2026-09-26
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-26
Games: 13 | Plays: 0
======================================================================
[PITCHER MISMATCH] PITCHER MISMATCH: Connelly Early (stats from BOS, scheduled for WSH)
[PITCHER MISMATCH] All edge signals suppressed — verify pitcher assignment before acting.
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | September 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jonah Tong Home: Connelly Early
ERA: 4.21 ERA: 3.44
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 8.77 K/9: 9.13
BB/9: 4.56 BB/9: 3.34
FIP: 3.68 FIP: 4.31
IP: 25.7 IP: 91.7
xERA: 3.37 xERA: 4.35
xwOBA: 0.284 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Jonah Tong)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM WSH Lg Avg
Record 73-87 76-84
R/Game 4.30 5.09 4.48
RA/Game 4.53 5.03 4.48
OPS 0.703 0.745 0.718
wOBA 0.303 0.319 0.310
ERA 4.16 4.66 4.17
FIP 3.91 4.53 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.39 1.30
K/9 9.04 8.03 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.477 0.506 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYM WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.36 6.07 4.22
BP FIP 4.26 5.19 4.05
BP WHIP 1.33 1.59
BP K/9 9.31 8.50
BP Quality* 50.1 62.5 46.0
BP IP 332.7 495.3
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Cionel Pérez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Justin Hagenman (70 pitches yesterday)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Jack Sinclair (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yovanny Cruz (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 15 mph (gusts 29 mph)
Precip Chance: 42%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), wind in (15 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9566 (Temp: 0.9927 | Wind: 0.9637)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYM 4.5 - WSH 5.0
Simulated Avg: NYM 4.5 - WSH 5.1
Win Probability: NYM 44.5% - WSH 55.5%
Fair Moneyline: NYM +125 / WSH -125
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 56.3%
Under 8.5: 43.7%
NYM -1.5: 29.7%
WSH +1.5: 70.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYM 2.2 - WSH 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 2.2 - WSH 2.7
F5 Win Prob: NYM 41.7% - WSH 58.3% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM +140 / WSH -140
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYM ML -135 +125 -13.0%
WSH ML +112 -125 +8.4%
NYM -1.5 +123 +237 -15.2%
WSH +1.5 -149 -237 +10.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | September 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kirby Yates Home: Justin Verlander
ERA: 3.32 ERA: 12.27
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 2.18
K/9: 10.62 K/9: 2.45
BB/9: 3.76 BB/9: 4.91
FIP: 2.95 FIP: 7.69
IP: 40.7 IP: 3.7
xERA: 3.42 xERA: 11.53
xwOBA: 0.286 xwOBA: 0.474
Pitcher Edge: PIT (Kirby Yates)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT DET Lg Avg
Record 81-79 75-85
R/Game 4.75 4.48 4.48
RA/Game 4.58 4.03 4.48
OPS 0.734 0.720 0.718
wOBA 0.319 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.17 3.67 4.17
FIP 3.64 3.84 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.22 1.30
K/9 9.28 8.22 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.517 0.548 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.86 4.15 4.22
BP FIP 3.53 4.36 4.05
BP WHIP 1.33 1.30
BP K/9 9.53 8.30
BP Quality* 45.3 50.0 46.0
BP IP 514.7 485.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Wilber Dotel (47 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Brandon Eisert (2 of last 3 days)
DET: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Andrew Sears (41 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Kenley Jansen (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 68°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (68°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9775 (Temp: 0.9958 | Wind: 0.9817)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 5.4 - DET 3.8
Simulated Avg: PIT 5.4 - DET 3.8
Win Probability: PIT 65.0% - DET 35.0%
Fair Moneyline: PIT -186 / DET +186
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 9.0: 44.9%
Under 9.0: 46.1%
PIT -1.5: 49.6%
DET +1.5: 50.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 3.3 - DET 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 3.2 - DET 1.9
F5 Win Prob: PIT 71.2% - DET 28.8% (Tie: 14.6%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT -247 / DET +247
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML -108 -186 +13.1%
DET ML -112 +186 -17.9%
PIT -1.5 +150 +101 +9.6%
DET +1.5 -183 -101 -14.3%
O 9.0 -110 N/A -7.5%
U 9.0 -110 N/A -6.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Pittsburgh Pirates (Moneyline (High Edge)) | ML: -108 | Edge: 13.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01220
