2026-10-07
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-07
Games: 4 | Plays: 1
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | October 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Daniel Espino Home: Sean Newcomb
ERA: 4.11 ERA: 3.09
WHIP: 1.24 WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 14.67 K/9: 8.37
BB/9: 4.11 BB/9: 3.39
FIP: 3.75 FIP: 2.94
IP: 15.3 IP: 90.3
xERA: 2.9 xERA: 4.27
xwOBA: 0.264 xwOBA: 0.317
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Sean Newcomb)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
Record 85-77 84-78
R/Game 4.19 4.79 4.48
RA/Game 4.12 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.696 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.313 0.310
ERA 3.77 4.12 4.17
FIP 3.66 4.06 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.31 1.30
K/9 9.58 8.35 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.534 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.61 4.03 4.22
BP FIP 3.53 4.32 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.31
BP K/9 9.94 8.40
BP Quality* 40.8 46.6 46.1
BP IP 540.7 290.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 16 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9889 (Temp: 1.0021 | Wind: 0.9869)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CLE 3.7 - CWS 4.4
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.6 - CWS 4.4
Win Probability: CLE 41.7% - CWS 58.3%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +140 / CWS -140
Avg Total Runs: 8.1
Over 8.0: 42.6%
Under 8.0: 47.6%
CLE -1.5: 25.9%
CWS +1.5: 74.2%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CLE 1.9 - CWS 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.9 - CWS 2.5
F5 Win Prob: CLE 38.9% - CWS 61.1% (Tie: 17.7%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +157 / CWS -157
F5 Avg Total: 4.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CLE ML -102 +140 -8.8%
CWS ML -118 -140 +4.1%
CLE -1.5 +161 +287 -12.5%
CWS +1.5 -196 -287 +7.9%
O 8.0 -110 N/A -9.7%
U 8.0 -110 N/A -4.8%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
Regular Season | October 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Tyler Glasnow Home: Tyler Mahle
ERA: 3.53 ERA: 3.99
WHIP: 0.95 WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 11.92 K/9: 8.28
BB/9: 3.04 BB/9: 2.78
FIP: 2.69 FIP: 3.93
IP: 74.0 IP: 149.0
xERA: 2.88 xERA: 3.95
xwOBA: 0.263 xwOBA: 0.306
Pitcher Edge: LAD (Tyler Glasnow)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat LAD ATL Lg Avg
Record 100-62 94-68
R/Game 4.94 4.58 4.48
RA/Game 3.70 3.86 4.48
OPS 0.762 0.718 0.719
wOBA 0.327 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.55 3.63 4.17
FIP 3.54 4.00 4.03
WHIP 1.14 1.24 1.30
K/9 9.53 8.45 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.629 0.577 0.500
Park Factor 102 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat LAD ATL Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.03 3.47 4.22
BP FIP 3.70 3.56 4.05
BP WHIP 1.28 1.19
BP K/9 9.88 9.07
BP Quality* 43.1 39.9 46.1
BP IP 448.3 440.7
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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LAD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
ATL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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LAD (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
ATL (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Truist Park
Temperature: 73°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 5 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Mild (73°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0198 (Temp: 1.0009 | Wind: 1.0189)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: LAD 4.6 - ATL 3.9
Simulated Avg: LAD 4.6 - ATL 3.9
Win Probability: LAD 56.7% - ATL 43.3%
Fair Moneyline: LAD -131 / ATL +131
Avg Total Runs: 8.5
Over 7.5: 56.6%
Under 7.5: 43.4%
LAD -1.5: 40.2%
ATL +1.5: 59.8%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: LAD 2.7 - ATL 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: LAD 2.7 - ATL 1.9
F5 Win Prob: LAD 63.7% - ATL 36.3% (Tie: 16.5%)
F5 Fair ML: LAD -175 / ATL +175
F5 Avg Total: 4.6
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
LAD ML -155 -131 -4.1%
ATL ML +128 +131 -0.6%
LAD -1.5 +118 +149 -5.6%
ATL +1.5 -143 -149 +0.9%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +4.3%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -9.0%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
