2026-09-29
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-29
Games: 4 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | September 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Jesús Luzardo Home: Chris Sale
ERA: 2.86 ERA: 2.16
WHIP: 1.07 WHIP: 0.98
K/9: 11.07 K/9: 11.07
BB/9: 2.6 BB/9: 1.72
FIP: 2.59 FIP: 2.01
IP: 179.7 IP: 162.7
xERA: 2.83 xERA: 2.97
xwOBA: 0.261 xwOBA: 0.267
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI ATL Lg Avg
Record 88-74 94-68
R/Game 4.40 4.58 4.48
RA/Game 4.31 3.86 4.48
OPS 0.707 0.718 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.04 3.63 4.17
FIP 3.64 4.00 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.87 8.45 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.577 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.40 3.47 4.22
BP FIP 3.64 3.56 4.05
BP WHIP 1.36 1.19
BP K/9 9.93 9.07
BP Quality* 44.5 39.9 46.1
BP IP 562.0 440.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 82°F
Wind: 1 mph (gusts 2 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (82°F), calm
Weather Factor: 1.0143 (Temp: 1.0157 | Wind: 0.9986)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 3.1 - ATL 3.8
Simulated Avg: PHI 3.1 - ATL 3.8
Win Probability: PHI 41.7% - ATL 58.3%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +140 / ATL -140
Avg Total Runs: 6.9
Over 6.5: 50.9%
Under 6.5: 49.1%
PHI +1.5: 61.3%
ATL -1.5: 38.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 1.4 - ATL 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 1.4 - ATL 1.8
F5 Win Prob: PHI 42.7% - ATL 57.3% (Tie: 22.2%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +134 / ATL -134
F5 Avg Total: 3.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML +153 +140 +2.2%
ATL ML -186 -140 -6.8%
PHI +1.5 -148 -158 +1.6%
ATL -1.5 +123 +158 -6.1%
O 6.5 -110 N/A -1.5%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -3.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | September 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Hagen Smith Home: AJ Blubaugh
ERA: 1.29 ERA: 3.66
WHIP: 0.96 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 13.18 K/9: 8.81
BB/9: 5.14 BB/9: 3.94
FIP: 2.35 FIP: 4.21
IP: 28.0 IP: 96.0
xERA: 2.45 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.243 xwOBA: 0.317
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Hagen Smith)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS HOU Lg Avg
Record 84-78 81-81
R/Game 4.79 4.53 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 4.73 4.48
OPS 0.726 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.12 4.45 4.17
FIP 4.06 4.34 4.03
WHIP 1.31 1.34 1.30
K/9 8.35 8.84 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.534 0.480 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.03 4.11 4.22
BP FIP 4.32 4.23 4.05
BP WHIP 1.31 1.28
BP K/9 8.40 8.95
BP Quality* 48.1 45.9 46.1
BP IP 290.3 547.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: TAXED (penalty +1.5)
TIRED: Sean Newcomb (2 of last 3 days)
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 9%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0104 (Temp: 1.0251 | Wind: 0.9857)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.7 - HOU 4.0
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.7 - HOU 4.0
Win Probability: CWS 56.9% - HOU 43.1%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -132 / HOU +132
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 8.0: 48.7%
Under 8.0: 41.8%
CWS +1.5: 72.5%
HOU -1.5: 27.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.6 - HOU 1.8
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.6 - HOU 1.8
F5 Win Prob: CWS 63.6% - HOU 36.4% (Tie: 16.9%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -175 / HOU +175
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +105 -132 +8.1%
HOU ML -126 +132 -12.6%
CWS +1.5 -195 -264 +6.4%
HOU -1.5 +160 +264 -11.0%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -3.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -10.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | September 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Payton Tolle Home: Cam Schlittler
ERA: 3.03 ERA: 1.95
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 0.92
K/9: 10.35 K/9: 11.11
BB/9: 2.42 BB/9: 2.28
FIP: 2.92 FIP: 2.46
IP: 148.7 IP: 193.7
xERA: 2.7 xERA: 2.85
xwOBA: 0.255 xwOBA: 0.262
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
Record 87-75 93-68
R/Game 4.25 4.59 4.48
RA/Game 3.77 3.73 4.48
OPS 0.716 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.54 3.24 4.17
FIP 3.52 3.59 4.03
WHIP 1.23 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.74 9.05 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.555 0.593 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.51 3.28 4.22
BP FIP 3.51 4.03 4.05
BP WHIP 1.26 1.24
BP K/9 9.57 8.20
BP Quality* 40.3 42.1 46.1
BP IP 415.7 573.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 61°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 6 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Mild (61°F), light wind (3 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9790 (Temp: 0.9870 | Wind: 0.9919)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 3.0 - NYY 3.5
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.0 - NYY 3.5
Win Probability: BOS 43.5% - NYY 56.5%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +130 / NYY -130
Avg Total Runs: 6.5
Over 6.0: 46.2%
Under 6.0: 42.1%
BOS +1.5: 63.8%
NYY -1.5: 36.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 1.4 - NYY 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.4 - NYY 1.7
F5 Win Prob: BOS 41.2% - NYY 58.8% (Tie: 22.6%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +143 / NYY -143
F5 Avg Total: 3.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML +109 +130 -4.4%
NYY ML -132 -130 -0.4%
BOS +1.5 -206 -176 -3.5%
NYY -1.5 +169 +176 -1.0%
O 6.0 -110 N/A -6.1%
U 6.0 -110 N/A -10.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | September 29, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Matthew Boyd Home: Michael King
ERA: 3.91 ERA: 3.21
WHIP: 1.21 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 6.82 K/9: 7.74
BB/9: 2.77 BB/9: 3.41
FIP: 4.05 FIP: 3.92
IP: 126.7 IP: 185.0
xERA: 4.66 xERA: 4.42
xwOBA: 0.33 xwOBA: 0.322
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC SD Lg Avg
Record 89-73 91-71
R/Game 5.25 4.46 4.48
RA/Game 4.34 4.20 4.48
OPS 0.767 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.330 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.12 3.99 4.17
FIP 4.47 4.06 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.29 1.30
K/9 7.84 8.24 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.586 0.527 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.44 2.79 4.22
BP FIP 4.60 2.98 4.05
BP WHIP 1.36 1.16
BP K/9 8.65 11.13
BP Quality* 49.4 34.4 46.1
BP IP 521.0 335.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 72°F
Wind: 2 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (72°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9946 (Temp: 0.9995 | Wind: 0.9951)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 4.2 - SD 4.5
Simulated Avg: CHC 4.2 - SD 4.5
Win Probability: CHC 47.2% - SD 52.8%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +112 / SD -112
Avg Total Runs: 8.7
Over 7.0: 58.5%
Under 7.0: 32.2%
CHC +1.5: 63.6%
SD -1.5: 36.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 2.6 - SD 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 2.6 - SD 2.4
F5 Win Prob: CHC 52.3% - SD 47.7% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC -110 / SD +110
F5 Avg Total: 5.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML +108 +112 -0.9%
SD ML -130 -112 -3.7%
CHC +1.5 -206 -174 -3.8%
SD -1.5 +168 +174 -0.9%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +6.1%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -20.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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