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | September 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Rhett Lowder Home: Trey Yesavage
ERA: 6.01 ERA: 3.67
WHIP: 1.55 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 7.14 K/9: 8.84
BB/9: 3.82 BB/9: 4.33
FIP: 4.62 FIP: 4.07
IP: 127.3 IP: 95.7
xERA: 5.5 xERA: 3.37
xwOBA: 0.355 xwOBA: 0.284
Pitcher Edge: TOR (Trey Yesavage)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN TOR Lg Avg
Record 74-86 78-82
R/Game 4.12 4.01 4.48
RA/Game 5.12 4.30 4.48
OPS 0.700 0.693 0.718
wOBA 0.302 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.85 3.92 4.17
FIP 4.64 3.90 4.03
WHIP 1.45 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.13 8.83 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.402 0.468 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CIN TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.77 3.34 4.22
BP FIP 4.61 3.85 4.05
BP WHIP 1.46 1.25
BP K/9 8.69 8.44
BP Quality* 56.0 44.5 46.0
BP IP 597.7 345.3
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Luis Mey (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Graham Ashcraft (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Pierce Johnson (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Brendan Cellucci (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chad Dallas (33 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0180 (Temp: 1.0026 | Wind: 1.0154)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CIN 3.8 - TOR 5.2
Simulated Avg: CIN 3.8 - TOR 5.2
Win Probability: CIN 36.2% - TOR 63.8%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +176 / TOR -176
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.0: 51.5%
Under 8.0: 39.4%
CIN +1.5: 52.3%
TOR -1.5: 47.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 2.1 - TOR 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 2.1 - TOR 2.9
F5 Win Prob: CIN 36.7% - TOR 63.3% (Tie: 15.6%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +172 / TOR -172
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CIN ML +139 +176 -5.7%
TOR ML -168 -176 +1.1%
CIN +1.5 -157 -109 -8.8%
TOR -1.5 +130 +109 +4.3%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.9%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | September 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Blake Snell Home: Matt Wilkinson
ERA: 1.86 ERA: 3.65
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 12.1 K/9: 6.57
BB/9: 3.72 BB/9: 1.46
FIP: 1.65 FIP: 4.23
IP: 38.7 IP: 24.7
xERA: 2.16 xERA: 3.2
xwOBA: 0.228 xwOBA: 0.277
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Blake Snell)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD SF Lg Avg
Record 98-62 65-95
R/Game 4.95 4.16 4.48
RA/Game 3.73 4.69 4.48
OPS 0.763 0.708 0.718
wOBA 0.327 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.57 4.34 4.17
FIP 3.58 4.11 4.03
WHIP 1.14 1.36 1.30
K/9 9.50 7.57 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.627 0.445 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAD SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.96 4.66 4.22
BP FIP 3.71 4.53 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.49
BP K/9 9.82 6.78
BP Quality* 42.8 55.9 46.0
BP IP 502.0 473.7
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SF: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Sam Hentges (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Joel Kuhnel (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Dylan Smith (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 13 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9716 (Temp: 0.9942 | Wind: 0.9772)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAD 4.8 - SF 2.6
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.8 - SF 2.6
Win Probability: LAD 73.0% - SF 27.1%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -270 / SF +270
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.5: 46.4%
Under 7.5: 53.6%
LAD -1.5: 55.8%
SF +1.5: 44.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAD 2.5 - SF 1.1
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.5 - SF 1.1
F5 Win Prob: LAD 77.8% - SF 22.2% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -351 / SF +351
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAD ML -343 -270 -4.5%
SF ML +269 +270 -0.1%
LAD -1.5 -180 -126 -8.5%
SF +1.5 +148 +126 +3.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -6.0%
U 7.5 -110 N/A +1.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | September 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Nathan Eovaldi Home: Bailey Ober
ERA: 4.27 ERA: 4.21
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 8.98 K/9: 6.5
BB/9: 2.1 BB/9: 2.57
FIP: 4.01 FIP: 4.47
IP: 141.3 IP: 126.0
xERA: 4.32 xERA: 4.5
xwOBA: 0.319 xwOBA: 0.325
