2026-10-10
Gemini 10K v2.2 -- Full Game Detail -- 2026-10-10
Games: 1 | Plays: 0
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GEMINI 10K v2.2 — MLB ANALYSIS
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Regular Season | October 10, 2026
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STARTING PITCHERS
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Away: Sean Burke Home: Gavin Williams
ERA: 3.34 ERA: 3.76
WHIP: 1.2 WHIP: 1.11
K/9: 9.66 K/9: 12.11
BB/9: 3.24 BB/9: 2.98
FIP: 3.47 FIP: 3.38
IP: 172.3 IP: 184.3
xERA: 3.78 xERA: 3.84
xwOBA: 0.3 xwOBA: 0.302
Pitcher Edge: Even
TEAM COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
Record 84-78 85-77
R/Game 4.79 4.19 4.48
RA/Game 4.44 4.12 4.48
OPS 0.726 0.696 0.719
wOBA 0.313 0.302 0.310
ERA 4.12 3.77 4.17
FIP 4.06 3.66 4.03
WHIP 1.31 1.26 1.30
K/9 8.35 9.58 8.50
Pythag Win% 0.534 0.507 0.500
Park Factor 97 100
BULLPEN COMPARISON
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Stat CWS CLE Lg Avg
BP ERA 4.03 3.61 4.22
BP FIP 4.32 3.53 4.05
BP WHIP 1.31 1.27
BP K/9 8.40 9.94
BP Quality* 46.6 40.8 46.1
BP IP 290.3 540.7
Bullpen Edge: CLE (lower quality score = better)
* Quality Score: 0-100 composite (lower = better). Weights: 40% FIP, 30% ERA, 20% WHIP, 10% K-BB
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY
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CWS: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
CLE: RESTED (penalty +0.0)
All relievers available
* Penalty added to BP Quality Score (higher = worse pen today)
LINEUP STATUS
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CWS (Away): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
CLE (Home): Lineup not yet posted (using full-strength estimate)
WEATHER CONDITIONS
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Stadium: Progressive Field
Temperature: 67°F
Wind: 10 mph (gusts 20 mph)
Precip Chance: 4%
Conditions: Mild (67°F), wind in (10 mph)
Weather Factor: 0.9804 (Temp: 0.9945 | Wind: 0.9859)
Impact: Minimal weather impact
FULL GAME SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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Expected Score: CWS 3.9 - CLE 3.7
Simulated Avg: CWS 3.9 - CLE 3.7
Win Probability: CWS 51.5% - CLE 48.4%
Fair Moneyline: CWS -106 / CLE +106
Avg Total Runs: 7.6
Over 7.0: 48.1%
Under 7.0: 41.5%
CWS +1.5: 69.3%
CLE -1.5: 30.7%
FIRST 5 INNINGS SIMULATION (50,000 iterations)
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F5 Expected: CWS 2.2 - CLE 1.9
F5 Simulated Avg: CWS 2.2 - CLE 1.9
F5 Win Prob: CWS 55.7% - CLE 44.3% (Tie: 18.5%)
F5 Fair ML: CWS -126 / CLE +126
F5 Avg Total: 4.1
MARKET COMPARISON
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Market Model Edge
CWS ML +118 -106 +5.7%
CLE ML -142 +106 -10.2%
CWS +1.5 -192 -226 +3.5%
CLE -1.5 +158 +226 -8.1%
O 7.0 -110 N/A -4.3%
U 7.0 -110 N/A -10.9%
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RESULT: PASS — No qualifying edge detected
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