2026-09-27
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-27
Games: 15 | Plays: 3
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Regular Season | September 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Manaea Home: DJ Herz
ERA: 4.67 ERA: 9.0
WHIP: 1.3 WHIP: 1.75
K/9: 8.77 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 2.68 BB/9: 4.5
FIP: 4.11 FIP: 5.85
IP: 144.7 IP: 4.0
xERA: 4.82 xERA: 8.42
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.422
Pitcher Edge: NYM (Sean Manaea)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYM WSH Lg Avg
Record 74-87 76-85
R/Game 4.32 5.06 4.48
RA/Game 4.50 5.04 4.48
OPS 0.704 0.743 0.719
wOBA 0.304 0.318 0.310
ERA 4.14 4.67 4.17
FIP 3.88 4.54 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.39 1.30
K/9 9.07 8.03 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.481 0.502 0.500
Park Factor 98 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYM WSH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.32 6.07 4.22
BP FIP 4.23 5.19 4.05
BP WHIP 1.32 1.59
BP K/9 9.30 8.50
BP Quality* 48.3 61.0 46.0
BP IP 335.7 495.3
Bullpen Edge: NYM (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYM: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Nate Lavender (2 of last 3 days)
WSH: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Jake Irvin (101 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYM (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WSH (Home): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Joey Wiemer, Keibert Ruiz, José Tena
Joey Wiemer Outfielder OPS: 0.912 (70 AB)
Keibert Ruiz Catcher OPS: 0.759 (332 AB)
José Tena Designated Hitter OPS: 0.672 (257 AB)
Run Adjustment: 92.3% of full strength
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Nationals Park
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 28 mph)
Precip Chance: 50%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0031 (Temp: 0.9868 | Wind: 1.0165)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYM 5.5 - WSH 5.0
Simulated Avg: NYM 5.5 - WSH 5.0
Win Probability: NYM 54.6% - WSH 45.4%
Fair Moneyline: NYM -120 / WSH +120
Avg Total Runs: 10.5
Over 8.0: 63.5%
Under 8.0: 28.6%
NYM -1.5: 40.4%
WSH +1.5: 59.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYM 3.1 - WSH 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: NYM 3.1 - WSH 2.8
F5 Win Prob: NYM 54.4% - WSH 45.6% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: NYM -119 / WSH +119
F5 Avg Total: 5.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYM ML -110 -120 +2.2%
WSH ML -109 +120 -6.7%
NYM -1.5 +149 +147 +0.2%
WSH +1.5 -181 -147 -4.8%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +11.1%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -23.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.0 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 11.1%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01225
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | September 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shane Baz Home: Elmer Rodríguez
ERA: 4.11 ERA: 5.4
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 1.58
K/9: 7.71 K/9: 7.09
BB/9: 3.16 BB/9: 5.4
FIP: 3.52 FIP: 4.3
IP: 179.7 IP: 26.7
xERA: 4.27 xERA: 5.58
xwOBA: 0.317 xwOBA: 0.357
Pitcher Edge: BAL (Shane Baz)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYY Lg Avg
Record 79-82 93-68
R/Game 4.46 4.59 4.48
RA/Game 4.59 3.73 4.48
OPS 0.710 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.307 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.08 3.24 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.59 4.03
WHIP 1.34 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.18 9.05 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.487 0.593 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BAL NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.99 3.28 4.22
BP FIP 3.60 4.03 4.05
BP WHIP 1.30 1.24
BP K/9 8.91 8.20
BP Quality* 42.8 42.1 46.0
BP IP 538.7 573.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BAL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BAL (Away): MISSING KEY HITTERS
Out: Blaze Alexander, Luis Robert Jr., Samuel Basallo
Blaze Alexander Third Base OPS: 0.772 (261 AB)
Luis Robert Jr. Outfielder OPS: 0.707 (204 AB)
Samuel Basallo Catcher OPS: 0.697 (360 AB)
Run Adjustment: 94.4% of full strength
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 26 mph)
Precip Chance: 37%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0443 (Temp: 0.9894 | Wind: 1.0554)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BAL 4.1 - NYY 4.6
Simulated Avg: BAL 4.1 - NYY 4.6
Win Probability: BAL 45.2% - NYY 54.8%
Fair Moneyline: BAL +121 / NYY -121
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 7.5: 58.2%
