2026-10-03
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-03
Games: 4 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | October 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Hagen Smith Home: Parker Messick
ERA: 1.29 ERA: 2.56
WHIP: 0.96 WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 13.18 K/9: 9.32
BB/9: 5.14 BB/9: 2.37
FIP: 2.35 FIP: 3.0
IP: 28.0 IP: 186.3
xERA: 2.45 xERA: 3.15
xwOBA: 0.243 xwOBA: 0.275
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Hagen Smith)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
Record 84-78 85-77
R/Game 4.79 4.19 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 4.12 4.48
OPS 0.726 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.12 3.77 4.17
FIP 4.06 3.66 4.03
WHIP 1.31 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.35 9.58 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.534 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.03 3.61 4.22
BP FIP 4.32 3.53 4.05
BP WHIP 1.31 1.27
BP K/9 8.40 9.94
BP Quality* 46.6 40.8 46.1
BP IP 290.3 540.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 64°F
Wind: 8 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (64°F), light wind (8 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0274 (Temp: 0.9906 | Wind: 1.0371)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 3.6 - CLE 3.6
Simulated Avg: CWS 3.6 - CLE 3.6
Win Probability: CWS 50.4% - CLE 49.6%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -102 / CLE +102
Avg Total Runs: 7.2
Over 7.0: 44.0%
Under 7.0: 45.4%
CWS +1.5: 68.9%
CLE -1.5: 31.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 1.9 - CLE 1.7
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 1.9 - CLE 1.7
F5 Win Prob: CWS 54.3% - CLE 45.7% (Tie: 20.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -119 / CLE +119
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +124 -102 +5.8%
CLE ML -149 +102 -10.2%
CWS +1.5 -181 -222 +4.5%
CLE -1.5 +149 +222 -9.1%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -8.4%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -7.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | October 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Tarik Skubal
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL LAD Lg Avg
Record 94-68 100-62
R/Game 4.58 4.94 4.48
RA/Game 3.86 3.70 4.48
OPS 0.718 0.762 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.327 0.310
ERA 3.63 3.55 4.17
FIP 4.00 3.54 4.03
WHIP 1.24 1.14 1.30
K/9 8.45 9.53 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.577 0.629 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.47 4.03 4.22
BP FIP 3.56 3.70 4.05
BP WHIP 1.19 1.28
BP K/9 9.07 9.88
BP Quality* 39.9 43.1 46.1
BP IP 440.7 448.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 103°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 12 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (103°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0339 (Temp: 1.0462 | Wind: 0.9882)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 3.4 - LAD 4.8
Simulated Avg: ATL 3.4 - LAD 4.8
Win Probability: ATL 35.9% - LAD 64.1%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +178 / LAD -178
Avg Total Runs: 8.2
Over 8.5: 44.3%
Under 8.5: 55.7%
ATL +1.5: 53.3%
LAD -1.5: 46.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 1.6 - LAD 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 1.6 - LAD 2.8
F5 Win Prob: ATL 29.7% - LAD 70.3% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +237 / LAD -237
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML +173 +178 -0.7%
LAD ML -212 -178 -3.9%
ATL +1.5 -119 -114 -1.0%
LAD -1.5 -102 +114 -3.8%
O 8.5 -110 N/A -8.1%
U 8.5 -110 N/A +3.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | October 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Gerrit Cole Home: Drew Rasmussen
ERA: 3.61 ERA: 2.67
WHIP: 1.1 WHIP: 0.91
K/9: 9.28 K/9: 9.1
BB/9: 1.77 BB/9: 1.67
FIP: 3.88 FIP: 2.69
IP: 127.0 IP: 172.0
xERA: 3.78 xERA: 3.06
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.271
Pitcher Edge: TB (Drew Rasmussen)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat NYY TB Lg Avg
Record 93-68 98-64
R/Game 4.59 4.54 4.48
RA/Game 3.73 4.01 4.48
OPS 0.720 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.23 3.70 4.17
FIP 3.59 3.93 4.03
WHIP 1.17 1.14 1.30
K/9 9.05 8.25 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.593 0.557 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat NYY TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.27 3.63 4.22
BP FIP 4.03 3.88 4.05
BP WHIP 1.24 1.15
BP K/9 8.20 8.78
BP Quality* 42.0 41.6 46.1
BP IP 573.0 486.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: NYY 3.3 - TB 4.0
Simulated Avg: NYY 3.3 - TB 4.0
Win Probability: NYY 41.7% - TB 58.3%
Fair Moneyline: NYY +140 / TB -140
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.0: 45.5%
Under 7.0: 44.1%
NYY +1.5: 60.5%
TB -1.5: 39.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: NYY 1.6 - TB 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 1.6 - TB 2.2
F5 Win Prob: NYY 38.1% - TB 61.9% (Tie: 18.8%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY +163 / TB -163
F5 Avg Total: 3.9
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
NYY ML +112 +140 -5.5%
TB ML -135 -140 +0.9%
NYY +1.5 -199 -153 -6.1%
TB -1.5 +163 +153 +1.5%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -6.9%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -8.3%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | October 03, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Robbie Ray Home: Jacob Misiorowski
ERA: 3.59 ERA: 1.8
WHIP: 1.35 WHIP: 0.8
K/9: 7.61 K/9: 12.98
BB/9: 4.56 BB/9: 2.27
FIP: 4.66 FIP: 2.01
IP: 165.7 IP: 174.7
xERA: 4.82 xERA: 2.13
xwOBA: 0.335 xwOBA: 0.226
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Jacob Misiorowski)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD MIL Lg Avg
Record 91-71 103-59
R/Game 4.46 5.14 4.48
RA/Game 4.20 3.81 4.48
OPS 0.717 0.744 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.320 0.310
ERA 3.99 3.51 4.17
FIP 4.06 3.58 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.24 9.61 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.527 0.633 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.79 3.47 4.22
BP FIP 2.98 3.61 4.05
BP WHIP 1.16 1.25
BP K/9 11.13 9.02
BP Quality* 34.4 40.7 46.1
BP IP 335.7 571.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 54°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 5%
Conditions: Cool (54°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9653 (Temp: 0.9786 | Wind: 0.9864)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 2.7 - MIL 4.7
Simulated Avg: SD 2.7 - MIL 4.7
Win Probability: SD 28.9% - MIL 71.1%
Fair Moneyline: SD +246 / MIL -246
Avg Total Runs: 7.4
Over 7.0: 46.0%
Under 7.0: 43.4%
SD +1.5: 46.9%
MIL -1.5: 53.1%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 1.2 - MIL 2.9
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.2 - MIL 2.9
F5 Win Prob: SD 19.3% - MIL 80.7% (Tie: 15.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +418 / MIL -418
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +166 +246 -8.7%
MIL ML -203 -246 +4.1%
SD +1.5 -132 +113 -10.0%
MIL -1.5 +110 -113 +5.5%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -6.4%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -9.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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