Pitcher Edge: TEX (Nathan Eovaldi)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX MIN Lg Avg
Record 79-81 76-84
R/Game 4.14 4.57 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 4.92 4.48
OPS 0.711 0.718 0.718
wOBA 0.307 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.32 4.55 4.17
FIP 4.00 4.06 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.50 8.67 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.466 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.52 4.50 4.22
BP FIP 4.30 3.96 4.05
BP WHIP 1.38 1.43
BP K/9 8.45 9.08
BP Quality* 56.0 47.2 46.0
BP IP 554.0 573.7
Bullpen Edge: MIN (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Gavin Collyer (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Trevor Williams (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jordan Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Chase Silseth (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 24 mph)
Precip Chance: 67%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), wind in (10 mph) | Rain likely (67%)
Weather Factor: 0.9647 (Temp: 0.9834 | Wind: 0.9809)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.1 - MIN 5.0
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.1 - MIN 5.0
Win Probability: TEX 41.8% - MIN 58.2%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +139 / MIN -139
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.0: 52.1%
Under 8.0: 38.8%
TEX -1.5: 27.4%
MIN +1.5: 72.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.4 - MIN 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.4 - MIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: TEX 47.3% - MIN 52.7% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX +111 / MIN -111
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -126 +139 -14.0%
MIN ML +104 -139 +9.2%
TEX -1.5 +135 +266 -15.2%
MIN +1.5 -163 -266 +10.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -0.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -13.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Minnesota Twins +1.5 (Run Line (High Edge)) | ML: -163 | Edge: 10.7%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01221
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | September 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Brent Suter Home: Jack Ralston
ERA: 3.48 ERA: 4.5
WHIP: 1.25 WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 7.67 K/9: 9.56
BB/9: 2.56 BB/9: 4.5
FIP: 3.58 FIP: 5.72
IP: 88.0 IP: 16.0
xERA: 3.97 xERA: 4.2
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.315
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Brent Suter)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL MIA Lg Avg
Record 93-67 79-81
R/Game 4.57 4.42 4.48
RA/Game 3.86 4.38 4.48
OPS 0.719 0.727 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.314 0.310
ERA 3.62 4.08 4.17
FIP 3.99 3.98 4.03
WHIP 1.24 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.47 8.32 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.576 0.504 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.47 4.55 4.22
BP FIP 3.55 3.96 4.05
BP WHIP 1.19 1.33
BP K/9 9.11 8.99
BP Quality* 41.3 46.7 46.0
BP IP 433.7 540.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Grant Holmes (54 pitches yesterday)
MIA: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0383 (Temp: 1.0160 | Wind: 1.0219)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.4 - MIA 3.9
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.4 - MIA 3.9
Win Probability: ATL 55.1% - MIA 44.9%
Fair Moneyline: ATL -123 / MIA +123
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 8.5: 45.1%
Under 8.5: 54.9%
ATL -1.5: 38.3%
MIA +1.5: 61.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ATL 2.5 - MIA 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.5 - MIA 2.1
F5 Win Prob: ATL 56.2% - MIA 43.8% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL -128 / MIA +128
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ATL ML -124 -123 -0.3%
MIA ML +103 +123 -4.4%
ATL -1.5 +131 +161 -5.0%
MIA +1.5 -158 -161 +0.5%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -7.3%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +2.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | September 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Tanner Bibee Home: Michael Wacha
ERA: 4.35 ERA: 3.33
WHIP: 1.22 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 7.02 K/9: 7.13
BB/9: 2.67 BB/9: 2.45
FIP: 4.5 FIP: 4.21
IP: 182.0 IP: 194.3
xERA: 4.29 xERA: 3.97
xwOBA: 0.318 xwOBA: 0.307
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE KC Lg Avg
Record 84-76 68-92
R/Game 4.16 4.26 4.48
RA/Game 4.12 4.98 4.48
OPS 0.691 0.717 0.718
wOBA 0.301 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.76 4.77 4.17
FIP 3.66 4.55 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.41 1.30