Under 7.5: 41.8%
BAL +1.5: 61.9%
NYY -1.5: 38.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BAL 2.4 - NYY 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: BAL 2.4 - NYY 2.5
F5 Win Prob: BAL 47.5% - NYY 52.4% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: BAL +110 / NYY -110
F5 Avg Total: 4.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BAL ML +100 +121 -4.8%
NYY ML -120 -121 +0.2%
BAL +1.5 -208 -163 -5.6%
NYY -1.5 +170 +163 +1.0%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +5.8%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -10.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox
Regular Season | September 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Shota Imanaga Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC BOS Lg Avg
Record 88-73 87-74
R/Game 5.24 4.27 4.48
RA/Game 4.35 3.76 4.48
OPS 0.765 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.329 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.13 3.52 4.17
FIP 4.47 3.50 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.23 1.30
K/9 7.84 8.75 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.584 0.558 0.500
Park Factor 105 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC BOS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.39 3.47 4.22
BP FIP 4.59 3.45 4.05
BP WHIP 1.34 1.26
BP K/9 8.69 9.63
BP Quality* 49.0 41.4 46.0
BP IP 510.7 412.0
Bullpen Edge: BOS (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
BOS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Raymond Burgos (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
BOS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Fenway Park
Temperature: 60°F
Wind: 16 mph (gusts 36 mph)
Precip Chance: 37%
Conditions: Mild (60°F), strong wind out (16 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0608 (Temp: 0.9858 | Wind: 1.0760)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 5.5 - BOS 4.9
Simulated Avg: CHC 5.5 - BOS 4.9
Win Probability: CHC 55.4% - BOS 44.6%
Fair Moneyline: CHC -124 / BOS +124
Avg Total Runs: 10.4
Over 7.5: 70.6%
Under 7.5: 29.4%
CHC -1.5: 41.1%
BOS +1.5: 58.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 3.2 - BOS 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 3.2 - BOS 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CHC 59.3% - BOS 40.7% (Tie: 14.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -146 / BOS +146
F5 Avg Total: 5.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML -126 -124 -0.3%
BOS ML +104 +124 -4.5%
CHC -1.5 +136 +144 -1.3%
BOS +1.5 -164 -144 -3.2%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +18.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -23.0%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 7.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 18.2%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Houston Astros @ Athletics
Regular Season | September 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Peter Lambert Home: Seth Johnson
ERA: 3.87 ERA: 6.19
WHIP: 1.26 WHIP: 1.69
K/9: 8.96 K/9: 10.69
BB/9: 3.46 BB/9: 5.06
FIP: 3.7 FIP: 4.44
IP: 153.7 IP: 32.0
xERA: 3.73 xERA: 4.69
xwOBA: 0.298 xwOBA: 0.331
Pitcher Edge: HOU (Peter Lambert)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat HOU ATH Lg Avg
Record 80-81 64-97
R/Game 4.50 4.34 4.48
RA/Game 4.76 5.76 4.48
OPS 0.731 0.721 0.719
wOBA 0.311 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.48 5.48 4.17
FIP 4.35 4.78 4.03
WHIP 1.34 1.51 1.30
K/9 8.85 8.53 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.475 0.373 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat HOU ATH Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.14 5.75 4.22
BP FIP 4.23 4.70 4.05
BP WHIP 1.28 1.61
BP K/9 8.95 9.03
BP Quality* 49.0 59.2 46.0
BP IP 544.0 620.0
Bullpen Edge: HOU (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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HOU: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Ronel Blanco (30 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bennett Sousa (2 of last 3 days)
ATH: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Yunior Tur (46 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Scott Blewett (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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HOU (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATH (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oakland Coliseum
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9700 (Temp: 0.9921 | Wind: 0.9777)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: HOU 5.4 - ATH 4.3
Simulated Avg: HOU 5.4 - ATH 4.3
Win Probability: HOU 60.0% - ATH 40.0%
Fair Moneyline: HOU -150 / ATH +150
Avg Total Runs: 9.7
Over 10.0: 40.4%
Under 10.0: 51.2%
