2026-10-08
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-08
Games: 1 | Plays: 1
======================================================================
====================================================================
GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
Regular Season | October 08, 2026
====================================================================
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Away: Parker Messick Home: Hagen Smith
ERA: 2.56 ERA: 1.29
WHIP: 1.06 WHIP: 0.96
K/9: 9.32 K/9: 13.18
BB/9: 2.37 BB/9: 5.14
FIP: 3.0 FIP: 2.35
IP: 186.3 IP: 28.0
xERA: 3.15 xERA: 2.45
xwOBA: 0.275 xwOBA: 0.243
Pitcher Edge: CWS (Hagen Smith)
TEAM COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
Record 85-77 84-78
R/Game 4.19 4.79 4.48
RA/Game 4.12 4.44 4.48
OPS 0.696 0.726 0.719
wOBA 0.302 0.313 0.310
ERA 3.77 4.12 4.17
FIP 3.66 4.06 4.03
WHIP 1.26 1.31 1.30
K/9 9.58 8.35 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.507 0.534 0.500
Park Factor 100 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stat CLE CWS Lg Avg
BP ERA 3.61 4.03 4.22
BP FIP 3.53 4.32 4.05
BP WHIP 1.27 1.31
BP K/9 9.94 8.40
BP Quality* 40.8 46.6 46.1
BP IP 540.7 290.3
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLE (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CWS (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stadium: Guaranteed Rate Field
Temperature: 58°F
Wind: 4 mph (gusts 4 mph)
Precip Chance: 2%
Conditions: Cool (58°F), light wind (4 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9797 (Temp: 0.9832 | Wind: 0.9965)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Expected Score: CLE 3.4 - CWS 3.7
Simulated Avg: CLE 3.4 - CWS 3.7
Win Probability: CLE 45.4% - CWS 54.6%
Fair Moneyline: CLE +120 / CWS -120
Avg Total Runs: 7.1
Over 7.0: 42.6%
Under 7.0: 47.0%
CLE -1.5: 27.6%
CWS +1.5: 72.4%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
----------------------------------------------------------------
F5 Expected: CLE 1.6 - CWS 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CLE 1.6 - CWS 1.9
F5 Win Prob: CLE 45.0% - CWS 55.0% (Tie: 20.8%)
F5 Fair ML: CLE +122 / CWS -122
F5 Avg Total: 3.5
MARKET COMPARISON
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Model Edge
CLE ML -120 +120 -9.1%
CWS ML +100 -120 +4.6%
CLE -1.5 +144 +263 -13.4%
CWS +1.5 -174 -263 +8.9%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -9.8%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -5.4%
================================================================
QUALIFYING PLAYS: 1 (1 Full Game + 0 F5)
================================================================
[STANDARD EDGE] Chicago White Sox +1.5 (Run Line) [-174]
Model: 72.4% | Market: 63.5% | Edge: 8.9%
Fair ML: -263 | Kelly: 6.11%
[Logged] Bet ID: MLB-01234