K/9 9.60 7.45 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.504 0.429 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.59 5.87 4.22
BP FIP 3.50 5.17 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.63
BP K/9 9.97 7.82
BP Quality* 48.1 65.2 46.0
BP IP 533.7 544.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Matt Festa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Herrin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Shawn Armstrong (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Nolan Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Lucas Erceg (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Connor Thomas (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Gose (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 40%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9983 (Temp: 1.0015 | Wind: 0.9968)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.5 - KC 4.5
Simulated Avg: CLE 4.5 - KC 4.5
Win Probability: CLE 50.3% - KC 49.7%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -101 / KC +101
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 8.5: 52.0%
Under 8.5: 48.0%
CLE -1.5: 34.6%
KC +1.5: 65.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.1 - KC 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.1 - KC 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CLE 43.6% - KC 56.4% (Tie: 17.0%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +129 / KC -129
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -127 -101 -5.6%
KC ML +105 +101 +0.9%
CLE -1.5 +130 +189 -8.9%
KC +1.5 -157 -189 +4.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -0.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -4.4%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | September 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jose Quintana Home: Davis Martin
ERA: 5.4 ERA: 3.84
WHIP: 1.51 WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 4.4 K/9: 7.49
BB/9: 3.6 BB/9: 2.79
FIP: 5.63 FIP: 3.62
IP: 45.0 IP: 145.3
xERA: 5.65 xERA: 4.66
xwOBA: 0.359 xwOBA: 0.33
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Davis Martin)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL CWS Lg Avg
Record 57-103 83-77
R/Game 4.63 4.79 4.48
RA/Game 5.84 4.43 4.48
OPS 0.738 0.725 0.718
wOBA 0.317 0.312 0.310
ERA 5.60 4.11 4.17
FIP 4.71 4.05 4.03
WHIP 1.53 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.04 8.35 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.396 0.535 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.87 4.03 4.22
BP FIP 4.30 4.29 4.05
BP WHIP 1.50 1.33
BP K/9 7.71 8.38
BP Quality* 52.3 48.2 46.0
BP IP 329.0 285.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Hagen Smith (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0061 (Temp: 0.9832 | Wind: 1.0233)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 4.6 - CWS 6.2
Simulated Avg: COL 4.6 - CWS 6.2
Win Probability: COL 36.7% - CWS 63.3%
Fair Moneyline: COL +172 / CWS -172
Avg Total Runs: 10.8
Over 8.0: 64.9%
Under 8.0: 27.5%
COL +1.5: 50.6%
CWS -1.5: 49.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.5 - CWS 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.5 - CWS 3.6
F5 Win Prob: COL 34.6% - CWS 65.4% (Tie: 13.5%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +189 / CWS -189
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +197 +172 +3.1%
CWS ML -244 -172 -7.7%
COL +1.5 -110 -102 -1.8%
CWS -1.5 -109 +102 -2.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +12.5%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -24.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 12.5%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01222
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | September 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Quinn Mathews Home: Dustin May
ERA: 3.65 ERA: 4.67
WHIP: 1.38 WHIP: 1.32
K/9: 7.92 K/9: 8.77
BB/9: 3.65 BB/9: 3.09
FIP: 3.73 FIP: 3.37
IP: 44.3 IP: 142.7
xERA: 3.76 xERA: 4.47
xwOBA: 0.299 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Dustin May)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL MIL Lg Avg
Record 77-83 101-59
R/Game 4.46 5.14 4.48
RA/Game 4.62 3.83 4.48
OPS 0.694 0.742 0.718
wOBA 0.301 0.319 0.310
ERA 4.26 3.52 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.58 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.18 1.30
K/9 7.95 9.58 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.484 0.632 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat STL MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.48 3.50 4.22
BP FIP 4.02 3.64 4.05
BP WHIP 1.38 1.26
BP K/9 8.32 8.99
BP Quality* 53.3 44.0 46.0
BP IP 573.0 565.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
