2026-10-06
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-06
Games: 2 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | October 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Home: Chris Sale
ERA: 2.53 ERA: 2.16
WHIP: 0.87 WHIP: 0.98
K/9: 8.85 K/9: 11.07
BB/9: 2.04 BB/9: 1.72
FIP: 3.22 FIP: 2.01
IP: 185.0 IP: 162.7
xERA: 2.94 xERA: 2.97
xwOBA: 0.266 xwOBA: 0.267
Pitcher Edge: ATL (Chris Sale)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD ATL Lg Avg
Record 100-62 94-68
R/Game 4.94 4.58 4.48
RA/Game 3.70 3.86 4.48
OPS 0.762 0.718 0.719
wOBA 0.327 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.55 3.63 4.17
FIP 3.54 4.00 4.03
WHIP 1.14 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.53 8.45 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.629 0.577 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.03 3.47 4.22
BP FIP 3.70 3.56 4.05
BP WHIP 1.28 1.19
BP K/9 9.88 9.07
BP Quality* 43.1 39.9 46.1
BP IP 448.3 440.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 70°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 10 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (70°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0120 (Temp: 0.9972 | Wind: 1.0148)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 3.5 - ATL 3.9
Simulated Avg: LAD 3.5 - ATL 3.9
Win Probability: LAD 45.1% - ATL 54.9%
Fair Moneyline: LAD +122 / ATL -122
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 6.5: 55.6%
Under 6.5: 44.4%
LAD -1.5: 27.5%
ATL +1.5: 72.5%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 1.6 - ATL 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 1.6 - ATL 1.9
F5 Win Prob: LAD 44.4% - ATL 55.6% (Tie: 20.5%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD +125 / ATL -125
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -109 +122 -7.0%
ATL ML -110 -122 +2.5%
LAD -1.5 +161 +264 -10.9%
ATL +1.5 -196 -264 +6.3%
O 6.5 -110 N/A +3.2%
U 6.5 -110 N/A -8.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | October 06, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Dustin May Home: Nick Pivetta
ERA: 4.7 ERA: 2.86
WHIP: 1.32 WHIP: 1.01
K/9: 8.9 K/9: 10.9
BB/9: 3.09 BB/9: 2.08
FIP: 3.4 FIP: 2.12
IP: 145.7 IP: 34.7
xERA: 4.45 xERA: 3.2
xwOBA: 0.323 xwOBA: 0.277
Pitcher Edge: SD (Nick Pivetta)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL SD Lg Avg
Record 103-59 91-71
R/Game 5.14 4.46 4.48
RA/Game 3.81 4.20 4.48
OPS 0.744 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.320 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.51 3.99 4.17
FIP 3.58 4.06 4.03
WHIP 1.18 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.61 8.24 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.633 0.527 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.47 2.79 4.22
BP FIP 3.61 2.98 4.05
BP WHIP 1.25 1.16
BP K/9 9.02 11.13
BP Quality* 40.7 34.4 46.1
BP IP 571.0 335.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 81°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 1%
Conditions: Warm (81°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0255 (Temp: 1.0138 | Wind: 1.0115)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 3.4 - SD 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIL 3.4 - SD 4.2
Win Probability: MIL 40.4% - SD 59.6%
Fair Moneyline: MIL +148 / SD -148
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.5: 48.1%
Under 7.5: 51.9%
MIL +1.5: 58.8%
SD -1.5: 41.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 1.8 - SD 2.4
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 1.8 - SD 2.4
F5 Win Prob: MIL 39.0% - SD 61.0% (Tie: 18.0%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL +156 / SD -156
F5 Avg Total: 4.2
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML +114 +148 -6.4%
SD ML -138 -148 +1.6%
MIL +1.5 -193 -143 -7.1%
SD -1.5 +158 +143 +2.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -0.5%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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