HOU -1.5: 44.9%
ATH +1.5: 55.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: HOU 3.0 - ATH 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: HOU 2.9 - ATH 2.2
F5 Win Prob: HOU 61.9% - ATH 38.1% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: HOU -163 / ATH +163
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
HOU ML -192 -150 -5.8%
ATH ML +158 +150 +1.3%
HOU -1.5 -120 +123 -9.7%
ATH +1.5 +100 -123 +5.1%
O 10.0 -110 N/A -12.0%
U 10.0 -110 N/A -1.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
Regular Season | September 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Carson Seymour
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD SF Lg Avg
Record 99-62 65-96
R/Game 4.94 4.15 4.48
RA/Game 3.72 4.69 4.48
OPS 0.763 0.708 0.719
wOBA 0.327 0.303 0.310
ERA 3.57 4.34 4.17
FIP 3.56 4.11 4.03
WHIP 1.14 1.36 1.30
K/9 9.50 7.59 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.627 0.444 0.500
Park Factor 95 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD SF Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.97 4.61 4.22
BP FIP 3.69 4.48 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.50
BP K/9 9.85 7.16
BP Quality* 45.8 52.5 46.0
BP IP 506.0 538.3
Bullpen Edge: LAD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Evan Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tanner Scott (2 of last 3 days)
SF: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Tristan Beck (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SF (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Oracle Park
Temperature: 65°F
Wind: 12 mph (gusts 17 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (65°F), wind in (12 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9689 (Temp: 0.9911 | Wind: 0.9775)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 5.7 - SF 3.9
Simulated Avg: LAD 5.7 - SF 3.9
Win Probability: LAD 66.2% - SF 33.8%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -196 / SF +196
Avg Total Runs: 9.6
Over 8.5: 56.5%
Under 8.5: 43.5%
LAD -1.5: 51.7%
SF +1.5: 48.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 3.5 - SF 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 3.5 - SF 2.1
F5 Win Prob: LAD 68.8% - SF 31.2% (Tie: 14.0%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -220 / SF +220
F5 Avg Total: 5.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -250 -196 -5.2%
SF ML +202 +196 +0.7%
LAD -1.5 -142 -107 -7.0%
SF +1.5 +118 +107 +2.4%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +4.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -8.9%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Regular Season | September 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Martinez Home: Zack Wheeler
ERA: 2.94 ERA: 3.06
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 5.48 K/9: 10.85
BB/9: 1.27 BB/9: 2.71
FIP: 3.92 FIP: 3.26
IP: 177.3 IP: 156.0
xERA: 3.92 xERA: 2.92
xwOBA: 0.305 xwOBA: 0.265
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Zack Wheeler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB PHI Lg Avg
Record 98-63 87-74
R/Game 4.55 4.39 4.48
RA/Game 3.99 4.32 4.48
OPS 0.728 0.704 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.304 0.310
ERA 3.68 4.05 4.17
FIP 3.91 3.64 4.03
WHIP 1.13 1.29 1.30
K/9 8.26 9.88 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.560 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 103 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB PHI Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.60 4.39 4.22
BP FIP 3.83 3.63 4.05
BP WHIP 1.15 1.36
BP K/9 8.78 9.92
BP Quality* 50.2 50.4 46.0
BP IP 482.0 560.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
UNAVAIL: Cole Sulser (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Cam Booser (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brody Hopkins (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ty Johnson (38 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Steven Matz (2 of last 3 days)
PHI: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: José Alvarado (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: José Urquidy (50 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Chase Shugart (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tim Mayza (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
PHI (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
Temperature: 63°F
Wind: 13 mph (gusts 30 mph)
Precip Chance: 32%
Conditions: Mild (63°F), wind out (13 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0512 (Temp: 0.9890 | Wind: 1.0630)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 4.3 - PHI 4.7
Simulated Avg: TB 4.3 - PHI 4.7
Win Probability: TB 46.0% - PHI 54.0%
Fair Moneyline: TB +117 / PHI -117
Avg Total Runs: 9.0
Over 6.5: 69.2%