UNAVAIL: Brycen Mautz (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Luis Gastelum (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryne Stanek (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Trevor Megill (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Abner Uribe (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 57°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (57°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9797 (Temp: 0.9816 | Wind: 0.9980)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: STL 4.1 - MIL 5.1
Simulated Avg: STL 4.1 - MIL 5.1
Win Probability: STL 40.4% - MIL 59.6%
Fair Moneyline: STL +147 / MIL -147
Avg Total Runs: 9.2
Over 7.5: 62.6%
Under 7.5: 37.4%
STL +1.5: 56.3%
MIL -1.5: 43.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: STL 2.3 - MIL 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 2.3 - MIL 2.5
F5 Win Prob: STL 47.5% - MIL 52.5% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +111 / MIL -111
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
STL ML +157 +147 +1.5%
MIL ML -192 -147 -6.2%
STL +1.5 -143 -129 -2.6%
MIL -1.5 +118 +129 -2.1%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +10.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -15.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.2%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01223
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | September 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Griffin Jax Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB PHI Lg Avg
Record 97-63 87-73
R/Game 4.51 4.41 4.48
RA/Game 4.01 4.27 4.48
OPS 0.725 0.705 0.718
wOBA 0.311 0.304 0.310
ERA 3.70 4.00 4.17
FIP 3.92 3.64 4.03
WHIP 1.13 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.26 9.89 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.553 0.515 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TB PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.64 4.30 4.22
BP FIP 3.84 3.65 4.05
BP WHIP 1.14 1.35
BP K/9 8.75 9.91
BP Quality* 45.8 45.6 46.0
BP IP 477.0 552.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Cole Sulser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brody Hopkins (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Steven Matz (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 26 mph)
Precip Chance: 22%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0294 (Temp: 0.9836 | Wind: 1.0466)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TB 4.7 - PHI 4.6
Simulated Avg: TB 4.7 - PHI 4.6
Win Probability: TB 50.5% - PHI 49.5%
Fair Moneyline: TB -102 / PHI +102
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 7.0: 62.7%
Under 7.0: 28.6%
TB -1.5: 35.2%
PHI +1.5: 64.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.6 - PHI 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.6 - PHI 2.5
F5 Win Prob: TB 52.0% - PHI 47.9% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TB -109 / PHI +109
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TB ML -110 -102 -1.9%
PHI ML -109 +102 -2.6%
TB -1.5 +150 +184 -4.8%
PHI +1.5 -182 -184 +0.3%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +10.3%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -23.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 10.3%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01224
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | September 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: TBD Home: Walker Buehler
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SD Lg Avg
Record 86-74 89-71
R/Game 4.55 4.39 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 4.19 4.48
OPS 0.721 0.715 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.10 3.97 4.17
FIP 4.19 4.07 4.03
WHIP 1.27 1.29 1.30
K/9 7.10 8.24 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.511 0.522 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.41 2.74 4.22
BP FIP 3.46 2.99 4.05
BP WHIP 1.18 1.15
BP K/9 7.93 11.05
BP Quality* 39.5 43.2 46.0
BP IP 501.7 332.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Jason Adam (B2B, 27 pitches)
TIRED: David Morgan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0069 (Temp: 1.0023 | Wind: 1.0047)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.3 - SD 4.1
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.3 - SD 4.1
Win Probability: ARI 52.4% - SD 47.6%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -110 / SD +110
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.5: 55.7%
Under 7.5: 44.3%
ARI -1.5: 35.7%
SD +1.5: 64.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.5 - SD 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.5 - SD 2.4
F5 Win Prob: ARI 52.2% - SD 47.8% (Tie: 16.4%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -109 / SD +109
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML +102 -110 +2.9%
SD ML -122 +110 -7.3%
ARI -1.5 +172 +180 -1.0%
