: CWS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jimmy Herget (49 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Nick Frasso (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Trevor Richards (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9971 (Temp: 0.9836 | Wind: 1.0138)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.3 - CWS 6.3
Simulated Avg: COL 4.3 - CWS 6.4
Win Probability: COL 32.9% - CWS 67.1%
Fair Moneyline: COL +204 / CWS -204
Avg Total Runs: 10.7
Over 8.0: 64.8%
Under 8.0: 27.6%
COL +1.5: 47.1%
CWS -1.5: 52.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.2 - CWS 3.7
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.2 - CWS 3.7
F5 Win Prob: COL 29.5% - CWS 70.5% (Tie: 13.3%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +239 / CWS -239
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +204 +204 +0.0%
CWS ML -252 -204 -4.5%
COL +1.5 -106 +112 -4.4%
CWS -1.5 -114 -112 -0.4%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +12.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -24.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.4%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01218
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael McGreevy Home: Robert Gasser
ERA: 3.84 ERA: 4.01
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 6.2 K/9: 8.19
BB/9: 2.52 BB/9: 2.96
FIP: 4.23 FIP: 4.03
IP: 164.0 IP: 103.3
xERA: 5.32 xERA: 4.41
xwOBA: 0.35 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL MIL Lg Avg
Record 77-82 100-59
R/Game 4.47 5.13 4.47
RA/Game 4.60 3.82 4.47
OPS 0.693 0.742 0.718
wOBA 0.301 0.319 0.309
ERA 4.24 3.52 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.57 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.19 1.30
K/9 7.97 9.57 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.486 0.631 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.47 3.47 4.21
BP FIP 4.02 3.61 4.05
BP WHIP 1.37 1.26
BP K/9 8.33 8.99
BP Quality* 50.2 42.3 46.0
BP IP 569.7 562.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cooper Hjerpe (74 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9960 (Temp: 0.9861 | Wind: 1.0101)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.2 - MIL 5.6
Simulated Avg: STL 4.2 - MIL 5.6
Win Probability: STL 37.1% - MIL 62.9%
Fair Moneyline: STL +169 / MIL -169
Avg Total Runs: 9.8
Over 8.0: 57.9%
Under 8.0: 33.7%
STL +1.5: 52.3%
MIL -1.5: 47.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.4 - MIL 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.4 - MIL 3.1
F5 Win Prob: STL 40.1% - MIL 59.9% (Tie: 14.9%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +150 / MIL -150
F5 Avg Total: 5.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +154 +169 -2.3%
MIL ML -187 -169 -2.3%
STL +1.5 -143 -109 -6.6%
MIL -1.5 +119 +109 +2.1%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +5.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -18.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jacob deGrom Home: Joe Ryan
ERA: 3.86 ERA: 3.83
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 11.12 K/9: 9.8
BB/9: 2.44 BB/9: 1.95
FIP: 3.08 FIP: 3.54
IP: 158.7 IP: 138.7
xERA: 3.36 xERA: 3.73
xwOBA: 0.284 xwOBA: 0.298
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Jacob deGrom)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX MIN Lg Avg
Record 79-80 75-84
R/Game 4.16 4.53 4.47
RA/Game 4.41 4.94 4.47
OPS 0.712 0.718 0.718
wOBA 0.307 0.310 0.309
ERA 4.28 4.57 4.17
FIP 4.01 4.08 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.49 8.66 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.473 0.461 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.52 4.53 4.21
BP FIP 4.30 3.97 4.05
BP WHIP 1.39 1.43
BP K/9 8.44 9.10
BP Quality* 54.6 50.4 46.0
BP IP 550.0 570.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robert Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: A.J. Minter (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Andrew Morris (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9878 (Temp: 0.9923 | Wind: 0.9954)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 3.9 - MIN 4.5
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.0 - MIN 4.5
Win Probability: TEX 44.6% - MIN 55.4%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +124 / MIN -124
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.0: 55.7%
Under 7.0: 34.7%
TEX -1.5: 28.7%
MIN +1.5: 71.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.0 - MIN 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.0 - MIN 2.0
F5 Win Prob: TEX 49.2% - MIN 50.8% (Tie: 18.9%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +103 / MIN -103
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -114 +124 -8.6%
MIN ML -105 -124 +4.2%
TEX -1.5 +153 +248 -10.8%
MIN +1.5 -186 -248 +6.2%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +3.3%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -17.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Athletics
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Hunter Brown Home: Jacob Lopez
ERA: 3.26 ERA: 5.68
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.53
K/9: 10.59 K/9: 8.28
BB/9: 4.5 BB/9: 4.3
FIP: 3.65 FIP: 5.13
IP: 102.0 IP: 117.3
xERA: 3.24 xERA: 3.67
xwOBA: 0.279 xwOBA: 0.296
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Hunter Brown)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU ATH Lg Avg
Record 79-80 63-96
R/Game 4.45 4.35 4.47
RA/Game 4.77 5.72 4.47
OPS 0.727 0.723 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.312 0.309
ERA 4.50 5.44 4.17
FIP 4.37 4.75 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.50 1.30
K/9 8.86 8.51 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.377 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.09 5.65 4.21
BP FIP 4.25 4.66 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.60
BP K/9 8.94 9.01
BP Quality* 53.4 61.6 46.0
BP IP 541.3 613.0
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Miguel Ullola (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Logan VanWey (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Scott Blewett (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9853 (Temp: 0.9924 | Wind: 0.9928)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 5.4 - ATH 4.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 5.4 - ATH 4.3
Win Probability: HOU 60.2% - ATH 39.8%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -151 / ATH +151
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.0: 48.8%
Under 9.0: 42.3%
HOU -1.5: 45.2%
ATH +1.5: 54.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.8 - ATH 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.8 - ATH 2.0