Under 6.5: 30.9%
TB +1.5: 62.5%
PHI -1.5: 37.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TB 2.0 - PHI 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 2.0 - PHI 2.4
F5 Win Prob: TB 43.8% - PHI 56.2% (Tie: 17.4%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +128 / PHI -128
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +144 +117 +5.0%
PHI ML -175 -117 -9.6%
TB +1.5 -166 -167 +0.1%
PHI -1.5 +137 +167 -4.7%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +16.8%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -21.5%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 6.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 16.8%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01226
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Season | September 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Brandon Williamson Home: Max Scherzer
ERA: 4.89 ERA: 6.14
WHIP: 1.41 WHIP: 1.36
K/9: 5.98 K/9: 7.07
BB/9: 4.89 BB/9: 3.94
FIP: 5.49 FIP: 5.35
IP: 49.7 IP: 77.7
xERA: 5.88 xERA: 4.35
xwOBA: 0.365 xwOBA: 0.32
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CIN TOR Lg Avg
Record 75-86 78-83
R/Game 4.13 3.99 4.48
RA/Game 5.10 4.30 4.48
OPS 0.700 0.691 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.299 0.310
ERA 4.83 3.91 4.17
FIP 4.63 3.90 4.03
WHIP 1.45 1.30 1.30
K/9 8.11 8.85 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.405 0.466 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CIN TOR Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.76 3.30 4.22
BP FIP 4.60 3.88 4.05
BP WHIP 1.46 1.25
BP K/9 8.69 8.42
BP Quality* 56.0 43.0 46.0
BP IP 600.7 354.7
Bullpen Edge: TOR (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CIN: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Connor Phillips (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tejay Antone (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Graham Ashcraft (2 of last 3 days)
TOR: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: John Klein (66 pitches yesterday)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CIN (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TOR (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Rogers Centre
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0593 (Temp: 1.0060 | Wind: 1.0529)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CIN 4.8 - TOR 5.5
Simulated Avg: CIN 4.8 - TOR 5.5
Win Probability: CIN 43.7% - TOR 56.3%
Fair Moneyline: CIN +129 / TOR -129
Avg Total Runs: 10.3
Over 8.5: 61.9%
Under 8.5: 38.1%
CIN +1.5: 58.3%
TOR -1.5: 41.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CIN 3.0 - TOR 3.1
F5 Simulated Avg: CIN 3.0 - TOR 3.1
F5 Win Prob: CIN 48.4% - TOR 51.6% (Tie: 14.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CIN +107 / TOR -107
F5 Avg Total: 6.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CIN ML +149 +129 +3.5%
TOR ML -181 -129 -8.1%
CIN +1.5 -136 -140 +0.7%
TOR -1.5 +113 +140 -5.3%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +9.5%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -14.3%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Over 8.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 61.9% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 9.5%
Fair ML: -163 | Kelly: 5.00%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01227
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
Regular Season | September 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Parker Messick Home: Daniel Lynch IV
ERA: 2.55 ERA: 4.13
WHIP: 1.04 WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 9.38 K/9: 6.02
BB/9: 2.36 BB/9: 2.9
FIP: 3.01 FIP: 4.18
IP: 183.3 IP: 80.7
xERA: 3.08 xERA: 4.57
xwOBA: 0.272 xwOBA: 0.327
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Parker Messick)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE KC Lg Avg
Record 85-76 68-93
R/Game 4.20 4.27 4.48
RA/Game 4.12 5.02 4.48
OPS 0.696 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.308 0.310
ERA 3.77 4.79 4.17
FIP 3.65 4.59 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.41 1.30
K/9 9.59 7.43 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.508 0.426 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE KC Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.61 5.92 4.22
BP FIP 3.49 5.25 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.64
BP K/9 9.95 7.78
BP Quality* 46.6 67.4 46.0
BP IP 535.7 547.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Shawn Armstrong (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Smith (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Hunter Gaddis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Erik Sabrowski (2 of last 3 days)
KC: TAXED (penalty +7.5)