SD +1.5 -211 -180 -3.6%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Athletics
Regular Season | September 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Hayden Wesneski Home: Jack Perkins
ERA: 3.5 ERA: 5.9
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 6.83 K/9: 10.16
BB/9: 3.17 BB/9: 3.72
FIP: 3.6 FIP: 4.32
IP: 54.0 IP: 116.0
xERA: 3.89 xERA: 4.03
xwOBA: 0.304 xwOBA: 0.309
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Hayden Wesneski)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU ATH Lg Avg
Record 79-81 64-96
R/Game 4.45 4.36 4.48
RA/Game 4.78 5.72 4.48
OPS 0.727 0.722 0.718
wOBA 0.309 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.51 5.44 4.17
FIP 4.36 4.76 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.50 1.30
K/9 8.85 8.50 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.468 0.378 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat HOU ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 5.68 4.22
BP FIP 4.23 4.68 4.05
BP WHIP 1.28 1.60
BP K/9 8.95 9.03
BP Quality* 53.5 61.8 46.0
BP IP 544.0 616.0
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: AJ Blubaugh (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Josh Hendrickson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Logan VanWey (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bryan Abreu (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Geoff Hartlieb (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hogan Harris (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luis Medina (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Elvis Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9755 (Temp: 0.9876 | Wind: 0.9877)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: HOU 5.3 - ATH 4.5
Simulated Avg: HOU 5.2 - ATH 4.5
Win Probability: HOU 57.2% - ATH 42.8%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -133 / ATH +133
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 9.5: 48.9%
Under 9.5: 51.1%
HOU -1.5: 42.1%
ATH +1.5: 57.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: HOU 2.7 - ATH 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.7 - ATH 2.2
F5 Win Prob: HOU 59.0% - ATH 41.0% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -144 / ATH +144
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
HOU ML -161 -133 -4.5%
ATH ML +133 +133 -0.1%
HOU -1.5 +104 +138 -6.9%
ATH +1.5 -125 -138 +2.3%
O 9.5 -110 N/A -3.5%
U 9.5 -110 N/A -1.3%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | September 26, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Ryan Johnson Home: Kade Anderson
ERA: 4.93 ERA: 4.18
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 7.2 K/9: 7.79
BB/9: 3.69 BB/9: 2.23
FIP: 5.19 FIP: 3.72
IP: 95.0 IP: 32.3
xERA: 4.88 xERA: 4.0
xwOBA: 0.337 xwOBA: 0.308
Pitcher Edge: SEA (Kade Anderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SEA Lg Avg
Record 62-98 74-86
R/Game 4.05 4.06 4.48
RA/Game 4.61 4.47 4.48
OPS 0.680 0.690 0.718
wOBA 0.296 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.26 4.22 4.17
FIP 3.92 3.85 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.27 1.30
K/9 9.06 8.74 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.441 0.456 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.74 4.33 4.22
BP FIP 4.16 4.12 4.05
BP WHIP 1.43 1.37
BP K/9 9.10 8.71
BP Quality* 53.4 49.8 46.0
BP IP 433.0 528.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Luke Murphy (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Fermin (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tayler Saucedo (2 of last 3 days)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Troy Taylor (31 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Cooper Criswell (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 53°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (53°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0015 (Temp: 0.9773 | Wind: 1.0247)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 3.7 - SEA 4.6
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.7 - SEA 4.6
Win Probability: LAA 40.6% - SEA 59.5%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +147 / SEA -147
Avg Total Runs: 8.3
Over 7.0: 55.1%
Under 7.0: 35.3%
LAA +1.5: 57.8%
SEA -1.5: 42.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 2.0 - SEA 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 2.0 - SEA 2.6
F5 Win Prob: LAA 39.6% - SEA 60.4% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +153 / SEA -153
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +159 +147 +1.9%
SEA ML -193 -147 -6.4%
LAA +1.5 -136 -137 +0.2%
SEA -1.5 +113 +137 -4.7%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +2.7%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -17.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================