2026-10-05
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-05
Games: 2 | Plays: 0
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | October 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Anthony Kay Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 4.44 ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.37 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 7.35 K/9: 12.11
BB/9: 3.19 BB/9: 2.98
FIP: 4.26 FIP: 3.38
IP: 158.0 IP: 184.3
xERA: 5.05 xERA: 3.84
xwOBA: 0.342 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: CLE (Gavin Williams)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
Record 84-78 85-77
R/Game 4.79 4.19 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 4.12 4.48
OPS 0.726 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.12 3.77 4.17
FIP 4.06 3.66 4.03
WHIP 1.31 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.35 9.58 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.534 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.03 3.61 4.22
BP FIP 4.32 3.53 4.05
BP WHIP 1.31 1.27
BP K/9 8.40 9.94
BP Quality* 46.6 40.8 46.1
BP IP 290.3 540.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 59°F
Wind: 9 mph (gusts 14 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (59°F), wind out (9 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0235 (Temp: 0.9848 | Wind: 1.0394)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CWS 4.1 - CLE 4.5
Simulated Avg: CWS 4.1 - CLE 4.5
Win Probability: CWS 45.7% - CLE 54.3%
Fair Moneyline: CWS +119 / CLE -119
Avg Total Runs: 8.6
Over 6.5: 66.3%
Under 6.5: 33.7%
CWS +1.5: 62.6%
CLE -1.5: 37.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CWS 2.3 - CLE 2.6
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.3 - CLE 2.6
F5 Win Prob: CWS 45.2% - CLE 54.8% (Tie: 16.2%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS +121 / CLE -121
F5 Avg Total: 4.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CWS ML +123 +119 +0.8%
CLE ML -149 -119 -5.5%
CWS +1.5 -191 -168 -3.0%
CLE -1.5 +157 +168 -1.6%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +13.9%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -18.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
HIGHER MODEL CONFIDENCE (10%+ edge signals)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
[HMC] Over 6.5 (Total (High Edge)) | ML: -110 | Edge: 13.9%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01232
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
Regular Season | October 05, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Cam Schlittler Home: Freddy Peralta
ERA: 1.95 ERA: 4.42
WHIP: 0.92 WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 11.11 K/9: 8.31
BB/9: 2.28 BB/9: 3.36
FIP: 2.46 FIP: 4.14
IP: 193.7 IP: 169.0
xERA: 2.85 xERA: 3.84
xwOBA: 0.262 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Cam Schlittler)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY TB Lg Avg
Record 93-68 98-64
R/Game 4.59 4.54 4.48
RA/Game 3.73 4.01 4.48
OPS 0.720 0.728 0.719
wOBA 0.309 0.312 0.310
ERA 3.23 3.70 4.17
FIP 3.59 3.93 4.03
WHIP 1.17 1.14 1.30
K/9 9.05 8.25 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.593 0.557 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat NYY TB Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.27 3.63 4.22
BP FIP 4.03 3.88 4.05
BP WHIP 1.24 1.15
BP K/9 8.20 8.78
BP Quality* 42.0 41.6 46.1
BP IP 573.0 486.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
NYY (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
TB (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Tropicana Field
Environment: Dome (climate controlled)
Weather Factor: 1.0000 (neutral)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: NYY 4.1 - TB 3.2
Simulated Avg: NYY 4.1 - TB 3.2
Win Probability: NYY 59.9% - TB 40.1%
Fair Moneyline: NYY -149 / TB +149
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 6.5: 55.4%
Under 6.5: 44.6%
NYY -1.5: 41.5%
TB +1.5: 58.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: NYY 2.4 - TB 1.4
F5 Simulated Avg: NYY 2.4 - TB 1.4
F5 Win Prob: NYY 68.3% - TB 31.7% (Tie: 18.7%)
F5 Fair ML: NYY -216 / TB +216
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
NYY ML -127 -149 +3.9%
TB ML +105 +149 -8.7%
NYY -1.5 +142 +141 +0.2%
TB +1.5 -172 -141 -4.7%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +3.0%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -7.7%
================================================================
RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
================================================================