TIRED: Alex Lange (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Anthony Gose (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Spencer Bivens (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Jose Cuas (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Nolan Hoffman (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
KC (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Kauffman Stadium
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Mild (74°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0220 (Temp: 1.0024 | Wind: 1.0195)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 4.9 - KC 3.6
Simulated Avg: CLE 5.0 - KC 3.6
Win Probability: CLE 62.8% - KC 37.2%
Fair Moneyline: CLE -169 / KC +169
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 8.5: 47.8%
Under 8.5: 52.2%
CLE -1.5: 46.6%
KC +1.5: 53.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 2.4 - KC 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 2.4 - KC 1.7
F5 Win Prob: CLE 63.6% - KC 36.4% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE -175 / KC +175
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -112 -169 +10.0%
KC ML -108 +169 -14.7%
CLE -1.5 +142 +115 +5.2%
KC +1.5 -172 -115 -9.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -4.6%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -0.2%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers
Regular Season | September 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Jared Jones Home: River Ryan
ERA: 3.87 ERA: 0.0
WHIP: 1.12 WHIP: 1.0
K/9: 10.87 K/9: 9.0
BB/9: 2.86 BB/9: 3.0
FIP: 3.23 FIP: 2.1
IP: 97.7 IP: 3.0
xERA: 3.3 xERA: 3.63
xwOBA: 0.281 xwOBA: 0.294
Pitcher Edge: DET (River Ryan)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT DET Lg Avg
Record 81-80 76-85
R/Game 4.74 4.48 4.48
RA/Game 4.58 4.02 4.48
OPS 0.734 0.722 0.719
wOBA 0.319 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.17 3.66 4.17
FIP 3.63 3.85 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.22 1.30
K/9 9.29 8.22 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.516 0.549 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat PIT DET Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.76 4.13 4.22
BP FIP 3.42 4.37 4.05
BP WHIP 1.31 1.30
BP K/9 9.53 8.30
BP Quality* 51.8 47.0 46.0
BP IP 461.7 494.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT: TAXED (penalty +10.5)
UNAVAIL: Evan Sisk (B2B, 25 pitches)
TIRED: Mason Montgomery (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Carmen Mlodzinski (49 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Yohan Ramírez (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Gregory Soto (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Luke Weaver (2 of last 3 days)
DET: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PIT (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
DET (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Comerica Park
Temperature: 75°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (75°F), wind out (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0523 (Temp: 1.0051 | Wind: 1.0469)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: PIT 4.0 - DET 4.5
Simulated Avg: PIT 4.0 - DET 4.5
Win Probability: PIT 45.0% - DET 55.0%
Fair Moneyline: PIT +122 / DET -122
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 8.0: 47.1%
Under 8.0: 43.5%
PIT -1.5: 29.2%
DET +1.5: 70.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: PIT 1.9 - DET 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: PIT 1.9 - DET 2.1
F5 Win Prob: PIT 45.6% - DET 54.4% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PIT +119 / DET -119
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
PIT ML -117 +122 -8.9%
DET ML -103 -122 +4.3%
PIT -1.5 +144 +242 -11.8%
DET +1.5 -175 -242 +7.2%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -5.3%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.9%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Detroit Tigers +1.5 (Run Line) [-175]
Model: 70.8% | Market: 63.6% | Edge: 7.2%
Fair ML: -242 | Kelly: 4.92%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01228
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | September 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Michael Soroka Home: Randy Vásquez
ERA: 3.31 ERA: 4.01
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 1.3
K/9: 8.89 K/9: 5.68
BB/9: 2.18 BB/9: 2.47
FIP: 2.9 FIP: 4.21
IP: 111.3 IP: 134.7
xERA: 4.09 xERA: 5.62
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.358
Pitcher Edge: ARI (Michael Soroka)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SD Lg Avg
Record 86-75 90-71
R/Game 4.57 4.43 4.48
RA/Game 4.48 4.20 4.48
OPS 0.721 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.308 0.310
ERA 4.14 3.99 4.17
FIP 4.20 4.06 4.03