Regular Season | October 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Nick Martinez Home: Max Fried
ERA: 3.1 ERA: 2.8
WHIP: 1.09 WHIP: 0.99
K/9: 5.45 K/9: 8.31
BB/9: 1.3 BB/9: 2.64
FIP: 3.91 FIP: 2.59
IP: 180.0 IP: 112.7
xERA: 3.98 xERA: 2.51
xwOBA: 0.307 xwOBA: 0.246
Pitcher Edge: NYY (Max Fried)
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat TB NYY Lg Avg
Record 98-64 93-68
R/Game 4.54 4.59 4.48
RA/Game 4.01 3.73 4.48
OPS 0.728 0.720 0.719
wOBA 0.312 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.70 3.23 4.17
FIP 3.93 3.59 4.03
WHIP 1.14 1.17 1.30
K/9 8.25 9.05 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.557 0.593 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat TB NYY Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.63 3.27 4.22
BP FIP 3.88 4.03 4.05
BP WHIP 1.15 1.24
BP K/9 8.78 8.20
BP Quality* 41.6 42.0 46.1
BP IP 486.0 573.0
Bullpen Edge: Even
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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TB: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
NYY: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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TB (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
NYY (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Yankee Stadium
Temperature: 56°F
Wind: 6 mph (gusts 15 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Cool (56°F), light wind (6 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9699 (Temp: 0.9812 | Wind: 0.9885)
Impact: Suppressed scoring (favors UNDER)
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: TB 3.2 - NYY 4.1
Simulated Avg: TB 3.2 - NYY 4.1
Win Probability: TB 40.0% - NYY 60.0%
Fair Moneyline: TB +150 / NYY -150
Avg Total Runs: 7.3
Over 7.0: 44.5%
Under 7.0: 45.0%
TB +1.5: 58.7%
NYY -1.5: 41.3%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: TB 1.5 - NYY 2.2
F5 Simulated Avg: TB 1.5 - NYY 2.2
F5 Win Prob: TB 35.8% - NYY 64.2% (Tie: 19.0%)
F5 Fair ML: TB +180 / NYY -180
F5 Avg Total: 3.8
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
TB ML +138 +150 -2.0%
NYY ML -167 -150 -2.6%
TB +1.5 -164 -142 -3.5%
NYY -1.5 +136 +142 -1.0%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -7.9%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -7.4%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres
Regular Season | October 07, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: TBD Home: Walker Buehler
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat MIL SD Lg Avg
Record 103-59 91-71
R/Game 5.14 4.46 4.48
RA/Game 3.81 4.20 4.48
OPS 0.744 0.717 0.719
wOBA 0.320 0.309 0.310
ERA 3.51 3.99 4.17
FIP 3.58 4.06 4.03
WHIP 1.18 1.29 1.30
K/9 9.61 8.24 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.633 0.527 0.500
Park Factor 96 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat MIL SD Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.47 2.79 4.22
BP FIP 3.61 2.98 4.05
BP WHIP 1.25 1.16
BP K/9 9.02 11.13
BP Quality* 40.7 34.4 46.1
BP IP 571.0 335.7
Bullpen Edge: SD (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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MIL: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
SD: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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MIL (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
SD (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Petco Park
Temperature: 76°F
Wind: 5 mph (gusts 8 mph)
Precip Chance: 0%
Conditions: Warm (76°F), light wind (5 mph)
Weather Factor: 1.0215 (Temp: 1.0063 | Wind: 1.0151)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: MIL 4.6 - SD 4.2
Simulated Avg: MIL 4.6 - SD 4.2
Win Probability: MIL 53.1% - SD 46.9%
Fair Moneyline: MIL -113 / SD +113
Avg Total Runs: 8.8
Over 7.5: 59.6%
Under 7.5: 40.4%
MIL -1.5: 37.1%
SD +1.5: 62.9%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: MIL 2.9 - SD 2.5
F5 Simulated Avg: MIL 2.9 - SD 2.4
F5 Win Prob: MIL 57.1% - SD 42.9% (Tie: 15.1%)
F5 Fair ML: MIL -133 / SD +133
F5 Avg Total: 5.4
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
MIL ML -107 -113 +1.4%
SD ML -112 +113 -6.0%
MIL -1.5 +161 +169 -1.2%
SD +1.5 -197 -169 -3.4%
O 7.5 -110 N/A +7.2%
U 7.5 -110 N/A -11.9%
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QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
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[STANDARD EDGE] Over 7.5 (Total) [-110]
Model: 59.6% | Market: 52.4% | Edge: 7.2%
Fair ML: -147 | Kelly: 3.77%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01233