2026-10-04
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-04
Games: 2 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Season | October 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Michael King Home: Logan Henderson
ERA: 3.21 ERA: 2.47
WHIP: 1.18 WHIP: 0.84
K/9: 7.74 K/9: 10.07
BB/9: 3.41 BB/9: 1.74
FIP: 3.92 FIP: 3.29
IP: 185.0 IP: 98.3
xERA: 4.42 xERA: 2.74
xwOBA: 0.322 xwOBA: 0.257
Pitcher Edge: MIL (Logan Henderson)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat SD MIL Lg Avg
Record 91-71 103-59
R/Game 4.46 5.14 4.48
RA/Game 4.20 3.81 4.48
OPS 0.717 0.744 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.320 0.310
ERA 3.99 3.51 4.17
FIP 4.06 3.58 4.03
WHIP 1.29 1.18 1.30
K/9 8.24 9.61 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.527 0.633 0.500
Park Factor 99 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat SD MIL Lg Avg
BP ERA 2.79 3.47 4.22
BP FIP 2.98 3.61 4.05
BP WHIP 1.16 1.25
BP K/9 11.13 9.02
BP Quality* 34.4 40.7 46.1
BP IP 335.7 571.0
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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SD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
MIL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: American Family Field
Temperature: 66°F
Wind: 11 mph (gusts 19 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (66°F), wind out (11 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0328 (Temp: 0.9924 | Wind: 1.0406)
Impact: Scoring conditions (favors OVER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: SD 3.4 - MIL 4.6
Simulated Avg: SD 3.5 - MIL 4.6
Win Probability: SD 37.8% - MIL 62.2%
Fair Moneyline: SD +164 / MIL -164
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 7.0: 52.6%
Under 7.0: 37.4%
SD +1.5: 55.4%
MIL -1.5: 44.6%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: SD 1.7 - MIL 2.8
F5 Simulated Avg: SD 1.7 - MIL 2.8
F5 Win Prob: SD 32.2% - MIL 67.8% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: SD +211 / MIL -211
F5 Avg Total: 4.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
SD ML +114 +164 -8.9%
MIL ML -137 -164 +4.4%
SD +1.5 -197 -124 -10.9%
MIL -1.5 +161 +124 +6.3%
O 7.0 -110 N/A +0.2%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -15.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Regular Season | October 04, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Blake Snell
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat ATL LAD Lg Avg
Record 94-68 100-62
R/Game 4.58 4.94 4.48
RA/Game 3.86 3.70 4.48
OPS 0.718 0.762 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.327 0.310
ERA 3.63 3.55 4.17
FIP 4.00 3.54 4.03
WHIP 1.24 1.14 1.30
K/9 8.45 9.53 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.577 0.629 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat ATL LAD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.47 4.03 4.22
BP FIP 3.56 3.70 4.05
BP WHIP 1.19 1.28
BP K/9 9.07 9.88
BP Quality* 39.9 43.1 46.1
BP IP 440.7 448.3
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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ATL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
LAD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Dodger Stadium
Temperature: 89°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Hot (89°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0186 (Temp: 1.0249 | Wind: 0.9939)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: ATL 3.0 - LAD 4.7
Simulated Avg: ATL 3.0 - LAD 4.7
Win Probability: ATL 31.6% - LAD 68.5%
Fair Moneyline: ATL +217 / LAD -217
Avg Total Runs: 7.7
Over 7.0: 49.5%
Under 7.0: 40.6%
ATL +1.5: 49.2%
LAD -1.5: 50.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: ATL 1.2 - LAD 2.7
F5 Simulated Avg: ATL 1.2 - LAD 2.7
F5 Win Prob: ATL 22.6% - LAD 77.4% (Tie: 16.6%)
F5 Fair ML: ATL +342 / LAD -342
F5 Avg Total: 4.0
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
ATL ML +130 +217 -11.9%
LAD ML -157 -217 +7.4%
ATL +1.5 -175 +103 -14.4%
LAD -1.5 +144 -103 +9.8%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -2.9%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -11.8%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (Run Line) [+144]
Model: 50.8% | Market: 41.0% | Edge: 9.8%
Fair ML: -103 | Kelly: 4.15%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01231