WHIP 1.28 1.30 1.30
K/9 7.10 8.27 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.509 0.524 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ARI SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.45 2.79 4.22
BP FIP 3.46 2.98 4.05
BP WHIP 1.19 1.16
BP K/9 7.90 11.13
BP Quality* 44.2 43.4 46.0
BP IP 508.3 335.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Jose Cabrera (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Dennis Santana (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Kevin Ginkel (2 of last 3 days)
SD: TAXED (penalty +9.0)
TIRED: Mason Miller (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Yuki Matsui (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Adrian Morejon (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: David Morgan (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Bradgley Rodriguez (34 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Jason Adam (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ARI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 80°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 7%
Conditions: Warm (80°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0125 (Temp: 1.0125 | Wind: 1.0000)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ARI 4.5 - SD 3.9
Simulated Avg: ARI 4.5 - SD 3.9
Win Probability: ARI 56.9% - SD 43.1%
Fair Moneyline: ARI -132 / SD +132
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 8.0: 46.0%
Under 8.0: 44.3%
ARI -1.5: 40.4%
SD +1.5: 59.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: ARI 2.7 - SD 2.0
F5 Simulated Avg: ARI 2.7 - SD 2.0
F5 Win Prob: ARI 62.5% - SD 37.5% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ARI -167 / SD +167
F5 Avg Total: 4.7
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
ARI ML -148 -132 -2.8%
SD ML +123 +132 -1.8%
ARI -1.5 +118 +147 -5.4%
SD +1.5 -143 -147 +0.7%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -6.4%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -8.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Regular Season | September 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Yusei Kikuchi Home: Logan Gilbert
ERA: 4.88 ERA: 3.81
WHIP: 1.55 WHIP: 1.1
K/9: 8.62 K/9: 9.74
BB/9: 4.16 BB/9: 2.37
FIP: 4.03 FIP: 3.8
IP: 62.7 IP: 182.0
xERA: 5.09 xERA: 3.7
xwOBA: 0.343 xwOBA: 0.297
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SEA Lg Avg
Record 62-99 75-86
R/Game 4.05 4.08 4.48
RA/Game 4.63 4.47 4.48
OPS 0.679 0.692 0.719
wOBA 0.295 0.301 0.310
ERA 4.29 4.21 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.85 4.03
WHIP 1.35 1.27 1.30
K/9 9.05 8.74 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.439 0.459 0.500
Park Factor 94 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat LAA SEA Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.79 4.32 4.22
BP FIP 4.18 4.11 4.05
BP WHIP 1.44 1.36
BP K/9 9.12 8.70
BP Quality* 50.7 48.2 46.0
BP IP 436.0 533.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Mitch Farris (43 pitches yesterday)
SEA: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Michael Rucker (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
LAA (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SEA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: T-Mobile Park
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 7 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), light wind (7 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9723 (Temp: 0.9849 | Wind: 0.9873)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: LAA 3.5 - SEA 4.2
Simulated Avg: LAA 3.5 - SEA 4.2
Win Probability: LAA 42.1% - SEA 57.9%
Fair Moneyline: LAA +137 / SEA -137
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.0: 49.0%
Under 7.0: 40.8%
LAA +1.5: 60.6%
SEA -1.5: 39.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: LAA 1.8 - SEA 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: LAA 1.8 - SEA 2.3
F5 Win Prob: LAA 41.0% - SEA 59.0% (Tie: 18.1%)
F5 Fair ML: LAA +144 / SEA -144
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
LAA ML +139 +137 +0.3%
SEA ML -168 -137 -4.8%
LAA +1.5 -163 -154 -1.4%
SEA -1.5 +134 +154 -3.3%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -3.4%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -11.6%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins
Regular Season | September 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: MacKenzie Gore Home: Dean Kremer
ERA: 4.59 ERA: 4.97
WHIP: 1.34 WHIP: 1.2
K/9: 9.18 K/9: 8.86
BB/9: 3.69 BB/9: 3.13
FIP: 3.74 FIP: 4.83
IP: 170.7 IP: 83.3
xERA: 4.09 xERA: 4.48
xwOBA: 0.311 xwOBA: 0.324
Pitcher Edge: TEX (MacKenzie Gore)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX MIN Lg Avg
Record 80-81 76-85
R/Game 4.16 4.55 4.48
RA/Game 4.43 4.93 4.48