F5 Win Prob: HOU 63.0% - ATH 37.0% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -170 / ATH +170
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML -182 -151 -4.3%
ATH ML +149 +151 -0.4%
HOU -1.5 -108 +121 -6.8%
ATH +1.5 -112 -121 +2.0%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -3.6%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -10.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brandon Pfaadt Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SD Lg Avg
Record 85-74 89-70
R/Game 4.51 4.40 4.47
RA/Game 4.45 4.14 4.47
OPS 0.719 0.715 0.718
wOBA 0.308 0.308 0.309
ERA 4.10 3.93 4.17
FIP 4.20 4.03 4.03
WHIP 1.27 1.29 1.30
K/9 7.10 8.27 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.506 0.527 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.41 2.72 4.21
BP FIP 3.46 2.96 4.05
BP WHIP 1.18 1.14
BP K/9 7.93 11.12
BP Quality* 44.0 38.4 46.0
BP IP 501.7 330.3
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Taylor Clarke (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Juan Morillo (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0169 (Temp: 0.9994 | Wind: 1.0175)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.0 - SD 4.1
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.0 - SD 4.1
Win Probability: ARI 49.4% - SD 50.6%
Fair Moneyline: ARI +103 / SD -103
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.5: 53.0%
Under 7.5: 47.0%
ARI +1.5: 66.5%
SD -1.5: 33.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.4 - SD 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.4 - SD 2.2
F5 Win Prob: ARI 53.7% - SD 46.3% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -116 / SD +116
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +114 +103 +2.6%
SD ML -137 -103 -7.2%
ARI +1.5 -193 -199 +0.6%
SD -1.5 +158 +199 -5.3%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +0.6%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -5.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Reid Detmers Home: Bryce Miller
ERA: 3.47 ERA: 3.99
WHIP: 1.05 WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 10.26 K/9: 8.95
BB/9: 2.31 BB/9: 2.88
FIP: 2.97 FIP: 4.38
IP: 179.0 IP: 112.7
xERA: 3.24 xERA: 3.65
xwOBA: 0.279 xwOBA: 0.295
Pitcher Edge: LAA (Reid Detmers)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SEA Lg Avg
Record 61-98 74-85
R/Game 4.03 4.05 4.47
RA/Game 4.60 4.45 4.47
OPS 0.679 0.690 0.718
wOBA 0.295 0.301 0.309
ERA 4.26 4.21 4.17
FIP 3.92 3.85 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.27 1.30
K/9 9.04 8.73 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.440 0.457 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.67 4.32 4.21
BP FIP 4.15 4.10 4.05
BP WHIP 1.42 1.36
BP K/9 9.06 8.73
BP Quality* 56.0 52.6 46.0
BP IP 430.0 525.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Sammy Peralta (35 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blake Weiman (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Cooper Criswell (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José A. Ferrer (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carlos Vargas (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 52°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Cool (52°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9618 (Temp: 0.9760 | Wind: 0.9855)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 3.7 - SEA 3.5
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.7 - SEA 3.5
Win Probability: LAA 51.5% - SEA 48.5%
Fair Moneyline: LAA -106 / SEA +106
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 6.5: 54.6%
Under 6.5: 45.4%
LAA +1.5: 69.9%
SEA -1.5: 30.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 1.9 - SEA 1.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.9 - SEA 1.6
F5 Win Prob: LAA 57.4% - SEA 42.6% (Tie: 20.9%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA -135 / SEA +135
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +100 -106 +1.5%
SEA ML -121 +106 -6.3%
LAA +1.5 -224 -233 +0.8%
SEA -1.5 +182 +233 -5.4%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +2.2%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -7.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | September 25, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tarik Skubal Home: Yunior Marte
ERA: 2.85 ERA: 4.66
WHIP: 0.99 WHIP: 1.4
K/9: 10.44 K/9: 5.12
BB/9: 1.6 BB/9: 4.19
FIP: 2.51 FIP: 5.38
IP: 151.7 IP: 19.3
xERA: 3.05 xERA: 4.85
xwOBA: 0.271 xwOBA: 0.336
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tarik Skubal)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD SF Lg Avg
Record 97-62 65-94
R/Game 4.97 4.18 4.47
RA/Game 3.75 4.71 4.47
OPS 0.764 0.711 0.718
wOBA 0.327 0.304 0.309
ERA 3.59 4.36 4.17
FIP 3.60 4.11 4.03
WHIP 1.15 1.36 1.30
K/9 9.47 7.57 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.626 0.446 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.97 4.69 4.21
BP FIP 3.72 4.59 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.50
BP K/9 9.81 6.72
BP Quality* 48.9 51.9 46.0
BP IP 501.0 489.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Justin Wrobleski (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Edwin Díaz (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Blake Treinen (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jack Dreyer (2 of last 3 days)
SF: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 26 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), crosswind (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9766 (Temp: 0.9874 | Wind: 0.9890)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 5.0 - SF 3.3
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.0 - SF 3.3
Win Probability: LAD 66.9% - SF 33.1%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -202 / SF +202
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 7.5: 54.2%
Under 7.5: 45.8%
LAD -1.5: 50.3%
SF +1.5: 49.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.7 - SF 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.7 - SF 1.4
F5 Win Prob: LAD 73.0% - SF 27.0% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -271 / SF +271
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -336 -202 -10.2%
SF ML +264 +202 +5.6%
LAD -1.5 -175 -101 -13.3%
SF +1.5 +145 +101 +8.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +1.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -6.6%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] San Francisco Giants +1.5 (Run Line) [+145]
Model: 49.7% | Market: 40.8% | Edge: 8.9%
Fair ML: +101 | Kelly: 3.75%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01219