2026-09-30
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-09-30
Games: 4 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | September 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Cristopher Sánchez Home: Tyler Mahle
ERA: 2.91 ERA: 3.99
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 10.04 K/9: 8.28
BB/9: 1.96 BB/9: 2.78
FIP: 2.71 FIP: 3.93
IP: 207.0 IP: 149.0
xERA: 3.39 xERA: 3.95
xwOBA: 0.285 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: PHI (Cristopher Sánchez)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI ATL Lg Avg
Record 88-74 94-68
R/Game 4.40 4.58 4.48
RA/Game 4.31 3.86 4.48
OPS 0.707 0.718 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.04 3.63 4.17
FIP 3.64 4.00 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.87 8.45 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.577 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.40 3.47 4.22
BP FIP 3.64 3.56 4.05
BP WHIP 1.36 1.19
BP K/9 9.93 9.07
BP Quality* 44.5 39.9 46.1
BP IP 562.0 440.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 85°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 7 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Hot (85°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0175 (Temp: 1.0201 | Wind: 0.9974)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.1 - ATL 4.0
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.1 - ATL 4.0
Win Probability: PHI 50.6% - ATL 49.4%
Fair Moneyline: PHI -102 / ATL +102
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.0: 52.8%
Under 7.0: 37.4%
PHI -1.5: 33.6%
ATL +1.5: 66.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.4 - ATL 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.4 - ATL 1.9
F5 Win Prob: PHI 58.4% - ATL 41.6% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI -140 / ATL +140
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -117 -102 -3.3%
ATL ML -103 +102 -1.3%
PHI -1.5 +152 +197 -6.1%
ATL +1.5 -185 -197 +1.5%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +0.4%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -15.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
Regular Season | September 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Burke Home: Hunter Brown
ERA: 3.34 ERA: 3.19
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 9.66 K/9: 10.4
BB/9: 3.24 BB/9: 4.61
FIP: 3.47 FIP: 3.66
IP: 172.3 IP: 107.3
xERA: 3.78 xERA: 3.32
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.282
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS HOU Lg Avg
Record 84-78 81-81
R/Game 4.79 4.53 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 4.73 4.48
OPS 0.726 0.732 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.312 0.310
ERA 4.12 4.45 4.17
FIP 4.06 4.34 4.03
WHIP 1.31 1.34 1.30
K/9 8.35 8.84 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.534 0.480 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS HOU Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.03 4.11 4.22
BP FIP 4.32 4.23 4.05
BP WHIP 1.31 1.28
BP K/9 8.40 8.95
BP Quality* 46.6 45.9 46.1
BP IP 290.3 547.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
HOU: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
HOU (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Minute Maid Park
Temperature: 90°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 18 mph)
Precip Chance: 6%
Conditions: Hot (90°F), wind in (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9983 (Temp: 1.0269 | Wind: 0.9722)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 4.2 - HOU 4.2
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.2 - HOU 4.2
Win Probability: CWS 49.1% - HOU 50.9%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +104 / HOU -104
Avg Total Runs: 8.4
Over 7.5: 55.8%
Under 7.5: 44.2%
CWS +1.5: 66.0%
HOU -1.5: 34.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.2 - HOU 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.2 - HOU 2.1
F5 Win Prob: CWS 50.4% - HOU 49.6% (Tie: 18.3%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -101 / HOU +101
F5 Avg Total: 4.3
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +122 +104 +4.1%
HOU ML -147 -104 -8.6%
CWS +1.5 -191 -194 +0.3%
HOU -1.5 +157 +194 -4.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +3.4%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -8.2%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | September 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sonny Gray Home: Max Fried
ERA: 2.72 ERA: 2.8
WHIP: 1.15 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 7.93 K/9: 8.31
BB/9: 2.45 BB/9: 2.64
FIP: 3.38 FIP: 2.59
IP: 169.0 IP: 112.7
xERA: 3.87 xERA: 2.51
xwOBA: 0.303 xwOBA: 0.246
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Max Fried)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
Record 87-75 93-68
R/Game 4.25 4.59 4.48
RA/Game 3.77 3.73 4.48
OPS 0.716 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.54 3.24 4.17
FIP 3.52 3.59 4.03
WHIP 1.23 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.74 9.05 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.555 0.593 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat BOS NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.51 3.28 4.22
BP FIP 3.51 4.03 4.05
BP WHIP 1.26 1.24
BP K/9 9.57 8.20
BP Quality* 40.3 42.1 46.1
BP IP 415.7 573.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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BOS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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BOS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 62°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 11 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (62°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9884 (Temp: 0.9878 | Wind: 1.0006)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: BOS 3.1 - NYY 3.9
Simulated Avg: BOS 3.1 - NYY 3.9
Win Probability: BOS 40.3% - NYY 59.7%
Fair Moneyline: BOS +148 / NYY -148
Avg Total Runs: 6.9
Over 6.5: 51.7%
Under 6.5: 48.3%
BOS +1.5: 60.1%
NYY -1.5: 40.0%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: BOS 1.4 - NYY 2.1
F5 Simulated Avg: BOS 1.4 - NYY 2.1
F5 Win Prob: BOS 36.7% - NYY 63.3% (Tie: 20.1%)
F5 Fair ML: BOS +173 / NYY -173
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
BOS ML +120 +148 -5.1%
NYY ML -144 -148 +0.7%
BOS +1.5 -185 -150 -4.9%
NYY -1.5 +152 +150 +0.3%
O 6.5 -110 N/A -0.7%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -4.1%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | September 30, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Kevin Gausman Home: Nick Pivetta
ERA: 4.51 ERA: 2.86
WHIP: 1.27 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 9.32 K/9: 10.9
BB/9: 2.38 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 3.72 FIP: 2.12
IP: 177.7 IP: 34.7
xERA: 4.03 xERA: 3.2
xwOBA: 0.309 xwOBA: 0.277
Pitcher Edge: SD (Nick Pivetta)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CHC SD Lg Avg
Record 89-73 91-71
R/Game 5.25 4.46 4.48
RA/Game 4.34 4.20 4.48
OPS 0.767 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.330 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.12 3.99 4.17
FIP 4.47 4.06 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.29 1.30
K/9 7.84 8.24 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.586 0.527 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CHC SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.44 2.79 4.22
BP FIP 4.60 2.98 4.05
BP WHIP 1.36 1.16
BP K/9 8.65 11.13
BP Quality* 49.4 34.4 46.1
BP IP 521.0 335.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CHC: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CHC (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 69°F
Wind: 3 mph (gusts 3 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (69°F), calm
Weather Factor: 0.9879 (Temp: 0.9959 | Wind: 0.9920)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CHC 3.3 - SD 4.3
Simulated Avg: CHC 3.4 - SD 4.4
Win Probability: CHC 39.1% - SD 60.9%
Fair Moneyline: CHC +156 / SD -156
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.0: 49.0%
Under 7.0: 40.8%
CHC +1.5: 57.2%
SD -1.5: 42.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CHC 1.8 - SD 2.3
F5 Simulated Avg: CHC 1.8 - SD 2.3
F5 Win Prob: CHC 39.8% - SD 60.2% (Tie: 18.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CHC +151 / SD -151
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CHC ML +114 +156 -7.6%
SD ML -137 -156 +3.1%
CHC +1.5 -198 -134 -9.3%
SD -1.5 +162 +134 +4.7%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -3.4%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -11.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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