OPS 0.713 0.719 0.719
wOBA 0.308 0.311 0.310
ERA 4.30 4.56 4.17
FIP 3.99 4.06 4.03
WHIP 1.30 1.36 1.30
K/9 8.49 8.68 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.471 0.464 0.500
Park Factor 101 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat TEX MIN Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.49 4.47 4.22
BP FIP 4.28 3.91 4.05
BP WHIP 1.38 1.43
BP K/9 8.44 9.15
BP Quality* 51.3 49.9 46.0
BP IP 557.7 573.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Tyler Alexander (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Robert Garcia (2 of last 3 days)
MIN: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Travis Adams (40 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Taylor Rogers (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
TEX (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIN (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Target Field
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9900 (Temp: 0.9922 | Wind: 0.9978)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: TEX 4.5 - MIN 4.8
Simulated Avg: TEX 4.5 - MIN 4.8
Win Probability: TEX 47.4% - MIN 52.5%
Fair Moneyline: TEX +111 / MIN -111
Avg Total Runs: 9.3
Over 8.0: 54.6%
Under 8.0: 36.3%
TEX -1.5: 32.2%
MIN +1.5: 67.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: TEX 2.6 - MIN 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: TEX 2.6 - MIN 2.5
F5 Win Prob: TEX 51.7% - MIN 48.3% (Tie: 15.8%)
F5 Fair ML: TEX -107 / MIN +107
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
TEX ML -114 +111 -5.8%
MIN ML -105 -111 +1.3%
TEX -1.5 +142 +211 -9.2%
MIN +1.5 -172 -211 +4.6%
O 8.0 -110 N/A +2.2%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -16.1%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | September 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Kyle Freeland Home: Anthony Kay
ERA: 6.58 ERA: 4.53
WHIP: 1.52 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 7.26 K/9: 7.35
BB/9: 1.99 BB/9: 3.18
FIP: 4.82 FIP: 4.31
IP: 131.3 IP: 153.0
xERA: 5.47 xERA: 5.05
xwOBA: 0.354 xwOBA: 0.342
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Anthony Kay)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL CWS Lg Avg
Record 58-103 83-78
R/Game 4.66 4.80 4.48
RA/Game 5.84 4.46 4.48
OPS 0.739 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.318 0.313 0.310
ERA 5.60 4.14 4.17
FIP 4.73 4.06 4.03
WHIP 1.53 1.31 1.30
K/9 7.05 8.35 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.398 0.533 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat COL CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.92 4.05 4.22
BP FIP 4.32 4.31 4.05
BP WHIP 1.51 1.32
BP K/9 7.74 8.40
BP Quality* 57.2 52.7 46.0
BP IP 331.3 287.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Jordan Romano (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brennan Bernardino (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Ryan Feltner (64 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Juan Mejia (2 of last 3 days)
CWS: TAXED (penalty +6.0)
TIRED: Bryan Hudson (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Tyler Davis (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Noah Schultz (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Huascar Brazobán (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
COL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0171 (Temp: 0.9899 | Wind: 1.0274)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: COL 5.2 - CWS 6.4
Simulated Avg: COL 5.2 - CWS 6.4
Win Probability: COL 40.5% - CWS 59.5%
Fair Moneyline: COL +147 / CWS -147
Avg Total Runs: 11.6
Over 8.5: 70.4%
Under 8.5: 29.6%
COL +1.5: 54.1%
CWS -1.5: 45.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: COL 2.9 - CWS 3.6
F5 Simulated Avg: COL 2.9 - CWS 3.6
F5 Win Prob: COL 40.4% - CWS 59.7% (Tie: 12.9%)
F5 Fair ML: COL +148 / CWS -148
F5 Avg Total: 6.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
COL ML +143 +147 -0.6%
CWS ML -174 -147 -4.0%
COL +1.5 -142 -118 -4.6%
CWS -1.5 +118 +118 +0.1%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +18.0%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -22.8%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 8.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 18.0%
[HELD FOR REVIEW] high-edge total -> output/TOTALS_REVIEW_QUEUE.json
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Regular Season | September 27, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: JR Ritchie Home: Janson Junk
ERA: 4.79 ERA: 4.31
WHIP: 1.46 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 8.78 K/9: 6.35
BB/9: 5.45 BB/9: 2.42
FIP: 5.27 FIP: 4.02
IP: 67.7 IP: 119.0
xERA: 4.92 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.338 xwOBA: 0.317
