2026-10-01
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-01
Games: 1 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | October 01, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: TBD
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat PHI ATL Lg Avg
Record 88-74 94-68
R/Game 4.40 4.58 4.48
RA/Game 4.31 3.86 4.48
OPS 0.707 0.718 0.719
wOBA 0.305 0.309 0.310
ERA 4.04 3.63 4.17
FIP 3.64 4.00 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.87 8.45 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.510 0.577 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat PHI ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.40 3.47 4.22
BP FIP 3.64 3.56 4.05
BP WHIP 1.36 1.19
BP K/9 9.93 9.07
BP Quality* 44.5 39.9 46.1
BP IP 562.0 440.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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PHI: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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PHI (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 77°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 9 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (77°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0032 (Temp: 1.0069 | Wind: 0.9964)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: PHI 4.2 - ATL 4.7
Simulated Avg: PHI 4.2 - ATL 4.7
Win Probability: PHI 44.2% - ATL 55.8%
Fair Moneyline: PHI +126 / ATL -126
Avg Total Runs: 8.9
Over 7.5: 59.7%
Under 7.5: 40.3%
PHI -1.5: 29.2%
ATL +1.5: 70.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: PHI 2.5 - ATL 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: PHI 2.5 - ATL 2.6
F5 Win Prob: PHI 47.7% - ATL 52.3% (Tie: 15.7%)
F5 Fair ML: PHI +110 / ATL -110
F5 Avg Total: 5.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
PHI ML -111 +126 -8.4%
ATL ML -109 -126 +3.6%
PHI -1.5 +154 +243 -10.2%
ATL +1.5 -187 -243 +5.7%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +7.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -12.1%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.7% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.3%
Fair ML: -148 | Kelly: 3.84%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01230