Pitcher Edge: MIA (Janson Junk)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL MIA Lg Avg
Record 94-67 79-82
R/Game 4.59 4.41 4.48
RA/Game 3.86 4.40 4.48
OPS 0.720 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.314 0.310
ERA 3.62 4.10 4.17
FIP 3.99 3.98 4.03
WHIP 1.24 1.28 1.30
K/9 8.45 8.33 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.579 0.501 0.500
Park Factor 93 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat ATL MIA Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.48 4.59 4.22
BP FIP 3.57 3.97 4.05
BP WHIP 1.20 1.33
BP K/9 9.05 9.01
BP Quality* 43.0 51.4 46.0
BP IP 439.7 549.3
Bullpen Edge: ATL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: TAXED (penalty +3.0)
TIRED: Dylan Dodd (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Victor Mederos (36 pitches yesterday)
MIA: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Dax Fulton (42 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Bradley Blalock (54 pitches yesterday)
TIRED: Victor Vodnik (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIA (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: LoanDepot Park
Temperature: 83°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 8%
Conditions: Warm (83°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0156 (Temp: 1.0165 | Wind: 0.9992)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: ATL 4.5 - MIA 4.7
Simulated Avg: ATL 4.5 - MIA 4.7
Win Probability: ATL 47.9% - MIA 52.0%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +109 / MIA -109
Avg Total Runs: 9.1
Over 8.5: 52.8%
Under 8.5: 47.2%
ATL -1.5: 32.8%
MIA +1.5: 67.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 2.4 - MIA 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 2.4 - MIA 2.8
F5 Win Prob: ATL 43.0% - MIA 57.0% (Tie: 15.5%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +132 / MIA -132
F5 Avg Total: 5.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML +100 +109 -2.1%
MIA ML -120 -109 -2.5%
ATL -1.5 +168 +205 -4.6%
MIA +1.5 -205 -205 +0.0%
O 8.5 -110 N/A +0.4%
U 8.5 -110 N/A -5.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | September 27, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Andre Pallante Home: Jacob Misiorowski
ERA: 3.61 ERA: 1.86
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 0.8
K/9: 6.08 K/9: 13.13
BB/9: 2.81 BB/9: 2.23
FIP: 3.6 FIP: 2.0
IP: 157.0 IP: 169.3
xERA: 4.03 xERA: 2.07
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.223
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat STL MIL Lg Avg
Record 77-84 102-59
R/Game 4.45 5.13 4.48
RA/Game 4.61 3.81 4.48
OPS 0.692 0.744 0.719
wOBA 0.300 0.320 0.310
ERA 4.25 3.51 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.57 4.03
WHIP 1.36 1.18 1.30
K/9 7.98 9.62 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.483 0.632 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat STL MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.45 3.48 4.22
BP FIP 4.01 3.61 4.05
BP WHIP 1.38 1.25
BP K/9 8.34 9.03
BP Quality* 51.7 45.2 46.0
BP IP 576.0 569.3
Bullpen Edge: MIL (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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STL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Gordon Graceffo (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Cade Winquest (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Brycen Mautz (2 of last 3 days)
MIL: TAXED (penalty +4.5)
TIRED: Aaron Ashby (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: JoJo Romero (2 of last 3 days)
TIRED: Antonio Senzatela (2 of last 3 days)
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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STL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0112 (Temp: 0.9936 | Wind: 1.0177)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: STL 3.0 - MIL 5.2
Simulated Avg: STL 3.0 - MIL 5.2
Win Probability: STL 28.1% - MIL 71.9%
Fair Moneyline: STL +256 / MIL -256
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 7.0: 54.0%
Under 7.0: 36.2%
STL +1.5: 44.6%
MIL -1.5: 55.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: STL 1.2 - MIL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: STL 1.2 - MIL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: STL 24.1% - MIL 75.9% (Tie: 17.1%)
F5 Fair ML: STL +315 / MIL -315
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
STL ML +169 +256 -9.0%
MIL ML -206 -256 +4.5%
STL +1.5 -131 +124 -12.1%
MIL -1.5 +108 -124 +7.3%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +1.6%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -16.1%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (Run Line) [+108]
Model: 55.4% | Market: 48.1% | Edge: 7.3%
Fair ML: -124 | Kelly: 3.53%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01229